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FiRECAM<TM> Fire Cost Expectation Model (FCED)
Ser
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National Research Conseil national no. 722'
Council Canada de recherches Canadac. 2 I BLDG
IWC-CHC
FIRECAMTM
Fire Cost
Expectation Model
(FCED)
c I s T I / I c I s TNRc/cNRc
I R C Ser
R e c e i v e d o n : 04-08-97
I n t e r n a l r e p o r t .
by G.V. Hadjisophocleous and B.L. Yager
Internal Report No. 722
Date of Issue: November 1996
L n t e r n a l r e p o r t ( I n s t i t u t e f
ABSTRACT
This report describes the Fire Cost Expectation Model of the NFL risk-cost assessment model, FiRECAMTM. The Fire Cost Expectation Model uses the output of both the Economic Model and the Property Loss Model to generate a value for the cost of fire damage and the cost of fire-related systems, normalized by the cost of the building and its contents.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1
.
INTRODUCTION...
1 2.
FIRE COST EXPECTATION MODEL SUMMARY SHEET...
2...
3
.
DESCRIPTION OF MODEL 23.1 Calculation of Total Annual Property Loss ... 2
...
3.2 Calculation of Fire Cost Expectation 4
4
.
MODEL INPUTS...
4 4.1 Building Layout...
4.
. ...
4.2 Capital Cost of Building 4
...
4.3 Capital Cost of Contents 5
...
4.4 Capital Cost of Fire Protection Systems 5
...
4.5 Annual Cost for Fire Protection Systems
. .
5...
4.6 Probabilxty of Scenario Occurrence 5
4.7 Value of Probable Property Losses for Each Scenario
...
6 5.
MODEL OUTPUTS...
6 6.
REFERENCES...
7FiRECAMTM Fire Cost Expectation Model (FCED)
G. V. Hadjisophocleous and B. L. Yager 1. INTRODUCTION
The Fire Cost Expectation Model generates a value for the cost of fire damage, the capital cost of fire-related systems, and the annual costs of fire related systems, normalized by the cost of the building and contents alone. The model uses the results of the Economic Model [I] and the Property Loss Model [2] to generate this Fire Cost Expectation. This value can be used to evaluate the cost effectiveness of different fire protection system designs and building designs on an equal basis.
In this report, a number of terms, listed below, are used in a context slightly different than the definitions given in the National Building Code of Canada [3] (NBCC) and the National Fire Code of Canada [4].
Compartment is used to define an enclosed space which contains combustible materials and has
well defined boundaries and openings for ventilation and smoke spread. A compartment in this submodel does not necessarily have fire-rated boundaries, as is defined in the NBCC [3].
Floor assembly is used to define the construction comprising the lower surface of a compartment, which may or may not be fire-rated.
Floor in the context of this submodel means a storey as defined in the NBCC [3], i.e. that portion of a building which is situated between the top surface of a floor assembly and the top surface of the floor assembly next above it, and if there is no floor above it, that portion between the top surface of such a floor assembly and the top surface of the ceiling above it.
Floor area in this submodel is the greatest horizontal area on any one floor within the outside surfaces of the exterior walls.
2. FIRE COST EXPECTATION MODEL SUMMARY SHEET
Table 1: FiRECAMTM Model Summary Sheet for Residential and Ofice Buildings
probability of occurrence of that scenario, and summing for all scenarios expected over the life of the building, a probable cost of damage due to fire is calculated. This value is added to the capital cost of fire protection systems
-- Capital cost of contents
Capital cost of fire protection systems Annual cost for fire protection systems
Probability of occurrence for each fire scenario on each floor
Value of probable property losses for occurrence of each fire scenario on each
3. DESCRIPTION OF MODEL
3.1 Calculation of Total Annual Property Loss
The total annual cost of property loss from fire is calculated and used to compute the Fire Cost Expectation. The total annual property loss is the probable cost of fire, quoted on an annual basis, for all fires that may occur in the building.
The annual probability that a fire scenario will occur on a given floor is calculated for each of the possible floors of fire origin (FireFloor). It is calculated using the following equation:
where
Pfi, ,,(FireFloor) is the probability that a fire will start on a given floor in a period of one year.
Ptiretrpe is the probability that fire will be of one of the types listed in Table 2
Start Calculate Total Annual Property Loss
Loop current scenario through each scenario
Loop Fire Floor through each floor
Determine Firelype and Door Status
Loss(scenari0) =
Sum [cost(scenario. F're Floor) ' P,,",,>,,F,,,F,,,l
r
Total Annual Property Loss Sum,,,,~,[Loss(scenario)]
1
through all End Calculate Total Annua scenarios? Property Loss
Figure 1: Total Annual Property Loss Calculation
For each fire scenario, the total annual loss in the building, Loss(scenario), is calculated by summing over each floor the annual loss due to the occurrence of the fire scenario on that floor:
where
cost(scenario,FireFloor) is the value of probable property loss for the scenario starting on floor, FireFloor, as input from the Property Loss Model [2] This Loss(scenario) is summed over each scenario to obtain the Total Annual Property Loss.
Total Annual Property Loss = Loss(scenario)
scenario
( 3 ) The method for this calculation is illustrated in Figure 1.
3.2 Calculation of Fire Cost Expectation
The Fire Cost Expectation computed by this model is defined as the sum of the present worth of the expected annual losses for fires in the building, the present worth of the annual maintenance and inspection costs, and the capital costs of all passive and active fire protection systems, all divided by the total building costs. It is computed using:
P.V.moal Annual Propnry Loss] +P.V.[Annual Cost of fue Protection System] + Capital Cost dFm P r o t d 0 n System ( 4 )
F.C.E.=
Capital Cost of Building & ConmtE
Where:
P.V. denotes the function for finding a present value of an annual cost
The annual and capital costs of fire protection systems, as well as the capital costs of the building and contents are input from the Economic Model [I].
The Fire Cost expectation is one of two performance parameters computed by FiRECAMTM that allow comparison of various building designs. The other parameter is the expected risk to life. The two parameters can assist in the selection of cost effective safe designs.
4. MODEL INPUTS
This section describes the inputs required for this model.
4.1 Building Layout
Occupancy type (Office or Apartment) Number of floors
Floor area of each floor Number of compartments
4.2
Capital Cost of BuildingThe value of the building is computed by the Economic Model [I]. The Economic Model estimates these costs by considering the cost of the following building components:
Cost of interior separations
Cost of columns Cost of elevators Cost of exterior walls
Cost of stairwells and stairshafts Cost of ducts and chutes
Cost of balconies
Cost of doors and windows 4.3 Capital Cost of Contents
The value of the contents (furniture, equipment, personal belongings, etc.) is input through the expert database. This value is entered in three forms:
Value of contents in the compartment of origin
Value of contents on the floor excludi~g the compartment of fire origin Value of contents on entire floor ($/m )
With these three values and the layout of the building, the value of the contents for the entire building is computed.
4.4 Capital Cost of Fire Protection Systems
The value for the capital cost of fire protection systems is input from the Economic Model [I]. This value includes the following capital costs:
Passive fire protection system capital costs Detection and alarm system capital costs Automatic suppression system capital costs Manual suppression system capital costs Smoke control system capital costs
Emergency and organizational system capital costs
A complete explanation of these systems is available in the report on the Economic Model [I]. 4.5 Annual Cost for Fire Protection Systems
The annual cost for fire protection systems includes the recurring costs pertaining to the fire protection systems installed in the specified building design. These include:
Maintenance costs of active protection system components Cost of detection and supervision services
Cost of fire protection system replacements
a Cost of training for system operation and evacuation
4.6
Probability of Scenario Occurrence6
Table 2: Fire Scenarios
These probabilities can be broken down into the following three parts: Fire Type
Smoldering Fire
Flaming Fire (no flashover) Flashover Fire
Probability of fire start, Pfire ,,,,(floor) Probability of fire type, Pfiretype Probability of door state, Pdoor state
Compartment Door State Compartment door open Compartment door closed Compartment door open Compartment door closed Compartment door open Compartment door closed
4.7 Value of Probable Property Losses for Each Scenario
For each of the scenarios listed in the previous subsection, on each of the possible fire floors, a dollar value for the probable loss is calculated by the Property Loss Model 121. This cost is the expected value of damaged building and contents due to a fire as a result of one of the six scenarios starting on the selected floor.
5. MODEL OUTPUTS
The main output produced by this model is the value of the Fire Cost Expectation. The costs used to calculate it are also included. These values are quoted for the entire building at the time of building construction. The values are sent to the output reporting facility of
FiRECAMTM and appear as shown in the figure below.
6. REFERENCES
1. Hadjisophocleous, G.V. and Yager, B.L., 1996, FiRECAWM Economic Model (ECMD), IRC Internal Report No. 723, Institute for Research in Construction, National Research Council of Canada, Ottawa, Ontario.
2. Hadjisophocleous, G.V. and Yager B.L., 1996, FiRECAMTM Property Loss Model (PLMD), IRC Internal Report No. 721, Institute for Research in Construction, National Research Council of Canada, Ottawa, Ontario.
3. National Building Code of Canada 1995, Canadian Commission on Building and Fire Codes, National Research Council of Canada, NRCC No. 38726, Ottawa, Ontario.
4. National Fire Code of Canada 1995, Canadian Commission on Building and Fire Codes, National Research Council of Canada, NRCC No. 38727, Ottawa, Ontario.
