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Bio-Economy: Chances,
Challenges, and Perspective of
the System as a Whole
Andreas Pfennig
Products, Environment, and Processes (PEPs) Department of Chemical Engineering
Université de Liège
www.chemeng.uliege.be/pfennig andreas.pfennig@uliege.be
presented at SFGP 2019, 15.-17.10.2019, Nantes, France
agenda
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motivation
world population
utilization of land-area
bio-economy: chances & challenges
consequences
Pfennig, A., 2019:
Sustainable Bio‐ or CO2 economy: Chances, Risks, and Systems Perspective.
ChemBioEng Reviews, 6(3), 90-104. https://doi.org/10.1002/cben.201900006
THE major driver
world population 7 600 000 000 food 2.8 kg/(cap d) energy 21 000 kWh/(cap a) materials ca. 0.9 kg/(cap d) fossil resources 5.6 kg/(cap d) land area agricultural: 7 000 m2/cap 3 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 variant: w o rl d p o p u la ti o n i n b ill io n year low medium high to d a y 95% intervalfuture development of world population
source: United Nations
World Population Prospect 2019 Revision
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 7 8 9 10 11 12 w o rld p o p u la tio n 2 0 5 0 in b illio n year of publication high variant medium variant low va riant 11.62 billion in 2050
development of UN-WPP prediction for 2050
5 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 e x p e c te d d e v e lo p m e n t to d a y w o rl d p o p u la ti o n i n b ill io n year uppe r lim it 11.62 billion in 2050 varian t:high medium low
what is to be expected
6future development of world population
7 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 e x p e c te d d e v e lo p m e n t to d a y w o rl d p o p u la ti o n i n b ill io n year uppe r lim it 11.62 billion in 2050 Club of Rome IPCC SR1.5 EU varian t:high medium lowmodelling approach
not an IAM (integrated assessment model) based on simple balances:
influence of individual parameters directly visible main drivers easy to realize
negative influence of too detailed models:
H. Hasse, 2003: Thermodynamics of Reactive Separations. in: K. Sundmacher, A. Kienle (Eds):
Reactive Distillation. Status and Future Directions. Wiley-VCH, Weinheim
world population × demand per person required land area =
19600 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 500 1000 1500 2000 overall - sev en major cro ps overall veget al prim ary pr oducts s p e c if ic p ro d u c ti v it y i n k c a l / (m 2 a ) year seve n majo r cro ps
land-area specific agrigultural productivity
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seven major crops:
• barley • corn • oil palm • rice • soybeans • sugar cane • wheat 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 a) biomaterials combustion pasture plant-based food forests meadows and pasture la n d a re a m 2 /c a p year arable land feed remaining forest
land-area: high pop. variant
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 h ig h U N p o p u la ti o n p ro s p e c t pasture feed +10%, more bio-diversity 20% reforestation +15%, ecological farming bio-materials bio-energy la n d -a re a d e m a n d i n m 2 p e r p e rs o n plant-based food 2050 available agricultural land area: m e d iu m U N p o p u la ti o n p ro s p e c t
land-area utilization in 2050
11options for bio-based chemicals 2050
gen feedstock intermediates radiuskm fi rs t g e n e ra ti o n sugar beet sugar or ethanol + CO2 10.4 ethanol 14.6 ethylene 18.7 sugar cane sugar or ethanol + CO2 7.5
ethanol 10.5 corn sugar or ethanol + CO2 13.4 ethanol 18.7 wheat sugar or ethanol + CO2 17.5 ethanol 24.5 oil palm plant oil 11.4 rape seed plant oil 30.1
s
e
c
o
n
d miscanthus/reeds sugar or ethanol + CO2 5.7
ethanol 7.9
wood sugar or ethanol + CO2 14.8 ethanol 20.7 th ir d corn straw sugar or ethanol + CO2 20.1 ethanol 28.2 wheat straw sugar or ethanol + CO2 23.2
0 500 1000 1500 area in m2/cap
goal
ranges:
maximum national and world average productivity projected for 2050 color:
■technically realized
bio- vs. CO
2-economy in Europe
utilize CO2from point source methane 1285 € / tC
methanol 970 € / tC
utilize CO2from air
methane 1800 € / tC
methanol 1480 € / tC
starch from wheat 560 € / tC
crude oil ≈ 376 € / tC
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conclusion
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bio-based chemistry:
cheaper, developed technology competition for land area
question of generations
third generation not sufficient
second generation: complex processes first generation:
simpler and established processes synergy with food production
CO2-based chemistry:
more expensive, new processes no fertile land area required
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Choices:
A. CO2-based chemistry
significant economic & technological risks for our future
B. bio-based chemistry, conventional
more people undernourished cut down forests
C. bio-based chemistry, vegan, 2 children per family
cheap, developed, enough space for ecology
You choose with your daily choices!
Bio-Economy: Chances,
Challenges, and Perspective of
the System as a Whole
Andreas Pfennig
Products, Environment, and Processes (PEPs) Department of Chemical Engineering
Université de Liège
www.chemeng.uliege.be/pfennig andreas.pfennig@uliege.be