HAL Id: halshs-00827795
https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00827795
Submitted on 29 May 2013
HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access
archive for the deposit and dissemination of
sci-entific research documents, whether they are
pub-lished or not. The documents may come from
teaching and research institutions in France or
abroad, or from public or private research centers.
L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est
destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents
scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non,
émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de
recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires
publics ou privés.
LES DIX LOIS DE LA GÉOPOLITIQUE DE LA
DÉMOGRAPHIE [The ten laws of geopolitical
demography]
Gérard-François Dumont
To cite this version:
Gérard-François Dumont. LES DIX LOIS DE LA GÉOPOLITIQUE DE LA DÉMOGRAPHIE [The
ten laws of geopolitical demography]. Diplomatie : affaires stratégiques et relations internationales,
Areion Group, 2010, pp.46-49. �halshs-00827795�
E]didX^"YZhhjh/ KjZYjXZcigZk^aaZYZ=dc\ @dc\ZiYZhZhWj^aY^c\h# H]jiiZghidX`$D`hVcV EZg`^ch
ZcigZi^Zc
6kZX<gVgY";gVcd^h 9jbdci!Xdcdb^hiZ ZiYbd\gVe]Z[gVcV^h! egd[ZhhZjg|ajc^kZgh^i EVg^h">K#>aZhicdiVbbZci aÉVjiZjgYZ:ce]hWf^_[ feb_j_gk[0b[ibe_iZ[bW ]efeb_j_gk[Z[ifefkbWj_edi EVg^h!:aa^ehZh!'%%,Zi egh^YZciYZaVgZkjZ FefkbWj_ed7l[d_h'#BÊ[nY[fj_ed ]efeb_j_gk[ W fbkjj hi_Z ZWdi bW \[hc[jkh[ Wk cedZ[Z[Y[fWoi"Z['/*/`kigkÊWkZfbe_[c[djZ[iWfeb_j_gk[ Z[hekl[hjkh[Z[fk_i'/./$?bjW_jZ`}WYgk_igk[b[`ekhe[bb[ iÊeklh_hW_jWkcedZ["bW9^_d[h[fhi[dj[hW_jkdfe_Zii_]d_ÓYW# j_\0b[ifWoic[cXh[iZk9edi[_bZ[IYkh_jZ[iDWj_ediKd_[i bÊWlW_[djX_[dh[Yeddk[dWYY[fjWdjiedWZ^i_ed[d'/-'"Wkfh_n Z[bÊ[nYbki_edZ[JWmWd($
Fekh gk_ l[kj Yecfh[dZh[ bW ]efeb_j_gk[ cedZ_Wb[" bW gk[i# j_edZce]hWf^_gk[[ij_dYedjekhdWXb["Yecc[`[f[di[bÊWle_h fhekl[d[nfb_gkWdjY[gk[`ÊW_Wff[bb[i¼Z_nbe_iZ[bW]efe# b_j_gk[Z[ifefkbWj_edi½)$7ÓdZ[b[iZcedjh[h"b[Y^WcfZ[i iY_[dY[iieY_Wb[i[j^kcW_d[id[f[kj[dl_iW][hZ[hWb_i[hZ[i [nfh_c[djWj_edi$@ÊW_ZedYfhWj_gkbÊ[nfh_c[djWj_ed_dlegk[ [dYedi_ZhWdjbÊ^_ije_h[Z[if[kfb[i"Z[ixjWji[jZ[iY_l_b_iWj_edi$ BWc_i[[dl_Z[dY[^_ijeh_gk[Z[bWhfj_j_edZÊ[dY^Wd[c[dji Z[YWki[i[jZÊ[\\[jie\\h[bWfeii_X_b_jZ[Z]W][hZ[ih]kbWh_ji [jc c[Z[ibe_iZedjbÊWffb_YWj_ed[ij_dYedj[ijWXb[$Iodj^j_# iediY[iZ_nbe_i[db[i_bbkijhWdjZ[gk[bgk[i[n[cfb[ihikci$ 'B7BE?:KDEC8H; B[decXh[ZÊ^WX_jWdji"gkÊ_bie_jb[lek\W_Xb["h[l jkd[_cfeh# jWdY[ZWdibWijhWj]_[]efeb_j_gk[ZÊkdxjWj$ÀjhWl[hibÊ>_ije_h[" b[decXh[_dÔk[ikhbW]efeb_j_gk[_dj[hd[fk_igk[bWZceYhWj_[ h[fhi[djWj_l[j_[djYecfj[Zkfe_Zib[YjehWbZ[iZ_\\h[dj[ife# fkbWj_edigk_Yecfei[djkdfWoi$?b[dlWZ[c c[}bÊY^[bedZ[i eh]Wd_iWj_edih]_edWb[i0bÊKd_ed[khef[dd[Wjjh_Xk[WknxjWji c[cXh[ikddecXh[Z[ZfkjiWkFWhb[c[dj[khef[d[d\edY# j_edZkfe_ZiZce]hWf^_gk[Z[ixjWji$B[jhW_jZ[B_iXedd[" fbkifhY_i"WZY_Zgk[b[decXh[Z[le_nWk9edi[_b[khef[d i[hW_jfhefehj_edd[bWkfe_ZiZce]hWf^_gk[Z[iZ_\\h[djifWoi$
AZhVcVanhZh\deda^i^fjZhdjWa^ZciigdehdjkZciaZeVgVbigZ
Ybd\gVe]^fjZ#EVgZmZbeaZ!aÉVXijVa^ibdcigZXdbbZciaZh
bY^VhdcigZYXdjkZgigXZbbZciaÉ^bedgiVcXZ\deda^i^fjZYZ
aV8]^cZ!jcwiVifj^!edjgiVci!Vidj_djghVWg^iaZX^cfj^bZYZaV
edejaVi^dcbdcY^VaZ#
AZhY^mad^hYZaV\deda^i^fjZ
YZaVYbd\gVe]^Z
)+
:_fbecWj_[** CW_#@k_d(&'&B[ixjWjif[kf[kfbi"Yecc[7dZehh[ekCedWYe"edjWZefj WkÓbZ[ii_Yb[ikd[ijhWj]_[]efeb_j_gk[WZWfj[}b[kh\W_Xb[ f[kfb[c[djfekhb_c_j[hb[khh[bWj_l[\hW]_b_j$ (B7BE?:;I=HEKF;I>KC7?DI BÊ^_ije_h[[di[_]d[gk[bWfefkbWj_edZÊkdxjWjd[f[kj jh[^e# ce]d[gkÊ[dYWiÅdediek^W_jWXb[ÅZÊkd[\heY[fkhWj_ed [j^d_gk[$ 9ecfj[ j[dk Z[ bÊ^jhe]d_j Z[ iW fefkbWj_ed" Y^Wgk[xjWj[ijWc[d}[\\[Yjk[hZ[iY^e_nZ[]efeb_j_gk[ _dj[hd[ WbbWdj Zk iekY_ ZÊ_dYbkh[ j[b ek j[b ]hekf[ ^kcW_d* ZWdibWieY_j}Y[bk_Z[bÊ[nYbkh[]deY_Z[i$9[Z[hd_[hY^e_n Yecfehj[]Wb[c[djZ[iYedigk[dY[i]efeb_j_gk[ifk_igk[ b[ifekle_higk_edjZY_ZZ[hWb_i[hZ[i]deY_Z[id[iedj`W# cW_iÅ[j\ehj^[kh[ki[c[djÅfWhl[dkijejWb[c[dj}b[khiÓdi$ BWI^eW^[jb[i]deY_Z[iWhcd_[d"YWcXeZ]_[d[jhmWdZW_i Yedj_dk[dj}[n[hY[hkdY[hjW_ddecXh[ZÊ[\\[ji]efeb_j_gk[i$ B[ixjWji[d]W][djZ[iijhWj]_[i]efeb_j_gk[i\ehjZ_\\h[dj[i$ 9[hjW_di"Yecc[bW<hWdY["Yedi_Zh[djgk[bWh[YeddW_iiWdY[ Z[ib_X[hji_dZ_l_Zk[bb[id[Ze_jfWiYedZk_h[}Y[bb[Zk]hekf[ ^kcW_d"Y[Z[hd_[hjWdjb_Xh[}jhWl[hib[ib_X[hjiWYYehZ[i} Y^WYkd$;dh[lWdY^["ZÊWkjh[ifWoiYedi_Zh[djgk[bÊ_dYbki_ed Z[]hekf[i^kcW_dic_deh_jW_h[iikffei[b[khh[YeddW_iiWdY[ _dij_jkj_edd[bb["fWh[n[cfb[fWhb[Zhe_jZÊkj_b_i[hkd[bWd]k[ c_deh_jW_h[ekbÊb[Yj_edZ[Zfkjih[fhi[djWdjkd[c_deh_j dWj_edWb[$B[ifei_j_edii[Yecfb[n_Ó[dj[dYWiZ[i_jkWj_edi Z[ZkWb_j"}iWle_hbehigk[Z[ij[hh_je_h[iiedjf[kfbiZ[Z[kn ]hekf[i^kcW_di"b_d]k_ij_gk[iekh[b_]_[kn"Wknfe_ZiZce]hW# f^_gk[ih[bWj_l[c[dji_c_bW_h[i$9[jj[ZkWb_jf[kjWXekj_h}Z[i YedÔ_ji]efeb_j_gk[i_dj[hd[i"}bWc_i[[dfbWY[ZÊkd[eh]Wd_# iWj_edf[hc[jjWdjWknxjWjiZ[cW_dj[d_hkd[Y[hjW_d[YedYehZ[ ieY_Wb[ek}kd[iY_ii_edjWj_gk[$ )*B;IBE?I:;IJ?CKB7J?EDEK:;B7D=K;KH
I[bed gkÊkd[ fefkbWj_ed YeddWj kd[ ZodWc_gk[ ek" Wk YedjhW_h[" kd ZYb_d Zce]hWf^_gk[" ied fe_Zi ]efeb_j_gk[ iÊ[djhekl[ceZ_Ó$B[GkX[YWfhi[hliWbWd]k[ifY_Ógk[" b[ \hWdW_i" ]h~Y[ Wk ZYb_d Zce]hWf^_gk[ h[bWj_\ Z[i Wd]be# f^ed[iYecfWhWj_l[c[dj}Y[bk_Z[i\hWdYef^ed[igk_WlW_[dj cW_dj[dkkd[\YedZ_jb[l[$BWij_ckbWj_edZce]hWf^_gk[ f[kjYh[hZ[iceo[diZ[lWbeh_iWj_ed]efeb_j_gk["}bÊ[n[c# fb[Z[ixjWji#Kd_iekZk8hi_bZWdibWfh_eZ[Yedj[cfehW_d[$ :[bWc c[\Wed"cW_iWYedjhWh_e"iÊ[n[hY[bWbe_Z[bWd]k[kh$ :[ifWoil_[_bb_iiWdjiek[dZYhe_iiWdY[Zce]hWf^_gk[le_[dj b[khfe_Zi]efeb_j_gk[Z_c_dk[hek jh[Yedi_ZhYecc[[d h[Ykb$BW<hWdY[Yedij_jk[kdjhiXed[n[cfb[Zkf^decd[$ :WdibWfh[c_h[fWhj_[ZkNN[i_Yb["bWfefkbWj_edZ[bW<hWdY[ WijW]dcWb]hbÊWlWdY[Z[bÊ[ifhWdY[Z[l_["f[hc[jjWdj} >_jb[hZÊW\Óhc[hZWdiC[_dAWcf\gkÊ_bdÊWkhW_jWkYkd[Z_\ÓYkbj }iÊ[d[cfWh[hYecfj[j[dkZ[iWZce]hWf^_[$BW<hWdY[e\\h[ ]Wb[c[djkd[n[cfb[Z[ij_ckbWj_ed"YWhiWdib[h[dekl[WkZ# ce]hWf^_gk[ZÊWfhi#]k[hh["[bb[fhi[dj[hW_jWYjk[bb[c[djkd fe_ZiZce]hWf^_gk[YecfWhWXb[}Y[knZ[bWFebe]d[ekZ[ bÊ;ifW]d["ZedYd[jj[c[dj[dh[jhW_jfWhhWffehj}bÊ7bb[cW]d[" bW=hWdZ[#8h[jW]d[[jbÊ?jWb_[$IWdiY[jj[ZodWc_gk[Z[fefkbW# j_edZ[iWdd[i'/*,}'/-*"bW<hWdY[i[hW_jkdfWoiZce]hW# f^_gk[c[dji[YedZWki[_dZ[bÊKd_ed[khef[dd[$ +B7BE?=xDxH7J?EDD;BB; BWhfWhj_j_edZ[i]dhWj_ediWki[_dZÊkd[fefkbWj_edWZ[i [\\[ji ]efeb_j_gk[i$ :Wdi dei ZceYhWj_[i" b[i fefkbWj_edi
~][i[n[hY[djZWlWdjW][b[khZhe_jZ[lej["Y[gk_[djhWd[Z[i Z[cWdZ[iieY_Wb[iifY_Ógk[i$7_di_"b[Y^e_nZ[bÊKd_ed[khe# f[dd[Z[Zedd[hbWfh[c_h[fh_eh_j}bWbkjj[Yedjh[bÊ_dÔWj_ed Yedij_jk[bWYedigk[dY[Z_h[Yj[Zkl_[_bb_ii[c[djZ[bWieY_j$ B[ih[dj_[hiedjZWlWdjW][}f[hZh[ZWdikdYedj[nj[ZÊ_dÔWj_ed gk[b[ifefkbWj_edi`[kd[i$BWhfWhj_j_edfWh~][[jiedle# bkj_ed[nfb_gk[dj]Wb[c[djb[\W_Xb[XkZ][jYediWYhfWhbÊ;k# hef[WknW\\W_h[ic_b_jW_h[iÅbÊ;khef[dÊWiikhWdjZÊW_bb[khifWi ied_dZf[dZWdY[[dbWcWj_h["c c[fekh_dj[hl[d_hZWdiied [dl_hedd[c[djfheY^[Yecc[bÊjW_jb[Aeiele$ ,B7BE?:K=;DH; >_ijeh_gk[c[dj"bWcedj[b[YjehWb[Z[i\[cc[i[jb[khfekle_h WYYhkikhb[fbWd]efeb_j_gk[iedjZ_h[Yj[c[djb_i}bÊWk]c[djW# j_edZ[b[khfWhjZWdibWfefkbWj_ed]h~Y[Wkh[YkbZ[bWcehjWb_j cWj[hd[bb[$ÀbÊeffei"behigk[b[fe_ZiZce]hWf^_gk[h[bWj_\ Z[i^ecc[iZ[l_[djik\ÓiWcc[dj_cfehjWdj"Z[iieY_jieh]W# d_i[djZ[iijhWj]_[i]efeb_j_gk[iifY_Ógk[i+$BW9^_d["gk_ [dh[]_ijh[kd_cfehjWdjZÓY_j[d\[cc[i"Wkjeh_i[b[i^ecc[i }WY^[j[hZ[ifeki[i}bÊjhWd][hWkL_[jdWcdejWcc[dj[j Wk]c[dj[iedXkZ][jc_b_jW_h[WÓdZÊ[dhb[hZWlWdjW][ZÊ^ec# c[iZWdib[ihWd]iZ[bÊWhc[Y^_de_i[$;dÓd"Fa_dZl[beff[ [d7\h_gk[kd[feb_j_gk[Z[ij_d[}hfedZh[}bW\e_i}Z[iÓdW# b_jiYedec_gk[i[j}Z[iX[ie_diieY_WknÅZ[ifWoiW\h_YW_di" Yecc[bÊxj^_ef_["eh]Wd_i[djZ[icW_iediYbei[iifY_Ógk[c[dj ZZ_[i}bWYb_[djb[Y^_de_i[$9[igk[bgk[i[n[cfb[ic[jj[dj [dl_Z[dY[kdf^decd[cW`[khlek}iÊWcfb_Ó[h"b[ZÓY_j Z[Óbb[ijWdjfbkjj[dle_[ZÊW]]hWlWj_ed[d9^_d[$ -B7BE?:K:?<<xH;DJ?;B B[iZ_\\h[dj_[bic_]hWje_h[iYedjh_Xk[dj}[nfb_gk[hbÊlebkj_ed ]efeb_j_gk[Z[Y^Wgk[fWoi$BÊ^_ije_h[c_]hWje_h[ZÊ>Wj_ced# jh[gk[b[i;ifW]debi,i[iedj_dijWbbiZWdibWfWhj_[eh_[djWb[ Z[bÊb[ZÊ>_ifWd_ebWWbehigk[b[i<hWdW_ii[iedj_dijWbbiZWdibW fWhj_[eYY_Z[djWb[-$BWfWhj_j_edZ[bÊb[[dZ[knxjWji">Wj_[jbW HfkXb_gk[Zec_d_YW_d["Wik_l_bW]e]hWf^_[c_]hWje_h[$?b[dW jZ[c c[WkJ_ceh"ebWfWhj_j_edhikbj[Z_h[Yj[c[djZÊkd[ _dijWbbWj_edZ[iD[hbWdZW_i}bÊEk[ij[jZ[iFehjk]W_i}bÊ;ij$ .B7BE?:Ê7JJ?H7D9; Jekj[Wjj_hWdY[c_]hWje_h[[n[hY[Z[i[\\[ji]efeb_j_gk[i$;d 7ch_gk[ZkDehZ"Y[f^decd[ZXekY^WikhbW\edZWj_edZ[i xjWji#Kd_i$BÊ_cc_]hWj_edZÊWjj_hWdY[[ijZ[dWjkh[}Yedieb_Z[h E]didX^"YZhhdjh/ AdghYZaV[iZYZBV`Vg HVc`gVci^!aZ&)_Vck^ZgYZ X]VfjZVccZ!jcZ\gVcYZ eVgi^ZYjeZjeaZ^cY^ZchZ gVhhZbWaZhjgaZhWdgYhYj <Vc\ZedjgZ[[ZXijZgaZg^iZYZ aVe_}#H]jiiZghidX`$?ZgZbn G^X]VgYh
),
:_fbecWj_[** 7\\W_h[iijhWj]_gk[i[jh[bWj_edi_dj[hdWj_edWb[i]efeb_j_gk[c[djb[ixjWji[n_ijWdji"fekhf[kgkÊkd[feb_j_gk[ _dj[bb_][dj[oie_jYedZk_j[$9Ê[ijW_di_gk[b[ixjWji#Kd_iiedj Z[l[dkikd[]hWdZ[fk_iiWdY["fWiiWdjZ[+c_bb_ediZÊ^WX_jWdji [d'.&&.})'&c_bb_ediWk`ekhZÊ^k_$BÊ_cc_]hWj_edZÊWjj_hWdY[ fheZk_jZ[i[\\[ji]efeb_j_gk[iZWdib[fWoiZÊ_dijWbbWj_ed"ZWdi Y[bk_Z[ZfWhj[jikhb[ihWffehji[djh[b[iZ[kn$ /B7BE?:KH;FEKII;C;DJ Behigk[Z[ifefkbWj_edii[jhekl[djh[fekii[iZÊkdj[hh_je_h[" Z[\WedYedjhW_dj[ek_dZ_h[Yj["iÊ[dYb[dY^[djkdY[hjW_ddec# Xh[ ZÊ[\\[ji ]efeb_j_gk[i$ 7_di_ bW gk[ij_ed ]efeb_j_gk[ [d Dekl[bb[#9WbZed_[ [ij dejWcc[dj bÊ^h_jW][ Z[ bW YedZWc# dWj_ed}bÊbe_]d[c[djZ[iYecckdWhZi[d'.-'$B[h[fekii[# c[dj Z[i \ehWji Wd]bW_i W WXekj_ } bW YhWj_ed Z[ bÊ7kijhWb_[$ B[i h[fekii[c[dji Z[ fefkbWj_edi [djhWd[dj ]Wb[c[dj Z[i Y^Wd][c[djiZ[i[dj_c[dji"Z[Ykbjkh[i"Z[ceZ[iZ[l_[Åb[ jekj[d][dZhWdjZ[i[\\[jifeb_j_gk[iikhb[ifWoi$F[diedifWh [n[cfb[WkjhW_jZ[BWkiWdd[Z['/()"gk_lWb_ZWb[h[fekii[# c[djl[hibW=hY[Z[ifefkbWj_edi]h[Ygk[il_lWdj[d7dWjeb_[" [jl[hibÊ7dWjeb_[Z[ifefkbWj_edijkhgk[i$IWbe]_gk[Z[fkh_Ó# YWj_ed[j^d_gk[Yedij_jk[kdbc[dj\edZWc[djWbfekhYec# fh[dZh[bWifY_ÓY_jZkdWj_edWb_ic[jkhY$ '&B7BE?:;I:?7IFEH7I 9edjhW_h[c[djWknd[k\be_ifhYZ[dj[i"_biÊW]_jZÊkd[be_h# Y[dj[/$BWckbj_fb_YWj_edZki[dj_c[djZ_Wifeh_gk[[ijkdf^# decd[Yedj[cfehW_d"ZWknfhe]hihWb_ii[dcWj_h[Z[ jhWdifehj[jZ[jbYecckd_YWj_edidejWcc[dj$7kN?N[i_Yb[" b[i7d]bW_i"7bb[cWdZiekIk_ii[igk_gk_jjW_[djbÊ;khef[fekh iÊjWXb_h [d 7ch_gk[ Zk DehZ" jW_[dj YedjhW_dji Z[ jekhd[hb[Zei}b[khih]_edi ZÊeh_]_d[$ ?bi d[ feklW_[dj Zl[beff[h Z[ i[dj_c[dj Z_Wifeh_gk[ ZWdi bW c[ikh[ e_bb[khjW_jfhWj_gk[c[dj _cfeii_Xb[Z[Yedi[hl[hZ[i b_[di Å c c[i coj^ebe]_# gk[i Å Wl[Y b[kh j[hh_je_h[ ZÊeh_]_d[$?biWXWdZeddW_[dj ZedY b[khi h\h[dY[i _Z[d# j_jW_h[i]e]hWf^_gk[i[khe# f[dd[i_d_j_Wb[i$ÀbÊ_dl[hi[" bWYecckdWkj`k_l[Wbed]# j[cfijbWi[kb[}WZefj[h kd Yecfehj[c[dj Z_Wife# h_gk[" c c[ [d bÊWXi[dY[ Z[ YedjWYj Wl[Y iW j[hh[ ZÊeh_]_d[f[dZWdjZ[knc_b# bdW_h[i" YWh i[i h\h[dY[i j[hh_jeh_Wb[i jW_[dj bWh][# c[dj fhi[dj[i ZWdi bÊ7d# Y_[dJ[ijWc[dj[jb[ij[nj[i Z[bWh[b_]_ed`k_l[$ :iehcW_i" [d gk_jjWdj kd fWoi" kd[ fefkbWj_ed f[kj Yedi[hl[h bW YeddW_iiWdY[ Z[ ied eh_]_d[ ]e]hWf^_# gk["Z[ib_[diWl[YiWj[hh[ ZÊeh_]_d[" [j WZefj[h kd
Yecfehj[c[djZ_Wifeh_gk["Y[ij#}#Z_h[dekhh_hZ[ii[dj_c[dji Z[¼ZekXb[j[hh_jeh_Wb_j½'&$Eh"Y[jj[ZekXb[WffWhj[dWdY[W Z[i[\\[ji]efeb_j_gk[i$7_di_"bWZ_WifehWWhcd_[dd[[d<hWdY[ i[i[dj\hWdW_i[jekj[dÄklhWdjfekhgk[b[ih[bWj_ediZ[bW <hWdY[Wl[YbÊ7hcd_[ie_[djb[ic[_bb[kh[ifeii_Xb[i"[jfekh gk[bW<hWdY[h[YeddW_ii[b[]deY_Z[Whcd_[d$B[c c[f^# decd[i[h[jhekl[Wl[YZÊWkjh[iZ_WifehWi"b[hikbjWjjWdjZ[ dWjkh[}[djhWd[hZ[ifheXbc[iZ[]efeb_j_gk[_dj[hd[$9Ê[ij b[YWi[d<hWdY[[djh[b[iZ_WifehWijkhgk[[jWhcd_[dd[gk_ iÊeffei[djikhb[j[hh_je_h[Z[bWHfkXb_gk[$B[icedkc[dji h_]i[dcce_h[Zk]deY_Z[Whcd_[dZe_l[dj\W_h[bÊeX`[j" fWh[n[cfb[}Boed"ZÊkd[fhej[Yj_edf[hcWd[dj[$ <ehY[[ijZ[YedijWj[hgk[bWZÓd_j_edZ[bW]efeb_j_gk[[bb[# c c[Wlebk$:[bÊjkZ[Z[hWffehjiZ[\ehY[i[djh[Z[iWYj[khi jWj_gk[iWkZXkjZkNN[i_Yb["bW]efeb_j_gk[Ze_jfh[dZh[[d Yecfj[Z[iWYj[khi]efeb_j_gk[idedjWj_gk[i"WkdecXh[Z[i# gk[bi Ó]kh[dj b[i Z_WifehWi$ 9[i Z_WifehWi `ek[dj kd hb[ jekj }\W_j[ii[dj_[b}bW\e_iZWdib[khifWoiZ[hi_Z[dY[[jZWdib[i ¼fWoiiekY^[i½Åb[ij[hh_je_h[iei[beYWb_i[bÊeh_]_d[]e]hWf^_# gk[$9[hb[Yhe_iiWdjZ[iZ_WifehWi[ijc_i[dl_Z[dY[ZWdikd Y[hjW_ddecXh[ZÊ[n[cfb[i"ZedjY[bk_"jhiYbW_hWdj"Z[bWZ_Wi# fehW_dZ_[dd[WknxjWji#Kd_i$F[dZWdjbW]k[hh[\he_Z["b[ixjWji# Kd_i\kh[djb[iWbb_ijhWZ_j_edd[biZkFWa_ijWdjWdZ_igk[bÊKHII iekj[dW_jbÊ?dZ[$BÊY^_gk_[hWYedi_ZhWXb[c[djlebkBÊkd[Z[i hW_iedifhel_[djdejWcc[djZ[bÊWYj_edZ[bWZ_WifehW_dZ_[dd[ Wkn;jWji#Kd_i''"bWgk[bb[WX[WkYekfÄklhfekh\Wleh_i[hkd hWffheY^[c[dj[djh[D[m:[b^_[jMWi^_d]jed"Y[gk_WWXekj_} kdY[hjW_ddecXh[Z[jhW_jii_]di[djh[b[iZ[knfWoi$ :[ c c[" bÊ_dZf[dZWdY[ Z[i fWoi XWbj[i Ze_j X[WkYekf Wk jhWlW_b]efeb_j_gk[[djh[fh_ifWhb[iZ_WifehWiXWbj[iWknxjWji# Kd_i"gk_c_b_jh[dj[df[hcWd[dY[fekh\WY_b_j[hY[fheY[iiki$ BÊWdY_[dd[ fhi_Z[dj[ Z[ B[jjed_[" LW_hW L_a[#<h[_X[h]W" h[# jekhd[[dB[jjed_[kd[\e_ibÊ_dZf[dZWdY[h[jhekl["\W_iW_j `kij[c[djfWhj_[Z[Y[jj[Z_WifehW$B[iZ_WifehWiYedij_jk[dj ZiehcW_i kd jhe_i_c[ WYj[kh Z[i hWffehji ]efeb_j_gk[i$ B[ixjWjigk_WYYk[_bb[djZ[iZ_WifehWiikhb[khiebd[f[kl[dj YedZk_h[ZÊWYj_ed]efeb_j_gk[iWdifh[dZh[[dYecfj[Y[jj[ hWb_j$B[HeoWkc[#Kd_[ijeXb_]ZÊ_dj]h[hbWhWb_jZ[bWfh# i[dY[ZÊkd[_cfehjWdj[Z_WifehWfWa_ijWdW_i[[j_dZ_[dd[ZWdi i[ih[bWj_ediWl[Yb[FWa_ijWd[jbÊ?dZ[$ B[iZ_h_][Wdjiedj#_biYediY_[dY[Zkfe_ZiZ[bWZce]hWf^_[ [jbÊ_dYbk[dj#_biZWdikd[ZcWhY^[ijhWj]_gk[5 :WdibWfbkfWhjZ[ixjWji"bWfh_i[Z[YediY_[dY[[ij_dik\ÓiWdj[" fWh[n[cfb[fekhb[ibe_iZkdecXh[[jZ[iZ_WifehWi$ÀbÊ_di# jWhZ[bW9^_d["b[8hi_b[ijWk`ekhZÊ^k_¼h[ZYekl[hj½$F[kfb i[kb[c[djZ[+c_bb_ediZÊ^WX_jWdjiWkZXkjZkN?N[i_Yb["_b[d Yecfj[Wk`ekhZ^k_fbkiZ['/&c_bb_edi$7behigk[bWZeYjh_d[ Cedhe['(i[cXbW_j]k_Z[hbW]efeb_j_gk[Z[bÊ7ch_gk[ZWdi ied[di[cXb[WknN?N[[jNN[i_Yb[i"kd[j[bb[feijkh[d[j_[dj fbki$@kigk[ZWdib[iWdd[i'/+&"bÊ7ch_gk[ZkDehZjW_jfbki f[kfb[ gk[ bÊ7ch_gk[ bWj_d[" [j b[ 8hi_b h[ijW_j kd[ f[j_j[ fk_iiWdY[fWhhWffehjWknxjWji#Kd_i$7k`ekhZÊ^k_"bWZedd[W X_[dY^Wd]0b[8hi_b[ijb[+[fWoiZkcedZ[$9edigk[dY[Z[i Z_\\h[dj_[biZce]hWf^_gk[i"bWZeYjh_d[Cedhe[[ijcehj["Z[ c c[gk[b[=.$;jbWb]_j_c_jZk9edi[_bZ[IYkh_jZ[iDW# j_ediKd_[iiekiiW\ehc[WYjk[bb[[ij\ehjXhWdb["Yecc[ed b[YedijWj[Wl[YbWfWhj_Y_fWj_edZk8hi_bWknZ_iYkii_ediikhbW gk[ij_ed_hWd_[dd[$;d'/*+"b[iY_dgc[cXh[if[hcWd[djiZk 9edi[_bZ[IYkh_jh[fhi[djW_[djbWcW`eh_jZ[bWfefkbWj_ed E]didX^"YZhhdjh/ HXcZfjdi^Y^ZccZhjgaV X^cfj^bZVkZcjZYZCZlNdg`# H]jiiZghidX`$8HE
)-
:_fbecWj_[** CW_#@k_d(&'&cedZ_Wb[}[kni[kbiek}jhWl[hib[khiYebed_[i$9ecfj[j[dk Z[i lebkj_edi Zce]hWf^_gk[i Z_\\h[dj_[bb[i" Y[i Y_dg xjWji c[cXh[i f[hcWd[dji d[ iedj fbki h[fhi[djWj_\i" ZÊe Z[i Yedj[ijWj_ediekb[fWiiW][Zk=.Wk=(&$ <WY[Wknheh]Wd_iWj_edigk_i[fheÓb[dj"bWgk[ij_ed Zce]hWf^_gk[h[ij[#j#[bb[kdik`[jjWXek5 9[igk[ij_edih[ij[dj"^bWi"iekl[djjWXek[i$Dekil_ledi[dYeh[ ikhkd^h_jW]["bWfbkfWhjZ[deiYedY_jeo[didÊWoWdjfWijekj} \W_jYecfh_igk[bWifWhWj_edZkcedZ[[dZ[knXbeYijW_jhle# bk[$:khWdjgkWhWdj[Wdi"edi[Yedj[djW_jZ[Z_ij_d]k[hb[ixjWji Zj[dj[khiZ[bÊWhc[dkYbW_h[[jb[h[ij[ZkcedZ[$BWfeii[i# i_edZk\[kWjec_gk[jW_jb[fbkiiekl[djb[i[kbfWhWcjh[]e# feb_j_gk[Yedi_ZhYecc[Z_]d[ZÊWdWboi[}bÊ[nYbki_edZÊWkjh[i lWh_WXb[i]efeb_j_gk[i$EhbÊ_cfbei_edZ[bÊKd_ediel_j_gk[iÊ[n# fb_gk[fWhb[ifWhWcjh[i]eZce]hWf^_gk[i"ie_jfhY_ic[dj" Yecc[`[bÊW_cedjhZWdicedb_lh["fWhbÊ[n[hY_Y[YkckbZ[ jekj[ib[ibe_iZ[bW]efeb_j_gk[Z[ifefkbWj_edi"}bÊ[nYbki_ed" X_[dl_Z[cc[dj"Z[bWbe_Z[ij_ckbWj_ed$:WdikdfWoiYecc[ bW <hWdY[" bÊWdWboi[ Zce]hWf^_gk[ h[ij[ gk[bgk[ f[k jWXek[ Wbehigk[b[fhW]cWj_ic[Wd]be#iWned[ijfh j}Wffhe\edZ_hZW# lWdjW][Y[igk[ij_edi$;d]efeb_j_gk["kd\eiih[ij[}YecXb[h" YWhjhefZÊWYj[khihW_iedd[djikhZ[ilkb]Wj[igk_d[Yehh[ifed# Z[djfWi}bWhWb_jWYjk[bb[[jec[jj[djb[i[di[_]d[c[djiZ[ bWZce]hWf^_[feb_j_gk[$7_di_bW]efeb_j_gk[Z[bÊ7\]^Wd_ijWd [jied\kjkhfeii_Xb[d[iedjYecfh^[di_Xb[igkÊ[dfh[dWdj[d Yecfj[bWbe_Z[i]hekf[i^kcW_di$?b[ijZedY_dZ_if[diWXb[fekh bWYeddW_iiWdY[]efeb_j_gk[Z[i[h\h[h}Y[gk[`ÊW_Wff[bb[i ¼Z_nYeccWdZ[c[djiZ[bW]efeb_j_gk[Z[ifefkbWj_edi½$ Àj_jh[ZÊ[n[cfb["gk[bxjWjW_dj]hbWZodWc_gk[Z[Y[i Z_WifehWiikhb[fbWdfeb_j_gk[5 BÊ?dZ[Yedij_jk[kd[n[cfb[YbW_hWdj"YWhi[i]ekl[hdWdjiedj efhkdl_hW][}'.&Z[]hi$Le_Y_gk[bgk[iZ_pW_d[iZÊWdd[i"bW feb_j_gk[_dZ_[dd[Yedi_ZhW_jgk[jekjh[iiehj_iiWdj_dZ_[dgk_j# jWdjb[fWoifekhiÊjWXb_hW_bb[khidÊ[n_ijW_jfbki$Fk_i"ZWdib[i Wdd[i'//&"bÊ?dZ[iÊWf[he_jgk[b[hi[hle_hZÊ?dZ_[di_dijWbbi Z[fWhb[cedZ[bk_e\\h[kdekj_bZ[lWbeh_iWj_ed]efeb_j_gk[$BW fh_i[Z[YediY_[dY[[ijj[bb[gk[bWh[l[dZ_YWj_ed[ij\ehj[ZÊWY# YehZ[hbWdWj_edWb_j_dZ_[dd[}jekib[iZ[iY[dZWdjiZÊ?dZ_[di l_lWdjZWdijekib[ifWoiZkcedZ[$BÊ?dZ[W]Wb[c[djZY_Z ZÊ[dZh[ii[hkd_dl[djW_h[fhY_i[jeh]Wd_i[Y^Wgk[Wdd[kd[ ]hWdZ[hkd_edZ[bWZ_WifehWfekhh[c[jjh[kdfh_n}bÊkdZ[i ?dZ_[diZ[bWZ_WifehWYedi_ZhYecc[WoWdj\Wleh_ib[ih[bW# j_edi]efeb_j_gk[iZ[bÊ?dZ[$B[fh_n\kjhY[cc[djZY[hdWk fhi_Z[djZ[CWkh_Y["ZÊeh_]_d[_dZ_[dd["gk_Yedj_dk[}`ek[h kdhb[_cfehjWdjZWdib[`[k]efeb_j_gk[\WlehWXb[}bÊ?dZ[$B[ HmWdZWW]Wb[c[djX_[d_dj]hbÊ_cfehjWdY[Z[iWZ_WifehW$ ;djh[j_[dhWb_ifWhIef^_[9bW_h[j CdiZh 'lll#edejaVi^dc"YZbd\gVe]^Z#dg\ (AV8]^cZ!VadghVkZX+%%b^aa^dchYÉ]VW^iVcih![jiVXXZeiZXdbbZ bZbWgZeZgbVcZciYj8dchZ^aYZHXjg^iYZhCVi^dchJc^ZhZc &.)*#AZg\^bZ!WVaVneVgaVgkdaji^dcZc&.).!hZg[j\^V| IVlVcZiaZh^\ZYZbZbWgZeZgbVcZci[jidXXjeeVgIVlVc# E`^cgXjegVhdch^\ZeZgbVcZciZc&.,&ÄC^mdchdjiZcVciaV 8]^cZXdcigZaÉJGHH# )<gVgY";gVcd^h9jbdci!:ce]hWf^_[feb_j_gk[0b[ibe_iZ[bW ]efeb_j_gk[Z[ifefkbWj_edi!EVg^h!:aa^ehZh!'%%,# *AZ\gdjeZ]jbV^cZhijcZedejaVi^dcfj^k^iYZej^hadc\iZbeh hjgjciZgg^id^gZ#>ahZY^hi^c\jZXaV^gZbZciYZaVY^VhedgV!XVg^acÉZhi eVh^hhjYÉjce]cdbcZb^\gVid^gZ!dj^hhjYÉjce]cdbcZ b^\gVid^gZigdeVcX^ZcdjbXdccjedjgcdjgg^gjchZci^bZciYZ Y^VhedgV#6^ch^aZh=dc\gd^h!Vgg^khVj>MZh^XaZYVchaVeaV^cZYZ =dc\g^Z!ZieghZcihcdiVbbZciYVchaZhjYYZaVHadkVfj^Z!n [dgbZcijc\gdjeZ]jbV^c!cdcjcZY^VhedgV# +Kd^g<gVgY";gVcd^h9jbdci!»8]^cZ/kZghjccdjkZa ZcakZbZciYZhHVW^cZh4¼!=eijhWj]_gk[i!c&,!hZeiZbWgZ '%%,]iie/$$lll#higViZ\^Xh^ciZgcVi^dcVa#Xdb$&,T%+#eY[ ,>ahnZmead^igZciaZhb^cZhYÉdg# ->ahnYkZadeegZciaZheaVciVi^dchYZiVWVX# .AZeVnhZhiVadghbd^cheZjeafjZaV;gVcXZ!aV<gVcYZ"7gZiV\cZ! aÉ>iVa^ZdjaÉ:heV\cZ!Xdch^YgZhheVgbZci# /AZeVhhV\ZYÉjcjhV\Zh^c\ja^ZgYjiZgbZghZgk|aVY^VhedgV _j^kZ|jcjhV\Zeajg^ZaYViZYjMMZh^XaZ# '&9ZhhZci^bZcih|aV[d^hk^h"|"k^hYZhdceVnhYZgh^YZcXZZi k^h"|"k^hYZhdceVnhYÉdg^\^cZ# ''Kd^g<gVgY";gVcd^h9jbdci!»JccdjkZaVXiZjg\deda^i^fjZ/aV Y^VhedgV^cY^ZccZ¼!=eijhWj]_gk[i!c&.!Vkg^a'%%-# '(AÉ6bg^fjZaVi^cZiV^iaVX]VhhZ\VgYZYZaÉ6bg^fjZYjCdgY#
ORIGINE ET DESTINATION DES MIGRANTS INTERNATIONAUX (CIRCA 2000)
1,07
Sources : HDR 2009, données fondées sur la base de données Migration DRC (2007).
Indice de développement humain, 2007
Très élevé Élevé Moyen Faible
La taille des pays est proportionnelle à la population en 2007.
Europe Afrique 0,01 0,02 0,31 0,25 0,13 0,08 0,75 0,35 0,30 19,72 1,33 1,34 15,69 0,35 0,06 2,44 0,14 0,73 13,18 35,49 1,29 0,53 8,53 9,57 8,22 1,65 0,22 7,25 3,13 1,30 3.54 31,52 0,84 3,1 1,24
Nombre de migrants (en millions) Régions
Amérique du Nord Europe Océanie Amérique latine et Caraïbes Asie Afrique Migration intrarégionale Océanie Asie Amérique latine et Caraïbes Amérique du Nord