ElleN .14/INR/84

26

Trends in ^e'eITlent ConSurnpGIOn

The ye~r

1958

stands OD.t as a landInarl< in the consump~~on

trend

of the East .iifricarl 3ub-I'eg'ion. Gonf3·:).lnJ~tionrose from some 400,000 tons in

1948

to ne rly

1.5

million tons in 1958~ but fell constantly in the next five years to reach about 1 million tons in

1963.

^ThGse and oth:Jr d2ta co:c.c,.r-nirlg the absolute level in the

consumption of' cement are provided in

Ta~lEl

^V.

1I

Th.e share of the su"J-region in total African cons'llin~ption

also followed. the trend referred to above. Although thi$ share

in-crease~ froin abou~ .97~ to a-bout 16~c between

1948

an~

1958, .

it neverthe~

lessfel~ ^bach: to _l07/~. bY.1963. In this context it would be ..~ppropriat~, to P9te ,.t11at the; shares of the two sut,-reg~j.on~^'j nanlely⁹ No~t:t and

Southern Africa~ vlhich aCC011nt fer over 5~~ of total african consu.rllp~

tion, eitIler conti11ued to rise Ol~ to stand at the same level subsequent

to 1958.

630

The sub-reg'ion^fs consumption pattern is V8.r'y se11siti ve to what takes pla.ce in I~enya ani i:tllOdesia. l'tL8 sub-regional consumption trend noted abo e reflects ver;l closely- tile rapid declines in consump-tions that occured after

1958

in Kenya and Rhodesia, and to a lesser extent in Uganda. Ot11srwise^j t118 rernainin2; cou~ntries have , with some rela"Gively minor e~=certiol~S') contin'ued aftEr

1958

the general growths in con.suluptions ths"t had characterised the trend up to

1958.

In R110desia a.nd iJB.lnbi:l₉ consuulption betv~een

1955-1958

was infll1enced to a larri:)e e}~tent b~l the proi'~)reL:.s of tl'1e Kariba dalu project.

Deluand Tose 'by about 300~000 tons in the span of three years. Sub-sequent to the c0i11pl tion of 'vhe darn, demand declineci. rapidl~y. This trend

was further

agoravated a receSSiO!l in ur-oan building activity.

In the period

1958-1963

~ denland fell by a.pproY~rl1ately400,000 tons.

~fuilst the immediate prospects in Rhodesia for a reoovery in demand a are not all too bri , in 2sam-bia₉ 1'lowever₉ there are strong signs that consUlnption, vl11ic11 arlyT;Jay had not fallen cli.sasGerously si11ce

1958,

E/CIJ.14/I~JR/84

Pa~e

27

lilould inCT8ase r·2.:plCLl.~Y in the'-l1e}~t"fe~Tyea::cs. In fact the Guilding' and constrh-ction targets set.

immediate expansion of tile cernent indllstr~yo _....

--

...-~_.--

--_....----

^...

.65/.,··· ·~·_~-.C·(yns··:.i.rH~_;·t'io11 .i:n I(enya cl0·u'ble~'" in. 'fli'e riod

1948-19559

0Ut

'''Il\lGtuatedat~~-'a~n~~l consurnj'~~on

^of

^lS-Q

9DOO

tonS--i:f;-'the'i~~;i~-d---'---·'.i~-§5~1:·9'6G·.·" T118'realt'er

i t declined constc,ntlyto" reBeL a. le'vel of less than 120,000 tons in

1963

in.the wa~e of a continuous reduction in

recession has Deell passed9 and thc.t as a resul·t in

ar thDt t~he 80b in

strllents in the 1>l-lb

41ic s.-,ctOI'7 there will ill the near future be rene1Te^J..

66.

in due to re3 _buildin~ activiY9 on also

fell in in re~J2nt =r8aTs to rlsach ju~)t over 70,000 tons in

1963.

The .latest trends, however, indica~e a recov8I7 in the buildln_b and construction sector. No marked growth has chara~terisedconsumption

.': ...' ....

in. Tanzania. In the eriod·19:.50-1963₉ conslL.lption fl'uct'uated around

GCir a1 so shovJeCi~ S:iIllilE.r trend tern since

1951

where consu~~tion &180 fluctuated

annW11. By I~ontrast⁹ 8.1tho the cOrl;3umrtion of' )i;thiol~:ia is relati vely sI!1al1₉ yet 'cne trend in consulTl}-)tion bet1^Alee11

1948

ncl

1962

^'0JaS con-sistently one of growth. From a luvel of co of just· v·ver

...'~....:-.."." •...c A-.'''' .,.. .•

1 0!.~9?Q.

...

~9.n.s...i.J;l~.l9,42:·,· ·it-_·1...·oSe-·"t;c" 0 \T8r '70 ,000 toDS in 1963. ii. sirnilar ti:u.s.

yeClrs £1uct·utc:.ti011S in COnSl:LL:.l-.tiofl 112ve 'lJeen

of b'lli1 ctl1d

construction 2. ·t;ivity of past .~:'lears 11od.ld in all li~;':81~ylloodcontin·u>3.

In this context 9 it is ap. ropri te t.o 11ote' th2t D.n e.:x.'tensi~Je r·ublic 'ouilding ^prOo^{I'SD1L.18 i :::lso~ r\lanned for} Tanzani

S1lillIl1ari s tIle a;~o\e ooservstions ^.ll'l conSllillI;tio11 trends, Table 4!1 shows the annual T2tBS 01

as COlllruted on the basis of the

1I

^See l~nnex I.

tao in

i11 conSW111,t countries Taole

W:

^The

_gro'i,~h

^rate-s-·

E/ Cl'J

.14/

IIJR/

84

P~<ze ,28;

.1 of

CO~li~'C-Llnded J~nnual RateE of GrOidth

are c,olE:~,_u_ted ior thTeeperiod.s, chosen fa::', tl:leirsigl1ificance in, COnSll.H1ption tTends. The fiTst period₉ ch is between 1948-1958 is significant in that it represents the period during which cement con-SUJ1J.J.Jtion increased apI_·recia:Jl;v anacoY1staJ1t1y for' alLi6st---all tb.8 coun-tries of t118 sU-b-reg·ion. Durine) this

growth tOOK: 1)1

Il1'a

xi

^rnurrl

E/CI:.14/II~R/84 Page

29

significantly includes the five years after

1958

when considerable dec.lines in consum~ptionsv.jerenoted. The rate of gro,Tiltll for tllis de-cade would,.conse(~uentlybe lower than che -best tb.at was registered in th.e.flrs,t period. Finally,' the rate of g;roVJth over the "tv-hole period, of 1948~1963 has also' been COffil)ut·ed for purposes of cornparison.

68.

It would -be noted that while t11e an:nual rate of growth -~'las

13.8%

for tlle period

1948-1958 ,

i t v,Tas only 25:' i11 the period

1953-1963.

Fo-r

l~fric,a as .awI101e, the corresponding fig"ures were 8.1'7⁰ and

4.

07~ respect-ively, while for Europe they w·ere

9.17£

and _7.5~" respectively. There has. evidently been a g'eneral slowing dOv'J11 in t'he annusl rates of growt~n of c~rnent con,SUIIlption in total Africo, duril1.'g' 't118 tvJO periods under consideration?"'··but still, tlle decline in the _g'ro-~lth rate of the East African Sub-reg'ion's celnent consu.fili:tion cen -be considered as signl'"

ficantly sharp.

6~. The highest rates' of ;rowth in 11 the three periods chosen were

1!q~!j:~'Ste,red by Ethio1)ia, BOlYlalia and ~laurit ius9 ar1d in the period

1948-1958

^by the forn1er Federation of Rhodesia 2nd Nyasaland? Kenya a-.d Uganda. On the con~r~ry, the latter group of countries registered rates of decreBse, in the Deriod

1953-1963.'

70.

In terins of j;Jer capita COl1.SUli1ptionj the trend b~y country is indicated in Table

VIlZ

Again, for the sulJ-re,';SioY:i? the year

1958

represented the peal~ year. :v1J.ile Eer celpi ta conSUL1_~ti011 rose from

8

to

23

kg. i11 the period

1948-1958,

i t _~leclirled s e-eadily a:{'terwards to reaq,h

15

^l.<:g'. The I)er capita COnSUInlJtio11 of Africa as a ~'lhole ~ 11ovl8ver, continued to rise over the whole ~eriod of

1948-i963.

71.

The ratio of the -per capita consuLllption of t11e sub-region in relation to tile av-era ,e for Africa is not insi~~nificant. Although 'the popu12tion of ~ne sub-reg'ioY1 is just over one fourth of that of Africa, nevertheless₉ the per cal'ita consurn)tion acco'unts for no less than

40%'

at

its

Ibwest. ~n fact? this ratio has been steadily increasing~to reach its _peal~'of o'ver 607~ in

1958.

I'er capita consurnption is very

Dans le document The cement and allied industries in the East African Sub-Region (Page 29-32)