RAPPORT 2016SUR LES PAYS LES MOINS AVANCÉS

(1)

Le processus de reclassement et au-delà : tirer parti de la dynamique

RAPPORT 2016

SUR LES PAYS LES MOINS AVANCÉS

New York et Genève, 2016

(2)

(3)

Le processus de reclassement et au-delà : tirer parti de la dynamique

RAPPORT 2016

SUR LES PAYS LES MOINS AVANCÉS

New York et Genève, 2016

(4)

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4XLVRQWOHVSD\VOHVPRLQVDYDQFÆV}" ... iii

Remerciements ...iv

Sigles et abréviations ...xi

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Aperçu général ...I-XVI INTRODUCTION : Tendances Économiques Récentes et Perspectives dans les PMA ...1

A. Introduction ... 2

B. Le secteur réel ... 2

C. Compte des opérations courantes et commerce international ... 4

%DODQFHGHVRSÆUDWLRQVFRXUDQWHV... &RPPHUFHGHVELHQVHWVHUYLFHV ... D. Mobilisation des ressources ... 9

0RELOLVDWLRQGHVUHVVRXUFHVQDWLRQDOHV ... )OX[GHFDSLWDX[SXEOLFV ... ,QYHVWLVVHPHQWÆWUDQJHUGLUHFW ... (QYRLVGHIRQGVSHUVRQQHOV ... E. Perspectives économiques des pays les moins avancés ... 12

Notes ... 14

Bibliographie ... 14

CHAPITRE 1 : Le Reclassement : une Étape, et Non une Fin en Soi ...15

%/DVLWXDWLRQGLIƄFLOHGHVSD\VOHVPRLQVDYDQFÆVODUDLVRQGpÇWUHGHODFDWÆJRULHHWOpLPSRUWDQFH du reclassement ... 17

/DUDLVRQGpÇWUHGHODFDWÆJRULHGHVSD\VOHVPRLQVDYDQFÆV ... /HSLÅJHGHODSDXYUHWÆ ... /HSLÅJHGHODGÆSHQGDQFH½OpÆJDUGGHVSURGXLWVGHEDVH ... 2EVWDFOHV½ODFURLVVDQFHOLÆV½ODEDODQFHGHVSDLHPHQWV ... /pLPSRUWDQFHGXUHFODVVHPHQW ... C. Le processus et les critères de reclassement ... 30

'/pÆYROXWLRQGHODOLVWHGHVSD\VOHVPRLQVDYDQFÆV ... 31

(/DFDWÆJRULHGHVSD\VOHVPRLQVDYDQFÆV}SOXVTXHMDPDLVGpDFWXDOLWÆ ... 32

/DGLYHUJHQFHÆFRQRPLTXHHWODFRQFHQWUDWLRQFURLVVDQWHGXGÆQXHPHQWVRFLDO ... /DGLYHUJHQFHVXUOHSODQGHVFDSDFLWÆVSURGXFWLYHV ... /pÆYROXWLRQGXFRQWH[WHÆFRQRPLTXHPRQGLDOGXGÆYHORSSHPHQW ... )/HUHFODVVHPHQWGDQVTXHOOHSHUVSHFWLYH}"... 39

8QHÆWDSHSDVXQHƄQHQVRL ... /HUHFODVVHPHQWG\QDPLTXH}/HUÑOHIRQGDPHQWDOGHVFDSDFLWÆVSURGXFWLYHV ... /HUÑOHGÆFLVLIGHOpÆTXLWÆHWGHOpÆJDOLWÆHQWUHOHVVH[HV ... G. Le calcul économique et politique du reclassement ... 45

OHFDOFXOÆFRQRPLTXH ... /HFDOFXOSROLWLTXH ... H. Résumé ... 47

Notes ... 48

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CHAPITRE 2 : La Dynamique Nationale du Reclassement ...51

%5HFODVVHPHQW}KLVWRULTXHÆWDWDFWXHOHWSHUVSHFWLYHV... 52

C. Les facteurs géographiques et leurs incidences sur le reclassement des PMA ... 58

3D\VHQGÆYHORSSHPHQWVDQVOLWWRUDO ... 3HWLWVÆWDWVLQVXODLUHVHQGÆYHORSSHPHQW ... D. Processus nationaux conduisant au reclassement ... 63

6WUDWÆJLHVGHVSD\VUHFODVVÆV½FHMRXU ... 6WUDWÆJLHVSODQVHWSROLWLTXHVGHV30$DFWXHOV ... (/HJURXSHGHV30$HQ}OHVLPSOLFDWLRQVGHVSURMHFWLRQVGHOD&18&(' ... 73

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Notes ... 81

CHAPITRE 3 : La Contribution des Mesures Internationales d’Appui au Reclassement ....85

%$SHUÄXGHVPHVXUHVLQWHUQDWLRQDOHVGpDSSXL ... 87

&0HVXUHVƄQDQFLÅUHVGHVRXWLHQLQWHUQDWLRQDO ... 89

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$LGH½ODVFLHQFH½ODWHFKQRORJLHHW½OpLQQRYDWLRQ ... /p$FFRUGVXUOHVDVSHFWVGHVGURLWVGHSURSULÆWÆLQWHOOHFWXHOOHTXLWRXFKHQWDXFRPPHUFH ... 7UDQVIHUWGHWHFKQRORJLHVOLÆDX[FKDQJHPHQWVFOLPDWLTXHV ... /DEDQTXHGHVWHFKQRORJLHVSRXUOHVSD\VOHVPRLQVDYDQFÆV ... F. Le rôle des mesures de soutien international dans les précédents cas de reclassement ... 118

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H. Conclusion ... 122

I. Résumé ... 124

Notes ... 125

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CHAPITRE 4 : Processus et Difficultés Après le Reclassement ...131

B. Le processus de transition en douceur ... 132

C. Conséquences économiques du reclassement... 135

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'HWWHH[WÆULHXUH ... $LGHSXEOLTXHDXGÆYHORSSHPHQWHWLQYHVWLVVHPHQWVÆWUDQJHUVGLUHFWV ... 3ROLWLTXHVGHGLYHUVLƄFDWLRQÆFRQRPLTXH... 3DXYUHWÆHWLQÆJDOLWÆV... F. Résumé ... 161

Notes ... 162

$QQH[H6LPXODWLRQGHVHIIHWVGHODSHUWHGHSUÆIÆUHQFHVFRPPHUFLDOHVLPSXWDEOHDXUHFODVVHPHQW} Méthodologie ... 167

CHAPITRE 5 : Le Processus de Reclassement et Au-delà ...169

B. Reclassement dynamique... 170

C. Stratégies optimisées de reclassement dynamique ... 172

/DWUDQVIRUPDWLRQUXUDOH ... /DSROLWLTXHLQGXVWULHOOH ... 3ROLWLTXHGDQVOHGRPDLQHGHODVFLHQFHGHODWHFKQRORJLHHWGHOpLQQRYDWLRQ ... )LQDQFHPHQWGXGÆYHORSSHPHQW ... 0HVXUHVPDFURÆFRQRPLTXHV ... &UÆDWLRQGpHPSORLV ... ¦galité des sexes... '/pHQYLURQQHPHQWLQWHUQDWLRQDO ... 182

(0HVXUHVLQWHUQDWLRQDOHVGpDSSXL ... 183

)LQDQFHPHQWGXGÆYHORSSHPHQW ... 3URSRVLWLRQ}8QPÆFDQLVPHGHIDFLOLWDWLRQGXƄQDQFHPHQWHQIDYHXUGHV30$ ... &RPPHUFH ... 7HFKQRORJLH ... F. Critères de reclassement des pays les moins avancés ... 191

G. Résumé ... 193

Notes ... 195

(10)

Encadrés

1.1. Bref historique de la catégorie des PMA ... 17

¦YROXWLRQGHVFULWÅUHVDSSOLTXÆVSRXUTXpXQSD\VHQWUHGDQVODFDWÆJRULHGHV30$RXHQVRUWH ... 28

0ÆWKRGHGHSURMHFWLRQGHVVRUWLHVGHODFDWÆJRULHGHV30$MXVTXpHQ ... 56

/HVPRGÅOHV0,5$%352),7HW6,7(... 61

5ÆSDUWLWLRQVHFWRULHOOHGHOpDLGHDX[30$UHFODVVÆV... 94

3.2. Évaluation préliminaire de la dérogation relative aux services ... 106

4.1. Le bilan de la transition en douceur parmi les pays retirés récemment de la liste PMA ... 134

4.2. Le piège du revenu intermédiaire et la croissance des PMA ... 152

3URJUDPPHV0LFUR/HDGHW0LFUR/HDG([SDQVLRQGX)(18... 178

Figures ,QWUR¦YROXWLRQGHVSUL[GHVSURGXLWVGHEDVHSDUW\SH... 3

,QWUR%DODQFHGHVRSÆUDWLRQVFRXUDQWHVGHV30$ ... 5

,QWUR%DODQFHFRXUDQWHHQSRXUFHQWDJHGX3,% ... 6

,QWUR&RPSRVLWLRQGHVH[SRUWDWLRQVHWGHVLPSRUWDWLRQVGHV30$... 8

,QWUR0RQWDQWQHWGHOp$3'YHUVÆHDX[30$GH½... 11

3DUWGHVSURGXLWVGHEDVHGDQVOHVH[SRUWDWLRQVGHPDUFKDQGLVHVSDUFDWÆJRULHGHSURGXLW ... 21

1.2. Part des produits de base dans les exportations de marchandises des PMA ... 22

'ÆSHQGDQFH½OpÆJDUGGHVSURGXLWVGHEDVHHWFRQFHQWUDWLRQGHVH[SRUWDWLRQV ... 23

%DODQFHFRXUDQWHGHV30$SDUFDWÆJRULHGpH[SRUWDWLRQ... 26

5ÆSDUWLWLRQGHV30$SDUJURXSHJÆRJUDSKLTXH ... 31

1.6. PNB par habitant des PMA et des autres pays en développement en pourcentage de la moyenne PRQGLDOH ... 33

3DUWGHV30$GDQVODSRSXODWLRQPRQGLDOHODSDXYUHWÆHWOHVODFXQHVLQIUDVWUXFWXUHOOHV ... 33

7DX[GpLQVFULSWLRQGDQVOpHQVHLJQHPHQWVXSÆULHXU30$HWDXWUHVSD\VHQGÆYHORSSHPHQW ... 34

&KRL[GpLQGLFDWHXUVGHVFDSDFLWÆVWHFKQRORJLTXHVGDQVOHV30$HWOHVDXWUHVSD\VHQGÆYHORSSHPHQW ... 35

&RQVRPPDWLRQGpÆQHUJLHSDUKDELWDQW30$HWDXWUHVSD\VHQGÆYHORSSHPHQW ... 35

$FFÅV½GHVVHUYLFHVƄQDQFLHUV30$HWDXWUHVSD\VHQGÆYHORSSHPHQW (dernières données disponibles) ... 36

$FFÅVDX[7,&30$DXWUHVSD\VHQGÆYHORSSHPHQWHWSD\VUHFODVVÆV... 37

$3'FRPPHUFH,('HWHQYRLVGHIRQGVHQSRXUFHQWDJHGX3,%PRQGLDO... 38

0RQWDQWUÆHOGHOp$3'UHÄXHSDUKDELWDQWSDUOHV30$HWOHVDXWUHVSD\VHQGÆYHORSSHPHQW ... 39

1.15. Reclassement des PMA et développement durable ... 43

*URXSHVGHSD\V30$SD\VHQGÆYHORSSHPHQWVDQVOLWWRUDO3(,'HWSD\VGp$IULTXHVXEVDKDULHQQH ... 57

5HYHQXQDWLRQDOEUXWSDUKDELWDQWGHV30$HWGHVVRXVJURXSHVGHV30$... 59

2.3. Quelques indicateurs structurels relatifs aux PMA sans littoral ... 59

2.4. Quelques indicateurs structurels relatifs aux PMA qui sont des PEID... 62

&DUDFWÆULVWLTXHVJÆRJUDSKLTXHVGXJURXSHGHV30$HQOpÆWDWDFWXHOHWVHORQOHVSURMHFWLRQV... 74

6SÆFLDOLVDWLRQGHVH[SRUWDWLRQVGDQVOHJURXSHGHV30$HQOpÆWDWDFWXHOHWVHORQOHVSURMHFWLRQV ... 77

(QJDJHPHQWVHQIDYHXUGHV30$DXWLWUHGHOp$3'HWYHUVHPHQWVQHWV... 91

0RQWDQWQHWGHOp$3'UHÄXHHQSRXUFHQWDJHGX51%GXSD\VEÆQÆƄFLDLUH... 92

0RQWDQWGHOp$3'QHWWHGHVSD\VPHPEUHVGX&$'HQIDYHXUGHV30$... 93

0RQWDQWGHOp$3'QHWWHDX[30$ÆFDUWSDUUDSSRUWDX[REMHFWLIVGHOp218SRXUOHVGRQDWHXUVGX&$' ... 95

(QJDJHPHQWVGHVGRQDWHXUVGX&$'HQPDWLÅUHGp$3'DX[30$SDUFDWÆJRULHGpDLGH ... 96

'LDJUDPPHGHOpDUFKLWHFWXUHGXƄQDQFHPHQWFOLPDWLTXHPRQGLDO ... 98

9DOHXUGHVLPSRUWDWLRQVGHOD4XDGULODWÆUDOHHQSURYHQDQFHGH30$YHQWLOÆHSDUUÆJLPH préférentiel (2013) ... 105

(11)

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Quadrilatérale (2013) ... 107

'ÆFDLVVHPHQWVDXWLWUHGHOpDLGHDXFRPPHUFHHQIDYHXUGHV30$SDUSULQFLSDX[VHFWHXUV (tous les donateurs) ... 111

0RQWDQWVEUXWGHOp$3'DOORXÆV½OD67,GDQVOHV30$HWOHVDXWUHVSD\V HQGÆYHORSSHPHQW½... 114

,QIRUPDWLRQV½SUÆVHQWHUSDUOHVSD\VHQFRXUVGHUHFODVVHPHQWHWOHVSD\VUHFODVVÆVHWOH&RPLWÆ des politiques de développement dans le cadre des procédures de transition en douceur ... 133

&RPSRVLWLRQGHVƅX[GHFDSLWDX[SXEOLFVWRWDX[DYDQWHWDSUÅVOHUHFODVVHPHQW ... 138

,PSDFWGHODSHUWHGHVSUÆIÆUHQFHVFDXVÆHSDUOHUHFODVVHPHQWSDUUDSSRUWDX[SD\VGX* ... 141

(IIHWVGHVSHUWHVGHSUÆIÆUHQFHVOLÆHVDXUHWUDLWGHODOLVWHGHV30$SDUVHFWHXU ... 144

'ÆSHQGDQFH½OpÆJDUGGHVSURGXLWVGHEDVHHWVROGHGHVFRPSWHVFRXUDQWV ... 150

4.6. Risques liés aux changements climatiques et potentiel de réduction des risques ... 151

1LYHDXGHODGHWWHH[WÆULHXUHGHVSD\VUHFODVVÆVLQGLFHDQQÆHGXUHFODVVHPHQW ... 157

Figures des encadrés ¦YROXWLRQGHVFULWÅUHVGHFODVVHPHQWGDQVODFDWÆJRULHGHV30$DXƄOGXWHPSV... 29

5ÆSDUWLWLRQVHFWRULHOOHGHVYHUVHPHQWVDXWLWUHGHOpDLGHSRXUOpHQVHPEOHGHVSD\VDSSDUWHQDQW DFWXHOOHPHQW½ODFDWÆJRULHGHV30$HWSRXUOHV30$UHFODVVÆVDYDQWOHXUUHFODVVHPHQW... 94

'LVWULEXWLRQGHV30$DFWXHOVVHORQOH3,%SDUKDELWDQWSDUUDSSRUWDX[¦WDWV8QLV ... 154

&URLVVDQFHUÆHOOHGX3,%SDUKDELWDQW ... 154

Tableaux ,QWUR7DX[GHFURLVVDQFHGX3,%UÆHOGDQVOHV30$OHVDXWUHVSD\VHQGÆYHORSSHPHQW HWOHVSD\VGÆYHORSSÆVt ... 3

,QWUR([SRUWDWLRQVHWLPSRUWDWLRQVGHELHQVHWVHUYLFHVGHV30$tTXHOTXHVDQQÆHV ... 7

,QWUR)RUPDWLRQEUXWHGHFDSLWDOƄ[HÆSDUJQHLQWÆULHXUHEUXWHHWGÆƄFLWHQUHVVRXUFHVH[WHUQHVGDQVOHV30$ ... 9

,QWUR,QYHVWLVVHPHQWÆWUDQJHUGLUHFWGDQVOHV30$GH½... 11

,QWUR(QYRLVGHIRQGVYHUVOHV30$SRXUFHUWDLQHVDQQÆHVGHODSÆULRGH ... 12

$FFÅVPÆGLDQDX[7,&SDUJURXSHGHSD\V ... 37

2.1. Historique du reclassement... 53

3URMHFWLRQVGHUHFODVVHPHQW ... 54

,QGLFDWHXUVVWUXFWXUHOVGHV30$HWGHVDXWUHVSD\VHQGÆYHORSSHPHQW... 74

,QGLFHGHFRQFHQWUDWLRQGHVH[SRUWDWLRQVGHV30$HWGHVDXWUHVSD\VHQGÆYHORSSHPHQW FHUWDLQHVDQQÆHV ... 78

3ULQFLSDOHVPHVXUHVLQWHUQDWLRQDOHVGpDSSXLHQIDYHXUGHV30$... 88

3.2. Aide publique au développement (APD) pour les PMA déclarée non liée en provenance GHVSD\VPHPEUHVGX&RPLWÆGpDLGHDXGÆYHORSSHPHQW&$'GHOp2&'( ... 97

3.3. Aide au commerce en faveur des PMA et des autres pays en développement ... 112

$FFÅVGHV30$HWGHVSD\VUHFODVVÆVDX[JXLFKHWVGHƄQDQFHPHQW½GHVFRQGLWLRQVGHIDYHXU DXSUÅVGHFHUWDLQHVEDQTXHVPXOWLODWÆUDOHVGHGÆYHORSSHPHQW ... 137

3DQRUDPDGpXQFHUWDLQQRPEUHGHSURJUDPPHVGpDFFÅVSUÆIÆUHQWLHODX[PDUFKÆVHQIDYHXUGHV30$... 140

(IIHWVDQQXHOVGHODSHUWHGHVSUÆIÆUHQFHVH[WUDSROÆV½OpHQVHPEOH GHV30$SDUUÆJLRQ ... 142

5ÆVXOWDWVGHVSD\VUHFODVVÆVLQGLFDWHXUVGH ... 157

0RQWDQWVUHÄXVQHWVDXWLWUHGHOp$3'... 158

5ÆSDUWLWLRQVHFWRULHOOHPR\HQQHGHODFUÆDWLRQGHYDOHXUDMRXWÆHDYDQWHWDSUÅVOHUHFODVVHPHQW dans les pays considérés ... 159

4.7. Indice de concentration des exportations sur dix ans avant et après reclassement ... 159

7DX[GHSDXYUHWÆLQGLFHGH*LQLHWWDX[GHFKÑPDJHSRXUOHVSD\VUHFODVVÆVDQQÆHVGLYHUVHV ... 160

(12)

NOTES EXPLICATIVES

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$&RQWUHIDFWXHOVXWLOLVÆVGDQVOpDQDO\VH ... 168

Tableaux d’encadrés

&ODVVHPHQWGHVSD\VLQVXODLUHVVHORQOHVPRGÅOHV0,5$%HW352),76,7(... 61 4.1. Matrice de transition entre les catégories de revenu de la Banque mondiale (PMA et pays reclassés) ... 153

(13)

Sigles et abréviations

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(14)

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(15)

Classifications utilisées dans le présent Rapport

Pays les moins avancés

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l’importance d’un processus de transition en douceur pour les pays concernés et d’une préparation précoce aux FRQVÆTXHQFHVGXUHFODVVHPHQW

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