1
and the ReProSpect
Interactive Quantitative module
for Agriculture
Paris, 03 June 2008
Contact : bruno.dorin@cirad.fr
2
Part I
Basic Fact Sheet
(as on May 2008)
1. The Ambition
2. The Account Book
3. The Unit of Account
4. The Items
5. The Geographical Coverage
6. The Models for Animal Productions
7. An Interactive-Simulating Interface
3
n
The ambition
Having a quantitative tools for :
1. Revisiting the past
(quick and synthesized
multi-scales and multi-subjects scans)
reflected / summarized into
few quantitative parameters
Past
- 45 years
(1960 => 2005)
Future
+ 45 years
(2005 => 2050)
S1
S2
.../…
...from scenarios descriptions
(own or external qualitative conjectures)
Global
consistency ?
(equilibrium between
biomass uses & resources…)
Impact of variants ?
(populations, composition of diets…)
Implications ?
(international trade, GHG sink/emissions
water & energy consumptions…)
(populations, land uses,
productivities, diets, non-food uses…)
2. Debating the future
4
o
The account book
(from national to global)
with some levels of PRODUCTIVITY
some Food
PRODUCTION
some Food
CONSUMPTION
Food Biomass RESOURCES
Food Biomass USES
some human POPULATIONS
with some levels of FOOD intakes
some Imports/Exports
some Wastes
some Animal Feed
…/…
some environmental
impacts
some needs
+/- satisfied
some Non-Food
productions/potentials
(VANA)
Ruraux Urbains…some land & aquatic SPACES
Forests, …pastures, crops… Oceans… rivers
in calories - vegetal - animal - aquatic per hectare
some Non-Food Uses
some co-products
some “free” spaces
in calories - vegetal - animal - aquatic per capita
5
127
p
The unit of account
Tonnes
(or m
3)
of DM in specific cases
FOOD CALORIES
(or equivalent, for oilcakes, molasses…)
Balance sheets in :
Broken up into Carbohydrates
(4 kcal/g)
Proteins
(4 kcal/g)
Fats
(9 kcal/g)
Past only
(1961-2003)
Fibers, rubber…
Crop “residues”…
Forages…
Wood
(fuel or industrial)
127
q
The items
Other items
(non-food…)
Foodstuffs & their by-products
(oilcakes… wools, leathers…)
120 product lines of Faostat1
(Commodity Balances)
re-computed into 5 categories
(after conversion into calories)
:
Cereals : wheat, rice, barley, maize…
Sugar crops : sugarcane, sugar beat…
Pulses : beans, peas…
Oilseeds : soybean, groundnut, coconut…
Roots & tubers : cassava, potato…
Fruits & vegetables : apple, onion…
Stimulants : cocoa, coffee, alcohol…
PLANTS
RUMINANT Animals
Meats : bovines, goat, mutton…
Milk, Butter, Animal fats…
MONOGASTRIC Animals
Meats : poultry, pig…
Eggs…
FRESHWATER items (Fishes…)
MARINE items
Demersal & Pelagic fishes… Fats…
FIBRES (cotton, jute…)
FOREST
Fuel wood
Industrial wood…
OTHER (tobacco, rubber…)
7
r
The geographical coverage
156 entities
(on 246 “countries” since 1961)
=> 99% land / population
(many islands and few other too badly-informed area -like Afghanistan- set aside…)
with an instantaneous aggregating system into various “regions”
12 options currently available :
- total WORLD
- developed / developing countries
- the 6 MEA regions
- …/…
- the 87 regions of the GTPA6 model
Data imported, checked & recomputed until today
(via the SAS software) :
3000 items
(areas, populations, productions, imports/exports…)
x 42 years
(1961-2003) or more
x 246 countries
~ 30 millions values
Data
base
s
Stru
c
turing
an
d C
odin
g
Sy
stem
(e
xc
lu
di
ng
Mo
de
lP
ro
d
A
ni
)
BASIS for
- traceability of all computations
- quasi-immediate updating when new data
Synthesizing, interlinking,
visualizing millions
of past data
Live simulations
and collective debate
of scenarios (Inputs & Outputs)
Making models
(functions of animal/vegetal
productions…)
Feeding/Enriching
models of economic equilibrium
9
s
The models for animal productions
2 separated & interlinked categories of animal productions :
- Prod_Rumi (Gkcal)
= f (x1,x2, x3…, Prod_Mono)
- Prod_Mono (Gkcal)
= f (x1,x2, x3…, Prod_Rumi)
Key explaining factors (x1, x2, x3…) :
- Feed of vegetal origin (Gkcal)
- Feed of animal origin (Gkcal)
- Pasture area (1,000 ha)
- Agricultural active population (1,000 persons)
- Tractors (units)
Several models obtained :
- linear / quadratic
- CalTot / CalPro
(unit for Production unit, unit for Feed…)
- with/without Dummies
(region, year)
- with/without Trend
(“technical progress”)
- region-based
(MEA regions)
or type-based
(agricultural/industrial, extensive/intensive…)
- …/…
10
Results :
- replicate very-well past 40-year of national/regional/global animal productions
- “on-line” tests and modeling
(choice of model, change of parameters/coefficients, simulations…)
11
Selection
of the Param FIELD
and of the REGION
Options
for displaying
other data
in the field
(past only)
Definition/Recording of NEW PARAM
for a Scenario, a Region and a Year (2010 => 2050)
Display of
the PARAM data
in the selected field
and Region
t
An Interactive Tool
(Microsoft Access interface )
Display
and/or Export
of ad-hoc tables
( XLS format )
0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 4 000 4 500 196119641967197019731976197919821985198819911994199720002003 Cons om mation alimentaire (kcal / jour / ha
b)
Lipides P ro téines Glucides
12
…and a general table to balance (stepwise)
13
Part II
From past trends
(1961-2003)
to scenarios (2050)
1. From Average World Increases…
2. …to Large Regional Disparities
3. From a 2003 Balance Sheet
4. …to Few Questions for 2050
The world population doubled
0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 7 000 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 H a b ita n ts ( m illio n ) Urbains Autres ruraux Actifs agricoles 0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 4 000 4 500 C ons om mat ion al im ent a ir e ( k c a l / jo ur / hab ) Eaux marines Eaux douces Monogastriques Ruminants Végétaux
Cultivated area Ê
(+13%)
Pasture area Ê
(+11%)
Land productivity Ê
(+123%)
Labour productivity Ê
(+53%)
0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000 0 1 0=pluvial 1=pluvial et ou irrigué x 0 1 (mS) 2 (MS) 3 (S) 4 (VS) 0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 S urf a ce ( m illio ns d 'he c ta re s) EAUX AUTRES FORÊTS PÂTURES - vana CULTURES - irriguéesn
From average world increases
(1961-2003)
The world apparent food supply
increased from 2450 to 3010 kcal/c/d
15
Highest land productivity
in ASIA
Labour productivity (Kcal / Day / Worker)
0 50 000 100 000 150 000 200 000 250 000 300 000 350 000 400 000 450 000 1960 19651970 19751980 19851990 19952000 2005 k c al / da y OECD SSA FSU A sia LA M M ENA 0 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 19601965197019751980 19851990199520002005 kca l / d a y OECD SSA FSU A sia LA M M ENA
o
…to regional disparities
A labour productivity boom
in OECD
Land productivity (Kcal / Day / Ha)
0 5 10 15 20 25 196019651970197519801985 1990199520002005 he c tar es OECD SSA FSU A sia LA M M ENA
Land availability (Cultivated Ha / Worker)
Note : 10 000 kcal = ~ 2.4 kg of soybean ~ 2.8 kg of rice milled ~ 2.9 kg of pea ~ 3.0 kg of wheat ~ 15.0 kg of potato ~ 58.8 kg of tomato
Increasing food trade…
Balance of vegetal food trade (Export – Import)
-1 000
-500
0
500
1 000
1 500
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
G
k
c
a
l /
day
OCDE SSA FSU A sia LA M M ENA17
But large disparities between regional apparent food availabilities
0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 4 000 4 500 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 C ons om m a tion al im ent ai re ( k c a l / jo u r / h a b ) Eaux marines Eaux douces Monogastriques Ruminants Végétaux 0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 4 000 4 500 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 C ons o m m a tion al im ent ai re ( k c a l / jo ur / hab ) Eaux marines Eaux douces Monogastriques Ruminants Végétaux
Sub-Saharan Africa
OECD
Animal proteins :
12 on 60 g / day (20%)
Animal fats :
10 on 48 g / jour (20%)
Animal proteins :
71 g / day on 125 (60%)
Animal fats :
89 g / day on 165 (55%)
18
0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 7 000 8 000 9 000 10 000 11 000 12 000 13 000 14 000 15 000 16 000 17 000 18 000 19 000 20 000 21 000 22 000 23 000 24 000 25 000 Gkcal / day P U P U P U P U P U P U P U P U P U P U P U P U U PProduction of foodstuff s Uses of f oodstuf fs Plants - ow . non-food - ow . seed - ow . w aste Ruminants & big herbivores Monogastrics & small ruminants - ow . Feed - ow . Feedp
From a 2003 balance sheet…
LAM
23% of forests (922 Mha) 16% of pastures (553 Mha) 11% of cultivated land (164 Mha) 25% of arable lands (984 Mha) 3% of farmers (43 M) 9% of the population (538 M)
OECD
25% of forests (981 Mha) 22% of pastures (736 Mha) 27% of cultivated land (416 Mha) 23% of arable lands (900 Mha) 2% of farmers (22 M) 16% of the population (987 M)
SSA
16% of forests (634 Mha) 24% of pastures (827 Mha) 13% of cultivated land (204 Mha) 26% of arable lands (1054 Mha) 15% of farmers (195 M) 11% of the population (714 M)
MENA
1% of forests (35 Mha) 10% of pastures (337 Mha) 6% of cultivated land (90 Mha) 2% of arable lands (92 Mha) 3% of farmers (44 M) 6% of the population (400 M)
FSU
21% of forests (843 Mha) 11% of pastures (360 Mha) 13% of cultivated land (202 Mha) 10% of arable lands (409 Mha) 1% of farmers (20 M) 4% of the population (279 M)
ASIA
13% of forests (533 Mha) 17% of pastures (565 Mha) 30% of cultivated land (462 Mha) 14% of arable lands (538 Mha) 76% of farmers (1014 M) 53% of the population (3330 M)
