Tests of Conditional Asset Pricing Models in the Brazilian Stock Market

CAHIER 1997

TESTS OF CONDITIONAL ASSET PRICING MODELS IN THE BRAZILIAN STOCK MARKET

Marco BONOMO1 and René GARCIA2

1

Pontificia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro

2

Centre de recherche et développement en économique (C.R.D.E.) and Département de sciences économiques, Université de Montréal, and CIRANO

October 1997

_______________

Financial support by the PARADI Research Program funded by the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) is gratefully acknowledged. Excellent research assistance has been provided by Stéphanie Lluis.

RÉSUMÉ

Dans cet article, nous testons une version du CAPM conditionnel par rapport au portefeuille de marché local, approximé par un indice boursier brésilien, au cours de la période 1976-1992. Nous tenons également un modèle APT conditionnel en utilisant la différence entre les taux d’intérêt sur les dépôts de 30 jours (Cdb) et le taux au jour le jour comme deuxième facteur en plus du portefeuille de marché pour capter l’important risque inflationniste présent durant cette période. Les modèles conditionnels CAPM et APT sont estimés par la méthode généralisée des moments (GMM) et testés sur un ensemble de portefeuilles construits selon la taille à partir d’un total de 25 titres échangés sur les marchés boursiers brésiliens. L’incorporation de ce deuxième facteur se révèle cruciale pour une juste valorisation des portefeuilles.

Mots clés : CAPM conditionnel, APT conditionnel, efficacité des marchés, risque et rendements variables dans le temps

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we test a version of the conditional CAPM with respect to a local market portfolio, proxied by the Brazilian stock index during the 1976-1992 period. We also test a conditional APT model by using the difference between the 30-day rate (Cdb) and the overnight rate as a second factor in addition to the market portfolio in order to capture the large inflation risk present during this period. The conditional CAPM and APT models are estimated by the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and tested on a set of size portfolios created from a total of 25 securities exchanged on the Brazilian markets. The inclusion of this second factor proves to be crucial for the appropriate pricing of the portfolios.

Key words : conditional CAPM, conditional APT, efficiency of markets, time-varying risk and returns

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