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Implications of the substantial new programme of action for the 1980s for the Least Developed Countries for growth and development in the African Least Developed Countries

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lit

v, NATIONS UNIES

CONSEIL ECONOMIQUE ET SOCIAL

Distr.

LIMITED

E/ECA/LDCs.2/3

March 24 1982 Original: ENGLISH

ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR AFRICA Meeting of the Intergovernmental

Committee of Experts of African Least Developed Countries

Tripoli, Libyan Arab Jamahiriya 15-17 April 1982

ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR AFRICA Second Meeting of the Conference of

Ministers of African Least Developed Countries

Tripoli, Libyan Arab Jamahiriya 26-27 April 1982

IMPLICATIONS OF THE SUBSTANTIAL NEW PROGRAMME OF

ACTION FOR THE 1980s FOR THE LEAST DEVELOPED

COUNTRIES FOR GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFRICAN LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

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E/ECA/LDCs.2/3

CONTENTS

Title Paragraph

I. INTRODUCTION 1 - 3

II. GENERAL SITUATION AND NATIONAL MEASURES 4-16 III. INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT MEASURES 17 - 39 IV. ARRANGEMENTS FOR IMPLEMENTATION, FOLLOW-UP

AND MONITORING 40 - 48

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E/ECA/LDCso2/3

I. INTRODUCTION

1. When the Substantial New Programme of Action for the 1980s for the Least

Developed Countries (SNPA) was first conceived by the developing counties at the Ministerial Meeting of the Group of 77 held in Arusha in February 1979 and outlined in UNCTAD resolution 122(v), it was thought that a programme of

sufficient size and intensity was needed to enable the least developed countries - the poorest and weakest countries in the world - to achiove the structural

transformations which are necessary for their sustained and self-reliant development. The United Nations Conference on the Least Developed Countries which was convened in Paris from 1 to 14 September I98I to finalize, adopt and support the programme was accordingly preceded by a detailed preparatory process which involved a thorough analysis "by the international community, of the problems, needs and proposals of each least developed country. The objective of the preparation was to ensure that SNPA, when finally adopted, would encompass the needs and problems of the least developed countries as conceived by them as well as-proposals for the solution of these

problems. Each least developed country prepared a detailed country presentation in which major priority projects and programmes were identified and costed.

These presentations were jointly reviewed with aid partners at individual review meetings. UNCTAD1s inter-governmental Group on the Least Developed Countries acted as the Preparatory Committee for the Conference in which capacity it held three sessions. At the regional level additional

preparations for the Conference included the first meeting of the Conference of Ministers of African Least Developed Countries held at Addis Ababa

from 27 to 36 July 198I and the Ministerial Meeting of States members of E3CAP and BCWA in Bangkok on 10 and 11 August 1981,' When the Conference was finally

convened it thus had a detailed and solid basis with which it could work.

2, These thorough preparations notwithstanding, the Paris Conference was marked by long and difficult negotiations. The document that was finally.., adopted by the Conference as SNPA like all documents of this nature was the result of a compromise between the aspirations of the developing countries, particularly the least developed among them, and what the aid partners could offer. The programme fell short of the expectations of the least developed countries in a number of areas. At the name time however, SNPA

has a lot of positive aspects not least among which is the opportunity it offers to the international community to focus attention on the problems

and needs of the least developed countries throughout the decade of

the 1980s. The' programme opens up significant possiblities to each least

developed country and it is important that its implementation be pursued

with vigour and possible monitored as closely as possible,,

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e/eCA/H)Cs.2/3

Page 2

3a This paper analyses some of the provisions of SNPA in the light of the objectives and needs of the African least developed countries as contained

in their country presentations'. Implications of SNPA for the choice of policies and strategies during the 1980s are identified and recommendations made

on means and ways by which the Afrioan least developed countries can derive maximum "benefits from the provisions of the Programme.

II. GENERAL SITUATION .AND NATIONAL MEASURES

4. Chapter I of SNPA analyses the general situation in the least developed countries and prescribes measures to be taken at the national level in line with the smain objectives of the Programme which are:

(a) To promote the structural changes necessary to overcome the least developed countries' extreme economic difficulties;

(b) To provide fully adequate and internationally acceptable minimum standards for the poor;

(c) To identify end support major investment opportunities and priorities;

(d) To mitigate as far as possible the adverse effects of natural disasters, 5. The analysis of the general situation and the measures recommended

encompasses albeit in a general way, the problems, priorities, and objectives of the least developed countries. The measures recommended at the national level are generally consistent with the provisions of the International Development Strategy for the Third United Nations Development Decade and

the Lagos Plan of Action, with regard to action required to achieve structural transformation and to eradicate mass poverty. The Programme should therefore be regarded as an extension of and a complement to these move all-embracing prescriptions for long—term development.

6. At the macro-level, SNPA aims at enabling each least developed

country to increase its national income substantially, even in approprl <

cases doubling it by 1990 as compared with the level reached in the late 1970s which would require an annual growth rate of 7.2 per cento To achieve this each least developed country must aim to progress towards and if possible surpass the 4 per cent annual growth target set for the agricultural sector in the International Development Strategy for the Third United Nations Development Decade. In manufacturing the least developed countries should aim at an average annual growth of output of 9 Pe^ cen"t or more. Domestic savings efforts should be enhanced.

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Page 3

1» It is significant to note that SNPA stipulates no specific target for the growth of GDP in the-least developed countries-as a group. The doubling of income try 1990 is °nly for some appropriate cases. Such a specific target would have served as a useful yardstick for assessing the success of the Programme in the individual countries. During the 1970s, the poorer countries tended to perform more poorly, which implies that the weakest least developed countries would have to aim at even higher rates of growth if any significant transformation of their economies is to take place.

8. Sectorally, high priority is given to the agricultural sector. The Programme notes that performance in the sector in the past two decades has been characterized by negative growth of per capita-', food and agricultural

output compounded "by rapid population growth, rural exodus, chronic food insecurity, etc. The majorbottle-necks are identified as extremely low productivity, inappropriate and insufficient techniques of production, weak agricultural support institutions, vulnerability to the threats of

desertification as well as the vagaries of nature and very limited irrigation facilities.

% In view of this situation it is recommended that particular attention should be given to increasing food production with a view to attaining greater self-sufficiency as soon as possible and achieving food security*

In this regard, SNPA calls for increased budgetary allocations to agriculture as well as to related activities such as livestock production, fisheries and forestry resources development the application of policies, especially on prices, which inter alia will provide incentives for production, and setting up mechanisms for the drawing up and implementation of the nec-essary programmes. Attention is also drai-jn to the need to expand acreage of

cultivable land, resolving the structural problems of land tenure, increasing productivity through conservation of soil, irrigation etc, development

of indigenous farming techniques, strengthening national research, manpower development and reduction of post-harvest losses,, Inte-grated rural development should also receive high priority with the emphasis on popular participation, increasing employment opportunities and raising productivity, improving social infrastructure in rural areas and policies for the role »f vomen

in rural development.

10o In the field of manufacturing SNPA recommends the acceleration of the role of growth from 4 per cent in the 1970s to 9 Pe^ cent or more yearly during the 1980s, According to SNPA, industrial programmes should aim at developing agro-based and agrc—support industries and on-the-Epot processing of raw materials; developing medium and light industries; encouraging and improving productivity in small-scale i\, " cottage industries; and encouraging the establishment of basic industries with indigeneous resources where possible

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E/ECA/LDCs.2/3 Page 4

11. Regarding human respources and social development, SNPA calls for the development, mobilization and effective participation of human resources in the development process, increased employment opportunities, improved health and nutrition standards, population policies and the development of proper human settlements-.

12. SNPA also pays particular attention to the development of energy resources and- for that purpose recommends the integration of a

comprehensive energy strategy in the least developed countries' programmes, implementation of the priority measures recommended in the Nairobi

Programme of Action on New and Renewable Sources of Ilhergy, transfer and adaptation of technology and enhanced support for research on

energy. —-

13. With respect to physical infrastructure, emphasis is placed on the ; development of basic structures to support all productive sectors and ' : essential social services, especially transport and communications, water, irrigation, power, storage, schools, etc.-.

14. SNPA also encourages the establishment of large transformational projects which although they are costly and have long lead times can pay :' dividends especially if undertaken at the subregional level. There is scope for such projects in comprehensive agricultural development,

irrigation, river basins development, energy, etc ■

15. In the field of foreign trade SNPA points to the need to increase export

earnings through increased production diversification of the commodity

structure and direction of trade including the cxapnsion of-trade among developing countries, and by securing remunerative prices. LDCs are urged to undertake studies that would make this feasible in addition

to developing an adequate local trade infrastructure.

16. Other measures recommended include the need to improve the

environment, assist transit trade of land-locked and island LDCs and to mobilize emergency assistance to countries affected by natural disasters.

J ;i * INTERNATIONAL • SUPPORT MEASURES

17. In order to enable the least developed countries achieve their

objectives and targets for the 1980s, SNPA recognizes that action

by the least developed countries at the national level must be complemented

try measures of support, both through increased financial resmirce transfers

and through policies and programmes affecting the modalities of assistance, technical assistance and transfer of technology, commercial policy measures and cc—operation among developing countries.

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E/ECA/LDCs.2/3 5

18. It is.on the question of financial resource transfers that SNPA

perhaps departed most from the aspirations of the least developed countries.

In their country presentations the least developed countries had estimated that their external financing requirements for the first half of the

1980s would "be 85 per cent higher in real terms than those for the

five-year period 1975-1979 which averaged $6,6 "billion at 1980 prices.

This represented an extra requirement of $5,7 "billion on average per year.

They had further estimated that by 1990 total concessional assistance to

them should rise to $24 "billion at I98O prices,,

19. At the Paris Conference the developing countries•sought arduously to get aid partners committed to the above targets. Most aid partners

were however unwilling to accept precise targets for aid flows in volume terms and within specific time—fromes„ The compromise text that was finally adopted was therefore unspecific and couched in most general It simply recognized that a substantial transfer of resources from the international community, particularly the developed countries, would be required to meet the objectives and targets for the decade. These resource transfers will be over and above the vigorous measures that will be adopted by the least developed countries themselves to mobilize domestic resources.- Within the framework of the Programme, therefore, all donors agreed

to make a special effort .to increase their transfers to the least developed countries. All donor countries reaffirmed their commitment to the target of 0.7 per cent of GNP for overv-all ODA flows as envisaged in the

International Development Strategy. Aid flows will increasingly be directed towards the least developed countries. "Specifically" says the text, "in this connexion most donors of official development assistance will devote in the coming years 0.15 per cent of their gross national product to the least developed countries,, Others will double thoir official development

assistance to the-.least developed countries in the same period". SNPA further

states that "taken together these efforts are likely to achieve, by 1985, a doubling of. ODA. to the least developed countries compared to the transfers to them during the last five years".

20. With no time frame given for the attainment of the 0,15 P°r cent of GNP target, the difficulty in explicitly identifying the individual countries that will aim at attaining the target as well as the failure.to establish targets for those donor countries that have already reached the 0,15 per oent target, it becomes extremely difficult to estimate with any reasonable degree of accuracy the quantum of.aid that will be available to the least developed countries under SNPA. Nevertheless, given the implications that the expected level of aid flows may have on the choice of policies and strategies in the least developed countries, an attempt was made at a very rough estimation of the

expected flows in the 1980s. On the basis cf the current level of aid flows

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E/ECA/LDCg.2/3

Pacre 6

from individual donor countries to the least developed countries, indications of the intentions of various donors based on the statements of their

representatives at the Paris Conference and'assuming modest rates of growth of-GNP in the donor countries, it was estimated that the volume cf external financial flows to the least developed countries that would "be available to the least developed countries as a result SNPA would rise

by about 60 per cent in real terms (averaging $10.6 billion per year) in

the period 1980-1990 as compared to the average annual level of $6O6 billion attained during the period 1975~1979«

21. An analysis of the country presentations of the African least developed countries indicates that the planned rate of growth of the

combined GDP of these countries for the 1980s is 6 per cent, which corresponds to a lnear-doubling of GDP at market prices by 1990- This scenario calls

for a total planned investment for the 1980s of $US 133 billion (at 1979 prices)

of which external financing would constitute $US 8a3 billione Imports

are planned to grow at a rate of about 10.'5 Per cent a year in the 1980s

which is much higher than the historical role of 6 per cent and exports at an average annual rate of about 8O7 as compared to a low historical performance of only 3.8 per cent a year between 1975 and 1979. The share of domestic

savings in GDP would reach about 14 per cent and 10 per cent respectively in I985 and 1990 respectively,, The planned rates of growth of investment is 12. per cent yearly which would raise the share of investment in total

GDP to about 27 per cent in 1990. Most of the investment would be channelled to such priority sectors as agriculture, economic infrastructure and manufacturing,,

In this way agriculture and industry (including manufacturing, mining,'

construction and transport and communications and energy) are scheduled to

grow at average annual rates of 4.1 por cent and 8.8 per cent respectively, bringing about marked changes in production structures, with the share of

the industrial secor rising from 14 per cent in 1979 to nearly 20 per cent by.1990.

A substantial increase in capital efficiency is envisaged with the

incremental capital output ratio planned to fall from its historical level of 4 to around 3.5 in the I98O0. 'Annex I outlines this base scenarios.

22. It is to be noted that in the planned scenario the trade gap is much larger than the saving gapo In order to make the two gaps equal

by 1990 it is assumed in a second' scenario (annex II) that the elasticity of

consumption with respect to GDP would not fall as sharply as indicated in the

country presentations (i.e. from about 1.2 for the period 1975-1979 to only

0.93 in 1980s). Consumption is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 5,9 per cent with the expansion to be met from domestic output.

23. It is important to compare the above scenarios to the situation that will obtain if past trends and policies in the least developed countries are continued. The results of such a projection are contained in annex III.

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E/ECA/LDCs.2/3 Page 7

The table indicates that the situation will be disastrous since the rate of growth of GDP would decelerate to a mere 2.9 per cent a year. The balance of payments deficit would rise to &US 57 billion,

24. Having stated this it is important to assess the implications that the shortfall In the volume of aid from the level the least developed'

countries had planned for in the 1980s would have on their desired growth path,. In this regard two further sets of projections have-been attempted on the basis of the:crude indicator'that the rise in the volume of external aid during .the 1980s would not be more than 60 per cent of total aid"

required by.the least developed countries«

25. The first set of projections (annex IV) assumes that the policy

prescriptions of the African least developed countries as contained in their'.country presentations remain unaltered at a level of aid inflow' onAy, 60 per cent of the desired level i.e. $US 50 billion. Under this scenario the. African least developed countries will experience a lower ■■

rate of growth (4.9 per cent yearly) than that planned (6 per cent)*

Such a reduction in the over—all rate of growth would have serious repercussions,, It implies a very slow growth in -the income of these,

countries., so that by 1990 there would be little or no significant improvement in the welfare %f th@ peoples of these countries,, A growth target

of GDP for.the I98O for the least developed countries that is less than 6 per cent would result in a less than doubling of GDP and in only a small increase in per capita incomes,, Furthermore, the objective of achieving a structural transformation of the economies of these -countries will not be realizable at low rates of growth of GDP since sectors such as agriculture, industry and infrastructure have to expand at relatively high rates to achieve the desirable degrees of structural transformation*

26. if the GDP of the least developed countries ic nearly to double by 1990 with'the available inflow of aid amounting to only $US 50 "billion,

the final set of projections (annex V) indicate that these countries

have no choice-but to-adopt more in-ward looking policies and measures for greater self-reliance. Under this scenario investment and.exports would be maintained at the levels originally planned while consumption and'imports are projected to grow during the 1980s at average annual rates of 4*9 per cent and 7«2 per cent respectively,• In other words, consumption elasticity would have to be maintained at the low level of about 0.8 in order to bring the saving rate to about 19 per cent of GDP

*7 1990. However, consumption would grow much faster than in the period 1975-1979, and it is hoped that the increase will be directed to the consumption levels of the lower income groups.

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E/ECA/LDCs.2/3 Page 8

27. Ihe reduction in the rate of growth of imports implies a sharp drop in import elasticity with respect to GBP to about 1,14 from the historical 1O7» Since investment will have to grow at its planned rate of about 12 per cent a year, and given the low projected growth in consumption indicated above, African LDCs will have to adopt new patterns of consumption and investment characterized "by low import content. In other words, both" consumption and investment should be more oriented

to the use of domaBtic products and domestic resources (human, material and financial). More specifically, this scenario implies the adoption of

more labour—intensive investment projects and the promotion of local agricultural and manufactured products through adequate incentives, including protection measures.

28. This would mean that plans should aim at maintaining progress with a suitable mix of low and high levels of technology, and perhaps making

do with processes that are less efficient and (by world standards) costlie»

in terms of labour and material inputs. Mhat is more, the finished product may not be as good as might be produced as a result of the wholesale adoption of the most advanced technology on the market. Bat rather than waiting indefinitely for foreign assistance to arrive in the required volume, it would be prodent to make do with what is available at home. This is true of both consumer goods and capital goods. Too often, in trying to get onto the bandwagon of advanced western technology, developing countries ignore the simpler technology available at home. There is a wide range of technology from everyday consun.er goods like textiles, soap, matches, foot-uear and safety razors to a whole host of manufactures needed in both urban and rural areas and whenever foreign exchange constraints operate the market for indigenous production must be carefully nurtured and protected from competing foreign goods„ Needless to say this will prove an unpleasant task and will clash both with many vested interests in the import-export business and with the tying of foreign aid by the developed donors.

29. The same applies to many capital formation activities like

construction, hydropower, pumps and generators, etc. In many of these areas a broad range of technology exists, and countries short of foreign exchange must undertake careful investigation to see -which technological solution calls for a minimum' of foreign exchange,

30. Again with regard to markets, it is most important.to popularize local products by encouraging their use, particularly by the educated sectors ..

of society and government organizations in order to set an example.

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31. Attempts must be made to cultivate the expertise of the most advanced type inside the country through research and development institutions, so that technology can gradually be transformed with indigenous efforts.

In the final analysis this is the only way to self-reliant growth,

however painful it might boD

32. Finally, efforts must be made to develop closer market links within Africa, so that the fullest possible advantage can bo t.-Jcon of economies

of scale.

33. As part of the effort to increase the flow of resources to the least developed countries during the IQgOs and to make the use of those

resources more effective, SNPA makes specific recommendations in respect

of increased allocation to the least developed countries in multilateral

programmes, new mechanisms for increased financial transfers to the

least developed countries .and the quality and effectiveness of.

official development.

34. With regard to multilateral assistance, multilateral agencies, particularly the World Bank Group and regional development banks are requested to

consider increasing the share of the least developed countries in their programmes of concessional assistance. While one would wish that this

provision was put in more concrete terms such as committing the multilateral agencies to specific quantitative targets in respect of the least developed countries, there is no doubt that increased allocations to the least

developed countries by the multilateral agencies could fill .an important gap in the external requirements of these countries. This is particularly important given the special diffi ulties that now confront the least

developed countries in obtaining non-concessional assistance.

35. The provision of the Programme in respect of alternative new , . sources of long-term concessional flows to the least developed countries were also not as concrete as one would wish. The Programme simply

recommends that special consideration be given to the needs of the least developed countries-in the ongoing discussion on possible new mechanisms for mobilizing increased financial transfers to developing countries

such as international tax schemes for development, further IMP gold sales, linking the creation of SDRs to development assistance and the use of interest subsidy techniques. Progress in the ongoing negotiations on these issues had been painfully slow. However in view of the potential that these mechanisms have for expanding .the volume of financial transfers, developing countries as a whole should push for their early adoption.

36. With regard to the improvement of aid modalities, SNPA urges donor

countries and institutions to make their best efforts to reach decisions

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E/ECA/LDCs.2/3 Page 10

at the earliest opportunity concerning proposal? "to improve the quality and effectiveness of official development assistance, particularly with

regard to grants, the impact of inflation on project/programme costs,

commodity aid, 'balance—of—payments support, budgetary support, support for local development "banks and financing institutions, investment in social infrastructure, temporary financing pending reimbursement for expenditure already incurred, recurrent cost planning and selection and design of projects anc their budgetary impact * The text represents . a set of aid modalities suited to the particular needs of the least developed countries. It is to be hoped that donor countries and institutions will put them into effect as soon as possible since the successful implementation of the SNPA could be greatly compromised if not accompanied by improvements in aid modaliteso

37. In their country presentations, most African least developed countries had demonstrated the need for immediate emergency aid to enable them

to cope idth serious short-term problems such as food shortages and scarcity of foreign exchange, to import critical inputs and to mitigate inflationary pressures,, Ihe African least developed countries were convinced that

such immediate action was an essential component of SNPA, which should be seen and pursued as a prerequisite for the successful implementation of the over-all Programme* To a certain extent these aspirations are met in the SNPA with the inclusion in the chapter on international

support measures of a section on the Immediate Action Component of the SNPA, The section calls for immediate attention to be given to the least developed countries' most urgent needs including the provision of substantial resources to 'review the' acute shortages of critical commodities, particularly food and energy, debt burdens, balonce-of-payments deficits, the effects of natural and man-made disasters and the serious bottlc-neckn faced in management, maintenance, repair and physical facilities, as well as for the identification of projects, the undertaking, of feasibility studies, the development of agriculture and rural areas, the supply of inputs for agricultural and rural development, the initiation of labour-intensive rural public works projects and the provision of an adequate, assured and predictable supply of resources to complement the activities'of LDCs' themselves,

38. While the immediate problem of the least developed countries will

thus be attended to under the Programme, the effectiveness of such attention may again be compromised by the absence from the programme of any specific targets or time-frame for the implementation of the immediate action

component. This notwithstanding it is hoped that in vievr of the urgent need to lay a solid base for long-term development, the implementation

of the immediate component of SNPA would need to be closely monitored in the early years of the Programme.

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E/ECA/LDCs.2/3 Page 11

39. Apart from financial assistance, SITPA covers ether international support measures which are considered crucial for the implementation of the Programme. These other measurer, include technical assistance, commercial policy measures, transport and communications, food and agriculture, transfer and development of technology, and multi-country schemes„ The action by the international community called for in these various areas is again prescriptive. However if effectively taken, the action prescribed in respect of technical assistance will go a long way towards solving the problem of shortage of skilled and trained manpower which currently constitutes the "basic constraint to economic

development and change in virtually all the African least developed countries.

The measures recommended in the field of trade and other areas of

international economic co-operation if successfully applied would also

go a long vray towards achieving among other things greater viability for the export sectors of these countries and thus enhance their capacity to import„

IV. ARRAHGETOTTS FOR r7PLME2!TATI0N, FOLLO^MJP AND MCCTTORBTG

40. As already noted, SNPA, being a compromise document is characteristically

general if not vague in most of its provisionso For the least developed

countries to derive maximum benefits from the Programme, its implementation will have to be monitored an closely as possible. The arrangements that were agreed upon and embodied in the text of the programme for its

implementation, monitoring .and follow-up should thus "be regarded by all least developed countries an providing i unique opportunity by which the global undertakings contained in the Programme would be related to the ■

specific requirements and priorities of individual countries on a

continuous basis throughout the decade. It is therefore in the interest

of every least developed country to put in place the arrangements called

for at the national level.

41. The key feature of the arrangements is the series of review meetings that each least developed country is invited to convene at appropriate intervals specifically to review and monitor the implementation of SNPA at the country level jointly with aid partners. Specifically, the review meetings will be devoted to a review of the country's economic situation and external assistance, an assessment of progress in the implementation of SNPA, securing assistance for the implementation of plans and programmes for the period under consideration, a review of aid modalities and

consideration of ways and means of assisting the country to expand its

trade in existing and new marketso

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42. In addition to the review meetings each leant developed country is invited to establish a focal point for continuing contact and

co-ordination with its development parners, both "bilateral and multilaeral.

It is also recommended that an intra-governmental working party of relevant ministries Toe set up in each country to assist the focal point in

co-ordinating work at the national lcvel0

43. SIT PA rightly recognizes the fact that the pressure to implement effectively the Programme at the country level could "be greatly sustained through regular regional and global assessments of progress. Such

regional and global assessments will help to keep the ovor-all objectives and commitments of the programme vividly in mind* They will also draw attention to difficulties and shortcomings in the implementation of the Programme ac well. as. make recommendations on ways and means of overcoming these difficulties. Furthermore, the regional and global assessments would also be useful in ensuring that no country is neglected during the course of the decade

44. In this regard, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development is called to play the focal role in elaborating the detailed arrangements at the global level for implementation, co-ordination and monitoring of the Programme.

45. A mid-term global review of progress towards the implementation of SNPA will be undertaken in 1985*. The review will be carried by the UNCTAD Inter-governmQntal Group on the Least Developed Countries, The possibility of holding a global review at the end of the decade which might inter alia take the form of a United Nations conference on the least developed countries will be considered* The global monitoring arrangements will provide an opportunity to review progress at the

country level as well as progress in the implementation of the international support measures, particularly in official development assistance. ■

4G. Comctent organizations (nuch as UN DP including the United Nations

Capital Development Fund and the Special Measures Fund for the Least

Developed Countries) the relevant regional commissions, the United Nations bodies and apecialized agencies would give full, attention in their analyses and monitoring to the problems, needs and achievements of the least

developed countries and produce relevant statistics. Also each such body would prepare periodic reports on their activities on behalf of the

least developed countrp.es as inputs to the global review process.

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47. The Director-General for Development and International Economic Co-operation, in close collaboration with the Secretary-General of UNCTAD, the executive secretaries of the regional commissions and the lead agencies for the aid groups, will ensure at the secretariat level the full mobilization and co-ordination of all organs, organizations

and "bodies in the United Nations system for the implementation and follow- up of SNPA. A similar role will be played by the resident co-ordinator for the United Nations in each least developed country who will continue mobilizing the efforts of all parts of the United Nations system.

48. The regional commissions are requested to contibute to the follow-up process and offer an opportunity for the least developed countries in each region to exchange experience and seek solutions to common problems at the national, regional and global levels.

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AMEXI

Projections

of

macro—oconomic

ap^reggtios

for the

African.,

least developed countricf

onthebasisof.countrypresentations

("base scenario) Values (Bullions of US dollars

at.1979,

prices)

SharesintotalGDP

(percent age s)

Averageannualgrowthrates

(Percentages)

19791990

1979 1985 1990 1979-1935 1935-1990 1979-1990

GDPatfactorcost38.4352.69 Agriculture20.0125.03 Industry5.408.81 Services13,0218,85

73.53 31-19

14.19 GEPatmarketprices42.2159.5483.12 Consumption Domesticsaving Capitalformation Savingsgap Imports Exports Tradegap

39.82 2.39 6.32 3.93

8,92

4.99 3.93

51-31

8.23

11.07 2.84 15.72 7.74 7-98

68.34

14.78 22,26 7.48

26.73

12.46 14-27

100.0 52O1 14.0 33.9 100.0 94-3 5.7 15.0 9.3 21.1 11.8. 9.3

100.0 47.5

I6.7

35.8 100,0 13.8 18.6 4.3

26.4

13.0 13.4

100o0 43.0 19.6 37.4 100.0 83.2 17.8 26.8 9.0 32.2 15-0 17.2

5.4 3.8

3.5 6.4

5-9 5-2 22.9 9.8 -10.4

9.9

7.6

6,3 Source:

ECA

secretariat calculations

based

on country presentations,

6C6

4.5

10.0 7.6

6.9.

5.9 12.4 15.0 15-3 11.? 10.0 5.1

6o0 4.1 8.8

6.3

5.5 18.0 12.1 6a0 10.5

8.7

5.7 H M O > H

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Projectionsof countryj GDPatfactorcost Agriculture Industry Service GDPatmarketprices Consumption Domesticsaving Capitsiformation Savingsgap Imports Exports Tradegap Source:ECAsecre"

ANNEXII macro-economicaggregatesfortheAfrican oresenta "Values dolla 1979

.38,43

20.01 5.40 13-02 42.21 39.82 2.39 6.32 3.93 8.92 4.99 3.93

tionswith

(Billions

rsat19^9

1985

52o69 25.03 8.81 18.85 59.54

56.45

3.09 11.07

7-98

15.72

7.74

7.98

adjustment ofUS prices 1990 72.53 31.19

14.19 27.15

83.12 75-13 7.99 22.26 14.27

26.73

12.46 14.27 tariatcalculations.

leastdevelopedcountriesbased01 to"balancethetra.deanc Sharesini

1979

100.0 52a 14.0

33.9

100.0 94.3 5.7 15.0 9.3 21.1 11.8 9-3

;otalGDP

(Percentages) 1935

100.0

47.5 16.7

35.8 100.0 94.8 5.2 18.6 13.4

26.4

13.0 13.4

1990 100.0 43.0 19.6

37.4

100.0 90.4 9.6 26O8 32.2 15oO :.7.2

Lsavings Averaf

1979-193!

5-4 3.3

8.5 6.4

5-9 6.0 4.4 9.8

6.3

9.9 7.6

6.3

gaps jeannualgrowl

(Percentages)

jI985-I99O] 6a6 4*5 10.0 7.6

6,9

5»9 20.9 15.0 5.1 11,2 10.0

5.1

1 :hrates L979-199O 6.0 4-1 8,8

6.9 6.3

5.9 11,6 12.1

5=7

10o5

3.7 -

5.7 Note!GrowthratesofGDPatfactorcost,GDPatmarketprices-,sectoralvaluesadded, capitalformation,importsandexportsarederivedfromthecountrypresentations. a w o 3O row

(18)

III Projectionsofma^ro-economicaggregatesfortheAfricanleastdeyelorqdcountries

(Trend scenario} Values (Billions of U5:

dollarsat1979prices

1979

19851990

SharesintotalGDP

(Percentages)

Averageannualgrowthrates

(Percentages^ 1979' 1985

19901979-19851985-19901979-1990 GDPatfactorcost38.4345*6252-89 Agriculture20.0122.2724.35 Industry

5.40 6.99 8.71 Services 13.02 16.36 19.83

GDPatmarketprices42,2154.0269.62 Consumption

39.82 50-97 63.52

Domesticsaving2.393.054.12 Capitalformation6.32..8.32..10.57

■-Savings- gap -■- ■ ■■ ■ 3.93 . 5-27 ' '6.45

Imports

8.92.

....n-§.§

14.84 Exports 4v99 6.31 ' 7.68 Trade gap

3.93

5.37 7.16

100.0100.0 52.148.8 14.015.3

33.9 35.9

100.0100.0 94-3 5.7 15.O -9.3 21.1 11.8 9.3

94.3 5.7 15.4 -9.7 21.6 11.7

9.9

100.0 46.0

16.5

37.5 100.0

93-9

6.1 15.6 •-9.5 21.9 11.4 10.5

2.9 1.3 4.2 4.2

4.1

4.7 5.0. 4.6 4.0 5-3

3.0 1.8 4-5

3.9

4.6 4.5 6.2 4.9

4-9

4.-Q

5.9

1.8

4.44

3.9 4.4 4.3 5.9 4.3 4.7 .4..Q 5.6 Source:BCAsecretariat. 3D HUI

(19)

GDPatfactor Agriculture Industry Services GDPat::arket Consumption Proiections based

of on Values- dollars 1979

cost

38. 20. 5. 13. prices42. 39« Domesticsaving2,

Capital formation

6, Savingsgap Imports Exports Tradegap Source:

■3. 8 4 3

43 01 40 02 21

83

39 32 93 ►92 .99 93 ECAsecretariat.

macro—economi theavai (Billions at1979

1985 51-

23. 8. 18. 50, 6 11 4 12 7 421

89

57

75

56 38 ,18 ,01 ,83 -53 .70 .83

labil

ANNEXIV caggregatesofAfrican ityofforeignass ■■■of-US

prices)

1990 6*04 29. 12. 23. 72. 61, 11 17. 6 17 11 607 59 38 88 60 ,28 .50 ,22 .28 .06 .22

•■■Shares-in

1979

100. 52. 14. 33. 100. 94- 5- 15. 9. 21. 11 90 1 0 9 0 3 7 0 3 1 8 .3

leastdevelopedcountries istanceas tota]

assumed .GDP.

(Percentages) 1985

100. 46. lb. 36. 100. 83. 11. 19. b. 22. 13. a.0 7 7 6 0 0 0 6 6. J 7 6

1990 100. 44. iy. 35. 100.

85.

15. 24. a. *3. 15. a.0 7 4 y 0 7 6 6. y 3 6

inthe Average

1979-1985

4. 3. 8. 6. 5. 4. 17. 9 3 5 7 39 0 0 3 0 0 2 7 5 ,8 5 »5

SNPA .annualgrowth

•(Percentages)

1985-1990 4. 4. 8. ■4- 5. 4. 12, y. 6 7 59 0 0 5 2 1 8 7 2 ,6 .5 .2

1979 4. 3. oo 5. 5. 4. -i-5- 9. 4. 6. /. 4.

rates -1990 9 4 0 5' l 0 1 7

3

2 5 3 w to H <

(20)

ANNEXV

Projections of macro-economic aggregates of African least ^blt ff in theSHK

g^basedonthe GDPr,tfactorcost A^viculture Industry Services GDPp,tmarketprices Consumption Domesticsaving Capitalformation Savingsgap Imports Exports Trn.degap

presentations

Values (Billions of US

dollarsat1979prices)

1979 1935 1990

20,01 5.4-0 13*02 39.82

2.39

6.32 3,93 8.92 4.29 3.93

52,69 25.03 0,81 13.85

59-54

53.23

6.31

11,07 4,76 12.50

7.74

4-76

72.53 31.19 1/j.19 27.15 83,12

67.59

15.61 22,26

6,65

19.11 12.46

6.65

SharesintotalGDP

(Percentages)

Averageannualgrowthrates

(Percentages) 1979 1985 1990 1979-19S5 1985-199O 1979-1990

100.0100,0 52a47.5 14-016.7

33.9 35.8

100.0100.0 94.3 5-7 15.0 9.3 21.1 11.8 9.3

87-4

12.6 13.6 8.0 21.1 13.0 8.0

100o0 43c0 19-6 37.4 100.0 8le2 18.8 26.3 8o0 23.0 15.0 8.0

5.4 3.3

3.5 6.A

5.9 5.0 17.6 9.8 3=2 5-3

7.6

3o2

6.6 4.5 10,0 7.6

6-9

4.9

19.9

15.0

6.9 8.9

10,0 6,8

6.0 4.1 3.8

6.9 6-3

4-9' 1886 12a

4-9 " 7.2 3-7

a.9 Source:ECAsecretariatprojections, JloJA',

Growth rates of GDP

at

factor cost

GDP.tmarketprices,sectoralvaluesadded,

capital formation and exports are derived from the country presentations

a M

9 Is

X to

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