The State of Energy Access and Key Lessons .1 The State of Energy Access .1 The State of Energy Access

The rate of electricity access in South Sudan is at 1%, the lowest in the Eastern Africa sub-region. The first power plant in South Sudan was initiated in 1936 (thermal) with a purpose of generating electricity to pump water and deliver electricity to British settlers. By 1956, with the independence of the Sudan, the electricity access condition in the South was still meager. The civil war left little investment in the power sector in South Sudan, which continues to pose structural constraint to socioeconomic functions in the country. Today, Central Equatorial (the city of Juba), Western Bahr Al Gazal (the city of Wau) and Upper Nile State (the city of Malakal) have some level of electricity, but the rest of the country is without, or if at all negligible, electricity access (see Table 15).

Table 15: Installed electricity capacity by year (2005-2010) and State, South Sudan.

State

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Capitals 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Juba 5 MW 10 MW 5 MW 5 MW 17 MW 17 MW

Malakal 2.8 MW 2.8 MW 2.8 MW 2.8 MW 4.8 MW 4.8 MW

Wau 1.6 MW 1.6 MW 1.6 MW 1.6 MW 3.6 MW 3.6 MW

Bor 0 0 0 0 0 2 MW

Yambio 0 0 0 0 0 2 MW

Rumbek 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kuajok 0 0 0 0 0 0

Torit 0 0 0 0 0 0

Aweil 0 0 0 0 0 0

Bentiu 0 0 4 MW 4 MW 4 MW 4 MW

Total 9.4 MW 14.4 MW 13.4 MW 13.4 MW 29.4 MW 33.4 MW

Source: South Sudan Energy Sector Needs Assessment Study.

During the six years transitional period before the referendum, 5 MW thermal capacity was added to Juba (2005), doubled to 10 MW (2006), but 50% capacity lost in 2007 and 2008. Investment in 2009 saw capacity for Juba expanded to 17 MW, continuing through 2010 though since then some capacity on some of the installed generators has been lost. The capacity for Malakal was 2.6 MW from 2005 – 2008, which saw capacity increased to 4.8 MW during 2009-2010. In Wau, the installed capacity remained at 1.6 MW from 2005-2008, and saw capacity expansion in 2009 to 3.6 MW. Out of the ten State capitals, 3 have basic access to electricity, and 3 more are planned. As a result, the current generation portfolio in South Sudan is entirely thermal power. There are plans to add 2 MW capacity in Rumbeck (Lake State), 2 MW in Bor (Jongole State), 2 MW in Yambio (Western Equatorial State) and 1 MW combined capacity small scale projects in Maredi, Capueta and Yeia towns, financed by USAID. The South Sudan Development Plan (SSDP) foresees the expansion of Juba capacity to 40MW, and 5 MW to each State capital, along with distribution network expansion. All plans are under thermal generation.

The Government is considering power import from the Ethiopian grid, in the short – term for Malakal, projected to be 50 MW, within 3 years. The possibility of utilizing crude oil for thermal generation is also in consideration, likely to enter the generation portfolio in the short-term with the resumption of crude oil production in South Sudan oil fields. The country also has an ambitious long-term plan to develop three hydroelectric plants along the Nile (see Fig. 69). The first, Fula project, some 30-35 kms from the Ugandan boarder, has the capacity to generate 890 MW, which will be a massive increase, compared to current consumption levels. The second project, Shukoli, is 40-45 kms from the Ugandan boarder, has the capacity to generate 230 MW. The third, Lakki project, has 410 MW capacity. If the development of these hydroelectric projects become a reality, they will bring significant improvement to the current capacity, from a clean energy resource. These hydroelectric projects on a trans-boundary river, the Nile, are likely to face challenges from upstream

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countries of the Sudan and Egypt. For further discussion of developing trans-boundary water resources for hydroeclectric generation and governance challenges, see related chapter in this report.

Figure 69: Planned hydropower generation of South Sudan.

Source: Ministry of Electricity and Dams, 2012.

It is clear that there is vast need to expand access to electricity to meet current demand. Assessment of demand and supply conditions in all state capitals revealed that a serious power deficiency exists in all 10 State capitals. The gap is largest in the three main state capitals of Juba, Malagal and Wau (see Table 16). Juba needs an immediate relief with supply of up to 40 MW power, and 12 MW in Malakal and 13 in Wau. The gap in most of the remaining state cities is assessed at 2 MW. With population growth and the demand from economic expansion, the power deficiency is likely to remain a structural problem, calling for immediate expansion of capacity either through boosting domestic generation, and/or electricity imports.

Table 16: Supply and demand condition in the power sector of South Sudan.

State Capitals Current supply MW

Current demand MW

Suppress demand MW

Juba 10 50 40

Malakal 3 15 12

Wau 2 15 13

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Bor 2 2 0

Yambio 0 2 2

Rumbek 0 2 2

Kuajok 0 2 2

Torit 0 2 2

Aweil 0 2 2

Bentiu 3 5 2

Source: South Sudan Energy Sector Needs Assessment Study.

Installed capacity upgrade investment plans are already in the works to install power in excess of current demand. The plan would see power supply at par with demand in Juba (with 40 MW expansion plan), 15 MW each in Malakal and Wau, and a planned 5 MW expansion in each of the state capitals (see Table 17), along with distribution network and network reinforcement investments.

Table 17: Short-term investment programmes.

State Capitals Generation Distribution Network Reinf.

Juba 40 MW - 45 km, 33kv and

30 km, 11kv

Malakal 15 MW - 45 km, 33kv

30 km, 11kv

Wau 15 MW - 45 km, 33kv and

30 km , 11kv

Bor 5 MW 30 km, 11 kv and 60

km, 0.415 kv

Yambio 5 MW 30 km, 11 kv and

60 km, 0.415 kv

Rumbek 5 MW 30 km, 11 kv and

60 km, 0.415 kv

Kuajok 5 MW 32 km, 11 kv and

40 km, 0.415 kv

Torit 5 MW 32 km, 11kv and

40 km, 0.415 kv

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Aweil 5 MW 32 km, 11kv and

40 km, 0.415 kv

Bentiu 5 MW 32 km , 11kv and

40 km, 0.415 kv

Source: South Sudan Energy Sector Needs Assessment Study.

Table 18: Number of connected customers in South Sudan state capitals: 2005-2010.

State capitals 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Source: South Sudan Energy Sector Needs Assessment Study.

These investments will help relieve short-term demand pressure, and ensure increased access to electricity, but the challenge of expanding connections nation-wide, including rural electrification, from the current meager level (see Table 18) to a much enhanced state will remain to be a major challenge and constraint to economic revival of South Sudan. Large-scale investment ventures in the country face the prospect of self-generation, at least in the short-term, but integration of planned capacities can alleviate such constraints in the medium- to long-term.

4.1.3.2 Energy Access – Lessons from South Sudan

The new state of South Sudan offers lessons on energy access expansion. With limited energy development, but significant potential, investment and socioeconomic development in the country has met energy constraint. The following are lessons from South Sudan case:

 Energy shortages and deficiencies will trigger an “all of the above” strategy to energy development: electricity access in South Sudan is at 1%, and there are high expectations among the citizenry of an independent State to see economic development. High

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expectations and low energy development seem to have encouraged policymakers to adopt the development of all energy sources in the country, including the burning of crude oil to generate electricity. Prioritization of green energy development has met the reality of need to expand capacity massively. Confronted with this challenge, a hydroelectric and other renewable sources are in play, but there is serious consideration to bring forth crude oil powered power plants that utilize indigenous resource. This lesson is transferable to the sub-region where lack of energy planning and development for decades has left an energy deficit that can induce a generation portfolio choice that is more flexible and can be put in place quickly – thus the preference for thermal generators. Without proper energy sector planning, future energy portfolios may not be characterized by the abundant energy potential of the region – green energy.

 Sub-regional energy trade can offer relief and affordable energy supply: expanding energy access in South Sudan, form the current 1% level, based solely on domestic capacity development, will take time. This recognition and the need for immediately availability of electricity to fuel development in the country has led policymakers to consider energy trade, with Ethiopia. A Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) is now reached between Ethiopia and South Sudan to supply initially 50 MW of power to Malakal, with long-term plans of 100 MW, potentially extending to Juba. Energy trade, and its potential to bring low cost energy, is a realistic possibility.

 Institutions and domestic financial mobilization do matter: South Sudan has engaged the energy sector through putting in place institutions to regulate and develop the sector.

Aspects of generation, transmission and distribution are legally delineated, and institutionally overseen, and no power generation and sale can take place without licensing. While these are necessary steps for a new State. There are challenges with administration of rate revenues (where not all of it is available back to the energy sector), and not all energy consumers do pay for services. These indicate the need for strengthened energy sector institutions and enforcement of laws. However, the setting up of the Rural Electrification Fund, through appropriations and levy on bulk power purchase (and grants and loans) will put focus to access expansion in rural areas. The willingness of the State to devote budgetary and tax resources to fund rural electrification is a strategy that wqill induce expanded rural electricity access. These lessons highlight the importance of strengthened energy sector institutions, enforcement of the law and political willingness to mobilize domestic resources for expanded energy access.

 Within a massive power deficiency system, off-grid energy solutions offer real choice: the existing level of meagre energy development in South Sudan necessitated no national grid system, and existing lines are not significant in length. This posed the challenge of developing a massive electricity grid network for the country, or pursuing a mix of improved grids with decentralized power systems. South Sudan adopted the second strategy, at least for the short- to medium-range, to develop power in State capitals and rural areas with isolated grids. The long-term plan foresees interconnecting mini grid systems. The lesson from this experience is that when energy access levels are low, as they are in most of the sub-region, and the national grid rich is limited, off-grid energy access options offer a compelling alternative.

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 Private sector engagement in the transmission and distribution business will face a hurdle:

the Electricity Bill and the national energy policy paper clearly indicate that power generation, transmission and distribution are in the domain of the public sector, though private sector intervention is invited in power generation. South Sudan clearly asserts, through legislation, that energy infrastructure is regarded as a critical strategic asset of national importance, and will be the asset of the Government of South Sudan, administered by the SSEC. The invitation of the private sector in generation is potentially beneficial policy, but private public partnerships in the transmission and distribution aspects of the energy sector require broader sub-regional experience sharing and policy dialogue.

4.1.4 The State of Energy Security and Key Lessons