52
FIGURE 21. FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY ENERGY SOURCE IN THE COMBINED REGIONS OF NORTHERN, WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EUROPE IN 2018
Coal, Lignite and Peat Oil
Natural Gas
Bioenergy and Waste Electricity
Heat and Other 4%
41%
21%
8%
22%
4%
Final Energy Consumption in 2018
Final energy consumption in the combined regions of Northern, Western and Southern Europe continued to be dominated by fossil fuels in 2018. Electricity provided 22%
of the total final energy consumed.
FIGURE 22. ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION BY ENERGY SOURCE IN THE COMBINED REGIONS OF NORTHERN, WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EUROPE IN 2018
Coal, Lignite and Peat Oil
Electricity Production in 2018
The electricity production mix in the combined regions of Northern, Western and Southern Europe was very diverse in 2018. Nuclear electricity contributed about a quarter of the total production in this region, while hydropower, other renewables and other sources provided about a third of the total.
54
Energy and Electricity Projections
● Total final energy consumption in the combined regions of Northern, Western and Southern Europe is expected to decrease as a result of efficiency improvements and structural changes in the economy. Decreases of about 7% and about 15% from the present level of 45 EJ are expected by 2030 and by 2050, respectively.
● Electricity consumption will initially remain almost the same but will increase after 2030, with a 14% increase expected between 2030 and 2050.
● The share of electricity in final energy consumption will thus increase from 21.9% in 2018 to 24.5% by 2030 and to 30.5% by 2050.
FIGURE 23. FINAL CONSUMPTION OF ENERGY AND ELECTRICITY IN THE COMBINED REGIONS OF NORTHERN, WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EUROPE
0
2018 2030 2040 2050
EJ
Electricity Energy
Energy (EJ) Electricity (EJ)
% of total
TABLE 13. FINAL CONSUMPTION OF ENERGY AND ELECTRICITY IN THE COMBINED REGIONS OF NORTHERN, WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EUROPE
Final
a Final consumption refers to all fuel and energy that is delivered to energy consumers.
10.7
56
Nuclear Electrical Generating Capacity Projections
● Total electrical generating capacity in the combined regions of Northern, Western and Southern Europe is projected to increase by 16% by 2030 and by a further 13% to reach 1290 GW(e) by 2050.
● Several countries in these regions have announced a phaseout of nuclear power. The regions’ nuclear power capacity will therefore change significantly in the coming years.
● In the low case, nuclear electrical generating capacity is projected to decrease by 32% by 2030 and by a further 44% by 2050. The share of nuclear power capacity in total electricity capacity will thus decrease from 11.2% in 2018 to 6.5% by 2030 and to 3.2% by 2050.
● In the high case, the nuclear electrical generating capacity is projected to decrease to 94 GW(e) by 2030 and to 67 GW(e) in 2050. The share of nuclear power capacity in the total electricity production capacity will therefore decrease from 11.2% in 2018 to 8.2% in 2030 and to 5.2%
in 2050.
FIGURE 24. NUCLEAR ELECTRICAL GENERATING CAPACITY IN THE COMBINED REGIONS OF NORTHERN, WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EUROPE
0
Low High Low High Low High
2018 2030 2040 2050
GW(e)
Low High Low High Low High Total (GW(e))
Nuclear (GW(e)) 75 94 50 88 42 67
% of total 6.5 8.2 4.2 7.4 3.2 5.2
a Nuclear capacity estimates take into account the scheduled retirement of older units at the end of their lifetime.
1 144 1 198 1 290
111 11.2
2050a
TABLE 14. TOTAL AND NUCLEAR ELECTRICAL GENERATING CAPACITY IN THE COMBINED REGIONS OF NORTHERN, WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EUROPE
Electrical Capacity
989
2018 2030a 2040a
58
Reactor Retirements and Additions
● Almost all of the existing nuclear power reactors in the combined regions of Northern, Western and Southern Europe are scheduled to be retired by the middle of the century.
● In the low case, about 44 GW(e) of nuclear electrical generating capacity will be retired by 2030 and an additional 57 GW(e) of capacity will be retired between 2030 and 2050. The projected additions of nuclear capacity in this case are only 8 GW(e) by 2030 and some 24 GW(e) by 2050.
● In the high case, nuclear power reactor retirements will be delayed; the majority of the reactors will be retired between 2030 and 2050. The additions of nuclear capacity in this case are projected to be 8 GW(e) by 2030 and an additional some 44 GW(e) by 2050.
LOW CASE HIGH CASE
FIGURE 25. NUCLEAR CAPACITY IN THE COMBINED REGIONS OF NORTHERN, WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EUROPE: ACTUAL, RETIREMENTS AND ADDITIONS
2018 Retirements Additions 2030 Retirements Additions 2050
GW(e)
2018 ents tions 2030 ents tions 2050
GW(e)
60
Electricity and Nuclear Production Projections
● Total electricity production in the combined regions of Northern, Western and Southern Europe is projected to increase from 3013 TW∙h in 2018 to 3167 TW∙h in 2030 — an increase of about 5% over 12 years — with an additional increase of 12% to reach 3556 TW∙h by 2050.
● In the low case, nuclear electricity production will decrease significantly from 729 TW∙h in 2018 to 589 TW∙h in 2030 and to 335 TW∙h in 2050. The share of nuclear electricity in the total will thus decrease from 24.2% in 2018 to 18.6%
by 2030 and to 9.4% by 2050.
● In the high case, nuclear electricity production is projected first to increase by about 1.5% by 2030, and then to decrease significantly by 27% between 2030 and 2050.
The share of nuclear electricity in total electricity production will decrease to reach 15.1% by 2050.
FIGURE 26. NUCLEAR ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION IN THE COMBINED REGIONS OF NORTHERN, WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EUROPE
0
Low High Low High Low High
2018 2030 2040 2050
TW·h
Low High Low High Low High Total (TW·h)
Nuclear (TW·h) 589 740 401 707 335 538
% of total 18.6 23.4 12.0 21.2 9.4 15.1
TABLE 15. TOTAL AND NUCLEAR ELECTRICAL PRODUCTION IN THE COMBINED REGIONS OF NORTHERN, WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EUROPEa
Electricity
Production 2018 2030 2040 2050
3 013 3 167 3 338 3 556
729 24.2
a The nuclear production data presented in this table and the nuclear electrical generating capacity data presented in Table 14 cannot be used to calculate average annual capacity