HAL Id: hal-02600782
https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02600782
Submitted on 16 May 2020
HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- entific research documents, whether they are pub- lished or not. The documents may come from teaching and research institutions in France or abroad, or from public or private research centers.
L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires publics ou privés.
Quantifying the Uncertainty in Discharge Data Using Hydraulic Knowledge and Gaugings with their
Uncertainty: the BaRatin approach
Benjamin Renard, Jérôme Le Coz, L. Bonnifait, F. Branger, R. Le Boursicaud, I Horner, V. Mansanarez, M. Lang, Sylvain Vigneau
To cite this version:
Benjamin Renard, Jérôme Le Coz, L. Bonnifait, F. Branger, R. Le Boursicaud, et al.. Quantifying the Uncertainty in Discharge Data Using Hydraulic Knowledge and Gaugings with their Uncertainty:
the BaRatin approach. AGU Fall Meeting, Dec 2014, San Francisco, United States. pp.1, 2014.
�hal-02600782�
Trace-of-GA@AAA-MCMC-samples Scatterplot-matrix-
Appetizer:wparametersw2wuncertainty Mainwcourse:wratingwcurvew2wuncertainty
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
Stagexh
Q9h+
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
Stagexh
Q9h+
Totalxuncertainty
Parametricxuncertainty Maxpostxratingxcurve Gaugings
Spaghetti-plot 9N)-uncertainty-envelops
Tom)Bayes)likes)this
100xm3/s 10xm3/s 1xm3/s 100xL/s
Activationk/kdeactivationkofkhydraulickcontrols
V)where
Akversatilekratingkcurvekequation
computed)by)continuity)for)j)>)7
control)1
riffle7 control)2 riffle)3
control)3 channelmain
control)4 floodplain segment)1
segment)2 segment)3 segment)4
Transition)stage
s
Domain)of)validity
Thekhydraulickcontrolkmatrix
Funknown.quantities.in.pinkH
Formalisationwofwthewratingwcurve
h
Q
Simplified-Manning/Strickler Channelkcontrol
h
Q
rectangular-weir
triangular-weir Sectionkcontrol
Generalkformula
segment
Ingredientw1:wHydraulics
BayesianwInference
Thekblender:kBayesktheorem
Combines-hydraulic-information-3prior2-and
information-from-gaugings-with-uncertainty-3likelihood2
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 0
1 2 3 4 5
Stagexh
Q9h+
Prior.rating.curve
MCMC samplin g
ro P
a p
gat
e th ro u gh
tin ra
c g u rv e eq u at io n
Softwarewtool:wBaRatinAGE
VGBq-freely-available-3windows-platform2 VEBA-currently-under-development:
Just-send-an-email-to-baratinBdev@listsBirsteaBfr multi/platform
propagation-to-hydrographs improved-graphical-outputs
expected-release:-end-of-EAGN more-importRexport-facilities
BaRatin-Advanced-Graphical-Environment
QuantifyingwthewUncertaintywinwDischargewDatawUsingwHydraulicwKnowledgew andwGaugingswwithwtheirwUncertainty:wthewBaRatinbwapproach
RenardV)B:V)Le)CozV)J:V)Bonnifait
MV)L:V)BrangerV)F:V)Le)BoursicaudV)R:V)HornerV)I:V)MansanarezV)V:V)LangV)M:V)VigneauV)S:
Hydrology-Hydraulics,.Irstea.Lyon-Villeurbanne,[email protected]
+
.Now.at.Cerema.Trappes,.France.
BaRatin Recipe The Original
* Bayesian Rating Curve
Thewbasics
Ask)for a)demoM
Le)CozV)RenardV)BonnifaitV)BrangerV)Le)BoursicaudV)2014:)Combining)hydraulic)knowledge)and)uncertain)gaugings)in)the)estimation)of)hydrometric)rating)curvesO)A)Bayesian)approach:)J..Hydrol.V)509O)NP-SN%P:
Ingredientw2:wStatistics
Nobody)likes)this
Statisticalwmodel
Linkingkthekratingkcurvekwithkgaugings
Gauging)error Remnant)structural)error
Total)error
Data:wgaugingswandwtheirwuncertainty
Orderkofkmagnitudekofkstandardkdischargekuncertaintykforkakfewkgaugingkmethods
ADCP 3:NSNz
VelocitySarea
FcurrentSmeterHO))-:NSP:Nz
Surface)velocity FvideoHO)NS75z
Observed)discharge
Assumed)to)be)known Discharge)error
Uncertainty)in)observed)discharge Observed)stage
Uncertainty)in)observed)stage Stage)error
Often)assumed)to)be)negligible
ConclusionwDwperspectives
A-versatile-rating-curve-equation-elicited-by-a-hydraulic-analysis Uses-informative-priors-from-hydraulic-knowledge
Acknowledges-uncertainty-in-gaugings
Uncertainty-in-rating-curve-and-all-derived-quantities-3hydrographs2 Uncertainty-decomposition-3stage-R-parametric-R-structural2
Currentkandkfuturekresearch MainkpropertieskofkBaRatin
Stage)H
Discharge)Q(H)
Hysteresiskmodelling
250 500 750 1000
2 3 4 5
NonSunivocal)relation)with)Jones+)correction NonSunivocal)relation)without)Jones+)correction Univocal)relation
0Nz)uncertainty)interval)FparametricH Gaugings)with)0Nz)intervals
0Nz)uncertainty)interval)FtotalH
Non/univocal-rating-curves:-hysteresis@-vegetation@-rating-shifts@-etcB Model-for-remnant-structural-error:-alternatives?
Random-vsB-systematic-errors-and-their-impact-on-derived ---quantities-3eBgB-daily-R-monthly-R-annual-discharge2
Impact-of-discharge-uncertainty-on-water-balance-analyses Impact-of-discharge-uncertainty-on-hydrologic-modelling
Inclusion-of-uncertainty-in-gauged-stages-needs-further-appraisal
Impactkofkratingkcurvekuncertainty onkinterannualkmonthlykdischarge
Craponnex91969x−x2013+x−x40.9 km2
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Léchèrex91999x−x2013+x−x4.3 km2
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Monthly)discharge)[mm]
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
Bob)Manning)likes)this
Who's the
Chef !?
Surface)velocity FradarHO)NS75z Tracer)dilutionO
7:NSNz
6750 6800 6850 6900
0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
Timext
Q9t+
Totalxuncertainty
Parametricxkxstagexuncertainty Stagexuncertainty
Maxpost
Dessert:whydrographw2wuncertainty
uncertain limnigraph Propagate an