HAL Id: hal-01837794
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Submitted on 3 Jun 2020
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A probabilistic model for sustainable wine growing
Philippe Abbal, G. Cargnello, Alain Carbonneau
To cite this version:
Philippe Abbal, G. Cargnello, Alain Carbonneau. A probabilistic model for sustainable wine growing.
ClimWine 2016 (Sustainable grape and wine production in the context of climate change), Apr 2016, Bordeaux, France. 152 p., 2016, Sustainable grape and wine production in the context of climate change. �hal-01837794�
Session 3, poster 44
Sustainable grape and wine production in the context of climate change, Bordeaux-France, April 10-13, 2016 Page 106
A probabilistic model for sustainable wine growing
P. Abbal1*, G. Cargnello2, A. Carbonneau3
1INRA, UMR 1083 Science for Enology, Montpellier, France
2Centro di Ricerca per la Viticoltura, Conegliano, Italy
3SupAgro, Montpellier, France
*Corresponding author: abbal@supagro.inra.fr
Objectively evaluating the quality of a vineyard in the context of climate change is not always simple. Bayesian networks are widely used for knowledge representation and reasoning under uncertainty in natural resource management. There is a rising interest for this methodology as tools for ecological and agronomic modelling. We designed a probabilistic model that takes into account the parameters defining the status of a vineyard with their associated interactions. No such model has been developed before. It includes an inference engine and software. Data were collected from vine-growing experts. The model includes a database with more than 660 grape varieties. For climate, our model uses a classification method (Tonietto and Carbonneau, 2004) involving multivariate measurements of climate on the basis of three indices: heliothermal index (HI), cool night index (CI), and dryness index (DI). Our model should ease assessments of the likely impact of the choices and decisions of vine growers on the quality of new vineyards to be planted. Thanks to this mathematical model, any kind of simulation of climate change based on the international indexes can be performed. Some examples will be presented. Same thing concerns a primary evaluation of models of sustainable Viticulture. The general frame of the GiESCO charter of sustainable Vitiviniculture is reminded on that occasion.
References :
Tonietto, J., Carbonneau, A., 2004. A multicriteria climatic classification system for grape- growing regions worldwide. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 124:1-2, 81-97.
