Africans recruited from North of latitude 22° South, chiefly
N. B.: Descripancies between total numbers employed in Tables during the year of enumeration; and, (b) figures in this Table also
mines affiliated with the Chamber of Mines.
from Malawi (in 1976, 17,300
7 and 10 (a) reflect different times, include Africans employed by coal
43
-number of workers from the BLS was part of the strategy by the government of the Republic to compensate for the decline of the numbers from Mozambique and Malawi although the evidence is not quite clear whether there was a deli berate effort on the part of the government to effect this or the trend with respect to the BLS countries was merely a result of the interplay of market forces in terms of supply and demand. What is known for certain is that consequent upon the decline in the nunber of workers from Malawi and
Mozambique, there was an increase in the numbers recruited from within the Republic itself and their proportion of the total rose from 23.8% in Julys 1974 to 44.6% by July, 1976 13/.
80. Two reasons }AJ have been given for this. First, the South African government, perturbed by the vulnerability of the mines at a time when the price of gold was soaring, set out deliberately in cooperation with the Chamber of Mines to promote local recruitment. Success was attributable
to two main factors. First, the rising price of gold facilitated a sub stantial rise in mine labor wages. At the much higher wages, the mines began to attract local labour whose supply price had in the past always been much since it was set by the alternative opportunity not open to
foreign labor, of the much higher wages paid by manufacturing industries and other urban employers. These wages had themselves been pushed up in recent years, partly by the impact of adverse world opinion; but the increase was not nearly so great as that of wages in the mines. Wages in white agriculture hardly increased, and a majority of the South Africans who moved to the mines did so from white agriculture rather than from the
towns. A second explanation for the growing numbers of South Africans in the mines1 labor force, which had received less attention, is that South Africa in common with other countries had experienced a recession which had made it much harder to get or retain a job in manufacturing. It had also become harder to get jobs in manufacturing because the higher wages had caused employers to seek ways of economizing in the use of labor. Relativel;
high wages in manufacturing and other urban industries were no use to a -man who could not get a job and therefore make him look more favourably on the employment opportunities offered by the mines. But in practice it does not appear as if great numbers of urban unemployed had availed themselves of the opportunity.
81, On the whole, available evidence indicates that labour migration in Southern Africa subregion finds its origin in the discovery of the vast mineral wealth in the Republic of South Africa during the latter part of
the 19th century. The exploitation of that mineral wealth required enormous supply of labour. Heavy demands were also placed on agriculture to support a rapidly expanding urban population. The labour demands of a rapidly expanding economy in relatively under populated Republic of South .Africa manifested itself in initially growing labour shortages. An investigation of how the Republic of South Africa responded to this labour shortages, how labour supplies were formed and what change occurred in the labour market over time has been well documented (Arrighi, 1970; Bardill et al 1977: Hohning, 1977; Breytambach, 1972; Clarke, 1977a, 1977b, 1978;
Knight, 1976; Lexstener, 1967; Stahl et al 1979; Wilson, 1972; Solpe 1972).
Ill
14/ Ibid
44
-82. From these various studies, it is known that the Republic of South Africa probably owes its population growth mostly to net migration. This influx of people into the Republic consisted primarily of migratory labour deliberately recruited by the Pretoria Government to work in the white-owned mines, industry, commerce and agriculture because it benefited the South African economy. A large reservoir of black labour was maintained as a source of cheap and easily exploitable labour from which workers could be drawn at the employers will and into which workers could be dis carded with equal facility. The inflow of foreign African labour from other African countries especially those within the Southern African
subregion to this reservoir made its components more dependent upon employ ment by whites. The use of this foreign African labour reduced the
bargaining power of indigenous workers of the Republic since the foreign African workers were channelled into sectors of the economy shunned by indigenous workers. Besides, the foreign workers were used in the policy of deliberately dividing the workers in order to prevent working class action and resistance.
83. Consistent with the analytical strategy adopted for the Northern and Western subregions of Africa, the socio-economic indicators of
migration in the Southern Africa subregion are examined from the data in
Table 11. As in the case of Western Africa subregion, there is no association between socio and economic indicators of migration and the supply/demand labour situation in the Southern African subregion given a rank order correlation of 0.14 between per capita GNP and the population size of the 8 countries (Table 11) with some information on migration in the Southern Africa subregion.
34. Besides the aforementioned reasons accounting for the volume of workers in the Republic as well as the indicated fluctuations up to 1976, several other reasons have been adduced to explain the recent decline in the number of migrant workers to the Republic of South Africa. A con
tinuing inflation has been met with conservative monetary and fiscal policy.
There are also the factors of the removal of Africans from white areas to the "homelands" in the 1960s; the legislation restricting African agricultural holdings to "homelands", and, the transformation of its
economy from labour intensive to mechanized production process (Stahl, 1979).
(ii) Consequences of migration
85. Many of the economic, social and political costs and benefits of labour migration into the Republic of South Africa have been discussed at length in most of the 1L0 studies referred to earlier. The problem of making an effective summary of these three facets of the effects of migration in this context is sequel to what Elkan terms "an age-old problem of impossibility of knowing what would have been in the absence of migration". Accordingly, here only the economic costs and benefits of the problem as perceived by Elkan will be presented. Given the
dominance of the agricultural sector as the source of foreign exchange in the supplier states, Elkan focusses on the effects of labour migration on the agricultural turnover in the BLS countries and particularly on Lesotho.
For him, the absence of men from farms reduces the available labor supply
45
-Table 11
Socio-economic Indicators of Migration in Southern Africa
Country
GNP per capita in 1975 (U.S. $)
Population Size in 1975
(000s)
Natural rate of growth 1970/75
Literacy rate in 1975 (%) Republic of
South Africa Namibia
Zimbabwe Swaziland Botswana Mozambique Lesotho Malawi
1 320 870 540 470 330 310 180 150
25 501 876 6 247 488 672 9 164 1 177 5 174
2.7 2.8 N.A 2.7 2.3 2.3 1.9 2.4
47 38 3 25 20 10 40 22
Source: Amy Ong Tsui and Bogue* D.J. , 0p_. Cit.
A,;
46
-but may add to the farm household's command over resources if the migrants make remittances out of their earnings, or bring back with them sums of money saved or accumulated through systems of deferred pay, or return, with goods purchased in South Africa.
36= however, Elkan further argues that the effect of a reduction in the labor supply on farm output is extremely difficult to assess. The demand for labor in agriculture is subject to considerable seasonal
variation, and much may depend on the precise timing of the departure and return of migrants. The effect will depend also on the marginal productivity of labor in agriculture. If that is zero or close to it because population is pressing heavily on the land, as in Lesotho, then the absence of migrants may not affect output and instead will relieve the numbers who have to be fed out of what is harvested. But even if in the short run the marginal product of labor is zeros there may still be longer run losses arising from the absence of people who might have been innovators and thus created
conditions in which more people could have worked profitably on the farm.
What is more serious is that even though men may in fact be present at critical periods during the agricultural cycle, their long absence probably lead to a certain conservatism in farming methods and in the choice of crops. The crucial farming decisions are still taken by the men rather than by women, and if the men are absent for long periods it makes it
difficult for agricultural extension officers to persuade farmers to adopt change. They visit when only the women are present and cannot, therefore, directly influence the principal decision takers.
87. It is important not to exaggerate. Even in Lesotho where the propensity to be absent is highest, it is 55% of men of working age who are absent at any one time (not 95%) and the absentees appear to be widely distributed across the country. What is not in doubt is that virtually all observers are agreed that few farm households in Lesotho grow enough to support themselves even when the cash earnings from the sale of crops,
livestock, and livestock products (meat, wool, mohair) are taken into account.
In Swaziland and Botswana there has not been a comparable decline in the output per acre of agriculture. Both have more favorable ratios of population to land, though Botswana has experienced a similar extension of the frontier of cultivation as Lesotho. The arguments used earlier relate equally to these two countries. People do not migrate because of low farm incomes, but rather they weight the alternative opportunities of raising household income either by seeking to increase the output of their farms or by supplementing that income by migrating. Rising wages in the Republic of South Africa unmatched by comparably rising opportunities to increase farm yields have tilted the scales in favor of migration. The actual effect on farm productivity is virtually impossible to measure.
Indeed Che reasoning which leads to the finding that increased agricultural income does not necessarily reduce migration applies, of course, more widely than jusc to Southern Africa. It applies to large parts of Tropical Africa ar\d cf Asia ;::.:;. indeed, wherever people migrate to supplement farm income - .-tiicr c"'i2;* .;o -i.-rplant it:.
47
-88. It is easier to estimate the return flows from migration insofar as migrants recruited by the MLO are concerned. These return flows
consist of deferred pay, other remittances, and goods bought in the Republic of South Africa and brought back by returning migrants. In addition to deferred pay which is 60% of monthly wages, funds accrueto farm households through remittances. Some are made through the MLO,
others byi postal or money order, yet others via returning friends.Returning migrants also carry money with them as well as goods. These return flows from migration to the Republic of South Africa are of great importance to Lesotho. Unfortunately, comparable statistics are not
available for Botswana and Swaziland. The total amount of deferred pay
from the mines are, of course, smaller in the latter two as fewer migrants come from there. But it should also be borne in mind, that although the return flows from migration may be less important to these countries thanto Lesotho, they may be just as important to the families of the actual
migrants.
The Eastern Subregion
(i) Volume, Trends and Causes
89. Extending from Ethiopia to Tanzania and the islands of the East
African coast, the Eastern subregion is characterized by migration of a
longer duration (about 1 to 2 years) than the West subregion. But as in the case of the West African subregion, mass movement in the EastAfrican subregion in precolonial times resulted from warfare often
precipitated by pressure on natural resources setting up a chain re action of one people on another. Individual movements resulted from personal reactions to misfortune or opportunity and affected only a small minority. Later came the greater movement resulting from trade along the routes from the coast and their interior networks. Details of these developments are reported by Southall (1961) who notes that in prehistoric and proto-historic times tribes and sections of tribes usually moved slowly over long periods of time. Hunting peoples were gradually absorbed or forced into the most remote and inhospitable parts of the country. Some peoples were isolated, but most were incontinuous interaction, constantly causing changes, but only within the
narrow limits of subsistence economy with a varying emphasis on pas-toralism and agriculture. Climatic changes and natural disaster often forced people to move, encouraging changes in their way of life in certain directions and limiting them in others. These natural forces exerted only a negative determination, in prohibiting types of behaviour for which the requisite resources were absent, while the positive stimuli were only taken up when also favoured by features of the social systems of the peoples concerned. Trade followed by colonial rule shook people partly out of age-old patterns. The ease of movement for individuals increasedenormously. While the mass movement of whole peoples was often prevented
by administrative control. A great part of the population then became involved in the practice of migrant labour.48