RAPPORT SUR LE COMMERCE ET LE DÉVELOPPEMENT, 2016

La transformation structurelle au service d’une croissance

équitable et soutenue

RAPPORT SUR LE COMMERCE

ET LE DÉVELOPPEMENT, 2016

ET LE DÉVELOPPEMENT GENÈVE

RAPPORT SUR LE COMMERCE ET LE DÉVELOPPEMENT, 2016

Rapport établi par le secrétariat de la Conférence des Nations Unies sur le commerce et le développement

NATIONS UNIES New York et Genève, 2016

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sur le commerce et le développement en 1981

Table des matières

Page

Notes explicatives ...xiii

Sigles et abréviations ...xv

APERCU GÉNÉRAL ...I–XVIII Chapitre I TENDANCES ET DÉFIS ACTUELS DE L’ÉCONOMIE MONDIALE ... 1

A. L’année de tous les dangers ...1

B. Les tendances récentes de l’économie mondiale ...4

eYROXWLRQGHODFURLVVDQFH ...4

&RPPHUFHLQWHUQDWLRQDO ...9

eYROXWLRQUpFHQWHGHVPDUFKpVGHVSURGXLWVGHEDVH ...12

)OX[LQWHUQDWLRQDX[GHFDSLWDX[YHUVOHVSD\VHQGpYHORSSHPHQW ...16

C. Le ralentissement du commerce mondial ...19

2EVHUYDWLRQVSUpOLPLQDLUHVVXUOHVFDXVHVGXUDOHQWLVVHPHQWGXFRPPHUFH ...20

&RPPHUFHPRQGLDOHWUpVHDX[GHSURGXFWLRQLQWHUQDWLRQDX[ ...22

5pVXPpHWFRQVpTXHQFHVSRXUOHVSHUVSHFWLYHVPRQGLDOHV ...26

Notes ...30

Bibliographie...32

Chapitre II MONDIALISATION, CONVERGENCE ETTRANSFORMATION STRUCTURELLE ...35

A. Introduction ... 35

B. Mondialisation et convergence ... 37

C. Transformation structurelle : liaisons manquantes ... 49

D. L’environnement mondial est-il favorable ?... 53

E. Conclusions ... 57

Notes ... 59

Bibliographie ... 60

Page

Chapitre III

LE DÉFI DU RATTRAPAGE ÉCONOMIQUE : INDUSTRIALISATION

ET CHANGEMENT STRUCTUREL ... 65

A. Introduction ... 65

B. Les arguments en faveur du développement des industries manufacturières ... 66

$YDQWDJHVGHO¶DFWLYLWpPDQXIDFWXULqUH... 66

/LDLVRQVHQPDWLqUHGHFRQQDLVVDQFHVHWFURLVVDQFHGHODSURGXFWLYLWp ... 68

C. Tendances des changements structurels depuis 1970 ... 70

7HQGDQFHVjORQJWHUPH ... 70

,QFLGHQFHGXFKDQJHPHQWVWUXFWXUHOHWGHO¶LQYHVWLVVHPHQWVXUODSURGXFWLYLWpJOREDOH ... 76

D. Industrialisation réussie, industrialisation en panne et désindustrialisation précoce ... 86

,QGXVWULDOLVDWLRQGHUDWWUDSDJH ... 86

,QGXVWULDOLVDWLRQHQSDQQH ... 88

'pVLQGXVWULDOLVDWLRQSUpFRFH ... 92

E. Comment mettre les secteurs primaire et tertiaire au service de la transformation structurelle ...94

5{OHGXVHFWHXUSULPDLUHGDQVOHFKDQJHPHQWVWUXFWXUHO ... 94

&RPPHQWXWLOLVHUOHVUHFHWWHVSURYHQDQWGHVH[SRUWDWLRQVGHSURGXLWVGHEDVHSRXUSURPRXYRLU la transformation structurelle ... 95

5{OHGHVVHUYLFHVGDQVODWUDQVIRUPDWLRQVWUXFWXUHOOH ... 97

F. Conclusions ... 101

Notes ... 102

Bibliographie ... 104

Chapitre IV UN NOUVEAU REGARD SUR LE RÔLE DU COMMERCE DE PRODUITS MANUFACTURÉS DANS L’INDUSTRIALISATION ... 109

A. Introduction ... 109

B. Un cadre préliminaire... 110

C. Tendances régionales du commerce international ... 114

7HQGDQFHVJpQpUDOHV ... 114

&RPPHUFHG¶DUWLFOHVPDQXIDFWXUpV ... 119

D. Transformation structurelle, croissance de la productivité et commerce ... 124

&RPPHUFHGHSURGXLWVPDQXIDFWXUpVYDOHXUDMRXWpHHWWUDQVIRUPDWLRQVWUXFWXUHOOH ... 124

&URLVVDQFHGHODSURGXFWLYLWpGXWUDYDLOHWFRPPHUFHG¶DUWLFOHVPDQXIDFWXUpV ... 126

'HJUpG¶pODERUDWLRQHWGHGLYHUVL¿FDWLRQGHVSURGXLWVH[SRUWpV ... 129

Page

E. Chaînes de valeur mondiales, modernisation de l’industrie et transformation structurelle ... 133

F. Parité hommes-femmes, industrialisation, commerce et emploi ... 137

6WUDWpJLHVD[pHVVXUO¶H[SRUWDWLRQHWHPSORLGHVIHPPHV... 138

eODVWLFLWpGHO¶HPSORLSDUUDSSRUWDX[DFWLYLWpVPDQXIDFWXULqUHVD[pHVVXUO¶H[SRUWDWLRQ ... 140

G. La capacité d’agir sur les prix : hier et demain ... 145

H. Conclusions ... 149

Notes ... 151

Bibliographie ... 153

Chapitre V BÉNÉFICES, INVESTISSEMENTS ET CHANGEMENT STRUCTUREL ... 157

A. Introduction ... 157

B. 1RXYHDXUHJDUGVXUOHFRXSOHEpQp¿FHVLQYHVWLVVHPHQWV ... 159

C. /HVVWUDWpJLHVGHVHQWUHSULVHVUHFHQWUDJHHW¿QDQFLDULVDWLRQ... 165

D. L’investissement des entreprises dans les pays en développement ... 169

'HVFRQGLWLRQVPDFURpFRQRPLTXHVGLI¿FLOHVSRXUO¶LQYHVWLVVHPHQWSULYp... 171

7HQGDQFHVPLFURpFRQRPLTXHVOD¿QDQFLDULVDWLRQGHVHQWUHSULVHVGHVSD\VHQGpYHORSSHPHQW DWHOOHFRPPHQFp" ... 175

7UDQVIRUPDWLRQVWUXFWXUHOOHHW¿QDQFHPHQWGHO¶LQYHVWLVVHPHQWWHQGDQFHVVHFWRULHOOHV GHO¶LQYHVWLVVHPHQW¿QDQFLDULVp ... 180

E. Comment relancer l’investissement dans les pays en développement ... 183

&RPPHQWUHPpGLHUjO¶LQVWDELOLWp¿QDQFLqUHPRQGLDOHHWjOD¿QDQFLDULVDWLRQGXVHFWHXU des entreprises ... 183

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&RPPHQWOXWWHUFRQWUHO¶pYDVLRQHWODIUDXGH¿VFDOHVHWFRQWUHODIXLWHGHVFDSLWDX[ ... 188

F. Conclusions ... 190

Notes ... 192

Bibliographie ... 194

Page

Chapitre VI

RETOUR À LA POLITIQUE INDUSTRIELLE... 197

A. Introduction ... 197

B. Une réévaluation du champ de la politique industrielle... 198

/DORQJXHKLVWRLUHGHODWUDQVIRUPDWLRQVWUXFWXUHOOHVRXVO¶pJLGHGHO¶eWDW ... 198

7LUHUGHVHQVHLJQHPHQWVGHVVXFFqVHWGHVpFKHFV ... 199

C. Des relations à géométrie variable entre l’État et les entreprises ... 201

/HVLQVWLWXWLRQVGHO¶eWDWGpYHORSSHPHQWLVWH ... 201

/HVUHODWLRQVHQWUHOHJRXYHUQHPHQWHWOHVHQWUHSULVHV ... 203

0HVXUHVGHVRXWLHQUpVXOWDWVHWGLVFLSOLQH ... 204

D. Une réévaluation des instruments de la politique industrielle... 208

'HVSROLWLTXHVLQGXVWULHOOHVDFWLYHVHWSDVVLYHVELHQFLEOpHV... 208

/DJHVWLRQGHVUHQWHV ... 211

/HUHQIRUFHPHQWGHVFDSDFLWpVG¶DSSUHQWLVVDJH ... 212

E. L’intégration des politiques commerciales, macroéconomiques et structurelles ... 216

/HU{OHGXFRPPHUFHLQWHUQDWLRQDOXQHDSSURFKHVWUDWpJLTXH ... 216

,PSRUWDQFHGHVIDFWHXUVPDFURpFRQRPLTXHV ... 218

5pWDEOLVVHPHQWGXFRXSOHEpQp¿FHVLQYHVWLVVHPHQWV ... 221

/HVSROLWLTXHVHQIDYHXUG¶XQHPHLOOHXUHLQWpJUDWLRQGXVHFWHXUSULPDLUH ... 223

F. Conclusions ... 224

Notes ... 226

Bibliographie ... 227

Annexe au chapitre VI Croissance et changement structurel

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En 1997, le Rapport sur le commerce et le développement avançait que le retour à une croissance plus rapide et au plein emploi dans les pays développés était indispensable pour remédier au creusement des inégalités, et mettait en garde contre le risque que, si cet objectif n’était pas atteint, « l’opinion publique s’insurge contre la mondialisation, ce qui pourrait remettre en cause les acquis de l’intégration économique internationale ».

Depuis lors, les pays développés ont connu un bref cycle d’expansion-récession, avec la bulle Internet, suivi d’une période de croissance stable et de recul progressif du chômage. Cette situation a été facilitée par la politique d’aisance monétaire menée par les États-Unis, qui s’est accompagnée G¶XQUHJDLQGHFRQ¿DQFHGHODSDUWGHVLQYHVWLVVHXUVG¶XQHLQWHQVL¿FDWLRQGHVÀX[GHFDSLWDX[

internationaux et d’une relance du commerce international. Selon certains économistes, l’économie mondiale était entrée dans une période de « grande modération », d’aucuns expliquant dans la IRXOpHFRPPHQWGHVPDUFKpVK\SHUHI¿FLHQWVHWDXWRUpJXOpVVRXVO¶œil attentif de gouverneurs de EDQTXHVFHQWUDOHVDYLVpVDYDLHQW¿QDOHPHQWVXUPRQWpO’obstacle du « transfert de risque » et de OD©VWDELOLWp¿QDQFLqUHªSRXUUHSUHQGUHOHVWHUPHVXWLOLVpVSDU$ODQ*UHHQVSDQDORUV3UpVLGHQW de la Réserve fédérale.

Le discours était rassurant, mais passait sous silence le fait que la croissance était alimentée par XQVXUHQGHWWHPHQWPDVVLIHWSDUXQHSDVVLRQPDODGLYHGHVDFWHXUVGHVPDUFKpV¿QDQFLHUVSRXU OHVSDULVjKDXWULVTXH'DQVFH©JUDQGMHX¿QDQFLHUªOHVLQpJDOLWpVORLQGHVHUpGXLUHQ¶RQW FHVVpGHVHFUHXVHUíMXVTX¶à atteindre des niveaux qui n’avaient plus été observés dans certains pays depuis les années 1920.

/DFKDQFHGHV¿QDQFLHUVD¿QLSDUWRXUQHUORUVTXHODFULVHGHVSUrWVK\SRWKpFDLUHVjKDXWULVTXH (« crise des subprimes »), amorcée au début de l’année 2007, a conduit à la faillite de la banque d’investissement Lehman Brothers, en septembre 2008. L’euphorie a rapidement cédé la place jODSDQLTXHHQWUDvQDQWQRQVHXOHPHQWXQHIIRQGUHPHQWGHVPDUFKpV¿QDQFLHUVLQWHUQDWLRQDX[

mais aussi la plus importante contraction de l’activité économique mondiale depuis la Grande Dépression.

/HVSRXYRLUVSXEOLFVVHVRQWHPSUHVVpVG¶LQWHUYHQLUSRXUVDXYHUOHVV\VWqPHV¿QDQFLHUVDFWLYDQW la planche à billets et engageant des mesures plus ciblées en fonction du contexte local ; à son tour, le G20 est entré dans la danse pour coordonner une politique d’expansion budgétaire d’inspiration keynésienne. M. Greenspan a présenté ses excuses et a reconnu qu’il avait « commis XQHHUUHXUHQFUR\DQWTXHOHVpWDEOLVVHPHQWV¿QDQFLHUVQRWDPPHQWOHVEDQTXHVSDUOHVLQWpUrWV TX¶LOVSRXUVXLYDLHQWpWDLHQWOHVPLHX[jPrPHGHSURWpJHUOHXUVSURSUHVDFWLRQQDLUHVHWOHXUV parts dans les entreprises ».

Trente trimestres se sont écoulés depuis le début de la crise, et les pays développés peinent toujours à retrouver le chemin d’une croissance forte ;DYDQWPrPHTXHOH%UH[LWQHSURYRTXHXQHQRXYHOOH VHFRXVVHVXUOHVPDUFKpV¿QDQFLHUVOHVGpFLGHXUVDQQRQoDLHQWGHVOHQGHPDLQVSOXVUXGHVHQFRUH /HVSUpYLVLRQVGHFURLVVDQFHRQWpWpUpJXOLqUHPHQWUHYXHVjODEDLVVHHWGHQRXYHDX[WHUPHVRQW vu le jour pour décrire une économie à la traîne, devant choisir entre des poussées de croissance pSLVRGLTXHVHWODVWDELOLWp¿QDQFLqUH/HVSD\VHQGpYHORSSHPHQWTXLSHQGDQWXQWHPSVV¶étaient crus déconnectés de ce qui se passait dans les pays développés, redoutent aujourd’hui de plus HQSOXVTXHOHVPHVXUHVSULVHVSDUFHVGHUQLHUVSXLVVHQWGpFOHQFKHUXQHVSLUDOHGpÀDWLRQQLVWHHW une nouvelle série de crises de la dette.

6LODVLWXDWLRQDFWXHOOHVHPEOHPRLQVLQTXLpWDQWHTX¶HQHOOHV¶DYqUHSOXVGLI¿FLOHjJpUHU LeV\VWqPH¿QDQFLHUD\DQWUHWURXYpGHVDYLJXHXUOHVUHVSRQVDEOHVSROLWLTXHVHWOHVGpFLGHXUV se sont de nouveau sentis impuissants face à des forces mondiales soi-disant insurmontables et RQWIDLWGX©VWDWXTXRªOHXUSROLWLTXHSDUGpIDXW/HVPDUFKpV¿QDQFLHUVVHVRQWDVVDJLVVDQV changer pour autant : les niveaux d’endettement sont plus élevés que jamais et les inégalités sont WRXMRXUVSOXVPDUTXpHV/HVSUR¿WVUpDOLVpVSHQGDQWODSKDVHDVFHQGDQWHVRQWSULQFLSDOHPHQW GXVjODKDXVVHGHVSUL[GHVDFWLIVHWGHVEpQp¿FHVGHVHQWUHSULVHV3DUDOOqOHPHQWOHVPHVXUHV d’ajustement adoptées pendant la phase descendante ont surtout fait sentir leurs effets sur les pays débiteurs et sur les ménages d’actifs, dont les salaires, l’emploi et les prestations sociales sont constamment menacés par un rétablissement des mesures d’austérité.

2QSRXUUDLWVDQVGRXWHjMXVWHWLWUHTXDOL¿HUFHWWHFRQMRQFWXUHGH©SpULRGH3RODQ\Lª'pMj altéré, le cadre réglementaire et normatif dont dépend la santé des marchés, commence à se GLVWHQGUHjPHVXUHTXHO¶HUUHXUGH*UHHQVSDQSqVHVXUXQHSDUWLHWRXMRXUVSOXVpWHQGXHGHOD YLHpFRQRPLTXHHWVRFLDOHíGHODSUpFDULVDWLRQGHVFRQGLWLRQVGHWUDYDLOMXVTX¶DX[HQWUHSULVHV TXLWUDQVIqUHQWOHXUGRPLFLOH¿VFDORXjO¶HDXFRXUDQWHGHYHQXHLPSURSUHjODFRQVRPPDWLRQ /DFRQ¿DQFHGDQVOHVUHVSRQVDEOHVSROLWLTXHVHVWDXSOXVEDVDORUVPrPHTXHO¶DGRSWLRQGH mesures décisives n’a jamais été aussi nécessaire. Cela vaut en particulier pour plusieurs enjeux mondiaux interdépendants, énumérés dans les objectifs de développement durable, qui exigent XQHFRRSpUDWLRQHWXQHDFWLRQHI¿FDFHVDXQLYHDXLQWHUQDWLRQDO

Considérant une période similaire pendant l’entre-deux-guerres, Karl Polanyi a estimé que les PDUFKpVQHSRXUUDLHQWFRQWULEXHUjXQDYHQLUVWDEOHHWSURVSqUHSRXUWRXVVDQVXQH©JUDQGH WUDQVIRUPDWLRQª,OIDXGUDLWUHVWDXUHUODFRQ¿DQFHUHQIRUFHUODUpJOHPHQWDWLRQpWHQGUHOHVGURLWV HWpODUJLUODUHSUpVHQWDWLRQ$XOHQGHPDLQGHOD'HX[LqPH*XHUUHPRQGLDOHOHVUHVSRQVDEOHV politiques occidentaux sont parvenus à trouver l’équilibre entre l¶HI¿FDFLWpGHVPpFDQLVPHVGX marché et l’exigence d’une prospérité partagée et d’une plus grande sécurité économique. Dans l’pFRQRPLHWUqVPRQGLDOLVpHG’aujourd’hui, opérer la transformation requise constitue un enjeu politique majeur pour les pays et les communautés, à tous les stades de développement.

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