The development of the engineering industries in East Africa mechanical engineering

, I

NITED NATIONS

_C G N O M I C

AND

OCIAL COUNCI

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EV

eN. 14/ INR/90

'I'HE DEVELOPME1'J'l' OF THE ENGINEERING INDUSTRIES IN

EAS~ ih~RICA'MECHP~ICAL ENGINEb~ING

I. INTRODUCTlm

1. This report deals primarily "ith the ccnsU\llption and production of mechanical engineering goods in East P~rica and the prospects for the development of the mech~nical engineering industries. These industries include three main divisions, first, the production of metal goods such as buildj~g components and household eQuipment,

secondly machines and thirdly transport eQuipment. Fnr further analysis, these divisions are divided into sub-groups according to the Standard International Trade Classification as follows'

69. Manufacture of metal

Finished structural parts and structures n.e.s.

Metal containers for storage and transport

]lire products (excludine; electric) and fencing grills Nails, screws, nuts, bolts) ri,ets and similar articles

of iron, steel or of copper

Tools for use in the hand or in machines Cutlery

Household equipment of base metals I!anufactures of metal, n.e.s.

70. Machinery

Power generating machinery, other than electrio Agricultural machinery and implements

Office maohines

MetallTorking machinery

Textile and leather machinery Machines for special industries

Machinery and appliances (,; ther than electrical) and machine parts, n.e.s~

73· Tr_ansp.2rt eq~ipmenJ;.

Railway vehicleG Road mcter vehicles

Road vehieles other than motor vehicles Aircraft

Ships and boats

z/

^ClC.14/ lliR/90 Page 2

2. Electrical macha.ne ry an.i apj.ar-a t.rs (division 72) anc, iron and steel ((:..lvisioYl 67) are tr,e subjects of s epa r a te rOJ;orts and are consir18Jr~cl ^r!8re on I.'!" to the exten-t- that they are necessary in .maki.ng long-term projections of total ~emarid.

3. ITo information has been. cO!j;pilec~ OL F'r sn ch So~aliland.and Helmion.·-

~Ioz&r:/:~iq~e, ,a1 thoug'h not wi thin the sub-region, has been included in the demand. forecasts as represe:~tln5a po ssi.bLe nar-k et for the

in,iL:::_::~i:'.i.esnf,.the.sub-regi.on.

,.',

•

E/ CN .14/ mR/ 90

Page 3

II. PRESENT CONSUMPT.lGN OF ENGli'EI'AtING PRODUCTS

4. ,The -preaen t level of consumptaon :Dr eneineering products in East Africa has been de.r av ed frOID data on production, imports, and exports made available, partly, D1 response to a ~uestionnaire sent out by ECA and partly from foreign trade statistics. The information obtained related usually to the years 1961/3, and may therefore be considered as giving an average figure of consumption D1 1962. In some cases, only value figures were available, in which oase they were converted to quant a ty (tons) on the basis of a detailed product analysis of more complete returns from other countries. No returns were obtained from Rwanda and Malawi - accounting for about 3 per cent of the

consumption of the sub-region - and for these countries, estimates were made on ,t.he basis of their gross domestic product. The basic

information resulting from these en~uiries and estimates is presented in Annex I.

5. Total imports of iron and steel and of engineering products, that is, virtually total 'direct and indirecH' steel consumption during this period, amounted to 770,000 tons" .of whichabout..430,000 was,iron and steel including about 5 per cent non-ferrous metals. The largest consuming coun tr-y was P..hodesia, and the smallest Somalia.

,

As shown in the following t~ble, total consumption per head in most countries ranged from 2 1/2 to

10

kilograms, <lith higher levels of consumption in Kenya

(17.5)

and in Mauritius, Zambia and Rhodesia (30 to

50l.

The average for the sub-region <las about

10

kilograms.

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4

Consumption per head. of all >engineering products in East African Countries

~ou'it~~~T kgs_

- - _ . - _ . - >--

Ethiopia 2.43

SOL121ia 2_{' /}0

MaLawi. ^{'") r:}L . /

Ugamla .3-4

Burund,i 4.75

Rwand a 4.9

Tanzania 5·=3

JVlo z'2.pbic;ll,le 7.9

?,radagas?~r_. 8.5

K"nY<J, 17 .4

Zambia 30.2

Mal'.Ti tius 39·7

Hhod esi a :)6.8

.

Sub-reGion 9,9

C,_'ill t--..--.ie8 of the HOl'~d ranges from about 10 kilograms in Pakistan and I,df" to from 400/500 kilograms in USA, Czechoslovakia, Germany,

Dl.stributlon of con-suoption per head of Engineering Products

1959/60 Lou

Medium

10-20 kg.

20-50 kg.

130-210 kg.

250-500 kg.

India, Turkey, Pakistan Ch.ina , Por tugal and Gr eece

South Africa, F''inLand , Israel, Poland, Austria, Italy

Be1c;ium, Un¹ted LingdoI1) Germ:;~JjY, Sweden, Cze cho s Lovakia , Uni t e.i States vf Amel~ioaJ

Canad.a, Un a or: of :~ovi(;t Soci· ..Ii ct Republics~

FlCN

^.l4/INB/90

Page 5

zrr.

THE PRES&'';' SIT:.'_,,:=~I-~F ~JE TGI:EilllTI'l ::TT.'S:::UES IN EAST AFRICA

6. Of the total concumption of engineering products (including ba s i,c ircn and steel) in the sub-region of 770, 000 tons ir. 1962 it is

estimated that local J!roc.uctiGn accounted. fur 190 ,000 ton e or 25 per c ent , The highest proQuction was in Rhodesia (70,000-80,000), followed by

Zambia ( 40 ,000-50 ,000), Kenya (30,000-40,000), 'I'an zan.ia (35,000-40,000) and EtJiiopia (7,000-'10,000). Countries with

a

^{j.r-oduction below 1,000}

tcrrs per annum .inc Lu.i ed_~'Burundi, rtwanc.;.a, SO;:,dliE.:-, and Mad.agascar. It shouId, lie noted that the fiGure for -Rhodesia is Lncr-ea s ed by the output for local con suraptz on of tl.e sub s't.an tial primary iron arid steel

industry and for Tanzania by that of thealuninium processing and_{_. . , 'C} galvanizing indUiJi<fY'

The engineering industries proper, .i ,e., excluding the basic metal industries, are r-eLati.veIy treLl, 'ievelo};,eu in relation to manuf'ac t.ur-ang industry generally, accounting for 20 per cent of the net output of all manu.facturing industry in Kenya an a 25 per cent in . Rhodesia. Nevertheless, with the. aevelopme"t of the economy, the demand for engineering pro~ucts beccmes steacily more import~lt, and engineering .Goods (excludin£ iron and steel) account for over on e-cthi.r-d of total imports into most countries including Kenya and Rhoiesia, which have already..0. substantial engineering industry.

7. Turn-ing^{- no w} ,to mechari'ical ^{e n . ,}incer in 0, ^{tL e m os} t developed sector in all<coUh tries is the fabrication of metal proclucts for building and

hOli~ehold"purpbsesaccounting, e.g"., for about one-third of" total engineering Dutpti~in the case of Kenya and one half in the case of Zambia •. ' In the most industrialized countries of the region, two-thirds of this market is supplied by local industry, and in all COUDt.r-Le s there is at,)east. one factory engaged in these activities.

'Li,<;ht- building compon on tsare fabricated in struc-tural engineering works

~,'all

countries, but because of the handling facilities,

sawin~,

and welding techn~Ques requlred, the heavi~r structures are made only'

F/

CN •14/ nTH/90 Page 6

in Rhojesia an~ Tanzania. In the smaller markets, the structural

engineering works include in their activities are manufacture of window and door frames and metal furniture generally, but in the larger

markets, e.g., Rhodesia and Kenya, these activities are specialized.

The ^next most important activity undertaken in most countries, with the c;x:caption of Malawi, Somalia and Rwanda, is the manufacture of .hol Lowar e , Other metal containers for commercial purposes are less generally manufactured, depending in the case of cans, for example, on the availability of exportable agricultural produce.

Wire and wire products are made primarily in Rhodesia, but also in Tan~ania and Mauritius. Smaller items include chains, springs, crown co:rks primarily manufactured in Rhodesia and razor blades manufacturod in Tanzania.

8. The next most important·activity is the manufacture and especially the repair of transport equipment accounting, e.g., for about one- quarter of total engineering goods products in Rhodesia, Kenya and nearly one-half in Zambia. The repair of road vehicles, railway

rolling stock and ships is a most valuable in traduction to engineering

in under-doveloped countries since it is easily embarked upon and is

free from coopetition from abroad as repairs are necessarily under- taken in th~ country where the vehicleB are used. An estimate for repairs to road vehicles may be based on the number of vehicles in

each country, assuming an average annual value of work done per vehicle (including the value of spare parts) of $140. In all countries with the exception of Rhodesia the output of this work far and away exceeds that of n,," equipment.

The proportion of the market for new vehicles held by the domestic industry in the most industrialized countries of East Africa is about one-third. Production falls 1n~o the two main categories of complete assembly and partial manufacture. Light comm8rcial vehicles are assembled f~am imported parts, the me~hod of assembly as carried on, for example,· in Salisbury, Nairobi or Tananarive being the same as in

E/(Thj.14/ INR/90 Page

7

~op-e-~ except that. it ~."'; lf1sS 2utornated 5, e~6'~) the VTork is not' carried on a belt and the d Lvi sioz; of Labcur is less intensive, Otherwise, ,the, same jigs are uc,eel ,to uOl'i:tX:ul ;,reld.ing, bolting and drilling

oper.a__,ti,~!1s_ ·as e.lSGWhECe" }Vlal1J.lf-.lcturJng -consi eta of the fabrication of .,bodies for buses". -~rucks anrl. h eavy ·commerciaJ· v.ehicles using"

imported ohas e i,e and '~D.8" l':vlYstruc1aon of traiJ era using imported

_ • • J _ . ' " - - -_._.

wheels and axles.. The manur'actur-e of bicycles is being started in Uganda w,i.th progressive manufacture of parts to reach SOper cent in five years.

9. The railway repair shop in any African country is easily the largest and most important engineering establishment. L~ the main shops, e.g" at Nairobi, Bulawayo, Djibouti, Tananarive, rolling stock including locomotives, wagon:~ and car-r-Lag es 81-e maintained and

repaired according to a regular schedule and the more rapidly wearing parts such as brake blncvs, axle boxes, springs and many other compcnents are manufactured in the foundry, forge and machine shop of the works.

In some countries, 8.go, Hhodesi~ and Madagascar, the Qanufacture of wagons and carrlages using im~orted wheels and axles is undertaken and

in others~ e.g., KenY2j thGS6 are a8sembled~

10. Dry dock and siip way facilities for ship repairing and building exist in Kenya (Mombasa), /.Iaclae;ascar (Diego··Suarez), Mauritius (Port LOUis) and ships up to abouL 3,000 tons C~~ be built in these places.

Ships for lake traffic an~ fishing boats are built up to 1,000 tons at Kiswnu on Lake Victorla and up to 100 tons at Bur-undi. on Lake Tanganyika.

11. The production of machinery is the least developed of the metal industries in East Africa (less than 10 per cent of the market in the most industrialized countries) mainly because the national market for the specialized machines used in industry is not large enough. Most of the output consists of repairing imported machines which, in this case,

hm·re~Jer, is a manuf'accur:-Lng activi ty since it .i.nvoLves the casting, forging, or machining of replacement parts. The output of new equipment

F/ON .i4llNRJ9o

Page 8 "

is, ,in general lilIli ted to accessories "in general use, such as valves atld pumJ;lsand equipment for the large basic indus'tries of Africa, Le.;

grinding equipment .f'oz- the mines and milling eCiuipmentfor thep:rooess- ing of,agr'i:cultural produoe, e.g., can e sugar, oil'seeds,sisa.l, etc'.

Tractor-drawn agTioultural implements (light plough's and harrows) are manufactured (ex discs and ball bearIhgs)in 'Kenya and RhodasLa ,'assembly and progr-es sIve manufacture of diesel engines in Kenya,and i t i s

proposed to manufacture tractors in Uganda. Sewing lnachines are partly manufactured and assembled in Rhodesia.

."..

E/CN .14/lNR/90 Page 9

IV JEliIAND PROJECTIONS

12. Since engineerlllg goods, either direct~y in the form of steel f~r

construction, 0""(' ).l1d.l:::'ectl;y i:o ·~::.1E::. f'o.rrr; ()f illaG:line:..:':J^T ~'.nd vehicles, enter into all s eoucr s of the eoonomy, it is reasonable to relate their consumption to -i:.he d e've Lopment of thE:: ecoromy as nea su r ed by the gross domestic pr-oduct , Tho f'oi l.ow ir.g' -::El,le shcr~·[.3 tl.e Leve.l c.f GDP

=>C".' l."-~,·_,c. in various African countries in 1962 and -(;ho cor-r e.ipon.Ling level of total engLnee r arig goods ccnsumpticn ,

Engineering goods consumption and GDP

Ethiopia Mozambique 'I'an zan La NigE..r..La Ugarda Kenya

Tunisia Zamb..a Mauri tius Ghana Rhodesia

rn~D/

....I..JJ.. / ,-'-'.1.-

US $

42·7

55·0 60,0 63.7

79.2

112,8

~'1-7,l!

189.6 190.0

~21C',:]

BGr.::/

^:ap

kg.

2.43

7·9

5.23 6.2

3.4

17 .4 8,5

39.7

27.5

568

150 , - -,- -,- , - , - -,- . - . - ,--- "T

Relation Between Engineering Goads Consumption per Head and G.O.P. per Head Rapport entre 10 consommolion d'articles mecaniques par habitant et Ie P. I. B. par habitant

0) logy::. 1.545 log 1(-1.99 100

.14

•

10

2 ~6 ⁸

0 7 ·9

5() 100 150 200 250 300 350 4 0

PC GOP US II ^<,

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CN . 14/

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90 Page 11

A regression line (see qhart) fitted to the above data gives an_-

-',' "'''',~.'-' . ' - ,

elastici ty of 1.545

for'

iric):;::eases of ,steel con sumptaon in relation to increases in GDP per head, so that'I'or the sub-region as a whole, corresponding to the expected increase in GDP per head of 3 per ~ent

from 1962 to 1970,lIt ha t of engineering goods should increase by 4.6 per cent. After taking account of expected population increases

this gives a total increase of 6.7 per cent per annum.

Over a period of tweuty years, such a rate nf growth would ,give a total increase in consumption of 440 per cent. Increases of this

magni tude have in fact have been obtained during the last twenty years in many countries where consumption,as in Africa,was initially at a low level. The following table shows increases in consumption of engineering goods per head' in the twenty years subsequent to 193.6/38 in a number of countries with rol initial consumption below 50 kilograms per head. The rate of increase of GDP in these countries during the period was between 6 and 10 per cent per annum. Only in the case of Portugal, Turkey, Greece and DAR has the increase in oonsumption been relatively small, and in the DAn during the last five years of the period an increase in consumption per head of 75 per cent was achieved.

11

The rates of growth for individual countries are given in .Annex II.

It shou.Id ; however, be appreciated tha't isQ],ated economies like Mauritius and Reunion have special _probl~ms (such

as

the low basie.

land, man ratio) in their economic developmen. t, and this s tudy assumes explicitly that the future development III these economies will continue to leave at least as large an L~dustrial component as obtains at present.

E/CN .14/D!lR/90 Page 12

Increase in consumption of engineering goods 1936/8 tn _195~

Bie/cap Bie/cap Per cent

1936/8 1956/^{8 increase}

kg kg

Brazil 11, 37 340

Yugoslavia 17

78

460

Italy 52 143 300

Israel 42 145 350

Poland 30 195 650

China 3 20 670

Venezuela 37 105 285

Hungary 50 174 350

Rumania 22 124 560

Spain 15 70 465

Portugal 23 41 i80

Turkey 10 14 140

Gree'ce 24 33 140

DAR 15 22 150

13. The above relation between increases in GDP and increases in total engineering goods consumption has been used to make demand projections for each country in 1970, 1975 and 1980 as shown in Annex II.

Total consumption is expected to increase from the 1962 level of 770,000 tons to 2,740,000 by 1980, Le., about 3.6 times, and per caput consumption from 10 kilograms to 24 kilograms, i.e., by 2.4 times, which is realistic having regard to the experience of other countries.

Wi thin these increases,~changes are expected in the rela tive importance of the various groups of engineering pr-oduots and a study has been made of the relation between increases in GDP per head and the percentage which each group forms of total consumption, Groups

forming an increasing proportion of total ccnsumption include agricultural

Ej

CN .14/JNR/90 Page 1)

machinery and "ire products, and groups farmine;' a' decreasing proportion (alLlOugh increasing absolutely) include hand .too Ls and bicycles. In

this way, a table has been derived showing the estimated consumption- of the main categories of engineering products for eachcountryl!in

1980 arid for the sub-rregi on as a whole in 19£10,1975 and 1980 (Annex III; ,

1/

In the case of the countries belonging to the former Central African Federation the basic figures were increased by 20 per cent to

compen sat e for the 10" level of consumption in 1961/3 relative to earlier years.

Rhodesia Zambia

:EVCN .14/ IN R

/ 9

⁰

Pa2e

:'-'4

'J. c.uE TY;FE, SIZE AITD LOCATllll. OF 3NGmEERTIW WORKS

14. ·?::om·the pUTely ·economic 'Point of .l:liewI mcta I .r:rocessing works like other factories should be located at the point of lowest cost, incluaing _th~ cost

0:

manufacturing

it

the site and the oost of asse:nblingraw· material"s and delJ.Vering the finished. pr-oduo ts to the market. In general, in metal p=,ocessing, raw material (metal) losses are r~latlvely small and since the cost of transporting finished pro{iucts J,er ton mile is from tvo to six times as high as the cost of transporting raw material (steel sheets or sections) factories are locat3Q near the market which also tends to be a local or national market. This tendency is stron,~er, for exanp Le , in the foundry

industry where processing losses are high, rav rr.aterial (scrap) is locally available and where there is also a local rnerk et for repair work and construction. Similarly, in the canning industry where thG transport coot of tins is about eight times Us high as on tin plate, production of cans is located .u: the agricul tural areas which also saves the cost of transpor~ing the produce.

?he location and accessibility of the market is deterffiined oy the transport system and the distribution of population. The transport

S';'lSt,.;ITl provides good links betvleen Burundi, Uganda, Keny a and

Tanzania, but in comparison isolates Ethiopia to the north and, to a

lesser extent, Zambia and Rhod e sda to the south , 'This separat i.on is

reinforced by the present distribution of population. Tanzania is

divided into tHO market areas, one on the coast centered on Dar-es-Salaam and. tb.e other On the southern shore of Lake Victoria. On the other hand.

the arbltrary choice of limits to the sub-region obscures tU8 fact that Zambia has a substantial market in Katanga and Burundi in particular j~

the Eastern Congo.

The general market division for the seb-region in 1980 is therefore approximately as follows'

720,000 tons ~lus part MozambiQue 400,000 tons plus part Katanga - - - -

Kenya, Uganda, part Tanzania, Rwanda,'Bu.rundi Ethiopia

Madagasoar Mauritius' Malawi Somalia;

E/ eN •).4/ INH/90

Page 15

880 ;'000 tons plus part Eastern Congo llJv,OOO GOnB

150,000 tom;

- ',J

100,000 tons 3(;,000 tens

Plants reQuiring a market l.ar€er than that available in the smaller countr-Les are likely

",0

be located In the first three areas and plants reQuiring a suo-regional market w'th d.istribu tion both by land and sea a coastal locatio.!1, e~b.^j Dar-es--Salaam.

These_,m~rk;et divi",ions are less signi.fic;ant for hign valued

prcducts, engineerin(;lirod\J.cts costing us:~ 1,900 to 2,500 per ton will be more efficiently ma~ufactured aLd transported on a sub-regional scale than s tz-uc tur os.cr casti'l6iO co s

.. ^.

^{~ "} t.in.; ;)250 to $500 per ton, for which transFort cha;r;ges . .o"er ^d d:i,e:hccuqe,pf JOO miles will amount to

15. Off-:so>tting the tendenoy towa:cds a number of local or- na tiona}

faotories-, are': th:Er) economies of'- scale' and Lotrer- manuf'acturIng costs whi ch canibe obtain ed by prol.'.ucing

on

^a large ar a Le for a sub-regional market .. _~hese "economies C0LSist, first of all, "of' superior processing methods , e.g., the use of more pOi,erful machines which l-rork faster and shape metal more Quiokly, the shaping of metaloy pressing instead of cutting, .the use of special tools' en p.r e s s e s , etc. In some cases,

e.g., the pressing or' ;car:botiJEis--fol' 1Jasseng-8T cars and the manufacture of some oomponents for engines,' ;these economies are decisive. The second economy of scale oomes from the possIbility of _~ €reater

division of labour allowing the operatives to specialize on particular jobs. This is important under Afrioan coniitLons since the efficiency of African labour is much higher on repetitive work. The third economy arises when the scale of operation is sufficient to use to the full the minimum managerial and tecbn ical staff necessary fer ~he prooess in

...., .,' . ,," ··.i

:E)ICN .14/ INR/90;' Page 16

question and to s ecur e full time operati.on of plant andmachinery by being ab Le to.switch pr oductLon when necessary an.dsoaPerat.e ana three shift basis. In the, short-term,this is probably the most

important economy of acaLe since technical staff and machines· are bbtb·

",;. '.,- ':", ""

very expensive in relat·iQ!). to the. level:,of Afripan w%\'es:;lm.J:L t<;> .achLeve

_ .'-_,':.,.:;~J.:~".'. ",'~, 'c: ... ;.-:'.~ ,-" '. ,..' .'. ~_.' - ',,'. , : ., ''-''''

it many estabfl",bments ma1l:e.a:·]1ar:j...tllj.f.p...OdJc t ..-a!J.d"c:r.if;..<I..r!.th~ ;:;:DC²

J.::-J ;';'!:1 ,. ' _' _' , ¥ ••.~_.J.. .- .... '-' "-

first two: Bconomies. The fourth. ecol:l0ffill derives .from th<p<6ac:li 'th2!t9: :ct

'''_'',:.'~t':; ': " ,,~,-'["-':""- ^{"'1 ' : . :.:_, - , .. __}

in g en~r.:~,l!,t!Le.~~pi~B;}.. invEl~tljJent"p,!+,1;lnii{ o±;p*"oriU9:ti~!1·1s.. smaller it)''' [,

. , ' . : _.~__ J._,'" ..

a la:r:~~i:,~~ct~Hr t~~ ix;.~:.~m?t,t:.~q.l!.':' Th~s!o'RonRmy.:lllustjbed:a.nkedt"<il:t'.:,... ·;:rJ

course, with the I'0ssibility Of working aW,qlOa~l;.y ^Ii'S possible to'a ,.to>

".1 . , " •J.-- . , ' ,. .,,,' , '~-' ' ..

three shift continuous basis.

"";"

.. ",

-'. ^~. "-,-:- ...^{'.":, " .,,;/}

16. On the basis of a ccnsider-a tion of manufacturing opdii't'J.ons in Europe and the United States~a minimum size has been established for typical plants in each group of engineering activities (Annex IV).

Under African conditions it may be assumed that the labour '£:orce will be about half as large again as in Europe, i.e., that productivity will be two-thirds of European productivity, and .on.e-thirdof pr-oduct-->

iVity in United States small plants, and the investment per unit about one-third higher. It will be seen (Annex IV) that these plants usually lie in the range 200 to 500 persons employed under European conditions.

IBelow this figUre, and even assuming that the market is available, it

I . . ,

liS doubtful whether plant and skilled personnel can be fully ?mployed, and above th~s figure, there may be distribution and managerial

Idifficulties. Such plants are larger than those normally

r~garded

^as

Ibelonging to small-scale industry. As indicated in another paper, there lis considerable scope for small-soale industry but, ⁱⁿ general,

la~s~~

Ifactor~es w~' . 'tli grea ert aap~'t 1a equ~pmen. t t lare necessary 0 seoure 9ng-

I

t e r m incr'eases in productivity.

EjCN

.14/lNR/90 Page 17

-

VI. PROPOSED FACTORIES

17. s~pe ~t may be considered that it takes about one year to project a fac-t"ry., one tc two years to construct it, and another' year for

trainj.ngij.nd, running-in, many of the factories proposed below are not likely 01;0 coft\ei!l:'\;o. pr-oduct i.on un til the 1970' s, ^SO that the following propo.sals relate to the demand projection for 1980. A further reason for choosing this later year is that many of the factories proposed will begin on an assembly basis and will only subsequently undertake substantial manufacturing operations, and the plants proposed below are, in general, manufacturing plants rather than assembly plants.

18. The first grouf in the metal manufacturing division is 691, i.e., finished structural parts and structures, and consumption in this group

is estimated by 1980 to amoUnt to between 65,000 and 70,000 tons per annum. The products of this group are used by the constrllction engineers who operate in every oountry, although the extent to whioh

.

they rely on their own or locally produced materials or imported

structures·v<iries from country to country and from product to product.

The main items required are'-

70 per cent light steel structures

15

^{per cent} heavy steel structureo, including bridgework

10 per cent scaffold materials

5

^{per cent} windows and doors.

The consumption of heavy structures at about 10,000 tons per annum justifies from a teohnioal point of view One factory and only ono for the whole sub-region, and in accordance with the distribution of demand (Annex III) should be located in Zambia. Details of the proposed

plant are given in Annex V.

19. The demand for light structures is much greater (45,000 to 50,000 tons per annum) ard would be further increased by including metal furniture, e.g., chairs and bedsteads, the consumption of which is ccomparable-

tb:

that of windows and doors. As the economic size of the

F/CN •14/nrR/90 Page 18

plant is about the same as for heavy structures, it is possible to consider a factory operating in most countries which in fact is the position at the present time~ except that at one er.d of tKe: scale, modern and specialized factories exist :en Rhodesia and Kenya,· working at only about half capacity ''':lile at the other end, e.g., Malawi, output is only maintained by producing' a great variety of products more or less on a jobbing basis 'ra·thar than on mass pr-oduo^trion. lines.

Such a d-iversification i s necessary in the initial stages. A Large proportion of matal products such as tanks, window frames, bedsteads, commercial motor bodies, are made by the saoe processes of cutting, bending, drilling and "elding as the constrllCtionengineer employs.

In~urundi, for example,pne engineering firm combines the manufacture of light.: structures .with that of rne tor ibodi e s , ships and boats, while another combines the manufaoture of window and door frames with that of chairs" beds, etc. The mOre specialized factories, however, have a higher-productivity and in clue cour-se such items as window and door frames, for the manufacture of which special:presses can be used, the manufacture of metal furniture andvthe manufacture of transport

equipment should ce specialized activities. A movement in this direction can nOw only come about as a :,:,esult of competition and the lowering of tariff bar-r a.er-s , From the table (Annex"'lll), it "ill be seen that Rhodesian ca~acity c~n be increated by one-half while Uganda can produce up to 1,000 tons per annum, Kenya 2,000 tons per annum and Tanzania 3,000 tons per annum , Only highly ,iivers.ified plants can exist in Ethiopia, Somalia and Malawi.

20. The con sumpt Lon of metal containers (692) in 1980 at )5,000 tons is estimated to, consist of^t

50 per cent tanks .and vat.s

15

^{per cent} gas cylinders

30 per cent metal boxes and cans and pliable metal tubes 5 per cent drums ;for milk, petrol, paint, etc.

About- 70 per cent of t.o tal" oonsumption is in,Mozambique., liliodesia and Zambia. Some of the, tanks and. vats are;" essentially structural products

EjCN

.14/IJ,'j"R/90 Page 19

falling within the provll1ce of the construction engineer and can bc made in evei:~T cow:ti';y. 11~le products n ov con s ide;... ed are, however, bent and pressed from flat steel, and include boilers and gas cylinders.

Two plants are proposed, one of 16,000 tons per annum capacity including 5,000 tons for gas cylinders, located in either Rhodesia or Zambia and supplying these countries and Mozambique. The other of 7,000 tons per annum capacity, including 2,000 tons for gas cylinders, should be located in Kenya and would supply all other countries.

'Ilithree;:ard to cans and metal boxes, there is, as stated above, a strong tenden'cY because of transport costs to manufacture these "here ..

they are used for canning operations, e.g., for th€ export of meat, fish, vegetables and fruit, and such plants are normally established

;where the expor-t market reaches about $250 ,000 per annum. Present capacitY.WilLat:. least double by 1980, location depends on developments in agricuLture but presen,t indications are for new factories or

extensions in all Gountrie.s exoept Somalia and Burundi and in 'I'an zan.ia where present capacity, is pr-o babIy sufficient.

21. The consumption of'wire products (693) at about 80 ,000 tons per annum in·1980, is one uf "he larf;est Detal pr o.luct groups and is' estimated to consist ofi

50 per cent 20 per cent 10-15 per cent

wire rope and cables wire gauze and netting fencing lrire~

Two wire drawing works should be established; one drawing fine and high tensile wire for cables and rope with a capacity of from 40,000 to 50,000 tons per annum, and another drawing mild steel "ire for fencing, etc., with a capacity of 30,ooe 'tOllS per annum. Economies would be derived by locating these plants alongside the steel works manufacturing wire rod e.g., as at present in Rhodesia.

Three factories each with annual capaclty cf about 15,000 tons are proposed for the manufacture of wire rope ani cables, one in Rhodesia, one Zambia and one in Kenya.

E/

CN .14/ lNR/ 90 Page 20

~,o factories are proposed for the ~anufacture of wire gauze and netting; one in Zambia and one in Ke1<ya, each with a capacity of

7

to 8;000 tons per annum, together with an extension of capacity in Rhodesia.

The manufacture of wire fencing for general purposes including building should be undertaken in one factory with a capacity of 8 to 10,000 tons.per OOlllum located in either Kenya, Rhodesia or Zambia in order and serving the whole sub-region.

22. Jhe total consumption of nails, screws, bolts, etc., in 1980 will be between 55,000 and 60,000 tons per annum. The. minimum scale

of output is low and each country could produce these articles, but it would be desirable for the various countries to agree to. specialize on different si~e ranges. The principal consumers are Zambia, Rhodesia, Kenya, Tanzania and Ethiopiiil; gut a more detailed study iJ3 required

before r aoommendations can be made on location, capacity and types.

23.' The estimated consumption of group 695 (tools for use in the handrl

or machines), in 1980 is about4e,000 tons, of which between 80 and 85 per cent will consist of hand tools used in agriculture and forestry, Le., spades, forks, hoes, etc. It w.ill be assumed that about half these requirements are imported. Consumption would allow of factories with the following oapacity, Kenya, 5,000 tona per annum capacity for own use; Tanzania, 5,000 tons per annum capacity for ^01<n use and export;

Zambia 5,000 tons per annum Rhodesia, 2,000 to 3,000 tons for own use, Ethiopia and Zambia, 2,000 tons per annum; Madagascar, 1,000 tons per annum. Such plants 'exist in Kenya, Uganda, RhOdesia and Burundi, and present· capacity in these countries is probably adequate.

24. The demand for cut'lery in 1980 is estimated at about 5,000 tons per annum, and the local industry should be able to cover between 40

,

to 50 per cent of consumption. Imports cf stainless steel will be required and factories withannual capacity ranging from 20 to 400 tons (see Annex ^Vi) can be established in the various countries to meet domestic requiremer,ts. The manufacture of ra:oor blades is already

E/G;^kl4/INR/90 Page 21

t.h. ,ubco-region.

25. The demand for household equipment in 1980 will amount to about _30,-000 tons p81' annuni , of whi ch about 6u per c ent ',rill con s i.st of

~'w=_-l.J';Cl.re and ^{e n a m e}Lwa^{r e ,} and 20 ^{t o} 25 ^{p e r c e n t o f} domestic ^{s t c v e s,} cookersl'.etc , (non-electric).

':olloware factories with a capacity of b etween 2,OUO an d 3,000

to~s o'er annum are of an eoonomic size, and n ew factories can be Lo ca ted or 'existing capacity expcrnded an Kenya , Rhodesia, Zambia,

Madagascar~ Tan3aniar

For the manufacture of domestic s ~OVbS cwo :':'a0'~ol id~ sCich of 1 to 1 1/2 thousand tons per annlli~ should be constructed in Kenya and Tanzania.

26: 'Gr:,mp 698, con s i.stang' of miscellaneous manufactures of mota L, is a l~~ge one with an estimated consumption of about 70,000 tons in

1980.

r't inc'iudes such Hems as springs, chains, cr-ovn corks and a greE.t

v'c:-.rie"ty

of' fi'ttihgs for hU.i.l::jng and dOI:18S L::(~~ ^',eSC 8"6"" cioor hinges, locks et.c , , whi ch can be stamped out on 8,na11 presses located

in' Erery country.

27. The next 'Owo di.visi c ns concern the manufacture of machinery and tram.port eqn:Lpn:e'l'i. anc; gi'il8 ::c 1.S8 to faa tories in ''Thiee. a variety of CO~;IO-.ents are ma_lufalJtured and then a s s ernbLed intu complete raach in e s or ve.h:·_cles·, ,ll_-"; p:c88en+) :]O::'-G of <:ohis "lork in Af:rican countr i.e s is

9.' s ".'Jly "ark ba s ed on imported components. For the 1980 proj ections

manur'ac tur izig most of their r-equccements , although they may begin with substantial impo.l.~-ts of compon ents , In many cas-es, the size of the uarket is sufficient fvr only one factory, but as the market increases there will be a po s s Lbi Li ty of ei.t Ler' two faoto r i e s or of manufacturing COmponents in specialized factories a t a number of places in the

sut--z-egion , In any event , some more general corapon ent s or accessorieE', 8vgv, 3tarters fOr L~ternal combustion engines, ref:ectors and

Ej

CN .14!INa/90 Page 22

accumulators for motor cars, can be specialized in this way from the.

beginning. As many of these plants pr0duce high value products, they can be located virtually anywbea-e ,

A further point in connexion with the manufacture of machinery and transport. equapment is the de8D>abilJ.ty of accepting some limitation on variety at an early stage so that the market for new eCl:ipment oan be reduced to a manageable number of types and the production of replacement parts facilitated.

28. The first grcup in the machinery division is the manufacture of power generating machinery (711) for which the demand in 1980 will amount to 35,000 to 40,000 tons. Of this, 60 per cent will consist of internal combustion engines and 20 to 25 per cent of steam

generating boilers.

If it is assumed that about half thA reCluirements for internal combustion engines can be met by local production,' say up to units of 50 1I.P., then there is room for one large f'act.or-y v i.t.h an output of 10,000 tons per annum or 15,000 to 20,000 engines. The main markets for these _e~gines will be Rhodesia/Zambia and Kenya, in order of importance, and the factory might be located in Rhodesia/Zambia or, alternatively, t1fO smaller factories producing from 8,000 to 10,000 units per annum could be located in Kenya and Rhodesia/Zambia.

Steam generating boilers should be produced in a sub-regional plant of 6,000 to 8,000 tons annual capacity, located in Rhcdesia, Zambia or Uganda. Such a plant would reClulre about half its material in the form of pipes, and half in the form of plates •

.,;~'- ~.l.~·. ',\~ "-';.

29. The consumption of the next group, agricultural machinery, etc., (712), is estimated at about 54,000 tons in 1980. Important categories are tractors. and accessories accounting for between 50 and 60 per cent of .con sumpti.on , i .e., 28,000 tons per annum, a.nd agricultural machinery, i.e., CUltivating and harvesting ma.chines accounting' for 20 per cent, or about 10,000 tons per annum.

E/

^{CN .14/}

nm/

^,C

"Page 23 .

.-:-.:una ted at between ;.0"000 and ..2o,q9~ uni tr, :::Jp..?_ iJt',J,;;:L,-'.. '.!+,.J8U 2_'~-d. .,.,~)'./)C:j '.l.p 1;0 about 25 !{~P"

shoulG. be pr-oo.uc ec. and tLs o·\r.i.\....~G .l.EpC .."tl;d.. In this case, a sub- regional rnaa-kec is nevE:'S32i~':I an d 'Pan zar.da (!Js.r-cs-Sc.J.aam) probably.

offer's the cheap::8;: ^J.U0"lt i .m,

Of tho :oa:d,et for agricultur,'ll mach in or-y , about 3,000 to 4,000 tons par antlU:Jil ~;r:lll con si st ,Ji:- p Lougr.s , ar d ei x plants each w-ith a capacity- .of' 6 to "(00 tons pel' ann~Jh,_are proposetL. Important markets are Rhodesia) Zambia, Kenya; 'I'an z an i.a , Ebhi opi.s, and Madagascar.

The remaining pgr:i.cultur-aL machin ery , i a. _~ :1.arve"sting, sowing, t.4reshiYiE; 8'~',C

-plant 'iii th a capacity of from 7 to 8jOOOt<ms, 10c3 ted in Kenya.

, - ' . - '~'J

30.

;m

the 'offica machiner-y cc,tegur;" ('114), '1 sub-regional factory should be con s nr-ucteu :(OT <1::', ;ne~::1..J.-':'':'l~l,Lu:·e ,)1 ·~Y"'Jew}·.iters and simple ca LcuLat ing rcachines with all annua I cu t'put of some 200,000 to 2~O,OOO

uni 1;8. These are higb V3.J,t-:.c nTr;ducts ar.c; a I t.uough a c en tral Lo cati on (,Kenya) is proPC?$eci theil r:l':·.rlL~·3.C+;ure oar, be Lo ca ted anywher-e.

31. In the metal\w, lei,~, .. _' (

reach b€t,:een n.Vo;) "",:'-

'h(Jccr

t.ons and. about half, say 5,000 to 6 ,000 tons" vIill consist -jf -a-:tJ.umb'8:t.,:'cf -,-·ela'tive:'.y si rrp l.e machine's whi ch should be producecl l.n :"3pecia~!_';_zec.. f2ctories each catering for the whole sub-region. These fa(:tO)_~;:EH? f'~o1~1(( cmpLoy tr-or.. 15 +'0 300 ,people (see Annex -y:) accoz-d.cig to p.J:'od.1.:.c,~,_.,~nd should be _~ocated- as' t'o l Lcws g-

1. Vertical benc!1'ani hand." drilling' mac hLne s wi th an annual capa ci t,Y of ;~,()OJ tons in .Zamh-ia.

.. 2 .. Shears and metal cutting saws 'iii th an annual caj.aci ty of 1,000 'tons in 'I'anaan fa ,

Fo r the manur'ac tur-e o r uoo L gl'inding rnach ir.as five factories, each of capacity 200 ~on3 )er annum may be con s t.ructed in

<'^{r ' -. , -}

Tan3ania, Uganda, Kenya, Rhodesia and Zambia.

B/CN.14/mR/90 Page 24

4. A special f'a c torv for the manufacture of simple La thes for r-epai.r shops "ith a capacity of about 3,000 tons per annum

32.' Total consumption of the textile and lea t.he r machinery group (717) will amount to between 15,000 and 16,000 tons by 1980, of which from 10,000 to 12,000 tons will be textile machinery. This estimate

is in conformity with the requirement for' textile machinery given ir, the paper on textiles (:EVCN .14/mR/86). This demand will include some 3,000 to 4,000 looms per annum and 100,000 spindles, and should be met by a sub-regional plant located in Kenya.

The demand for sewing machines will aoo~t to about 100,000 units per annum, and should be manufactured in two factories employing about 500 people, one in Kenya and the otber an expansion of the existing plant in Rhodesia.

33. ~he group, macbinery for special indus tries, (718) is the largest machinery "TOUp '"i th a c ernan d expected to exceed 100,000 tons per annum in 1980. It Lnc Ludo s more specialized items such as paper making machinery and glass 1'wrking machinery, but 1t also includes maohinery generally r-equi r ec, In the sHo-I'egion for milling and food. processing,

re~uired is estimate~at 20 per cent 60 per cent 5 to 10 per cent

food processing

sx cava tors for mining and road making min eral crushing

I t :'13 suggested that present capacity in milling and food processing in Kenya, ,Rhodesia and Tanzania could be expanded. anJ. two n ev factories of 4,000 to 5,000 tons per annum capacity erected in Kenya and Rhodesia.

For excavators, four new tactcrles Et::ce pr:;p'.J'::ed, each wi th an annual capacity of 5,000 to 6,000 tons and located in Tanzania, Zambia,

Rhodesia and Kenya. A sub-regional plant for the milllufacture of stone and mineral crushing equipment with a capacity of 6 -10 ,000 tons should be located in Uganda,

E/cN.14lrNR/9 C

34. The mar-k et for ",nchinc"'y and app.liar.c e s (719) will also exceed 100,000 tons per annurn , an d will i,"(;ludo the following· main types of machines,

10 per cent 35 per coot 5 per cent 20 per cent 10 ^{per cent}

Air conditioning machinery Pump s and centrifuge"

Valves' and. similar appliances Lifting and loading machinery

vi

e ighbg na ch in e"

It will be possible to con~truct plants far eacb of these types. For the' manufacture of valves, etc. (from bronze and other copper alloys),

,

- ,

a sub-z-eg Lona^L p Lant j_8 pI'G.t"used wi.~~j;. ^0. ='=lP-~:-;:·.<"J c^f _~,G00 to ^5,000.

tons per _.annum~ c:-l1d located. .in Zambi.F.'. POT 'li[:ht pumps, f oui- or (ive plants with 2,000 to 3,000 tons capaci ty and form",diU:in pumps f'ouz- or five of 3-4,000 tons. Tow or threG 'planto'of 3,000 to 4,000 tons annua - capacI ty ',~ould meet requ' r emen ts for 1/eiGhing machines , and three or four of 4,000 to 5,000 tons could provide winches and hoistinG equipment. 'These plants would 'be located llC 4;~,e p:cinoipal consuming courtrles, i.e., Kenya, Rhodesia, Zambia. Air conditioning machinery could :)6 installed by con s truotLc.na l engineers in most oountries.

35· The th i.r d -G.:t-·t2.sio,n of e;n.g-inee..l.-'ing good a JeTl;;;urn;tton con a.i sts of tr-an.aport equipment. The d emand for railway rolling stock (721) will amour.^'0 to ,between 55,000 and '10.,000 tons by 1980, and. about half of this will consist of freight cars. It would be economic to meet this

Q"'L""~ by constructing two factories, each wi th a capacity of 1,000 c.ir . ;,er annum of 15 tons average weight. These factories should be^<

located in Rhodesia and Kenya. They could be Duppiieci with plate, ei ther imported or from the proposed steel 1'TOT'ks and 11ith uheels and

axles from a factory of 8-10,000 tons annual capacity which would also supply replacements. 'I'he factory 1'IQuld be attacbedto the steel "arks, probably in Rhodesia.

E/CNol4l D R! 90 p;:,ge ;'6

36. Read. vehicles form the largest· single item in engineering demand and by 1980 will 'amount to about 320;000 tons . . The distribution according to types is estimated to be as follows'

40 to 50 per cent passenger cars 10 to

15

^{per cen't buses}

10 to 15 per cent replacemen t parts

20 to 40 per cent light comaercial vehicles and lorries

'The demand for passenger cars will amount to .between 120,000 and 150,000 units annually, of which it would be reasonable to manufacture half 10~ally. This denan d is sufficient to sustain orre sub-regd.ona L factory which would assemble the cars ~ including light .commercial vehicles - and _m~ufacture the main components i.e. engines (cast from aluminium alloys) .and bodies (pressed from sheet steel). Since

aluminium is al,ready being cast in Tanzania and a sheet steel mill is proposed this would appeaz to be a sui table Loca^ti cn., Some of the components e.g. wheels, sprangs , starters, reflectcrs, .shouLd, be produced in s~ecializedplants, and other specialized plants with an annual capacity of between 2-3,000 tons .should mm1ufacture accessories_{. . '} such as valves, pivots, axles, etc.) an~ replacement parts for all models 'includircg imported cars. Such plants \<Quld be loca teG. ⁱⁿ the

~ , '

rnain' centres ofconswnption .i ,e. Rhodesia, Kenya, Uganda, Ethiop~a,

Madagascar, Zambia.

37.

Group. 733 with an annual consumption by 1980 of 25,000 tons

consis~s mainly of bicycles - about 60 per cent,and trailers - about 10-15 ]Jer cent.

The. tonnage 'for bicycles is equivalent to ^ill1 annual demand of from 1 to 1 l/2million units and silice it iseconomio to produce on a scale of from 15 to 20,000 units per annum, a number of faotories can be established and in fact one could be established if necessary ⁱⁿ each country.