Benahmedahmed20@yahoo.frWorld prices of natural gas and its future
Dr Ben Ahmed Ahmed
University of hamma lakhdhar el oued –Algeria
Received: 16 Mar 2016 Accepted: 03 Dec 2016 Published: 30 Dec 2016
90 1996 2009 . jel : Q43 Q41 . Abstract:
The indexing of natural gas remained tied with the price of oil, the exporting countries of the gas suggests and denounces this dependency, for that the gas market has become independent of the oil market , among the consequences of this dependence in the years 90 , is when the price of oil will fall automatically , the price of gas also changes , despite the fact that the gas production costs of investments it's expensive. The Exporters of the gases have discussed long this dependence in the congresses and seminars such as in the UAE 1996 and in the Middle East Congress of the gas and oil in Abu Dhabi or the participants called for the requirement to base a league producers of gas outside of OPEC ,which brings together the countries such : Russia ,Iran ,Qatar ,UAE ,Algeria ,Malaysia, Indonesia ...etc. to coordinate cooperation concerning the indexation of gas and its industry. As well in the 10 th Forum of the exporting countries of the gas to Oran in 2009, or the recommendations was the need for the revision of the price of gas in the global markets in order to arrive at a fair price with a consensus of decrease of production , and to find mechanisms that ensure a real gas price.
Keywords: natural gas, and natural gas prices, energy . Jel Classification Codes: Q41, Q43.
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1973 1 75 % 2004
25 % 60 % 0.75 1.25 1.30 3.0 – – – Btu 252 Nymex IPE Zeebrugge
2 – 3.64 1990 29 % 122 % 1991 168 % 25 % 2003 2004 1990 1995 1996 1997 2004 28 % 01
Source: BP, Statistical Review of World Energy, 2005.
1996 2004 2004 9 % 2001 1998 1999 2004 2002 02 1996 2004
Source: IEA, Energy Statistics and Taxes, Quarterly Statistics, various Issues. 2002 0.25 0.5 1990 2004 42 % 1990 2004 62 % Henry Hub 2004 257 % 1990
) ﻢﻗر لوﺪﺠﻟا 01 ةﺮﺘﻔﻠﻟ ﻲﻌﻴﺒﻄﻟا زﺎﻐﻟا رﺎﻌﺳﻷ ﺔﻳﻮﻨﺴﻟا تﻻﺪﻌﻤﻟا :( 1990 -2004 ) ( ﺔﻴﻧﺎﻄﻳﺮﺑ ﺔﻳراﺮﺣ ةﺪﺣو نﻮﻴﻠﻣ / رﻻود مﺎﺨﻟا ﻂﻔﻨﻠﻟ ﺮﻌﺴﻟا لﺪﻌﻣ ناﺪﻠﺑ ﻲﻓ درﻮﺘﺴﻤﻟا OECD ﺮﻌﺴﻟا زﺎﻏ) نﺎﺑﺎﻴﻟا (ﻞﻴﺴﻣ CIF ﺮﻌﺴﻟا ﻲﺑروﻷا دﺎﺤﺗﻻا CIF ) (ﺐﻴﺑﺎﻧأ زﺎﻏ يﺮﻨﻫ ﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻲﻓ ﺮﻌﺴﻟا (ﺐﻴﺑﺎﻧأ زﺎﻏ) ﺔﻨﺴﻟا 3.82 3.64 2.82 1.64 1990 3.33 3.99 3.18 1.49 1991 3.19 3.62 2.76 1.77 1992 2.82 3.52 2.53 2.12 1993 2.70 3.18 2.24 1.92 1994 2.96 3.46 2.37 1.69 1995 3.54 3.66 2.43 2.76 1996 3.29 3.91 2.65 2.53 1997 2.16 3.05 2.26 2.08 1998 2.98 3.14 1.80 2.27 1999 4.83 4.72 3.25 4.23 2000 4.08 4.64 4.15 4.07 2001 4.17 4.27 3.46 3.33 2002 4.89 4.77 4.40 5.63 2003 6.27 5.18 4.56 5.85 2004
Source: BP, Statistical Review of World Energy, 2005.
3 2012 0.5 15.6 % 2.7 14.6 16.5 ) ﻢﻗر لوﺪﺠﻟا 02 ﻲﻜﻳﺮﻣﻷا قﻮﺴﻟا ﻲﻓ دﻮﻗﻮﻟا ﺖﻳزو سﺎﺴﻜﺗ بﺮﻏ مﺎﺧو ،ﻲﻌﻴﺒﻄﻟا زﺎﻐﻟا رﺎﻌﺳأ :( 2012 -2013 ﺮﺣ ةﺪﺣو نﻮﻴﻠﻣ / رﻻود) (ﺔﻴﻧﺎﻄﻳﺮﺑ ﺔﻳرا ﺮﻬﺸﻟا ﻞﻳﺮﺑا 2012 ﻮﻳﺎﻣ ﻮﻴﻧﻮﻳ ﻮﻴﻟﻮﻳ ﺲﻄﺴﻏأ ﺮﺒﻤﺘﺒﺳ ﺮﺑﻮﺘﻛأ *ﻲﻌﻴﺒﻄﻟا زﺎﻐﻟا 1.9 2.5 2.4 2.9 2.8 2.8 3.3 **سﺎﺴﻜﺗ غ مﺎﺧ 17.8 16.3 14.2 15.1 16.2 16.3 15.4 ﺾﻔﺨﻨﻣ دﻮﻗو ﺖﻳز ﺖﻳﺮﺒﻜﻟا ) 0.3 % ( 20.1 18.1 16.4 17.2 18.6 18.7 18.0 ﺮﻬﺸﻟا ﺮﺒﻤﻓﻮﻧ ﺮﺒﻤﺴﻳد ﺮﻳﺎﻨﻳ 2013 ﺮﻳاﺮﺒﻓ سرﺎﻣ ﻞﻳﺮﺑأ / *ﻲﻌﻴﺒﻄﻟا زﺎﻐﻟا 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 4.0 4.2 / **سﺎﺴﻜﺗ غ مﺎﺧ 14.9 15.2 16.3 16.4 16.0 15.9 / ﺾﻔﺨﻨﻣ دﻮﻗو ﺖﻳز ﺖﻳﺮﺒﻜﻟا ) 0.3 % ( 17.5 17.5 19.0 21.0 18.3 17.1 /
Source: World Gas Intelligence May 8, 2013.
5.80 2012 ICE NYMEX 2012 2012 7.7 2012 03 2013
Source: World Gas Intelligence ;May 15, 2013.
4 1996 1997 1996 63 % 1995 8 % 1.5 2.5 1 10
1998 1999 4.74 2000 5.78 1982 94 % 1999 1.73 2000 2.82 1986 20 1990 10 2000 9 60 70 % 25 % 1995 2004 16 % 1998 2004 2005
5
6 2000 2006 2010 2030 3.6 5.0 2015 3.8 5.6 2025 2003 2006 2.3 % 2002 2030 1.6 % 1.5 % 90 % 2020 25 % 2030 21 % 2002 ) ﻢﻗر ﻞﻜﺸﻟا 04 ﺔﻨﺴﻟ ﻲﻤﻟﺎﻌﻟا ﻲﻟﺎﻤﺟﻹا ﻦﻣ ﺔﻔﻠﺘﺨﻤﻟا ﺔﻴﻟوﻷا ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟا ردﺎﺼﻣ ﺐﺴﻧ :( 2002 ﺔﻨﺴﻟ ﺔﻌﻗﻮﺘﻤﻟاو 2030 2002 2030 ) % (
Source IEA, World Energy Outlook, 2004.
56 %
2030 1.6 11.4 % 2003 2020 7.5 19.3 % ) ﻢﻗر لوﺪﺠﻟا 03 زﺎﻐﻟا ﻰﻠﻋ ﺐﻠﻄﻟا ﻲﻟﺎﻤﺟإ ﻦﻣ ﻞﻴﺴﻤﻟا زﺎﻐﻟا ﺐﺴﻧ تﺎﻌﻗﻮﺗ :( 2020 ) % ( ﺔﻨﺴﻟا ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻤﺸﻟا ﺎﻜﻳﺮﻣأ ﺎﺑروأ يدﺎﻬﻟا ﻂﻴﺤﻤﻟا / ﺎﻴﺳآ 2003 1.6 7.5 64.2 2010 8.8 10.2 61.3 2020 11.4 19.3 57.1
Source: Petroleum Economist,November,2004.
7 5
) (GTL 3 % 7 10 % OECD
– – 05 2009 10
Source: BP, BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2010.
1 6 % 2006 2010 44.9 % 2006 45.4 % 2010 2008 11.1 % 4.1 % 2009 2.9 % 2010