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Adapting grapevine varieties to climate change: can the genetic variability meet the challenge?
Eric Duchêne, Frederic Huard, Vincent Dumas, Christophe Joseph Schneider, Didier Merdinoglu
To cite this version:
Eric Duchêne, Frederic Huard, Vincent Dumas, Christophe Joseph Schneider, Didier Merdinoglu.
Adapting grapevine varieties to climate change: can the genetic variability meet the challenge?.
ACCAE : Adaptation au changement climatique de l’agriculture et des ecosystèmes, Oct 2010,
CLERMONT-FERRAND, France. �hal-02758140�
Version postprint
Comment citer ce document :
Duchêne, E., Huard, F., Dumas, V., Schneider, C. J., Merdinoglu, D. (2010). Adapting grapevine varieties to climate change: can the genetic variability meet the challenge?. In:
Interdisciplinary congress ACCAE : "Adapting to climate change: agriculture and ecosystems",20-22 October 2010, Clermont-Ferrand (p. 18). Presented at ACCAE : Adaptation au changement climatique
de l'agriculture et des ecosystèmes, CLERMONT-FERRAND, FRA (2010-10-20 - 2010-10-22).
Adapting grapevine varieties to climate change: can the genetic variability meet the challenge?
Eric Duchêne (1) , Frédéric Huard (2) , Vincent Dumas (1) , Christophe Schneider (1) , Didier Merdinoglu (1)
(1) INRA-Université de Strasbourg, UMR 1131 Santé de la Vigne et Qualité du Vin, F-68021 Colmar, France (2) INRA, Agroclim, F-84914 Avignon, France
ACCAE :
Adaptation au Changement Climatique de l'Agriculture et des Ecosystèmes, Clermont-Ferrand, 20-23 October 2010 Conclusion
Introduction
Results
References
Duchêne E, Schneider C (2005) Grapevine and climatic changes: a glance at the situation in Alsace. Agron Sustain Dev 25:93-99
Duchêne E, Huard F, Dumas V, Schneider C, Merdinoglu D (2010) The challenge of adapting grapevine varieties to climate change. Climate Research 41:193-204
Material and methods
Compared with its timing in 1976-2008, véraison is predicted to advance by up to 23 days and mean temperatures during the 35 days following véraison are projected to increase by more than 7°C by the end of the twenty-first century for both varieties. Such changes will likely have a significant impact on grape and wine quality. We created a virtual late ripening genotype, derived from a cross between Riesling and Gewurztraminer. This modelled genotype was projected to undergo véraison 2-3 days before Muscat of Alexandria, one of the latest ripening varieties studied. Even with this virtual genotype, or with Muscat of Alexandria, grapes would ripen by the middle of the twenty-first century under higher temperatures than in the present years. Further research on the adaptation of grapevine varieties to climate change should not only consider developmental stages but also the ability of varieties to produce high quality wines under warm ripening conditions.
As for many species, climate change has already accelerated phenological stages for grapevine. We have shown that dates of véraison (onset of ripening) have advanced by more than three weeks in Alsace since the beginning of the 70s (Duchêne et al, 2005), and
consequently, average temperatures during the ripening period have increased by more than 3°C over 30 years. Empirical knowledge more than experimental data suggest that high temperatures during berry maturation are detrimental to wine quality. In this study, our purpose was i) to assess what could be the advance in grapevine phenological stages in the future in Alsace, ii) what could be the consequences on temperatures during the ripening process and finally iii) to determine which type of variety could be adapted to these forecasted conditions.
The model based on degree-days allows a good prediction of phenological stages
90 110 130 150 170 190 210 230 250 270 290
90 110 130 150 170 190 210 230 250 270 290
Predicted stage (julian day)
Simulated stage (julian day)
Mean Absolute Error = 3.1 days Root Mean Square Error = 3.7 days
Budburst Flowering
Veraison
Phenological stages should keep on advancing (
Colmar, riesling)90 110 130 150 170 190 210 230 250 270
Obs. 1976-2008
A1B-2010-2040
A1B-2041-2072
A1B-2073-2099 56
53
53
53 17/6
13/6
6/6
4/6 113*
111
104
102 22/4
20/4
14/4
12/4
69
65
61
59 26/8
16/8
8/8
3/8
…and temperatures during ripening should continue to increase
(Colmar, riesling, scenario A1B)0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Periods of time
Average température (｡C)
Tmin Tmax
10.1 21.6
1976-2008 11.7
23.7
Years with sugar>185 g/l
14.1 30.2
2003 12.6
24.8
2010-2040 15.6
29.0
2041-2072 17.3
30.6
2073-2099
798 774 756 735 711 702 696 691 685 669 667 654 653 628 597 592
500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850
Ugni blanc Cabernet Sauvignon Carignan Grenache Muscat d'Alexandrie RIxGW:0047E Kadarka Pinot noir Riesling Syrah Sauvignon Chasselas blanc Portugais bleu Gewurztraminer Limberger RIxGW:0009E
Sum of maximum temperatures base 2
There is a genetic variability of the heat sums between 15 February and budburst
675 672 666 664 656 649 649 642 641 641 635 620 604 598 589 587
570 590 610 630 650 670 690
Muscat d'Alexandrie Kadarka RIxGW:0013D Grenache Chasselas blanc Limberger Carignan Sauvignon Syrah Ugni blanc Gewurztraminer Cabernet Sauvignon Portugais bleu RIxGW:0026E Riesling Pinot noir
Sum of maximum temperatures base 10
…, for the heat sums between budburst and flowering,
1388 1381 1369 1346 1327 1291 1276 1242 1205 1193 1190 1190 1168 1107 1059 1042
1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500
Muscat d'AlexandrieCarignan Grenache RIxGW:0237E Ugni blanc Riesling Kadarka Syrah Limberger N Gewurztraminer Pinot noir Cabernet SauvignonSauvignon Portugais bleu RIxGW:0004E Chasselas blanc
Sum of maximum temperatures base 6
…and for the heat sums between flowering and véraison.
We can imagine to breed a new genotype with a late véraison date on the basis of the values observed in the progeny. This genotype should start to
ripen after Riesling and a few days before Muscat of Alexandria
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
RIxGW:47E+13D+237E
2795 2792 2771 2566 2457 2352 2345
Carignan Muscat of Alexandria Ugni blanc Riesling Gewurztraminer Chasselas blanc RIxGW:0058E
Véraison Index (degree.days)
2714
702 666 1346
Projected dates of véraison (A1B) compared to ripening temperatures.
Interpretation: during the 2041-2072 period, Muscat of Alexandria, or our virtual RIxGW child, should start to ripen around 15 August whereas to ripen under temperatures comparable to what we
currently observe in the favourable years, véraison should occur around 5 September.
28/7 7/8 17/8 27/8 6/9 16/9
2073-2100 2041-2072 2010-2040
Period
Projected date of véraison Muscat d'Alexandrie Virtual RIxGW
What is the temperature during ripening to be used to compare the
impacts of climate change?
Example for Riesling: the average mean temperature during ripening was 17.7°C for the years where the sugar content was above 185 g/l i.e. 11.5 %, potential alcohol,
level required in the Grand Cru vineyards.
8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5 11 11.5 12 12.5
10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0 22.0 24.0
Average mean temperature during 35 days after véraison (°C) from 1976 to 2008
Potential alcoholic level (%v/v)
A model for predicting budburst, flowering and veraison dates was developped using 33 years of phenological stages recorded on gewurztraminer and riesling at Bergheim (68). This model is based on degree.days calculated with maximum temperatures using different base temperatures according to the period: 2°C for 15 February to 50% budburst, 10°C for 50% budburst to 50% flowering and 6°C for 50% flowering to 50% véraison (Duchêne et al , 2010).
This model was used to predict dates of budburst, flowering and véraison for Gewurztraminer and Riesling according to the greenhouse gas emissions scenarii A2, B2 and A1B. Projected climate data for Colmar were obtained through the regionalised general circulation model ARPEGE- Climat.
This model was also used to evaluate the genetic variability of phenological parameters on 120 genotypes of progeny from a Riesling ×Gewurztraminer cross, along with 14 European varieties, all of them grown in the experimental vineyard in Bergheim (68).
Green: Riesling Red: Gewurz.
Julian day
Budburst Flowering Véraison
Dataset
*: duration of the period in days (from 15 February for budburst)
dates when the average mean temperature during the 35 following days will be 17.7°C
