The Energy Access Challenge in Africa and the Eastern Africa sub-Region

Africa is a transforming continent, featuring favorable GDP growth rates the last decade, and increasing pace in recent years. The global recession was largely believed to have slowed down Africa’s economic performance, but the continent remained resilient, with forecasted growth of 5-7% between 2012 and 2015. The infamous declaration of Africa as the hopeless continent by the Economist magazine is replaced in recent issues as hopeful with bullish economic prospects. IMF (2012) report on Regional Economic Outlook in Africa indicates asserts that growth in sub-Saharan Africa in 2012 continues at a solid pace, anticipating growth rates of 51/4 in both 2012 and 2013. Supporting the economic progress in Africa will require, among others, addressing the structural constraint energy poses to the economies of Africa.

The energy sector constraint, as discussed in the global overview, is more prominent in Africa. In sub-Saharan Africa, access to electricity is around 30% (WEO, 2011), but with significant disparity between urban (89%) and rural (46%) areas (WHO, UNDP, 2009). The focus on sub-Saharan Africa separately in discussing the energy challenge is largely due to better access rates in Northern Africa. Access rates in the Northern African countries (see Fig. 4) of Morocco (97%), Algeria (99%), Tunisia (100), Egypt (100) and Libya (100%) attests the structural nature of the energy access problem in Africa, thus the focus on sub-Saharan Africa.

The limited biomass resources in Northern Africa, favorable policy environment, level of economic development, climatic conditions and endowment of vast energy resources may explain the disparity in achieved energy access levels, and the type of energy portfolio chosen.

DCs

5

Figure 4 : Electricity access rate in high-performing African countries.

Source: Based on data from World Energy Outlook, 2010.

Access to modern energy for household cooking is also limited in Africa, with unsustainably large and growing population directly relying on biomass. An estimated 657 million people (65%) in Africa rely on biomass for cooking, about 74% in sub-Saharan Africa, and only 3% in Northern Africa (see Table 1). Eastern African countries of D.R. Congo, Tanzania and Ethiopia have population biomass reliance in excess of 90%. In comparison with the developing Asian countries (54%), Latin American countries (19%) and the Middle East (0%), reliance on biomass is still quite high. Africa thus represents the most significant challenge to addressing the global energy access problem.

Table 1: Number and share of people relying on traditional biomass, 2009.

Relying on traditional use of biomass for cooking

Population (million) Share of Population

Africa 657 65%

Nigeria 104 67%

Ethiopia 77 93%

D.R. Congo 62 94%

Tanzania 41 94%

Kenya 33 83%

Other sub-Saharan Africa 335 74%

North Africa 4 3%

Developing Asia 1,921 54%

Latin America 85 19%

95.5 96.0 96.5 97.0 97.5 98.0 98.5 99.0 99.5 100.0

Morocco Algeria Tunisia Egypt Libya

6

Middle East 0 0%

Developing Countries 2,662 51%

Source: World Energy Outlook, 2011.

If sub-Saharan Africa poses a formidable challenge to solving the energy access problem, Eastern Africa is a particular concern. Electricity access rate ranges from just 1% in the new state of South Sudan (leaving 9.3 million people without access), to 9% in Uganda (leaving more than 28 million people without access), 11% in D.R. Congo (leaving nearly 59 million people without access), 13.9% in Tanzania (leaving nearly 38 million people without access), 16.1% in Kenya (leaving more than 33 million people without access) and 17% in Ethiopia (leaving nearly 69 million people without access) (see Table 2).

While these access numbers can be comparable with some African countries, such as Malawi (9%) and Zambia (18.8%), they trail behind Zimbabwe, Senegal, Botswana, Cote dÍvoire, Cameroon, Nigeria, Ghana and Mauritius where access rates are above 40%. Eastern African countries also under-perform in energy access (at around 23%) compared with the sub-Saharan average of 30.5%. The limited development of vast clean energy resources in the region, energy infrastructure inadequacy, limited investment in generation capacity for a prolonged time, low income levels² and energy policy reform and market organization may explain the peculiarly low levels of energy access in the region. If urgent solutions to rapid expansion of energy access are globally needed, they are particular timely in the Eastern Africa sub-region.

Table 2: Energy access rates in select countries in Eastern and sub-Saharan Africa.

Country Electrification

Select Eastern Africa Countries Angola 26.2 13.7

South Sudan 1 9.3 Namibia 34.0 1.4

Select Sub-Saharan Africa Countries Cameroon 48.7 10.0

Malawi 9.0 12.7 Nigeria 50.6 76.4

Burkina Faso 14.6 12.6 Ghana 60.5 9.4

Lesotho 16.0 1.7 Mauritius 99.4 0.0

2 The low levels of sub-regional income are reflected in the 2011 World Bank reported per capita incomes of $274 for Burundi, $230 for D.R. Congo, $374 for Ethiopia, $482 for Eritrea, $466 for Madagascar, $487 for Uganda and $529 for Tanzania. Urban residents are often better connected (and have better access rate to electricity) than rural residents partly due to better urban incomes, and hence effective demand.

7

Zambia 18.8 10.5

Benin 24.8 6.7 Sub-Sahara 30.5 585.2

Source: Adapted from WEO data, 2011.

Comparison of energy access in Eastern Africa with other regions can put the picture in perspective. Particularly, comparison with access rates in Middle Income countries of over 80%

(see Fig. 5) is note worthy, as one central goal in the economic development agenda in Eastern African countries is the transition to Middle Income status. There is ample optimism as economic growth in Eastern African member States demonstrated strong performance, bringing Middle Income status within policy sight. If energy development does not take a rapid pace, this economic agenda will like face an energy road block.

Figure 5: Comparison of electricity access in Eastern Africa with other regions.

Source: Based on data from World Energy Outlook, 2010.

The sources of energy production and energy consumed in Eastern Africa have similar structural composition as in most developing countries – excessive reliance on biomass as a source of energy. Biomass supports 60-70% of the energy production and consumption in Kenya and Eritrea, and above 80-90% in most Eastern Africa member States (see Fig. 6).

Electricity and other forms of modern energy sources are relatively minimally utilized. The reliance on biomass is high in countries with both vast forest resource endowment (such as D.R.

Congo) and scarce forest resources (such as Ethiopia).

Figure 6: Sources of energy in energy production (panel 1) and consumption (panel 2) in select countries in Eastern Africa.

0 20 40 60 80 100

Low Income Countries

HIPC Countries

Eastern Africa Sub-Saharan Africa

World Middle income

Arab World

8

Source: Based on UN Statistics, Energy Balances and Electricity Profiles, 2009.

It is worth to note that in countries with relatively lower levels of biomass dependence, biomass energy is displaced with relatively more thermal sources of energy than electricity, demonstrated by strong thermal responses in Kenya and Eritrea. This has energy security implications, as thermal sources of energy are largely imported to the Eastern Africa sub-region.

The energy security context is a topic that will be discussed in later sections.

A growing concern for continuing dependence on biomass for energy, with limited transition to modern energy sources, is the unsustainability of the status quo. The demand for wood in the Eastern Africa sub-region is increasing, with declining resource base. Comparison of demand and supply conditions in the sub-region (see Fig. 7) demonstrates that much of the region is either in light or high deficit, particularly in urban areas. This complicates the solution to the energy problem, requiring a fast move to energy transition while sustainably managing the biomass resources of the sub-region.

Figure 7: Firewood demand and supply condition in Eastern Africa.

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Kenya Eritrea Madagascar Tanzania Uganda Ethiopia DR Congo Burundi

Biomass Electricity Thermal

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Kenya Eritrea Madagascar Rwanda Uganda Tanzania Ethiopia DR Congo Burundi

Biomass Electricity Thermal

9

Source: FAO. 2006. Woodfuel Integrated Supply/Demand Overview Mapping Methodology: Spatial Woodfuel Production and Consumption Analysis of Selected African Countries.

Note: Data not available for Ethiopia, Djibouti and Madagascar in the FAO study.