How to correctly assess mortality benefits in public policies

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(1)How to correctly assess mortality benefits in public policies Olivier Chanel, Pascale Scapecchi, Jean-Christophe Vergnaud. To cite this version: Olivier Chanel, Pascale Scapecchi, Jean-Christophe Vergnaud. How to correctly assess mortality benefits in public policies. Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, Taylor & Francis (Routledge): STM, Behavioural Science and Public Health Titles, 2006, 49 (5), pp.759 - 776. �10.1080/09640560600850150�. �halshs-00150092�. HAL Id: halshs-00150092 https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00150092 Submitted on 30 May 2007. HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access archive for the deposit and dissemination of scientific research documents, whether they are published or not. The documents may come from teaching and research institutions in France or abroad, or from public or private research centers.. L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires publics ou privés..

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(139) `«ca^=]i^ = eRb]"«_actv>½cau½`"®c45]wu Z],`>[ [s]©.`cau½ctu eRbk]p«=~\5_a`°ehca«Zu `wu=^½©U\lqTe5] `,qrqT\5©]w^µeh« Z]"]i§k« qs]w^µeh« «eRb=]>[ vw«=© 5]°eRcau~®½©«=[Teh`>_acfeR [dcqF¹ ¦ `wveh«Z[rq°«=u=]¸.`> «=[ `nu=«~eRb=]>[dWeRb=]> ¸.c2_2_:]Pvw«k\u,eh]w^ `,q+^=]i`°eRbq T[d]w©]w©]>[jlc ®~\[s] m «eRb cau=^=ctvw`°eh«=[rq cauv>[s]w`~qd] \u,eFca_%eRbk] «=~\_2èRca«Zu [d]wìvbk]~q½`wu=«~eRb=]n[qReh]w`w^~·qTeh`°eh] v>«=[R[d]qF«=u=^=cau~® e±« QFu¯` ®c4]wu+=],`>[ tWeRb=]>^=]>]wu=^¯«ZueRb=]cau=cfehc2`w__t]i5]w_« ¦ ]°§k« qR\[d] GW `nu=êRbk] caueh]>[s`w v°ehca«Zu « ¦ eRb [d]w]`>[d`w©]°eh]>[rq°leRbk] _a]>]w_$« ¦ [d]w^\5veRca«Zu ∆dWeRb=] _]u ®~eRb « ¦ eRca©]%\'u,eFca_UeRbk]p«_actv>£cq ¦ \'_t_ ½ct©_t]w©]u,eh]w^ +`>uk^ eRb]"`>[d`w©]°eh]>[rq « ¦ eRbk]µ[dc±qh¹ ¦ \5u=v°ehca«=u τ .

(140). . ∆. 7. N.

(141)

(142) ! "#$ % '&()*"+%,-./.0 21"!")&( 3 4!. ³]e\

(143) qM`>[FcfeR[d`>[dca_ "q´]eeRbk] qdb=`>[s]« ¦ eRb=]+qdb=«=[TeRD2eh]>[F© ] ¦T¦ ]wv°edq 8 7 5,6 `°e$Y' « ¦ eRbk]¼eh«eh`n_ ]§v,]qrq¯[dcqF¹£cau eRb=] [d]w©`wc uk^]n[¯« ¦ eRb=]P`>]>[dW`q c2u jlca®~\[d]µY

(144) :?I«Zu'qdct^=]>[ ¦ ca[rqTeeRbk] cau ¦ _4\ ]wu=vw]« ¦ τ 9;: `wuk^ £«=u eRbk] u\5©.5]n[O« ¦ ^=]i`°eRb'qO`>Z«ca^=]w^'jlca®~\[d] ¡ [d]>=[d]~qd]wu,edqeRbk] eRca©] u=],vw],qqd`>[F eh«+«k eh`>cau eRb=] ¦ \5_2_] ¦T¦ ],v°edq ¦ «=[ τ 9;: »¯`wu=^+^=c ¦R¦ ]>[d]wue5`w_4\5]q:« ¦ ±eRbk] eRca©] _t`>

(145) qd] `w_±qs«"^=]>]wu=^'q-«Zu WA \=e qs«µqd_ ca®beh_4%eRb=èOcfeM^=«]q:uk«ke-qFb=«~¸ \"cau+eRb] jlca®~\[d] j

(146) [s]>u=vwb©«=[Teh`>_acfeR^=`°eh`¸.]>[d]\

(147) qs]wÛeR«v>bk`>[d`wv>eh]>[Fc !,]eRb=]Ocau=cfeFct`w_

(148) qTeh]w`w^~qTeh`°eh]~ < jlc4®~\[s] ¡ `«~\=ebk]>[d] Q ¦ eRb=] [d]i^\5v°eFc«Zu£cq vw«© _t]°eh] `>u=^ cau'qRehù,eh`>u=]i«k\

(149) q dWcfeeh`>¹]q «=u=] k]w`w[ τ 9: eR«%qs]°]wu Z]`n[rq τ 9: eh«+«~~eh`>cau¯ o « ¦ eRb=] ©`>§c2© \'© ] ¦T¦ ]wv°e´'Q ¦

(150) Y o Z]w`>[rqsWXeRbk] u\5© 5]>[:« ¦ ]w`>[´q cqO[d]~qF]iv°eFc4Z]_a = `wuk^ ¤lAb,\

(151) q cfeG`>=]w`n[rqOeRb=`°eI¸-b=]u 9;: ¼c uqTeh]wì^ « ¦ 9;: ceeh`>¹]q$©«Z[s].k]w`>[rqeh«[d]wìv>bb`w_ ¦ eRb=]«kZ]>[d`w_a_]wu=] ¦ cedqdW τ `nu=^ m=o ©«=[d] ]i`>[rqUτeh«"[d]wìv>b ¢=¢ « ¦ eRb]+«~]>[s`_t_Z]uk] ¦ cfedq b=]wu%eRbk] eh]>[F© « ¦ eRbk] «=_actvic±q

(152) Y o T]w`n[rq Ocau'qTeh]i`w^+« ¦ WAcfeeh`>¹]qG`°5«~\~e = ©«Z[s].k]w`>[qIeR«+[d]w`wvnb ¦ c ¦ eF ]n[dvw]>u,e« ¦ eRb=]$«kZ]>[d`w_a_]wu=] ¦ cedq Cca©¬ct_t`>[[s]kqR\'_edq`n[d]U«~~eh`wcau=]i^.¸cfehb eRb=]:`>==[d«`wv>bc ueh]>[d© q« ¦ u\5© 5]>[« ¦ _tc ¦ ]M]w`n[°q qs`>]w^%~\=e:eRb=] eRca©]uk],vw]qqd`n[s eh«µ«~~eh`nc u%eRbk] ¦ \5_a_]wu=] ¦ cfedqcq _«u~®]>[b=c±qcq \'ceh] uk«Z[d©`w_Iqdcauvw]`^=],`°eRb¯`>«c^=]w^¯`°eG^=`°eh] vn«k\u,edq:`q:` bk]w`w_feFb+Z]u] ¦ cfeG`°eG^=`°eh] cau eRbk] @ V

(153) S L `>==[s«`wvnb ¸b=]n[d]w`~q£c u eRb=](@¬1³ 0C `n==[r«`wv>bkW eRbk] k]w`n[rq£« ¦ _ c ¦ ] q´`>Z]w^ vi«Z[R[d]qh«Zuk^Zcau~® eh«µeRb=]%«'qTeRk«Zuk]w^ ^=]w`°eRb qh=[d]w`w^ «k5]n[ eRb=]"]>§=]wveh]w^ [d]w©`wc ucau=® _tc ¦ ] N.

(154). N. . . N.

(155).

(156).

(157). . . ".

(158). N. . ". N. . N. nm.

(159) ]§=],v°eh`>ukvi¬`°eX^=èh] aW=c]~~`reX^=èh] 2W a W a

(160) YW2a4 b\

(161) qsW]wvw«=u=«©¬ctvvw«Zuqd] \5]wuvw],q¸ct_a_5] qT\'qReh`>uehca`w_tW]qF]ivct`w_2_a ¸.b=]wu ^Zcq´vw«~\ue [s`°eh]qG`>[d]¬b=c¾®bkWqdc ukv,].eRb=]vw«=© ~\=eh`°eRca«=uqO© \

(162) qReeRb=]>ueh`>¹] caueh«¯`wviv>«~\ueeRca© ] _`>qs]qG« ¦ \eR« m=o =],`>[´q5] ¦ «=[d]c ukvw_\5^=cau=® eRbk]]>uehc4[d] ]wu=] ¦ cfedqnQF®=u=«=[Fc4u ® eRbk]~qd]UeRca© ]iDs_t`>®

(163) q$_2]i`w^ q e±«`>u«~]>[d],qTeRca©`°eFc«Zu« ¦ eRb=]e±«eh`>_^Zcqsvw«k\u,eh]w^ u\5© 5][X« ¦ ^=]wèRbq`>«ca^=]w^' >. 8. 8. /$ 4$$% /.0 ;# 0 # #3% /.0 ; $*"%# +%". ³]e\

(164) q$vw«=u'qdca^]>[bk«k¸ vw]qqdèFca«=u _2`n®q$` ¦R¦ ],v°eeRb=]Ueh«eh`_^=c±q´vi«k\u,eh]w^¬@ V

(165) S L ùk^ @ ³10 CW `nu=ÛeRb=]Ovw«=uqs] \5]wu=v,]q« ¦ ca®u=«=[Fcau~® eRb=]w© b=]e±«eh`>_^Zcqsvw«k\u,eh]w^ u\5© 5]>[« ¦ «=_ac2v>ZDT[d]w_t`°eh]w^^=]w`rebqAìZ«ca^=]w^cqn ¢

(166)

(167) τ ∆ =

(168) τ ∆ . δ +δ. ¸-b=]n[d] δ ^=]uk«keh],qeRb=]`wu=u\5`w_^Zcq´vw«~\ue$[d`reh]~'S cqsvw«k\u,eFcau ®[s] ¦ _t],v°edqeRb=]caueh]>[s`wv°eRca«=u « ¦ eh]n© «Z[s`_¨=[d] ¦ ]>[s]>uvw] [d]w_t`°ehc4] eh« ^=]w`reRbq `>Z«ca^=],^º`°e ^~c ¦F¦ ]>[d]wue ^=`°eh],q `>uk^ eRb] «===«=[e\u~cfeR vw«'qTe$« ¦ ]wvw«=u=«©ctv[d]qd«~\[dvw],q:^=]>«~eh]w^ eR« eRbk] ~\=_2ctv b=]i`_eFb+«_ ctv>5b] ©`>[h¹]°ecau,eh]>[d]qRe[d`reh] c2qI®]wu=]>[s`_t_ vw«=uqdct^=]>[s]w^ `,q$`.5`w_ac2^ `>==[d«~§ca©`°eFc«Zu `wu=^ δ cqeRbk] qR\=n¶´]vel« ¦ Ùqs]uqdcfehc5cfeR`wuk`_a'qćqbk]>[d]°\5u=^=]n[" ! bk]wu eRb=]vw]~qrq´`°eRc«Zu _t`>®+cqca®u=«=[d]w^ Tc]~ τ 9: dWeRb=]UeR«eh`>_l^=cqdvw«~\ueh]wû\5© 5]w[ « ¦ «_actv>DT[s]_t`°eh]i^ ^=]w`°eRbq `>«ca^=]w^ cq uk«keh]i^ #$ % δ, ∆). ?_t]w`>[d_45W #$ % ]°§vi]w]w^q #&$ % δ, τ 9;: ∆) ¦ «Z[ τ 9: o b] δ, ∆) ct©«Z[eh`>u=vi] « ¦ eRb] 4 vw]qqs`°ehca«Zu·_t`>® vw`wu»] «~~eh`wcau=]w^»= vw«=u'qdct^=]>[dc u ®»eRb=] [d`°ehca« + ' ./012 * ,, 3 46 « #$ % δ, ∆) eR« ( τ 57 ( ( ∆ eRbk`°elu=]w]i^qeR« ]O`>=_ac2]i^-eh8 δ( ≡ ./01 2 * ,-, ) + ' ( ( (∆ δ( ®]e'eRb=]Ovn«Z[h[d]wvre'`w_f\ ]~ jl«=[F©`w_a_ :W 9 ^=]>]wu=^'q «Zu ¦ c45] `>[d`w©]°eh]>[rq° δ, τ 9;: `>u=^ ∆ `>u^ qdca© \5_2èFca«=u'qb`>]MZ]w]wu ©`w^=]eh`>¹cau ®^=c ¦R¦ ]>[s]u,eZ`_4\5]~q ¦ «=[eRb=],qd]O`>[d`w©]°eh]>[rq'Ccau=vi]Uu=« qh]wvwc ¦ ctv.[dcqF¹ ¦ `wv°eh«=[b=`qZ]w]wu+qd]w_t],v°eh]w^=W¸]-vw`>u vw«=uqdct^=]>[eRbk`°eeRb=]:«_ac2v>kDF©`>¹']n[I`wc2© q e±«¬[d]i^\5vw]eRb=]O[d]w_a`°ehc4]O[ cqh¹ ¦ [d«© eR« ]Mbk`>]:vw«Zu'qdct^=]>[s]w^ Ù_`>[F®]O[d`wu~®]:« ¦ Z`w_\5]~q ¦ «=[eRb=]`n[d`>©]°eh]>[rq° ∞ =.