AFRICAN POPULATION STUDIES
No. 4
ST/ECA/SER.A/2
UNFPA PROJECT Ho. RAP/79/Pl^
INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION,
POPULATION TRENDS AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS FOR AFRICA
AFRICAN POPULATION
STUDIES SERIES No. 4
UNITED NATIONS
ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR AFRICA
Addis Ababa 1981
ihH-tW Urn i rmtom.mr.1Wi]
30
LIBYAN ARAI C JAMAHtMYA
j I / NIGERIA j C
/Uganda)
.■ kaupau ^' KENYA
CAPE VERDE
*o
•_ K IH»MUIA
SEYCHELLES <•« •
1CT0KA
-E
- «*»0'l -
•> *•
REUNION
\MAURITIUS
>0 \100 SOOil
INTEFNATIONAL MIGRATION IN AFRICA
General Demography Section Population Division
Economic Coinmission for Africa
AFRICAN POPULATION STUDIES SERIES No. 4
CONTENTS
FOREWORD (i)
A. INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION IN AFRICA
Chapters
1. Introduction
2. Sources and Quality of Data
3. Volume, patterns, determinants and trends
The North African Subregion (i) Volume and Trends (ii) Causes of Migration
(iii) Consequences of Migration (iv) Overview
Subsaharan Africa
The West African Subregion (i) Causes of Migration
(ii) Volume, Trends and characteristics (iii) Consequences and Overview
The South African Subregion (i) Volume, Trends and Causes (ii) Consequences of Migration
The Eastern Subregion
(i) Volume, Trends and Causes (ii) Consequence and Overview
(iv)
1 16 30 31 31 35 33 41 46 47 47 52 58
73 73 85 89 89 99
Para - 15 - 29 - 105 - 45 - 34 - 37 - 40 - 45 - 105 - 72 - 51 - 57 - 72
- 88 - 84 - 88 -102 - 98 -102
Chapters Para
The Central Subregion 103 - 105
4. The problems of estimation, refugees and brain drain, government policies and the
role of ECA 106 - 137
(i) Migration Estimation 106 - 107
(ii) Refugees 108 - 112
(ill) The Brain Drain 113
(iv) Government Policies 114 - 121
(v) The Role of ECA 122 - 137
5. Overview, Recommendations and Research
Priorities 138 - 171
Summary 139 - 156
(ii) Recommendations 157 - 168
(iii) Research Priorities 169 - 171
REFERENCES
(v)
LIST OF TABLES
1. Distribution of migrant workers from Maghreb countries to Europe.
2. Migrant workers in the Arab region by country of employment and region of origin, 1975 (000s).
3. Socio-economic indicators of migration in North Africa and selected Arab states.
4. Foreign nationals by country of nationality and country of enumeration, censuses, circa 1975 (000s).
5. Wet migration estimate (000s) in selected West African countries, 1965-1975.
6. Socio-economic indicators of migration in West Africa.
7. Average numbers employed in the gold mines of the Republic of South Africa (European and African), 18S9-1977.
8. Labour migrants in the Republic of South African mines and Zimbabwe by origin.
9. Sources of African labour in the Republic of South Africa by country of origin, employed at end of each year by affiliates of the chamber of mines (000s).
10. Sources of African labour in the Republic of South Africa by country of origin, employed by affiliates of chamber of mines (expressed as a percentage of the total number employed at 31 December ).
11. Socio-economic indicators of migration in Southern Africa.
12. Estimated number of refugees in Africa of concern to the UNHCR as of 31/12/75.
13. African refugees, 1978-1979.
14o Migration of Professional, technical and related workers from LDCs the UK and the USA from early 1960s to 1972.
(vi)
B. POPULATION TRENDS AND POLICIES IN ECA MEMBER STATES 1970-2000
Chapters Para
1. Introduction 1-9
2. Demographic situation in Africa as assessed in 1370 10 " 32
3. 2.1 General remarks 10 - 15
2.2 Problems of estimating total population 16 - 17 2.3 Accuracy of the reported age-sex distribution 18 2.4 Problems of estimating the vital rates 19 - 23 2.5 Estimates of the total population 24 - 25 2.6 Estimates of the growth rate components 26 - 27 2.7 The least developed ECA member states 28 - 32 3. Assumptions for the projections 33 - 42
3.1 Total population 33
3.2 Fertility assumptions 34 - 37
3.3 Mortality assumptions 38 - 39
3.4 Derivation of age-sex population distribution 40 - 41
3.5 Migration assumptions 42
4. Future prospects
4.1 Trends in the total population 43 - 51 4.2 Trends in the components of growth 52 - 53 4.3 Effect of growth on age-sex 54 - 57 4.4 Overall effects of the projected trends in
the total population 58 - 59
5. Population Policies 60-97
5.1 General considerations 60 - 62
5.2 Needed demographic data 63 - 66
5.3 Prevailing government perceptions on
population policy 67 - 73
5.4 Correlates of population and economic growth 74 - 87 5.5 Desiderata of a comprehensive population
policy 88 - 97
6. Summary and Recommendations 98 -106
Annex 1 Tables of Estimates Annex 2 Tables of Assumptions Annex 3 Tables of Results
(vii)
LIST OF TABLES
1.1 Status of population information for ECA member states.
1.2 Estimates of UN age-sex accuracy index for selected ECA member states.
1.3 Available estimates of GRR, e and annual growth rates for ECA member states,
1-4 Selected estimates of the demographic situation by subregion in the ECA member states around 1970.
2.1 Assumed levels of GRR for ECA member states, 1970/2000.
2.2 Assumed levels of e° for ECA member states, 1970/2000.
2.3 Fertility decline schemes (50 year transition).
2.4 (a) Percentage decline between onset value of GRR and final value, 1.03.
2.4 (b) Percentage decline between onset value of GRR and final value, 0.9.
2.5 Working model of mortality decline.
2.6 Assumed levels of net migration (000s) for ECA member states.
3.1 Projected total population (by sex) ir ECA member states, 1975-2000.
3.2 Projected vital rates for ECA member statess 1970-2000.
3.3 Projected population proportions by broad age-sex groups in ECA member states, 1970-2000.
3.4 Annual growth rates implied by the projected total population for ECA member states by subregions, 1970-2000.
3.5 Schema of the demographic data included in the development plans of ECA member states.
3.6 Status of government perceptions of and policies on fertility level and estimates of GRR and r (%) per selected ECA member
states.
3.7 Socio-economic and demographic indicators for ECA member states.
3.8 Results of regression analysis with percent population growth rate (1975/80) as the criterion variable.
3.9 Results of regression analysis with CDR (1975/80) as the criterion variable.
3.10 Results of regression analysis with IMR (1975) as the criterion variable.
3.11 Results of regression analysis with CBR (1975/80) as the criterion variable.
3.12 Results of regression analysis with percent annual growth rate of GNP (1960/78) as the criterion variable.
(viii)
FOREWORD
It is my pleasure to introduce the fourth volume of the African Population Studies Series which has provided since its inception one of the several media for diseminating the results of research undertaken in the field of population by the ECA secretariat. The series also provides a vehicle for publishing reports of conferences, seminars and expert group meetings organized by the secretariat.
Accordingly, the first issue in the series contains a report of the seminar on the Application of Demographic Data and
Analysis to Development Planning organized by ECA in 1969. The second issue contains the report, the recommendations and some of the papers presented at the seminar on the Techniques of Evaluation of Basic Demographic Data jointly organized by the ECA- United Nations Regional Institute for Population Studies
(Accra, Ghana) and the Ghana Government in 1973. The third issue presents the two studies prepared by the Fertility and Mortality Studies Section of the ECA Population Division.
Like the third issue, the material contained in this volume comprises two studies prepared by the General Demography Section of the ECA Population Division. The first of these studies is a review of the causess volume, patterns, trends and consequences of international migration in Africa while the second study is on population trends and policies in ECA member states.
It is my hope that, given their scope-, the conclusions and findings of both studies would considerably enhance increased awareness of the population problem as well as the integration of population variables into the overall socio-economic
development planning within the region.
Adebayo Acledeji
United Nations Under-Sectetary General and
Executive Secretary Economic Commission for Africa
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1. Although reliable information on international migration is admittedly poor and scanty, the determinants and consequences of the phenomenon are fairly well known at least generally. Among the common causes of international migration reported in the literature, the chance
to improve the standard of living of the movers is by far the greatest of the
motivations (Thomas, 1959). Changes in the immigration laws of most contemporary developed nations (DCs) in the past two decades especially those
focussing on the relaxation of restrictions on race and country of origin
simultaneous with emphasis on skills have greatly exacerbated the so- called "brain drain" (Appleyard, 1977) from the Third World. However,this was largely true prior to 1975. Since then, the trend has decelerated.
There is also the issue of the opening up of substantial differences in wages and standards of living among developing countries (LDCs). Important differences in economic growth among countries of the Third World have led to increased intra-regional migration in those areas.
2. With respect to the consequences of international migration, the literature makes a distinction between unskilled and skilled migrants.
In either case the analysis of the effects of such migration that has been done is at three levels - the sending countries, the receiving countries and the migrants with their families. Regarding the effects of international migration of the unskilled workers, it has been argued that from the point of view of the receiving countries, such workers are
oftern not badly needed and compete with native workers in areas of the labour market where unemployment is often highest. The point often raised
in this context is that where labour shortage is real, the receiving countrycould draw on the large reserve of women outside the labour force (Davis,
1974). On the one hand, one view is that unskilled migrant workersgenerally occupy employment levels that are being vacated by the native labour force as it moves into more skilled jobs involving less personal hardship. On the other hand, unemployment among native labour in the main occupations of the unskilled migrant workers is generally not high
(Kayser, 1977). There are many more varied conclusions but probably definite conclusions about the economic repercursions of sizeable inflows of unskilled migrant workers are not available to date.
3. For the sending countries the emigration of unskilled migrant workers is sometimes thought to constitute a welcome relief to unemployment, a source of foreign exchange and a means by which to increase the skill level of labour (Tabbarah, 1977). Of course there are the longer term problems related to the eventual reintegration of such migrants as well as the
opportunity costs that may be attached to having some of the country's
most able workers spend the prime years of their productive lives abroad.In terms of effects on the migrants themselves and their families, Bohning (1977) has discussed the serious dimensions of the problems created by the policies of DCs to regulate migration consistent with their need for foreign labour including insecurity of employment as well as the separation of
families and other related issues. The questions of which country benefits;
- 2 -
which country loses; or whether both gain or lose from the brain drain constitute intricate problems in contemporary welfare economics. On the one hand, it seems clear that the DCs are benefiting from the immigration of highly qualified manpower from the LDCs which are thus losing very costly resources. On the other hands there is also the issue that many of the highly qualified emigrants are specialized in fields where few or no employment opportunities exist in their home countries, at least at wage levels commensurate with the living standards these individuals aspire.
4. Resides the causes and consequences of international migration available evidence also indicates that prior to the Second World War and shortly afterwards, the main international migratory streams were from Europe to the New World. In the 195O*s net emigration from Europe amounted to about 3 million? in the 1960's the outward balance was virtually
eliminated. Instead, there were an estimated 3.2 million immigrants from the world's less developed regions living in the industrialized countries of Northern and Western Europe, Northern America and Oceania as at 1960.
In recent years, the direction has shifted from the less developed to the industrialized countries largely as a product of differential economic and demographic conditions between the more and less developed nations (United
Nations, 1979b).
5. In 1974., the number of migrants from the LDCs living in the DCs was estimated at 9.5 million (United Nations, 1979a). However, in the 1970's, European international migration was confined to intraregional movements vis-a-vis the intercontinental movements of the 1960s. Consistent with the new trend of the 1970s, short distance migration in Europe took place between the less developed countries of the Southern region and more industrialized countries in the Western and Northern regions. Surplus labour in the former region (i.e. Southern) was absorbed by labour short ages in the latter regions (i.e. Western and Northern). The higher demand for labour in Western and northern regions attracted more immigrant workers even beyond the confines of the continent (eg. from Turkey and Northern Africa). A more recent development is a reversal of migration streams in Europe mainly caused by the world's energy crisis which imposed stricter controls on immigration in the early part of the 197O*s. Consequentlys Italy and Greece9 for example} which were previously net exporters of labour to Northern and Western Europe., aov experience a net balance of immigration. North America has also set a quota for all nationalities to control the free flow of immigration (UN, 1979a). Thus, international migration in Europe has undergone three distinct trends. The first was massive emigration to the new world. The second was Che importation of labour from its confines. The third phase is one of self -- sufficiency and control.
6. Although relatively little has been written on the nature, causes and patterns of international migration in Africa due largely to data deficiencies, the observed pattern of international migration in Africa has also developed along the same lines as that of contemporary developed Western Europe. The first wave of international migration in Africa
- 3 -
comprised movements that continued since the precolonial period and in a sense, were largely intercontinental; the next wave which originated during the colonial era was mostly interregional in character and pattern;
and the current post independence movements are mostly characterized by controls. African international migrations in each of these three cate gories have distinctinve characteristics though they are by no means independent of each other.
7. Since the abolition of the slave trade in the 19th century, few Africans have left the continent for permanent residence abroad. Intra- continental migration has been a much more common phenomenon following the emergence of colonization and the introduction of a market economy requiring wage labour. Regarding intercontinental migration, the most important of the 19th thru the middle of the 20th century was the immigra
tion of Euroepan settlers. From an estimated population of 0.135 million in 1835, European population increased to about 6 million by 1960 com- rising 3 million in the Republic of South Africas over 1.5 million in North Africa and over 0.2 million in present day Zimbabwe (United Nations.
1973: pp. 234 - 237). The immediate post-war years also saw sizeable movements of European migrants into other African states viz the Portuguese into Angola and Mozambique; Belgians into the Congo and French into the territories of French West Africa. These Europeans later left in large numbers after these states had gained political independence. Probably over one million Europeans left North Africa. In addition to those who came as indentured labourers, there was a sizeable unassisted migration of Indians to East Africa. Thus, in the East African States of Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda, Indians constituted the largest non-native population group outnumbering the Europeans in a ratio of about 4.5 to 1 in 1964 (UN, 1973, p. 237).
8. From available evidence precolonial migration in Africa involved movements of nomadic pastoralists in search of grazing land during the wet
season mainly in the lowlands of the horn of Africa and the Sahelian zone; movement of traders across state boundaries; and, pilgrim move-' ments originating from the Northern areas of West Africa across the Southen:
margins of the Sahara Desert en route to Mecca (Gould, 1974). The v?or- shipers travelled on foot until they reached the Red Sea Coast whereas some remained for a better part of the year working in the plantations of the Sudan. It is pertinent to note as well that slave trade, a forced intercontinental migration involving millions of people between the
mid-17th and mid-19th centuries, mainly towards the Americas was the most important factor accounting for international migration in Africa before the dawn of the 20th century.
9. Migration originating in the colonial period and continuing u{ to the present time were movements of workers to the agricultural crop plantations and mines estiablished by the colonial governments. They were not conceived as international migrations because there were no nation states during this period. Rather there were large areas of colonial empires exposed to free movement of labour ?-vl tribal identity rather than nationality determined by migration status. Furthermore,
- 4 -
areas of rich natural resources and of abundant manpower reserves were clearly identified within each and sometimes between colonial rule
(Gould, 1974). In the French colonies of West Africa for example, Ivory Coast and Senegal were marked as areas of relatively rich natural re
sources with several development projects. On the other hand, Upper Volta, Mali and Togo were the major suppliers of labour to those colonies.
Similarly, in the British West Africa, Ghana, Sierra Leone and the Gambia obtained a substantial amount of labour migrants from Nigeria and the French colonies of Togo, Mali and Upper Volta. In the Eastern and Southern African colonies of the British Empire, Tanzanian and
Rwandese workers were recrutied for the plantations in Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania; and Tanzanian, Mozambican, Malawian, Swazi, Lesotho, etc.
workers were recrutied for the mines of South Africa and Rhodesia and their plantations. These migrants were predominantly unskilled labourers in agriculture, industry and services, and their movements, often perio dically instigated by colonial governors, were tantalized by economic benefits.
10. The coming of independence reduced the flow of migrants and brought about new movements affecting the economic and political life of each African state (Gould, 1975). It changed the pattern of migration by reducing free international (or intertribal) movements by the elaborate development of visa and passport regulations, or customs and controls of the need for foreign workers to obtain work permits, or restrictions on the repatriation of savings. Such indirect measures including the emphasis on sovereignity and national integrity, the use of separate currencies, official languages that have emphasized differences between states, etc.
have also been important factors in reducing flows to a level much lower than before. However, the lack of statistical information on international migration before political independence in most of the African countries precludes a strong evidence of this new pattern. The expulsion of hundreds of thousands of foreign nationals from Ghana by the Alien compliance order
(1969) is a case in point.
11. Secondly, political upheavals have also added to the international movements of Africans. The disturbances preceding Algerian independence brought about a sizeable exodus of Algerians who sought refuge in Tunisia and Morocco. Over 180,000 of these refugees were repatriated in May - July 1962 (UN 1973: p. 236). In March 1964, there were 153,000 refugees from Rwanda in Burundi, Congo, Tanzania and Uganda; about the same number of refugees from Angola were also found in the Congo. Other movements on a smaller scale have occured among West African countries following in dependence. On the whole, the United Nations High Commission for Refugees estimated that there were over a million refugees in a number of countries of Africa in 1975, and this increased to more than 2 million persons in 1978-79. The areas most affected by this new development are those in the Eastern, Central and Southern subregions.
- 5 -
12. While some of these migrations have been of the traditional type of nomadic pastoralists, they have been increasingly the consequence of three factors: the poor land resources available to African tribes; the accelera ting rate of population growth; and, the attraction of wage labour in areas of relatively rapid economic growth. On the whole, the general pattern of the international migration of Africans during this century is thus one of very considerable movements involving several millions of persons across political boundaries which bear little or no relation to ethnic or cultural
zones. The system of this migration has provided an important safety valve against the pressure of population on scarce resources. On the other hand, it has also disrupted family life. Sometimes it has led to a pattern in which a majority of the able bodied men might be away for a substantial part of their adult life thus contributing to economic and social stagnation in the home communities. However, the establishment of new states,
opposition to policies which associate migration with segregation and restrictions upon economic and social rights as well as the emphasis upon economic development plans within each new nation are tending to restrict movements across national boundaries and to accentuate internal movements from rural to urban areas.
13. Available statistical data are too meagre to measure with any degree of accuracy these various flows of international migrations within Africa.
As a conservative estimate it has been estimated that at least 5 million people are involved each year in migrant labour movements in Subsaharan Africa (UN, 1973: p. 235). Only a few African countries publish
immigration and emigration statistics collected at ports of entry. This information when available does not always present an accurate picture because such statistics are heavily dominated by short term movements.
If processing procedures are imperfect, then longer term migration may be difficult to sort out with any accuracy. The basic source of data on international migration is population censuses which include questions on place of birth and nationality. But some African countries in which international migration is an important phenomenon (eg. Ethiopia, Chad and Zaire) have not conducted a census to date. Even in countries where census data exists, some of the censuses did not ask the appropriate questions while others fail to publish the necessary tabulations. There is also the fact that census data does not permit an estimate of the flow of migrants. Many other related problems are discussed by Miro and
Potter (1980).
14. From the available sources, the directions of international migration in Africa are known with greater certainty than the numbers involved
(Prothero, 1968). In Central and Eastern Africa, the main movements have been towards the South. The Republic of South Africa and present day Zimbabwe have been the two chief immigrant areas for labour. Migration patterns in Eastern, Central and Southern Africa are more complicated than in the West (UN, 1973: p. 235). Tanzania and Uganda, for instance, have taken immigrants from Burundi and Rwanda but they have also lost workers elsewhere. Cotton - growing areas of Uganda, highland farms in Kenya, Sisal estates in Tanzania, copper-belt in Congo and Zambia and gold mines in the Republic of South Africa have been the chief centres attracting
- 6 -
migrants from the poorer areas. Organized schemes of labour recruitment have played an important role in drawing workers to the Republic of South Africa.
15. The objective of this study is to present an overview of all existing documentation of types, causes and consequences of all past, present and possibly future international migration in the African region.
Put differently the study purports to investigate five basic research questions.
(i) What sources of information on international migration exist in Africa? Are there any limitations in such sources?
(ii) Relative to other world regions and in the light of con temporary knowledge, what are the types, causes and consequences of international migration in Africa?
(iii) Are there any subregional differentials in (ii) and if so, what are these?
(iv) What gapss if any, exist in such knowledge?
(v) What proposals can be made regarding future research on international migration in the African region?
Analysis in the next chapter is focussed on the sources and quality of available data on international migration in the region. Chapter three spells out in some detail the volume, patterns, determinants and trends of international migration in the five subregions of the continent - North Africa, West Africa, South Africa and Central/East Africa. In the fourth chapter, a review of other characteristics of international migration
including the brain drain, refugee problems, population projections and government policies on international migration is presented. For each of these subregions, the role of the EGA secretariat in relation to the problems posed by the migration phenomenon is also highlighted. The last chapter presents an overview of the main discussions, the re commendations as well as priority areas of future research.
- 7 -
CHAPTER TWO
SOURCES AND QUALITY OF DATA
16. International migration in Africa is known to have great economic and social significance on the population from which the migrants originate and the population into which they migrate. It is also known that it involves millions of persons each year. However, the assessments of the magnitude and characteristics of the phenomenon are greatly handicapped by the paucity of reliable data. Presently;, there is no single source of information on international migration that can be used effectively by all countries.
Each of the three possible sources (border collection, registration and field inquiry) offers advantages and disadvantages in regard to the types of information it can provide and the requirements for its effective use.
Border collection and registration are the most appropriate sources for the assessment of the flow of migration on a continuous basis while registration and field inquiries are appropriate for the assessment of the immigrant stock 1/ . To date no country has complete freedom of choice in the sources it can use and must therefore operate within the limits of feasibility. In response to the UN study of national practices in the collection, tabulation and publication of international migration statistics, border collection (by land, air and sea) was the source most frequently indicated by African countries (UN, 1980: p. 9). This does not preclude the wide use that is being made of population censuses and surveys in this context.
17. Despite the outcome of the UN inquiry regarding national practices in this regard, control at land frontiers in Africa is far less effective than at seaports. Where passports are compulsory only for emigrants, one can expect a great deal of clandestine movement at land border crossing. Besides, continental frontiers cannot possibly be watched at every point particularly where there are no natural geographical barriers as in most African countries.
Equally the utility of data based on passports varies widely according to the rules regarding their validity - whether passports are obligatory only for migrants and whether they are necessary only for certain countries or for certain voyages. Little wonder then the Statistical Yearbooks of many African countries indicate only entry and exit by air and sea. Land border crossings Involving migrants from the neighbouring countries or the region are not recorded at checkpoints. Thus, the estimated volume of migration in census and sample surveys are at variance with migration data recorded by air and sea ports in a given period. Incomplete coverage is only part though admittedly the most important reason for the difference. But even assuming complete coverage., differences must arise due to variations in the definitions of "international migrants" in the two data collection systems in most countries. At the most, there is enough indication to believe that the available data collected by air and sea ports at the country level may be used for movements into and out of the African region. Even this is only published by a few countries of the region.
Xj United Nations_, Recommendations on Statistics of International Migration. Statistical Paper Series M. No. 67 (ST/ESA/STAT/SER.M/58), New York, 1980, pp. 9 - 12.
- 8 -
18. Thus, to date the existing principal sources of data on international
migration in Africa are population censuses and surveys. Both of thesesources, however, produce retrospective information on migratory movements of the people. Furthermore, census and survey data produce different results
if seasonal migration predominates in an area. In West Africa, for example,
where international migration is characterized by seasonal migration, censuses conducted during the dry season and the wet season are likely to yield varying information. On the other hand, in situations where migrants concentrate inspecific regions of a country, sample surveys would not give reliable infor
mation. Of these two sources (ie. censuses and surveys), the more reliable statistical source of information on international migration in the Africanregion is "stock" data obtained from population census tabulations that
distinguish between native and foreign born. The questions asked in thecensuses include place of birth, place of (usual) residence, former residence, nationality (ethnic group), country of origin and duration of residence in country of enumeration. It will be recalled that prior to the attainment of political independence around the 1960s, African countries had limited
experience with census taking. But following the African census programme
(1971) financed by UNFPA, the situation has changed. Except for Ethiopia,
Chad and Zaire, a population census in the modern sense has been carried out in every African country. Data for the present study were obtained from the censuses and surveys of the 1960s and 1970s as well as the registration of labour recruiting organizations in most of the countries in the region.19. The experience of African countries regarding the use of questions on place of birth, nationality, country of origin, place of previous residence will be examined later in this chapter. Regarding duration of residence, this question is generally intended to elicit information on life time migrants, short-term migrants, etc. Only a few African countries (eg. Morocco, 1971;
Ghana, 1970; Gabon, 1970; and, Mauritius, 1972) have so far asked this question in their latest census tf'. The only problem encountered related to the question of definition of duration in respect of respondents whose residence has been interrupted by periods of absence on studies or temporary assignments elsewhere. In general, most African countries adopted the rule that where an absence was for less than six months at a time, it did not interrupt the duration of residence at any given place; but where it was six months or more than, this was regarded as Interrupting the period of
residence at the given place. For students on studies outside the country, however, the position seems to have been less clear. No precise instructions appear to have been given in many enumerator's manuals on this point and in practice the application of the six months' rule varied from country to
country. Most countries, however, applied the six months1 limit rule rigidly.
2/ For details see "Study on Methods and Problems of the 1970
round of African Population and Housing Censuses", Paper presented at the Tenth Session of the Conference of African Statisticians (Addis Ababa, 17 - 22 October 1977), E/CN.14/CAS.10/15.- 9 -
20. Data on the duration of residence in the country of enumeration would indicate seasonal, short-term or permanent migrations of the migrants. As
a source of international migration statistics, it has several limitations 3/.
Since information is sometimes given by a respondent who does not know the duration of residence of all household members, a considerable number may be reported as unknown; the almost-universal problem of digital preference may also affect the quality of the reported data; the cohorts that arrived at the specified places (of enumeration) are decimated by two factors-further migration and deaths. Older cohorts are more affected by both factors and hence the computed rates will tend to decrease with increasing duration; a single question (on duration of residence) does not give any indication of
the place of origin of the in-migration to a given area and hence no information on out-migration or on net migration can be derived therefrom. Thus, the
data are not useful for the study of migration streams. Despite these
limitations the data on duration of residence are capable of yielding useful information on differences between areas in the average level for a given period of time and in the pattern of change with increasing duration.
21. With respect to place of usual residence, where the census was a de facto one, a question on place of usual residence was sometimes asked.
This was usually defined as the place where the respondent was living (for six months or more) at the time of the census or the place where the respondent has lived for less than six months but had the intention of continuing to stay for at least the following six months. Students in boarding schools or hostels were classified as staying with their parents or guardians in the place of their parents/guardians1 usual residence. Seasonal workers were also classified as staying in the place they usually return after the season.
There were minor variations from these general principles from country to country. Problems were encountered in the case of workers who move from place to place in search of work and do not settle in any particular place for a long enough period for that place to be referred to as their usual place of residence.
22. Data on flows are collected at border crossings and other ports of entry (seaports, airports) and can be compiled easily where entry is controlled and few people are involved (Prothero, 1979). In Africa, however, such data is very difficult to collect because it involves large numbers of people often illiterate and for the most part are unaware of the regulations of crossing borders which are poorly administered. Even such specific census questions (eg. "where were you living a year ago?"), expected to yield flows of migrants during the preceding year, has not been considered in the census of most African countries although it has long been recommended (UN, 1959). Existing instances of using such questions are few.
3/ United Nations Manual VI (N.Y. 1970), pp. 14-17.
- 10 -
23. In a study on methods and problems of the 1970 round of African population and housing censuses, the Statistics Division of ECA secretariat reports that among the African countries that asked the question on place of previous residence in their latest census 4/ are Algeria (1977), Benin (1979), Cameroon (1976), Congo (1974), Tunisia (1975), Morocco (1971), Ghana (1970), Senegal (1976), and Zambia (1969). According to the said study, there are two versions of this question. The first version refers to the place of previous residence in relation to the residence at the time of the census and the second is related to the place of previous residence at a specified period of time. The majority of countries used the first type of approach but a few countries (eg. Zambia) used the second type of approach. In the case of Zambia, the relevant question was: "where were you living this time last year?". The criticism against the first type of approach is that the data on the place of previous residence could refer to events, occuring over different periods of time. For example, a person who moved from one
locality to another 50 years ago and the person who moved only six months ago would in the absence of any supplementary information on duration of residence be classified in the same way. However, in the second type of question the residence at a certain point in time say five years ago would show the position of the population at the same time for everybody, and thus this makes it more meaningful for analytical purposes. In particular although the question yields data on migration flows, the main problem to a question concerning residence on a specified past is the suitable length of interval to use (1 year, 5 years or what?). Available evidence indicates that for purposes of population projections, 5 years is perhaps the most serviceable interval besides consideration of enough number of cases.
There is considerable discussion on the relative merit/demerit over the use of a shorter vis-a-vis a longer time interval 5/.
24. Data on stocks of migration are derived from census data. In the study just noted by the Statistics Division of ECA secretariat, several African countries asked the question on place of birth in their latest census 6/. In all the cases, place of birth was generally defined as the physical birth place of the respondent. In at least one case, however, birth place was defined as the place of usual residence of the respondent's
4/ For details see "Study on Methods and Problems of the 1970 round of African Population and Housing Censuses", Paper presented at the Tenth Session of the Conference of African Statisticians
(Addis Ababa, 17-22 October 1977), E/CN.14/CAS. 10/15°. see also Recensements Africans: lere Partie (Paris, 1980), Tableau 3.
5/ Ibid. pp. 19-23; see also Shryock H.S., op. cit., pp. 22-39.
6/ These include Algeria (1977), Morocco (1971), Sudan (1973), Tunisia (1975), Libya (1973), Benin (1979), Nigeria (1973), Sierra Leone
(1974), Niger (1977), Senegal (1976), Gambia (1973), Ghana (1970), Guinea Bissau (1970), Upper Volta (1975), Mali (1976), Liberia (1974), Ivory Coast
(1975), liauritania (1976), Togo (1970), Angola (1970), C.A. Republic (1975)s Cameroon (1976), Congo (1974), Gabon (1970), Somalia (1975), Madagascar (1975), Malawi (1977), Mozambique (1970), Uganda (1969), Tanzania (1978), Zambia
(1969), Mauritius (1972), Kenya (1969), Swaziland (1966).
- 11 -
mother at the time of birth. This was done in order to facilitate the analysis of the data with respect to internal migration in view of the fact that a number of women leave their usual place of residence to bring forth in either"a hospital or a maternity home outside her usual
place of residence or in the home of her mother or some other locality".
Most countries classified birth place by region or territory of birth and for those born outside the country, country of birth. At least one country, however, classified those who were born in the country not only by region of birth but also by urban or rural locality of birth. For most countries which obtained information on place of birth and place at time of census, the data obtained was classifiable into population by district of birth and district of enumeration. It should be mentioned that the only problem which was encountered in more than one country in relation to the classification of birth place data was in connection with region of birth when the region of birth at the time of enumeration differed from the region of birth at the time of the respondent's birth.
25. However, the question on place of birth allows identification of the numbers of people who were born abroad or are citizens of another country^
but it does not identify when they came to the country where they were enumerated. It does not identify patterns of flow that are related to a specific period. Many people who are identified by these data as inter national migrants may have been in the country where they were enumerated for most of their life. They may even be children of migrants and through this have citizenship of another country, though they may never themselves have been there. In general terms, data on stocks of foreigners or aliens identified by questions on citizenship in African censuses may present a misleading impression of the extent of relative recent international migration. It is also noted that the place of birth data could indicate
the number of persons born in and outside the country of enumeration.
Those born outside are supposed to be immigrants and those born in the country are assumed to be non-migrant resident population. However, of the persons born outside, some could possibly be nationals of the country under consideration: of those persons born in the country, some could have been children of immigrant parents who hold foreign nationality.
Although these two forces operate in opposite direction in the determination of migration status of a person, wrong inclusion in the former is
unlikely to counter-balance the omission in the latter, because in Africa many studies show that omissions of such persons exceeded wrong inclusion of migrants. Even if there were a quantitative balance in the omission and wrong inclusion of international migrants, some aspects in the study of international migration (such as the causes and consequences) would be greatly affected. Thus, place of birth data coupled with nationality (or ethnicity) could produce some information on the actual immigrants, retui'nees, persons born outside but hold nationality of the country of enumeration3 and persons born in the same country but hold foreign nationality.
- 12 -
26. As a source of international migration data, the use of birthplace statistics has also been criticized because it relates to a more remote data than does the usual migration question regarding residence at a fixed past date and hence there is more lack of knowledge on the part of respondents other than the person himself; the statistics do not take account of intermediate moves between time of birth and time of the census or of international migrants who have died; and, persons who have returned to live in their state of birth appear as non-migrants ]_/. Although these and other limitations of place of birth data have been discussed elsewhere, nevertheless, place of birth data (when available) can still fill important gaps in our knowledge about international migration in a given country.
They provide a broad historic picture of the main geographic migratory movement within the country.
27. The foregoing use of various questions at national censuses to estimate international migration have focussed essentially on countries of immigration. A new approach to the study of international migration has been proposed by many authorities on the subject. It involves making an in-depth multi-disciplinary investigation of the areas of emigration.
For a fuller understanding of the subject (especially the cause for migrating as well as the consequences it entails on both origin and destination), the proponents of this technique believe that migration is better understood if the analysis is based on the actual place of migrants.
For instance,IUSSP set up a committee to "examine the improvement of existing techniques for indirect measurement of international migration and to propose new system of data collection In a bid to measure the Intensity and
characteristics of migratory flows" (IUSSP, 1978). The committee has proposed two approaches for adoption at national censuses and/or surveys.
One of these is a proposal by Hill for the use of information on residence of Siblings to estimate emigration by age; the other is a proposal by Somoza for estimating the emigrant population by sex and age from special census questions &/.
28. Thus, instead of censuses, periodic sample surveys have become an important source of information including international migration for most African countries. This is not strange given the fact that even in
developed nations, where relevant data of reliable quality are available from censuses, vital registration and population registers(in some cases), there is still some dependence on sample surveys for purposes of obtaining more detailed and current information on the mode, pattern, motivations of migration as well as future migration intentions. In the developing countries with no reliable data from census and vital registration, sample surveys serve as the only source of detailed information on migration.
7/ Shryock, H.S., Population Mobility in the United States (Chicago, 1964), pp. 18-22.
j*/ For details of both procedures see IUSSP Papers No. 18, Indirect Procedures for estimating emigration (IUSSP, 1981), pp. 3-34.
- 13 -
Cases In point of the use of surveys in the study of international migration in Africa include the 1968-69 Tunisian and 1969-70 Algerian multi-round surveys which both attempted to study population movements by aeans of a specific survey which would allow an updating of the 1966 censuses and measure with reasonable accuracy the main demographic rates 9/« Other cases include sample surveys carried out in French- speaking countries between 1954 and 1964; the surveys on migration in the Ivory Coast and Ghana, 1958/60; and, the one year-survey of of the Mossi migrations in Upper Volta 10/.
29. In sum, the scope of the present study has been greatly hampered by the limitation of relevant data. Areas of significant amount of immigration and those of emigration are clearly identified, although a more detailed analysis on the causes and consequences of migration is limited. For the countries of known magnitude of migration, the volume, patterns, and trends of migration is examined in the next chapter which also highlights the distinct characteristic patterns of migration in the five subregions.
9J For details see International Migration, Proceedings of a
Seminar on demographic research in relation to International Migration(Buenos Aires, Argentina: 5-11 March 1974), pp. 56-62.
10/ Ibid.
- 14 -
CHAPTER THREE
VOLUME, PATTERNS, DETERMINANTS AND TRENDS
30. The discussion in Chapter two was focussed on the sources of data on international migration in the region. In this chapter, the volume,
determinants, patterns and trends of such migration will be examined for areas with pertinent information. For the purpose of the analysis the region is divided into two subzones, the North African subregion and Subsaharan Africa comprising the four subregions of West, Central, East and South Africa according to the UN 1975 country classification 1/.
The North African Subrefiions (i) Volume and Trends
31. The three Maghreb countries (Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia) of the Northern Africa subregion witnessed the emigration of substantial numbers of migrant workers to the more industrialized countries of Western Europe for several decades prior to the 1960s. In 1960, European censuses enu merated about 400,000 immigrant workers from Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia.
Available statistics indicate that this figure increased from 685,000 in 1972 to 727,000 in 1974 but declined to 619,000 in 1976 (Table 1). During the period 1972/76, at least 90 percent of these migrant workers went to France;
the proportion of Algerians first, increased from 58 percent in 1972 to 62 percent in 1974 before declining to 54 percent in 1976. In other words, by the mid-1970s, Algerians formed the bulk of the immigrant residents in France.
32. The trend of migration from Northern Africa to Europe, however, started to decline during the second half of the 1970s probably due to control of immigration in Western Europe and the emergence of countries in Northern Africa subregion demanding large amounts of labour force.
In 1976, for example, the number of labour immigrants in Europe from
the Maghreb countries declined to 618,900 (Table 1) or about 15 percent of the 1974 level. The data (Table 1) indicates that the decline in the total number of migrants was largely sequal to a decline in the total number of Algerian workers. The proportion of Algerians relative to all migrant workers fell from 62 percent to 54 percent between 1974 and 1976. The sharp drop in the proportion of Algerians was largely sequel to the
government halt on departures by September 1973. On the other hand, Moroccan workers in France, Belgium and the Federal Republic of Germany increased from about 24 percent of the total migrant workers in 1974 to about 32 percent in 1976. The number of Tunisian workers in Europe also increased slightly from about 13 to 14 percent during this period.
jL/ See for example, the World Population Situation in 1977
New beginnings and uncertain ends (UN, 1979), pp. 100-170.- 15 -
Country of Employment (by year)
1972 France Belgium FRG Total
1974 France Belgium FRG Total
1976 France Belgium FRG Total
Distribution of
Table 1
migrant Maghreb countries to
Algeria No.
394.
3.
2.
400.
450.
2.
2.
454.
331 3 1 336
0
.0 .0 0 .0
.1 .5 ,4 .0
%
98 0 0 100
99 0 0 100
98 1 0 100
.6 .8 .6 .0
.2 .4 .4 .0
.5 .1 .4 ,0
workers from Europe
Country
No.
165.
20.
15.
200.
145.
16.
15, 176,
152.
28, 15 195,
of Morocco
0 0 0 0
,0 ,0 .0 .0
.3 .0 .6 .9
%
82.
10.
7.
100.
82.
9.
8.
100.
77.
14.
8.
100,
L972/76
Origin
5 0 5 0
4 1 5 .0
.7 ,3 .0 .0
No
72.
12.
0.
85.
85.
1.
11.
97.
73.
2.
12.
87.
(No. in Tunisia
#
mom
00000,0 ,0 ,0 .0
%
85.
14.
0.
100.
87.
1.
11.
100.
83.
2.
13.
100.
000s)
3 1 6 0
6 0 4 0
,9 ,3 ,8 ,0
No.
632.
35.
18.
685.
680.
19.
23.
727.
556.
33.
29.
618.
Total
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
,4 5 ,0 ,9
%
92.
5.
2.
100.
93.
2.
3.
100.
89.
5.
4.
100.
3 1 6 0
5 6 9 0
9 4 7 0
Sources: United Nations IDEP Document IDEP/ET/R/2514 (Dakar, 1973), p . 8; Employment, Growth and Basic Heeds (IL0, Geneva, 1976), p. 127;
OECD Directorate for Social Affairs, Manpower and Education, SOPEMI, 1977
- 16 -
33. In effect during the 20th century, the Maghreb has on many occasions provided France with an additional pool of manpower in wartime or in periods of economic prosperity (1914-18; 1925-30 and 1945-50). After 1958, measures to facilitate the entry of foreigners, which had been adopted for demographic reasons, played only a secondary role; the acceleration of immigration from the Maghreb to France was due far more to economic growth and the needs of industry. At the end of the 1960s, this trend accelerated and began to involve larger numbers. From a study undertaken by the OECD the structure and causes of this massive emigration from the Maghreb to Europe as well as the effects and future policy proposals have been well underlined 2/.
34. The decline noted in the export of labour force to Western Europe from the Maghreb was accompained by massive export from Northern Africa to the oil- rich Arab States of the Arabian Peninsula and Persian Gulf and to the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya in North Africa itself. Results of a very recent set of
estimates in the Arab region 3/ are shown in Table 2. They indicate that there were some 1.8 million migrant workers in countries of that region in 1975.
The most important receiving countries were Libya and Saudi Arabia. About 27% of the total migrants came from Egypt, Sudan and the Maghreb. Egyptian migrant workers comprising about 82 percent of the total migrants from North Africa (Egypt, Sudan and Maghreb) seem to predominate the flow of migration into the Arab region with about 74 percent of them in the Libyan Arab
Jamahiriya. Algerians, who predominated the migrant workers to Europe featured less prominently in this new venture. The number of Moroccan migrants to the oil-rich states was equally not significant. But a fairly significant number of Tunisians was working in the new destination. A con siderable amount of Sudanese migrants, mainly in Saudi Arabia, were enumerated in the capital-rich Arab nations. In general, the available evidence tends to suggest that the flow of migrant labour from North African countries to the oil-rich Arab States will continue at a much faster rate in the future although it may be premature to be definitive given the existing state of knowledge.
(ii) Causes of migration
35. The two major causes accounting for the emigration from the Maghreb to France are reported as unemployment and the pattern of income distribution.
Emigration from the Maghreb first started in those areas directly affected by colonization excepting in Tunisia. Working in France was considered to pay
better and to confer higher status than working in the coastal plain or towns.
To some extent, the colonial ascendency made itself felt by recoil.
Schooling, experience of paid work in France and the spread of the money economy all helped to sharpen the attractions of working abroad. Emigration offered the young a chance to break away from agriculture, with its increasingly- felt constraints and to stand aloof from the village community. In all three Maghreb countries, the dividing up of households rendered inevitably by the emigration aggravated by restrictions on family consolidation, generated severe social problems including marital conflicts and desertion of families
and accounted for the imm*4ist* motivation for migrating. Details of each
of these forces are well spelt out in the OECD study under eference.2/ Migration and Transfer of Technology: A Case Study of Algeria,
Morocco, Tunisia and France (O.E.C.D., 1975), CD/AG/1027.3/ Birks J.S. and Sinclain, C.A., International Migration and
Development in the Arab Region, ILO, Geneva (1980).fatle 2
1
Country
4? +1
Destlna Ion
Saudi Arabia Ltbyan Arab
Jamahlplya
Unlridat«b
Kuwait
Do hi* o T rl
[jill If d 4 11
Jordan (East lank}
Oman Yemen
Iraq
Total
95.0 229.5
12.5 37.6
1.2 5.3 4.6 2.0 7.0 397.5
280.
4.
l*
-,.
-
25».
4
5
■)
1
,1 jord Pales
175 14 14 ft
1
3 264
an
tine .0 .2
.5
!n
.6
.6 .2 .0 .7
lemo~
©ratle Yemen
55.0 -
4.5
*
1.1 .1
70.6
reqlon of •rldn, 1975
Country op Syrian
Arab Republic
15.0 13.0 4.5
.1 20.C .4 .2
7C6
Lebanoi
2C0 5.7 4.5
.1 7.5 1.1
3-0 49.6
region of i Sudan
35-0 7.0 1.5
.4 .5
.2 45.9
(thousands) origin Vighreb 0«an
17.5 41.0
14.0 3 7 1.9 1.4 .1
41.1 38^
2,0
-
.5 18.•
-.
-
-
2C.6 bom
5
1
s alia
.0
-
.1
•V
.3
-
.b
All
3B.0 5-5
163.5 33.6 34.0 16,6 58.7
1C.0 359.9
Euro]
and
15 7 5
4
pe
.0 .0
.§
.0 .8
•4 . I
2.S
37 .5
•7
Af>|oa
o er
1C.0 -5
-
.1
-
-
10.6
Turkey [r^
.5 1t.
9.0
21,
— 28' 4.
1.
41 .0
.0
•y .0 .9 .4
.0 9.5 HO .2
r»tp-l
773 332
251 208 53
7%
65 182
.9 .3
.5
• U .7 .3
•7
.7 D»5
no migrants fpom this ocuntry or area of »r!sln pepopted.
Scuroet Report en monltcplns of population trends (ES/^ / 1960, Table 6.1
- 18 -
36. A pertinent question to raise at this point is the push and pull factors accounting for the recent trend of migration from Northern African countries (excluding Libya) to the oil-rich Arab states. ILO study on international migration and development in the Arab region noted earlier
indicates that Egypt and the other capital poor states have been characterized by high rates of population growth, low domestic savings rates, low rates of growth of fixed domestic capital formation and high rates of unemployment and underemployment. They have also been characterized by high rates of d ones tic inflation, weak currencies and a general prevalence of labour emigration.
Further more, policies apparent during the Naser era has left Egypt and other sympathetic Arab nations with a very little size private sector, and the poor governments have shouldered employment and job-creation respon sibilities far beyond their capability. Hence these governments have resorted to emigration and some have begun to believe that international migration for employment is the only remedy for unemployment. It is noted
that the reduction in the migration from the Maghreb to the European countries by the mid 1970s was largely sequel to the economic recession in Europe simultaneous with the improved economic situation in most of the North African countries with concoramittant demand for labour supply as well as the increased demand for labour by the Middle East countries in the wake of the oil boom. From available statistics, it appears that because migration to the oil-rich Arab states is purely for employment, there exist a strong association between socio and economic indicators (eg. GNP per capita and literacy level) on the one hand and the population size on the other. The countries of primary emigration (Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, Sudan and Morocco) have a relatively low GNP per capita as estimated for 1975 (excepting Tunisia and Algeria) simultaneous with a relatively large population size excepting Tunisia (Table 3). On the other hand, the immigrant countries (Kuwait, UAE, Qatar, etc.) have a relatively smaller population size simultaneous with rather high per capita GNP.
The rank order correlation of -0.87 between the GNP per capita (1975) and the population size (1975) of the 13 countries (Table 3) collaborates with the view that it is principally the higher price for labour in the oil-rich Arab states with inadequate labour supply needed to operate the oil enterprise that acts as a pull for migrant labour from the surplus labour countries of North Africa.
37. Although the estimated rate of population growth is equally high in both the emigrant and immigrant countries (Table 3), it is apparent that probably thp resulting high rate of increase in the absolute size of the total population in the oil-rich Arab states does not equate the supply with the demand for labour to work the oil enterprises. On the other hand,
the high rate of population growth in the Northern African countries possibly aggravates the apparent surplus labour supply situation. It is equally conceivable that the level of literacy in the Arab states does not meet that type of labour demanded to work the oil enterprise while the
literacy level in the countries of Northern Africa may be such that, relative to their own local labour demands, there exist a surplus of qualified workers that cannot find sufficiently well-paying jobs in their home countries. Admittedly this inference is largely speculative as more data on say the school enrolment situation in both sets of countries is needed to make a more meaningful analysis. What is uncertain here is what
- 19 -
Table 3
Socio-Economic Indicators of Migration in North Africa and Selected Arab States
Country
GNP per capita in 1975 (U.S.$)
Pop. Size in 1975
(000s)
Natural rate of growth 1970/75
Literacy rate
in 1975
Countries of Immigration
Kuwait UAE Qatar
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya Saudi Arabia
Oman Bahrain Iraq
Countries of Emigration
15 13 11 6 4 2 2 1
840 990 400 310 480 630 140 390
2 4
11 472 200 63 088 593 55C 225 124
Tunisia
Algeria' Morocco' Sudan Egypt
840 780 470 290 280
5 16 13 14 38
570 940 400 114 228
4.5 3,1 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.1 2.1 3.2
2,7 3.2 2.9 3.0 2.3
55 14 33 3?
33 20 47
35
15
Source: Birks, J.S.9 and Sinclair, C.A.- International Migration and Development in the Arab Region, ILO (Geneva, 1930).
a Amy Ong Tsui and Bogue, D.J., "Declining Uorld Fertility: Trends,
Causes, Implications". Population Bulletin, Vol. 335 i'o, 4, 1973, pp. ;:?
The figures for GNP per capita and those on population size *T\ ,-;>t aK-rs.c* estimates for 1575 but are for the 1975/80 interval.
- 20 -
may happen in the eventual decelaration in the rate of population growth in the North African countries and the concommittant disappearance of their labour surplus. Equally uncertain is the possibility of deliberate pro- natal policy among the Arab states consistent with the goal of meeting needed domestic labour supplies.
(iii) Consequences of migration
38. There is no concensus on the net consequences of labour migration.
However, it is probable that most governments in net receiving countries view the long term disadvantages as outweighing short-term gains. In the case of the resource-rich countries of North Africa and the Middle East, the challenge of making use of large scale flows of migrant workers simultaneous with minimizing the attendant difficulties of such flows is formidable 4/.
39. Regarding the consequences of emigration from the Maghreb to Europe, a variety of cyclical, short-term and structureal long-term economic and social effects are noted although the scope of the study is such that the long term effects are not covered in detail. In the short run, the emigrants constituted- a liability to the overall economy of the Maghreb since there was a lack of unskilled agricultural labour at times of peak activity in some areas particularly affected by emigration. The same applied to the shortages of skilled technicians and workers in certain areas and certain sectors such as building. On the other hand, in
addition to reducing unemployment in the Maghreb, emigration also resulted in savings and transfer of money to the Maghreb. Available statistics indicate that in 1973 alone, total transfered income was 1.687 million French Francs for Algeria; 1.036 million French Francs for Morocco;
and, 0.446 million French Francs for Tunisia. The overall contribution made by emigrant workers to the balance of payment was even more important.
Official transfers represented 20.0 percent of overall external receipts in Algeria, 24.7 percent in Morocco and 11.6 percent in Tunisia. In terms of the well-being of the nationals and residents of the departure country, emigration undoubtedly effected an improvement. Income per head of
population was distinctly higher than it would have been but for emigration.
However, a substantial proportion of savings by the emigrants was not transfered but invested in France mainly in businesses, services and
property. In some respect, therefore, this represented a clear deficiency in the financial contribution of emigration to the economic development of the Maghreb.
40. Overall human resources from the Maghreb made a substantial con tribution to economic growth in France, by providing a rapid increase in the available labour force at a low social cost. Whole sectors were able to grow by absorbing unskilled manpower. Migrant workers made it possible to manage without a good deal of large-scale investment and of potentially awkward restructuring. They also enabled French nationals to take more highly-skilled and better-paid employment and in particular, to move into jobs in the more popular tertiary sector. In fact as many as two-thirds of the new industrial jobs created in the course of the French Sixth Plan
(1970-1975) were filled by foreign workers. From the French standpoint, this factor of production has been acquired on highly favourable terms.
