Implementation and scope

The project was completed over three years (2003–2006). Most of the research activities and analyses were conducted by experts from the Centre for Information Management and Energy Development (CUBAENERGÍA) in cooperation with other relevant Cuban organizations. Experts from CUBAENERGÍA were in charge of processing the statistics, implementing simulations for the energy system and providing the technical support necessary to build the country profile.

An ad hoc expert committee coordinated the overall effort. The committee consisted of members from Cuban energy, environmental and economic organi-zations and from international organiorgani-zations. The Cuban experts were drawn from CUBAENERGÍA, the Ministry of Economy and Planning (MEP), the Ministry of Science, Technology and Environment (CITMA), the Agency for Nuclear Energy and Advanced Technologies, the Ministry of Basic Industry (MINBAS), the National Electric Union (UNE), Cubapetroleo S.A. (CUPET), the National Statistics Office, the Ministry of Transportation (MITRANS), the Ministry of Foreign Investment and Economic Cooperation, the National Institute of Hydraulic Resources, the Ministry of Sugar Industry (MINAZ), the National Institute of Economic Research, the Centre of Management of Prioritized Projects and Programmes and the Transport Research Institute (CETRA). The international experts were from the IAEA, UNDESA, UNDP-Cuba, the Organización Latinoamericana de Energía and the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean. The expert committee provided guidance for the final analysis and participated in the formulation of the approach followed in this study. The assumptions underlying this study as well as the recommendations, however, are the responsibility of the participating Cuban institutions and experts.

1.4.2. Road map

The study considers available data from the past 24 years in formulating the corresponding EISD for Cuba. Although data availability was a problem in some of the energy priority areas, valuable assessments of historic trends were performed. The effort includes an extensive energy supply and demand modelling investigation conducted with two IAEA simulation tools — MESSAGE (model for energy supply strategy alternatives and their general environmental impacts) and MAED (model for analysis of energy demand).

Alternative paths have been developed for the period ending 2025.

To allow a better understanding of sustainable energy development, a complete review of the energy supply and demand situation in Cuba is presented. This approach not only provides a detailed overview of the energy system, but also allows quantification of the share of energy supply that may be considered socially and environmentally friendly. Such analysis reveals that, independent of the significant contribution from renewable energy sources, the country still relies on large amounts of fossil energy. Energy programmes implemented in the past several years have already demonstrated positive results in the increase in domestic fossil fuel exploration and production. A main objective is to try to satisfy energy requirements with an optimal balance of domestic renewable and fossil fuel resources, keeping energy imports at a minimum level. Increasing energy efficiency and reducing environmental impacts are also major priorities for Cuban policy makers.

The principal outcome of this extensive investigation of the energy sector is a better understanding of the energy system and of the sustainability features of different energy strategies, their benefits and shortcomings, and trade-offs, including the identification of ways to increase the share of renewable sources of energy in an economically feasible way.

This report presents a comprehensive appraisal of sustainable energy issues in Cuba’s past, present and future. The assessment starts with a retro-spective analysis of the Cuban energy sector and its implications for sustainable development. Past energy use and time series indicators as well as the social, economic, environmental and institutional dimensions of sustainable development are reviewed and priority issues for securing a sustainable energy future are identified in Section 2. The starting point for developing a national sustainable energy strategy is to take stock of the national energy resource endowment (Section 3). Cuba’s conventional and unconventional energy reserves and resources are assessed, including oil, hydropower, biomass, agricultural residues and other renewable energy resources, as well as traditional versus modern applications of bioenergy and the potential use of fuelwood, charcoal and agricultural residues. Cuba has developed or adapted innovative and appropriate technologies that support sustainable energy strategies. These technologies are analysed in detail in Section 4.

Cuba’s choices for promoting economic development have shaped its energy use in notable ways. This is demonstrated by the analysis of past energy use and its driving forces, such as changes in energy intensities, demographic factors and economic activity (Section 5). It is necessary to draw lessons from the past concerning the environmental impacts of energy production and use and apply them to guide strategies for the future. Environmental impacts are reviewed in Section 6. Particular attention is given to practices of the past related to unsustainable biomass use and deforestation. Emissions from energy

systems are discussed in detail. Strategies are formulated to reduce negative environmental effects produced by energy systems.

Social and energy security concerns place additional demands on sustainable energy development. First, energy plays an important role in poverty eradication by allowing improvements in education, employment, health and sanitation (Section 7). Therefore, current problems of affordability, accessibility and disparity in energy use need to be alleviated through the adoption of appropriate strategies. Second, energy security risks in Cuba with respect to changes in the national and international markets for primary energy sources (strategic and economic security) and vulnerability to accidents, disruptions and attacks (physical security) need to be addressed (Section 8).

Currently, security risks in Cuba are related to energy resources (limited domestic energy resources), economic factors (the lack of sufficient financial resources) and strategic factors (limited trade resulting from the economic blockade).

The value of the above ‘lessons learned’ from the past and the success of strategies formulated for the future crucially depend on the policies and measures available to decision makers and the effectiveness of their implemen-tation. Therefore, major energy policies adopted by Cuba to increase domestic natural gas and oil use, improve energy efficiency and increase the use of renewable energy sources are reviewed in this report. Policy options are identified in major priority areas for Cuba, including fuel conservation and substitution, energy efficiency, financing, electricity conservation, renewables use, technology transfer, and international trade and cooperation (Section 9).

The main objective of the project is to assess possible paths towards sustainable energy development for Cuba. Drawing on the lessons learned from the evaluation of the relationships among socioeconomic development, energy use and environmental implications, a scenario analysis was conducted (Section 10). Building on the material presented in Sections 2–9, the future is explored by developing and using scenarios in two main steps and by producing two types of output. In the first step, an overall socioeconomic scenario is constructed on the basis of recent dynamics, existing assets (installed physical capital, available human capital), and generally agreed objectives and directions for medium term (15–20 years) strategic development. In the second step, energy modelling, the energy demand associated with the macrolevel scenario is calculated using MAED and other tools. Several options to satisfy the energy requirements are then explored using MESSAGE, resulting in several variants of energy strategies under the same socioeconomic scenario.

The main results of the study are summarized in Section 11. Special emphasis is given to the policy insights concerning national efforts to foster progress towards sustainable energy development.

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