Proceedings of the International Conference on Integrated Drought Management:
Lessons for Sub-Saharan Africa
20 - 22 September 1999 Pretoria, South Africa
IHP-V 1 Technical Documents in Hydrology 1 No. 35
UNESCO
The designations employed and the presentation of material throughout the publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of UNESCO concerning the legal status of any
country, territory, city or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
OPENING SESSION
Opening address : Ronnie Kasrils, Minister of Water Affairs and Forestry (South Africa)
Keynote address : C Kapuyanyika-Bepura, SADC Food Security Sector (Zimbabwe)
Keynote address : D Wilhite, International Drought Information Centre (USA)
THEME : CHALLENGES FOR FORECASTING FOR SUSTAINABLE NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
Kevnote address: Integrated drought early warning - the Botswana example (CB SEAR and K Campbell)
Warm ENS0 event of 1997/98: NDVI precursor and drought pattern prediction for southern Africa (A ANYAMBA, J Ronald Eastman and C J Tucker)
VegSat - a satellite system to monitor vegetation related geodynamic processes (D BANNERT, BGR and W Kruck)
The contribution of extra-tropical sea-surface temperature anomalies on the 1996/97 rainfall simulations over the South African summer rainfall region (FA ENGELBRECHT and C J de W Rautenbach)
Monitoring and predicting drought in southern Africa (M R JURY)
Role of regional climate system monitoring and prediction in drought manage- ment (B J GARANGANGA)
Comparison of trend and general circulation model based projections of seasonal and annual rainfall in the east African region (FM MUTUA)
Characterisation of meteorological drought in Mozambique (MJ Santos and A Goncalves-Henriques)
The four tiers of seasonal prediction at the South African Weather Bureau (WA LANDMAN)
Numerical rainfall predictions for the South African 1998199 summer season using the CSIRO-9 (R21) AGCM (C J DE W RAUTENBACH)
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37
56
65
67
76 79
87
99
109
113
THEME : CLIMATE VARIABILITY: IMPLICATIONS OF SUSTAINABLE NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
Kevnote address: Climate variability: implications for sustainable natural resource management (M SEELY)
The role of drought in rangeland dynamics: a model and applications (JC VENTER)
Small-scale spatial rain distribution: the effect of temporal and spatial rain distribution on drought and crop yield at village level (E A R MELLAART) Rainfall cycles, population growth and perceptions of drought: a case study from south east Zimbabwe (PB MORIARTY and CJ Lovell)
Recent climatic trends in northern interior Savannah zone of Ghana (G KRANJAC-BERISAVLJEVIC)
Effects of meterological parameters on Sahelian drought, North Africa (A M ABDELMEGEED)
Analysis of meteorological droughts in Tanzania (BS Nyenzi, MM Kavishe, IR Nassib and FF TILYA)
Assessing vulnerability to drought and possible effects of climate change on water resources in a semi-arid country (AC MOSTERT, G van
Langenhoven and B de Bruine )
From global to regional scale: the use of regional case studies to improve global forecast methods for drought management in the Sahel of Burkina Faso (M W KAPPAS)
The partnership between government and the private sector (insurance/
reinsurance) in he management of drought (B T CHIWOTA)
Pastoral vulnerability to drought in semi-arid parts of Laikipia District, Kenya (J K MUSINGI)
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133
138
148
157
166
176
198
210
221
230
THEME : BUILDING DROUGHT RESILIENCE FOR THE “AT RISK”:
STRATEGIES THAT REDUCE VULNERABILITY OF FRAGILE ECOSYSTEMS AND COMMUNITIES
Food security and vulnerability assessment in Zimbabwe (P MASANGANISE) 237 Planning for groundwater drought in Africa (R CALOW, B Orpen, N Robins and
A MacDonald and A Nicol)
255
Integrating productive water points into rural water supply as a means of coping with drought (C J LOVELL, A Kremer, PB Moriarty, T Dube, DMJ MacDonald and F Lombe)
271
Avert impact of drought on some health issues (W S GOMA) 282 ii
Sustainable planning of desert land reclamation project as related to drought management: an integrated approach (S M EL-ZOGHBY)
Addressing desertification : combination of traditional methods and new technologies for sustainable development (W VAN COTTHEM)
Rural periodical market: their role in drought and food crisis mitigation and early warning systems: case study from northern Kordofan State in Sudan (A S MUSTAFA)
Strategies to reduce drought vulnerability: with special emphasis on coping strategies of the poor: sub-Sahara semi-arid area, western Sudan
(A H I ELFAIG)
Integrated drought management in Cape Verde Islands (A A SABINO) Critical factors that predispose people and landscape to drought vulnerability and key combatant measures to reduce that vulnerability (R MWENDA) Integrated catchment management in the Mlazi River catchment: Is there really an opportunity to involve local people in optimising natural resource use?
(R AUERBACH)
THEME : INTEGRATING DROUGHT CONSIDERATIONS INTO POLICY:
KEY PRINCIPLES
Kevnote address: Integrating drought policy - assessment and management (D H WHITE)
Environmental education, drought and the rural man: implications for policy makers and farmers in West Africa (A A LADELE)
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329
339 350
357
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378
Opening Address at the International Conference on Integrated Drought Management, Pretoria, 20-22 September 1999
By Minister Ronnie Kasrils, MP
. Mr. Chairman and conference delegates from all over the world and from every part of our continent, South Africa is truly honoured to host this important international event. Despite a feeling of great humbleness in addressing you as the new Minister of Water Affairs and Forestry, I cannot but share with you my elation in welcoming you to this new South Africa. You should know how much we cherish our newfound freedom and democracy and opportunities like these in which we can share again with the rest of the world.
. It is appropriate that we have come together today under the auspices of UNESCO, the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, encompassing the spheres of life that have the strongest bearing on progress and on the crossing of many human boundaries. It is nearly three years ago that UNESCO% Director-General, Federico Mayor, suggested the international drought conference as part of the International Hydrological Programme during his visit to South Africa. What he had in mind, was a focus, not only on South Africa, but on the whole sub-continent of Africa, south of the Sahara, and that, while the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction from 1990 to 2000 was still in progress.
. Mr. Chairman, delegates, at an international conference on drought, one has to start with an international perspective, and what better source could there be than the just released report, GEO-2000, by the United Nations Environmental Programme, (UNEP) widely reported in the media last week. The report sends out very strong alarm signals in warning that the world’s environment is facing catastrophic damage, and time is fast running out to devise a policy of sustainable human development. It stresses that the planet now faces “full-scale emergencies”
on several fronts, including global warming and associated climate change, massive urban air pollution, large-scale over-exploitation of the seas, as well as serious degradation of soil and water resources. Furthermore, the world’s population growth is adding to the strain on resources, the report says. The UN experts say the causes of the dramatic worsening of the environment are complex, but the most obvious source is the gap between rich and poor countries. This last observation cannot be ignored or underestimated and must be confronted head-on if lasting solutions are to be found.
. What is the situation on our own continent? It is pertinent to note that the six warmest years this century in southern Africa have all occurred since 1980, and the decade 1986 - 1995 has also been the driest. Chance, or the signs of a new trend? While realizing the very high natural variability of climate in our continent and region, there appears to be a balance of opinion that we will experience a decreasing water reliability in coming decades. And this for a continent which comprises mostly arid to semi-arid regions and high populations in relation to the usable water available from the hydrological cycle. Two thirds of Africa’s population is in a situation where endemic water scarcity can be expected.
. Some serious thinkers believe that a next world war could be fought over access to water, or to put it symbolically, over a glass of clean water. This intrigues me as an former military man, but at the same time gives a different focus to my new responsibility.
. As we speak, part of our Eastern Cape Province is considering when to introduce water rationing, and agriculture in the Western Cape is experiencing a particularly dry winter, normally the wet season in that part of the world -just emphasizing that drought is with us to stay, and we have to learn to manage it better and better as water scarcity grows. A wonderful example in this regard from the past is from our own continent. You will all remember the biblical wisdom of Joseph in ancient Egypt, advising Pharao on the need to prepare for the seven lean years during the seven fat years. It is the same concerns and approaches that have brought us together - making drought management part of sustainable d
f velopment.
. I believe it is essential to create a much greater awareness about drought and growing water scarcity and about the massive and widespread impact of this phenomenon. The most vulnerable ecological and socio-economic systems are those with the greatest sensitivity to climate change and least able to adapt. Socio-economic systems tend to be more vulnerable in developing countries with weak agro-based economies. Institutions and communities living in arid and semi- arid lands of developing countries are generally one of the most vulnerable groups of all.
. Poverty in the region is strongly related to access to clean drinking water and to sanitation and reliance on rain-fed crops. Shortages of safe water for drinking and for hygiene purposes and limited sanitation services all contribute to human health problems. Poor health conditions and high mortality rates have severely diminished human welfare and productivity.
. A recent global assessment of regional fresh water resources confirmed that a quarter of the world population has no safe water supply and a half lacks adequate sanitation. Although much progress has been achieved by our democratic government since 1994, South Africa still has 71/N million without a basic water supply and 21 million without basic sanitation. Other countries in the region have a similar or even worse situation.
. Food security, according to a SADC document of 1998, appears to have deteriorated significantly in the last 10 to 15 years through drought impact on both rain-fed crops and livestock production.
In this regard it is important to note that, while national food security is rarely endangered, large numbers of South Africans, particularly those in rural areas, live with chronic food insecurity, compounded by the risk of acute socio-economic and natural set-backs. In South Africa these conditions were exacerbated by the apartheid era policies of over-concentrating people in the former homelands with a completely inadequate agricultural and economic base, and without access to stabilized water supplies, not to mention the absence of other basic human rights.
. The developed sector of the economy is less vulnerable to droughts, but only at the cost of very high capital investment in balancing storage dams and extensive networks of pipelines and canals.
Where this high assurance against drought risk has not yet been achieved, the impact on our people and the economy can be extremely high.
. Besides the direct human impact of water scarcity and drought, there is the serious impact on the environment. Rapid population growth, an increasing livestock population, overstocking, indiscriminate burning of grass and the relentless cutting down of trees, which have been going on unchecked, particularly in the rural areas, have all added to a process of desertification in large parts of Africa.
. In all this is a spiralling effect in which one disaster increases the vulnerability of at-risk communities to the next disaster. The key to breaking this spiral is clearly not in short-term intervention, but in the introduction of effective measures to reduce vulnerability.
. When looking forward we should also look back and try to learn as much as possible from past experiences. This has been very well achieved in the Regional Drought Management Strategy for SADC, the Southern African Development Community, which has just been published and I would like to highlight some of those lessons.
. Firstly, without an explicit definition of drought, declaration of drought was often determined by ad hoc or political reasons rather than more scientific and carefully appraised processes. Lack of sound economic and social rationale in these decisions immensely increased the burden on the
. Secondly, ad hoc responses have raised questions with respect to their impact on equity and efficiency objectives. Often substantial sums of public financial resources have reached farmers whose food security was never under direct threat from drought, while those worst at risk were excluded. Furthermore, hastily planned programmes have tended to reward inefficient farmers and keep non-viable farming enterprises from moving out of agriculture. Drought aid programmes have even encouraged adoption of agricultural practices that damage the natural resource base, e.g. overstocking and expansion into marginal areas.
. Thirdly, the implementation of hurriedly planned infrastructural projects has sometimes resulted in substandard infrastructure as well as misappropriation of resources, leaving people and livestock dependent upon unsustainable systems.
. And fourthly, strong criticism has been levelled at the dependency syndrome created by government drought relief and recovery programmes and the distortions they caused on local markets. In some countries, food handouts and free input packages, which were distributed from year to year to alleviate suffering, created artificial supply and demand conditions on local food and input markets which threatened the viability and growth of trade.
. A critical factor in the effectiveness of disaster management is the preparedness of policy, management strategies, pre-determined intervention criteria and emergency action plans. A great deal of valuable time can be lost and confusion caused if planning for intervention only happens when the disaster has already struck. This we also learned in South Africa during the 91/92 drought.
. Together with the requirement for a much more planned approach to the management of actual disasters, there is also a growing realization in the region, that drought in all its manifestations needs a developmental rather than crisis-management reaction.
. It is against this background that I wish to focus on our theme of intearated drought management.
I believe that what was said at the important “1998 International Conference on World Water Resources at the Beginning of the 21” Century” with regard to management of scarce water resources in general, also holds for drought management. The conference saw the challenge as a variety of actions, which can mitigate the water crisis, and create opportunities for improving the quality of life, maintaining ecosystems and generating wealth and sustainable development.
Actions must be taken within a framework of many new partnerships, must be much more participatory and transparent, and must lead to increasing flexibility of water resource systems and the institutions that manage them.
. The water conference also stressed the growing international realization that sustainable development is impossible to achieve without much greater attention to social justice and equity in a nation”s national priorities. To put this into practice it recommended that water and sanitation budgets of countries should be dramatically increased and come closer to national government commitments for defence and security.
. South Africa has progressed substantially along this path with its Water Services Act of 1997, and the National Water Act of 1998. The key instruments, embodied in these acts - resource protection, conservation and equitable access and allocation, together with widespread participation and devolution -will also, I believe, provide the platform for a more integrated and sustained drought management.
. Similarly, the country has made great strides with new policy for the agricultural sector, and with an overarching disaster management policy. While sustainable resource use is the governing principle, the agricultural policy also pays particular attention to food security at the household level, and the persistently marginalized small scale black farmer. The Disaster Management Policy has as its main theme “Prepare, Pyent, Mitigate ‘I. It envisages a National Disaster
Management Centre, aimed at co-ordinating activities at national level, and is an indication of the seriousness of government in this regard.
. The need for integration of many diverse development endeavours in South Africa runs like a golden thread through President Mbeki’s thinking and will find strong expression during this term of government.
. I have also been greatly encouraged by the progress in our region towards co-operation in the water management field, of which later speakers will, I am sure, have more to say. To create the linkage into the region, I would just like to mention the creation, in 1996, of a distinct sector for water within the SADC structure, with its SADC Water Co-ordination Unit based in Maseru, and in 1999 the formulation of a “Regional Drought Management Strategy for SADC”.
. Mr. Chairman, ladies and gentlemen, I believe our region is clearly creating the foundations for what this conference is about - Integrated drought management. Allow me just to conclude with a few observations.
. As we approach the new millennium, sustainable development and environment issues are taking centre stage in the international and local arena. Water resources are one of the primary driving forces of sustainable development, with the extremes of water resources emerging as the most critical issue that needs to be dealt with immediately.
. The region does not have the economic, nor human resources capacity, to move rapidly from largely ad hoc drought relief actions to a long-term focused integrated drought management strategy.
It will therefore be imperative to target both national and collective regional action to priority areas of environmental and developmental concerns. Here I cannot stress enough the continued investment into basic water supply and other basic needs programmes as both a developmental and a drought-proofing strategy.
. Successful disaster management, including drought management, can only be achieved in the spirit of partnerships and co-operative governance due to the cross-cutting nature of disaster management. Regional co-operation and the establishment of joint standards of practice is very important.
, I believe that co-ordinated information gathering and dissemination is one of the highest regional priorities as a basis for co-operative regional drought management. With the UNESCO-assisted Southern Africa FRIEND programme, the World Bank/WMO-assisted SADC HYCOS programme and the Early Warning Centre in Harare, the region already has a number of initiatives towards pooling its information resources for common benefit. International, regional and national political will is now required to move towards more integrated and sustainable systems.
. Increasingly we will need our own research to be able to make crucial breakthroughs. The South African Rainfall Enhancement Programme is a case in point. Years of intensive research have brought those breakthroughs, which are internationally acknowledged. The issue now is one of sustained funding to bring the programme to an operational level and regional application. No country, not even developed countries, can carry such research and development on its own.
. Developments in our region, as I have tried to sketch them, present new opportunities for donors to redirect aid from a limited disaster focus to a more sustainable form of aid in which the livelihood of those at risk is built up over time. At the highest level one could visualize the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR) focusing on the region, with demonstration projects which could encompass some of the already ongoing initiatives and regional action requirements. This could also create an entry point for the Global Water
. It is important to note here that better international co-operation and involvement by the private sector, particularly by international companies, was one of the strongest recommendations of the GEO-2000 report discussed in the introduction.
. But we must never forget our own resources. I introduced the story of Egypt and Joseph earlier on with a purpose. There is so much wisdom and appropriate practice in Africa, from thousands of years of coping with water stress. I think of the sand storage dams in Namibia and elsewhere, the lines of stone for water conservation in West Africa, and the different runoff harvesting approaches in many parts of our continent. We need to give thought already to what President Mbeki’s African Renaissance concept could mean in water and drought management terms?
. In coming to a close, I still need to let you know that the UN GEO-2000 report was not entirely gloomy. In fact, it has praise for the growing awareness about the environment that is forcing governments in many countries to make decisive changes.
. I am an optimist and strongly believe that with the wisdom base of our continent, the harnessing of science and technology, with large-scale public awareness and with the necessary political will, we can master drought on this continent of Africa. I hope that this will encourage countries, scientists, administrators, politicians, donors, and the general public, represented here by the media, to take steps in averting, what some have called “a looming crisis”, with positive action towards integrated drought management.
. In doing so we dare not loose sight of the UN GEO-2000 report’s observation that the gap between rich and poor countries is the most obvious cause of our global environmental crisis. We will be guilty of dereliction of our collective duty if we fail to confront this challenge and I call on conference to grasp this thorny nettle with the necessary courage and conviction.
. We must be inspired by the story of Joseph. In South Africa we already have a variety of measures in place, ranging from the traditional to highly innovative. These include our impressive system of dams and the new focus on water conservation, with special attention to schoolchildren, our future generation, and on the education of our people, especially farmers and rural communities.
We must build further on our science and technology as illustrated by the rainfall enhancement programme. Nationally these efforts must be shared and multiplied through the planned establishment of catchment agencies throughout the country and internationally through the signing of treaties and protocols with our neighbouring countries regarding shared water resources. To pull these various threads together towards a concerted and planned action, South Africa envisages the establishment of a Disaster Management Centre.
. Chairperson, delegates, guests, I wish you well with the deliberations over the next three days and look forward to fruitful resolutions which will assist us in serving our people and finding solutions to the scourge of drought. I am confident that, with a programme like this through the awareness and actions of one’s people in a democratically motivated society and through the co-operation of neighbours and nations, humanity will be able to surmount the problems of drought and disaster. We will then be able to sleep peacefully as Pharoa did after Joseph interpreted his dream for him and devised a plan of action.
DROUGHT MANAGEMENT : A SADC PERSPECTIVE
International Conference on Integrated Drought Management : Lessons for Africa SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
FOOD AGRICULTURE AND NATURAL RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT UNIT PO Box 4046,
Merchant House, 79684718 43 Robson Manyika Avenue, Harare, Zimbabwe.
Email: cbepura@fanr-sadc.co.zw Telephone: +263 4 736051/2; 728528;
Facsimile: +263 4 795345
presented by Clive Bepura, Programme Manager.
1. Preamble
With a gross population of 181 million in 1995 and an estimated 297 million in 2015(see Table l), the 14 SADC member states constitute about 30 percent of Sub-Saharan Africa(SSA)‘s population. At US$177 billion in 1995, SADC accounts for approximately 60 percent of SW’s Gross Domestic Product(GDP).
About 70 % of SADC’s population depend on rural agriculture while the sector’s contribution to Sub- Saharan Africa GDP ranges from 5 % to 58 % across SADC as demonstrated in Table 2. Agriculture remains the mainstay of economic activity in most countries and the main source of food, farm incomes, export earnings, employment and industrial raw materials as indicated in Table 2. Yet the SADC agricultural growth rate has been very erratic over the past 20 years, with an average annual rate of 1.5 percent between 1980 and 1995.
In addition, agriculture is marked by a predominance of rain-fed subsistence farming, leaving food security for about 70% of the population directly dependent on the fortunes of the climate. Even in the commercial farming sectors, agricultural production is heavily dependent on the nature and patterns of rains. Only a small fraction of the regional irrigation potential has been developed. This high
dependency on rain-fed production systems increases the vulnerability of the region to periodic food and water shortages induced by droughts.
2. Incidence of Drought and Food Insecurity
Data available indicates that from 1980 to 1996, the region was struck by four major droughts during 1982-83, 1987-88, 1991-92 and 1994-95, a frequency as high as once every four years while recovery from a single drought takes about two to three years. Three of recent droughts(1982-83, 1991-92 and 1994-95) were severe and region-wide. The 1991-92 was the worst of the century. All these and past droughts were linked to the occurrence of a warm El-Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean.
At the country-level, drought affliction tends to be more frequent, in some instances totally decimating agricultural and economic prospects in member countries. Yet, in certain regions of some countries, poor rains akin to drought conditions are a permanent feature. In some cases, drought spells are preceded by other disasters such as flooding and violent cyclones.
Droughts are not the only cause of food insecurity in the SADC region. However, the immediate-thaw impact of droughts intensify and worsen the magnitude/coverage of food insecurity. Table 3 indicates mostly drought-induced variability of food availability measured in terms of year to year maize production. Maize represents 70% (Food Security Bulletin, 6/98) of the annual cereal food requirements of 12 member states(excluding Seychelles and DRC).
3. Regional Concerns at the Formation of SADCC
Given the above scenario, it is not surprising that founding fathers of the then Southern Africa Development Coordination Conference(SADCC) had the following concerns when they adopted the 1980 Lusaka Declaration:-
the need to guarantee food security in member countries;
chronic threat of food deficits in the face of growing population-food imbalances;
frequent droughts for which there were no considered strategies and plans;
movement of people to marginal areas highly prone to environmental degradation.
These were later to form the main basis for food security regional cooperation. As a result, the SADCC proclaimed a food security programme as one of its first priorities in the Programme of Action adopted as pan of the Lusaka Declaration. Implementation of the food security programme started in 1981 under the coordination of Zimbabwe. Since then the SADC Food Security programme developed into several inter-linked regional initiatives of which the food and drought monitoring Regional Early Warning System(REWS) for Food Security is most important.
4. The REWS as the Response Tool to Recurrent Droughts and Food Insecurity
The SADC’s earliest reaction to the threat of climatic variability and food insecurity in 1987 was to establish Regional Early Warning System (REWS) based in Zimbabwe to act as a tool for drought management. This is an integrated information and response mechanism whose main components comprise of the Regional Early Warning Unit (REWU) based in Harare, a network of country-level National Early Warning Units in member countries, and the Regional Remote Sensing Project. The remote sensing component was introduced in 1988 in order to strengthen the system and reliability of forecasts through GIS/agro-met information.
4.1 The REWS Objectives
From inception, the REWS= objective has been to collect information on the food situation in the various countries through the NEWUs and then assess the food prospects for the region. The information is then disseminated as regular food security warnings on food/grain stocks. The facility therefore provides the regional basis for a co-ordinated approach when threatened by possible famine such as the 1992 and 1995 drought situation when SADC mounted international drought appeals.
4.2 REWS Outputs and Activities
a. Data/information generation and exchange.
b. Co-ordination of NEWUs activities.
c. Analysis of the food/grain situation leading to export/import decisions.
d. Providing basis for food security policy analysis.
e. Training of early warning practitioners, back-stopping and equipping NEWUs.
f. Early warning methodology development.
5. SADC Approach to Early Warning Prior the 1992 Drought 5.1 Introduction
The earlier approach to warning system in the SADC was linked to the prevailing definition of food security. The approach was well in line with the prevailing SADC food security definition that
emphasised food availability. In addition, the political and economic environment predominated by the processes of decolonisation, economic destabilisation and anti-apartheid politics reinforces a food security policy oriented towards ensuring food availability through self-sufficiency.
5.2 Food Availability Approach
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The food security programme therefore focused on helping member States increase national food availability through expanded domestic production, reduced losses, improved grain storage and grain importation. The REWS would serve as an alarm system that would trigger off a response to
emergency food and other requirements. Information provided by REWS was meant to prepare the region for famine relief operations. Relief operators, donors and government agents used the early warning information to plan for the emergency requirements and the impending crisis of food
shortages. The REWS or rather the food assessment methodologies were also limited in coverage to staple maize grain and coverage other cereals such as wheat, rice, sorghum and millet was not as strong. Socio-economic, market, prices and other indicators were not considered.
The definition of food security did not raise issues of access to food in the wider context of economic development, trade promotion and poverty elimination as later conceptualised in the 1997 SADC Food Security Strategy Framework. However, SADC agreed on a common set of objectives and overall programme for the Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources sectors in 1986 and 1987. This was to be coordinated by the Food Security Sector and important for the redefinition of food security as an organising principle and objective as a result of lessons from the 1992 as well as a conducive regional political and economic environment; majority rule in Namibia and South Africa and the end of
destabilisation/colonial conflict.
The shift in policy was to come after the 1992 drought and fully articulated in the 1997 Food Security Strategy Framework as will be explained below.
6. Lessons From Regional Droughts Since 1992 6.1 Introduction
The REWS issued the first warning of an impending regional drought in late 1991 and on 16 April 1992 a SADC ministerial meeting formed a Regional Drought Task Force, inclusive of national task force representatives. Six regional transport corridor groups were formed while it was agreed at the same meeting that a joint UN/SADC international Appeal for food aid and non-food aid needs for the region be presented to the world. The Appeal was presented to donors at a specially convened conference in Geneva from 1 to 2 June 1992. The process was repeated when the 1994/95 drought struck. As the real test cases for the REWS, in both incidents potential human disasters were avoided.
The SADC Food Security Technical and Administrative Unit, now the Food Agriculture and Natural Resources Development Unit, commissioned a number of national and regional conferences, workshops, seminars and studies in the wake of the 1992 and then the 1994/95 droughts.
6.2 Drought Lessons
The following are some of the lessons and experiences the region gained from the two droughts;
6.2.1 Poverty and Vulnerabilty
Poverty is the root cause of vulnerability to disasters, be they natural or man-made. Amongst the most vulnerable at the micro level are smallholder farmers without income diversification, limited or no access to productive resources such as land, inputs, irrigation and and skills; low wage-earning, informal sector and net food-purchasing household; poor households in war-tone zones; households who cannot afford curative or preventive care; asset-starved female-headed households. At the macro level, limited growth of theagricultural/rural sector, lack of economic growth and unemployment and income diparity, are also major causes. These factors are often the consequence of impoper policy.
Drought, war, declining terms of trde against developing economies and other exogenous shocks further weaken the food security systems of the vulnerable.
6.2.2 Need for Long Term Preparedness
Drought itself need not translate into a debilitating disaster where effective economic development policies are in place and emergency mechanisms can be mobilized in time. The cycle of normal, below/above normal parameters of climate are predictable in SADC subregions. It is therefore an issue what short and long term mechanisms governments are ready to put in place to prevent crisis arising out of disasters such as droughts.
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As result, the region needed to develop drought policy at regional and national levels to articulate a long tern--- development perspective but at the same time realise that the merii was more in
implementing agreed strategies;
6.2.3 Short and Long Term Policy Trade-Offs
There was need for a policy trade-off between long term and short term drought
management/mitigation strategies and programmes to ensure that short term mitigation/relief measures do not compromise long term development efforts.
6.2.3 Economic Investment
Long term investment needed to focus on agricultural/rural development, industrial expansion for employment generation, national and intra-regional trade development, general economic
development and poverty alleviation. Appropriate water and hydro-electric tariff policies needed to reflect the true cost of supply to encourage efficient utilisation. Investments needed to be made in water resource development, reduction in waste and loss, recycling and improved sanitation.
6.2.4 Drought Risk and Planning
The probability of drought has typically been ignored in the medium to short term planning, leading to the setting of over-optimistic economic growth targets. Long term production and income variability due to drought has not been directly addressed as a result. Yet national economic planning needed to factor-in the risk of drought and incorporate it into the national, provincial and project budgets.
6.2.5 The Early Warning System and Methodologies
Early warning system technologies and methodologies needed to be strengthened/refined as well as adjust to changing economic policy and technical change. Two main methods of spatial analysis techniques are used in the SADC’s REWS, namely field assessments that incorporate meetings with local officials, NGOs, CBOs and the affected community and secondly, remote sensing.
The role and importance of alternative food crops in the balance sheet needed to be reviewed. In addition, the number of early warning agencies had increased dramatically in the region with the result that conflicting warnings are issued. Market reforms had been implemented through out the region with mono-channel marketing systems being abolished. With the changing role of government in ensuring food security, the generation, packaging and dissemination of food security early warning information constantly needs adaptation in order to maintain focus and relevance to the needs of the broad range of new users that unfold (e.g., farmers, millers, traders, individuals, etc.).
Economic policy reforms had led to radical market changes. Governments have withdrawn from markets with parastatals being privatised, commercialised or abolished. Single channel marketing systems have been abolished and markets opened to other private players. At the same time, a multiplicity of stakeholders in the private and not-for-profit, as well as the public sectors have emerged as pressure groups and development protagonists. Approaches to early warning needed to
accommodate these changes and redefine the clientele and the new strategic partners and allies.
6.2.6 More Issues on Early Warning
Smallholder farmers utilise early warning information on a broader scale than otherwise suggested by conventional perception. Hence, investments to improve timeliness of delivery of early warning
information are needed. Secondly, the packaging of early warning information requires refinement, taking a more holistic disaster management approach. Third, more work is needed towards generation of location specific climate forecast data. While at the regional level, or national level, actual rainfall statistics clearly confirmed that 1997-98 was a below normal rainfall season (although not worse or equal to the 1991-92 drought), alarm was raised when global predictions appeared to have been used as the basis for generating localised solutions.
There is now a greater need for long range inter-annual forecasting within the region. Apart from assisting farmers in deciding on risk management measures like crop insurance, reasonably good long range forecasts would also assist governments in assessing cultivation plans, formulating crop marketing and appropriate export/import strategies.
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6.2.7 Insurance Against Drought
Insurance against the risk of drought in agriculture and other water intensive industries is generally limited in SADC. Though not a direct solution, it helps to transfer and convert the risk of impact and enables quick recovery without necessarily strain the government budget. Agriculture and water- intensive industries needed to be encouraged to internalise drought risk by taking up insurance. The constraint is that in some countries the insurance industry is not as developed.
6.2.7 Agricultural and Food Policies
Agricultural and food strategies at both regional and country level needed to be continuously analysed and improved. Firstly, minimum food stocks needed to be maintained at national and decentralised levels, while the acceptable level of risk and reserve would be reviewed at country level. Reserves are costly to maintain so the option open to countries is to keep the physical stock at the minimum and hold part of the reserve in financial form. Secondly, it is essential that extension messages encourage the farming of crops that are suitable to the local agronomic conditions. In some countries existing policy encourage the production of maize in areas of marginal rainfall needed to be reversed and more stress-tolerant millets and sorghum grown.
Thirdly, mono-cropping also needed to be reversed back towards intercropping with drought tolerant crops to reduce vulnerability of subsistence farmers. Fourthly, the availability and productive potential of stress-tolerant varieties needed to be enhanced while the long term downturn of agricultural research budgetary allocations in member states needed to be reversed. Fifth, future growth of agricultural production in SADC depended on the development of irrigation.
6.2.8 Policy Research and Analysis
The region needed to build a strong policy research and analytical capacity. This will facilitate food security and agriculture-related policy analysis and networking leading to improved regional and national food security policies, more harmonisation between national policies, and a more conducive regulatory environment.
7. SADC Approach to Drought Management since 1992 7.1 Introduction
As a result of the above experience, the SADC is in the process of re-looking at a number of its policies and programmes. Before the regional drought experience, emphasis was on providing early warning on the food availability situation with the sole intention of triggering emergency responses to avoid starvation or famine. This was in line with the SADC food security definition and policy that prevailed then that emphasised on food availability. See Annex I for the new food security definition according to the 1997 SADC Food Security Strategy Framework.
7.2 Re-definition of Food Security
As a result, the definition and policy of food security in the SADC has since broadened and now emphasises on access to food and the promotion of policies and programmes that generate long term employment opportunities, rural/agricultural growth and economic development. This is out of a realisation that short term emergency responses are not enough and tended to draw on resources ear-marked for long term development and interfered with local input and produce markets as well as production and consumption patterns.
7.3 Food Security As Organising Principle/Formation of the FANRDU
To reinforce the above definition, the SADC Council of Ministers transformed the Food Security Sector in August 1999, to a Development Unit with responsibilities over a reconstituted Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources cluster of sectors. Thus food security ceases to be a sector in SADC. It becomes a policy objective and organising principle that cuts across many sectors and around which the
reconstituted cluster of FANR sectors will be anchored and developed. See Annex II for more details on the FANRDU.
The importance of water development as part of an integrated strategy to tackle regional economic development and food security has been re-emphasised recently in the SADC. The SADC Council of Ministers in August 1999 approved that water be constituted into a sector that stands independent of the Environment and Land Management Sector, its former home. The Water Sector was also removed from the Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources cluster of sectors for strategic planning reasons and to give it due prominence. All water related programmes, especially those on irrigation, can now directly access and benefit from services of the Water Sector. This is viewed in SADC as an important step towards long term drought management and mitigation.
7.5 The SADC Food Security and Rural Development Hub and Spokes
Since the founding of SADCC in 1980, SADC has had no standby resource facility that provides for mobilisation of human and financial resources for implementing regional policies and programmes for long term food security and rural development. This proved to be a missing link been development proposals and implementation. In August 1999 the Council of Ministers approved the SADC Food Security And Rural Development Hub and Spokes to be based in Harare. It is supposed to operate by January 2000. It has been already presented to donors and managed to raise significant financial resources. The facility will buttress long term drought management strategies in the SADC especially in the area of policy research and building analytical capacity through the implementation of the proposed Policy Analysis Network.
7.6 SADC Regional Drought Management Strategy
As part of this new thrust, the SADC region is currently working on a Regional Drought Management Strategy through the Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources Development Unit(FANRDU), formerly the FSTAU. The Strategy builds upon achievements made so far and provides additional input where necessary to effectively address constraints being experienced as well as opportunities that national strategies can exploit. The main objective is to establish a multi-pronged drought management tool that will reduce long term vulnerability to drought-induced food insecurity. The involvement of multi- sectoral stakeholders and players is the cornerstone of the Strategy. The main elements and activities of the Strategy as presented by the consultants is in Annex Ill(a). Priorities as contributed through the Regional Consultative Workshop on the Strategy are given Annex III(b). The final Strategy document will incorporate both components.
7.8 Revisiting The Regional Early Warning System
The Regional Early Warning System is currently being relooked at with a view of being improved and strengthened in terms of its methodology and food basket composition. Investments to improve timeliness of delivery of early warning information are required. The packaging of early warning information requires refinement, taking a more holistic disaster management approach and the neede to generate location specific climate forecast data. The Remote Sensing component is opening new ground in the area of agricultural potential information systems, a recent proposal still soliciting for funding.
7.9 Improving Early Warning Coordination
Other early warning systems such as FEWS, SCF Risk Mapping and the Sadc Environmental Technical Unit have since been housed at the FANRDU headquarters for coordination as well as technical enrichment purposes. At national levels efforts are on-going to strengthen cooperation and strategic alliances between NEWUs and other national and non-government early warning players.
7.10 On-going Programmes
As already indicated a variety of projects and programmes aimed at addressing food security in the areas of information generation and dissemination, training, nutrition, and smallscale seed production are under implementation directly under the FANRDU(See Annex IV) while others are under the following sectors:
- Livestock Production and Animal Disease Control - Forestry
- Wildlife
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- Marine Fisheries - Inland Fisheries
- Agric. Research and Training - Crop Sector
These form the reconstituted cluster of Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources programme considered in SADC as an integraated management strategy to address food insecurity constraints such as drought.
8. Conclusion
The above developments indicate the high priority accorded to drought management as approached within the integrated framework of food security. The next step is the consolidation of existing
programmes as well as development and implementation of the new initiatives by the relevant players and sectors. The Water Sector has already designed a number of water development proposals, some of which have already been approved by SADC. The FANRDU will be following up on the Regional Drought Management Strategy.
The new economic environment has created new challenges and opportunities. Special requirements for information generation/exchange and policy analysis at various fronts(about markets and
technologies, etc., for policy makers, private sector and donor community) have arisen especially at the regional level. At the regional level, NGOs and CBOs should seek
complementarity with regional bodies and SADC member states in generating and analysing information in order to promote better regional food security policies, priorities and programmes.
The FANRDU envisions participation-facilitation and collaboration amongst the regional and national institutions. At the same time the reality of dwindling international aid and investment resources;
increasing threat of climatic variability and food shortages; declining incomes and increasing unemployment; increased competition for resources, the multiplicity of NGOs especially at national levels, demands for effecient and effective use of available resources.
Annex I
FOOD SECURITY AS A CONCEPT AND ORGANISING PRINCIPLE 1. Introduction
Against the background of high population growth rates, generally slow economic growth and development, coupled with some rapid economic and political changes, the challenge that Southern Africa faces is to ensure food security for all its citizens as a sine aua non for human security.
The move towards more market-oriented economies in many countries of the region pose a number of new challenges. In the food security sector, this opening up means that the States have to find new ways of meeting their goals of food security in an environment of undeveloped markets. At the same time, changes in international trade rules means that the world at large is likely to have an increasing impact on the well being of the region’s poor and vulnerable.
The debate on how to improve food security and social welfare continues to focus on how to provide the appropriate policy milieu within which households as economic units, can make the best decisions for their own enterprises. Clearly, there is a role for intervention at times of short term distress.
Equally, there is a longer term role for the state in providing public goods, such as improvements in transport and communication, health, and education, that promote general economic development.
Governments and policy makers are still unclear on the best ways of meeting this challenge. What does seem to be emerging, however, is an acceptance of the need to rely on small-scale enterprises and development organisations, while maintaining a facilitative policy environment at the national level.
This Annex paper briefly looks at the conceptualisation of food security in search of a paradigm that leads to a comprehensive analysis. In going through this Annex, one has to be mindful that the concept of food security in SADC is looked at from the perspective of all of the following; an individual, household, community, district/provincial, national, regional and finally global levels. In order to remain pertinent , one has to distinguish all the time the level he/she is referring to. The macro-economic
policies set by governments, regional groupings and international trade organisations impact
differently at all these levels and ultimately determine the food security situation at the household level.
2. The SADC Food Security Concept
The concept and practice of food security has evolved gradually over the years, not only in the SADC region, but throughout the world from an initial emphasis on national food self-sufficiency to food access at the household level. Food security now encompasses issues that range from food production to non-agricultural issues.
The conceptual framework of food security now seeks to ensure that food is available and accessible to each individual in sufficient quantities to guarantee him/her a nutritious diet and good health. The World Bank(l986) defined food security as access by all people at all times to enough food for an active, healthy life. The concept was adapted in the SADC as Aensuring that all members of a household, nation or the region have access to an adequate diet to lead a healthy, active and normal life.
The ultimate goal for a country under this concept is therefore to guarantee a good nutritional condition for each national. The following figure depicts diagrammatically the definition of food security in the SADC.
The SA DC Conceptual Frame work
FOOD SECURITY I
Food Availability + Access and Acquisition + Food Use (Macro) (Household) (Individual)
I I I
Production, Trade, Food Aid ---r Incomes <--- I ---> Nutrition I I I Resources I
1 1 ( ---_--- > 1 1 1
--_-- Employment IFoodAgriculturel Other Sectors I
&Natural Resources +
I- - - - - - - - - - - Processing and Distribution - - - _ - - - - - - - - - I +
I_ _____________ EducationandTraining---I 3. An Elaboration of the Food Security Concept
The main categories constituting the definition of food security in the definition are food availability, access/acquisition and food use. Some of the salient issues underlying them are as below.
3.1 Food Availability
Three aspects encompassed are food production, food trade/markets and food aid. Under these aspects, an endless list of policy issues is implied. These encompass the prime movers of agricultural development, including issues such as land reform/agrarian reform.
3.1 .l Food Production
The food production process involves three factors of production; land, labour and capital. These also imply a host of policy and institutional issues under these broad and general classifications;
Land-based eg. land reform, soil conservation and management, agro-ecological and climatic factors, etc.; Labour-based eg. agricultural education, training, extension, research, health and skills imparting;
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