Article pp.263-275 du Vol.2 n°2 (2010)

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Les problématiques énergétiques, enjeu de déstabilisation ? L’exemple du nucléaire

³ Par Viviane du Castel

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aDocteur en Sciences politiques, analyste géopolitique, spécialisée sur les problématiques énergétiques en Europe centrale et orientale ; directeur pédagogique

et enseignant-chercheur à l’ISEG et chercheur à l’IERAM et ISMEA

Résumé

La raréfaction des hydrocarbures, les incertitudes géopolitiques qui en découlent, la fluctuation et la volatilité des prix amènent, depuis les années 2000, une évolution dans laquelle la conjoncture favorise l’énergie nucléaire à usage civil. Ainsi, le développement du marché international de l’industrie nucléaire est lié à la compétitivité des centrales atomiques face à leurs concurrents utilisant des énergies fossiles (pétrole, gaz, charbon). Le nucléaire est à la fois une énergie avantageuse pour les pays qui y ont recours (peu d’émissions de gaz à effet de serre, peu polluante, prix stables et concurrentiels, approvisionnements sans obstacle majeur) et préoccupante (absence de réelle solution pour les déchets, risque de transfert du nucléaire civil vers le nucléaire militaire). L’Intelligence Économique (IE) apparaît ici comme essentielle pour les entreprises de ce secteur et repose sur un défi technologique important et urgent. L’IE est devenue un impératif pour les entreprises du secteur énergétique. © 2010 Lavoisier SAS. Tous droits réservés

Mots clés : Intelligence économique, nucléaire, nucléaire civil, nucléaire militaire, énergie, sécurité énergétique, sécurité des approvisionnements, Russie, Union européenne.

Abstract

Barents Sea: a laboratory for a New Energy Diplomacy. The depletion of oil, geopolitical uncertainties resulting, fluctuation and price volatility leads, since the 2000s, a development in which the economy favors nuclear energy for civilian use.

Thus, the development of the international market for nuclear industry is linked to the competitiveness of nuclear deal with their competitors using fossil fuels (oil, gas, coal).

Nuclear power is both an energy benefit to the countries that we use (low emissions of greenhouse gas emissions, low pollution, stable prices and competitive supply without major obstacles) and worrying (no real solution for waste, transfer risk from civilian to

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nuclear weapons). The Business Intelligence (BI) appears to be essential for companies in this industry and is based on technical and urgent challenges. BI has become an imperative for companies in the energy sector. © 2010 Lavoisier SAS. All rights reserved

Keywords: Business intelligence, nuclear, civil nuclear, military nuclear energy, energy security, security of supply, Russia, European Union.

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1. La bonne gouvernance du nucléaire : un défi lié à l’Intelligence économique

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1.1. Gestion et Intelligence économique

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1 Le cours est passé de 20 $ la livre, en 1990, à plus de 148 $, en juillet 2008. Actuellement, le cours de l’uranium varie selon les pays : Kazakhstan : 20 $, Canada : 25 $, Niger : 40 $, Namibie : 50 $...

2 Les principaux acteurs sont : Camaeco (Canada), Areva (France), Rio Tinto (GB et Australie), BHP Billiton (Australie), KazAtomProm (Kazakhstan), Tvel (Russie), Navoi (Ouzbékistan). Les principaux pays producteurs d’uranium sont le Canada : 9.000 tonnes (t), le Kazakhstan : 8.521 t, l’Australie : 8.430 t, la Namibie : 4.366 t, la Russie : 3.521 t, le Niger : 3.032 t, l’Ouzbékistan : 2.338 t.

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Hors matières premières, les coûts de production de l’électricité nucléaire s’opèrent sur les marchés nationaux.

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1.3. France, un exemple à suivre ?

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Fortes variations de la demande énergétique, hausse de l’efficacité énergétique, accroissement de la part des énergies alternatives, développement du nucléaire civil….

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hydraulique.

EPR : European Pressurised Reactor- Réacteur pressurisé européen.

Astrid devrait fonctionner grâce à de l’uranium 238 afin d’amplifier les réserves disponibles. Le réacteur à une capacité de 600 MWe.

(7)

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2. Prévoir et anticiper : réponse aux défis et enjeux du XXI^e siècle

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2.1. Manipulation ou guerre économique ?

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58 centrales avec EDF, comme acteur majeur pour les questions de gestion.

Avec Areva comme acteur majeur.

(8)

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2.2. Déstabilisation versus contremesures

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Abdul Qadeer Khan est né le 27 avril 1936 à Bhopal. Ingénieur pakistanais, Président des laboratoires KRL (1981-2001), Conseiller du Président de la République pakistanaise et du Premier ministre (2001-2004).

(9)

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2.3. La Russie : un acteur déstabilisateur pour l’Union européenne ?

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(10)

3. Nucléaire et Intelligence économique : clef du succès

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3.1. Sûreté et information

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3.2. Lobbysme européen

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11 Ex. : sur l’année 2008 : variation ente 25 et 50%.

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3.3. UE : un cas d’école ?

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Conclusion

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