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Quantifying the Uncertainty in Discharge Data Using Hydraulic Knowledge and Gaugings with their Uncertainty: the BaRatin approach

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HAL Id: hal-02600782

https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02600782

Submitted on 16 May 2020

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Quantifying the Uncertainty in Discharge Data Using Hydraulic Knowledge and Gaugings with their

Uncertainty: the BaRatin approach

Benjamin Renard, Jérôme Le Coz, L. Bonnifait, F. Branger, R. Le Boursicaud, I Horner, V. Mansanarez, M. Lang, Sylvain Vigneau

To cite this version:

Benjamin Renard, Jérôme Le Coz, L. Bonnifait, F. Branger, R. Le Boursicaud, et al.. Quantifying the Uncertainty in Discharge Data Using Hydraulic Knowledge and Gaugings with their Uncertainty:

the BaRatin approach. AGU Fall Meeting, Dec 2014, San Francisco, United States. pp.1, 2014.

�hal-02600782�

(2)

Trace-of-GA@AAA-MCMC-samples Scatterplot-matrix-

Appetizer:wparametersw2wuncertainty Mainwcourse:wratingwcurvew2wuncertainty

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5

Stagexh

Q9h+

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5

Stagexh

Q9h+

Totalxuncertainty

Parametricxuncertainty Maxpostxratingxcurve Gaugings

Spaghetti-plot 9N)-uncertainty-envelops

Tom)Bayes)likes)this

100xm3/s 10xm3/s 1xm3/s 100xL/s

Activationk/kdeactivationkofkhydraulickcontrols

V)where

Akversatilekratingkcurvekequation

computed)by)continuity)for)j)>)7

control)1

riffle7 control)2 riffle)3

control)3 channelmain

control)4 floodplain segment)1

segment)2 segment)3 segment)4

Transition)stage

s

Domain)of)validity

Thekhydraulickcontrolkmatrix

Funknown.quantities.in.pinkH

Formalisationwofwthewratingwcurve

h

Q

Simplified-Manning/Strickler Channelkcontrol

h

Q

rectangular-weir

triangular-weir Sectionkcontrol

Generalkformula

segment

Ingredientw1:wHydraulics

BayesianwInference

Thekblender:kBayesktheorem

Combines-hydraulic-information-3prior2-and

information-from-gaugings-with-uncertainty-3likelihood2

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 0

1 2 3 4 5

Stagexh

Q9h+

Prior.rating.curve

MCMC samplin g

ro P

a p

gat

e th ro u gh

tin ra

c g u rv e eq u at io n

Softwarewtool:wBaRatinAGE

VGBq-freely-available-3windows-platform2 VEBA-currently-under-development:

Just-send-an-email-to-baratinBdev@listsBirsteaBfr multi/platform

propagation-to-hydrographs improved-graphical-outputs

expected-release:-end-of-EAGN more-importRexport-facilities

BaRatin-Advanced-Graphical-Environment

QuantifyingwthewUncertaintywinwDischargewDatawUsingwHydraulicwKnowledgew andwGaugingswwithwtheirwUncertainty:wthewBaRatinbwapproach

RenardV)B:V)Le)CozV)J:V)Bonnifait

M

V)L:V)BrangerV)F:V)Le)BoursicaudV)R:V)HornerV)I:V)MansanarezV)V:V)LangV)M:V)VigneauV)S:

Hydrology-Hydraulics,.Irstea.Lyon-Villeurbanne,[email protected]

+

.Now.at.Cerema.Trappes,.France.

BaRatin Recipe The Original

* Bayesian Rating Curve

Thewbasics

Ask)for a)demoM

Le)CozV)RenardV)BonnifaitV)BrangerV)Le)BoursicaudV)2014:)Combining)hydraulic)knowledge)and)uncertain)gaugings)in)the)estimation)of)hydrometric)rating)curvesO)A)Bayesian)approach:)J..Hydrol.V)509O)NP-SN%P:

Ingredientw2:wStatistics

Nobody)likes)this

Statisticalwmodel

Linkingkthekratingkcurvekwithkgaugings

Gauging)error Remnant)structural)error

Total)error

Data:wgaugingswandwtheirwuncertainty

Orderkofkmagnitudekofkstandardkdischargekuncertaintykforkakfewkgaugingkmethods

ADCP 3:NSNz

VelocitySarea

FcurrentSmeterHO))-:NSP:Nz

Surface)velocity FvideoHO)NS75z

Observed)discharge

Assumed)to)be)known Discharge)error

Uncertainty)in)observed)discharge Observed)stage

Uncertainty)in)observed)stage Stage)error

Often)assumed)to)be)negligible

ConclusionwDwperspectives

A-versatile-rating-curve-equation-elicited-by-a-hydraulic-analysis Uses-informative-priors-from-hydraulic-knowledge

Acknowledges-uncertainty-in-gaugings

Uncertainty-in-rating-curve-and-all-derived-quantities-3hydrographs2 Uncertainty-decomposition-3stage-R-parametric-R-structural2

Currentkandkfuturekresearch MainkpropertieskofkBaRatin

Stage)H

Discharge)Q(H)

Hysteresiskmodelling

250 500 750 1000

2 3 4 5

NonSunivocal)relation)with)Jones+)correction NonSunivocal)relation)without)Jones+)correction Univocal)relation

0Nz)uncertainty)interval)FparametricH Gaugings)with)0Nz)intervals

0Nz)uncertainty)interval)FtotalH

Non/univocal-rating-curves:-hysteresis@-vegetation@-rating-shifts@-etcB Model-for-remnant-structural-error:-alternatives?

Random-vsB-systematic-errors-and-their-impact-on-derived ---quantities-3eBgB-daily-R-monthly-R-annual-discharge2

Impact-of-discharge-uncertainty-on-water-balance-analyses Impact-of-discharge-uncertainty-on-hydrologic-modelling

Inclusion-of-uncertainty-in-gauged-stages-needs-further-appraisal

Impactkofkratingkcurvekuncertainty onkinterannualkmonthlykdischarge

Craponnex91969x−x2013+x−x40.9 km2

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Léchèrex91999x−x2013+x−x4.3 km2

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Monthly)discharge)[mm]

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

Bob)Manning)likes)this

Who's the

Chef !?

Surface)velocity FradarHO)NS75z Tracer)dilutionO

7:NSNz

6750 6800 6850 6900

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5

Timext

Q9t+

Totalxuncertainty

Parametricxkxstagexuncertainty Stagexuncertainty

Maxpost

Dessert:whydrographw2wuncertainty

uncertain limnigraph Propagate an

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