Probabilité d'apparition d'un phénomène parasitaire et choix de modèles de régression logistique

(1)

HAL Id: hal-00762437

https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00762437

Submitted on 29 Sep 2013

HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access

archive for the deposit and dissemination of

sci-entific research documents, whether they are

pub-lished or not. The documents may come from

teaching and research institutions in France or

abroad, or from public or private research centers.

L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est

destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents

scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non,

émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de

recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires

publics ou privés.

Probabilité d’apparition d’un phénomène parasitaire et

choix de modèles de régression logistique

Florian Tolle, François-Pierre Tourneux

To cite this version:

Florian Tolle, François-Pierre Tourneux. Probabilité d’apparition d’un phénomène parasitaire et choix

de modèles de régression logistique. Huitièmes rencontres de Théo Quant, Jan 2007, Besançon, France.

http://thema.univ-fcomte.fr/theoq/pdf/2007/TQ2007%20ARTICLE%2017.pdf. �hal-00762437�

(2)

123345 6785 129AB49C5 675 D785 EFF85 DA235 A2B5 9B5 B2B45 AA45 45 2C5 45 2345 45 AA42B5 329485 B5 5 623!45 "7#$75 %A7&85 123456745689A3ABC456D4E2FE3456746F69E385'4B(2B75 )**+5,-./#./0751A34554B53B45345,-5A5EFF75

1

7 8 B D B 9 9 B 3 7 E 9 9 4 4 ! ! 4 7 6 " 2 B 3 # C D 6 4 7 " # E !9

12345467689ABC5DD526863EABCFEAD9E3EAD52568562A

8A36ABA3B7ABA29263EA73686FAA

123456789322AB81467C35D8E5A44A893F47AF8

123452647589ABCDE9FD99F78576C98952B8 4!6C9 "#95$89DC%829&9#'9(82)495289 *+4572,64++8-$7 *4!68,*59999*5247,64$58$.-$7 *4!68,*59

1

2 3 1 * # $ 4 5 * 5 5 6 5 * 7 2 5 5 523245 34555555 6A42B532945 BA4555555555555 $29A4563$5 2232B5 A8455

1

_{445 A2495 232945 2B5 45 395 4B5 395 9A944B5 2A5 :5 345 45 2935 45 35}

945 345 45 45 35 232B75 $45 A89C5 2B5 BA344B5 29A5 95 45 4A45 4B5 84B454592;4A5452BB2B5454B94A5458A345298B54C394A5349A5A4B475445 AA45 BA45 45 2BB45 BA45 B445 35 45 4B5 <98A45 45 245 9945 245 35 AA42B5 32945 BA485 95 4A45 A94A5 :5 945 B332B5 9B45 A235 45 A4B454534B52B45BA!7545392B52A49A4545945B332B5B445 3452C59B5493545A23529A59BA5345AA45:5A945295B5A9454524A82B7545 24563$54A45459BA545493545452A4BA45A4B53452B94B4545452C75 =5 AA5 9B45 45 45 2BB45 232945 2B9433485 3949A5 2345 2B5 5 BA5 45 475 >45 B45 ;4A5 2B5 5 A85 B5 34B8A2BB44B5 45 2B5 :5 A25 43345 B3;475 445 A235 A945 :5 945 B332B5 A5 345 2345 2B5 5 A4A4B45 344B5 45 95 2BB45 9B5 2935 B4AA2B5 45 35 AA2B5 4B945 45 B332B5 2BB75 445 8A345 4B945 :5 45 A25 B849C5 43345 2B5 2B95 :5 94A5 45 ;245 9B5 9C5 949A5 ;4A5 95 4BA4B5 4B5 ?495 B5 345 A2495 2329475

4A2B54592;4A545A94524B4352B9459B5A44A5A937

5

@ A B 5 C 3 6 > * 5 5 1 ' * 1 6 1 $ 1 5 *3544232;5 'BA;5325 A4A42B555555555555 63$59A845 DA48452433B5

1

6E52A73686A2263EA32AD2B686A3B776EA6EAD6B6373A A423235A2445A45B2D59B5355B52433B522375145B52?4845295 25435AE59452B5B54B9;B524B352BB2B529A45B592A5345 295 4C3BB5 4A5 323F2B75 G435 5 294B5 A2845 BA;5 %;33;5 A44B4H4B4&5 B5 495425955BA;5325A4A42B5845254594751542529952B5B55 A23;5 92A5 45 24B5 295 B4A475 15 24A2A5 392B5 295 45 345 5 4B5 2B945 9B5 5 A23;5 A42375 145 425 945 25 CF45 5 A4235 5 3345 45 63$5 9A845 D5 2B5 B5 8B5 5 A4A44B2B5 295 45 4829A5 295 45 2435 B5 4B5 25 2245 45 235 83945 25 AB45 4D44B5 B4845 B5 2845 A42B75 7B5 5 2B5 5 4423235485484A352435D4A454B4A45B544754B45B4584544B54A845 B5 45 4B8A2B4B5 295 45 2B5 5 A445 345 3484375 DA23;5 83945 33245 25 45 345 D4A45 4B5 33;5 A4A44B485 8B5 B5 B5 2B5 45 4C445 42A35 4A2B5 295 2BB453475IA3454B945B5452435D4A454B594525435;245525 D5 3B45 92A5 5 3;5 5 A2345 B5 4423235 A24475 145 293BB5 295 24B35 5AE5A4555A49352959A52AB45B54542A;52954375

(3)

12 2 2 2 1 $ % % & ' ( ) 9 A ( * + , * A ( ) 9 - ( 9 1 . , 9 $ / * 9

1

AE823BF863EA 445 345 :5 8449A5 2B5 95 <9A5 45 A23945 45 B5 939475 $45 8449A5 2B5 BA344B5 45 B9C5 985 4B5 92B2B5 45 349A5 AA9452329485452BB4B85AB2A# 4B545AB44B53454B52B475>4584A45 B9A45 %8A985 A48J&85 45 4B5 4B4BA4B5 345 843244B5 45 345 B944945 95 4B5 45 35 2932B5 9B475 $45 A2495 232945 92B5 32?45 45 B2A49C5 A89C5 ;B5 A429A5 9C5 29354535945345454535232B75445 95 AB35 45 45 A44A45 45 45 4A45 4B5 84B45 45 92;4A5 45 2BB2B5 2AB5 45 4B94A5458A345298B54C394A535A4B45 45 45 92;4A75 45 2BBB45 45 45 AA45 A4B45 9B5 29345 4B?495 5 295 2A85 B5 345 45 29A85 9B5 42B5 B92A2B5 45 35 2932B5 45 35 45 4B5 345 45 49A45 45 A242B5 8B5 :5 B4A5 345 2BB2B5 9B45K5 985 B5 345 45 395 32B85 35 A222B5 45 49A45 45 42B5 95A945BA4545452BAL3454529A45A2A4545 3475 445 AA45 BA45 45 2BB45 BA45 %B5H53485A4B452954B459B5A4&5B5 945 345 99935 B332BB45 45 45 A2345 45 2BB45 B44B5 35 45 4B5 <98A45 45 245 99475 'A22E4A5 436 75 %EFFE&5 B94B5 945 345 2345 45 A82B5 29AA4B45 45 45 A92B5 9B54B52B452B52984B59545234545 AA42B5 32945 BA475 >B5 349A5 A89C5 9A5 35 2245 4B5 19A9485 'A22E4A5 435 75 %EFF,&5 44B5 4B5 <98A45 45 23475 >45 !485 CB5 435 75 %EFFE&5 2B5 935 445 245 29A5 4B94A5 345 8A345 ;B5 345 395 92A5 24B435 45 AB2B5 4BA45345B332B529545345B332B5B95 B53455453594A9324528B459562;94#7B75 +29582B53959B45A2453A45:53B3;45 45949A545A94525:59B45F22B245AB945 4B5 6AB475 4B22245 3823A485 345 A845 945A5345<99595B5B229452AEF2F22956 C93AF29A585 45 9B45 345 2BA45 245 4A4B45 4B5 943345 25 2BB945 45 32B945 45 %AE4A5 435 785 EFFF&75 45 92B5 232945 4B5 6AB45 B45 29A5 349A45 945 A43344B5 2BB9475 $4AB45 F2B45 4B45 95 B2A#45 45 35 6AB45 45 95 295 $4BA35 2B5 95 32?45 45 93345 A89C5 %D8;5 435 785 ,/M5 K5 194A5 435 785 ,/-&75 445 4992A5 2B?2B54539B84A5456AB4#$285453A6N,₅₄₅ 45 316**1E_{5 2B5 4A5 45 2B94A5 9B45 45 45} 2BB459A535F22B2454B56AB4545B24B5B5345 A44B5 95 >2985 F2B45 4B45 45 4AAB5 945 A44B95 29A5 445 A245 %99A45 ,&75 15 AA5 45452BB452B943345A4B4BB59A535A4B45 95 A45 A42B345 45 3B22245 3823A485

1111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111

2 1AB4B45B4AA44B3454539452BA4535645459A45 N22B247₁ 3₁_{14B456AB(4545*9A5*BA4545134B7}₁ 3949A5 2345 2B5 5 BA5 45 475 445 34B5 A95 4BA45 3B942B5 45 L45 95 A45 45 345 A99A45 ;A45 %OA929C5 435 785 EFFP&5 B295 5 2B95 :5 4C32A4A5 35 5 4C32B5 45 B45 ;4A75 4;245 245 5 45 945 35 4AB45 95 ;345 AA45 B5 35 AB2B5 2AEF 2F22956 C93AF29A55 :5 3245 45 9C5 L45 495 4C394A5 A5 345 AA945 45 345 A99A45 ;A475 )35 4A5 B5 2345 4B94A5 45 ;45:5A9459A53453B52329475

1

6F2A A !9D5286863EA D58657A BA "#A 95E86773EA $B3E8A %A D328F2A BFA D52568&A BA A BA 2E52BA B5EA7AB9D528E8ABFA'3F4A

(A'3EE9A8A983BA

445,-05B332B52B345B5345>2952B54A85 45 45 95 3935 B45 45 222B5 45 45 2B99A2B5 ;A475 $45 3935 2B5 5 A35 :5 AA5 9B45 45 )6*5 345 :5 9B45 A2392B5 45 E05 A475 445 B5 24B945 4A45 45 AA4A5 3292B5 95 235 4B5 ,F5 2A475 445 2C5 45 343345 :5 3943345 A84A5 345 B45 ;4A5 5 5 499495 A5 B3;45 A345 45 C2B5 45 3A2B5 ;A45 B5 34B8A2BB44B5 45 2B85 A5 9B45 245 945 45 623!45 435 5 %EFFE&75 42?495 5 5 45 4A45 4B5 84B45 345 B849C5433459C9435345;4545B332B5 295 45 B94B5 345 395 B444B5 45 ;45 45B332B5 B9751B85A2543345B3;45 2B5 5 A44B945 2AA42BB5 A44844B5 :5 9B5 A;2B5 45 -FF85 EEFF5 45 M--05 A45 929A5 45 B332B75 7B5 AB5 B2A45 B45 ;4A5 3945 %2OA35 435 85 EFFE&5 2B5 5 3935 45 BA2952458A345B534523475

>B5349A5A89C59A53594A9324528B485CB543575 %EFFE&52B593535AA42B532945BA475$445

(4)

1 $ % % & ' ( ) 9 A ( * + , * A ( ) 9 - ( 9 1 . , 9 $ / * 9 9 9 9 39 395 92A5 24B435 45 AB2B5 4BA45 345

B332B5 295 45 345 B332B5 B975 445 234545AA42B532945954B54595A945 :5 945 B332B5 9B5 2A45 45 A235 45 A4B45 45 34B5 2B45 BA!75 432B5 45 AA45 45 45 2345 :5 35 235 45 3445 945 4A45 24BA5 9B45 45 32345 95 A945 45 A4B45 4B975 7B5 4935 45 A235 25 !A45 25 29A5 9BA5 345 AA45 :5 A945 295 B5 A945 45 99A4B45 24A82B75 7B45 245 4C45 29A5 9BA5 45 49385 45 35 245 63$5 %64484A# 34A2A5 $A4A&5 %24F85 ,/-&85 95 2B45 :5 24BA59B458932B59522A44B59523485 454A45452A4BA45A4B53452B94B45 95 2C5 95 49375 45 29A45 63$5 24B5 4B5 4B5 4B5A4A8529A59458349A54549385354B35%345 29A4B45 B332B5 295 2AA444B5 3&5 45 35 95 %345 29A4B45 B332B5 B95 2AA444B5 3&5 %OA4B4A5 436 85 EFFF&75 4A452953529A4859B45245317$5%1A457B4A5 $9A84&85 2BB45 9B45 42B5 45 35 4A92AB45 95 23475D3954458349A545A24545,853953452345 AB45 B444B5 45 45 BA45 9B45 4BA45 34529545345B9854BA45329AA4B454534B45 95B2B4595%D4A454564AA4A85EFFF&755 4B3;45 945 A5 AA42B5 32945 BA45 5 5 2B945 9C5 A25 B849C5 43345 A44B975 445

=5 945 485 35 8A345 35 2B5 B9845 45 A4A45 95 2345 45 345 2345 45 45 :5 B298495 ?99:5 45 945 2945 345 8A345 A4B45 24B5 B984529853455B85?99:533B2B545 2945 345 8A3475 45 A45 45 2B992B5 A2A45 :5 945 2345 45 BA45 93B4B5 4B5 92B2B5 45 35 8349A5 45 9A45 A45 A5 39349A75 $445 A45 A4B4B45 9A5 35 4B35 45 35 95 45 2345459A5349A54A92AB45323475)354523485 29A5 9B5 2345 2BB85 4BA4A4A5 345 8349A5 45 35 A2353934529A5945B897545A2B5 453B8954B52952954B5B954B54B94595 2C5 9B45 8349A5 45 4935 AB5 345 49C5 A2945 24A82B75 D29A5 945 23485 345 24994B5 45 A235 B25 4'_{5 B295 A4B4B45 9A5 345 AL345 ?295 A5} 945 8A345 B5 35 A2B75 >45 8349A5 45 4'₅ 9A49A45 :5 ,5 B94B5 99B45 94B2B5 45 8349A5 45 35 8A345 4BAQB45 9B45 94B2B5 45 35 A23545A2B54B529545B332B75195 2BAA485458349A5454'5_{B9A49A45:5,5B94B545} 8A3459594B4B535A23545A2B54B5 295 45 3B332B5 9B5 349A5 8349A5 4B75 >B534C4345952345:5EEFF5A45953495,85 49C5 8A345 2B5 B5 9B45 B9394B45 2845 45 49C5 2B59B45B9394B45B8475 5

1

)5475FAA*3B7ABA29263EA73686FA46E562A+AFEA253EABC5E57ABA((,,A 42A9454523452B53853558394A5349A5 4A92AB4545BA45:5499494A59B52C5A2BB5 45:52BB4A59B45B4AA2B5?94545A935954B5 2B5 975 D3949A5 2?495 4984B5 !A45 4B885 B4B5 9B45 A245 99A4B45 45 AA45 45 4B35 45 45 975 >B5 9B5 A44A5 5 45 99A485 34B5 495 !A45 5 9A5 345 B332B5 B985 45 35 495 !A45 A95 45 B45 5 24BA5 45 99C52975>B5458535954A5A83475 >B534554599A45B84A4852B54954A4A5:5AA45 3523545B332B529545485943594525345 B2A45 45 99C5 295 945 435 4B4BA475 $45 35 4B35 95 4A5 32A5 982A475 >B5 35 A23945 95 B295 BA445 85 445 A245 495 434A5 BA4B475 AB5 499485 35 8A35 42A4334595A485B5945345245B3;45

9345 4B5 32A2A485 2B5 95 2B9A45 :5 B45 5 A4A4A5 345 A45 B5 45 F2B45 2R5 35 485 295 5 85 A4B85 45 2R5 345 AA945 ;A45 45 232945 2B5 A9B45 29A5 945 345 ;345 AA45 25975

>B5 445 29485 35 A82B5 B332B5 4B5 99C5 295 495 84B943344B5 4A45 4B5 84B45 45 92;4A5 24B435 2B5 345 AA945 ;A45 2B5 A245 45 8A5 295 4B5 945 345 A45 B;5 5 5 5 92A43344B5 A29875 7B45 A245 34AB8454C48595845:53A59B458349A5459A45 4A4B5 24BA5 345 43349A5 2A25 4BA45 35 A2B5 95 C95 45 8A5 295 45 345 B2A45 4599C52975$4454ABA4522B598954B595:5 B45 2B4A84A5 945 345 8A5 295 345 49C5 4C395 A534523475

(5)

42 2 2 2 1 $ % % & ' ( ) 9 A ( * + , * A ( ) 9 - ( 9 1 . , 9 $ / * 9 482392B5 95 A2A5 4BA45 35 4B35 45 35

985 4B5 92B2B5 45 8349A5 45 9A45 23485 495 45 A4A4B4A5 295 92A45 45 29A45 4345 29A4563$75$4524545A4A4B2B5299A459B52;4B5 42B5 45 4A92AB45 9B5 2345 45 AA42B532945BA485B599B529354595 2C5 45 8349A5 45 9A45 299AB5 9B5 2A25 A2BB3454BA454B3545975

-A!9F7858A

D29A5 9B5 45 A25 2345 32A5 :5 AA5 45 2BB45 95 >2985 345 8349A5 45 95 45 45

4B352B5539345432B5458349A545 9A45 A2B45848529A53485358349A5B299AB539545 A2B5 4B5 2975 $45 345 B295 2B5 4A5 45 A4A85 29A5 945 23485 35 29A45 63$5 45 4B5 3934A5 3S5 A45 295 35 29A45 T5 %17$&5 %99A45 E&75 445 8349A5 17$5 24B945 B5 35 99A45 E5 B94B5 9B45 545AB2B5A2BB34529A53452345 :5 -FF5 45 M--05 A45 %17$5 2A45 4BA45 F8-5 45 F8/&5 %'A22E4A5 435 785 EFFE&5 45 9B45 2BB45 5 45 AB2B5 29A5 345 2345 :5 EEFF5 A45 %17$5 9A49A45:5F8/&75=5A454C43485358349A517$545 F8/M5 95 2345 :5 EEFF5 A45 B945 99B5 B332B5295A595A59A5/M5U545B45 !A45A5245435A5345234755 5

1

6F2A(A.3F24A!/.A8A01.ABA8236A3B7ABFA'3F4A

(6)

1 $ % % & ' ( ) 9 A ( * + , * A ( ) 9 - ( 9 1 . , 9 $ / * 9 9 9 9 59 43349A454A92AB45952345:5EEFF5A475$45

4B5 49945 45 2345 95 299A45 35 43349A45 935 45 A2B5 32345 29A5 9B45 4B35 45 ,FF5 U75 AB5 A9485 45 2345 4A45 45 AA45 2AA444B5 295 345 B332B5 295 295 4B5 2B4A8B5 9B45 95 45 M8EMU75 445 2345 :5 M--05 A45 299A45

4A92AB459B4553A44B5B9A49A4595 2345A4B7519C58349A5459A452AA42BB5 :59B52B52A25%54A4B545AA45.545/5 B332B5 29&85 345 49C5 A44A5 2345 2B5 3453954A92AB75 5

1

)5475FA(A01.2A57F2ABA9F2A8AD2325EABA-A3B7A

445 8349A5 45 A235 A945 :5 945 B332B5 A5 345 2345 4984B5 !A45 A4A4B45 344B75 >45 !485 35 A2B5 45 B332B5

4B5 92B2B5 45 99A4B45 8349A5 45 9A45 A44B945 299A45 9B5 2935 B4AA2B5 345 45 35 AA2B5 4B94545B332B52BB75

5

1

6F2A-A12345467689A5369A5FA95E86773EA8A75E8AEA3E863EABA57F2ABA9F2AD3F2A7A3B7A +A((,,A828

(7)

62 2 2 2 1 $ % % & ' ( ) 9 A ( * + , * A ( ) 9 - ( 9 1 . , 9 $ / * 9 45 99A45P5 339A45 345 8349A5 45 A235 945 95

23459542B5B849543345%EEFF5A4&5B5 945 35 A2B5 45 B332B5 4B5 92B2B5 45 35 8349A5 45 9A45 A44B9475 =5 445 43345 B3;485 35 8349A5 45 9A45 45 F8F05 4A45 45 A82A5 295 345 8A5 295 845 9B5 B2A45 A43844B5 A4A4B5 45 99C5 2975 $45 4AB4A5 2B85 4B5 29A485 344B5 A2BA5 :5 45 F2B45 B444B5 9B475 1B85 9B5 92;4A5 AB35 4345 AQA45 B5 345 95 95 A44B75 445 B332B5 295 95 B2A5 95 A44B52B5254935A524543852535 BA84B5B59B592;4A532375)3545:5B24A5344B85 B5 345 B2A5 95 A44B85 9B5 45 A2945 45 A25 B332B5 B95 A5 245 295 A5 345 23475$45;4545A2945495!A4535:59B45F2B45 2R5 345 B45 ;4A5 25 9C5 B332B5 295 2B5 A4B85 5 2R5 345 A45 B5 5 5 4B975$4553454524B43545A945945B295 4A2B5 :5 4A45 4B5 39A485 4B5 BB5 9A5 345 95 945 345 A45 5 95 45 A2984A5 2B943344B5 B5 45 ;45 45 F2B485 295 935 45 94345 45 2982A5 ;5 !A45 A4B2BA5 :5 384BA75 7B45 42B45 8349A5 45 9A45 8B5:534A5345B2A454599C5295:544543345 559C45:5F8P75$4458349A54A454B2A4545AA45 C5 45 B4995 B332B5 2975 445 92;4A5 95 95 95 >295A4454B2A458345B59453B332B5295 95 B2A5 95 A44B5 95 45 5 4935 A5 245 4385 45 9B5 45 B332B5 95 A2945 45 A25 A5 245295845358349A5459A45B9A49A475

3A'6F63EA

4458A3454B945:545A25B849C5433452B5 2B95 :5 94A5 45 ;245 9B5 9C5 949A5 ;4A5 95 4BA4B5 4B5 ?495 B5 345 A2495 232947512952A8535A9AA4B45B45 359C5F2B45C4549534A54B4A594545345 ;A45 45 349A5 4B44B5 2B5 9B45 B9394B45 9A5 9B45 295 3949A5 45 95 ;345 AA475 *5 349A5 2AB45 45 2B9A485 43345 29AA4B5 !A45 2BA4524545B49A545A945A975 45 9A94B45 45 2B5 4BA45 345 292B5 95 235 4345 344B5 !A45 9B5 ;45 45 4A49A5 BA4B75 $45 2B5 495 !A45 B4AA5 245 345 A493454532AB45452B99A2B5;A485 45 3959944B545F2B45453A454BA454AB45 345292B5952375

5>B53452C5458349A5459A485354B354535 A2B5 5 5 982A475 $435 9895 :5 23A4A5 9B5 395AB5B2A454599C529585B5345545 B2B45 8A345 B5 3445 45 B5 345 485 445 A2A5 495 84B943344B5 4A5 :5 4A45 4B5 84B45 45 92;4A5 24B435 2B5 345 AA945 ;A45 2B5 A245 45 8A5 295 4B5 945 345 A45 B;5 5 5 5 92A43344B5 A29875 4A# 2B54592;4A5 45A94524B4385:5AA5452BB45 95>2985459B5A44A5A93595B29554B29A5 :5334A539532B5B5 34C322B5454523475445 949A5 ;4A5 4B95 4984B5 !A45 3935 4B5

295 2B5 45 34475 445 A25 2345 32A5 A44B5 2B5 95 32?45 9B45 BA32B5 345 45 949A5 345 22B75 +295 82B5 B5 24B95 9B45 A4A4B2B5 2BB945 45 99A4B45 8A345 4BAB5 B5 345 23475 445 24994B5 95 45 35 AA42B5 32945 B295 A4B4B4B5 :5 35 925 9A5 345 25 84B9435 :5 A94A5 9C5 8A345 ;A485 45 9A5 349A5 B9394B485 B845 295 28485 9A5 35 A2B5 45 A4B45 95 A475 +295 82B5 2B5 A285 29A5 945 B485 :5 9B5 AB332B# B45 A934A5 4B5 ,F5 345 298AB5 34B945 45 2BB475 1B85 45 8349A5 92A45 45 49C5 B45 B52B5294549C5A4245845358349A545,F75 4458A345B5B844B59A535A82B545 A4B45 95 A45 2B5 5 A4245 45 BA45 3A45 5 4B5 A9B85 445 9285 35 8349A5 45 ,F5 9C5 8349A5 345 395 93475 $445 B2A32B5 A3485 B295 82B5 235 345 2945 45 945 2345 4B5 349A5 A9B5 345 25 2BB5 A5 345 24994B5 4'_{5 3935 29A5 945 8A3475 $445} 2BA2B5 845 B9A43344B5 :5 B39A45 2945 35 A2B59524994B54'_{5B535232B5345} 45B45;4A75445A93545445454A45 458934A53954B53454452R5345949A545 A945 A95 2BB4B5 45 2B85 2R5 35 A4B45 95 A45 45 4B9475 45 99A45 M5 A4A4B45 345 AA945 ;A45 45 4B5 84B45 A5 345 2345:5EEFF5A475

445 2345 :5 EEFF5 A45 345 AQA45 3949A5 92;4A5 A43844B5 B475 445 95 95 A44B5 4B5 2B945 9B5 A44A85 A43844B5 4B975 7B45 F2B45 :5 32945 45 D2BA34A5 AQ5 344B5 B444B85 A4B92A(B5 35 9435 A945 45 ;45 45 445 F2B45 :5 9433A5 345 A475 195 B2A5 95 A44B85A259A4592;4A5454B4B5B444B75 AB5A48B485345B2A#4595A44B543452B5 2B4AB5 A5 345 B2B45 AA475 45 8A35 45 2B4C45 ;4A85 232945 45 232# 945 B45 495 B295 B4A5 9:5 35 A94B45 B5 3B4AA2B545A935A4B75+B2B8545 A9354984B5!A452BA52454B29A4B5 B5 345 4B5 2R5 349A5 B4AA2B5 232945 45 2345 45 A43844B5 2A4B45 845 345 AA45 2BB95245 4BAB54B5245B5 3344B5 95 ;345 AA485 45 B5 345 95 935 34B5 AQA45 45 92;4A5 4B5 4B95 45 9C5 AA# 945 A475 +2A45 A45 4C32A2A45 B295 4A45 45 9A45 AQA45 45 4BB45 B9A43345 9A45 A5 345 2BB45 45 2B85 A5 345 A2495 232945953452B2BB4B75D29A59B85B295B45 A4B2B5 5 82A5 935 9B5 ?495 45 2BB45 4C45 45 A2345 B332BB45 295 922AA32B5 3475 7B5 395 AB5 B2A45 45 2BB485 45 9A295 B332B5 2985 B295 9A5 B5 2945 4A5 24BA5 45 A935 395 A2945 45 395 9344B5 BA33475 $435 B295 9A5 344B5 4A5 45 2BA9A45 B25 2345 9A5 9B5 29#B332B5 45 35 45 45 2BB45 945 B295 9A2B5 4A5 :5 834A5 8453452BB45A4B475>B53455A4B85945 2B5 5 49295 2AB45 45 B93945 92A44B5 9A5

(8)

1 $ % % & ' ( ) 9 A ( * + , * A ( ) 9 - ( 9 1 . , 9 $ / * 9 9 9 9 79 ;245 445 5 B44A5 35 233445 45 B29849C5B332B5B5345F2B454B945245 BA2945B5345234529A54B5A4A5352A475 5

1

6F2A3A!D29E85863EAD58657ABA6EB6ABA26FABAD29EABFAD52568AD3F2A7A3B7A+A((,,A82A AA45AA7D8

DAE5 OA929C5 95 32A2A45 45 '23245 AB8A2B# B44B345K5 '4B25 $2485 >2A5 O24E85 *B45 684A5 45 6ABF5 $A4335 45 3A6N5 %AB4B45

B4AA44B345 45 3945 2BA45 35 645 45 9A45 N22B24&5K5 >4B5 1925 45 6ABE5 '295 45 316**15 %14B456AB(4545*9A5*BA4545134B&5K5 DA2?45 294B95 A5 345 2BA5 A9A24B5 S5A9A4B2# AE5T5 V4@#E#$1#EFF,#F,//05 S56E5 44B5 B5 A484B2B5295138423A5AB2225T75

#A!992EA46476325D6FA

194A5 2785 "94A5 D785 1A25 2785 'AA5 "75 2785 '345 175 2785 ,/-85 445 2A45 AB2295 933293A5 A5 345 A4BA5 %9456 945&54B542AAB475$2B94B459A5352BB2B59B485D4294A6C7A264363AEA485,.P%,F&85P/#MP75

'A22E4A5*785G;5*75)785)45C785G3351785@5$7527854D25+785CB5C785624A5>75"785'9B;5>785EFF,85DA4B545A92B5295 9ABA;5225B51BFB59B5433454B2A585FA26C47A2AE46E76AE34E3AFE64385.%,E&85//#,FF-75 'A22E4A5*785G;5*75)785'9B;5>785EFFE85122359A254232; 594993592A54839B5B942B5AE5243W54E756AE65A3FF85,%E&85-F#

-M75

AE4A5 "785 $2BA5 675 "785 1EBB5 @785 EFFF85 AB222 5 B5 44AB5 2A5 A4#44AB5 F22B2W85 E34E3AFE6 F9E6 !F6 "5A3FF;85PF85EFFF85,EP#,E/M75

623!45"7#$78522B435$785>42B52785EFFE85G5B354545B9A945 524545A42BBB454C32A2A453945:5 4529AA4B454485"F3FAE3433AFE85P85MF#0,75

OA929C5D785$A5D75*785>43A45D785'25O785'A23225'785GAA5*785V9A5"7#D785629356785CB5B785*5>785I92B5>751785EFFP85 )B4A2B5 4D44B5 3B45 B45 B5 25 29B45 B5 A49345 AB2295 933293A5 AB2B85 "5A3FF85,E-85,E,#,P,75

(9)

82 2 2 2 1 $ % % & ' ( ) 9 A ( * + , * A ( ) 9 - ( 9 1 . , 9 $ / * 9

OA4B4A5 2785 D94994A5 >785 *5 675 >785 EFFF85 DAB345 B5 A35 32B5 295 45 A4484A#24AB5 A4A5 B3;5 92A5 B25485"46436#4785M085EP#M,75

2OA35@785$9B5*751785+4435275$785AB45A785EFFE85661O*111* 5*354AB5B3;5A2A592A542A3575$294A5 29DA45 A2A5 A2945 ;5 45 92A5 5 45 7B84A;5 295 29485 14A75 183345 5 45 92332DB5 D45 4 5

DDD79749H3B42HA44AH9AH9A735

24F5$75A785,/-85'5AB34529563$5B3;85$4CAE6%926#4778585EP#E/75

D4A45 "785 64AA4A5 *785 EFFF85 A839B5 45 A4845 4A92AB45 295 5 2435 4843245 9B5 325 A4A42B85 2FFA26 #F74AE85,PP85EE0#EM075

D8;51756785>432E5*785O325'785,/M852454B584B4545353A845951B5933293A454F549C5B235%2A295A83545 $34A2B2;5 3A4239&5 B5 345 92;4A5 B22245 3823A45 95 295 $4BA35 %6AB4&85 127CA46 7456 $2A4E2456 746 "A585 E//85-P0#-P-75

CB5O75678562B2B5175D785'29AB5>752785>9AA5D751785G;5*75)7856B235*75A785624A5>75"785EFFE852B528B4594A9325B5OA45 'AB59B54B8A2B4B35854E756AE6#A2F&AFF85,F%,F&85MM,#MMM75