Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050 | IAEA

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TA SERIES No. 1

Energy, Electricity and

Nuclear Power Estimates

for the Period up to 2050

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FOR THE PERIOD UP TO 2050

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ENERGY, ELECTRICITY AND NUCLEAR POWER ESTIMATES

FOR THE PERIOD UP TO 2050

2019 Edition

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FOR THE PERIOD UP TO 2050 IAEA-RDS-1/39

ISBN 978-92-0-109319-6 ISSN 1011-2642

Printed by the IAEA in Austria August 2019 Cover photo credit:

China National Nuclear Corporation / 2018

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INTRODUCTION . . . 1

WORLD . . . 5

Nuclear Power Development around the World in 2018 . . . 7

Final Energy Consumption in 2018 . . . 13

Electricity Production . . . 14

Energy and Electricity Projections . . . 16

Nuclear Electrical Generating Capacity Projections . . . 18

Reactor Retirements and Additions . . . 20

Electricity and Nuclear Production Projections . . . 22

NORTHERN AMERICA . . . 27

Electricity Production in 2018 . . . 29

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN. . . 39

NORTHERN, WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EUROPE . . . 51

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AFRICA . . . 75

Per Capita Energy and Electricity . . . 80

WESTERN ASIA . . . 87

SOUTHERN ASIA. . . 97

CENTRAL AND EASTERN ASIA. . . 109

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OCEANIA. . . 129

REGIONAL POPULATION DATA . . . 137

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Reference Data Series No. 1 (RDS-1) is an annual publication — currently in its thirty-ninth edition — containing estimates of energy, electricity and nuclear power trends up to the year 2050.

RDS-1 starts with a summary of the status of nuclear power in IAEA Member States as of the end of 2018 based on the latest statistical data collected by the IAEA’s Power Reactor Information System (PRIS). It then presents estimates of energy and electricity up to 2050 derived from various international studies, including the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2018 and the United States Energy Information Administration’s International Energy Outlook 2018. The energy and electricity data for 2018 are estimated, as the latest information available from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs is for 2016. Population data originate from World Population Prospects 2019, published by the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. The 2018 values again are estimates.

As in previous editions of RDS-1, projections of nuclear power are presented as low and high estimates encompassing the uncertainties inherent in projecting trends. The projections are based on a critical review of (i) the global and regional energy, electricity and nuclear power projections made by other international organizations, (ii) national projections supplied by individual countries for a recent OECD Nuclear Energy Agency study and (iii) the estimates of the expert group participating in the IAEA’s yearly consultancy on nuclear capacity projections.

The estimates of future nuclear electrical generating capacity presented in Table 5 are derived using a country by country

‘bottom up’ approach. In deriving these estimates, a group of experts considers all the operating reactors, possible licence renewals, planned shutdowns and plausible construction

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The low and high estimates reflect contrasting, but not extreme, underlying assumptions on the different driving factors that have an impact on nuclear power deployment. These factors, and the ways they might evolve, vary from country to country.

The estimates presented provide a plausible range of nuclear capacity growth by region and worldwide. They are not intended to be predictive nor to reflect the whole range of possible futures from the lowest to the highest feasible.

The low case represents expectations about the future assuming that current market, technology and resource trends continue and there are few additional changes in explicit laws, policies and regulations affecting nuclear power. This case was explicitly designed to produce a ‘conservative but plausible’ set of projections. Additionally, the low case does not assume that targets for nuclear power in a particular country will necessarily be achieved. These assumptions are relaxed in the high case.

The high case projections are much more ambitious, but are still plausible and technically feasible. The high and low cases assume the same outlook of economic and electricity demand growth based on current expectations. Country policies toward climate change are also considered in the high case.

Over the short term, the low price of natural gas and the impact of subsidized intermittent renewable energy sources on electricity prices are expected to continue to affect nuclear growth prospects in some regions of the world. Moreover, natural gas has become more competitive owing to low prices and increased supply as a result of technological advances in gas extraction. In the near term, ongoing financial uncertainty and stagnant electricity demand in some regions will continue to present challenges for capital intensive projects such as nuclear power. Heightened safety requirements, challenges in deploying advanced technologies and other factors have increased construction times and costs, contributing to delays.

The expert group assumed that these challenges, in addition to the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, will

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in the developing world, as well as climate change and air quality concerns, security of energy supply and price volatility of other fuels, continue to point to nuclear generating capacity playing an important role in the energy mix in the longer run.

Compared with the 2018 projections to 2050, the 2019 projections are reduced by 33 gigawatt (electrical) (GW(e))¹ in the high case and increased by 15 GW(e) in the low case, narrowing the range. These changes reflect responses to the Fukushima Daiichi accident and other factors noted above.

There are fewer uncertainties in these projections owing to recent announcements regarding the future of the existing nuclear fleet in some regions and long term plans for expansion. Significant new nuclear capacity would be necessary to offset any potential retirements resulting from a variety of factors such as ageing fleets, economic difficulties, etc.

Interest in nuclear power remains strong in many regions, particularly in the developing world. Commitments agreed under the Paris Agreement and other initiatives have the potential to support nuclear energy development.

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The nuclear electrical generating capacity projections presented in RDS-1 are grouped according to the geographical regions used by the Statistics Division of the United Nations Secretariat, available on-line at unstats.un.org/unsd/methodology/m49/.

The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the IAEA concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

Notes

The data on electricity produced by nuclear power plants are converted to joules based on the average efficiency of a nuclear power plant (i.e. 33%); the data on electricity generated by geothermal heat are converted to joules based on the average efficiency of a geothermal power plant (i.e. 10%).

The conversion to joules of electricity generated from hydropower or from other non-thermal sources such as wind, tide and solar is based on the energy content of the electricity generated (the equivalent of assuming 100% efficiency).

Total final energy consumption refers to all fuel and energy delivered to users for their energy use and does not include non-energy use (i.e. deliveries of energy products for use as chemical feedstocks or as raw materials).

Owing to rounding, numbers presented throughout this publication may not add up precisely to the totals provided, and percentages may not precisely reflect the absolute figures.

Energy Units

1 MW(e) = 10⁶ watts (electrical)

1 GW(e) = 1000 MW(e) = 10⁹ watts (electrical) 1 GJ = 1 gigajoule = 10⁹ joules

1 EJ = 1 exajoule = 10¹⁸ joules

1 EJ = 23.9 megatonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) 1 TW·h = 1 terawatt-hour = 10⁹ kW·h = 3.6 × 10^–3 EJ

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World

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Nuclear Power Development around the World in 2018

● There were 450 operational nuclear power reactors in the world at the end of 2018, with a total net installed power capacity of 396 GW(e).

● An additional 55 units with a total capacity of 57 GW(e) were under construction.

● During 2018, nine new nuclear power reactors with a total capacity of 10 358 MW(e) were connected to the grid, and seven reactors with a total capacity of 5424 MW(e) were retired. In 2018, construction began on five new units that are expected to add a total capacity of 6339 MW(e).

● Electricity generation from operational nuclear reactors increased about 2.4% in 2018, reaching 2563 TW∙h.

● Nuclear power accounted for about 10% of total electricity production in 2018.

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Number of UnitsNet Capacity (MW(e))Number of UnitsNet Capacity (MW(e))TW·hPercent of Total

TABLE 1. NUCLEAR POWER REACTORS IN THE WORLD (end of 2018) CountryOperationalUnder ConstructionNuclear Electricity Production in 2018 Japan383647622 65349.34.6

Argentina31 6331 256.54.7 Armenia1 3751.925.6 22 160 Belgium Brazil75 918 11 34027.338.1 Bulgaria21 88414.82.7 Canada1913 55494.414.9 China46428581110982277.14.2 Czech Republic63 93228.334.5 Finland42 78411 60021.932.4 France5863 13011 630395.971.7 Germany79 51571.911.7 Hungary41 90214.950.6.1 India226 25574 82435.42.3

BBelelararususBangladesh 22 220 21 96615.434.7 Iran, Islamic Republic of19156.32.1

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, Republic of 242244456700127.122.3 ia21 30010.517.2 ration362725264573191.317.0 ia41 8142 88013.855.0 ia1 6885.535.9 ica21 86010.64.7 77 12153.420.4 88 61365.940.3 and53 33324.538.5 ne1513 10722 07079.553.0 mirates45 380 dom158 92359.118.5 States of America9899 06122 234808.019.3 otala45039641355566432 563.010.2 es the following data from Taiwan, China: 5 units in operation with a total capacity of 4448 MW(e), 2 units under construction with 26.7 TW·h of nuclear electricity generation, representing 10.2% of the total electricity produced.

o21 55213.24.4 rlands1 4823.33.1 n51 31822 0289.36.8

o21 552o21 552 11 114 11630

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FIGURE 1. WORLD NUCLEAR ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION IN 2018

Note: The nuclear electricity production in Taiwan, China, was 26.7 TW·h.

9.3 6.5 6.3 5.5 3.3 1.9 10.6 10.5 35.4 28.3 27.3 24.5 21.9 15.4 14.9 14.8 13.8 13.2

59.1 53.4 49.3 79.5 71.9 65.9

127.1 94.4

191.3 277.1

395.9

808.0

0 200 400 600 800 1000

Canada Ukraine Germany Sweden United Kingdom Spain Japan India Czech Republic Belgium Switzerland Finland Bulgaria Hungary Brazil Slovakia Mexico South Africa Romania Pakistan Argentina Iran, Islamic Republic of Slovenia Netherlands Armenia China Russian Federation Korea, Republic of

France United States of America

TW·h

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3.1 2.7 2.3 2.1 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.2

11.7 6.8

14.9 17.0 17.2 18.5

19.3 20.4

22.3 25.6

32.4 34.5 34.7 35.9

38.1 38.5 40.3

50.6 53.0

55.0 71.7

0 20 80 100

Spain United States of America

United Kingdom Romania Russian Federation

Canada Germany Pakistan Argentina South Africa Japan Mexico China Netherlands Brazil India Iran, Islamic Republic of Finland Armenia Korea, Republic of

Czech Republic Belgium Slovenia Bulgaria France Slovakia Ukraine Hungary Sweden Switzerland

40 60

FIGURE 2. SHARE OF NUCLEAR IN TOTAL ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION IN THE WORLD IN 2018

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Final Energy Consumption in 2018

Globally, electricity accounted for about 19% of the total final energy consumption in 2018. About 70% of the final energy consumption was in the form of fossil fuels. Bioenergy and waste accounted for 10%.

As electricity consumption is expected to increase faster than total final energy consumption in the coming years, the share of electricity consumption is expected to rise.

FIGURE 3. WORLD FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY ENERGY SOURCE IN 2018

Coal, Lignite and Peat Oil

Natural Gas

Bioenergy and Waste Electricity

Heat and Other 13%

40%

15%

10%

19%

3.4%

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Electricity Production

● Total electricity production grew by 3.9% in 2018, while the growth in nuclear electricity production was 2.4%.

● Among the various sources for electricity production, coal remained dominant despite the significant growth of renewable and natural gas based generation.

● The share of electricity production from natural gas remained at about 23% of total electricity production.

● The contribution of hydropower and renewable energy sources continued to increase significantly, reaching 25.8% in 2018, while the share of nuclear electricity production remained at about 10.2% of the total electricity production.

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Note: Estimates are expressed in gross figures. Gross electricity production is the total electrical energy produced by all generating units and installations, including pumped storage, measured at the output terminals of the generators.

FIGURE 4. BREAKDOWN OF WORLD TOTAL ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION BY ENERGY SOURCE DURING THE PERIOD 1971–2018

0 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000

1971 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2018

TW·h

Geothermal Solar Wind

Bioenergy and Waste Nuclear

Hydro Natural Gas Oil

Coal, Lignite and Peat

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Energy and Electricity Projections

● World energy consumption is expected to increase by 16% by 2030 and by 38% by 2050, at an annual growth rate of about 1%.

● Electricity consumption will grow at a higher rate of about 2.2% per year up to 2030 and around 2% per year thereafter.

● The share of electricity in total final energy consumption will thus increase from 18.8% in 2018 to 21% by 2030 and to 26% by the middle of the century.

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FIGURE 5. WORLD FINAL CONSUMPTION OF ENERGY AND ELECTRICITY

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

2018 2030 2040 2050

EJ

Electricity Energy

Energy (EJ) Electricity (EJ)

% of total 21.2

79.9 18.8

a Final consumption refers to all fuel and energy that is delivered to energy consumers.

127.0 23.9

152.7 104.0

26.1 TABLE 2. WORLD FINAL CONSUMPTION OF ENERGY AND ELECTRICITY

Final

Consumption 2018

424.2 490.2 531.2 585.1

2030 2040 2050

a

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Nuclear Electrical Generating Capacity Projections

● The world nuclear electrical generating capacity is projected to increase to 496 GW(e) by 2030 and to 715 GW(e) by 2050 in the high case. This represents a 25% increase over current levels by 2030 and an 80%

increase in capacity by 2050.

● In the low case, the world nuclear electrical generating capacity is projected to gradually decline until 2040 and then rebound to 371 GW(e) by 2050.

● The world total electrical generating capacity is expected to increase from 7188 GW(e) in 2018 to 9782 GW(e) by 2030 and to 13 633 GW(e) by 2050.

● The share of nuclear electrical generating capacity in the world total electrical capacity will be about 3% in the low case and about 5% in the high case by the middle of the century.

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FIGURE 6. WORLD NUCLEAR ELECTRICAL GENERATING CAPACITY

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Low High Low High Low High

2018 2030 2040 2050

GW(e)

Low High Low High Low High

366 496 353 628 371 715

Total (GW(e)) Nuclear (GW(e))

% of total 3.7 5.1 3.0 5.3 2.7 5.2

2050^a TABLE 3. WORLD TOTAL AND NUCLEAR ELECTRICAL GENERATING CAPACITY

Electrical Capacity

7 188

2018 2030^a 2040^a

9 782 11 811 13 633

396 5.5

a Nuclear capacity estimates take into account the scheduled retirement of older units at the end of their lifetime.

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Reactor Retirements and Additions

● More than half the existing nuclear power reactors are over 30 years old and are scheduled to be retired in the coming years.

● In the low case, about 117 GW(e) of nuclear electrical generating capacity will be retired and new reactors will add 85 GW(e) of capacity by 2030. Between 2030 and 2050, an additional 173 GW(e) will be retired and 179 GW(e) of new capacity will be added.

● In the high case, it is assumed that several of the nuclear power reactors scheduled for retirement will be given a life extension, so that only 49 GW(e) of nuclear electrical generating capacity will be retired by 2030, with an additional 137 GW(e) retired by 2050. In this case, the new reactors will add 148 GW(e) of nuclear electrical generating capacity by 2030 and about 356 GW(e) of capacity by 2050.

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LOW CASE HIGH CASE

FIGURE 7. WORLD NUCLEAR CAPACITY: ACTUAL, RETIREMENTS AND ADDITIONS

2018 Retirements Additions 2030 Retirements Additions 2050

GW(e)

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

8 ents tions 0 ents tions 0

GW(e)

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

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Electricity and Nuclear Production Projections

● The total nuclear electricity production in the world will continue to increase between now and 2050.

● In the high case, by 2030 nuclear electricity production will increase by 50% from the 2018 level of 2563 TW·h, and a further increase of 50% will occur over the next 20 years.

Altogether, a 2.2-fold increase over the present level is expected by 2050.

● In the low case, despite nuclear electrical generating capacity declining from the present level until 2040 and then rebounding, nuclear electricity production will increase by about 11% by 2030 and about 16% by 2050.

● The share of nuclear electricity in total electricity production in the world will decrease in the low case from about 10.2%

in 2018 to 8.5% in 2030 and 6.1% in 2050. However, in the high case, its share will increase to 11.5% in 2030 and to 11.7% in 2050.

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FIGURE 8. WORLD NUCLEAR ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION

0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000

2018 2030 2040 2050

TW·h

Low High Low High Low High Total (TW·h)

Nuclear (TW·h) 2 836 3844 2 804 4 977 2 990 5 761

% of total 8.5 11.5 6.8 12.1 6.1 11.7

2 563 10.2

a The nuclear production data presented in this table and the nuclear electrical generating capacity data presented in Table 3 cannot be used to calculate average annual capacity factors for nuclear plants as Table 3 presents year-end capacity.

TABLE 4. WORLD TOTAL AND NUCLEAR ELECTRICAL PRODUCTION^a Electricity

Production 2018 2030 2040 2050

25 196 33 538 41 101 49 032

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LowHighLowHighLowHigh Northern America112.6881116410940113 Latin America and the Caribbean5.168714919 Northern, Western and Southern Europe110.5759450884267 Eastern Europe51.3526852805579 Africa1.934311715 Western Asia0.48912191524 Southern Asia8.5192732475184 Central and Eastern Asia106.2115175132257149304 Oceania2 World Total396.4366496353628371715

TABLE 5. WORLD NUCLEAR ELECTRICAL GENERATING CAPACITY, GW(e) Region203020402050 2018 South-eastern Asia1338

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LowHighLowHighLowHigh n America 902.4699880510868324909 merica and the an 34.546625611274155 , Western hern Europe 728.7589740401707335538 n Europe 353.7408535420643442636 10.62332278360119 n Asia1.9597196146122190 n Asia51.0147210255376407680 and Eastern Asia 480.28651 3141 0312 0181 2022 453 ia 16 otal2 563.02 8363 8442 80449772 9905 761

6. WORLD NUCLEAR ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION, TW·h n2018203020402050 stern Asia 824 2465

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Northern America

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Final Energy Consumption in 2018

Final energy consumption in the Northern America region in 2018 was dominated by the use of oil. Gas made up 23% of the total consumption, followed by electricity, accounting for 21%.

FIGURE 9. FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY ENERGY SOURCE IN THE NORTHERN AMERICA REGION IN 2018

Natural Gas

Heat and Other 1.4%

49%

23%

5%

21%

0.6%

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FIGURE 10. ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION BY ENERGY SOURCE IN THE NORTHERN AMERICA REGION IN 2018

Natural Gas

Bioenergy and Waste Hydro

Nuclear Wind Solar Geothermal Other 26%

1%

31%

2%

14%

18%

6%

1.9% 0.4%

0.1%

Electricity Production in 2018

In the electricity production mix in 2018, gas based electricity production grew to over 30% of the total, exceeding the level of coal. Nuclear electricity remained at about 18% of the total. Hydropower and other renewables provided about 25% of the total electricity production.

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Energy and Electricity Projections

● Final energy consumption in the Northern America region is expected to decrease owing to efficiency improvements and structural changes in the economy. A decrease of about 4% from the present level of 74 EJ is expected by 2030, reaching about 6% by 2050.

● In contrast, electricity consumption will continue to increase, albeit at a slow pace (0.5% growth annually).

● The share of electricity in final energy consumption will gradually increase to about 26% by the middle of the century.

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FIGURE 11. FINAL CONSUMPTION OF ENERGY AND ELECTRICITY IN THE NORTHERN AMERICA REGION

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

2018 2030 2040 2050

EJ

Electricity Energy

Energy (EJ) Electricity (EJ) % of total

TABLE 7. FINAL CONSUMPTION OF ENERGY AND ELECTRICITY IN THE NORTHERN AMERICA REGION

Final

73.9 71.2 69.8 69.4

2030 2040 2050

15.6 21.1

16.9 24.2

18.0 16.2

25.9 22.8

a

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Nuclear Electrical Generating Capacity Projections

● Electrical generating capacity in the Northern America region is projected to increase by 2% to reach 1391 GW(e) by 2040, and then to decrease to 1351 GW(e) by 2050.

● Nuclear electrical generating capacity is expected to change significantly in this region over the next three decades in the low case, but remain relatively stable in the high case.

● In the low case, nuclear electrical generating capacity is projected to decrease from the 2018 level of 113 GW(e) to 88 GW(e) by 2030 and then to 40 GW(e) by 2050. The share of nuclear electrical generating capacity in total electricity capacity is projected to decrease from 8.2% in 2018 to 6.4% by 2030 and to 3% by 2050.

● In the high case, nuclear electrical generating capacity is projected to remain near its current level throughout the period. It will first decrease to 111 GW(e) in 2030, then decrease to 109 GW(e) in 2040, and finally return to the 2030 level. The share of nuclear electrical generating capacity in total electricity capacity will, however, decrease from 8.2% to 7.8% in 2040 and then increase slightly to 8.3% by 2050.

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FIGURE 12. NUCLEAR ELECTRICAL GENERATING CAPACITY IN THE NORTHERN AMERICA REGION

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

2018 2030 2040 2050

GW(e)

Low High Low High Low High Total (GW(e))

Nuclear (GW(e)) 88 111 64 109 40 113

% of total 6.4 8.0 4.6 7.8 3.0 8.3

1 377 1 391 1 351

113 8.2

2050^a TABLE 8. TOTAL AND NUCLEAR ELECTRICAL GENERATING CAPACITY IN THE NORTHERN AMERICA REGION

1 366

2018 2030^a 2040^a

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Reactor Retirements and Additions

● Almost all of the existing nuclear power reactors in the Northern America region are scheduled to be retired by the middle of the century unless plant life extensions allowing operation up to 80 years are granted or approved.

● In the low case, about 25 GW(e) of nuclear electrical generating capacity will be retired by 2030. An additional 52 GW(e) of capacity will be retired between 2030 and 2050. The projected additions of nuclear electrical generating capacity, in this case, are minimal by 2030 and some 4 GW(e) by 2050.

● In the high case, most of the nuclear power reactor retirements will be delayed by plant life extensions;

however, these plants will also be close to retirement by the middle of the century. The additions of nuclear electrical generating capacity, in this case, are projected to be 6 GW(e) by 2030 and some 10 GW(e) by 2050.

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FIGURE 13. NUCLEAR CAPACITY IN THE NORTHERN AMERICA REGION:

ACTUAL, RETIREMENTS AND ADDITIONS

GW(e)

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

2018 ents tions 2030 ents tions 2050

GW(e)

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

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Electricity and Nuclear Production Projections

● The total electricity production in the Northern America region is projected to increase from 4867 TW∙h in 2018 to 5121 TW∙h in 2030 — an increase of about 5% over 12 years — and then to 5729 TW∙h by 2050.

● The contribution of nuclear electricity is projected to undergo significant changes in both the low and the high case, but remain relatively stable in the high case.

● In the low case, nuclear electricity production is projected to decrease significantly — from 902 TW∙h in 2018 to 699 TW∙h in 2030 and to 324 TW∙h in 2050. The share of nuclear electricity in total electricity production will thus decrease from 18.5% in 2018 to 13.6% in 2030 and to only about 6% in 2050.

● In the high case, nuclear electricity production is projected to decrease by about 4% from 902 TW∙h in 2018 to 868 TW∙h in 2040, and then to increase to 909 TW∙h in 2050. The share of nuclear electricity production in total electricity will likewise decrease, falling from 18.5% to 17.2% in 2030 and to about 16% in 2050.

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FIGURE 14. NUCLEAR ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION IN THE NORTHERN AMERICA REGION

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1 000

2018 2030 2040 2050

TW·h

Nuclear (TW·h) 699 880 510 868 324 909

% of total 13.6 17.2 9.5 16.2 5.7 15.9

902 18.5

a The nuclear production data presented in this table and the nuclear electrical generating TABLE 9. TOTAL AND NUCLEAR ELECTRICAL PRODUCTION

IN THE NORTHERN AMERICA REGION^a Electricity

Production 2018 2030 2040 2050

4 867 5 121 5 366 5 729

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Latin America and

the Caribbean

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Final Energy Consumption in 2018

Final energy consumption in the Latin America and the Caribbean region was dominated by oil and gas, which together accounted for over 60% of the total, with coal accounting for only 3% of the final energy consumption in 2018. Electricity use in 2018 was 19% of the total final energy consumption, while bioenergy and waste (including traditional fuels) accounted for about 18%.

FIGURE 15. FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY ENERGY SOURCE IN THE LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION IN 2018

Natural Gas

Heat and Other 3%

48%

12%

18%

19%

0.2%

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FIGURE 16. ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION BY ENERGY SOURCE IN THE LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION IN 2018

Natural Gas

Nuclear Wind Solar Geothermal 5%

7%

26%

5%

48%

2%

5%

0.9% 0.6%

Electricity Production in 2018

Hydropower is the main source of electricity production in the Latin America and the Caribbean region, providing about 48% of the total electricity production. Fossil fuel based electricity production accounted for about 38% of the total, led by gas at 26%. Renewables and other sources contributed about 13% to the total electricity production in 2018. Nuclear electricity had only a 2% share in total electricity production in the region.

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Energy and Electricity Projections

● The total final energy consumption in the Latin America and the Caribbean region is expected to increase by about 1.5% per year up to the middle of the century.

● Electricity consumption, however, will increase at a faster rate of 2.4% growth annually.

● The share of electricity in final energy consumption will increase from 18.6% in 2018 to 19.5% in 2030 and about 24.2% by the middle of the century.

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FIGURE 17. FINAL CONSUMPTION OF ENERGY AND ELECTRICITY IN THE LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

2018 2030 2040 2050

EJ

Electricity Energy

Energy (EJ) Electricity (EJ)

% of total

TABLE 10. FINAL CONSUMPTION OF ENERGY AND ELECTRICITY IN THE LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION

Final

25.4 31.8 36.7 41.3

2030 2040 2050

4.7 18.6

8.0 21.8

10.0 6.2

19.5 24.2

a

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Nuclear Electrical Generating Capacity Projections

● Electrical generating capacity in the Latin America and the Caribbean region is projected to increase by 34% by 2030, reaching 571 GW(e), and to almost double by 2050.

● Nuclear electrical generating capacity is projected to increase in both the low and the high cases, but the role of nuclear electricity will remain small.

● In the low case, nuclear electrical generating capacity is projected to increase from 5 GW(e) in 2018 to 6 GW(e) by 2030 and to 9 GW(e) by 2050. The share of nuclear in the total electrical generating capacity is projected to decrease slightly from 1.2% to 1.1% by 2050.

● In contrast, in the high case, nuclear electrical generating capacity is projected to increase to 8 GW(e) in 2030 and to 19 GW(e) in 2050. The share of nuclear electrical generating capacity in total electrical capacity will thus increase to 1.4% in 2030 and to 2.3% in 2050.

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FIGURE 18. NUCLEAR ELECTRICAL GENERATING CAPACITY IN THE LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION

0 5 10 15 20 25

2018 2030 2040 2050

GW(e)

Low High Low High Low High Total (GW(e))

Nuclear (GW(e)) 6 8 7 14 9 19

% of total 1.1 1.4 1.0 2.0 1.1 2.3

571 717 847

5 1.2

2050^a TABLE 11. TOTAL AND NUCLEAR ELECTRICAL GENERATING CAPACITY IN THE LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION

427

2018 2030^a 2040^a

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Reactor Retirements and Additions

● There are seven nuclear power reactors operating in the Latin America and the Caribbean region. All but one were constructed before 2001 and are scheduled to be retired by the middle of the century.

● In the low case, 4.4 GW(e) of the existing nuclear electrical generating capacity will be retired by 2050. In the high case, retirement of some of the nuclear power reactors will be delayed by plant life extensions, and about half the existing nuclear capacity will be retired.

● The projected additions of nuclear electrical generating capacity in the high case are 3.4 GW(e) by 2030 and an additional 13 GW(e) by 2050. In the low case, only 8 GW(e) of additional capacity is projected for the entire period.

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FIGURE 19. NUCLEAR CAPACITY IN THE LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION: ACTUAL, RETIREMENTS AND ADDITIONS

GW(e)

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

2018 etirements Additions 2030 etirements Additions 2050

GW(e)

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

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48

Electricity and Nuclear Production Projections

● Total electricity production in the Latin America and the Caribbean region is projected to increase by around 2.4%

per year.

● Nuclear electricity production is projected to increase in both the low and the high cases, but its role will remain small in the coming decades.

● In the low case, nuclear electricity production will double in the next 32 years to reach 74 TW∙h in 2050. The share of nuclear electricity in total electricity production will remain at about 2.2%.

● In the high case, nuclear electricity production will almost double by 2030 to reach 62 TW∙h, and with a further doubling by 2050. The share of nuclear electricity in total electricity production will therefore increase from 2.2% in 2018 to 2.9% in 2030 and to 4.7% in 2050.

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FIGURE 20. NUCLEAR ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION IN THE LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

2018 2030 2040 2050

TW·h

Nuclear (TW·h) 46 62 56 112 74 155

% of total 2.2 2.9 1.9 4.8 2.2 4.7

35 2.2

a The nuclear production data presented in this table and the nuclear electrical generating capacity data presented in Table 11 cannot be used to calculate average annual capacity TABLE 12. TOTAL AND NUCLEAR ELECTRICAL PRODUCTION

IN THE LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION^a Electricity

Production 2018 2030 2040 2050

1 565 2 122 2 715 3 326

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(61)

Northern, Western and

Southern Europe

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52

FIGURE 21. FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY ENERGY SOURCE IN THE COMBINED REGIONS OF NORTHERN, WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EUROPE IN 2018

Natural Gas

Heat and Other 4%

41%

21%

8%

22%

4%

Final Energy Consumption in 2018

Final energy consumption in the combined regions of Northern, Western and Southern Europe continued to be dominated by fossil fuels in 2018. Electricity provided 22%

of the total final energy consumed.

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FIGURE 22. ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION BY ENERGY SOURCE IN THE COMBINED REGIONS OF NORTHERN, WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EUROPE IN 2018

Natural Gas

Nuclear Wind Solar Geothermal Other 15%

2%

19%

7%

17%

24%

12%

3.9%

0.4%

0.1%

Electricity Production in 2018

The electricity production mix in the combined regions of Northern, Western and Southern Europe was very diverse in 2018. Nuclear electricity contributed about a quarter of the total production in this region, while hydropower, other renewables and other sources provided about a third of the total.

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54

Energy and Electricity Projections

● Total final energy consumption in the combined regions of Northern, Western and Southern Europe is expected to decrease as a result of efficiency improvements and structural changes in the economy. Decreases of about 7% and about 15% from the present level of 45 EJ are expected by 2030 and by 2050, respectively.

● Electricity consumption will initially remain almost the same but will increase after 2030, with a 14% increase expected between 2030 and 2050.

● The share of electricity in final energy consumption will thus increase from 21.9% in 2018 to 24.5% by 2030 and to 30.5% by 2050.