International energy trends : monthly supplement on oil trends, december 1977

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International energy trends : monthly supplement on oil trends, december 1977

Organisation de Coopération Et de Développement économiques (ocde)

To cite this version:

Organisation de Coopération Et de Développement économiques (ocde). International energy trends :

monthly supplement on oil trends, december 1977. [Research Report] Organisation de coopération et

de développement économiques(OCDE). 1977, 32 p., tableaux, graphiques. �hal-01511638�

C O - O P E R A T I O N A N D D E V E L OPM E NT C o m b i n e d E n e r g y Staff E n e r g y S t a t i s t i c s and Data

P r o c e s s i n g D i v i s i o n

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CINTRt Uf i:0( U!''r NT A T'ONj Ov»A

P a r i s , 16th December, 1977

C . N . F

X . O

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sit:, g r c t a r i a t j/

n S

I N T ER N AT IONA L ENERGY TR E N D S

M O N T H L Y SUPP LEME N T ON O I L T R E N D S

/

( 1 ) i L

y

1. C O N S U M P T I O N

U n i t e d States oil consu m pti o n in O c t o b e r was slightly b e l o w the third q u a r t e r average r e f l e c t i n g a drop in m i d d l e

d i s t i l l a t e and h e av y fuel oil consump-tion. - C o m p a r e d to 12 months ago, heavy fuel oil c ons umption is up, r e f l e c t i n g co nti n u e d

r e p l a c e m e n t of natural gas by oil and poor h ydro conditions.

In J a p a n , S e p t e m b e r and O c t o b e r c o n s u m p t i o n was below the third q u a r t e r average. The slight d o w n w a r d trend of

Eu r o p e a n oil c o n s u m p t i o n has con tin u ed and oil r e f i n e r s are p e s s i m i s t i c abou t imm ed ia te trend c h a n g e s (see Grap h 3). Heavy

.ra

fuel oil was the mo s t hea vi ly affe c ted up to October, d u e to ‘ weak e c o n o m i c a c t i v i t y and r e l at i vel y high p r o d u c t i o n of \f h y d r o - e l e c t r i c i t y .

2. O E C D P R O D U C T I O N

U n ited S t a t e s pr oduction in O c t o b e r d e c r e a s e d somewhat in the lowe r 48 sta t e s whi le output in A l a s k a r e m a i n e d on a rising trend b e t w e e n 0.8 and 0.9 mbd.

O c t o b e r o u t p u t in the North Sea remained c l o s e to September levels of 1.1 mbd but may have reached 1.2 m bd in recent weeks.

(1) (a) T a b l e of c o n t e n t s is shown at the end of the int r o d u c t o r y text;

(b) E x c e p t w h e r e noted, reference is m a d e t h r o u g h o u t to figures a d j u s t e d for normal seasonal v ari ation s.

38.214

-

2

^-

3. O IL STOCKS

Oil stocks at e n d - O c t o b e r exceeded the high e n d - 1 9 7 6 levels in the Unite d Sta t es by 12.3% and in E u r o p e by 2.7%.

In Japa n they we r e u n c h a n g e d from last year's level.

4. C R U D E O I L IMPO RT S AND OPEC P R ODUC TIO N

C r u d e oil i m p or ts into the seven c o u n t r i e s rose in

O c t o b e r in all three regions, as did OPEC p r o d u c t i o n in September.

This d e v e l o p m e n t a p p ear s to be mai n ly seasonal.

5. C R UDE OI L IMP OR T P R ICE S

C r u d e oil landed in S eptember and O c t o b e r was sl ig h t l y m ore expensive, in U . S . $ terms, than- in p r e v i o u s months. The O c t o b e r pr ice level e x c e ede d the third q u a r t e r a v e r a g e by

0.4% for the Uni t e d States, 2.6% for Japan and 1.1% for Europe.

In terms of d o m e s t i c currencies, O c t o b e r cru d e oil CIF p rices

remained at the third q u a r t e r average for the seven c o u n t r i e s

as a whole, fell by 1.6 % for Japan and in c r e a s e d by 0 . 3 % for

Europe.

P a g e

C O N S U M P T I O N OF ALL OIL PR O D U C T S 6

16-17

(t a b l e s ) ( g r a p h s )

C O N S U M P T I O N BY 3 MAIN P ROD U C T S 7-9 18-20

(tab les) ( g r a p h s )

P R O D U C T I O N OF C R U D E OIL 12-13

24-25 (t a b l e s ) ( g r a p h s )

S TOCK L E V E L S OF A LL OIL ¹⁰ 23

(t a b l e s ) (g r a p h >

C R U D E O I L IMPORTS ¹¹

2 1 - 2 2

(t a b l e s ) ( g r a p h s )

A V E R A G E IM P O R T PRICE FOR A LL C R U D E C A T E G O R I E S

14 26

(tables) (g r a p h s )

I N D EX OF INDU ST RI AL PRODUCTION 27 (g r a p h )

-

6

^-

T A 3 . E 1 - O I L C O N S U M P T I O N

A - A C T U A L L E V E L S ( M b O )

1 9 7 5 1 9 7 6 7 7 Q C I r 7 0 0 2 7 7 Q 0 3 7 7 MCfi 7 7 M C 9 7 7 M 1 3

U . S . 1 6 . 2 9 . 5 9 1 9 . 6 3 1 7 . 4 3 1 7 . 9 7 1 8 . 3 0 1 7 . 9 3 1 6 . 2 1

J A P A N 4 . 1 ? 4 . i 4 5 . 1 4 4 . 0 6 4 . 2 3 4 . 2 5 4 . 1 5 4 . 1 3

“* A N C E 2 . 3 6 2 . 2 1 2 . 5 ? 2 . 0 3 1 . 6 1 i . 4 e 1 . 9 3 2 . 0 3

Ge r m a n y 2 . 5 2 2 . 7 1 2 . 6 6 2 . 6 3 2 . 6 7 2 . 6 6 2 . 7 7 2 . 7 4

J T A L Y l . S * 1 . & 3 2 . 1 ) 1 . 6 5 1 . 5 7 1 . 4 1 1 . 8 3 1 . 7 3

N E T H E R L A N 3 * 0 . 4 4 3 . 5 2 0 . 5 3 0 . 4 5 0 . 4 4 0 . 4 4 C .h8 0 . 5 3

U . K . 1 . 7 5 1 . 7 1 1 . 9 6 1 . 6 5 1 . 5 C 1 . 4 4 1 . 6 6 1 . 6 S

5 - E U P O P E M * e . 6 3 3 . > 9 9 . 7 4 8 . 4 3 7 . 7 9 7 . 4 4 8 . 6 1 e . 6 3

A L L - 7 2 9 . 1 2 3 3 . 7 7 3 4 . 5 3 2 9 . 9 3 2 9 . 9 9 3 0 . 0 0 3 0 . 6 7 3 0 . 9 9

8 - S E A S O N A L L Y A D J U S T E D L E V E L S ( M 9 D )

1 9 7 5 1 9 7 6 7 7 Q 0 1 7 7 Q 0 2 7 7 Q 0 3 7 7 H 0 8 7 7 M 0 9 7 7 M 1 0

U . S . 1 6 . 3 3 1 7 . 3 9 1 8 . 9 3 1 8 . 2 2 1 8 . 6 1 1 8 . 5 1 1 8 . 5 9 1 8 . 5 3

J A P A N A . 2 3 4 . j2 4 . 7 5 4 . 4 9 4 . 4 7 4 . 5 9 4 . 2 3 4 . 2 7

F R A N C E 2 * G 6 2 . <: 1 2 . 1 3 2 . 2 3 1 . 9 8 2 . 0 7 1 . 9 8 2 . 0 4

G - I R M A S r 2 . 5 1 2 . 7 0 2 . 6 4 2 . 7 2 2 . 6 6 , 2 . 5 3 2 . 7 5 2 . 8 5

I T A L Y 1 . 6 4 1 . 6 4 1 . 8 1 i . ? r 1 . 7 4 1 . 6 7 1 . 7 8 1 . 6 6

N E T H E P L A M 3 * 0 . 4 4 3 . 5 2 0 . 5 ) 3 . 4 7 3 . 4 8 0 . 4 6 0 . 4 9 0 . 4 3

J . K . 1 . 7 4 1 . 7 1 1 . 7 9 1 . 7 8 1 . 7 6 1 . 7 8 1 . 7 8 1 . 6 2

5 - E U P O P E A 8 . 6 C 6 . 9 6 9 . 0 4 9 . 0 6 6 . 5 7 8 . 6 3 8 . 7 1 8 . 3 4

A L L - 7 2 9 . 1 2 3 3 . 7 7 3 2 . 3 3 3 1 . 8 4 3 1 . 8 6 3 1 . 8 1 3 1 . 9 3 3 0 . 8 3

C - X C H A N G E O V E R

C O R R E S P O N O H G P E R I O D O F P P E V I O U S Y E A R

1 9 7 5 1 9 7 6 7 7 Q 0 1 7 7 Q 0 2 7 7 0 0 3 7 7 H C 8 7 7 M 0 9 7 7 M 1 3

U . S . - 2 . 2 6 . 8 1 0 . 4 5 . 7 7 . 7 1 0 . 3 6 . 4 6 . 3

J A P A N - 6 . 5 3 . 5 1 0 . 6 2 . 1 4 . 9 6 . 1 2 . 3 2 . 1

F R A N C E - 8 . 2 7 . 7 - 3 . 9 1 . 5 - 1 4 . 0 - 1 6 . 7 - 9 . 4 - 2 . 3

G E 9 M A N Y - 3 . 7 7 . 6 - 4 . 3 3 . 7 - 3 . 2 - 1 . 9 1 . 5 6 . 3

I T A L Y - 5 . 4 • 3 . 4 2 . 6 1 . 4 - 1 0 . 9 - 1 7 . 2 - 7 . 1 - 6 . 7

N E T H E R L A N 3 i - 7 . 2 1 8 . 2 - 5 . 3 - 6 . 2 - 8 . 6 - 7 . 3 - 9 . 4 0 . 4

u.k . - 1 2 . 3 - 1 . 9 1 . 3 2 . 7 2 . 6 5 . 7 5 . 2 0 . 4

5 - £ U P O P E A S j - 7 . 1 4 . 5 - 1 . 7 2 . 3 - 6 . 6 - 7 . 4 - 2 . 9 C . l

A L L - 7 - 4 . 2 5 . 7 6 . 3 4 . 1 3 . 2 4 . 6 3 . 1 4 . 2

0 - Y E A ? - T O - 0 A T E O V E R

C O F R E S * O N D I N G O F P P E V I O U S Y E A p

1 9 7 5 1 9 7 6 7 7 Q 0 1 7 7 Q 0 2 7 7 Q 0 3 7 7 M 0 8 7 7 M Q 9 7 7 H 1 3

U . S . - 2 . 3 7 . 2 9 . 2 7 . 5 7 . 6 7 . 7 7 . 6 7 . 5

J A P A N - 6 . 5 3 . 7 9 . 2 5 . 9 5 . 6 4 . 6 4 . 1 3 . 6

F R A N C E - P . 2 3 . 0 - 5 . 3 - 2 . 1 - 5 . 6 - 5 . 2 - 5 . 6 - 5 . 3

G i * M A ^ Y - 3 . 9 7 . 9 - 5 . 5 - l . l - 1 . 9 - 2 . 3 - 1 . 9 - l . l

I T A L Y - 5 . 5 - 1 . 4 1 . 4 - 2 . 7 - 2 . 1 - 2 . 7 - 3 . 4

N E T H E R L A N D S - 7 . 2 i e . 6 - 6 . } - 6 . 1 5 . 0 - 6 . 6 - 6 . 9 - 5 . 2

U . K . - 1 2 . 1 * 1 . 0 0 . 2 1 . 4 1 . 7 1 . 3 1 . 7 1 . 6

5 - E U F O P E A N ^ - 7 . 2 4 . 9 - 2 . 3 - 0 . 7 - 2 . 6 - 2 . 5 - 2 . 6 - 2 . 3

A L L - 7 - 4 . 2 6 . 3 5 . 5 4 . 9 4 . 1 4 . 3 4 . 1 4 . 1

T A B L E 2 - M C T C R G A S C L I N E C O N S L M F T I Q N

A - A C T U A L L E V E L S ( M B O )

1 9 7 5 1 9 7 6 7 7 0 0 1 7 7 CO 2 7 7 0 0 3 7 7 ^ 0 8 7 7 * 0 9 7 7 * 1 0

U . S • 6 . 6 7 6 . 9 e 6 . 7 6 7 . 2 6 7 . 4 7 7 . 6 1 7 . 2 6 7 . 1 7

J A P A N 0 . 4 9 0 . 5 2 0 . 5 2 0 . 5 2 0 . 5 5 0 . 5 7 0 . 5 3 0 . 5 3

F R A N C E 0 . 3 7 0 . 3 9 0 . 3 5 0 . 4 1 0 . 4 4 0 . 4 6 0 . 4 2 0 . 3 6

G E R M A N Y 0 . 4 7 0 . 4 S 0 . 4 e 0 . 5 3 0 . 5 6 0 . 5 5 0 . 5 7 0 . 5 3

I T A L Y 0 . 2 6 0 . 2 5 0 . 2 2 0 . 2 5 0 . 2 6 0 . 2 9 0 . 2 7 0 . 2 3

N E T H E R L A N D S o . o * O . O S o . o e 0 . 0 9 0 . 0 9 0 . 0 9 0 . 0 9 0 . 0 9

U . K . 0 . 3 6 0 . 3 $ 0 . 3 7 0 . 4 C 0 . 4 3 0 . 4 5 0 . 4 3 0 . 4 0

5 - E U R C P E A N S 1 . 5 6 1 . 6 1 1 . 5 C 1 . 6 8 1 . 8 C 1 . 8 4 1 . 7 9 1 . 6 4

A L L - 7 8 . 7 2 9 . 1 C 8 . 7 9 9 . 4 6 9 . 8 2 1 0 . 0 2 9 . 5 6 9 . 3 5

9 - S E A S O N A L L Y A C J U S T E D L E V E L S C * B D )

1 9 7 5 1 9 7 6 7 7 Q 0 1 7 7 C 0 2 7 7 G O 3 7 7 * 0 8 7 7 H O 9 7 7 * 1 0

U . S . 6 . 6 7 6 . 9 6 7 . 2 1 7 . 0 0 7 . 2 3 7 . 1 6 7 . 2 4 > . 2 2

J A p A N 0 . 4 9 0 . 5 2 0 . 5 4 0 . 5 3 0 . 5 5 0 . 5 5 0 . 5 4 0 . 5 5

F R A N C E 0 * 3 7 0 . 3 9 0 . 4 C 0 . 4 C 0 . 4 C 3 . 4 0 0 . 3 9 0 . 3 6

G E R M A N Y 0 . 4 7 0 . 4 9 0 . 5 1 0 . 5 0 0 . 5 4 0 . 5 1 0 . 5 5 0 . 5 3

I T A L Y 0 . 2 6 0 . 2 5 D . 2 4 0 . 2 5 0 . 2 5 0 . 2 5 0 . 2 4 0 . 2 4

N E T H E R L A N D S o . o e O . O S 0 . 0 9 0 . 0 9 0 . 0 9 0 . 0 9 0 . 1 C 0 . 0 9

U . K • 0 . 3 6 0 . 3 9 0 . 4 1 0 . 3 9 0 . 4 C 0 . 4 1 0 . 4 C 0 . 4 0

5 - E U R C P E A N S 1 . 5 6 1 . 6 C 1 . 6 5 1 . 6 3 1 . 6 7 1 . 6 5 1 . 6 8 1 . 6 6

A L L - 7 8 . 7 3 9 ^ 0 6 9 . 3 7 9 . 1 6 9 . 4 6 9 . 4 1 9 . 4 9 9 . 4 6

C - 1 C H A N G E O V E R

C Q R F E S P C N C I N G P E R I O C G F P R E V I O U S Y E A R

1 9 7 5 1 9 7 6 7 7 Q 0 1 7 7 CO 2 7 7 Q 0 3 7 7 * 0 8 7 7 * 0 9 7 7 * 1 0

U . S . 2 . 1 4 . 5 3 . 7 1 . 4 4 . 0 6 . 1 2 . 5 2 . 5

J A P A N 6 . 7 5 . 1 6 . 2 - C . 6 9 . 0 7 . 5 6 . 3 5 . 1

F R A N C E 4 . 9 4 . 9 2 . 2 1 . 8 - 0 . 5 C . 4 C . 1 - 7 . 6

G E R M A N Y 1 1 . 9 4 . 0 8 . 6 5 . 1 6 . 2 7 . 7 8 . 4 6 . 1

I T A L Y 7 . 1 - 3 . 2 - 1 0 . 1 - 0 . 2 - 3 . 3 C . 3 - 3 . 3 2 . 7

N E T H E R L A N D S 8 . 5 5 . 1 2 . 9 5 . 3 4 . 7 5 . G 7 . 7 7 . 4

U . K . - 2 . 2 4 . 4 4 . 3 - 0 . 2 3 . 5 9 . 0 4 . 4 - 0 . 5

5 - E U R G P E A N S 5 . 6 3 . 2 2 . 6 2 . 2 2 . 2 4 . 6 _w J•C 1 . 1

A L L - 7 2 . 9 4 . 4 3 . 6 1 . 4 3 . S 6 . C 2 . 9 2 . 2

- 8 -

T A B L E 3 - M I O C L E C E S T I L L A T E S C O f ^ S L ‘ M F T I O N

A - A C T U A L L E V E L S ( M 8 D )

1 9 7 5 1 9 7 6 7 7 Q 0 1 7 7 CO 2 7 7 C O 3 7 7 * 0 8 7 7 H O 9 7 7 H C

U . S . 2 . 8 5 3 . 1 3 4 . 4 2 2 . 7 7 2 . 6 2 2 . 7 2 2 . 7 C 3 . 2 C

J A P A N 0 . 6 C 0 . 6 2 0 . 7 4 0 . 6 0 0 . 6 C 0 . 5 7 0 . 6 2 0 . 6 2

F R A N C E 0 . 7 8 0 . 8 1 1 . 0 7 0 . 7 A 0 . 4 6 0 . 3 9 0 . 6 4 0 . 6 5

G E R M A N Y 1 . 1 7 1 . 2 3 1 . 2 2 1 . 1 7 1 . 2 2 1 . 2 5 1 . 2 7 1 . 2 2

I T A L Y 0 . 3 9 0 . 4 1 0 . 4 9 0 . 3 1 0 . 3 5 0 . 2 9 0 . 4 A 0 . 4 0

N E T H E R L A N O S 0 . 1 3 0 . 1 5 0 . 1 6 0 . 1 2 0 . 1 1 0 . 1 1 0 . 1 2 0 . 1 2

U . K . 0 . 3 8 0 . 3 8 0 . 4 9 0 . 3 7 0 . 3 C 0 . 2 7 0 . 3 7 0 . 3 8

5 - E U R O P E A N S 2 . 8 A 2 . 9 8 3 . 4 3 2 . 7 1 2 . 4 5 2 . 3 2 2 . 8 A 2 . 7 8

A L L - 7 6 . 2 9 6 . 7 3 8 . 5 9 6 . 0 8 5 . 6 7* 5 . 6 1 6 . 1 6 6 . 6 0

B - S E A S O N A L L Y A C J U S T E D L E V E L S ( ► 3 C )

1 9 7 5 1 9 7 6 7 7 Q 0 1 7 7 C 0 2 7 7 C O 3 7 7 ► 0 8 7 7 K 0 9 7 7 M 0

U . S . 2 . 8 6 3 . 1 2 3 . 3 8 3 . 2 . 6 3 . -4 8 3 . 4 5 3 . 5 5 3 . 3 3

J A P A N 0 . 6 0 0 . 6 2 0 . 6 7 0 . 6 4 0 . 6 6 0 . b 5 0 . 6 6 0 . 6 5

F R A N C E 0 . 9 1 0 . 9 8 1 . 7 6 0 . 5 5 0 . 5 2 0 . 5 9 0 . 4 7 0 . 5 0

G E R M A N Y 1 . 7 1 1 . 7 6 0 . 9 6 2 . 0 5 2 . 0 2 1 . 3 5 2 . 1 5 4 . 4 1

I T A L Y 0 . 3 9 0 . 4 1 0 . 3 8 0 . 3 8 0 . 4 1 0 . 3 8 0 . 4 A 0 . 4 2

N E T H E R L A N D S 0 . 1 3 0 . 1 5 0 . 1 A 0 . 1 4 0 . 1 3 0 . 1 2 0 . 1 3 0 . 1 2

U . K . 0 . 3 8 0 . 3 8 0 . 4 1 0 . 4 0 0 . 4 1 0 . 4 0 0 . 4 A 0 . 3 5

5 - E U R O P E A N S 2 . 8 A 2 . 9 6 2 . 8 9 3 . 0 9 2 . 8 8 2 . 3 7 3 . 0 6 2 . 9 6

A L L - 7 6 . 2 9 6 . 7 C 6 . 9 2 6 . 9 7 7 . 0 1 6 . 3 C 7 . 2 5 7 . 0 2

C - 2 C H A N G E O V E R

C C R F E S P C N C I N G P E R I G C O F P R E V I O U S Y E A R

I S 7 5 1 9 7 6 7 7 Q 0 1 7 7 Q 0 2 7 7 Q 0 3 7 7 h 0 8 7 7 M 0 9 7 ^ 1 C

- - • - - • • • • • — • — - — — —— — — *■ — — —

m

« * «

m

U . S . - 3 . 3 S . 8 1 7 . 0 7 . 4 1 0 . 8 2 1 . 5 3 . 1 5 . 7

J A P A N - 3 . 1 5 . 0 1 0 . 3 3 . 2 5 . 7 5 . 1 6 . 5 2 . A

F R A N C E - 5 . 2 4 . 1 - 7 . 3 2 2 . A - 1 3 . 2 - 2 1 . 2 - 9 . A 3 . 5

G E R M A N Y 2 5 . 4 5 . 1 • 1 1 . 2 S . 8 - 2 . C - 2 . 5 4 . 5 1 A . 6

I T A L Y C . 9 6 . S - 6 . 6 5 . 1 - 8 . 9 - 1 6 . 5 - 7 . A - A . 0

N E T H E R L A N D S 3 . 6 1 5 . 5 - 7 . 2 1 . 2 - 9 . 9 - 5 . 2 - 9 . 9 0 . 6

U . K . - 3 . 3 0 . 2 5 . 2 7 . 2 9 . 4 1 4 . 7 1 5 . 2 2 . 0

5 - E U R O P E A N S 7 . 2 4 . S - 7 . 1 1 1 . 5 - 4 . 5 - 7 . 2 - 0 . * 6 . 7

A L L - 7 1 . 2 7 . 1 5 . 5 8 . 8 3 . 1 6 . 2 1 . 8 5 . 8

T A B L E >t- R E S I D L ' A l F U E L C C N S U I - P T I C N

A - A C T L A L L E V E L S ( K . 9 0 )

1 9 7 5 1 9 7 6 7 7 0 0 1 7 7 C O 2 7 7 Q 0 3 7 7 MO 8 7 7 M 0 9 7 7 M 1 C

U . S . 2 . 4 6 2 . 7 9 3 . 5 2 2 . 8 2 2 . 8 7 2 . 8 6 2 . 9 2 2 . 7 6

J A P A N 1 . 5 6 1 . 6 6 1 . 8 6 1 . 5 7 1 . 6 6 1 . 7 0 1 . 6 5 1 . 5 9

F R A N C E 0 . 5 3 0 . 6 C 0 . 6 2 0 . 4 4 0 . 3 3 0 . 2 8 0 . 4 3 0 . 5 6

G E R M A N Y 0 . 4 1 0 . 4 5 0 . 4 4 0 . 3 9 0 . 3 6 0 . 3 5 0 . 3 9 0 . 4 2

I T A L Y 0 . 6 7 0 . 6 7 0 . 8 1 0 . 6 1 0 * 5 1 0 . 4 3 0 . 6 C 0 . 6 C

N E T H E R L A N D S 0 . 0 5 0 . 0 6 0 . 0 5 0 . 0 3 0 . 0 3 0 . 0 4 0 . 0 4 0 . 0 4

U . K . 0 . 5 6 0 . 5 1 0 . 6 1 0 . 4 7 0 . 3 7 0 . 3 4 0 . 4 3 0 . 4 6

5 - E U R Q P E A N S 2 . 2 1 2 . 2 6 2 . 5 3 1 . 9 5 1 . 6 C 1 . 4 3 1 . 8 6 2 . 0 6

A L L - 7 6 . 2 6 6 . 7 2 7 . 9 0 6 . 3 4 6 . 1 5 5 . 9 8 6 . 4 6 6 . 4 3

3 - S E A S C N / L L Y A C J U S T E D L E V E L S t h S C )

1 9 7 5 1 9 7 6 7 7 0 0 1 7 7 C 3 2 7 7 C O 3 7 7 MO 8 7 7 M 0 9 7 7 M 1 C

U . S . 2 . 4 6 2 . 7 £ 3 . 0 6 3 . 1 2 3 . 1 6 3 . 0 C . 3 . 2 5 ♦ 2 . 9 4

J A P A N 1 . 5 9 1 . 6 5 1 . 7 7 i : 7 i 1 . 6 6 1 . 7 2 1 . 6 1 1 . 6 6

F R A N C E 0 . 5 2 0 . 6 C 0 . 5 5 0 . 5 0 0 . 4 2 0 . 4 1 0 . 4 7 0 . 5 2

G E R M A N Y 0 . 4 1 0 . 4 5 0 . 4 5 0 . 4 3 0 . 3 6 0 . 3 7 0 . 3 6 0 . 3 5

I T A L Y 0 . 6 6 0 . 6 6 0 . 6 9 0 . 6 9 0 . 5 9 0 . 5 4 0 . 6 1 0 . 5 6

N E T H E R L A N D S 0 . 0 5 0 . 0 6 0 . 0 5 0 . 0 4 0 . 0 4 0 . 0 4 0 . 0 4 0 . 0 3

U . K . 0 . 5 5 0 . 5 1 0 . 5 C 0 . 5 2 0 . 5 1 0 . 4 8 0 . 5 2 0 . 4 4

5 - E U R Q P E A N S 2 . 2 0 2 . 2 6 2 . 2 4 2 . 2 0 1 . 9 5 1 . 3 8 2 . 0 1 1 . 8 6

A L L - 7 6 . 2 5 6 . 7 1 7 . 0 9 7 . 0 C 6 . 8 2 6 . 6 3 6 . 8 3 6 . 4 6

o • M C H A N G E O V E F

C C R F E S P C N C I N G P E R I O C C F P R E V I O U S Y E / R

1 9 7 5 1 9 7 6 7 7 Q 0 1 7 7 CO 2 7 7 C 0 3 7 7 hO 8 7 7 MO 9 7 7 h 1 C

U . S . - 6 . 7 1 3 . 2 1 9 . 2 1 3 . 4 1 1 . 1 6 . 6 1 6 . 3 1 C . 1

J A P A N - 1 1 . 5 4 . 6 6 . A 3 . . 1 2 . 1 4 . 7 - C . 2 C . 7

F R A N C E - 1 6 . 4 1 3 . C - 6 . 2 - 1 6 . 9 - 3 3 . 6 - 3 9 . 8 - 2 1 . 4 - 6 . 6

G E R M A N Y - e . 5 e . c - 0 . 4 - 2 . 7 - 1 8 . C - 2 C . 5 - 1 4 . 4 - 7 . 2

I T A L Y - 1 C . 4 l . C 3 . 6 - C . 6 - 1 6 . 1 - 2 5 . 9 - 8 . 5 - 9 . 7

N E T H E R L A N D S - 2 3 . 0 1 6 . 9 - 2 0 . C - 2 5 . 9 - 2 7 . 4 - 2 4 . 2 - 3 5 . 2 - 3 6 . 2

U . K . - i e . 3 - 9 . C - 3 . C C . * - 0 . 6 - 2 . 1 C . 7

5 - E U R O P E A N S - 1 3 . 9 3 . C - 1 . 7 - 6 . 2 - 1 8 . 3 - 2 3 . 4 - 1 1 . 7 - 7 . C

A L L - 7 - 1 C . 6 7 • 4 8 . 7 4 . 2 - 0 . 6 - 2 . C 2 . 5 1 . 7

- 10 -

T A E L E 5 - S T O C K L E V E L S C F C F U C E O I L A N D P R 0 C U C T 5 I N M B L A T E N C C F P E R I O C

A . A C T t A L L E V E L S

1 9 7 5 1 9 7 6 7 7 0 0 1 7 7 CO 2 7 7 0 0 3 7 7 1 * 0 6 7 7 M 0 9

U . S . C 1 ) J A P A N F R A N C E G E R M A N Y I T A L Y

N E T H E R L A N D S U . * .

9 3 9 3 5 2

942

3 8 2

9 0 9 3 5 2

1 C 0 0 2 9 0

1 0 6 2 3 9 7

1 C 3 9 29 C

1 0 6 2 2 9 7

5 E U R O P E A N S A L L - 7

8 4 7 2 1 3 2

8 7 C 2 1 9 6

8 1 1 2 0 7 3

8 6 2 2 2 5 1

9 0 0 2 3 5 S

9 0 9 2 2 3 7

9 0 C 2 3 5 9

( 1 ) B R E A K I h S E R I E S : A S O F J A N U A R Y 1 9 7 6 C F U C E O I L S T O C K S I N C L U D E F 0 R E I ’G N O T Y E T R E C E I V E C A T R E F I N E R I E S .

3 . S E A S O N A L L Y A C J U S T E C L E V E L S

1 9 7 5 1 9 7 6 7 7 Q 0 1 7 7 C 0 2 7 7 0 0 3 7 7 H 0 8 7 7 M 0 9

U . S . J A P A N

FRANCE

G E R M A N Y I T A L Y

N E T H E R L A N D S U . K .

5 E U R O P E A N S A L L - 7

9 2 3 3 4 8

8 2 4 2 0 8 2

9 2 7 3 7 8

8 4 6 2 1 3 6

9 4 5 3 9 C

8 7 6 2 2 1 2

1C1 8

2 9 3

8 7 C 2 2 7 7

1 0 3 C 3 7 5

8 3 2 2 2 4 4

1 C 2 1 2 7 1

65 8 2 2 6 1

1 C 3 C 3 7 5

8 3 3 2 2 4 4

7 7 M C

1 C 8 7 4 0 7

$ 2 9

2 424

C R U D E C I L

1 C 4 1 2 7 6

€ 6 7 2 2 7 8

T A 8 L i 6 - C F U D E O I L I M P O R T S

A - A C T U A L L E V E L S C M B O )

1 9 7 5 1976 77901 * 7 0 0 2 7 7 Q 0 3 7 7 M 0 8 7 7 M 0 9 77 M10

- - - - ---- - - - • -- - - -

U .S . 4 . 1 3 5.29 6 .5 2 6 . 7 2 6 .5 3 6.44 6.59 6.45

J A P A N 4 . 5 3 4. o 2 5.04 4 .5 9 4 . 5 9 4 . 5 9 4.65 4.61

F R A N C E 2 . 1 4 2.41 2.4 7 2 .1 * 2 . 1 5 2 . 3 6 1.81 2.65

u £9 HA N Y 1 . 8 0 I . >6 2 . 02 1 .0 5 2 . 0 1 2. 10 1.90 1.66

I T A L Y 1 . 6 5 1.96 2 .0 3 2.1 4 1.8 7 1 .9 5 1.96 2.33

N E T H E R L A N D S 1 . 10 I . ¿7 1.28 1 .23 1.1 0 1.00 1.11 1.11

U .K . 1 . 6 0 1.72 1.34 1.12 0 .92 0 . 8 6 0. 93 1.02

5 - £ U P 0 P E A N , > 8 . 6 6 9 .¿5 9.1? 8 .5 3 8 . 0 5 8 . 2 7 7.70 8.97

A L L - 7 1 7 . 3 1 1 9 . 2 5 2 0 . 7 5 19. 6 3 1 9 . 1 7 1 9 . 3 0 18. 93 2 0 . 0 4

8- S E A S O N A L LY A D J U S T E D L E V E L S (M8 D)

1 97 5 1976 7 7QQI 7 7 0 0 2 77 303 7 7 M C 8 7 7 M 0 9 7 7 * 1 0

U . S . 4 . 1 0 5.¿7 6.90 6. 9 6 6 . 0 1 6.01 6. 11 6.63

J A P A N 4 . 5 2 4.61 5.1 2 4. 6 7 4. 51 4 . 3 9 4.6 5 4 .64

F U . N C E 2 . 1 4 2 .h1 2.45 2. 2 7 2 . 2 1 2 . 2 3 1 .6 5 2.68

G E R M A N Y 1.2) 1.97 2.11 1.88, 1 . 9 9 2 . C 6 1.83 1.91

I TAL Y 1 . 6 4 1.96 2.17 2.14 1 . 8 0 1 .80 1. 75 2.22

N E T H E R L A N D S 1 .1 0 1.27 1 . 34 1 .2 3 1 . 0 9 1.01 1 .06 1.0)

U .K . 1.3 0 1.71 1.37 1.1) 0 . 95 0 . 8 7 0. 93 1.06

5 - E U P Q P E A ^ 8 . 6 9 9 . 3 2 9.41 8 .6 5 8 . 1 5 7 . 8 5 7. 7 4 8.47

A L L - 7 1 7 . 3 2 19. a 7 2 1 . 5 7 2 0 . 2 4 1 8 . 9 3 1 8 . 3 2 1 6. 5 1 1 9 . 1 9

C- X C H A N G E O V E R

C O F F E S P O N D I M G P E P I 3 0 OF P R E V I O U S YEAF

1 9 7 5 1976 77001 7 7 0 0 2 7 7 0 0 3 7 7 M 0 8 7 7 M 0 9 7 7 M 1 0

U . S . 18.1 28. 8 4 4. 2 3 3.7 1 3 . 7 15. 9 12.0 13.3

J A P A N - 5 . 8 2.0 11.6 2.5 0 . 7 5.3 - 1 . 4 - 0.7

F R A N C E - 1 8 . 0 12.9 2.7 - 2 . 5 - 1 2 . 0 - 0 . 4 - 2 8. 1 21.4

G E R M A N Y - 1 2 . 2 9.9 15.9 1.1 - 6 . 2 - 3 . 3 - 1 4 . 5 - 1 0 . 3

I T A L Y - 2 1 . 6 6.4 9.2 5.5 - 2 . 2 - 1 . 3 - 9. 0 32.8

N E H E R L A N O o - 1 4 . 1 15.4 1.0 4.7 - 1 7 . 2 - 2 0 . 3 - 2 1 . 6 -4. 6

U . K . - 1 9 . 4 -4 .3 - 2 3 . 3 - 3 6 . 8 - 4 2 . 8 - 4 7 . 3 - 4 5 . 2 - 3 9 . 2

5 - E U R 3 P E A ^ s - 1 7 . 5 7.6 1.2 - 5 . 8 - 1 4 . 7 - 1 2 . 0 - 2 1 . 9 1.3

A L L - 7 - 7 . 9 11.2 14.6 6.*> - 2 . 9 - 0.1 - 7.4 4.4

0 - Y E A P - T O - O A T E O V E R

COR F E S ’D N O I N G OF P F E V I O U S Y E A 0

1 97 5 1976 77001 7 7 0 0 2 7 7 0 0 3 7 7 1 0 8 7 7 M 0 9 7 7 M 1)

U . S . 1 8 . 2 29.2 42.7 3 6.0 2 8 . 6 3 1 . 2 28.8 27.)

J A P A N - 6 . 3 2. 2 11.1 6.8 4.8 5.6 4.8 4.2

F R A N C E - 1 7 . 9 13.1 1.5 -C . 4 - 4 . 4 - 1 . 3 -4 . 4 -2.0

GER M A N Y - 1 2 . 2 10.2 14.8 7.3 2.5 5.0 2.5 1.1

I T A L Y - 2 2 . 6 5.3 6.2 6.9 3.9 5.7 3.9 6.S

N E T H E R L A M Oj - 1 3 . 6 15. 5 -0.6 1.3 - 4 . 9 - 2 . 5 - 4 . 9 -4.9

U . K . - 1 7 . 9 -4.0 - 2 4 . 6 - 3 0 . 9 - 3 4 . 6 - 3 4 . 0 - 3 4 . 6 - 3 5 . 1

5 - £ U P 3 P £ M j 7.6 0.1 -2. 9 - 6 . 9 - 4 . 9 -6 . 9 -6.1

A L L - 7 • . 11.3 13.5 1 0. 2 5.6 7.3 5.6 5.«»

T A B L E 7 - C R U D E C I L F R C D U C T I O N C O C O C O C ' S E A R R E L S / C A Y )

A C T U A L L E V E L S

1 9 7 5 1 S 7 6 77 CO 1 7 7 C C 2 77 CO 3 77 HO 6 7 7 H 0 9 7 7 H I C

O P E C C O U N T R I E S

A B U O H A B I 1 .39 1 . 5 9 1 .66 1 .70 1 . 6 5 1 .6 1 1 . 6 2 1 . 6 6

A L G E R I A 0 . 8 7 1 .00 1 .OS 1 .10 0 . 9 5 0 .9

_L

0 . 9 7 0 .9 C

I MO O N E S IA 1 . 3 2 1 . 5 1 1 .61 1 .70 1 . 6 7 1 . 6 6 1 . 5 7 1 .65

I R A N 5 . 3 5 5 . 3 8 5 . 3 C 5 . 4 1 5 . 4 4 5 . 6 5 5 . 9 7 5 . 5 2

I R A K 2 . 2 5 2 . 1 6 2 . 3 1 2 . IS 2 . 2 2- 2 . 0 C 2 . 4 0 2 . 3 2

K U W A I T Cl) 2 . O S 2 . 1 5 1 .86 1 .34 1 . 9 1 1 . 3 1 2 . 3 C 2 . 0 0

L

I B

YA 1 . 4 6 1 . 9 2 2 . 0 6 2 . 1 C 2 . 0 C 2 . 1 C 2 . 0 3 2 . 1 C

N I G E R I A 1 .SC 2 . 0 3 2 . 2 1 2 .29 2 .0 3 2 . 0 3 2 .0 0 1 . 9 4

S A U D I A R A B I A ( 1 ) 7 .07 8 . 5 8 9 . 3 2 9 . 4 C 9 . 0 4 3 .6 1 3 .7 C 8 . 4 2

V E N E Z U E H 2 . 3 6 2 . 3 0 2 . 3 5 2 . 1 7 2 . 2 9 2 . 2 S 2 . 3 7 2 .4 C

O T H E R 3 F E C 1 . 1C 1 . 2 4 1 .21 1 . 1 6 1 . 1 4 1 . 26 1 .05 1 . 2 5

T O T A L O F E C 2 7 . 1 « 2 0 . 4 0 21 .48 21 .04

iIIm i*0 I • I O 1ro i 1

29 . 9 7 3 1 . 0 6 3 0. 4C

O E C O C O U N T R I E S

C A N A D A ( 2 ) 1 . 7 4 1 . 5 9 1 . 6 4 1 . 5 7 1 . 4 7 1 . 6 3 1 . 3 7

U . S . ( 2 ) 1 0 . 0 1 9 . 7 2 9 . 5 7 9 . 6 1 1 0 . 0 4 1 0 . 0 6 1 0 . 2 5 1 0 . 1 7

N O R W A Y 0 . I S 0 . 2 8 0 . 3 3 0 . 2 C 0 . 2 7 0 . 2 7 0 . 3 1 0 . 3 0

U . K . 0 . 0 3 0 . 2 4 0 . 6 2 0 . 7 6 0 . 3 0 G . 8 1 0 . 3 3 0 . 3 2

O T H E R O E C O 0 . 7 5 0 . 7 6 0 . 8 0 0 . 7 8 0 . 7 6 0 . 7 7 0 . 7 5

T O T A L O E C D 1 2 . 7 2 1 2 . 5 9 1 2 . 9 7 1 2 . 9 4 1 3 . 3 2 1 3 . 5 3 1 3 . 5 0

O T H E R W O R L D

U S S R 9 . 7 S 1 0 . 3 6 1 0 . 7 5 1 0 . 9 3 1 1 . 0 4 1 1 . 0 5 1 1 . 0 5

C H I N A 1 . 4 5 1 . 6 5 1 , 7 5 1 . 7 7 1 . 7 6 1 . 7 6 1 . 7 6

O T H . C P E C 0 U N' T F I E S 0 . 3 S 0 . 3 9 0 . 3 5 0 . 3 S 0 . 3 $ 0 . 3 5 0 . 3 S

M E X I C O 0 . 7 2 0 . 3 0 0 . 9 2 0 . 6 6 1 . 0 1 1 . 0 1 1 . 0 2

Q T H . C O U N T R I E S 2 . 8 1 2 . 7 7 3 . 0 9 3 . 1 6 3 . 2 1 3 . 1 9 3 . 2 2

T O T A L O T H E R W C R l D 1 5 . 1 6 1 5 . 9 0 1 6 . 9 2 1 6 . 9 3 1 7 . 4 1 1 7 . 4 0

17.44

T O T A L W C R L D 5 5 . 0 4 5 3 . 9 6 • 61 . 3 7 60 . 9 1 6 1 . O S 6 0 . 9 0 6 2 . 0 3

( 1 ) I N C L U D I N G 5 0 * N E U T R A L 2 0 N E ( 2 ) I N C L U D I N G N ^ L F R C O L C T I G N

X CHANGE

O V E R

C O F R E S F O N O I N G P E R I C D O F P R E V I O L S Y E A R

1 9 7 5 1 5 7 6 7 7 CO 1 7 7 C 0 2 7 7 C O 2 7 7 H 0 6 7 7 K 0 5 7 7 P' l C

OPEC COUNTRIES

ARU OHABI -l.C

1 4 . 2 6 . 2 9 . 9 2 . C

-

-

-1.0

ALGERIA

- 6 . 2 1 4 . 2 8 . 9 9 . 9 - 2 . 2 - 2 . 2

- -10.0

I NOO.NES IA

^{- 4 . C 1 2 . 2 1 C . 4 1 3 . 1 1 C . 8 1 C . 6 1 1 . 1}

6.6

IRAN

- 1 C . 2 5 . 2 1 C . 7 - 5 . 6

-8.6

^{- 2 . 6 - 7 . 7 - 1 5 . 2}

IRAK

2 7 . 5 1 1 5 . 3 4 7 . 1 - 2 . 7 - 1 6 . 2

- -11.1

KUWAIT

( 1

) -ie. i

2 . 0 - C . 1 1 . e

-7.4

- 5 . 1

-4.2 -24.5

LIBYA

- 3 . 5 2 5 . 2 ^{l ^ . 1} 8 . 5 C . 6

4. 8

^{1 . 7}

6.

⁶

'A

IG E R I A

- 1 9 . e 1 5 . 3 e . 7 9 . 5

l.C

⁵

.

^{C - 2 . 2}

-8.9 SAUCI ARABIA

( 1

)

- 1 6 . 2 2 1 . 2

17. € 11.6 4.1 -1.5 4. 4 -9.1

VENEZUELA -2 C. 2 -2.6 le. 4 -9.6 -6.6 -6.6 -2.7 2.1

OTHER OFEC -4.5 12.8 -1.2 -5.6 -e.c -2.5 -16.2 1.6

TOTAL OFEC -1C.7 12.

0

12. 1 6.5 -1.4 -2.1 -1.2 -7.7

O E C O C O U N T R I E S

C A N A D A ( 2 ) - 1 3 . 2 -6 . 5 e ^ c; - 0 . 2 - 2 . 6 9. 6 - 8 . 2

U . S . ( 2) - 4 . 4 - 2 . 8 - 2 . 4 - 1 . 2 3 . 2 4-. C 4 . 7 5. U

N O R W A Y 4 3 8 . 7 46. 1 2 3 . 3 - 8 . 5 - 1 6 . 4 - 1 6 . 2 - 1 . C - 1 4 . 0

U . K . 2 8 2 . 4 6 3 2 . 6 4 3 2 . 9 2 1 3 . 1 2 2 3 . 5 2 1 6 . 7 172*. C 1 1 2 . 2

O T H E R O E C D - C . 2 C. 7 7. C 1 . 4 - 2 . 7 - 2 . 5 - ¿ . 9

T O T A L O E C D - 4 . 1 - 1. 0 2 . 6 3 . 6 6. C 8. 1 6 . 5

O T H E R W C R L O

U S S R 6 . 5 5 . 8 5 . 9 6 . 2 6. C 6 . 2 5 . 6

C H I NA 4 9 . 5 12. 6 12. 3 7.1 7.8 6 . 7 6 . 7

3 T H . C P E C O U N T R I E S 1.6 -1. 5 1. 7 1.6 1.2 1. 3 1. *

M E X I C O 3 1 . 6 1C. 5 2 4 . 4 - 1 3 . .1 2 1 . 4 2 1 . 6 2 2 . 5

O T H . C G U N T R I E S 2. 5 - 1 . 5 18. 1 1 5 . 9 1 2 . 5 1 1 . 5 1 2 . 2

T O T A L O T H E R W C R L D 9 . 5 5. 2 5. 4 6. 8 8 . 2 7 . 5 7 . 8

T C T A L W C R L D

1 •a • ^im

7. 1 5 . 5 6 . C 2. 7 2. 8 2 . 8

( 1 ) I N C L U D I N G 5 0 2 N E L T F A L Z O N E C 2 ) I N C L U D I N G N G L F R C D I C T I C N

-

14

^-

T A 3 L E 8 - W E I G H T E D A V E R A G E C ^ U D E P R I C E S F O P A L L C P U O E O I L

A . - A 8 S 0 L U T E L E V E L S : i f -e x : e p t u s c d -

I N J S I / 9 L

7 4 Q 0 3 7 5 Q 0 3 7 6 Q 0 3 7 7 Q 0 2 7 7 Q 0 3 7 7 M 0 8 7 7 MO 9 7 7m 1 0

U . S . 1 1 . T 9 1 1 . 3 7 1 2 . 4 V 1 3 . 3 7 1 3 . 4 1 1 3 . 4 0 1 3 . 4 9 1 3 . 4 7

J * P 4 N 1 1 . 3 6 l i . 6 9 1 2 . 6 5 1 3 . 5 6 1 3 . 6 6 1 3 . 5 8 1 3 . 7 4 1 4 . C l

F R A N C E 1 1 . 0 7 1 1 . 6 9 1 2 . 2 1 1 3 . 5 5 1 3 . 6 6 1 3 . 6 3 1 3 . 8 0 1 3 . 8 8

G E R M A N Y 1 1 . 6 0 l i . 6 3 1 3 0 5 1 4 . 1 3 1 4 . 1 6 1 4 . 0 9 1 4 . 1 7 1 4 . 3 3

I T A L Y 1 1 . 5 9 1 1 . 3 5 1 2 . 4 3 1 3 . 0 8 1 3 . 2 3 1 3 . 2 7 1 3 . 2 9 1 3 . 4 3

N E T H E R L A N O o 1 1 . 1 3 1 1 . 6 3 1 2 . 8 3 1 3 . 7 6 1 3 . 8 4 1 3 . 93 1 3 . 7 3 1 3 . 9 2

U . K . 1 9 . 3 7 l a . 96 1 2 . 4 ' 1 3 . 6 9 1 3 . 6 9 1 3 . 7 3 1 3 . 6 4 1 3 . 8 3

5 E U R O P E A Na 1 1 . 2 7 1 1 . 4 5 1 2 . 5 3 1 3 . 6 1 1 3 . 7 1 1 3 . 7 1 1 3 . 7 3 1 3 . 8 6

A L L - 7 1 1 . * 3 1 1 . 4 9 1 2 . 5 5 1 3 . 5 1 1 3 . 6 0 1 3 . 5 8 1 3 . 6 5 1 3 . 7 7

( 1 ) U S F 0 3 V A L U E S G I V E N A B O V E A R E R O U G H L Y d X 3 E L Q W C O R P E S P O N D I N G i C I F V A L U E S

3 . - I N D I C E S C 1 9 7 4 = 1 3 0 ) ( S A S i D O N N A T I O N A L C U R R E N C Y )

7 4 Q 0 3 ? : > Q C 3 7 6 Q D 3 7 7 Q C 2 7 7 Q 0 3 7 7 M0 8 7 7 H O 9 7 7 M 1 0

U . S . 1 0 7 . 8 1 w 4 . 1 1 1 3 . 3 1 2 2 . 4 1 2 2 . 7 1 2 2 . 6 1 2 3 . 5 1 2 3 . 3

J A P A N 1 0 8 . 2 1 x 1 . 4 1 1 7 . 3 1 1 9 . 4 1 1 6 . 3 1 1 5 . 8 1 1 7 . 3 1 1 4 . 4

f i a n c e 1 0 6 . 8 1 C 2 . 7 1 2 C . 3 1 3 5 . 4 1 3 4 . 8 1 3 4 . 6 1 3 7 . 0 1 3 6 . 1

g e r m a s y 1 0 J . 3 > 8 . 3 1 0 9 . 3 1 1 0 . 5 ¿ 0 8 . 2 1 0 8 . 1 1 0 9 . 0 1 0 8 . 0

I T A L Y 1 0 6 . 2 l u 5 . 7 1 4 6 . ♦ 1 6 2 . 4 1 6 3 . 6 1 6 4 . D 1 6 4 . 5 1 6 5 . 7

N E T H E R L A N D S 1 0 2 . 0 l u 4 . 7 1 1 7 . 5 U S . 5 1 1 6 . 4 1 1 6 . 9 1 1 6 . 0 1 1 6 . 3

U . K . 1 0 4 . 7 1 1 6 . 8 1 5 9 . 7 1 8 0 . 2 1 7 8 . 5 1 7 8 . 6 1 7 7 . 1 1 7 6 . 8

5 E U R O P E M a 1 0 4 . 4 l w 5 . 8 1 3 2 . 2 1 4 3 . 8 1 4 3 . 1 1 4 3 . 2 1 4 3 . 7 1 4 3 . 5

A L L - 7 1 0 6 . J U 6 . 9 1 2 5 . 1 1 3 3 . 6 1 3 2 . 5 1 3 2 . 5 1 3 3 . 3 1 3 2 . 4

GRAPHS

- 1 6 -

GRAPH-1 U.S. AND JAPAN OIL CONSUMPTION

U . S .

JAPAN

. N O T S E A S O N A L L Y A D J U S T E D

. S E A S O N A L L Y A D J U S T E D , 3 - M O N T H S M O V I N G A V E R A G E

PE R C EN T

GRAPH 2- 5-EUR.OIL CONSUMPTION

. N O T S E A S O N A L L Y A D J U S T E D

. S E A S O N A L L Y A D J U S T E D , 3 - M O N T H S M O V I N G A V E R A G E

GRAPH 3- NEXT 3 MONTHS STOCKS EXPECTATION (BEL,FRA,GER, ITA) REFINER,S OPINION SURVEYi ADEQUACY OF PRODUCT STOCKS IN

C EEC COUNTRIES

T H E P L O T S R E P R E S E N T T H E ( W E I G H T E D ) P E R C E N T A G E O F A L L R E S P O N D E N T S C O N S I D E R I N G P R O D U C T S T O C K S T O B E H I G H E R T H A N N O R M A L M I N U S T H E (WEIGH TE D ) P E R C E N T A G E O F A L L R E S P O N D E N T S C O N S I D E R I N G P R O D U C T S T O C K S T O B E L O W E R T H A N N O R M A L

HA D PE R C EN T

- 1 8 -

GRAPH 4-MOTOR GASOLINE CONSUMPTION

U . S .

5-EUROPEANS

ax s:

^CD

CD

J A P A N

Q CD

I1.0 I

0 . 5

0 .

-iii 1 1 » 1

7 4

±-4-1-1 .1.L-l

7 5

..]—I—i. 1 I.. I 1

7 6 7 7

1.0

0 . 5 0 .

OCD

N O T S E A S O N A L L Y A D J U S T E D

.. S E A S O N A L L Y A D J U S T E D , 3 - N O N T H S M O V I N G A V E R A G E

GRAPH 5-liIDDLE DESTILLATES CONSUMPTION U.S.

5-EUROPEANS.

JAPAN

. NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED,3-NONTHS MOVING AVERAGE

MBD HßO MBD

- 2 0 -

GRAPH 6-RESIDUAL FUEL CONSUMPTION U.S.

5-EURQPEANS'

JAPAN

. NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED.3-NONTHS MOVING AVERAGE

GRAPH 7- U.S. AND JAPAN CRUDE IMPORTS U.S.

JAPAN

. NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED,3-hONTHS MOVING AVERAGE

MBD MBD

PE R C EN T M B D

- 2 2 -

GRAPH 8- 5-EUR.CRUDE IMPORTS

- = = N O T S E A S O N A L L Y A D J U S T E D

--- S E A S O N A L L Y A D J U S T E D . 3 - M O N T H S M O V I N G A V E R A G E

GRAPH 9- NEXT 3 MONTHS PRODUCTION EXPECTATION (B.F,G,I) REFINER,S OPINION SURVEY. PRODUCTION EXPECTATIONS FOR

THE NEXT THREE MONTHS IN U EEC COUNTRIES

T H E C U R V E S R E P R E S E N T T H E ( WE I GH T ED ) P E R C E N T A G E O F A L L R E S P O N D E N T S E X P E C T I N G P R O D U C T I O N I N C R E A S E S U P T O T H E M O N T H P L O T T E D M I N U S T H E (W E IG H TE D ) P E R C E N T A G E O F A L L R E S P O N D E N T S E X P E C T I N G P R O D U C T I O N D E C R E A S E S U P T O T H E M O N T H P L O T T E D

PE R C EN T

GRAPH 10-CRUDE AND PRODUCTS STOCKS

___________ N O T S E A S O N A L L Y A D J U S T E D

___________ S E A S O N A L L Y A D J U S T E D , 3 - M O N T H S M O V I N G A V E R A G E (1) B R E A K IN S E R I E S - S E E F O O T N O T E T A B L E 5 -

MBL MflL

MBD

GRAPH 11- OPEC CRUCE PRODUCTION

- 2 4 -

GRAPH 12- ALL-7 CRUDE IMPORTS

. NOT S E A S O N A L L Y A D J U S T E D

. S E A S O N A L L Y A D J U S T E D , 3 - MO N T H S MOVI NG A V E R A G E

M0D

GRAPH 13 U.S.CRUDE PRODUCTION

GRAPH 14- 5-EUR.+N0RWAY CRUDE PRODUCTION

M B D

GRA H 15- CRUDE OIL IMPORT PRICES, IN US DOLLARS

-GRAPH 16- INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 1970=100 (1)

(1) S E A S O N A L L Y A D J U S T E D

- 2 8 -

T E C H N I C A L NOTES

M o n t h l y oil d a t a are ma i n l y taken from p u b l i s h e d national sources, therefore, they m a y dif f er s lightly fro m c o m p a r a b l e data in O ECD p u b l i c a t i o n s w h ich are based on sta ndard

q u e s t io n n aires.

So u rces

- P rod u c t i o n dat a are from various p u b l i s h e d sources;

- Imports and con s u m p t i o n data are from r e f i n e r y surveys carried out month l y by the p r o f e s s i o n a l a s s o c i a t i o n s of the Petroleum Industry;

- Data on stocks levels are either p u b l i s h e d d a t a (US and Japan) or are taken from the M o n t h l y O ECD Stock Reports. For some European, c o u n t r i e s , d a t a on stock levels remai n confidential, t h e r e f o r e E u ropean data are only given in a g g r e g a t e form;

- The m o n t h l y re f i n e r ' s opinion survey is c a r r i e d out by e c o n o m i c r e s e a r c h institutes and s t a t i s t i c a l of f ices of EEC countries.

T ime lags

In theory, the import, stock and o p i n i o n d a t a are

av a i la b le at the co l l e c t i n g agency two weeks a ft e r the end of the month. However, some of the European and J a p a n e s e f i g u r e s u n d e rg o leng th y pr oc e s s i n g (opinion surveys) or are kept c o n ­ fidential, i.e. can o nly be used in regional a g g r e g a t e s until official figures are av a i l a b l e four weeks later.

P r e s e n t a t i o n and its use

In addition to actual levels, derived series are shown

in the form of s e a s o n a l l y adjusted series, c h a n g e s a g a i n s t same

period of p revious year and y e a r- t o-y e ar c h a n g e s ov e r c o r r e s p o n d ­

ing of previous year. C h a n g e s against same period of p r e v i o u s

year are a popular way, in the P e tr o leu m Press, to e l i m i n a t e

seasonal effects. This, however, can be m i s l e a d i n g , and

se as o n a l l y adjusted figu re s should, preferably, be used in

order to d e t e r m i n e latest trends. Y e a r - t o - d a t e c h a n g e s gi v e a

basic forward es t i m a t e for the full y e a r - t o - y e a r change.

O r i g i n a l u ni t s and conver s ion s

C o n v e r s i o n into bbl

1 litre = 0.00 629 bbl - Crude: 1MT = 7.3 bbl

- Total Products: 1MT = 7.8 bbl - Mo tor Gasoline: 1MT = 8.53 bbl - M i d d l e Distillates: 1MT = 7.46 bbl - Residual Fuel: 1MT = 6.66 bbl

To c o n v e r t into b b l / d a y the month l y figures are d i v ided by the actual n u m b e r of days in a month.

G e n e r a l d e f i n i t i o n s

D o m e s t i c c o n s u m p t i o n : net pr o d u c t i o n of produc ts

plus i m p o r t s of p r o du c ts minus export of p r o duc ts (including i n t e r n a t i o n a l m a r i t i m e bunkers) m i n us net i n c rease in stocks.

- M o t or g a s o l i n e

In c l u d e s p r e m i u m and regular m o t o r gasoline.

E x c l u d e s a v ia t ion gasoline.

- M i d d l e d i s t i l l a t e s

I n c l u d e heating oil and gas diesel oil, e x cl ude jet fuels.

- Res id ua l fuel oil He a v y fuel oil.

C r u d e p r o d u c t i o n : includes, w h e r e a p p l i c a b l e (mainly US), c o n d e n s a t e s and NGL.

C r u d e oil i m p o r t s : entries into national te rri t o r y i r r e s p e c t i v e of c u s to m s b o undaries and of final destinat ion;

f e e d s t o c k s are excluded.

US Japan Euro p e

Orig in al unit b b l / d a y

kl or M /month 3 M T / m o n t h

O t h e r c o u n t r i e s

(crude p r o d u c t i o n )

b b l / d a y

- 3 0 -

Oil s t o c k s : located on national ter r i t o r y w i t h the e xc e p t i o n of m i l i t a r y stocks.

- US and Japan :

European countries:

All stocks of crude oil, of f e e d st oc ks and of finished products. US stocks i n c l u d e oil in pipelines.

S t oc k s of crude oil, f e e d s tocks , m ot o r gas oline and a v i a t i o n fuels, m i ddl e distillates, fuel oils.

Oil in pipelines excluded.

A v e r a g e cru de oil import p r i c e s : are d e r i v e d from published customs' s ta t i s t i c s by dividing the v a l u e (in national currency) of c r ud e oil imported in a g i v e n period by the c o r r e s p o n d i n g volume. For conv e rsi on into US dollars, official IMF e x c h a n g e rates are used.

S o urces

Sour c es US

API w e e k l y and m o n t h l y surveys (provisional figures)

BOM 'Monthly E n e rg y Review' (final figures)

Ex c epti ons to G e n e r a l D e f i n i t i o n s

Domes tic c o n s u m p t i o n : i n c l u d e s bunkers

Cru de oil i m p o r t s : e x c l u d i n g imports into H a w a i i a n F o r e i g n T r ade Zone

Japan

- MITI p r e l i m i n a r y report Domest ic c o n s u m p t i o n : i n c l u d e s (provisional figures)

- MITI (Monthly Statis tic a l Report on Energy'

(final figures)

- MITI 'Monthly Repo rt on E l e c t ric Power Statistics'

(crude for direc t burning)

S o u r c e s cont

S ou rc es F r a n c e

- D i r e c t i o n d e s Ca r bu r a n t - C o m i t é profe s s i o n e l du

P é t r o l e 'Bulletin Mensuel' ( p ro v isional and final

f igures)

E x c e p t i o n s to General Definit i o n s

C r u d e oil i m p o r t s : q u a n t i t i e s in transit are exc luded

Do m e s t i c c o n s u m p t i o n : qua nti t i e s sold and billed by the p etr oleum c o m p a n i e s d u r ing the mo nth under c o n s i d e r a t i o n

G e r m a n y

- B u n d e s a m t für g e wer b lic h e W i r t s c h a f t 'Mi n era l öl­

st a t i s t i k d e r Bun d esrepublik D e u t schland' (provisional and final figures)

I tal y

- M i n i s t e r o d e l l ' i n d u s t r i a e d i v e r s u (crude imports f igures)

- U n i o n e Petrolifera:

'Notizie Statistiche' ( d o m es tic c o n s u m p t i o n f i g u r e s )

N e t h e r l a n d s

- C BS M a a n s c h r i f t (provisional and final figures)

C r u d e i m p o r t s : net arrivals, i.e. a r riv als m i n us shipments

D o m e s t i c c o n s u m p t i o n : deliv er i e s in the UK and the Channel Islands i n c l udi ng p e t r o l e u m substitut es m a r k e t e d by the p e t r o l e u m industry.

T h e fig ures are i n clu sive of p e t r o l e u m i n du str y's own use UK

- D e p a r t m e n t of Ene r gy 'Energy Trends'

(pro vi sional and final f i g u r e s )

C r u d e i m p o r t s : f e e ds toc ks are included

Do m e s t i c c o n s u m p t i o n : disposal

at refineries. Return from

p e t r o c h e m i c a l s are deduc ted