التنبـؤ بأزمات الأسواق المالـية

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                               Summary

This paper treats the question of crises predictions in financial markets which worries much of economists due to their big effects economically, socially and politically. Therefore, the research suggests some samples designed basically for use as early alarm systems to the Arabic markets and which match with their needs concerning the economic signs.

              

Reinhart , lizondo , kaminsky

                                                                    

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                                                                                                        1894   1896                                                           contagious               1   currency crisis                 depreciation  devaluation                  

(3)

                2   Banking Crises                       3  

Systemic Financial Crises

                                  4  

External debt Crises

                                common origins                                                          1992   1993                           

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                                              Fredric s.Mishkin            2   1       2                                                   3                             4                  5    Bank panic                    

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   Frederic                        Anatomy   1                    1998                                                                     Financial panic                                                                                                                        

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Anatomy Of Financial Crisis                            Bank Panic                              197 p  Cit  Op  Mishkin  Frederic s    1                                                                    ″     ″  

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                                                                          Leading Indicators    1                           Times  Tranquil   4                                                                                                               5   

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                                                               2                                                                                                                             1996                                  1     1998  KLR 

Kaminsky ,Lizondo and Reinhart

 

 

(9)

                Weighted

average of monthly percentage depreciation

        6                24          15               ) 7 (   1         2      3      4    5    6     7    M1  8    M2  9    CDP   10    11          12    13   broad money    14      15       2     1996  Frankel &Rose                            100      1971  –  1992         Early Warning

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System         F& R                 ) 8 (   1         2             3            f & r      25       10      f & r  ) 9 (   1     2    3        4    d p  Ğ   5    6             3        1996  STV 

sachs ,Tornell and Velasco

     

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               1994    1995      1995                                         10    1          2                     1995    1997       STV                 1994       1995                        L B      1990   1994      R E R      D L R         M2            

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   Weak fundamentals    R E R     L B                                  11    RER.DLR I ND =B1+B2RER +B3LB+B4 +B5LB.DLR+B6RER.DWF+B7LB.DWF+U1  ) 12 (    1       RER        B2+B4+B6     2       L B       B3+B5+B7    3        R2 = 0.69        69         IND                            1     2    3   M2     4   