NATIONS
CONOMIC ND
SOCIAL COUNCIL
17 October
ORIGINAL: ENGLISH
ECOBOKEC COMMISSION FOR AFRICA
SEMINAR ON PORJL TION PROBLEMS IN AFRICA
29 October-10 November 1962 Cairo, United Arab Republic
FERTILITY, MORTALITY, INTiiBHATiaiAL iHGRATION AND POPULATION GROWTH IN AFRICA
<r:\ :-.,- " ■i^oo ,.cd ■•.■■-..^-: sj:..-1..
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62-3069
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This Seminar has been organized by the secretariat of the Economic Commission for Africa in co-operation with the United Nations 3ureau of Social Affairs, Statistical Office and Bureau of Technical Assistance Operations, and the Government of the United Arab
Republic as host.
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FERTILITY, MDRTALITT/, INT3K1MICNAL MI^TION ANp POPULATION GROWTH IN AFRICA Prepared by the Economic Commission for Africa with the co-operation
of the Population Branch of the Bureau of Social Affairs .
. CQNTiiMTS . .-.■.:
Paragraphs
I, FERTILITY IN AFRICA . . 1-16
A. Sources of data * -J
B. Measures of fertility . . ... 4-5
■ -C. Fertility levels in Africa , ...,♦ • • r J^u- D. Fertility trends and prospects in Africa . . . . 10-13 tJ S.1 PoUcy implications . . . ... . . .-• . . • • • 14-lo
•It. ■ MCRTA-UTJ IN AFRICA . .--^i •■ . • 17-31.
; A. Sources of mortality data and their limitations . , ... . 17-18,,
B^ Jfeasures of mortality . . . ,. . . • • • • • v * rr i?*"^■'■■
C. Mortality levels in Africa • • oA in
; D. M6rtality! trends and prospects in Africa . . . • • * 26-30,
■-.i ■ ' ■ ■ E» Policy considerations . ■. ■. • • • 31 . ; HI. ■ ilNTMATIQNAL MIGR^.HON. IN iiFRICA v ... 32-40 ,;;.■:.■ ; A.. Introduction ... ... • •. |-?"27 1. Definition of intematicnal migration ?c"o7 : 2. 'Scope and accuracy of data ..•••. ■• ... 35-37
B. Magnitude and characteristics of recorded immigration and
emigration in selected African oountries' 3«-40
IV, POPULATION GROWTH IN AFRICA
"'a. Sources and limitations of data relating to population
growth . . . • •..■*•■••*■•
.:. i/,B,:./Levels and trends of population growth rates • AJ-
C,. Future growth of African populations •
V, rSCME BffLICA'i'ibNS OF PORJUflON GROWTH IN AFRICA 49-56 A. .Population density ;...'... ♦'. ... • • ■ • • 4?7
!°B!"i Implications for education .. •■ . . •'■■•''■. ... ..* •' •'• 55.
if.!-- :
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I. FERTILITY IN \FRICA
A. Sources of> data . : ^, !
1. Few African countries have comprehensive, effectively functioning systems of birth and death registration covering their whole territory and population. Uhere regls- trationexists, it is often limited to certain areas, such as principal cities, or certain categories "of* the" population such as non-indigenous minorities. Vjhere- the scope of the registration' system "is" comprehensive, in. many cases the registers are seriously incomplete, fdth* the exception of Mauri tius^ Fv'eVnibn, 'and a few ether smail areas, 'and of non-indigenous minorities in a number of countries, the rates of completeness of birth registration do not generally exceed 80 per cent. , In fact, on the basis of the results of the few tests which have been conducted, rates of com pleteness below 60 -per -cent seem ito be rather the rule than the exception.
2. -African tjlrth registration-statistics also have other shortcomings. In only a few
cases (e.g., Reunion -and -the Unidn of South Africa) are birth statistics classified ty age ;bf mother available for the whole population. Such data are available in a few other countries for Europeans or other -segments of .the population. It is evident, therefore, that the study of jfertility in Africa is severely hampered by deficienciesin the birth registration data. ■.-■',
3. In a number of African'countries where registration data are deficient or non existent, data on -vital events'have been * obtained from other sources. Hou&eluald sur veys including, questions on yitai events have been obtained from other sources.
Household surveys including1'questions on vital events and covering samples of the
whole.population have recently'been conducted in Guinea (1955), Mali (I960), central
African I-epublic' (I960), Gabon (1961), Togo (1961), and others. In addition,' suchsurveys covering, only parts of the' country' or population have been carried out in a number of other countries. Although the reliability of data on births and deaths ob tained by this method is not equal to that of data from a well-functioning system of vital negistration, the information yielded by these surveys is far superior to that which was previously available for the countries concerned. One of the shortcomings of these data at present results from the fact that surveys have, in most,cases, been carried out only once, and the results therefore do not show the trends of fertility.
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B# Measures of fertility
4. Two measures of fertility will be used in this paper: the crude birth rate and the gross reproductioil rate. The crude birth rate, defined as the annual number of births per 1,000 of the population, is"the most widely used measure of fertility because of the simplicity of its calculation "and the fact that the data required are more generally available, than those required for more refined fertility measures. However, as the
crude birtth rate is affected by the sex-age structure of the population, this .factor may distort comparisons of fertility in terms of this rate between countries and over periods of time.
5. The gross reproduction rate is defined as the average number of daughters that would be born to a generation of women having, at each age in the potential child-bearing per iod of their lives, the age-specific female birth rates observed for a~given* popula tion at a given time, on the assumption thatj none of the women would die before reach ing the limit of their potentially fertile years. It may be calculated by gumming up recorded female birth rates for women in each age *:roup from the beginning to the end of the potential child-bearing period. This, rate has the advantage of being indepen dent of the sex-age composition of the population. The data required for the compu tation, however, are less widely available in nfrica than the data for computation of crude birth rates.
C. Fertility Levels in Africa
6. The fertility levels of selected African countries, as indicated by records-or ■
estimates of crude birth rates and gross reproduction rates, are given in Table I.I.
Except in the case of non-indigenous populations, the curde birth rates appear generally to' be in excess of UO per thousand inhabitants and correspondingly the
level of ^ro'ss reproduction rates is in most cases about 2.5 or more.-' while too much reliance should not be placed upon the accuracy of each individual estimate, the data seen to indicate that the fertility levels in most countries of Africa are of a higji order, and in some cases may be as high as or even higher than the levels found in Eastern and Southeastern Asia and in some Latin American countries.
1/ Two considerations affect the comparability of the individual estimates for the countries 'given in Table ll.lt First, the estimates provided have been derived from various sources, for example, census or survey data on number of children ever to women, "reverse-survival" of children enumerated at census, or surveys, direct . sample survey data oh births, birth data from civil registration, etc. Second, the
period of reference varies among countries, going back in sane casds to prewar years,
7 . ■ ■ ■ ' • ' ■ .' :■ - •. 7 ■ :7 /...
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Footnotes to Table I.I (Cont'd)
5/ Data are for five provinces of North Cameroun. See, Service de la Statistique
(uameroun), 3nqu§te Demographique par Sondage, Nort-Dameroun, (Re'sultats Pro-
visoires), December, I960.6/ Provisional results from 1960-61 survey relating to the whole country. Crude birth rate from I.N.S.E.E. (France), Donnles 5tatistiques, December, 1961, No. 4._ GRR
calculated from unpublished age-speciiic fertility rates provided by I.N.S.k.S.7/ Distribution of age-specific birth rates for Guinea was used in calculating the GRR.
8/ GRR estimated from data derived fran surveys carried out in different areas of the
country.
2/ Provisional results from a 1959-60 survey of the sedentary population. Gee, I.N.S.E.E., Donne'es Statistiques, cop.cit.
10/ Data refer only to part of the country. Crude birth rate given in I.N.S.E.E.,
La Movenne valise du Senegal, Paris, 1962. The GRIt was calculated fran age-specifxc
fertility rates given in the same publication.
11/ Crude birth rate from Service de la Statistique Gene"rale (Togo), Bulletin de Statis
tique; 1962.12/ From I.N.S.3.IC, (France), La Situation Demogra'phiaue en Haute Volta, O.lesultats
provisoires), Paris, 1962. .■'..-■ ■"
12/ Data .related to Central anr -.,est Ubangi, which together represent 90 per cent of
the population.
14/ Distribution of age-specific birth rates for angola derived from Census data on numbers of children ever bom to women was used in calculating the GRR.
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7. The crude birth rates' appear"i& Vary considerably between countries ;d.tfain the region. Some african countries' such a"S' Bechuanaland, Cameroon, Gabon and Congo (Llo- poldville) have crude birth rates in the low forties or below in contrast to Guinea, I'-Iall an"o* Niger where rates1 ranging from 55 to 60 per thousand have been estimated.
The variations may be due partly to errors of estimation or reporting. Another fac tor which may be partly responsible for exiraordinarily high or relatively, low .crude- birth rates income" "African countries is abnormalities of sex-age composition of the
:-.-■: ■ . ■ ..„ ■.. =-. ■ 2/ ■ ■ ■ •■ ■■■■■;■
population due to migratory ftov Orients.—' As mentioned earlier, this fertility indi
cator may De: Considerably affectfed by: sex and age structure of the population, B, : :Th'e range of differences in fertility levels between countries seems to become narrower when a comparison1 of crude birth rates is mkde at the level of geographic
sub-regions. These differences are relatively minor in fcrthem'and Southern Africa
where the Tail£es are 42 to 48 and 40 to 45 respectively.^ The estimated gross repro
duction' rates varyircm''"2.$ to 3.1 and''2,7 to 3.1, respectively, in- these sub-regtohs.
The differences in!:the1:Ie'Veis of 'fertility vdthin Skat/ ..;ost and Central Africa are
considerable. For example, in 'Vest 'Africa, the values shown for the crude birth" rate vary from 36 to 42 in Gabon and Cameroon respectively, to 59 and 62 in Niger arid Guinea. "Correspondingly, the values for the gross' reproduction rate lie between 2,3and 3.7.^' On the'whble^ the; data suggest that the level of fertility in vfest Africa
may be Higher than th^t of the other sub-regions, but this indication is subject to
seme Question in view of the uncertainty of the methods of measurement.•" In particular, the accuracy of dkta derivect'from sample surveys in many of these countries has not yet
been tested. . - .
2/ Some ■'examples of'-low.: ratios of.Tnales -to females, are giVen in
L.6; E/CMs9/eOHFi3/L.6, parav 9^ ; ■-< .2/ -The range is, of course> wider for the southern region of Africa if birth rates cf
minority ethnic groups are included.
4/ This estimate of a gross reproduction rate of 3«7,(for Nigeria is the mid-point of the
estimated range 3.6-3.S and the basis for its deduction (aciassification of the popu
lation in five age groups and a crude birth rate estimate) is by no means reliable.j>/ An attempt Was made to obtain weighted average > crude birth and gross reproduction ... rates for the geographical sub-regiens, .The results obtained for the various sub-
regions were the following (where either rate is given as a range, the mid-values
were used for this calculation) Crude birth rate Gross reproduction rate
-North Africa ;,; ' -. ;i45 2.7
East Africa (exc. Zanzibar and Pemba) .48 2.9
' West Africa ;! ■ ' : 53 3.2
Central Africa ■ 48 216
South Africa 43 2.9 /...
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9. Another.; significant, feature, of fertility in,Africa, is the difference in level be tween indigenous and ncn-indigenous- populations. Whereas the crude birth rates for . indigenous population generally ranee,We 11 afeove 40 per 1,000, those., of tl^e p<roula-: , tions of European and Asiatic origin have rates of the order of 25 to 3Q.per 1,000, which are nore comparable to the levels observed in uropean countries. , :.
E-. Fertility,Trends and Prospects, in Africa
10. Table 1,2 shows trends of recorded crude birth rates of selected populations in Africa for-wh^ch. series .pf:suqh rates are available extending ©ver a relatively long period of time. The rates for indigenous populations^except Rwanda and Burundi) are
based on birth registration data that are kno-wn to be incomplete, bub they are used here, in theubelief that they might indicate the trend in fertility even though the
level,fnay.be. .misrepresented.^' Trend analysis of the fertility of African populations
in.the present state of demographic, data, must be considered still less reliable than the.analysis of current levels presented in Section C and cannot portray the patterns of changes,- if any, at the sub-regional level,. The data presented here can only, give general indications for individual countries with due reservations as to the reli ability of the data. . .
11. In Algeria and the UaR, which have a. long record of registered vital statistics, the crude birth rates.have remained consistently in the low forties. In a few unex
plained deviations are excluded, the crude birth rates of Algeria (Moslems) and UkR
, have varied around 40 and 42 per thousand, respectively. In the case of Tunisia, the^apparent rise; from rates of about, 32-35 to the range of 41-44 since 1957 may be due mainly to improving completeness of registration. The pattern of fluecuation within a, relatively .clo^e range noted in the cases of ilgeria. and thetfUi£- also appears, in the data for Madagascar, ^friere the recorded crude birth-rate ;since 1950 has ranged between-3i and 33 per thousand, and Rwanda and Burundi where the range has been be tween 45 and 50 in the last decade. The countries for'which long series of birth
statistics are availatiLe are so few and unrepresentative that no very definite conclu-
• siGrTcan be drawn on the trend of fertility of indigenous populations in Africa. One can-only note that the data available at-the present time do not clearly indicate any upward, or downward movement in the fertility performance of t.ese groups, st the risk of ;beingrepetitiye, it might be added that a comprehensive analysis of fertility trends in Africa xan be achieved only itfien efficient vital registration systems can be estab- 6/ The trend analysis can have truei,validity'bnly if registration'efficiency has re
mained constant over the period of reference. /•••
1-2, TRENDINRECORDEDCF-UP3.BIRTHRATESOFSELECTEDAFRICANCOUnTKT|S_ *~CrudJbirthrateperthousandintheyea?or_period
.--C.?arit?r and pGpulat:Lon group _^JQr44._.:Pi945-49 1950-54 - 1955: 1957 1959 I960
Algeriaia/'' Moslempopulation^42.241.441-443-8:29-939.3:... Europeanpopulation.;■21.521.9■*9.717.6-"22.121.921.0Madagascar, indigenous-' . :. ... 24.0 31-9^ 35.5 34.8 32.9 32.8
Mauritius,AsiaticandMixed34-042.0;46.5'41.843.1"38.539-6 Mos^mhique,>5uropeanr'..28.831-733.2.34-9'31.8...Reunion^ ' ... 42.4 49=4 49.2 47.3 44.2 ' 43.6 '
RhodesiaandNyasaland,Fed.of,.European-...28.428.727.627.928.0■27.3 RwandaandBurundi,Indigenous.,...40.944.6-'46.349.5™•;•'... SouthAfrica' Europeanpopulation25-626.425.1*24.9*25-1*.25.2*.25.5* Asianpopulation.39.338.535-3*34.1*-3O.7*"v32.O*"35.4* Colouredpopulation,r,43.745.947-3*45.8*47-0*46.3*48.$* South'WestAfrica,European25.520.930.831.931-733.531.4Tunisia-2^ ,. ... . 33-9^ 30.8 33-5 39-4 44-7 43.7 United Arab Republic \ 39.6 42.4 43.8 40.2 37.8
Source:UnitediMations,DemographicYearbook,1959-61.""■"' *Provisional.■*■■".■■"-: a/Uataexcludesinfantsdyingbeforeregistration:ofbirths. .b/Officiallyclassifiedas"civilized"saidtocomprisepopulationwhichhasfulfilledcertain conditionsbylaw,i.e.,achievedaprescribeddegreeof•material,andsocialdevelopmentas measuredbyeducationallevel,languageusedand.odeofliving. c/deludingAlgerianrefugeestemporarilyinthecountry.Riseincrudebirthrateafter1955 "-.-:.asindicatedasduetoimprovementinregistration.'.'■.p?§J^ §/--Averageratefortheperiod1946-49only.■-t? e/.Basedonratesfor1950and1953only..*o ,■"■■■"■...;-■■o f/Estimatedrateobtainedfromtheresultsofadeographicsamplesurveyheldin1954andas.,.i§ ;jsuch.refersto1954only..:.- ^g/Estimatedfromtheresultsoftheannualdemographicsamplesurveyheldin1957».'English i e~,... ,.,-, Page 12
lished nr periodic and accurate sample surveys for birth and death information can be
carried out in the countries of tKe region.. . ; ; , , ; / ; ■■■ j ,
12. The conclusions that can be arrived at regarding the fertility trends of non- ,
indigenous populations are less tentative, as the data for these groups.. a.re more reli able.^ In the case of populations principally of European origin, the level of .fer
tility is low and seems to have ranained consistently low during the last two decades.
Examples are in the European populations' of Algeria and the Union of South Africa, where the crude birth rates have centred around 20 and 25, respectively, in the period 1&0-60;. The pattern in the case .of .populations of Asian .origin and mixed population groups:is one of consistent decline. The data for liauritius and Reunion, which have fakrly;.complete registrations andj the Asian,population of South Africa indicate a fall
in; the^crude birth rate of the orjder of "15-to 20 per cent in the; past -two decades, ^/ven here a^generalization df ithe pattern is not feasible because the fertility of the mixed population in South Africa has remained at a consistently hi£i level during the same
period.; . ;:- .' - .'■. ■'■*■■' '. ' ' " " ". -.. * '.'"..13. No conclusive forecast of future fertility trends of African populations can be mSde on the basjfs. of existing datja except perhaps to say that the evidence indicates relatively little'expectation ofjchange in-present levels, of fertility-^n th-e:shcrt run.
B. Policy iyiplicationa ;:• ; | :'> ,,;-;'; ;■■
14. The "high leyils of ferUl^ of African populations affect economic and| social.de velopment ■problems principally j ±i two ways. First, as high fertility entails a large . proporiioS of: chi;Idr!en. in the po|)ulation (unless its effect is counter-balanced by that of large-scale, continuing immigration of adults), it calls for larger investments in
d©vead£>meht of the Educational: system than would otherwise be required to achieve a
ffiveniat^ of progress in educational advancement. This consideration is especially important^ of cburse^fbr thosf African countries where the birth rate is in .the very
high" range of 50 ;|in4.; above.
i§. ^econd,:runleis hi^i fertility is offset by high mortality (an,off-setting factor
which is becbmi|ig lesi: and less potent .as health conditions /improve througiout Africa) or or by femigratiofi^of; 4ourse it means rapid: growth of population^ The economic impli
cations of ich"rapid growth vary with;th^ cir-cumstances in different countries of Africa. With some Important exceptions;, the African countries-have relatively low
17/ QlaaiMicatirQns giyean ifeere/'are spmewhat arbitrary.,- I^i'e populations of Mauritius
and Reunion, are classified ats ftonidnctlgerious in that;'tfrere; is a^large percentage of persons of non-African ;:origin and descendents of inte>-marriages within the
populati on. ' ../...
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population density and a low level of utilization of natural resources. For many of them, the present small size of the population and sparse distribution of settlements are handicaps to economic development, especially in the industrial sector. In such
■circumstances,-a substantial increase of population "would evidently be advantageous . for economic development at least in the long run. On the other hand, population
growth at an excessively rapid rate tends to throttle economic progress even in a 9?-untiry_wh.ich needs more population in order to realize its full potential of economic development in the long run. It does so primarily because a large shar"e of available- Capital in a country where pojxilation is growing rapidly has to be invested in expand ing productive facilities to meet the needs of the rapidly increasing number of con- - sumerSj and thus, a relatively small share of capital remains for "progressive" invest
ments whiqh .would help to raise the level of productivity and output per head,
16, Iw^view-of these considerations, which may be mutually offsetting to sane extent,
one may.say that; there is a certain rate of population growth, and level of fertility, which would represent an optimum in relation to economic and social development,
depending on the demographic and economic circumstances of each country, development would be retarded if the rate fell far short or rose far above this optimum. To de termine; the approximate level .of this optimum rate for any country requires studies of a ..kind that have hardly yet been attempted in most African countries. It should be.observed, however, that where the birth rate is in the range of 40 to 50 per 1,000, if progress--in health' brings the death rate down to the neighbourhood of 10 per 1,000
(as it has already, done in a few parts of Africa), the result will be population
growth at a rate .of 3 to 4 per: cent per annum - a rate which is likely to be well above the economic optimum level for a developing country in almost any circumstances,
-here the.taiiTth rate is in the range of 50 to 60, there is a potential for population growth, With progress in health and reduction of mortality, rising to the range of 4
to 5 per cent per annum• '
Page 14
II- MORTALITY IN AFRICA ""
A* .Sources of mortality data and their limitations
17 Information on conditions of mortality in Africa is still less satisfactory than information on fertility. The limitations of African birtn registration statistics
noted above apply equally to death registration statistics; data frcm this source, of usable .quality, are very narrowly limited in Africa at present. The information on mortality obtainable from other sources is less extensive and more dubious than in the case .of fertility Household sample survey enquiries, which have been carried out recently ir. many parts* of Africa, are considered, in general, to provide less relia\ ! e data on deaths than on births, althou* the information on mortality obtained through t ese surveys is far superior to the vaijae and dubious indications that were avail able previously for the countries concerned, .'ioreover, the possibilities of estimating mortality measures from census data on population structure are far more narrowly
limited than the possibilities of fertility estimates on this basis. /ven where the census data are relatively accurate, reliable inferences as to mortality rates can only be made if the results of two or more censuses are available and classified in the .necessary de'.tdl., and if the effects of migration during the intervals between rcen-.u^v& are negligibl.3 or known in adequate detail. These conditions are satisfied
in very,few African countries,
18, It is therefore not. possible to present as full a picture of mortality in Africa as could be presented for fertility. The data which are available relating to levels arid trends of mortality in various countries of the region are summarized below. In interpreting the figures, it is necessary to bear in mind that the data obtained
. from differentsources are not of equal reliability and not .always exactly co :parable.
-"'- Measures of jBojrta.U.jg_
lyt" Three measures of mortality will be used in this paper, viz., the crude death rate, the infant morality rate-, and the expectation of life at birth.
20. The crv.o.e death rate, delined as the annual number of deaths per 1,000 of the population, is the most widely available measure of mortality. In addition to rela tively wide availability, it has the advantage of representing the mortality experi ence of the whole population and not merely a segnent; and together with the crude birth rate, it affords a measure of the rate of natural increase of the population.
However, like the crude birth rate, it has the disadvantage of being influenced by the
age structure of the population. /»..
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Page 15 •;.>■•■■
21. The infant mortality rate, defined as the number of deaths of children under one year of age per 1,000 live births, is a valuable supplement to the crude deatih rate.
It measures a component of mortality which is of great importance jin/det!erininiji£ the general mortality level, andvthis component is particularly sensitive tcf conditions of
health and levels of lining. Infant mortality rates are almost as widely available ascrude deatfc rates. -However,.infant mortality rates ar> subject to..larger! errors,; as omissions in registration or survey reporting are likely to be proportionately roWe frequent in t#e cajse of infant deaths than in the case of deaths of aduljtis. The; infant mortality ra&^is also affeited by irrors^in r^gi^tritiort or Reporting <j| birth*. ; On
the balance, the infant mortality rat^s $n record f8r tarfous African cqttntriesjars
likely to be understated, in most cases,; in varying degrees.. , \r i ; : 22. The:expectationVof life at birth fiej represents; the ^umber^of years expe^te^ to
be lived by an average member of a cohort of births under existing conditions of mcr-
tality of males and fanales at various ages. This measure is determined uniquejLy jbyi the sex-age-specific mortality rates and is .not affected; as'the cj-ude deat^ rate is, jbythe age structure of the population. Unlike the infant mortality rate, it reflects tie mor tality experience of-the whole-population;; In-Africa, howeveri, data onj expectation of life, especially for the indigenous "populations, are less widely availajile than crude
8/ i ■ I ■ . ' '-.
death rates and infant mortality rates.-' \ !•■ : ; ■ -;
C, y\oriaM^^yeL^n^vxo&:t . ;| .1'=* .I'"-; ; .!■■'■■ . . ; K" i S -;
23. Some of the nicest and lowest mortality levels'may be found in thp African Region as can be seen from the records or estimates of crude death rate, infant mortality rate and expectstipn of; life of selected nfrican populations presented in Ta|ble jtl.l. j In 8/ In African countries;-Waere sex-age'-specific- mortality rates are availal^Le, thpy
ccononly exhibit deviations from normal patterns of variations of mortality ih re
lation to a£e and sex. These deviations are likely, on the whole, ito be caused more by errors in the data than by real peculiarities of the mortality patternsin the countries concerned. In order to reduce the gffeet of such errors an jthe
measures of expectation of life at birth, values of UQ have been estimated in somecasss by the following method: . (l) For each age-sex-specific mortality rate ;as re
ported, the corresponding level.;of mortality has been identified in the series of
United Nations .TpdetUife tables (See Methods of--Population Projections by oex an4Ape, Uhited Nations Publicafiort, 3ales No. 1956.,XIII.3O . W. '.'Jhejmortality levels
so obtained have been averaged for each country/(3) the value of expectation of
life at birth correspcnding^tO;the resulting average mortality lev^l in the United Nations models.has been.taken as the estimate. ,■ ; ,9 v
o
/i..
-'■!'
CRUDE DEATH-RATE^ INFANT
TABI&II.l.,.-:':- RATES*:ANDEXPECTATIONOf]Life *countries;::\'°--^ ATBIRTHFORSELECTEDAFRICAN -Crudedeathrate.*: ;>andinfant,mortali-GrudeInfant :■"tyrate'death.mortal,* Xearof.-,/rate;ity? reference■■Source-'ratec
Expectationoflife 1■■'.,....Expec--United ■■■}ta-tionNatiotisK 27in.mortality
Year Spurge-/- years --level .. >
Algeria:-,"■ Moslempopulation.;'■''. European,'popu3|;1958 Angola CapeVerdeXsla4d3';. CentralAfricatir^epublic1959 Congo(Leo|)oldville);:..,..';... GhanaV"■■■■""■!-,':.■£-"'"'•••..Guinea '-■' .. ■ -V: .'. ;: :'■; ., :1954-55
IvoryCo'a^tlinclig^npuis'■-'..__■"■" ruralpopulation;~:■;:-,;1^57-58Mali ; -:" - .'..:'" 1;. :l:1960-61
Mauritius,."ex.'dep..--1959 I-Iorocco(non-indigenous population)••• Mozambique:;...• RhodesiaandNyasaland,Fed.of: N»rthernRhodesia Europeanpopulation1956 Indigenouspopulation SouthernRhodesia(Indigenous population,.••• RwandaandBurundi.:.19.51. Senegal'.'."■■;;19^-58R R
8.945 15.7y- 26.0 iO.O-220 28.0.- 28.0.250 16.6.124 6.124 15.0
26.6
1948 1954 1940 ;1959• 195P-52 167
1957-58%
1957^ *« 1951-53 *«
1950-52::1940 °a
1951 1950. 1948V •••■ 1957-5835 35 35 50; 58 63 50 '3^
3°
33* 38-40;3<V ;
28»25 35-40 35: 15■ 30 60
75^
50 35 60 353
TableH.I.(Conb'd) Country
Crudedeathrate andinfantm*rtali- tyrate Yearof referenceSourc CrudeInfant deathmortal- rateity rate
Expectationoflifeatbirth Expec-United tationNations 2/inm»rtality YearSource-*yearslevel SouthAfrica Whitepopulation Asiaticpopulation Colouredpopulation Sudan UnitedArabRepublic (Egyptianregion) ZanzibarandPemba Zanzibar Pemba
I960 I960 I960 1955-56 1956 1958 1958
R R R R
8.8 16.3 19*0 21. 21 23
30 64 127 94
1951e16/-66 1950-52e' 1950-52 o 157
1947 1958 1958
55 45 43 43 40
90 70 50 4 45 40522/ *Crudedeathratesandinfantmortalityratesarepresentedonlywherefairlyreliableregistra tiondata>rsurveydataareavailable. 1/RreferstodeathregistrationdataandStoratesobtainedfromhouseholdsamplesurveys. 2/kreferstoexpectationoflifecorrespondingtoaverageofUnitedNationsmortalitylevels '^correspondingtOjlXXXJ.m^valuesobtainedfrom:mortalitydata;pe#referstoexpectationof lifeatbirthobtainedTromofficiallifetablesorsurveysasindicated. 2/.._-EstimatedrateforCenterTJbangibasedonresults.of1959samplesurveyof167clustersof villagesandoneurbancentre. LjJEstimatedratesbaseSohresultsof1954-55samplesurveyofmortalityamongresidents. EstimatedontheBasisofresultsofthe1957-58demographicsamplesurveyof69villages. jSstimatedonthebasisofincompleteprovisionalresultsof1966-61demographicsamplesur-5/ 6/ 8/ 2/ 12/
fromtheresults^oftheannualdemographicsurvey. ForBasse-Valise-only(estimatedpopulation-250,0(^0).Ratesbasedon1957-58samplesur- Veyof77ruralvillages. Estimatesbas^donresultsof1955-56samplecensusofpopulation. J-stimatedratesforAfro-Arabpopulation;basedon1958populationcensusresults* .?e.9P_r^;e?rateadjustedtoaccountforreportedunder-registrationof23percent. RecordedrateadjustedtoaccountfoVreportedunder-registratioriof30percent.
8 >
aen *3IWtnotestoTableTill(Cont'd) lj/Refersto"Non-civilized"population,i.e.,Africanpopulationconsideredasnothaving ~:.fulfilled£ertaificonditionsestablishedbylawand-deemedaslivingaccordingtotrib alcustoms.,.,;j.j-;?;•:..,■■■-.■.•..^;■:;r.":":.i.* 14/-Basedon:results;ofasamplesurveyofmortalityamong3.6percentoftheindigenous .:population/rexcept',rates,forages70andover^which'areestimated.J""' ~15/Forthevalleyof-theNigeronly. 16/Fromofficiallifetables. 17/Basedonresultsof1950samplesurveyoftheAfricanpopulation. 18/Basedon1948samplesurveyofAfricanpopulation. 19/Averageforfive-yearmaleagegroups1to30. ■20/Averageforfive-yearmaleagegroups15to70,^:_,.■.*■_.■_.■ 21/Formalesaged5to45yearsofage. 22/Averageforfive-year,maleagegroupsunder65yearsofage.~:;
E/CN.U/A5PP/L.2 E/CN.9/C0NF.-3/L.2
English Page 19
general the crude death rates among indigenous African populations "are" high,""frying
from 20. to 40 per thousand and equally hi#i infant mortality, rates, ranging from 150
to. 250 can be found in the region, ixpectation of life at birth, seems in most cases to be in the range 20 to 40 years, so :far as the available data indicate. Thou^i theindividual values of crude death rates, infant mortality rates and expectation of life
are subject to considerable uncertainty in many cases, it seems, clear that the levels of mortality in Africa generally at. present are somewhat higher than those indicated by available data..for the regions o.f Asia and the Far Sast and Latin America. _ 24. Distinct, differences, of mortality are indicated when comparisons are made betweenthe various ethnic groups found on the continent. The indigenous African populations
have the highest mortality, far lower levels are found among the populations ofEuropean origin, while the "mijced" groups and those of Asiatic origin have intermediate
mortality levels. .A summary of the range of mortality measures recorded among the different population groups is given in Table II..2. :: . . ...■■.TABLE II.2 . ,
^RANGES OF EEfcOEDED 'X ^TlM'ED MORTALITY LEVELS FOR EEffFETENT POPULATION (SOUPS-
. ■•■• ■ . . . :- -:; ;...:■■■■■■ . - IN AFRICA ,. .. ■ ■ : ■•-■-■ ■ -■ -■■
p Range "of crude . Range of infant Range of expecta-
^roup death" rates ' mortality rates tion of life ( oe)
European or white ' . 5-10 ./ 30-50 60-70.
Mixed, or, Asiatics ' 8-17 5OT125 45-55
African .',.. 20-40^ . ; ; 100-250 . 24-45
1/ Mixed refers here to both the-descendants of inter-marriages of Africans and non- Africons and to populations where these two groups are almost evenly represented.
Asiatic refers to populations of Asiatic origin, ^camples of mixed and Asiatic- - . . populations are to be found in the "Coloured" and "Asiatic" populations of oouth
Africa, and the populations of Mauritius,. Reunion, Ceuta, ivielilla, etc,
2/ By eliminating the values for Guinea, this rarige may be narrowed to between 20
and 30 per thousand. '. .'- ■ ■ . ■ ■ ~ ' ■ ■ ■ ■
25. In view of the scantiness of the data, it is "extremely difficult to draw any defi
nite conclusions as to the geographic variations in mortality levels among these three
population groups in Africa. Table II.1, however, seems to give an indication that the
indigenous populations north of the Sahara enjoy, in general, lower mortality levels
than those south of the Sahara. No conclusion on differences between West Africa and
East or Southern Africa can be drawn on the basis of these data.E/CM.14/ASPP/L.2/CM.14/
Page 20 ■
tj> Mortality trends and prcspects in Africa
26* ReliableSeries of mortality data, extending over a considerable period of- time' Eve "limited almost entirely to the "European or white" and the '"Mixed and Asiatic" groups, for the indigenous African populations, such data are generally either unavailable or of very doubtful' accuracy. Some tentative indications -of the general direction" (though not the intensity) of mortality trends among this majority group, however, may be ob tained from available incomplete death registration data. Since it is often true that death registration systems tend to become more efficient over time (or remain at ap
proximately the same standard), a continuous fall in death rates derived from such :
records is usually indicative of an actual decline in mortality. No definite conclu sions can be drawn, however, from slow and continuous rises in these rates. ;; '
27. From Table II.3, it may be seen that, in almost every case, available crude'death rates for indigenous groups, although based on incomplete data, have been falling dur- ing the last two decades/^ except in cases where a strong effort for more complete regis
9/
tration was made in the interim.—' It may tentatively be concluded that the mortality level of the indigenous African populations; for which data are available has generally been declining, during this period. This conclusion is reinforced by a consideration of the available,, and also incomplete, infant mortality- statistics of indigsnous Afri can populations. In the. -few countries for-whi-ch...data..are-Available^._.trends in infant
mortality'rates are also clearly downward,—' at least since 1950, except again in instances where an explicit effort at greater completeness was made.*-'TO The limited scope of these statistics, however, makes definite conclusions as to the general trend in mortality among African indigenous populations unwarranted,
2/. 'One exception is Angola, where death-registration was initially very incomplete.
The steady rise in the recorded: crude death-, rate betweien 1940 and 1959 may very well be due to improved registration.
10/ For example, see data for Bantu population of South Africa after 1953.
11/ Except perhaps for the Moslem population of Algeria.
12/ For example, in Northern Zone of Morocco.
-tu
English Page 21
-■ ■ TAB£E";II".'3' ■■■ " ■
TRENDS OF REGISTERED CRUDE DEATH RaTSS AND INF i<T MORTALITY RAr<B FOR
-,,-..-,,. ... •■ . ■. -. ;■..,•■ . IATIOI:S Ev AFRICAN COUNTERS ■ ■c.t; :.'
Cduhtry^
Algeria:
Year ■
Moslem popula tion (U) 1958
Angola (U)
Congo (Le*&pold- ville) Indi
genous popu
lation (.*..)
Madagascar (U)Morocco
Northern Zone
(U) d/
Mozambique (U)—'
Ruanda-Urundi
1955
1952 .1948 1944 1940
19591955 1952- 1948 1944
i at r\
iy4*J
1959 . 1951 I960 1956 1950 1946
19551952 1948 /1946
1955 1950 19451940
Indigenous-pop
ulation (U)
Source: United 19571949 1948 Natioi
nnal
Crude
• -death : rate
15.0 12.313.0 20.G.
24.0 b/
17.5 y
6.8 "''■
6.2
•■ 6.9 5.7 5.4.
3*4'
1 ■ ■;:
-. ... : ;
12.2
12.717.6 21.4
12.0 e/
10.16.4 7.4 4.5 6.15.3 6.77.2
15.4 g/'
19.8 g/16.5 h/
; Infant mortality-
rate
80.8 85*1 .90,3 f.
97.383.4.
—
—
■144.3 : 148.0 y
67.8 71.5 111-. 5 140.9 c/
71.137.9 45.756.5
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
Country**
"South Africa
Bantu pecu
lation (U)
..:
Tunisia (U-)^ !
United Arab Republic(U).
Zanzibar and
Pemba (U)
as. Demographic Yearbook, 1957-61.
Year
1956 1952 19491945 1958 1956 1952 19491946
1956 ,1954 1949194V 1940
I960 1955,
1950
1945 ' 1940Crude
; death rate
11.0*i^
7.0*
.5.6 :5^9
Li6.4
:14.6
16.3^
17.8 20.6 '26.0 26.3
. 5.6 10.8 15.415.0 14.8
1' Infant '- mbrt&Lity :
• rai<
.. ....:- —
■<<:■•' .-■'-
,024,
■■■;■:-■{"■- "■
..3-,,., -
137^9 : ,■
135:
152,161,
-
83.74.
83, .5 w
& y ■
-'} ■■■.-.
.7.4 .0 y .1 y
/...
E/CN.14/ASPP/L.2 E/GN.9/C0NF,3/L.2
English ■■"■'•■
Page 22
Footnote.erfor. Table II.3
a/ Code indicating reliability of data presented are_ shown against each country except
wnere individuaT gates' differ. "Data said" to"^, relatively complete 'are "coded (C)'j those ;sai& --to be: unreliable (imSaaglefce) are coded ;(U); and (.. *■)■ indicates -unknown,reliability. .,,..-L , ■■■. ■_-■■,
b/ Rates not computed by the Statistical .Office of the United Nations. : ■■■*. -:■...:..-.
c/ Figure is for the year 191*8, : . . . . , ' ':".'"
d/ For northern part,of former Spanish Protectorate .only; excludes deaths of infants
dying within 2k hours of ibirth. i, ... . ■ ,.f
e/ Civil registration1 system for Moslem population introduced! July 1954; therefore
marked increase-^ter thatf date. ,. : .; .:j. ' ■■ ' ;f/ Registration be^leVed to be complete for "civilized" population ..onl^r, whic,h rep.re-,
sents a small proportion of the total. ' .';'' ' ; '
_g/ Estimated rate, ba.s,.ed on results of annual demographic sample survey(s).
h/ Rate said to be of unknown reliability.
i/ Marked",itiprease ob'sirvedfejeginning 15*53 due to the extension of compulsory registra
tion tb. Bantu population.in rural areas on 1 January 1952, . , ■
j/ Excludingi Algerian, refugees temporarily in the country, estimated at about; 150,000
inl959. = ■ - :
k/ Death registration among Tunisian M6slem population estimated to be only about "
50 per cent complete. ■' '...'•■■
1/ Estimated rate, basis unknown; corresponding rate" is 9,7
m/ Registration estimated to be 70 per cent complete..; '. ( '
E/CN.WASPP/L.2 E/aM.9/C0NF.3/L.2
English Page 23
2&. For the European or white populations of Africa^ it is- evident-, frcm reliable r-\ ■-re recorded1 death statistics that tlfe trend of mortality ^s been consistently downward- ■♦., during the last two decades. For example, the crude death- rate for the.European population-of Algeria fell frcm 13 ^thousand copulation in. 194G to 11 in 1948, and less than' 9 in 1958. For the European population of the. Federation'of Ithpdesia and • Nyasaland the crude death rate fell fron 6.8 per thousand.in 1949 to 5.k per thousand : in I960. Similar declines have been observed among the mixed and Asiatic population.
29. It is quite likely, in view of the high prevailing death rates among the African indigenous populations, that they will fall in the coming years. ffhe rate of decline will to a large measure be dependent on government policies in relation to health and on the improvements achieved in levels of living. Factors such as urbanization, im provement in education, etc. can make important contributions to the decline.
30. The high mortality level of indigsnous African population stems mainly frcm the low standard of medical and health care available to the population. One sign of the deficiency in this respect is the feet that infectious and parasitic diseases, tuber culosis, malaria, typhoid, dysentery, and syphilis in particular, contribute a large share of the total deaths among most indigenous African populations. Indices such as numbers of inhabitants per physician, per hospital, etc., where available, indicate that the need for more medical care is probably more acute in Africa than in any other major
region of the world.^ The efforts that are being made in African countries to improve
medical and other social services, however, indicate a likelihood of important declines
in mortality in the near future.
E. Policy Considerations
31. The mortality decline to be expected in African countries will have a number of economic and social implications. Along with the decline of mortality will go an im provement in the state of health of the population, and hence, perhaps, a rise in pro ductivity. It is estimated, for example, that the output of an Egyptian peasant suffer ing from "hookworm" is a third less than the average and that elimination of this dis
ease would result in an increase of agricultural output by 14 per cent.^ On the other
hand, a fall in mortality tends to increase the rate of population growth, under the 13/ United Nations, lieport on the world Social Situation 1957 (E/CN.15/324/Rev.l;
ST/SQA/33) pp. 43-48. These indices show considerable heterogeneity among coun
tries in the region,
See.'fl.T. Hifnawi Pasha, Article in t.h<» Journal of the Egyptian Institute. Bulletin
No. 3, London 1946, pp. 11. /...
English ■" • ■■■
Page 24
conditions of relatively, constant fertility prevailing in most African countries. . Some of the. possible.economic implications of, accelerating population growth have already been mentioned* :It should: fee str^ssecl! that a comprehensive development policy must take intO; consideration the. increasjing need for goods and services resulting from mor tality decline. It is important.that policy in. regard to health programmes, should be part and parcel ,of a comprehensive policy ,of: social and economic development, .
\E/CN.04/ASRP/L.2 E/0W;9/COI:F.3/L.2
English;:.:
Page 25 :. '
^ .'..,,- :■.-.. •.. ■■ ■ .■ III,; INTJISKiTIONAL MIGIMTOH IN AFRICA
A, Introduction ■■ . . :
32, The importance of international migration for economic and social development'of countries needs no emphasis. The increase or decrease of population brought1 about by migration has an impact on the economy and is to some extent, a reflexion of the economic imbalance that exists within each country. For example,-an outflow of needed technical ': personnel can have grave effect on a country's economic development. Conversely, an
inflow of human resources into a country with scarcity of -manpower,, (skilled or unskilled)
can contribute to its development. It is important to get measures: of international migration to and from African countries and to see what are the effects of such; movement
. en:their economic and social development. . ,.
!• Definition of international migration
33. :Various international conferences have studied the problem of defining and measur ing the-types of movement to be considered as international migration. Two criteria have been established for distinguishing international migrants from other travelers: ,.(l) .whether, or not the object of the journey is to exercise an occupation and (2) whether or not it involves an extended stay inthe country of destination. The International Conference of Migration Statisticians emphasized the latter criterion and stated in its report that "In principle, every act of removal from one country to another for a certain length of time should be included in the statistics of migration, with the exception of
■ tourist traffic... fthen the removal is for one year or more the migration should be re-
; garded as permanent migration /and/" when, the removal is for less than a year the migra- ... ■ tion- should be regarded ,as temporary".—^ , -:.-: . ■■ .■ -
. >.4f, The. Population and Statistical Commissions of the United Nations have adopted a M&et-.of classifications for presentation of international migration statistics which would
• promote ibetter comparability and utilization of such data. These bodies have suggested that total-arrivals should be given the following groups: (a) Pemanent immigrants
^intending to remain a year or more;, (b) temporary immigrants intending to exercise an
occupation for a year or less; (c) visitors, consisting of those'not intenin-g to exercise
an occupation and' dependants of"■temporary migrants and (d) residents returning fromabroad after a stay of notmbre than one year.—' Similarly, total 'departures were to be
15/ International Labour Office, Statistics of Migration: Definitions, Methods*- Classi fications;,::. Studies and Reports! Ser. N. (Statistics), No. 18, Geneva, 1932.
16/ United Nations, International Migration Statistics, Statistical Papers^ Ser. M.,
" ■ No. 20, New York, 1953, p. 17. /
'■ S/GN-9/C0NF.3/L.2
English:{"■•■■PageV26 ""■ '
separately indicated in terms of (a) permanent emigrants, (b) temporary emigrants,
(c) departing visitors and (d) residents intending to remain abroad for less than a
year. This method of classification of migration statistics is now being foil owed in 'seme African countries/ ■ " ': ' ■ '"■'2. Scope and accuracy of data
35* The usefulness of migration statistics for analysis would be considerably increased if the data for'each of the above categories of in- and cut-migrants could be further classified by sex, age, marital status, number of dependents, nationality, dountry of birth, citizenship, occupation, education, etc., so that the implications'of such rnove-
■■■■■■ 17/
ments could be more fully evaluated,—" In a few African countries, information is re corded on age, country of birth and occupation but these items are not always tabulated to the extent necessary for migration analysis, ■ ■■-■-
36. There'is considerable incompleteness in African migration statistics. Since a
large part of'the movement between African countries is across land frontiers and the points of crossing are often very numerous, difficulties arise in obtaining the type of records feasible in the case of air or sea travellers, Movements overland are excluded from the statistics of some African countries, while for some others the data refer only to non-Africans. These considerations severely limit the utility of such migration sta tistics as are'now available,37, -For some African countries, indications of the numerical importance of immigration
are provided b Employment statistics, based on establishment reports, showing numbers of alien workers employed, and by data on foreigners resident intne country! obtained through censuses or demographic sample surveys. 'In general, these data imply that im- nigration has been much greater thanrthe migration statistics indicate, uhile data of these types are highly valuable for the study of demographic, economic and social effects of immigration, ttey are riot adequate substitutes for comprehensive statistics relatingtd the current inflow of migration, and"1 of course they yield no information "on emigration.
3-- Magnitude and characteristics of recorded immigration and emigration In selected
African countries ■ . ■• ■ . : ■ ■ ■ ■ -. -.■■■'.- -l.'-> .38; In the latest issue of the United Nations Demographic Yearbook containing migration
statistics (1959), annual, data on recorded immigration are presented for 11 African-
'if' S.4g'») P. 16" and" United Nations,'Problems of Migration Statisticsr';ST/8QA/SSR.A
. Population Studies No, 5. pp. ljji-24^ : - . ■ ■ ■ • ..-■■! ?■■. '■■■■■■
E/CN.14/ASPP/L.2 English■■^■■■■'■.\i. . •• ■.
Page 27 //''■ '
^nd on emigration for 9 of these countries (not including countries for which data K-xluda overland .movements and t^os^of ..Africans). . The.latest repor-ted^figiipes^fnr
l tnat in sane cases the
ants -ref^r ;both to long-term and short-term immigrants tfoile thoee
£^^^ net MgratAon. . .
cannot bc-<teduced. ""With the'exception of I>Coroc:.co; the recorded numbers are insignifi cant, in proportion to the population of the countries concerned, but it is not to be taken for-granted tiiat the actual volume of-migration is insignificant, as the records :.iay represent only a -miner 'fraction of ttie ■movements occurring. Nor can it be taken
for granted, whsra the statistics show en excess of immigration over e^gration, that such is actually ths cars, ein-.c the proportion of actual eaiigration that is recorded
may not be the scurio as the proportion of Immigration.
39, Statistics of inunicrant3 'and emigrants ciasjified by sex and aga are given in the Dcaographic1 Xeai'book for 7 African countries as shown in tables III.2 and III.3.
th'.-se countries, the recorded"dr,ta indicate a preponderance of roal^s both among
2ranb-=! and emigrants, the porcentr^c of irolec being in the ;.range of 50 to 60 per cent excep-G....in the . .case-af-ealpanta from..tiaviritiusV \*iere-jSa.per ..cent 3jx.3$M-X&xe .males.
vJh:M.-) the majority of recor-dTld-'iLtgra^b in .all c^eXi^ra:^iiEulb-s3 children under 15 gears' of' ag-3'wdre' a sisesblo mrenc^ity/ constituting in most case's "from 20 to 30 per cor^ of the totil. Thvs, to judga by tlie recorded fieures, much of the migration to
jnd fran the countries \fbv KhiJi these cUta are available vould appear to be the move- aent of families vdth one or r.iorc children. It is quite posoible, howcr/er, that;'thestatistics ndsrspresenf, the sex-age competition of the migrant groups, as movements of
persona beion^in^ to certain Ga;:~,ige clasaes may be more fully racorded than others.40. In order to reach a satisfactory understanding of the demographic, social and
economic 5japlic\tior.G of international migration in Africa, it would be indispensable
to obtain statistics of at least appro:vlnr.tely comprehensive coverage, classified bysex and age groups r,3 well as occupational and other characteristics. The above review of data now available ssrvBr, only to ir4ici.tc the i^portarce of the present shortcomings
of information in this flelc\
E/CN.14/A3PP/L.2 E/CN.9/CONF.3/L.2
English Page 2S
TA.3IE III.l
E3C0BDBB BflflSftATIOi AND EMKaUTION FOR SELECTED AFRICAN COUNTHILS. RECENT
Country Year Long-term Net immigratio
ion^
Immigrants Emigrants Number Per cpnt of
population
Kenya: . I958
Mauritius and dep. 1958
Morocco 1958
Nigeria I957
Rhodesia and Nyasaland, .
Federation of 1958
Sa..nt Helena . 1958
South Africa 1958
South West Africa 1957
Tanganyika 1958
Uganda 1958
Zanzibar and Pemba 1958
b/ 9,284 c/ 169 c/ 4,443
c/ 4,746c/16,951
c/ 506b/14,673 b/ 357
b/ 5,200 b/ 3,152 b/ 5865,361
U53 6
32,845 -28,412 490 4,256
479 8,807 57 1,918 1,421
27
0.0 -0.28
0.01
0.0
Source: United Nations, Demographic Yearbook, 1959, table 33.
a/ Excess of recorded immigration over emigration. A minus sign (-)
net migration.
b/ Data refer to both long-term and short-term immigrants.
c/ Data refer to long-term immigrants only.
indicates
GN.U/ASbP/L.2
Angola Kenya
^
Mozambique South Africa
South West Africa
^
Tanganyika
^
1955 1958
1954 : 199?-
;. 1957 1958 /: '' ■:■.,.-.■ ■ -TAJIiE III .-2
PERCENTAGE DIsmBU.TI-OM'. QF UXXk-iM INT-;R2RTICK.AL
~"\\ '..'."~~TT; ,■ ...;•,,. ...■■Ev AFRICAN COUNTRIES
- ■ ■ - - ■- „ ■- ■ Percentage
Country , -Year ^le F€male
: ""■ "" EMIGRANTS ,
Angola .. ' 1955 '[ ,57 ' 43
*Ken^a; ' " ' \. ^ .' '1956 ' ; 60 W
Mauritius ani dep. ^ 195S .,"80 ,.; .20
Moroccf^ / "I 1958 ' 53 47
M«zamtique " ., 1954 . 56 44
South Africa ,. ' ' 1957 .. 50 50
South >est Africa . ' 1957 '„.. 46 54
Tanganyika^ ^ 1953"", '.55 45
H sh Page 29
EX
50
57 53
52 53
43
;47
48.47
Source; Percentages based on data published in United Nations Demographic Year book, 1957 and 1959-
a/ Sex distribution available for persons aged 15 years and over only.
b/ Data refer to both lonf-teim and short-term immigrants.
S/CN.14/ASPP/L.2
E/CN.9/C0NF.3/L.2 'Page 30\V.mwiiumm1 waWffl w.wniiuHLii
TA3IE 111,3 ■
DISTRIBUTION OF LONG-T £wl INT.m^TIONAL MIGRANTS XK AKaiCAH COUNTRIES ...
..Country„, Percentage in age group
4 35 t 54 5
Under 15 15 to.34 35 tp 54 55 and over Unknown
■Kenya ■ ■■• - ■ ■ ■ Mauritius and dep, Morocco
South Africa
South west Africa^*
Tanganyika
Kenya-'
Mauritius and dep.
Morocco
S^uth Africa-^
S»uth West Africa- Tanganyika-*
1958 1958 1958 1958 1957 1958
1958 1958 1958 1958
1957
1958
22 12 21 30 26 28
25 31 16 25 14 26
EMIGRANTS 42
69
41 39 39 1ANTS 48 38
48 60 47
26 7
16 3
- . . 79 • .-.
20 5
'19 16'
24 '5
19 5
25 6;
. . . 84 . . .
a 6
19 r
18 3'
4
4
Source: Percentages based on data published in United Nations, Demographic Year book, 1959.
a/ Values estimated for age groups shewn in the table for age groups 30 and
over from age categories given in official report,
b/ Data refer to both long-term and short-teim-immigrants.
English Page 31 IV. POPULATION. GROUTH IN AFRICA
A. Sources and limitations of data relating to population growth
41. Two types "of measures relating to population growth will be considered here:
(1) rates;'of: natural increase (i.e., excess of births over deaths), and (2) rates cf
population jgr$^ the net resultof^natural ..increase, _inn4^ati6n» _and__ _emigration. .:j-.:Sl^L^iS"^StP.t
42. What,has already been said about the errors and uncertainties of data^ on births and deaths in'African countries makes it unnecessary to emphasize that the rates of natural increase'derived from these data are in most cases trustworthy at best only as ap
proximate'indications of orders of magnitude. A similar caution applies to rates of populati6n* growth derived frcra the cbmparison of population totals of successive cen suses, aS*errors of enumeration at either census may have an important effect on the rate obtained. In fact, comparison between the results of recent and ^a^d-er-census pf a number of African countries make It appear that the earlier enumerations must
have beef^"Seriously deficient.—' Still-more dubious are the indications of popular
tion growth rates obtained by comparing, for different dates, official estimates of the population based on information other .^han census results. . , ., B, Levels and trends of population growth rates ,. : . ... :V_.,.43. Table IV.1 gives annual rates of,population growth and natural increase..^p.r African countries, derived from the types of sources mentioned above. In viewof.the
uncertainties of the data, these rates should be considered only as indicative, of
general orders of magnitude and patterns of population growth in the region,^and not
as accurate measures in each case. . . ■ . , .„,,..,
44. A rather wide diversity of growth- .rates is indicated. In the U.A.R. (£gy-p.jt,), for
example, .where the census, data are fairly'-.reliable, the annual rate cf growth was around 2i'5iper cent fou.the period 1947-6Q.: In West Africa, a number of countries
seem to We* 'experiencing "higher rates of population increase. On the other hand, the
data for "some African countries such as Cameroon, Gambia and Angola indicate rates of population'growth be].ow T, 5 per cent per annum. On the basis of available data, it has been estimated that the" 'annual rate of "growth of Africa as a whole during 1956-60 was 18/ For example, the annual rate of growth of 4.9 per cent for Ghana*1 obtained by com
paring the population totals reported in the censuses of I960 and 19^> casts doubt.on the accuracy of the 19V*. figure, although such a rate would not ;be im possible if thereliad been a large amount of immigration.
