African household survey capability programme : progress report and examination of analytical requirements

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LIMITED ST/ECA/FSD.

27 November 2/6

1981 Original: ENGLISH

ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR AFRICA

Second session of the Joint Conference of African Planners, Statisticians and Demographers

Addis Ababa. 8-17 Harch 1932

AFRICAN HOUSEHOLD SURVEY CAPABILITY PROGRAMME;

PROGRESS REPORT AND EXAMINATION OF ANALYTICAL REQUIREMENTS

I.

II.

III.

IV.

V.

VI.

VII.

VIII IX.

X.

XI.

XII.

XIII

CONTENTS

Paragraph

INTRODUCTION ... !~6

1979 WCRKIiJG GPGUP 7 ~8

1SS1 WORKING GROUP . . . 9-10

19S1 SEMINAR. • •• 11-13

COUNTPY PROJECTS. 14

ADVISORY riSSICHS UNDERTAKEN III

C0NtJE2:i CF UITH AHSCP 15

CONSUITATICNS, WITT DCNCP.S 16-21

EXPERT GRCUF KEETIilG 22

PROCEDURES FOR ENROLLING IN NESCP 23-26

ANALYTICAL FEQUIREFENTS 27-31

0ATA t/SE - • ■ 32-34

POLICY ISSUES 35

CONCLUSION ■■ • • • 36-37

Page 1-3 3 3-5

6

7"8

8-9 9 10-11 11-13 13-14 14-15 15

I. INTRODUCTION

1. This paper is in two parts. The first part gives a summary of

activities in connexion with the initiation and implementation of the African Household Survey Capability Programme and the technical,

administrative and financial problems so far encountered. The second part focusses on the framework for the inter!in'kinr and analysis of results from the different survey rounds which constitute each national

household survey programme.

2. It may be recalled that the African Household Survey Capability Frograr-tae (AKSCP) was conceived as a logical sequel to the African

Census Programme under which about twenty African countries were assisted by the United Nations to carry out their population censuses. The

Conference ojf, African Statisticians at its eighth session in 1973, taking

note of; the statistical infrastructures established /by the African Census

Programme ariU^he interest shown in household surveys as manifested in the lar^e number' of ad^ hoc surveys being carried out in the region,

recommended'that the technical and practical aspects of a household survey programme be investigated' by ECA. In this connexion a Working Group was convened in September 1974 . the forking Group discussed

inter alia the basic subject fields for household surveys, the essential

requirements for the development ofr a permanent field survey organizations

survey methodology and the1 co-ordination of household surveys.

3. At its third meeting in September 1975 the ECA Conference of

Ministers accorded a high priority to multi-purpose household surveys

for the collection of integrated demographic» social and economic data.

The programme received further support^at .the. ninth and tenth sessions

of the Conference of African Statisticians held in October 1975 and 1977 respectively. .The United Rations,,Statistical Commission at its

nineteenth session also strongly■■! endorsed, the; proposals for a household

survey capability programme in the African:region, the value of adapting this programme t gj meet : the; needs;;.of the other developing ; regions s and

the need to mot ilize j supp ort -> f or this ; tnaj or technical assistance activity.

Finally, the ECCSOC resolution 2055V(LXII) Of May 1977 and a further

resolutions 1979/5 ,-o*vS". May 1S7S- drew, the attention of developing

countries to the Kational household;Survey Capability Programme (HHSCP) in the development of statistical infrastructures to secure integrated statistics needed for social and economic development planning and national policy making. The latter resolution, inter alia, requested the Secretary-General of the United Nations, in close co-operation with the regional commissions, the specialized agencies, the United Nations

Development Programme, the World Eank and other multilateral and bilateral

agenciesj to co-ordinate household survey technical co-operation

activities, including the ongoing African Household Survey Capability Programme and Inter-Anerican Household Survey Programmes within the

context of the national Household Survey Capability Programme and strongly urges all donor agencies bo collaborate fully^and to ensure that the

survey activities they .may promote will be compatible with and contribute to the programme." , : .

ST/ECA/PSE.2/6

Page 2

4. In pursuance of the objectives of the AHSCP, its regional component

was set up in the Statistics Division of the EGA in July 1978 with the

financial assistance of UNDP. The project document covering this financial assistance irade provision for two Household Survey experts.

As laid down in the project document the ECA regional component of AESCP

was expected to carty out the following functions:

(a) assist in the strengthening of permanent survey organizations

in countries where these exist in one form or other;

(b) help in the establishment of permanent field organizations in

countries which have completed their population censuses and

thus have the basic statistical infrastructures for the

setting up of a survey capability but which have not yet

established permanent field organizations^ . - ' . .

(c) assist in the development of core questionnaires which will

. serve as the integrating factor for data collected from the

different rounds and special illustrative questionnaires

covering subjects such as income, consumption and expenditure, employment;, healthr and demographic characteristics for

selected countries. These questionnaires will be widely

disseminated as prototypes but not as model questionnaires

to be followed without adaptation;

(d) help in the preparation of corresponding tabulation and publication programmes together with an examination of the

appropriate concepts, definitions and classifications;

(e) render advisory services in survey organization, design, quality control, data processing, data analysis and report

preparation and dissemination. . ,. . .

The professional staff of the regional component of AHSCP consists of

two household survey specialists, an ILO household specialist, art FAO

regional statistician who is attached to it on a part-time basis. The Director and Deputy Director of the ECA Statistics Division provide substantial administrative and technical support to the programme.

Arrangements have been made with the Government of the Federal Republic of Germany for the services of a data processing adviser under the AESCP.

A request has also been sent to a bilateral donor for the services of a second data processing adviser but the outcome is still uncertain.

5. As a result of the interest generated by the AHSCP, the decision taken by the UN Statistical Commission and ECOSOC resolution 1979/5

of £ May 1979 a Central Co-ordinating Unit (CCU) of NilSCP vas established in New York, in the Statistical Office with a Programme Co-ordinator in 1?79. The Co-ordinator of NHSCP reports to the Director of the United Nations Statistical fffice who is responsible for the overall development management and co-ordination of the NESCP, workinp in close collaboration with the statistical divisions of the regional commissions and the

interested specialized agencies. the Director of the Statistical Office

reports-to the Under-Secretary-General of the Department of Technical

Co-operation and Development on the NFSCP.

ST/ECA/PSB.2/6 Pase 3

6. In June 1979 a consultative meeting on the HlSCP was "'convened in

3ev7 York. The participants at this meeting were representatives of selected countries expected to participate in the NKSCP, prospective donors and specialized agencies of the United Nations. The aim of the meeting was to disseminate information on the 1JIISCP and to. enlist the

support of donors.

II. 197? WORKING CPOUP

7 . Asa follow-up to the 1?74 UbrKii>n Group or. Crpanizat ion, Content and Methodology of household Surveys, another meeting was convened in

ictober 1979 attended by 22 experts' frop African countries and

representatives of F£C, UNICEF, TTFS s UN Statistical Office and observers from USA and France. The XCorking Group revievjed household survey t'ata requirements under the following subject • fields

(a) Core items

(t) Demographic characteristics

(c) household in cope, consumption and expenditure

(d) Labour force, employment s unemployment and under-employment (e) Conditions of health/ nutrition, housing 3 water supply,

education, literacy and access to related services (f) Food consumption

(g) Household enterprises.

The Forking Group also discussed; the essential requirements of the HKSCP9 some common sampling schenes, their advantages and disadvantages;

survey programming■ cat a processing, evaluation and analysis, reporting s publication and dissemination; and ".training;., of ^survey personnel.

Si'-' Finally the YJbrkirip' Croup recommended a work prog ramrae for the regional component of the M'ECP, the two nain elerents of which vere:

(a) Advisory services in the planninp and conduct of integrated national household survey programmes., in collaboration v/ith the UN Statistical Office . ■

and (b) Development of nethodology for the continuing collection, processing ant- analysis1 of integrated economic social and '''' ; demographic statistics from households;, in 'collabor at ion with

: the tftr Etati'sti-cal Office a:nd' 'UN' specialized agencies.

: ■■■■'■ ■ ; III.1 19 31 ■'■ttOEKIHG GROUP

9. The 1961 Uorking, Group on Organization -, Content and Hethodology of Household Surveys discussed, inter alia the following:

(a.) T'evelopmeut, of. Integrated ProgramCie.s of Surveys:

General, Technical and -Organizational Problems (t) Food product ion/agricultural surveys

(c) Labour force surveys

ST/ECA/PSr ,.?/G

Paf*e 4

(d) Incore-expenditure surveys (e) Survey desigrs

(f ) Non-sanpling errors .

(g) Analysis of survey data

(h) Technical and financial assistance ■ ■■' ■ 10. At the end of the raeetinp. the Group recommended the following work programme for the regional component.

" C.a) Project proposals formulation missions

It is expected that by the end of 1983 » 14 additional African countries would be enrolled in the AHSCP . Thus,- in collaboration with the United Nations Statistical Office and specialized agencies, project proposals will be formulated for the mobilization of

technical and financial assistance in respect of these countries.

(b) Technical advisory and review missions

(i) Technical advice in the fields of survey organization s sampling ,' data processing , data analysis and data

utilization will be provided to African countries

which have or are intending to establish active survey operations.

(ii) EevieWj documentation and dissemination of country experiences.

(c) Development of methodology

The development of methodology for the collection, processing, analysis and utilisation of integrated demographic., social and

economic data already began will be continued. This will take into account technical studies being undertaken by the United

Nations Statistical Office and United Nations specialized agencies- Specifically the follovTinp will be done;

(i) Preparation of guidelines for the measurement of 'employment under-employment and unemployment after

testing technical plans for labour force surveys.

(ii) Development of technical plans for income;, consumption

and expenditure surveys. takin'p into account the special conditions of Africa;

(iii) Examination of technical problems associated, with agricultural surveys;

(iv) Pevelopment of guide line s on rep ort uritin;* and

dissemination of data?

ST/ECA/PSD.2/6 Page 5

(v) Examination of sampling problems relating to

construction of sampling frames and master samples for integrated surveys and preparation of relevant guideline s °s

(vi) Continued development of illustrative questionnaires 3

adaptation of concepts, definitions and classifications and preparation of relevant illustrative tabulation

programme s;

(vii) Development of household data analysis. The work will

be concerned with the analysis of data from individual subject-fields for which no suitable or comprehensive guidelines are available and the examination of the inter-relationship of core and main subjects-field variables. It will take into account data made

available from the new surveys;

(vili) Development or adaptation of data processing procedures

for the support of the survey programme, including the formulation of appropriate guidelines for data base

activities involving survey data. This work may involve

■■■■. the development and adaptation of software packages.

(d) Training

The briefing of survey directors at the biennial working

groups will be included here for convenience. Thus training activities will comprise: ■ , .• .

(i) Uorking Group on Organization, Content and Methodology of HouseholdLSurVeys (19R3)s to which survey directors will be invited in their individual capacities. Funding for this meeting has not yet been assured;

(ii) Training of survey personnel of all levels in collabora

tion with the Statistical Training Programme for

Africa (STPA), This will involve the organization of

training workshops at STPA centres. This will be done in collaboration with the United Nations Statistical

Office;, the United Nations specialized agencies, the

associate centres of STPA and multilateral as well as bilateral donors;

(iii) Inclusion of survey techniques in training at under

graduate anc* similar levels;

(iv) In-service training at national level;

(v) Assistance in the organization of exchange visits.

(e) Co-ordination of multilateral and bilateral assistance to

countries

In collaboration with the Central Co-ordinating Unit (CCU) of the .United Nations Statistical Office anc1 the United Nations

specialized agencies, the regional team will assist in the

mobilization of technical and financial resources for the

implementation of national programmes."

ST/ECA/PSD.2/6 Page 6

IV. 1931 SEMINAR

11. As a result Of discussions in Bonn with the Director of the ECA Statistics Division, the Government of the Federal Republic of Germany

agreed to sponsor a seminar on household surveys at Addis Ababa,

similar to the one held for the ESCAP countries in 1979. This seminar

was convened in Addis Ababa from 21-30 September 1981. The seminar discussed inter alia

(a) Demographic surveys in the African region;

Some methodological problems

(b) Time budget surveys

(c) Surveys of household economic activities:

Small scale industries

(d) Technical plans for food consumption and nutrition surveys (e) Technical plans for social surveys

(f) Technical and organizational pre-requisites of integration;

Co-ordination of procedures; integration of agricultural

and non-agricultural surveys; co-ordination of data procedures (s) Problems of survey design

<h) Felationship of household surveys with other- sources

of data

(i) Data processing techniques in relation to the collection,

preparation and storage of household survey data.

12. The Seminar recommended» among other things, that ECA should prepare a document on data processing as far as this relates to the African

Household Survey Capability Programme.. It was considered that data

processing has been a r\aj or bottleneck in publishing survey results early

and that the guidelines which would be provided in this document will go a long way to assist countries in the region to overcome this problem.

13. The meeting also turned its attention to the problems of financial and technical assistance for national projects. It was noted that in view of the economic situation in several of the developed countries the funds anticipated for the implementation of the national projects had not been forthcoming. In view of this it was recommended that whenever possible countries should initiate the programme using their

own resources. Attention was drawn to the fact that three countries at

least had either started or are in the process of starting the programme with funds largely made available by their own governments. In addition countries were urged to explore the possibilities of using UNDP country IPFs to assist in starting projects. The possibility of breaking down the overall programme into specific projects" and attracting assistance to these was also suggested. Finally the United Nations Economic

commission for Africa was asked to explore the possibility of pooling together the financial resources made available from United Nations and United Nations specialized agencies for continuing support to the over

all country programme.

ST/ECA/PSD.2/6 Page 7

V. COUNTRY PROJECTS

14. In document E/CN.1A/SM/31, Progress Report on the African House hold Survey Capability Programme * submitted to the Working Group on Organization, Content and Methodology of Household Survey (Addis Ababa 29 June to 3 July 1981)a a country by country summary of household surveys undertaken in Africa from 1975 is given. Table I summarizes the subject fields covered or intended to be investigated in the period 1975-1988. It should be noted that for those surveys planned under the AHSCPS each survey will penerally have a core questionnaire which, wil;l reflect the integrated approach to data collection. It should also be mentioned that in cases where a survey on a particular subject field

is carried out more than once during the period under consideratiatl this is not reflected in the table. Thus the table shows only the types of surveys carried out without indicating the number of such surveys. It is obvious from this table that the most popular type of surveys are the general demography, fertility, income, consumption and expenditure and labour force surveys. At the other extreme are environmental

surveys which are relatively rare. There is need to mention that the table reflects the information available in ECA and may not always reflect the true situation in the region.

VI. ADVISORY MISSIONS UNDERTAKEN IN CONNEXION WITE AHSCP

15. Table II shows the number and types of advisory missions carried out by the AHSCP team.

Table I. Regional advisory missions undertaken by the African Household Survey Capability Programme Regional Advisory Team by sub-region (1 July 1973-31 December 1981)

Sub-region 1978 1979 I960 1981 Total

North Africa

West Africa 2

Central Africa East andSouthern

Africa 1

4 9 1

4 8 3

3 4 6

11 23 10

TOTAL (Africa) Outside the region

GRAND TOTAL

3

3

15 1

16

23 5 28

18 1

19

59 7

.66

In addition to these missions, several visits were undertaken by the UNSO/ECA/AHSCP staff to the Ethiopian Government Central Statistical Office to advise and assist them on household survey

programme.

In addition to ithes.e missions^ the ECA RASDS Regional Adviser, Mr* E.A. Colecraft, who was stationed -in Lusaka, undertook several visits to the Zambian Government Central Statistical Office to. . . advise on demographic surveys.

3T/.ECA/PSD.2/6 Page 8

8 8

2

10

' 2 8

9 3 Table II. Missions undertaken by the AIISCP Pegional Advisory

Team by purpose and year (1 July 1978-31 March 19S1)

Purpose 1978 1979 1930 1981 Total

Erelirilnary . 1 2.

investigations

Project Proposals ■ ■

Formulation Missions . ■ ; 2 ■ C ,.

Advisory Missions „ '. 1 V 8 ' 11

Assistance in Preparing ■-: ; ■■•....

.Specif ic Pro ject Documents 3.4 -,

Evaluation' " ' ' . 2 1 '.'■/' \ .

Miscellaneous, >(Technical - - :

Meetings and Visit:-s to ., ■ .. ■: ■_■■■ ■=■■ .'

Donors, etc.) '■.■■-. . ■•■!■ ' ■ ■ -. 5. 1 .7

GRAND TOTAL 3 16 28 19 66

VII. CONSULTATIONS WITH DONORS

16. As a follow-up to the meeting with donors held in June 1979 and the informal circulation of some project proposals to certain donors , a joint UHSO/ECA mission to Europe was organized from 17 to 31 October

1980. The mission comprised; "Hr.'S'.A. Goldberg, Co-ordinator of the

NHSCP, Mr. B. Davies, United Nations Consultant and Mr. IT. L. Booker.

Director of the ECA Statistics Division. The mission's main objective was to .brief the donors on the up-to-date situation regarding the

development of the NESCP and to hear the initial reaction of these donors with respect to some, specific^ country project proposals. . The donors were briefed on the background to NESCP in ECOSOC resolutions and its nature as a joint effort of the United Nations family, national and international data and analytical requirements to be fulfilled by the programme and essential features of the NHSCP. A progress report was also given on the formulation of viable national project proposals in accordance with the original targets.

17. The tour covered Geneva (IL09 ECE and WHO); Brussels (EEC, the Belgian Administration for Development Co-operation, and the Belgian

Statistical Office) Stockholm (SIDA and the Swedish Central Bureau of

Statistics), Bonn (Development Aid Statistics, Hultilateral Aid, the

Munich Centre, imd the Federal Statistical Office) and the Hague (the

Central Bureau of Statistics, and Ministry of Foreign Affairs).

18. The mission was considered successful by the mission members.

As a result af the visits- a number of: recOmmendatdo.Rs were made to individual countries- on■ \t-"he means of mobilizing resources for their survey programmes.^ -

ST/IiiCA/PSiy .2/6 Page 9

19. The general conclusion reached at the end of the mission was that

donor countries are willing to help but governments should first accord

high priority to such projects when requesting assistance. It was also

noteo that delays in securing assistance are being caused by incomplete exchange of information between participating countries, NHSCP and

prospective donors. Action taken during the mission should help considerably in alleviating the second of these problems.

20. In September 19C1, another round of consultations with donors was

undertaken by the same mission members. This time the tour covered Brussels (EEC and Administration General p our Co-operation et Develop-

pement)s Bonn (Ministry of Economic Co-operation) Geneva (I;L0 andr'WHO) ,.

Vienna (Federal Ministry of Foreign Affairs). Rome (FAO and Department

for Development Co-operation, Ministry of Foreign Affairs)3 Paris

(UNESCO, INSEE and Ministry of Co-operation) and London (Commonwealth

Secretariat and Overseas Development Adninistration).

21. The mission was generally considered successful in achieving its

primary objective of clarifying certain issues and obtaining the active

support for the programme from the EEC and several Governments. It was also encouraging that the representatives of the donor agencies and specialized agencies expressed keen interest to attend the NhSCP

Consultative Meeting of donors and others which is being planned to take place in Geneva in June.1982. As a result of the discussions held with

donors, specific actions have been recommended to be taken by several African Governments to secure all or part of the external financial and

technical resources needed for the implementation of country projects.

CCU and ECA are following-up on the suggested lines of action with UNDP Resident Representatives and directors of national statistical

offices. .

VIII. EXPERT GROUP MEETING

22. In pursuance of the objectives of the National Household Survey

Capability Programme a technical meeting of the NPSCP was held in

New York from 20 to 24 April 19C1. The main purpose of the meeting was

to revievi draft documents commissioned by the Statistical Office in

connexion with the NHSCP. These documents relate to non-sampling errors in household surveyss training requirements for a national household surveys programme^ development of an integrated programme of household surveys: a review of major issues* and data processing for. continuing

household surveys in developing countries. It is expected that these documents will provide preliminary technical material for strengthening the operations of the NHSCP but continuing methodological research will be required. It should re noted that work on new survey methodology ;.

already involves a number of agencies and includes the Living Standards

1'easurenent Study of the World Bank.

SI/fcCA/PSD.2/6 Page ID

-,. ; . IX. PROCEDURES FOP ENROL LI WC IN NESCP

23. The following are the procedural steps in establishing a national

draft project documents :

(i) Any African country wishing to enrol in the AHSCP should ask for a'joint UNSO/ECA mission either through the UNDP office in the country or directly through the Director Statistics Division, UNECA, P.O. Box 3001, Addis Ababa,

Ethiop ia.

(ii) A joint UNSO/ECA 'mission wouidl then be sent to the country

at a convenient time to be arranged among all parties.

(iii) A draft project proposal will usually be formulated by the

country with the assistance of the ECA Statistics Division and the Central Co-ordinating Unit (CCU) for the National :

Household Survey Capability Programme (NHSCP) in the United

Nations Statistical Office.

(iv) On the basis of comments received from all three parties

the project proposal will.be revised and Government agreement

to the proposals will besecured.

(v) CCU will then approach potential donpr(s) Informally.

(vi) When firm donors:h£ve: been identified^ ECA will assist the national statistical office to. prepare . the relevant project document(s) in the appropriate format (s)'< '. UNDP Resident

Representatives will be involved at all stages of the procedure.

(vii) The project document(s) will then be formally submitted to _, the donor.(s) through the appropriate channels.

In the case of projects with only one donor, United Nations (CCU and regional commission) will ask to be kept informed and will indicate availability to participate in preparation of project if so invited.

If there is more than one donor, preparation of project document(s) can best be done locally; usually under the chairmanship of the UNDP Resident Representative with United Nations (regional commission and CCU) participation.

24. In terms of these procedures the following countries have enrolled in the AESCP : Botswana, Eenin., Cameroon, Congos Ethiopia, Kenya,

Lesotho, Mali, 1'orocco, Senegal and Sudan.

25. Although the preparation of national projects have been proceeding

on target and there is a greater than expected number of new requests

to join NHSCP, projects are becoming operational more slowly than

anticipated. There are several reasons for this including the fact

that communications and procedural arrangements for securing assistance

are more complex than was thought, and the fact that the present

ST/ECA/PSB.2/6 Page 11

difficult economic situation affects adversely the availability qf funds for new projects. In this situation stronger efforts need' to.

be made to raise the priority accorded statistics, .by recipient .as .veil

as donor countries. Another reason, already mentioned in paragraph 19, is inadequate coninunicatioc in applying the procedures outlined above.

26= For projects which are still being operated on a somewhat ad hoc basis the main bottleneck seems to be data p ro<ie ssing . A number,of countries have collected data but have not been a^le to .process,, theni because of the absence of necessary data processing expertise.. To solve this serious problem, EGA has.requested.assistance.in the financing of two posts of regional advisers in i^ata processing from bilateral sources. Formal project requests have been submitted and

a positive response has been received from the Government of the Federal Pepublic of Germany as stated in paragraph 4. Other problems relate to training of counterpart staff ant1 the frequent turn over of staff in African statistical offices.. It; ,is expected that the Statistical Training Programme for Africa (S£PA) will result in the training of adequate statistical personnel of all grades to help in meeting the

last problem. : .-.,.. r ..,-.

X. ANALYTICAL , REQUIREMENTS ' . */; ..

27. The two working groups and the seminar convened under the African Household.Survey Capability Programme dealt with the subject of survey

data analysis. In the following sections a short examination of the.

analytical requirements of the AF.SCP will be attempted, including a

brief consideration of some of the tools available for survey data analysis and a few related critical policy issues,

20. The last seminar convened from 21-30 September 1981 examined some of the analytical tools available for the exploration of data structure . The specific tools discussed included the following:

(a) descriptive statistics (means, modes, medians, distributions, graphss indices; etc.)

(t) r x c contingency tables

(c) cluster analysis; including concepts such as taxonomic distance

(d) time series and. spectral analysis for data generated over long periods such as 15-20 ye,ar s ■,.■ -t. .

(e) taodel building including simp le and. multiple regression, path analysis and the more complieated models of the Eachue type. 1/

17 Rodgerss Gerry; Hopkins Mike: an£ K£ry -, Rene; Bachue B Philippines Population^ employment and inequality. ILO 1973

ST/ECA/PSD.2/6 Page 12

29. It is generally recognized that analytical tools of this nature are usually easy to apply to a single uni- or raulti-subject survey.

The problem is how to apply this approach to a time series of household

survey data, e^ch survey round covering in addition to the core items, different subject-matters. A number of suggestions have been made' to achieve the .-.Objective of meaningful analysis in the context of the AHSCP.

The first involves the use of the longitudinal survey. This implies

retaining the jsaire sample in the survey programme for two or more rounds.

The second approach.is to use rotation samples where part of the sample is replaced after each roiyac1 . The Household Survey Programme assumes that generally there would be a sample of maximum size of 15^000 house holds. Therefore with partial replacement of the sample so that the sample is completely renewed in four rounds > it should be noted that

only a maximum of 3750 households will be retained from the beginning'

of the sample up to the tine of the complete renewal. The figure in some countries could be much less due to losses arising from deaths, migration, omissions and refusals. The limitation of this sample size

for some of the detailed analysis expected under the programme is one of the reasons cited by some African countries for not supporting the idea of rotation sataplinp. There are however two main objections to the use of the longitudinal survey approach. The first is the burden on individual households as a result of repeated visits to the same household. The second is the conditioning effect of asking the same questions of the same household in repeated surveys.

30. Another approach to the problem of the analysis of integrated

household data from different survey rounds is to use the core items as the integrating factor. It nay be recalled that in document

E/CN.14/SM/22 the following core items were suggested: .'.

(a) Community-level variables

Main source of and distance from water supply Distance to and nature of nearest health facility Availability of primary school in locality

Distance fror regional capital

Availability of police post in locality Availability of post office in locality distance from nearest market

Availability of community centre Availability of village radio

Availability of agricultural co-operative/farmer{s association Distance from nearest motor road

Cropping pattern or main ecological characteristics (b) Household as a unit

Number of households sharing housing unit Number of rooms occupied

Persons per room ratio (derived) Size of household (derived)

Total income from farming, employment, trading and

other sources ■•■■■■-. u

Numbers and distances of agricultural holdings owned- or

operated

Ownership of productive assets.

ST/ECA/PSD.2/6 Page 13

(c) For each household member and visitor

Name Age Sex

Relationship to head of household Residence status

Birthplace Nationality

School attendance

Highest grade attained Literacy

Activity status Occupation

Industry

Employment status.

31. It should be noted that the above list is a recommendation only and will have to be adapted to suit the priority needs of individual countries. If it is intended to use the core items as the integrating factor, then care should be exercised in the selection of these items so that they can be used as such. By relating the data from subsequent rounds with the core items it is possible to obtain the interrelation ships of individual survey items with the core Items acting as

intermediate variables. The question of how to interlink variables from one survey round with those in other rounds without connecting them with the core Items or using longitudinal or rotational samples neet's further investigation. It should be noted that estimates

derived at national level or at a lower level of disaggregation such as the region or district can be interlinked from different survey

rounds. '

XI. DATA BASE '

32. It should be noted therefore that if the planned analysis involves interlinking data at the household or district level, this should be taken into account when deciding on the sample design. If the core items are to be used as the integrating factor, then the criteria for their selection should be re-examined to ensure that they reflect the highest common factor for integration.

33= It is evident from the foregoing that data obtained from surveys would have to be stored in a way which would make them easy for

retrieval and use. In this connexion it; should be noted that three kinds of data would be stored: micr;o data (referring to data in respect of individual household and, household members), macro data

(referring to the aggregated data) and nteta data (referring to such items as codes and classifications, editing, specifications, etc.).

In a paper by J.C. Veim and E. Sundgren 2/ the following primary data and processing characteristics which will influence requirements for data management facilities are. listed:

Veim, J.C. and Sundgren, E. Data Ease Techniques in Statistical

Fata Processing. Paper presented to the International Statistical

Institute 42nd session. Manila. 197 9.

ST/ECA/PSD.2/6 Page 14

(1) Uniform production structure . , : (2) Long processing times

(3) Mediate role of micro data (4) Large data volumes

(5) Historical data and time series (6) Complex requests

(7) Unforeseen future needs (S) Changing input

(9) Varying response times

(10) Data dictionary. ...

34. It is obvious that data to be generated from the AI1SCP meet all

these conditions and therefore make it necessary fora data base management system to be established. In this connexion it should be noted that three data archives will be needed, pne each for the micro, macro and meta data. It is also necessary., as stated above, that a

data base management system be established as soon as possible to make

it feasible for tti£ interlinking of the results of the different survey rounds. Countries which do not yet have the expertise for the use^of

data base management systems should consult the United Nations or an appropriate external agency for the necessary technical^assistance.

Available Data Ease Management Systems developed -within statistical

services include RAPID "(Statistics .Canada).... A full account of what is available in national statistical, offi.ces, is given by Barrie N.Davies-2/

;

35. The main policyissue rei^tihg, to the analysis of survey data which has to be considered early is how much should the statistical office

get involved with analysis. At the Seminar on Houp^hcld Surveys already referred to this question was discussed at,-length. The conclusion was that statistical offices should necessarily be involved in producer- oriented analysis such as evaluation and methodological research. It was considered that national statistical offices normally have all the

relevant■'■■ information and the'infrastructure to enable them to undertake

such analysis effectively. Outside organizations would have to depend too heavily on the statistical office before they c?.n undertake such research. For consumer-oriented and in-depth analysis the Seminar proposed a compromise. For preliminary analysis involving mainly descriptive statistics and modelled on the lines of tlia first country report of the Vorlcl Fertility Survey^ the task should always be carried out by the statistical office. Cther studies Involving intensive

exploitation of the data base should also be done by the statistical

office solely or in collaboration with outside agencies. The more

detailed in-depth research can be left to outside agencies. In all cases in which the statistical office undertakes analysis collaboration

Davies B Barrie N. Data Base Management jypfp-_ :« wetlosal Statistical Services. Paper presented to the 42nd session of International Statistical Institute. Manila. 1979.

ST/ECA/rS3.2/c Page 15

with relevant users is essential if the results of the analysis are to be used effectively. To enable statistical offices to carry out part or all cf the analysis expected to be undertaken as a result of national household survey programmes, it is necessary for analytical units to be m set up not only to analyse data relating to individual subject fields r but also to study the inter-relationships between the variables covered

in different survey rounds. Experience has shown that where statistical t offices do not make provision for persons who would actually carry out

the analysis, such analysis remains undone. Very little analysis has been done at the country level, for example, on the large volume of data collected and processed in connexion with population and housing censuses.

That is why it is being recommended that when a survey division or a censuses and surveys office is established within the statistical office provision should be made for a unit primarily engaged in analysis. The composition of this unit should not be permanent because of the

changing subject matter of each survey round. However because of

the nature of the analysis involved mainly in the interlinking of results from different survey rounds it is necessary that at least one or two senior professional staff be permanently attached to that unit and should also be involved in the designing and organization of the surveys and in the evaluation of the survey data. There is need for a training programme for the staff of this unit to ensure that they are aware of the sophisticated tools available in this field and that they know how

to apply them in exploring data structures.

XIII. CONCLUSION

3o. In this paper an attempt has been made to report on the progress made in the implementation of the AKSCP since the first session of the Joint Conference. Some of the technical and financial problems

encountered have been highlighted. A plea has been made that in view of the present economic situation in many developed countries, African countries will have to apply the principle of self-reliance if the urgent need for data from the household survey programme is to be met.

37. It may be recalled also that the AI1SCP aims at collecting, processing, analysing and disseminating integrated demographic, social and economic ciata on households and household members. Arrangements under the

programme for collection, processing and dissemination of data appear to be satisfactory. The waak link therefore is in the area of survey data analysis. An attenpt has been trade in this paper to provide a

framework for solving the problem. Countries will have to consider these proposals carefully to ensure that all phases of the AESCP run smoothly and that maximum benefit is derived from the programme for policy

formulation, planning, administration and research.