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Bio-Economy: Chances, Challenges, and Perspective of the System as a Whole

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Bio-Economy: Chances,

Challenges, and Perspective of

the System as a Whole

Andreas Pfennig

Products, Environment, and Processes (PEPs) Department of Chemical Engineering

Université de Liège

www.chemeng.uliege.be/pfennig andreas.pfennig@uliege.be

presented at SFGP 2019, 15.-17.10.2019, Nantes, France

agenda

2

motivation

world population

utilization of land-area

bio-economy: chances & challenges

consequences

Pfennig, A., 2019:

Sustainable Bio‐ or CO2 economy: Chances, Risks, and Systems Perspective.

ChemBioEng Reviews, 6(3), 90-104. https://doi.org/10.1002/cben.201900006

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THE major driver

world population 7 600 000 000 food 2.8 kg/(cap d) energy 21 000 kWh/(cap a) materials ca. 0.9 kg/(cap d) fossil resources 5.6 kg/(cap d) land area agricultural: 7 000 m2/cap 3 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 variant: w o rl d p o p u la ti o n i n b ill io n year low medium high to d a y 95% interval

future development of world population

source: United Nations

World Population Prospect 2019 Revision

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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 7 8 9 10 11 12 w o rld p o p u la tio n 2 0 5 0 in b illio n year of publication high variant medium variant low va riant 11.62 billion in 2050

development of UN-WPP prediction for 2050

5 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 e x p e c te d d e v e lo p m e n t to d a y w o rl d p o p u la ti o n i n b ill io n year uppe r lim it 11.62 billion in 2050 varian t:high medium low

what is to be expected

6

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future development of world population

7 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 e x p e c te d d e v e lo p m e n t to d a y w o rl d p o p u la ti o n i n b ill io n year uppe r lim it 11.62 billion in 2050 Club of Rome IPCC SR1.5 EU varian t:high medium low

modelling approach

 not an IAM (integrated assessment model)  based on simple balances:

 influence of individual parameters directly visible  main drivers easy to realize

negative influence of too detailed models:

H. Hasse, 2003: Thermodynamics of Reactive Separations. in: K. Sundmacher, A. Kienle (Eds):

Reactive Distillation. Status and Future Directions. Wiley-VCH, Weinheim

world population × demand per person required land area =

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19600 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 500 1000 1500 2000 overall - sev en major cro ps overall veget al prim ary pr oducts s p e c if ic p ro d u c ti v it y i n k c a l / (m 2 a ) year seve n majo r cro ps

land-area specific agrigultural productivity

9

seven major crops:

• barley • corn • oil palm • rice • soybeans • sugar cane • wheat 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 a) biomaterials combustion pasture plant-based food forests meadows and pasture la n d a re a m 2 /c a p year arable land feed remaining forest

land-area: high pop. variant

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0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 h ig h U N p o p u la ti o n p ro s p e c t pasture feed +10%, more bio-diversity 20% reforestation +15%, ecological farming bio-materials bio-energy la n d -a re a d e m a n d i n m 2 p e r p e rs o n plant-based food 2050 available agricultural land area: m e d iu m U N p o p u la ti o n p ro s p e c t

land-area utilization in 2050

11

options for bio-based chemicals 2050

gen feedstock intermediates radius

km fi rs t g e n e ra ti o n sugar beet sugar or ethanol + CO2 10.4 ethanol 14.6 ethylene 18.7 sugar cane sugar or ethanol + CO2 7.5

ethanol 10.5 corn sugar or ethanol + CO2 13.4 ethanol 18.7 wheat sugar or ethanol + CO2 17.5 ethanol 24.5 oil palm plant oil 11.4 rape seed plant oil 30.1

s

e

c

o

n

d miscanthus/reeds sugar or ethanol + CO2 5.7

ethanol 7.9

wood sugar or ethanol + CO2 14.8 ethanol 20.7 th ir d corn straw sugar or ethanol + CO2 20.1 ethanol 28.2 wheat straw sugar or ethanol + CO2 23.2

0 500 1000 1500 area in m2/cap

goal

ranges:

maximum national and world average productivity projected for 2050 color:

■technically realized

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bio- vs. CO

2

-economy in Europe

utilize CO2from point source

methane 1285 € / tC

methanol 970 € / tC

utilize CO2from air

methane 1800 € / tC

methanol 1480 € / tC

starch from wheat 560 € / tC

crude oil ≈ 376 € / tC

13

conclusion

14

bio-based chemistry:

cheaper, developed technologycompetition for land area

question of generations

third generation not sufficient

second generation: complex processesfirst generation:

simpler and established processessynergy with food production

CO2-based chemistry:

more expensive, new processesno fertile land area required

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15

Choices:

A. CO2-based chemistry

significant economic & technological risks for our future

B. bio-based chemistry, conventional

more people undernourishedcut down forests

C. bio-based chemistry, vegan, 2 children per family

cheap, developed, enough space for ecology

You choose with your daily choices!

Bio-Economy: Chances,

Challenges, and Perspective of

the System as a Whole

Andreas Pfennig

Products, Environment, and Processes (PEPs) Department of Chemical Engineering

Université de Liège

www.chemeng.uliege.be/pfennig andreas.pfennig@uliege.be

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