The Future for Agriculture and Building

Publisher’s version / Version de l'éditeur:

Vous avez des questions? Nous pouvons vous aider. Pour communiquer directement avec un auteur, consultez la première page de la revue dans laquelle son article a été publié afin de trouver ses coordonnées. Si vous n’arrivez pas à les repérer, communiquez avec nous à PublicationsArchive-ArchivesPublications@nrc-cnrc.gc.ca.

Questions? Contact the NRC Publications Archive team at

PublicationsArchive-ArchivesPublications@nrc-cnrc.gc.ca. If you wish to email the authors directly, please see the first page of the publication for their contact information.

https://publications-cnrc.canada.ca/fra/droits

L’accès à ce site Web et l’utilisation de son contenu sont assujettis aux conditions présentées dans le site

LISEZ CES CONDITIONS ATTENTIVEMENT AVANT D’UTILISER CE SITE WEB.

Technical Paper (National Research Council of Canada. Division of Building

Research), 1967-11

READ THESE TERMS AND CONDITIONS CAREFULLY BEFORE USING THIS WEBSITE. https://nrc-publications.canada.ca/eng/copyright

NRC Publications Archive Record / Notice des Archives des publications du CNRC : https://nrc-publications.canada.ca/eng/view/object/?id=6c610d47-9c2c-45bc-ab5c-2ceb5c9958c7 https://publications-cnrc.canada.ca/fra/voir/objet/?id=6c610d47-9c2c-45bc-ab5c-2ceb5c9958c7

Archives des publications du CNRC

For the publisher’s version, please access the DOI link below./ Pour consulter la version de l’éditeur, utilisez le lien DOI ci-dessous.

https://doi.org/10.4224/20378964

Access and use of this website and the material on it are subject to the Terms and Conditions set forth at

The Future for Agriculture and Building

Ser TH]-N2t"t2 na. 266 e . 2 B],DG

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF CANADA DIVISION OT' BUILDING RESEARCH

THE FUTURE 3.OR AGRICULTURE AND BUILDING Two papers Presented at the

Saskatoon Jubilee SYrnPo siurn 29 Septernber 1966

A N A I . Y ; . f D

Division of Building Research

Technical Paper No. 256 of the

Division of Building Research

OTTAWA Novernber 1967

b y

Dean L. H. Shebeski

College of Agriculture - University of Manitoba

It is particularly fitting that this syrnposiurn, corrr-rnernorating sixty years of progress and developrnent of the City of Saskatoon, should open with a paper on Education and close with a paper on Agriculture.

E D U C A T I O N b e c a u s e e d u c a t e d p e o p l e a r e b a s i c t o t h e P r o g r e s s , developrnent, and wealth of any nation. It was on this prernise that Dean Bladen at the Resources for Tornorrow Conference held in M o n t r e a l i n 1 9 6 I a r g u e d t h a t , t r . . o r n u c h o f t h e r e x p e n s e r p r o p e r l y

i n c u r r e d i n e d u c a t i o n i s r e a l l y a n t i n v e s t r n e n t ! . . . . r t

AGRICULTURE because the rnost critical problern facing hurnanity in the decades ahead is that of continuing to provide food for the exploding populations.

It is perhaps difficult for those who live in Western

Canada to visualize ot take seriously the increasingly repeated warning that unless rnan brings his rate of increase under control farnines of unprecedented proportions will be inevitable. In Saskatchewan, an all-tirne record high wheat crop has been harvested with an all-tirne record high in yield per acre. In 1905, one rnillion, one hundred and thirty thousand acres were planted to wheat in this province and, with a n a v e r a g e y i e l d o f . 2 3 . I b u s h e l s p e r a c r e , 2 6 r n i l l i o n , 1 0 7 t h o u s a n d bushels were harvested' sixty-one years later - 1966 - the estirnated

s e e d e d a c r e a g e i n S a s k a t c h e w a n o f 1 9 . 7 r n i l l i o n a c r e s a t a n e s t i r n a t e d yield of. ?8 bushels per acre should give this province a record of 5 5 1 r n i t l i o n b u s h e l s . T h i s p r o v i n c e t s o v e r - a I I g r a i n c r o p w i l l b e worth well over a billion dollars.

It should be obvious that any increase in volurne of agricultural production, such as that enjoyed in the West this year, has an irnrnediate and pronounced effect on the urban business

cornrnunity. Forty to fifty per cent of the business conducted in Canada is directly or indirectly related to agricultural products - by way of illustration, banks, feed rnills, fertilizer plants, food processing plants, and transportation.

2

-W'e have corne a long way in the last sixty years. We have seen striking changes in agricultural practices, particularly il rnechanization; in fertilization practices; in weed and insect control; in our ability to contend with drought. In Saskatchewan as the horse was elirninated as a source of power, nine rnillion acres previously u s e d f o r f e e d i n g h o r s e s w e r e c o n v e r t e d t o p r o d u c i n g f o o d f o r p e o p l e .

During this rapid period of expansion, we have had to contend with surpluses, with storage a rnajor problern. We find it difficult therefore, to visualize the evil spirit narned trFlungerrr which hovers over the birth of each succeeding generation and which has been described by Dr. H. L. Truernan in the following terrns:

ttl arn HUNGER. I take the bodies of rnen and wornen and children, and twist thern and torture thern and corrupt thern until it is a travesty to say that they were ever rnade in the irnage of God. I take away frorn rny victirns the strength to help thernselves, the will

to grow the food they need, to house thernselves, to rule thernselves for the corrrrnon welfare, even the desire to walk the good earth in strength and gladness. rrl an HUNGER. I hold sway over half of all rnankind. tt I rnake no apology for exgrosilg you to an exarnination of what I firrnly believe to be the rnost critical problern facing hurnanity: that of continuing to provide adequate sustenance" This is a problern that is to be featured at E:<po 67 in tJre Agriculture Pavilion and I quote frorn advance publicity:

rrFeatured for the first tirne at an International Exhibition, agriculture will be shown in a new Iight - its trernendous technical achievernents, and how all hurnanity d.epends on the farrner i:: feeding this hungry wor1d.

t'The population explosion and how, as a result, rnan rnust find new ways of producing rnore food will be drarnatically told. A ttpeople rnachinett - turning out two plastic bodies per second - wiII drarnatize the rate of population increase. About 32, 000, 000 people will be added to the world during Expo 67 - a third of whorn fiIay never get enough to eat! It

year, United States Agricultural told the Orerseas Press Club in In APriI of this

Secretary, Orville Freernan, Washington

' , B y l g S 4 a l l t h e c o r n b i n e d f o o d p r o d u c t i o n , o n a l l

the acres, of all agriculturally productive nations' will not rneet the food requirernents of the less develoPed countri€s" rr

By I984 rnan loses his race with farnine'

I f f u r t h e r s u p p o r t i s n e c e s s a r y f o r r n y c o n t e n t i o n o f the seriousness of the problern, it is not hard to find"

ARNOLD J. TOYNBEE, British Historian:

ttlf atornic weapons do not destroy all life, preventive rnedicine applied by public health authorities will allow the nurnbers of the hurnan race to rnultiply lrp to starvation point and beyond it, unless we can bring ourselves quickly to change our habits, and our traditional attitudes, in regard to the procreation of c h i l d r e n . l l

ALBERT EINSTEIN:

trProgress of hygiene and rnedicine has cornpletely altered the earlier precarious equilibriurn of the quantitative stability of the hurnan race' I arn therefore firrnty convinced that a powerful atternpt to solve this trernendous problern is of urgent n e c e s s i t y . l l

VANNEVAR BUSH, forrner President, Carnegie

Institution of Washington:

t'The worldts population is increasing at a rate which renders distress, farnine and disintegration inevitable unless we learn to hold our nurnbers within reason' rt

, 4

-WINSTON CHURCHILL:

ttlf with all the resources of rnodern science, we find ourselves unable to avert world farnine we shall all be to blarne but a peculiar responsibility would rest upon the scientists. I do not believe that they will fail, but if they do, or were not allowed to succeed, the consequences would be very unpleasant because it is certain tlrat rnankind would not agree to starve equally, and there rnight be sorne very sharp disagreernents about how the last crust would be shared. This would sirnplify our problern in an unduly prirnordial rnanner. rl

The quotations sirnply state the seriousness of the problern, but do not indicate elernents of tirne or what should be done. It is

irnperative that an accurate assessrnent be rnade of the rnagnitude of the problern on the basis of nurnbers dpeople to be fed, the land resources available, and the tirne elernents involved.

Nurnbers of people and the tirne elernent: Although vital statistics for all countries are not by any rrleans cornplete or accurate, United Nationst studies are providing firore accurate inforrnation year by year. In countries with inadequate vital statistics, intensive sarnpling has been carried out. According to Dr. J. M. Jones in his book, Does Over-population Mean Poverty? as newer and rnore cornplete data becorne available previous estirnates usually are found to have erred on the low side. _{On the basis of United Nationsr vital statistics there can be little} doubt that the present world population is slightly over 3" 3 billion people and is increasing at a rate of about l" 5 per cent per annrrrn.

The tirne required to double a population depends on its rate of growth, and seerningly srnall percentage increases in the annual rate of growth result in very rapid total increases in population" The following table indicates the relation between rate of increase and tirne required for a population to double itseU:

lf the Population Increases E a c h Y e a r a t

The Total Population Will Double in I . 5 p e r 2 " 0 p e r 2 " 5 p e r 3 " 0 p e r 4 . 0 p e r c ent c e n t c e n t cent cent 4 6 " 2 y e a r s 3 4 " 6 y e a r s 2 7 . 6 y e a r s 2 3 " I y e a r s I 7 . 3 y e a r s

You rnay be interested in sorne of the current rates of increase in the more densely populated areas of the world as extracted frorn United Nations! Dernographic Yearbooks:

C-ountry U . S . S " R . China (Mainland) Taiwan India Pakistan Brazil Ghana

Annual Rate of Increase (per cglrt)

1 . 8 2 " 3 3 . 3 2 " 6 ? . 5 3 . I 4 . 0

Mexico, with a population of forty rnillion, was listed a t 3 . 4 p e r c e n ! b u t i n a n a d d r e s s g i v e n b y D r . N . E . B o r l a u g o n

ItFood Production in a Fertile 'Worldtr in Winnipeg several rnonths ago, it was stated that recent inforrnation indicates the current population growth rate of Mexico to be 4 pet cent per annurn which, as previously stated, rrreans doubling in I7.3 years.

Thailand, on the basis of their 1954-56 population statistics, w a s c o n s i d e r e d t o b e i n c r e a s i n g a t 2 . 4 p e r c e n t p e r a n n u r n . T h e l a t e s t figures indicate that the present rate of increase is now 4 per cent per annlrrrl. lMith reference to Thailand, Dr" P" C. DeKock frorn the Macaulay Institute, Aberdeen, Scotland, in speaking last January on the Agricultural Dilernrna, stated:

ttlt is said that a Thai wornan rnarries at sixteen and until the age of forty-three produces about twenty-six children of which three survive infancy, but that is one too rnany. rr

lf Dr. DeKockrs staternent about the nurnber of children is reasonably accurate, we can obviously expect an increase over the current rate of 4 per cent per annurn because rnedical advances and sanitation will reduce infant rnortality in Thailand far sooner than other agencies will be able to influence a reduced birth r?t€o

In the light of the rates of increase presented for individual. countries, it is logical to accept the United Nationst projection on a

. 6

-in his paper, rtFood - the World Marketrr:

nn. o it is estirnated that by 1995, only thirty years hence, the population of the world will have reached between seven and eight billion. rt

S i r n i l a r f i g u r e s - 7 , 4 ! 0 , 0 O O , 0 0 0 p e o p l e b y t h e y e a r 2 , 0 0 0 A D - w e r e

forecast in an irnpressive illustration appearing in the June 1966

issue of Fortune rnagazine"

Although the basis for these forecasts or projections

are sou:rd, I arn firrnly convi-nced that the world population will not

reach seven billion by 1995 because we, the agricultural comrnr:nity

will not be able to produce sufficient food to sustain so large a

poP-ulation in so short a space of tirne" The current farnine in India is

a forerunner of greater farnines in the next three decades in the

rnore densely populated sections of the world. Man the Provider

will not be capable of providing. As a basis for this staternent,

let us exarnine the second phabe of the problern, our land resources,

and what we know about their productivity and about the people who

are charged witJ: the responsibility of rnaking the land produce.

Land resources: It is not diJficult to deterrnine the actual land area

of the earth. According to the Foreign Agricultural Econornic

Report No. II, rrMan, Land and Food || the worldts land surface

currently is estirnated at 32.9 billion acres. Of this, 3.5 billion

acres, or just under llper cent of the total, is classified as arable

land and land in tree crops. The arnount actually planted to crops

in a given year is considerably less, usually under 2'4 billion, but

using the figure of 3.5 billion acres now classified as arable the current ratio of cultivable land and population is one acre Per person.

In Canada we have about six acres of cultivable land per person. In the

light of todayrs technology cornpetent authorities estirnate that it should

be possible to add another I"3 billion acres to the worldts

food-producing areas, but the increasing populations ar,e occupying land

and taking agricultural land out of production rnore rapidly than new,

rnarginal lands are being broulht into production. Thus, over the

next thirty years we can expect a decrease rather than an increase of

land available for crop production as an additional three and one-haU

'w'e

in canada and the united states particularly are wasteful of agricultural land, and it is irnportant to note that in rnost instances the land that is lost to agriculture is the rnost Pro-ductive land in the country and therefore disproportionately large in terrns of acres. This is so because of the pattern of original settlernent when agriculture *b.s by far the rnost significant industry' It was natural that cities would be founded and roads built in the rnost thriving agricultural co#rrnunities.

At the trResources for Tornorrown conJerence held in Montreal in Lg6L, A. D. Crerar pointed out that in the areas of winnipeg, Toronto, Harnilton, and. Montreal frorn 1951 to 1956 approxirnately four hundred acres of farrn land were rernoved frorn agricultural prod.uction with eVery one thousand increase in population' During the sarne period, one thousand acres of farm land were lost at ottawa and Quebec per one thousand increase in population"

According to DBS, the total fafrn area occupied in Ganada in 1956 was less than that in 195I and a still further loss occurred in the last five-year period.

Corning back to the world scene' it is very safe to conclude that if the population were to reach seven billion in thirty years, we would be charged with the responsibility of producing food for that population frorn less than one haU acre per person.

There are nrany who believe that this can be done. In a recent issue of the Farnilv Herald under the heading of, rtSorne Thoughts on Food Productior, tr Gilbert MacMillan a widely-known farrner who has a dairy operation at Hrrntingdon, Quebec, expressed hirnself as follows:

rfWe are continually being warned that unless sorne drastic steps are taken to control the increase in population which is taking place all over the world, then the hurnan race will eventually starve to death. I cannot quite agree with this dire forecast,

because of the progress that science has rnade in cornbatting rrlany of the pests and diseases that harnpered food production" rl

8

-In the Western Producer, Harry Hargrave' Chief' Land Use Service, P" F. R. A., is quoted as stating that Brazil could produce four tirneE as much agricultural produce as the united states, that she has the agricultural potential to feed one billion people.

D r . J e a n M a y e r , D e p a r t r n e n t o f N u t r i t i o n a t H a r v a r d , firrnly believes that rnan can continue to feed hirnself indefinitely,

that there is an abundance of land resource. Just a yeat ago last Decernber in ttNutrition Review, rr DI' . Mayer wrote:

l ' o u r p o p u l a t i o n i s i n c r e a s i n g f a s t e r t h a n i t e v e r has; our rnajor nutrition problern is over-weighl

o u r r n a j o r a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o . b l e r n i s o u r e v e ! . r n o u n t i n g exces s Production. rr

R e p o r t s s u c h a s t h e s e a r e r n o s t d i s t u r b i n g b e c a u s e , although they are rnad.e by responsible people in good faith, they are not supportable on the basis of known experience on the world scene and they tend' to rninirnize the danger and the urgency of the problerns we face. Perhaps the best exarnple that can be used of how difficult it will be to feed seven billion people frorn three and one-half billion acres is to look at the situation in Britain. Britain is an advanced country agriculturally, and a rnost productive one. Britain is classijied as one of the twenty-five rnajor wheat-producing countries of the world (rnajor produeing countries are defined as those having two rnillion or naore acres of wheat). Of the twenty-five Britain has by far the highest average wheat yields - 54" 8 bushels per a c r e c B y c o r n p a r i s o n , c a n a d a a v e r a g e s 2 0 . 9 b u s h e l s l u . s . A " 2 5 " L ; A r g e n t i n a L 7 " O;, U. S" S. R. I 1. 9; Australia I8. 4 ; e t c ' E v e n i f t h e s e countries could double their average yields, they still would not be able to rnatch Britaints average yields. This ability to produce in Britain is not restricted. to wheat. It applies to a wide variety of agricultural products. Despite this high level of production, Britain' which has one-half an acre of cultivable land Per person, prodrrces only 55 per cent of her food.. Britain currently irnports rnore than 4.5 billion dollars worth of food annually. In the 18 Novernber, L965 issue of thetb{ew Scientisdj Sir Williarn Slater in an article entitled, ilCould Britain Feed Herself?tr answers tbe question in the negative.

Can we conceive that on a world basis we will be

able to rnatch Britain!s productivity within thirty years? Clirnate

alone in rnuch of the agricultural areas would prohibit rnatching

such productivity. And if Britain is not able to produce sufficient

food frorn one-half an acre per person, surely on a world basis we

will not be able to do so.

An even greater lirniting factor to adequate food

production than our land resource is the hurnan elernent that is

directly or indirectly charged with the responsibility of rnaking the

Iand. prod.uce. One such group is the pfirnary producer, the farrner.

Professor L" B. Siernens succinctly stated the problern in an article

surnrnarizing the proceedings of a Conference on Agricultural Education

in Asia and I quote:

ttAnother barrier to the irnperative of a1l-out

agricultural production through edueation lios

in the rnultihrde of farrners to be reached with

production technology, and with the general

state of literacy. Of tJ:e billion people in Asia

(not counting Red China) about seven hundred

rnillion are living or working on about one

hundred and fifty rnillion farrns. OI the total

population in these countries, about 40 per cent

of those over fifteen years of age cannot read or

write. Irnagine, for instance, the task of setting

up and rnaintai4ing an agricultural education

systern for the rnore than sixty rnillion farnily

heads presently farrning in India, seventy per

cent of whorn are illiterate" fl

Even here where we have no illiteracy, what percentage

of our farrners rnake use of known technology to increase production?

Many of us easily could be rnisled iJ we were to accept

what we read without a critical exarnination of the actual facts. The

erninent international agricultural econornist, Lester R. Brown, in

his recent book, Increasing World Foqd Output shows Canada as

- 1 0

very low five-year average frorn 1935-39, which included drought in saskatchewan and rust in Manitoba and cornpared this with the

Lg6L-62 average, frorn which he excluded the 196L data because it was a dry year. But accord.ing to DBS, the latest available five-y e a r a v e r a g e , I g 5 g - 6 4 , o f 1 9 " 6 b u s h e l s p e r a c r e i s c o n s i d e r a b l five-y l o w e r t h a n t h e f 9 1 1 - 1 9 1 6 a v e r a g e o f 2 0 . 8 b u s h e l s p e r a c r e ' I t i s this type of realistic statistic that rnost probably led to Dr" DeKockrs

staternent,

trBut can anyone point to a vast irnprovernent in the y i e l d s o f w h e a t i n t h e C a n a d i a n P r a i r i e s o v e r t h e

last thirty of forty years? The prairies have yielded. and presurnably will yield twenty bushels per acre for rnany years to corneo rl

Although I arn confident we will upgrade our wheat yields in Western Canada, we will have to adrnit that despite our high

level of literacy and technology, despite the availability of fertilizers, of chernicals for weed control, we have not been able to obtain tangible increasee in yield over what our farrners obtained fifty years ago. Why then should we expect to be able to double our yields in the next thirty years as we and all other corrntries rnust iJ seven billion people a r e t o b e f e d ?

Earlier I stated that rrthe current farnine in India is a forerunner of greater farnines in the next three decades because the agricultural cornrnunity will not be able to produce sufficient food to sustain the expected population in so short a space of tirne" It is not that the land is not capable of producing sufficient food, but that rnan has not even begun to rnobilize his resources to take the kind of action necessary to avert rnajor catastrophes. To date, we in Canada have really only given lip service to the problern. We have too rnuch dil-srs;ity of opinion in our agricultural ranks to convince our governrnent orany'other governfirents that rnanls survival depends on a rnobilization of resourcbs sirnilar to the type of rnobilization we have dernonstrated ourselves capable of achieving during the last two world warse 'W'e have not subrnitted any plan of action that has really inJluenced governrnent policy, and it is not the politician who should be blarned. The agricultural cornrnunity has not rnade its voice effective.

consider what action has been taken since the assess-rnent of renewable resources in Montreal in I95I:

The Governrnent has established a Canadian Council of Resource Ministers who concern thernselves with provincial and national problerns in the renewable resource fields of fisheries, forestry' wild liJe, recreation, water, and land. It is rather ironical that the Council of Resource Ministers do not include governrnent representation frorn agriculture, a rnajor user of land and water. ARDA has been established (The Agricultural Rehabilitation and Developrnent Act) whose rnajor function aPPears to be the taking of rnarginal agricultural land out of production and the rehabilitation o f p e o p l e f r o r n d e p r e s s e d a r e a s .

The urban sprawl continues unabated, however, and agricultural land is being irretrievably lost at an jncreasing rate. Industries, rnore and rnore, are developing sprawling, one-storey buildings with adequate parking facilities in appropriately landscaped

settings. Housing developrnents provide larger lots and rnore recreational space for new and growing comrnunities, and these d.eveloprnents in thernselves are good. But should the developrnents continue where they do?

I look at 'Winnipeg, set on fertile lacustrine soils at the junction of the Red and Assiniboine Rivers. Expansion can take place only on good agricultural land" Sixty rniles to the east are vast

stretches of non-agricultural land covered with forests, lakes and strearns" It is frorn this area that Winnipeg obtains water. It is frorn this area that Winnipeg brings in hydro-electric power, and

it is to this area that rnasses of people rnigrate every weekend for relaxation on highways sonle of which have taken out of production as rnuch as forty acres per rnile. l,!trhy not establish a greenbelt around. Winnipeg and other such cities and establish industries and new cities where water, power and resort areas are lnore conveniently Iocated?

We will continue to lose the Niagara Peninsula to

urbanization, we will continue to lose the Fraser Valley, because we do not believe sufficiently that good agricultural land is a precious r esource requiring conservation.

, _ I Z _

How rnuch could we increase the productivity of the P r a i r i e s i f l a r g e a r e a s c o u l d b e i r r i g a t e d , p a r t i c u l a r l y f o r a g e productivity and livestock carrying capacity? We do not know the answer and, unfortunately, we are doing very little to find it.

Sorne of you rnay be farniliar with the one hundred bitlion dollar proposal of the North Arnerican Water and Power Alliance, which conceives the collection of one hundred and ten rnillion acre-feet of water per year frorn northern Canadian rivers and the diversion and distribution of this water to the w a t e r - s c a r c e a r e a s o f C a n a d a , t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , a n d M e x i c o .

Of the total diverted water, eighteen per cent is visualized for use in Canada, sixty-five per cent for use in the United States, and seventeen per cent for use in Mexico. According to the Financial Post (15 January, L966I trAlberta says no water for the U. S. rr This sarne report indicated that British Colurnbia was opposed to further water exports. Ottawa has so far taken a distinctly cool attitude to NAUIAPA. Its position is the sarne as that of Alberta and British Colurnbia: Canadian needs rnust be e s t a b l i s h e d f i r s t "

But how quickly are we atternpting to estabiish Canadian needs? Can we afford to export water? According to Professor Kuiper, a hydraulic engineer, the available water flow frorn the Nelson, Churchill, Mackenzie and Yukon River systerns is approxirnately three hundred rnillion acre-feet per annufir" The United Statest dernand is estirnated at ninety rnillion acre-feet.

Surely, here is a type of prograrn that needs irnrnediate and thorough exarnination because it will take fifteen to twenty years of planning and building, even if we were to start now.

I have suggested only one type of Prograrrr that con-ceivably could have a trernendous irnpact on food production potential in Canada" Our rnajor role, and the role of all developed countries, is to initiate irnrnediately crash prografirs in the underdeveloped

countries at war tirne levels of expenditure because we rnust wage an aII-out war against the circurnstances and factors that threaten

rnankind.

Top priority rnust go to the field of education. Collectively we rnust rnuster literally arrnies of teachers to go to the problern areas

of the world and as quickly as possible eradicate illiteracy. 'We require a literate world to industriaLize, but even rnore irnportant to appreciate and accept rnodern rrreans of population control. No rnatter how

quickly we develop a gigantic prograrn in education it will take decades to cornplete, and despite our best efforts we will not be able to

avert farnine in densely-populated areas of the world as populations rnushroorn towards the predicted seven billion people before the year 2, 000. But at least this type of prograrn will hasten the day when rnan will stabilize his growth at a rate cornrnensurate with his capability to provide any standard of living he should choose.

An alrnost equal top priority rnust be the all-out drive in increasing agricultural productivity on the worldrs lirnited acreage. The tirne elernent at our disposal, if we wish to avert serious and increasing farnine, is so short that the urgency cannot be sufficiently ernphasized.

I have atternpted to indicate that we as people have not accepted the warning of various world leaders whorn I have quoted earlier, and that the blarne rnust surely lie with the Agricultural profession" FIow can we influence governrnent policy if we do not

speak with one urgent, insistent voice indicating that under the existing distribution of rnanrs resources the agricultural cornrnunity cannot contirrue to provide?

That we have not influenced governrrlent policy rnight best be appreciated if we look at the Arnerican New Adrninistration B u d g e t a s r e p o r t e d i n t h e J a n u a r y 3 I , 1 9 6 6 i s s u e o f N e w s w e e k .

In Billions of DoIIar s

Defence Education

A g r i c u l t u r e . e r . e c .

Before sumrnarizing, I would like to take a few rnore rninutes of your tirne to look at the next few decades for Saskatoon and the Prairies as they pertain to agriculture. In contrast with rrrany other areas of the world, I cannot help but believe that we are

entering an unprecedented era of prosperity. Dernands for agricultural

L 4

-P r e s i d e n t , M a n i t o b a -P o o l E l e v a t o r s , i n a n a d d r e s s g i v e n a y e a r ago, the world need in terrns of conventional foods by f970 should rise over existing dernands by the following arnounts:

R e d M e a t s D a i r y P r o d u c t s Wheat

C o r n

Food Fats and Oils Soybean Oi1 7 billion Ib 622 rnIlIion 3 05 rnillion 443 rnillion 8. Z billion 4 . 6 b i l l i o n 1b b u s h e l s b u s h e l s ib 1b

In addition, enorrnous arnounts of poultry, fish, eggs, rnilled rice, b a r l e y , b e a n s , a n d p e a s w i l l b e r e q u i r e d . W e s h o u l d h a v e a r e a d y rnarket for anything we produce - or at least the need will be there.

W e c a n e x p e c t g r e a t l y - i n c r e a s e d p r o d u c t i v i t y a n d r n o r e efficient production" We are just entering the fertilizer age. In rrlany areas where rnoisture is not a lirniting factor surnmer fallow will be elirninated and high yields will be rnaintained under continuous cropping of all the land by rneans of heavy fertilizer use and chernical weed control" Certainly, a nurnber of the rnore progressive farrners in Manitoba provide arnple evidence of increased farrn productivity and increased farrn profit after ten years of continuous cropping.

By 1975 I e><pect that rnuch of the wheat grown on the P r a i r i e s w i l l b e F i r s t G e n e r a t i o n H y b r i d s . R e s e a r c h i n t o t h e f easibility of producing hybrids in wheat started in I9 62 and t}::

evidence to date indicates that hybrid vigour in wheat is of the sarne order as hybrid vigour il corn and that a di-fficult but workable

rnechanisrn is available to rnake hybrid wheat possible. Considerably r r l o r e r e s e a r c h i s n e c e s s a r y b e f o r e t h e 2 5 p e r c e n t i n c r e a s e p o s s i b l e in hybrid wheats will becorne a reality, but with hybrid wheat pro-duction there should be a boorn in a continuing seed business.

I p r e d i c t t h a t w e l l b e f o r e 1 9 7 5 t h e P r a i r i e s w i l l b e growing a new food crop, currently known as Triticale. This is a synthesized species that cornbines the gerrn plasrn of the dururn wheats with rye and should have, with irnprovernent, a productive

potential about 50 per cent higher than that of the bread wheats. More t}:.an 2,500 acres were grown under contract this year in Manitoba to

provide large quantities of seed for anirnal feeding trials, baking trials, distillation, etc. The farrners growing the crop are rnore than enthusiastic about its potential.

The types of increases we can expect within a decade frorn the grain crops will be paralleled in livestock production.

The speed of developrnent and acceptance by farrners will be deterrnined largely by public support in research and education,

which brings rrle back for a rnornent to education. You have established an enviable reputation in education at the university level. Your

scientists and scholars have provided leadership in rrrany fields. Much of the success of agriculture in your province is a direct result of the research work of your Faculty of Agriculture. Abroad, your agricultural _{staff have rnade an even rnore irnpressive record" The} names of Kirk, Flardy, and }larrington are alrnost legend with the Food and Agriculture organization. But we need firany rnore to replace thern in the areas where the rnajor work of increasing food production rnust be done. For even if, in the next three decades, we were to double our production of food in Canada, we are not and never can be the worldrs bread-basket" we sirnply do not have the land"

I have atternpted to outline the problerns and frightening challenges facing rnan in the decades ahead. I have suggested that if we rnobilize rnanls resources-at _{war tirne ernergency leve1s to battle} illiteracy _{and to provide food,, rnass farnines could be averted.}

T h e r e s p o n s i b i l i t y i s o u r s . _{I n t h e w o r d s o f D r . B . R " S e n ,}

trOne rnanrs hunger and want is every rnanr s hr:lger and want. One rnanls freedorn frorn hunger and want is neither a true nor secure freedorn until all

BUILDING b y

N. B. Hutcheon A s s i s t a n t D i r e c t o r D i v i s i o n o f B u i l d i n g R e s e a r c h

National Research Council, Ottawa, Canada

Man has always had a prirnary need for shelter, and h a s c a r r i e d o u t c o n s t r u c t i o n f o r t h i s p u r p o s e e v e r s i n c e h e r n o v e d out of the caves. But buildings today have becorne rnuch rnore than r n e r e s h e l t e r , a l t h o u g h t h e y a r e s t i l l r e q u i r e d p r i r n a r i l y a s p r o t e c -tion frorn the outdoor environrnent. They represent a Iatge part of the wealth of the nation and are intirnately linked with our way of life. Since they are of unusual irnportance it is appropriate that they should be included as a topic for consideration in this Jubilee Syrnposiurn about a city and its future.

When one thinks of buildings, one rnay also think of the construction industry tl.at produces thern. It is Canadar s largest.

It has been said that t'. . . Construction activity in Canada is cornpletely interwoven with the social fabric of the econorrry . . . . In general the health of the construction industry is basic to the welfare and progress of the cornrmrnity and conversely the progress of the cornrnunity is basic to the prosperity of the construction industry. I' When construction is viewed in these terrns, and particularly that part of it which goes towards the provision of buildings, any prediction of the changes to be expected over the next 60 years rnay prove to be highfy uncertain.

I t w i l l b e n e c e s s a r y , i - f r n o r e t h a n r n e r e g u e s s e s a r e

wanted, to take into account not only the possibilities for new technology but also the desires of society and the choices that will be rnade as to the disposition of the productive capacity of the country. There are, in addition, the two basic questions of what the population growth and the eeonornic growth of the country are likely to be. All of this is difficult enough for the country as a whole, and becornes highly speculative indeed if regional and local differences are to be taken into account.

consider the level of activity now devoted to the pro-duction of buildings. The total value of al1 construction in Canada f o r 1 9 5 5 w i l l b e a b o u t $ 1 1 b i l l i o n . T h i s a c c o u n t s f o r a b o u t 2 0 p e r

cent of the gross national product. This dollar value of construction reflecting as it does a high level of econornic growth, will be Il per cent over that for Ig65- About 60 per cent of construction is taken up by buildings, the rernaining 40 per cent by civil engineering

con-struction (including roads and bridges, rnunicipal services, and power and cornrnunication facilities). About half of the building, or 26 per cent of total construction, is required for housing. By cornparison all industrial buildings account for only 8 per cent,

comrnercial 10 per cent, and institutional lI per cent. These figures are for Canada as a whole. The forecast totals for Saskatchewan in

1966 are $622 rnillion, which is 5.6 per cent of the national total, but the proportion for engineering construction is about 5l per cent' which is higher than the national figure of. 40 per cent.

Construction is currently ernploying about 520, 000 workers, or about 7 per cent of the labour force, with an annual total wage bill of $3" 5 billion. An additional $5.4 billion worth of rnaterial, rnainly rnade up of output frorn the rnanufacturing industry, is ernployed' It rnay be noted in passing that wages account directly for about 32 per cent of the total construction bill, while rnaterials rnake up alrnost 50 per cent. This is of sorne significance when ways of reducing costs of building are discussed.

Two notable studies have already been rnade of Canadars econornic prospects. The Royal Cornrnission on this subject offered p r o j e c t i o n s t o 1 9 8 0 i n i t s R e p o r t p u b l i s h e d i n 1 9 5 7 . M o r e r e c e n t l y , i n Decernber 1964, the Econornic Council of Canada issued its First

Annual Review entitled ftEconornic Goals for Canada in I970. tr Several of the ancillary studies frorn both these endeavours, particularly those on rtHousing and Social Capitaltt and trThe Canadian Construction Industryrl for the Gordon Cornrnission and rrFlousing Dernand to l970ttprepared for the Econornic Council provide some interesting projections.

The population of Canada is expected to be about 27 rnillion by f980 and the expenditure orr construction will probably rise to $14 or $ I 5 b i l l i o n i n t e r r n s o f 1 9 5 5 d o l l a r v a l u e s . O f s p e c i a l i n t e r e s t t o

University cities such as Saskatoon are the projections of University enrolrnent based on an increage frorn 6.7 per cent of the university-age

1 8

-p o -p u l a t i o n i n 1 9 5 0 t o 1 5 -p e r c e n t b y 1 9 8 0 , g i v i n g a U n i v e r s i t y enrolrnent then of.267, O0O, or about double the nurnber projected in the sarne studY for 1965.

It can be taken for granted that the population of canada will continue to increase. It trebted in the past 60 years and will probably double before the next 60 are over. In the safiIe period the population of saskatchewan rose alrnost tenJold" No cornparable

increase in the next 50 years for saskatchewan or for its rnajor cities need be expected, but an increase of threefold would seelrl to be quite possible. A doubling or trebling of the population rneans that, very roughly, the building requirernents will also be doubled or trebled"

with regard to the kinds of buildings that will be required, where they will be located, and how they will be arranged, there is

l e s s b a s i s f o r p r o j e c t i o n s . M o r e s p e c i f i c q u e s t i o n s a r e r e q u i r e d r e g a r d i n g what people will want or will do, because buildings are for the use of

peopll, Jirectly or indirectly, and will in general be built in accordance with the directives provided by society.

F o r e x a r n p l e , t h e g r a d u a l s h i J t f r o r n r u r a l t o u r b a n l i v i n g should be noted. In 1951

"ltto"t 70 per cent of the population of canada could. be found in urban centres and only l2 per cent directly on farrns' One is ternpted to suggest that there rnust be a rninirnurn rural population required for food production and that this rnight provide a basis for pre-dicting the rural population, but when one considers the trends of the past 20 years towards suburban living, the possibilities in rnechanization and autornation on the farrns, and the fact that farrners rnay corrlrnute frorn cities and towns, one is left without a basis for a long-terrn

pre-diction guess. The nature of these and other changes will greatly

influence the kind and nurnber of rural buitdings required. The gradual disappearance of the rural school has already taken place, coupled with the developrnent of larger schools in villages and towns to which pupils a r e t r a n s p o r t e d d a i l y f o r d i s t a n c e s o f l 0 r n i l e s o r r n o r e .

A n e q u a l l y d r a r n a t i c c h a n g e i n u r b a n l i v i n g i s r e p r e s e n t e d by the present tr"rrd.

"*"y frorn single-farnily

houses to rnultiple dwell-ings. At the tirne of the L96L census, about 65 per cent of all dwellings were single detached, saskatchewan having 85 per cent and Quebec about 4 0 p e r c e n t . F o r s e v e r a l y e a r s n e w c o n s t r u c t i O n i n t h e l a r g e r u r b a n

centres has provided rnore dwelling units in apartrnents and other types of rnultiple dwellings than in single dweliings; and in 1965, f o r C a n a d a a s a w h o l e , o f t h e I 5 3 , 0 0 0 u n i t s c o r n p l e t e d 7 5 , 0 0 0 o r just under 50 per cent were single detached. In that sarne year,

on the basis of construction started, there were Z5A0 rnore units in apartrnents than in single a"t".tt"a, ind.icating that the trend to apartffrent construction was still very active.

It is still too early to assess clearly what is happening in 1966. _{There are no obvious surpluses of new accom-rrrodation and} it rnust be accepted that given the choices open to thern in 1965 people have been prepared to occupy an increasing nurnber of apartrnents as cornpared with single dwellings. There is no reason to assurne that, given the same choices in 1965, the preferences will have changed suddenly or that the trend will not continue.

The shiJt to apartrnent construction has already had an effect on the construction industry. If continued for even a few rnore years at the present rate it will have serious irnplications for the general arrangernent of cities. It is interesting also to note that this could represent a rnarked shift away frorn horne ownership, since apartrnents rnainly provide rental accornrnodation.

There are other factors, however, that can affect the

choices open to people in the way of accorrunodation. It is well recognized t h a t i n s o f i r e a r e a s a t l e a s t a s h o r t a g e o f serviced land has raised prices and has added to the cost of single dwellings. Apartrnents can be con-structed on less land per dwelling unit and need not be affected by the cost of land to the sarne extent. There has also been a shortage of rnortgage fironey to support dwelling construction" _{Single dwellings are prornoted} and financed in different ways frorn apaftrnents, the forrner usually being constructed for sale to individual owners while the latter are held as comrrrercial ventures on a rental basis. There is every possibility, with a change in the availability of rrtoney, that the two kinds of venture will be affected differently, _{thus altering the kind and relative cost of the} ac c ornfiIodation offered.

It will be recognized that a city governrnent can, through control of serviced land and perhaps also through tax policies or city ) zoning policies, _{affect the balance between single dwellings and} apart-rnents. _{It is also evident tjrat Federal Governrnent policies can affect}

z o

-the availability of serviced land, the supply of rnortgage fironey, interest rates and even the general clirnate for investrnent, which can significantly _{influence the supply situation as between single} dwellings and apartrrrents and thus the choices people rnay have open to thern. Thus, having begun hopefully to find sorrre basis for pre-dicting the kinds of dwellings people rnay choose over the next 60 years, one is stopped short by uncertainty of what peoplest choices will be over even the next two or three years. It rnust be conclud.ed, further, _{that choices can be affected significantly by the actions of} governrnents.

Despite what has been said it is probable that the pro-portion of apartrnents to single dwellings will continue to increase for sorne tirne at least in rnany of the larger urban centres. It is interesting _{to note that already the recognition of this trend has} produced further changes in the choices being offered. While apart-rnent owners are publicizing special features such as balconies,

sauna baths, swirnrning pools, gardens and recreation centres, sorne housebuilders _{are offering novel arrangefirents of housing rrnits}

including single detached houses in integrated group designs providing recreational _{areas, swimrni::g poo1s, landscaping and other special} features in cornrnon.

It is irnpossible to avoid the conclusion that the auto-mobile plays a large part in the choice! of kind and location of housing as well as rrrany other types of buildings. New single housing rnust be constructed for the rnost part on the Iess expensive land on the outskirts of cities. This introduces a transportation problern, which is usually resolved today by the use of private autornobiles. one norrnally expects to find apartrnents in the centres of cities where it rnay not be necessary or desirable to have private autornobiles, but apartrnents are currently being constructed in large nu-rnbers on the edges of cities, thus bringing ownership of an autornobile into the choice of location in rnuch the sarne way as for housing developrnents. The suitability of the autornobile as transportation depends in turn on the traffic problerns created.

Certainly autornobiles are having a profound effect on our cities, prornoting decentralization, freeing people frorn the need to live close to their work, and prornoting the one-storey drive-in

type of business or rnanufacturing establishrnent. A11 these things are rnatters of choice, greatly conditioned by tJre adequacy of the traffic f a c i l i t i e s p r o v i d e d b y s t r e e t s , r o a d s , p a r k i n g areas and public trans-portation. _{These in turn are aknost exclusively under the control of}

rnunicipal governrnents, either alone or jointly with their

respective provincial governrnents. Thus, the physical forrn of our cities is inevitably influenced greatly by what goverrurlents do on behalf of the citizens of the community it dealing with trans-portation facilities.

Cities and the buildings in thern can be influenced even rnore directly by building and zoning bylaws. Every city has a building bylaw that sets out the building code to be followed in the construction of all buildings" Such building codes are con-cerned prirnarily with the establishrnent of rninirnurn levels of safety in respect of structure, fire, and health, but the building bylaws of which they are a Part rnay go beyond these rnatters"

Zoning regulations, which rnay be included in building bylaws or set out separately, are used to estabtish areas or zones within a city where particular kinds of enterprises will be prohibited. In this way the delineation of appropriate areas for residential, cornrnercial, and industrial activities is achieved so that an orderly and broadly controlled developrnent of the city can resul! in accordance with rnunicipal planning. Lirnits rnay be set on the rnaxilnurn heights of buildings that can be constructed, on the size or floor area of building

in relation to lot atea, on the afiIount or proportion of private parking area that will be established, and on a variety of other rnatters.

Such limits, prohibitions, and requirernents rnay be varied appropri-ately for different areas of the city.

These kinds of regulations are essential instrurnents for the resolution and control of the conflicts that can arise between private and public interests and between the individual and the group in the use of land and the provision and use of buildings within the city lirnits. They rnay also be ernployed in positive ways to influence city developrnent, but whether this is intended or not they inevitably becorne powerful factors in shaping the kind, forrn, and location of buildings within a city. Their irnplications rrlay be so far-reaching that it is not always possible to predict at the tirne they are irnposed just what their ful1 effect will be.

A t s o t o b e r e c o g n i z e d a t t h i s s t a g e i s t h e d i r e c t c o n -tribution to the buildings of a city represented by the construction of schools, hospitals, churches, libraries, city halls, and other rnunicipal buildings, the nature of which can be influenced largely by the

z 2

-corTrfirunity. We can recognize also the influence of the decisions rnade in the use, acquisition, and disposition of land by the city.

'We

see then that the nature of buildings in a city can be influenced in rnany ways by the city governrnent acting through and on behalf of the citizens. These ways rnay be direct or indirect but are always under the control of the city. It seerns inappropriate in this discussion of building to atternpt to predict what the future changes in these factors will be" Let us return then, lrrore hope-fully, in our search for a basis for predicting future trends to a consideration of inJluences beyond the control of the people of a city thernselves.

The rnost obvious and perhaps rnost intriguing possibility for change is the advance of technology" In an age that has brought television, high-speed flight and travel in space one asstlrnes, naturally, that drarnatic changes are also possible in buildings. The technology is already available to provide alrnost anything, within lirnits, that one could want, provided always that objectives are frarned in sufficiently broad terrns so as not to lirnit too drastically the possibility of finding ways of accornplishing the desired end result. The things that are irnpossible are those so narrowly conceived or circurnscribed that no way can be found within the content of naturers laws by which they can be accornplished" It is alrnost a paradox that rnany srnall and apparently sirnple things rnay turn out to be difficult or irnpossible. W-e expect shortly to see rnen fly to the rrroon but we cannot and never will be able to support the Ernpire State Building on top of an egg" We can build a s k y s c r a p e r 1 0 0 s t o r e y s h i g h b u t w e h a v e n o t y e t f o u n d a g o o d g e n e r a l -purpose sealant with which to caulk the joints in its walls.

The listing of what is possible i:r innovations in building can be an entertaining exercise but gives little indication of the changes that are likely to occur, unless one considers at the sarne tirne the actual cost and the acceptable cost" Let us turn for an exarrrple to the question of talt buildings. It is now the skyscraper era in Canada, with 2 5 - t o 5 0 - s t o r e y b u i l d i n g s b e i n g c o n s t r u c t e d a c r o s s t h e c o u n t r y .

Technically there is no fixed lirnit to going considerably higher, for the n e c e s s a r y t e c h n o l o g y w a s e s t a b l i s h e d r n o r e t h a n 3 5 y e a r s a g o . M a n y of the technical problerns increase in difficulty with increasing height, but the real deterrninant is an econornic one since the increasing cost

per square foot of floor space rnust be weighed against the higher rents that will be paid because of the prestige value. 'While the nrrrnber of taller buildings will probably increase, it is very un-Iikely that any large proportion of the cornlrlercial space in a city will be provided in this way in the next few decades.

The use of glass in the exterior walls of rnodern buildings is another exalrlple. A strong trend toward the provision of a large proportion of glass was forced by a rnarked subjective

preference that developed. There are serious technical and econornic consequences of this trend which, it rnust be adrnitted, were not fully or generally appreciated until after the practice was well established-Sorne of the associated problerns of visual and therrnal discornfort and the increased cost of air-conditioning are now being partially relieved by further advances in technology. The preference' though now sorne-what rnoderated, still exists despite the very substantial increases in building costs usually involved.

It rnay be seen, that the significance of the new techno-logical possibilities rnust be judged in terrns of the technical or

frrnctional advantage they offer, the extent of the subjective preference that can be developed in their favour, and their cost. These are also the essential elernents in rnany kinds of business ventures. They are often difficult to assess or predict in advance and rnay be rneasurable only in terrns of the ultirnate success of the venture. Despite this difficulty of assessrnent, which faces every rnanufacturer of building

rnaterials and cornponents, it rnay be possible to identify sorne possibilities f o r c h a n g e .

W-e can expect a general steady irnprovernent in alrnost all aspects of building techlology, in the properties of the rnaterials and cornponents offered by rnanufacturers, and in the ability to design both broadly for the building as a whole as well as for the various

specialist fields. There will be rnarked irnprovernents in the ability to assess and predict the perforlrrance of rnaterials and cornponents,

and of the building as a whole, as well as to cornrnunicate such inforrnation to those who have need of it.

We can expect that rnore effort will be directed toward a c h i e v i n g l e s s c o s t l y b u i l d i n g s t h r o u g h i n c r e a s e d c o n s i d e r a t i o n a t t h e design stage of the problerns of the contractor. On the contractorts

2 4

-side we can expect an increase in rnechanization on-site and better planning of work,

There will be increasing requirernents for irnproved knowledge about various aspects of building, if only because of the new problerns that will arise as changes are introduced. There will be a need for better education and training of the people involved at various levels of the construction industry as a who1e.

\4Ie rnay expect shiJts in the cornpetitive positions of various kinds of rnaterials, cornponents, and techniques as conditions change. Econornic considerations, particularly those based on initial cost, will be a dominant factor in prornoting changes, but increased attention will be paid to the econornic irnplications of rnaintenance and o p e r a t i n g c o s t s a s w e l 1 .

All of the activities that go toward the provision of buildings will have to be expanded to accornrnodate the needs for increase. At the sarne tirne, irnprovernent in our standard of living is possible only if we produce firore per trran, or, in other words, if we reduce costs.

Thus there will be need both for increased production and increased productivity in the building industry. These are already urgent rnatters in rnany countries of the world" Much attention is being directed in the first instance to the possibilities of reducing the proportion of labour used on the building site through increased prefabrication in factories, or in short increased industrialization of building.

A parallel has been drawn, sornetirnes inappropriately, between the rnass production of autornobiles and the construction of

buildings. _{Buildings because of size and weight will always be assernbled} on-site. _{No two buildings are identicaln if only because of variations} in foundation and other site conditions" Most of the rnaterials used in buildings today 41s erlready rnass produced elsewhere and transported to the site for erection. Any extension of industrialization rnust rrrean, therefore, the rnanufacture of larger and larger pieces i.n factories.

None of this is new in principle. Large steel cornponents have long been shop-fabricated, and there has been a great increase in the last few years in the provision of large building elernents rnade of reinforced or prestressed concrete" Much of the rnechanical equiprnent for buildings is now provided in packaged units, and has always represented a high degree of prefabrication.

If this trend is to be accelerated a mr-rnber of associated developrnents will be necessary. Increased standardization in design, rnanufacture, and construction will be necessary to reduce the ntrrnber of different sizes of cornponents and thus increase the nurnber of

identical units that can be rnade and sold. Sorne standardization rnay have to be introduced into building plans.

Progress toward increased industrialization has already been carried quite far in Scandinavia and Finland, in Great Britain

and on the Continent" There is rnuch experirnentation, and rnany building systerns are being developed and used. Much of this work is based extensively on the use of concrete for structural elernents and for floor, wall, and roof panels. There are those who look forward to the day when i t w i l l b e p o s s i b l e t o s e l e c t f r o r n c a t a l o g u e s a l l t h e p a r t s n e c e s s a r y t o construct a building.

Although there is no doubt that industrialization can reduce the labour required on the construction site, it is not yet clear whether 3rr over-?11 increase in productivity, and therefore a real cost reduction, can be effected. Governrnents in sorne countries are, for various reasons' actively prornoting industrialization of building, but it is probable that a very considerable shift toward it will occur naturally under conditions in

Canada. W'e rnay take for granted the fact that rnaterials and techniques requiring a large proportion of hand labour on site will gradually be replaced" Unit rrlasonry, for exarnple, witt be challenged increasingly by precast concrete and other kinds of factory-rnade panels.

Changes can be expected in the design of buildings to effect reductions in the labour and other costs involved in the rnaintenance and operation of buildings as well as in their construction. We rnay expect to see increased rnechanization in such operations as building and window cleaning" The autornatic operation of building heating and cooling systerns and the associated equiprnent will be extended. Electronic devices like srnall cornputers will be ernployed increasingly in rnonitoring and control operations. The selection of finishes, coverings, and claddings will also be influenced.

We rnay expect irnprovernents in the properties of the steel and concrete frorn which the rnain structural parts of our buildings will continue to be rnade. Even greater irnprovernents can be e><pected in the forrns the cornponents will take to achieve the necessary perforrnance at the lowest costs. Wood, though still used extensively as a natural product,

2 6

-already appears in a nurnber of rnore highly refined forrns as larninated structural rnernbers and as plywood and chipboard. In the forrn of paper it is widely used in a variety of surfacing rnaterials, and is often cornbined in one forrn or another with other rnaterials in the rnanufacture of various kinds of sheets and panels.

Much rnay be expected of plastics, since there is an alrnost unlirnited possibility of developing new substances having a variety of different properties. Manujactured products, resulting frorn cornplex chernical processes, will always be relatively

costly on a per pound basis corrlpared with nlany of the colnrnon buitding rnaterials. They do not offer good properties for structural uses by thernselves and for this reason, in addition to their cost they are unlikely to provide a serious challenge for rnajor structural applications'

They will continue to be used., increasingly, where unusual or special results can be obtained with relatively srnall arnounts of rnaterial at costs that are acceptable. Such applications involve their use as ad.hesives, sealants, insulating rnaterials, coatings of all kinds,

as floor and wa]l coverings, and as srnall corrlponents in which appear-ance and forrn are irnPottant"

Plastics can be used in structural forrns in which high perforrnance can be obtained with relatively srnall weights of rnaterial'

They can be rnore readily used in cornbination with other rnaterials to forrn the cores of light, high-perforrnance panels and other elernents providing structural and other capabilities.

This trend toward the developrnent of higher perforrnancr: building elernents using srnaller quantities of new and irnproved rnateria'ls

in better ways can be expected to continue" The advantages, however, rnay have to be weighed against such disadvantages as the increased deflection,p, vibrations, fire and srnoke hazards that rnay result frorn rnaterials that are cornbustible, and the increase in sound transrnission and loss of fire resistance when lighter colrrponents are used for walls and floors separating occupancies. Much of the rnajor and hidden

structural parts of buildings will continue to be rnade of steel and concrete' but the cladding will be provided by a great variety of rnaterials in the forrn of thin sheets or panels that can be varied as desired in colour, t e x t u r e a n d o t h e r p r o P e r t i e s .

The forrn of cities buildings in thern can be and will

and the nature and distribution of the continue to be greatly influenced, though

indirectly, by governrnent actions in respect of rnonetary and housing policies and by urban transportation. Strong and rnore direct influences can be exerted as desired through regulations in the forrn of rnunicipal bylaws covering the use of land and the design of buildings.

Within this frarnework of influences the developrnent of buildings is further strongly conditioned by the choices of people, through which econornic and other incentives are brought to bear.

Technological advances serve only to increase the range of possibilities. In the end it is people and their preferences that will largely deterrnine the nature of the buildings of the future.