Food securisation in Sub
Saharan Africa
Mini-symposium E 19 august 17h30- 19h Room 305 C
People, land and food
in sub saharan Africa
Michel BENOIT-CATTIN
Bruno DORIN
CIRAD Montpellier FRANCE
The problem
On average, for Sub Saharan Africa :
Food availability remains the lowest in the world <
2300 kcal/inhab/day
This availability relies more and more on imports
What are the evidences from the past?
(43 years)
Methodology
Food/inhabitant= Production/inhab + (M-X)/inhabitant - losses
Production/inhabitant = Food/Ha x Ha/worker x worker/inhabitant
Food/worker = Food/Ha x Ha/worker
Partial productivities as in Ruttan, Bairoch and Malassis
Food and production and M and X expressed in Kcal/day
Data = FAO Stat 1961-2003 + Improvements / 38 countries
Graphical presentation and
Methodology
Food/inhabitant= Production/inhab + (M-X)/inhabitant - losses
Production/inhabitant = Food/Ha x Ha/worker x worker/inhabitant
Food/worker = Food/Ha x Ha/worker
Partial productivities as in Ruttan, Bairoch and Malassis
Food and production and M and X expressed in Kcal/day
Data = FAO Stat 1961-2003
Graphical presentation and
comparisons betweenclusters of countries
Methodology
Food/inhabitant= Production/inhab+ (M-X)/inhabitant - losses
Production/inhabitant = Food/Ha x Ha/worker x worker/inhabitant
Food/worker = Food/Ha x Ha/worker
Partial productivities as in Ruttan, Bairoch and Malassis
Food and production and M and X expressed in Kcal/day
Data = FAO Stat 1961-2003
Graphical presentation and
Methodology
Food/inhabitant= Production/inhab + (M-X)/inhabitant - losses
Production/inhabitant=Food/Ha x Ha/workerx worker/inhabitant
Food/worker = Food/Ha x Ha/worker
Partial productivities as in Ruttan, Bairoch and Malassis
Food and production and M and X expressed in Kcal/day
Data = FAO Stat 1961-2003
Graphical presentation and
comparisons betweenclusters of countries
Methodology
Food/inhabitant= Production/inhab + (M-X)/inhabitant - losses
Production/inhabitant = Food/Ha x Ha/worker x worker/inhabitant
Food/worker = Food/Ha x Ha/worker
Partial productivities as in Ruttan, Bairoch and Malassis
Food and production and M and X expressed in Kcal/day
Data = FAO Stat 1961-2003
Graphical presentation and
Methodology
Food/inhabitant= Production/inhab + (M-X)/inhabitant - losses
Production/inhabitant = Food/Ha x Ha/worker x worker/inhabitant
Food/worker = Food/Ha x Ha/worker
Partial productivities as in Ruttan, Bairoch and Malassis
Food and production and M and X expressed in Kcal/day
Data = FAO Stat 1961-2003
First, Graphical presentation of time series for these ratios for SSA
Then, comparisons between clusters of countries identified on maps.
The trade dependency
Food/inhabitant= Production/inhab + (M-X)/inhabitant - losses
y = 3210.6e -0.0047x R 2 = 0.5219 y = 2186.2e0.0011x R2 = 0.4508 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000
The SSA food challenge
People
Land
food
Sustained Population growth
The SSA food challenge
y = 217724e0.0278x 0 100 000 200 000 300 000 400 000 500 000 600 000 700 000 800 000 1961 1963 1965 1967 196 9 197 1 197 3 197 5 197 7 197 9 198 1 1983 198 5 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 199 7 199 9 200 1 200 3 1 000 p e rso n s Total population People
+2.76%
With more and more people in agriculture
The SSA food challenge
y = 217724e0.0278x y = 86170e0.0187x 0 100 000 200 000 300 000 400 000 500 000 600 000 700 000 800 000 1961 1963 1965 1967 196 9 197 1 197 3 197 5 197 7 197 9 198 1 1983 198 5 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 199 7 199 9 200 1 200 3 1 000 p e rso n s
Total population Active in agriculture
Pe ople
People active in agriculture
+2.76%
+1.57%
Relatively limiting land
The SSA food challenge
y = 217724e0.0278x y = 142304e0.0075x y = 86170e0.0187x 0 100 000 200 000 300 000 400 000 500 000 600 000 700 000 800 000 1961 1963 1965 1967 196 9 197 1 197 3 197 5 197 7 197 9 198 1 1983 198 5 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 199 7 199 9 200 1 200 3 1 0 0 0 pe rs ons or H a
Total population Active in agriculture Cultivated area
Pe ople
A linear yield increase
The Malthusian SSA food challenge
y = 217724e0.0278x y = 86170e0.0187x R2 = 0.9249 0 100 000 200 000 300 000 400 000 500 000 600 000 700 000 800 000 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 10 00 p e rso n s o r Ha 0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 Y iel d i n KCal /Ha/ d a y
Total population Active in agriculture Yield
People Food per Ha
People active in agriculture
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 196 1 196 3 1965 196 7 1969 197 1 197 3 197 5 197 7 1979 198 1 1983 198 5 198 7 1989 199 1 1993 199 5 1997 199 9 200 1 2003 K C a l/D a y 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 x Ha or Inhab
Land Productivity Production per inhabitant Area cult per active habitan per active
Weak food performances
Partial Food productivities
Production/worker = Food/HaFood/Hax Ha/Ha/workerworker0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 1961 196 3 196 5 1967 1969 1971 197 3 197 5 1977 1979 1981 1983 198 5 198 7 1989 1991 1993 1995 199 7 199 9 2001 2003 KCal /D ay 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 x Ha or Inhab
Land Productivity Labour productivity Area cult per active
Partial Food productivities
Production/worker = Food/Ha x Ha/Ha/workerworkerProductivity path of SSA
2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 0.5 1 1.5 2 Ha/w orker KCa l/ Ha /D a y 2500 Kcal/Worker 5000 Kcal/Worker 10000 Kcal/Worker 20000 Kcal/Worker Y X
Comparing with Asia
Productivity paths for SSA and Asia
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2 Ha/w orker KCa l/ H a /Da y 2500 Kcal/Worker 5000 Kcal/Worker 20000 Kcal/Worker 10000 Kcal/Worker 40000 Kcal/Worker
For the whole Sub Saharan Africa
Weak food performances
Limited gains in productivities
From net exporter to net importer of food
(Kcal)
BUT Africa is so diverse
Small, big and medium countries
From desert to equatorial forest
From very low human densities to high
From hand cultivation to mechanized
Annual and perennial crops
Food crops and cash crops
We will compare countrie’s performances with the
global trends and present clusters of trajectories
A general demographic boom
For the period, (43
years) with an average
rate of 2,8% total
population has been
multiplied by 3.1
A
group of countries
follows this average
trend
,
another is below
(x 2.5),
another is over
(x3.6) and
Ivory Cost
is
More people to be nourished by agr worker
Inhabitants per ag worker
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 196 1 196 2 196319641965196619671968196 9 197 0 197119721973197419751976197 7 197819791980198119821983198 4 198 5 198619871988198919901991199 2 199 3 19941995199619971998199 9 200 0 200120022003
More people to be nourished by agr worker
Inhabitants per ag worker
5 10 15 20 25 30
More people to be nourished by agr worker
Inhabitants per ag worker
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 196119621963196419651966196719681969197019711972197319741975197619771978197 9 1980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199 3 1994199519961997199819992000200120022003
Limited per capita Food availability
Per ca pita da ily fo od a vailab ility1800 2000 2200 2400 2600 2800 3000 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 K C a l/I n h ab /D ay
Limited Food availability
Per capita daily food availability1800 2000 2200 2400 2600 2800 3000 1961 1963 196 5 1967 1969 197 1 1973 1975 1977 1979 198 1 1983 1985 198 7 1989 1991 1993 1995 199 7 1999 2001 200 3 K C a l/I n h ab /D ay Trade dependency -2500 -2000 -1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 197 5 1977 1979 1981 1983 198 5 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Ne t E x p o rt e d KC a l/ D a y /I n h a b
Trade dependency -2500 -2000 -1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 1961 19631965 1967 1969 19711973 19751977 19791981 1983198519871989199119931995 19971999 20012003 N e t E x por te d KC a l/ D a y /I nha b
Increasing trade dependency
Productivity paths
Productivity paths in SSA
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 Ha/w orker KC a l/ H a/ Da y 2500 Kcal/Worker 5000 Kcal/Worker 10000 Kcal/Worker 20000 Kcal/Worker 40000 Kcal/Worker
Productivities
Productivity paths in SSA
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 Ha/w orker K C al /H a/ D a y 2500 Kcal/Worker 5000 Kcal/Worker 10000 Kcal/Worker 20000 Kcal/Worker
Productivity paths in SSA w ith RSA
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00 K C al /H a/ D a y 2500 Kcal/Worker 5000 Kcal/Worker 10000 Kcal/Worker 20000 Kcal/Worker 40000 Kcal/Worker 80000 Kcal/Worker 160000 Kcal/Worker
