progress was made
in the negotiating process between the Taliban and the
government
63. See the summary on Afghanistan in chapter 3 (Peace processes).
South Asia
In 2015, the level of violence in Afghanistan was the worst since the Taliban were ousted from power in 2001. In the first six months alone, the number of civilian casualties equalled the figure recorded in 2014. The UN estimated that over half of all Afghan districts were at risk of either high or extreme violence. The Taliban made territorial gains. The most significant took place in August, when they captured the capital of Kunduz province, the first time the group had held an Afghan city since
2001. The Afghan Armed Forces showed themselves unable to contain a well-trained and well-armed insurgency that was more motivated than the soldiers and the police, whose ranks were depleted by high numbers of desertions. International forces helped the Afghans on numerous occasions, especially with aerial bombardments. In fact, US President Barack Obama halted the withdrawal of American military forces, announcing that troops would stay in the country until
2017. In previous years, the winter meant a pause in the insurgency’s campaigns, which resumed activity in the spring, but this year the violence did not stop.
Moreover, a large number of foreign fighters joined the local insurgency. According to the minister of the Interior, these included more than 7,000 fighters, mostly Uzbeks and Pakistanis. The Islamic State (ISIS, which is known as ISIS-K in the province of Khorasan) became established in several territories, especially in Nangarhar, but also Zabul, Kunduz, Helmand and Logar. The ranks of ISIS-K were largely boosted by insurgents crossing from Pakistan’s tribal areas, after Operation Zarb-e Azb and due to internal divisions in the Taliban movement following disagreement among its leaders regarding dialogue with the Afghan government. Nevertheless, the Taliban’s territorial gains and the rise of ISIS were also the result of institutional weakness.
The political crisis worsened amidst division by the creation of Afghanistan’s national unity government, formed with two opposing leaders, Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah. Progress on electoral reform was on hold due to the parties’ inability to agree on many state affairs, which resulted in the postponement of the parliamentary elections scheduled for May. President Ghani also received opposition from Parliament and several institutions (including the National Directorate of Security intelligence agency, whose director resigned in December) after reaching out to Pakistan and sharing details with it regarding the peace process with the Taliban. In addition to other bilateral agreements, a memorandum of understanding was signed between both intelligence agencies and Afghanistan agreed to send its cadets to Pakistan for training. After several rounds of meetings between representatives of the
High Peace Council and the Taliban in different countries, the first official day of dialogue between the Afghan government and the insurgency took place in Murree (Pakistan) in early July.
However, the announcement of the death of Taliban leader Mullah Omar on 30 July (he died in April 2013, but his death was not officially announced until July 2015) divided the Taliban among those who wanted his successor to be the acting leader, Mullah Akhtar Mansoor, and those who opposed him and the dialogue. As a result, the second round of talks scheduled for 31 July was cancelled. The process was postponed until Ashraf Ghani and Nawaz Sharif met at the UN climate summit in Paris, with the mediation of British Prime Minister David Cameron. After the Heart of Asia conference (Istanbul Process) in Islamabad in December, Ghani and Sharif agreed to resume talks with China and the US, but without the Taliban.63
Violence dropped considerably in the state of Assam compared to the previous year, as a result of which it was no longer considered as an active armed conflict.
Fifty-nine people have been killed in the state as a result of the hostilities since 1983. According to the body count kept by the South Asia Terrorism Portal, 2015 was the year with the least fatalities since 1992, followed by 2012, when 91 deaths linked to the armed conflict were reported. Throughout the year, fighting remained sporadic between Indian security forces and various insurgent groups operating in the state.
This trend was driven mainly by the reduction in the number of NDFB (S) insurgents, as the security forces stepped up their operations following the massacre of the Adivasi population perpetrated in December 2014, which significantly thinned the group’s ranks.
The security forces made dozens of arrests and several insurgents were killed in raids and clashes, which seriously impacted the group’s operational capacity.
Year-long efforts to cripple the NDFB (S) intensified in the first quarter, when security forces arrested 70 of its 190 members and several insurgents were killed in clashes with them. Another armed group active in the state, the ULFA(I) faction, which is opposed to peace talks, was also weakened due to the loss of support of the NSCN-K after the ceasefire agreement between the NSCN-K and the government was broken in March.
The Naga group had taken advantage of the ceasefire situation to lend significant support to the Assamese group to obtain supplies. The number of bomb attacks in the state also fell considerably. All this, coupled with progress in the peace talks with the pro-negotiations faction of the ULFA, led to the reduction of violence
India (Assam)
Start: 1983
Type: Self-government, Identity Internationalised internal
Main parties: Government, ULFA, ULFA(I), NDFB, NDFB(S) KPLT, KLO, MULTA, HUM
Intensity: 1
Trend: End
Summary:
The armed opposition group the ULFA emerged in 1979 with the aim of liberating the state of Assam from Indian colonisation and establishing a sovereign State. The demographic transformations the state underwent after the partition of the Indian subcontinent, with the arrival of two million people from Bangladesh, are the source of the demand from the population of ethnic Assamese origin for recognition of their cultural and civil rights and the establishment of an independent State. During the 1980s and 1990s there were various escalations of violence and failed attempts at negotiation. A peace process began in 2005, leading to a reduction in violence, but this process was interrupted in 2006, giving rise to a new escalation of the conflict. Meanwhile, during the eighties, armed groups of Bodo origin, such as the NDFB, emerged demanding recognition of their identity against the majority Assamese population. Since 2011 there has been a significant reduction in violence and numerous armed groups have laid down their arms or began talks with the government.
in the state. However, despite the drop in violence, civilians continued to suffer from the consequences of the conflict. Police reports revealed that in the last three years, as many as 5,000 children have disappeared in the state, victims of human trafficking networks. Most of them had been internally displaced by violence and natural disasters and most were girls. Violence had a significant impact in terms of forced displacement. As a result of intercommunity violence in December 2014, 300,000 people were forcibly displaced, 90,000 of which remained living in temporary camps, unable to return to their homes. According to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC), there were 113,000 internally displaced persons in the state of Assam, which makes it the Indian state with the second-largest number of displaced people after Jammu and Kashmir.
India (CPI-M)
Start: 1967
Type: System
Internal
Main parties: Government, CPI-M (Naxalites)
Intensity: 1
Trend: ↓
Summary:
The armed conflict in which the Indian government confronts the armed Maoist group the CPI-M (known as the Naxalites, in honour of the town where the movement was created) affects many states in India. The CPI-M emerged in West Bengal at the end of the sixties with demands relating to the eradication of the land ownership system, as well as strong criticism of the system of parliamentary democracy, which is considered as a colonial legacy. Since then, armed activity has been constant and it has been accompanied by the establishment of parallel systems of government in the areas under its control, which are basically rural ones.
Military operations against this group, considered by the Indian government as terrorists, have been constant. In 2004, a negotiation process began which ended in failure.
In the following years there was an escalation of violence that led the government to label the conflict as the main threat to national security. Since 2011 there has been a significant reduction in hostilities.
The armed conflict pitting the Indian security forces against the Naxalite insurgency in different states of the country remained active throughout the year, though a slight reduction in fatalities was reported compared to the previous year. According to figures compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal, 251 deaths were accounted for as a result of the armed conflict. This fell in line with the trend reported in recent years, confirming that there has been a gradual reduction in the number of casualties since 2010, when the highest number of deaths in the last decade was reported with 1,180. Since then, the number has been reduced to almost one fifth. The state most affected by violence was Chhattisgarh, where 120 people died as a result of the conflict, followed by Jharkhand with 58, Odisha with 35 and Maharashtra with 17. In fact, while a decrease in violence was reported in the country, the
India (Jammu and Kashmir)
Start: 1989
Type: Self-government, Identity Internationalised internal
Main parties: Governments, JKLF, Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), Hizb-ul-Mujahideen, All Parties Hurriyat Conference, United Jihad Council
Intensity: 1
Trend: =
Summary:
The armed conflict in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir has its origin in the dispute over the region of Kashmir which, since the independence and division of India and Pakistan, has confronted both states. On three occasions (1947 to 1948; 1965 and 1971) these countries had suffered from
armed conflicts, with both of them claiming sovereignty over the region, divided between India, Pakistan and China. The armed conflict between India and Pakistan in 1947 gave rise to the current division and creation of a de facto border between both countries. Since 1989, the armed conflict has been moved to the interior of the state of Jammu and Kashmir, where a whole host of rebel groups, in favour of the complete independence of the state or unconditional adhesion to Pakistan, confront the Indian security forces.
Since the beginning of the peace process between India and Pakistan in 2004, there has been a considerable reduction in the violence, although the armed groups remain active.
64. The Ikhwan militia was formed by former insurgents. At first, they joined the force as Indian Army informants in exchange for financial compensation and protection. Around 1994, they began to bear arms alongside the Army.
state of Chhattisgarh showed an escalation in clashes and a slightly higher body count than in 2014, which indicates that the armed conflict could be entering a phase of geographical concentration. Insurgents and security forces engaged in periodic clashes throughout the year, causing both military and civilian casualties.
Chhattisgarh was the scene of some of the worst attacks.
In April, a Maoist ambush in the district of Sukma killed seven policemen. In May, the insurgency kidnapped 250 people shortly before Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the district of Dantewada (one of the epicentres of the conflict) to sign economic agreements with major companies. One hostage was killed and the rest were released after the victim was accused of promoting infrastructure that the insurgency opposes.
Another major incident took place in the state of Odisha in September, when the Naxalite commander Sonadhar was killed before clashes with security forces.
Sonadhar was accused of being responsible for an event that took place in 2013, when a convoy of the Indian National Congress Party in Chhattisgarh was attacked by Naxalites, killing 28 people, including one of the main party leaders in the state, Mahendra Karma. He had been one of the founders of Salwa Judum, a civilian counter-insurgent militia accused of serious violations of human rights and dismantled in 2011 after it was declared illegal and unconstitutional by the Supreme Court. The paramilitary organisation had also been accused of arming hundreds of young people from the poorest areas of the state to carry out counter-insurgency operations.
However, coinciding with Modi’s trip to Dantewada in May, one of Mahenda Karma’s sons announced the reorganisation of Salwa Judum. Different human rights organisations denounced that the reconstitution of the organisation was linked to the recent government’s deals with large companies to launch economic projects in the state of Chhattisgarh, as happened when the organisation was created a decade before.
According to the body count kept by the South Asia Terrorism Portal, violence in Kashmir killed 174 people in 2015, of which 20 were civilians, 41 were members of the security forces and 113 were insurgents. One of the most serious episodes occurred in August, when an exchange of fire between both border forces in Sialkot ended with three people dead and 16 wounded on the Indian side, and eight Pakistanis dead and 47 wounded.
The climate of violence worsened with statements by some Indian politicians from the ruling party (BJP) that sparked protests and called for strikes. After Mufti Mohammed Sayeed came to power as minister of Kashmir (as a member of the PDP party, which ruled in alliance with the BJP), the government decided to release political prisoners who were not involved in criminal activities.
However, the release of Masarat Alam Bhat (All Parties Hurriyat Conference, APHC) in March was rejected by the BJP, which prompted the government to declare that it would not release any other prisoner. In April, Minister Rajnath Singh speculated about abrogating Article 370, which grants special status to Kashmir. A month later, Indian Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar said it was a pity that the Indian soldiers had died fighting the insurgency and that terrorists had to be used to fight terrorists. The minister was referring to the pro-government paramilitary militia Ikhwan, whose impunity spread terror among the population in the 1990s.64 More than a dozen former insurgents were victims of targeted killings, especially in Sopore. It was unclear who was behind these crimes, but the victims were mostly former members of Hizb-ul Mujahideen. In September, the High Court of Jammu ordered the police to impose a law prohibiting the slaughter of cattle and the sale and consumption of cow flesh (which has not been applied for decades in Kashmir) shortly before the celebration of the Muslim festival of sacrifice (Eid ul-Adha). Although the Supreme Court suspended the decree, the Eid was celebrated amidst mass protests. In response, the government blocked the Internet for three days and arrested several separatist leaders.
Pakistan also helped to strain the atmosphere with declarations considered provocative by the Indian government. In February, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif reiterated his support for the right to self-determination