HAL Id: halshs-02499068
https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-02499068
Preprint submitted on 5 Mar 2020
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The Impact of Conflict and Political Instability on
Banking Crises in Developing Countries
Ali Compaore, Montfort Mlachila, Rasmané Ouedraogo, Sandrine Sourouema
To cite this version:
Ali Compaore, Montfort Mlachila, Rasmané Ouedraogo, Sandrine Sourouema. The Impact of Conflict and Political Instability on Banking Crises in Developing Countries. 2020. �halshs-02499068�
0 5 10 15 20 25 197 1 197 2 197 3 197 4 197 5 197 6 197 7 197 8 197 9 198 0 198 1 198 2 198 3 198 4 198 5 198 6 198 7 198 8 198 9 199 0 199 1 199 2 199 3 199 4 199 5 199 6 199 7 199 8 199 9 200 0 200 1 200 2 200 3 200 4 200 5 200 6 200 7 200 8 200 9 201 0 201 1 201 2 201 3 201 4 201 5 201 6
-5 0 5 1 0 1 5 5 10 15 20 25
Number of countries in conflict
Pr(𝑌
𝑖𝑡= 1|𝑋
𝑖𝑡−1, 𝐶
𝑖) = 𝐹(𝑋
𝑖𝑡−1𝛽 + 𝐶
𝑖) = 𝑋
𝑖𝑡−1𝛽 + 𝐶
𝑖+ 𝜀
𝑖𝑡𝑌
𝑖𝑡𝑖
𝑡 𝑋
𝑖𝑡−1𝛽
𝐶
𝑖𝜀
𝑖𝑡𝐶
𝑖+ 𝜀
𝑖𝑡𝐶
𝑖𝑋
𝑖𝑡𝑋
𝑖𝑡𝐶
𝑖𝐸(𝜀
𝑖𝑡|𝑋
𝑖𝑡, 𝐶
𝑖)= 0
=
𝐶
𝑖𝛽
𝑋
𝑖𝑡𝑋
̅
𝑖𝐶
𝑖= 𝜔 + 𝑋
̅ 𝛿 + 𝑎
𝑖 𝑖𝑋
̅
𝑖𝑋
𝑖𝑡𝑖
𝑎
𝑖𝑋
̅
𝑖𝑌
𝑖𝑡= 1
Pr(𝑌
𝑖𝑡= 1|𝑋
𝑖𝑡, 𝐶
𝑖) = Pr(𝑌
𝑖𝑡= 1|𝑋
𝑖𝑡, 𝑋
̅ , 𝐶
𝑖 𝑖)
= 𝐹(𝑋
𝑖𝑡𝛽 + 𝜔 + 𝑋
̅ 𝛿 + 𝑎
𝑖 𝑖) = 𝑋
𝑖𝑡𝛽 + 𝑋
̅ 𝛿 + 𝑎
𝑖 𝑖+ 𝜀
𝑖𝑡•
•
•
•
•
•
•
.0 5 .1 .1 5 P ro b a b il it y o f b a n k in g c ri s is 0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1 Probability of conflict .0 5 .1 .1 5 .2 P ro b a b il it y o f b a n k in g c ri s is 0 1 2 Intensity of conflict
.0 5 .1 .1 5 .2 .2 5 .3 P ro b a b il it y o f b a n k in g c ri s is 0 1 2 3 4
Number of cabinet changes
.0 5 .1 .1 5 .2 .2 5 .3 P ro b a b il it y o f b a n k in g c ri s is 0 1 2 3 4
Number of changes in effective executive
.0 4 .0 6 .0 8 .1 .1 2 P ro b a b il it y o f b a n k in g c ri s is 0 2 4 6 8 10
Number of anti-government demonstrations
0 .2 .4 .6 P ro b a b il it y o f b a n k in g c ri s is 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Number of government crises
.0 5 .1 .1 5 .2 P ro b a b il it y o f b a n k in g c ri s is 0 1 2 3 4
Number of general strikes
.0 5 .1 .1 5 .2 P ro b a b il it y o f b a n k in g c ri s is 0 2 4 6 8 10 Assassinations