HOUSEHOLD VULNERABILITY TO WEATHER SHOCKS:
CASE STUDIES ON COPING, ADAPTATION, AND MIGRATION FROM
THE MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, AND SOUTH ASIA
by Quentin Wodon
Dissertation for the
Ph.D. in Environmental Science and Management Département de Géosciences, Environnement et Société
Université Libre de Bruxelles November 13, 2016
Co-Director: Professor Edwin Zaccai (Université Libre de Bruxelles) Co-Director: Professor François Gemenne (FNRS et Sciences Po) Committee Chair: Professor Sabine Henry (Université de Namur) Committee Member: Jean-Michel Decroly (Université Libre de Bruxelles)
TABLE OF CONTENTS
TABLE OF CONTENTS i
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS iii
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1
PART I – BACKGROUND 4
CHAPTER 2: FRAMEWORK AND LITERATURE REVIEW 4
1. Introduction 4
1) Vulnerability to Weather Shocks 4
2) Coping and Adaptation 5
3) Migration 5
4) Objective of the Dissertation 6
2. Changes in the Environment and Weather Shocks 9
1) Climate Change and Weather Shocks 9
2) Context for the MENA Region 10
3) Heterogeneity between MENA Countries 11
4) Context for Algeria 13
5) Context for Egypt 14
6) Context for Morocco 15
7) Context for Syria 15
8) Context for Yemen 16
9) Context for South Asia 17
10) Context for the Sundarbans 18
3. Impact of Changes in the Climate on Households 20
1) Implications of Climate Change 20
2) Impact of Weather Shocks on Households: Multi-country Estimates 21 3) Impact of Weather Shocks on Households: Single Country Estimates 23
4. Coping and Adaptation – Four Approaches 24
1) General Considerations 24
2) Hazards Approach 25
3) Disaster Risk Management Approach 25
4) Vulnerability Approach 27
5) Resilience Approach 28
6) Framework Used for the Dissertation 29
5. Household Responses to Weather Shocks 30
1) Consumption Smoothing 30
2) Income Smoothing 31
3) Reduction in Investments 31
4) Other Mechanisms and Decision to Migrate 32
6. Decision to Migrate 33
1) Theories of Migration 33
7. Climate Change and Migration 39
1) General Considerations 39
2) Weather Shocks and Migration 41
3) Natural Disasters and Migration 42
4) Modelling Approaches 46
5) Foresight Framework 49
8. Importance of Remittances 50
1) Motivation to Remit 50
2) Impact of Remittances at Home 51
9. Discussion and Conclusion 53
CHAPTER 3: OBJECTIVE, DATA, AND METHODOLOGY 55
1. Introduction 55
2. Objective and Questions for the Study 56
3. Choice of Focus Countries 61
1) General Considerations 61
2) Population Size in MENA Countries 62
3) Vulnerability to Climate Change for MENA Countries 63
4) Geographic Context for MENA Countries 63
5) Socio-economic Development for MENA Countries 64 6) Availability of Other Data Sources for MENA Countries 64
4. Collection of New Household Survey Data 65
1) General Considerations 65
2) Data Collection for MENA Countries 66
3) Data Collection for the Sundarbans 67
4) Household Questionnaires 68
5) Definition of Quintiles of Well-being 70
6) Questions on Coping, Adaptation, and Migration 71 7) Definitions of Temporary and Permanent Migration 72 8) Subjective Reasons for Temporary and Permanent Migration 73
5. Use of Existing Survey and Census Data 74
1) National Survey for Morocco 74
2) Census, Survey, and Other Data for Yemen 75 6. Collection of Qualitative Data for the MENA Region 79
1) Rationale for Qualitative Analysis 79
2) Qualitative Data Collection 81
7. Methodologies for the Analysis 81
1) Data Sources by Question 81
2) Analytical Techniques 85
3) Techniques Used for Analyzing the Yemen Census and Survey Data 86
4) Triangulation 90
5) Limits of the Analysis 91
8. Discussion and Conclusion 93
CHAPTER 4: PERCEPTIONS OF CHANGES IN THE ENVIRONMENT AND IMPACT
OF WEATHER SHOCKS ON HOUSEHOLDS 94
1. Introduction 94
2. Do Households Perceive Negative Changes in their Environment? 96
1) MENA Region and Sundarbans Surveys 96
2) Morocco Survey 100
3. Are Most Households Negatively Affected by Weather Shocks and
Are They Affected to the Same Extent? 103
1) MENA Region Surveys – Exposure 103
2) MENA Region Surveys – Impacts 105
3) MENA Region Surveys – Correlates of Impacts 106
4) Morocco Survey – Exposure and Impacts 109
5) Morocco Survey – Correlates of Impacts 110
6) Sundarbans Surveys – Exposure 113
7) Sundarbans Surveys – Impacts and Correlates of Impacts 114
4. Discussion and Conclusion 117
CHAPTER 5: COPING AND ADAPTATION 121
1. Introduction 121
2. Do Households Have Sufficient Means to Cope with the Impacts of Weather
Shocks and Are They Able to Rely on Government Safety Nets? 123
1) MENA Region Surveys – Coping Mechanisms 123
2) MENA Region Surveys – Correlates of Coping Mechanisms 126 3) Morocco Survey – Ability to Recover from Shocks 130
4) Sundarbans Surveys – Coping Mechanisms 134
5) Sundarbans Surveys – Government Programs 135
6) Sundarbans Surveys – Correlates of Take-up of Government Programs 140 3. Do Households Actively Engage in Adaptation Strategies Related to
Environmental Change and Weather Shocks? 145
1) MENA Region Surveys – Adaptation Strategies 145 2) MENA Region Surveys – Correlates of Adaptation Strategies 149 3) Sundarbans Surveys – Adaptation Strategies 153 4) Sundarbans Surveys – Correlates of Adaptation Strategies 155 4. Do Communities and Governments Actively Engage in Adaptation Strategies
Related to Environmental Change and Weather Shocks? 157
1) MENA Region Surveys – Community Responses 157
2) MENA Region Surveys – Government Responses 158 3) Sundarbans Surveys – Community and Government Responses 161 5. Are Households Warned Ahead of Time of Rapid Onset Shocks? 163
1) Sundarbans – Statistical Analysis 163
2) Sundarbans – Correlates of Being Warned 165
CHAPTER 6: MIGRATION 171
1. Introduction 171
2. Are Changes in the Environment and Weather Shocks Major Reasons
Mentioned by Households for Individual Members to Migrate? 175
1) Individual Migration Rates 175
2) Self-Declared Reasons for Individual Migration 180
3) Heterogeneity between Countries 184
3. Are Individuals in Households Affected More by Weather Shocks or With Stronger Negative Perceptions of Changes in the Environment More Likely
to Migrate than Individuals in Less Affected Households? 186
1) MENA Region Surveys 186
2) Morocco Survey 194
3) Sundarbans Surveys 195
4) Other Variables Affecting Individual Migration 196 4. Are Out-migration Rates Higher in Areas with Less favorable Climate? 199 1) Census-based Migration Rates between Districts in Yemen 199 2) Potential Future Net Migration Flows in Yemen 202 5. Are There Gains from Migration for Migrants and Families Back Home? 205
1) Qualitative Results for the MENA Region 205
2) Importance of Remittances in Yemen 212
6. Triangulation of the Results 219
7. Discussion and Conclusion 222
CHAPTER 7: CONCLUSION 226
1. Summary and Discussion of the Main Results 226
1) Data Sources 226
2) Perceptions and Impacts of Weather Shocks on Households 227
3) Coping and Adaptation Strategies 231
4) Temporary and Permanent Migration 236
2. Potential Implications of the Analysis 239
3. Areas for Further Research 243
REFERENCES 245
ANNEX 1: PROCESS FOR THE DISSERTATION 273
ANNEX 2: STANDARD ERRORS 276
ANNEX 3: HOUSEHOLD SURVEY DATA COLLECTION 278
ANNEX 4: TERMINOLOGY 298
ANNEX 5: ADDITIONAL STATISTICAL TABLES 300
