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',' ' , . . .UNITED NATIONS
ECONOMIC · AND SOCIAL
COU.NCI~..
ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR AFRICA
Working GrOupon'Methodology,Organisation . andConterit of Household Surveys
Addi~ ~baba, 2 - 10 Sep~ember 1914
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AFRICAN HOUS~~OLD SURVEYS PROGRAMME Draft Proposal for Evolving a Post Cerililus Programme of Integrated Demographic, Social and Related E6onomi6 S1;atistics through
Household Surveys CONTENTS
Ba ckg;rOli.nd and supporting i.nforma tion . Objectives of the programme
Work plan
Programme budge t .
Note: This paper is of.a t!3ntative nature and
,will b'e revised in the light of the
Working Group IS recommendations •
Distr.
LIMITED
E/CN .14/SM/15. .'
... 18··· Julie 1"974" :-,. .:', .
Original:' ENGLISH.·
Paragraphs 1 -
24
·25 - 32 33 - 41 46 ~. 49
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E/CN.14/SM/15 Page 2
BACKGROUND AND SUPPORTING INFORMATION 'Justification for the projeot
1. Information about the household seotors of Afrioan countries is still one
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#of the major gaps in the statistics of the region and sessions of the Conference • of Afrioan Statisticians have repeatedly requested assistanoe in the organisa- tion of surveys ;0 remedy the defeot.
2. Both the International and African strategies for the Seoond United Nations Development Deoade involve a unified approaoh to eoonomic and socialdev'elopment in whioh the i:nprovement of human well-being is one of. the basic objectives.
There is therefore a need for more oomprehensive and oontinuing information on households.
3. The UNFPA finanoed Afrioan Census Programme is already making a significant oontribution to better information on the population of Afrioa and some of its essential oharaoteristios. The present proposal to develop more comprehensive and oontinuing household inquiries is a logioal sequel to this work in that it will provide the means of interpreting and using basio demographio data more effeotively in the light of eoonomio and sooial oondi tions. However there is no intention of enoouraging countries to embark on extensive survey programmes before they have oompleted their population oensuses.
4. There was a signifioant amount of household survey aotivity in Africa during the period immediately before and. after independenoe, but it largely ended by 1970
.!I.
Renewed efforts to develop surveys are now evident,particularly in oountries whioh have carried out population and agrioultural censuses.
5.
Earlier Afrioan surveys were usually ad hoo eoonomio or demographicinquiries whioh did not form parts of integrated programmes of data oolleotion and analysis. A different approaoh is· now required to enable full acoount to be taken of the inter-relationships between demographio, sooial and eoonomic
factors~ DeInogr~phic oharacteristics and trends are strongly influenced by the economio and sooial environment and, oonversely, have a signifioant effetjt on the product:i.it,3 capa oi ty and living conditions of popula tions.
60 In the Afr:i.oan situation, many of the relevant data can be oollected only directly from households. There is therefore an urgent need for a programme which .-rill assist Afrioan oountries to collect and utilise information from this source in a fully integrated and oontinuing manner. The costs incurred by individua~. cow.tries in maintaining survey organisations after an initial period of £lssio ~an(;e will n~~j be excessive, particularly l"hen it is borne in mind tha t the::1e o::ogal;.isa tions will also be used for the collection of
industrial, price and other data.
7.
It should also be noted that the draft World Population Plan of Action,.E/CN.9/292~ calls for demographic and multi-purpose surveys to supplement oensus operations. The seventeenth sessions of the Statistical and Population Commissions further stressed the importance of data obtainable from surveys.
y
Househ-:lld Economic Surveys_in Africa, E/CN.14/NAC/53.Methodol~of Demographic Sample Surveys, Series M, No. 51.
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Page 3 8. An EGA inquiry in August 1973 indicated that some ten African countrie's could benefit from early assistance in respect of household surveys. The number will increase to around 30 when current pupulation, agricUltural and industria.l censuses have been completed.. It wQulcltherefore be wise to
establish a. programme cf assistance as soon. as possible, so.that the initiation ()f individual country projects can be spread faLcly evenly in time.
9. In the light of the foregoing conriderations a pr.eJiminary draft of the present project request was submitted liO the eighth sesf...ion of the Conference of African Statisticians in November 1973. The Conference strongly supported the proposal and gave d ttention to waJs in which the. programme could be
developed. Among the points agreed as a basis for immediate action were the followingl
(1) Implementation of ~he programme will involve the establishment of continuing field organioations for the conduct of household surveys. Such organisations will normally be functionally centralised but will be available for investigations in a variety of subject fields. They are essential for satisfactory statistical development and will also be useful for future population censuses.
(2) It wj.ll require an ov€::-all SUbject-matter plan of topics to be investigated over a period of years. This should develop as a cyclical series of inquiries and 1Till ensure that no parti.cular survey i·s overloaded.
(3) The economics of survey taking have to be borne in mind. Sampling errors are dependent on absolute sample size, which means that surveys are relatively more expensive for smaller countries. This could
provide an opportunity for collaboration between countries. '
(4) The quesUon of where and when to begin work on the programme will depend on l.l1diyidual circumstances and care should be taken not to divert resources from other important pro.jects,
(5) As households are the na tural source of a wide variety of demographio,
sooia-~ and ec.::>nomic information, the proposed programme should be of interest to a num1o:c of do{~or agencies and. countries. Collaborative financial arrangements have therefore to be, envisaged • .
(6) A working Group on MethoQology, Organisation and Content of Household Surveys should be convened in 1974 to examine the pre-
:'·8'll.~; s~tes of the p::,ogramme. It was slg.gested that the International
Association of Survey Statisticians sho .... ld be invited to participate in the meeting~ togeth~r with African experts and subject-matter specialists.
10. 'The Uorking Group met at Addis Ababa from 2 to 10 September 1974. Its report is available in document E!CN.l4! ••••••• and its recommendations are embodied in this programme proposal.
E/CN.14/SM/15 Page 4
Institutional framework
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11. The project will involve utilisation of governmental, sub-regional, regional, international a'nd bilateral" institutional frameworks which ,already exist ..
Flexible arrangements are envisaged with the object of ensuring that donor agencies and countries can participate in accordance with their normal working procedures, but with 'strong support from centralised consultative and regional advisory services • .
12. It follows from the remarks in the first part of the proposal that the essential requirement is to develop ongoing household survey capabilities in African countries. In most oases this will involve expansion of the data-
collection activities of the central statistical service in the form of a permanent field survey organisation. As already noted, such organisations are likely to be concerned with the collectj.on of industrial, price and other data in addition'to that from households. It is expec~ed that all operations can be carried out withj.n the terms of existing ,statistical laws of individual
countries.
13.
The Conferences of African Statisticians and Demographers will serve as the principal consultative bodies to guide and review the progress of the programme taking into account the r,ecommendations of the Statistical and Population Commissions of the United Nations.14. In the ~CA secretariat, it is proposed that statistical assistance given to African countries through the regional component of the project should be specified in the official work p~ogramme of the Statistics Division.
Similarly, demographic assistance will be the'responsibility of the Population Programme Centre. To ensure proper oo-ordination between these two units and with the African Census Programme, an African Household Surveys Programme Steering Committee has already been established.
15. For indi~dual country projects which receive assistance from the United Nations, arrangements for ,experts, equipment, etc. will be organised by the UN Statistical Office, Population Division and the Office of Technical Co- , operation through the normal machinery. Any assistance provided on ,a bilateral basis will be co-ordinated at the regio~lal level with the donor countri,es
concerned.
Provision for governmen!~~w-up
16. As the basic aim of the project is to establish continuing programmes of household ,surveys - and therefore permanent field organisations - it is felt
that participating governments should be called upon to give reasonable assuranoes regarding the continuation of survey activity when the init~al period of
assistance has been completed. Such assurances would take the form of the establisbment of permanent posts for field survey operations and continuing budgetary provision for surveys, p~eferably within the context of long-term
programmes of statistical development.
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Other related activities
17g There are a numbBr of other-related activities with which the proposed programme for developing household surveys will need to be closely co-ordinated.
18. The first of these is the African Census Programme~ Success of this project is in many respects regarded as a pre-requ::'site for the effective establishment of a follow-up effurt to develop houserold surveys. In general~ countries will not be encouraged to begin household s~rveys until they have completed their population censuses. Co-ordination will be effected through the Steering Committee mentioned above.
19. A number of African countries will participate in the Uorld Fertility Suryey and. an effort mus t be made to ensure tha t these inquiries are rela ted as closely as possible to the scheme fo:t' c011ec bing and. utilising integrated data from households. This can be donG through the careful prQgramming of nat,\onal survey operations and there is also the possibility of using common first and second stage sampling frames.
20. Some assistance is given to African surveys by the Governments of France and the United Kingdcm and it is also necessary to take into aooount relevant a ctivi ties of USAID, IBRD, SID! and CrDA. I t is hoped tha t some of these
countries and agenoies. will agree to participate more directly in the household
surve~s programme.
21. Although African inter-governmental agencies such as EAC, UDEAC,
o
CAM , COMASTAT (Maghreb) and OAU do not yet have any significant direct interest in household surveys, they should be kept informed of the progress of the "proj~ct and may be able" to give ueeful sUppo~te
Future assistance
22. In the light of African Census Programme experience, it would be
unrealistic to specify ape:r.iod during which the major part of the household surveys pr ogramme should be completed. Like the census programme, it will probably begin with a :U.mited nu.llber of experts and active projects, and then develop as resources and operational o: ?ortunities improve.
23~ After assistance has been given_to a number of countries, organisational and technical experience will begin to accumulate in the region and there will be the prospect of inter-90untry co-operation in survey development. This is another factor which will have a bearing on the total programme period.
24. All that can be said at th<3 present time isthats after survey programmes have "'been established "in participating· countries, there will be a continuing
need for regional aclv:Lsory services to ensure that these programmes are effective.
OBJECTIVES OF THE PROGP~M}lE
Long-range objectives
25. As indicated earlier", this proposal is relat"ed to the strategy of the
Second United N~tionB Development Decade which aims at co-ordinated economic and social development. The long-run outcome of development efforts is reflected in the li1ring conditions of individual household::; which derive from the
effective productive capaci tyof household members. 'llhe latter is i teelf dependent on inter-related demographic, social and economic factors.
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26. The long range objeotive of the projeot is therefore to ensure that
African governments will have adequate information on the household sectors of their countries on a continuing basis to be able to study the improvement of household levels of living.
Immediate objectives
•
27. It follows from earlier comments that the immediate objective is to assist African governments which have not already done so in setting up permanent field survey organisations conoerned primarily with the collection of data from households and in ensuring that these data are analysed in a manner suitable for the planning of development efforts" .
28. The means of establishing permanent field organisations will depend on the oonditions in .individual countries. Where a nucleus of trained field staff already eXists, i t can be expanded fairly quiokly to aohieve national ooygrage.
In other cases i t may be necessary to use ad hoc or mobile- survey operations as a means of training staff before a national organisation beoomes feasible.
Annex I gives a more detailed .examination of the requirements.
29. The substanoe of continuing household survey programmes was considered by the 1972 African Horking Group on Household Sector Statistics. Paragraphs
75 - 11
of its Report,E/CN.14/CAS.8/1,
indicate support for multi-subjeot programmes of surveys on the understanding that not too many topics should be investigated simultaneously.30. The present proposal envisages the colleotion of seven main groups of data whioh are specified in the UN: Handbook of Household Surveys, Series F, No. 10 I
Demographio charaoteristios Heal th
Fbod oonsumption and nutrition Housing conditions and faoilities
Educational oharaoteristics and cultural faoilities Employment
Eoonomic level of the household
31. Existing international recommendations do not deal with the means by which all these topics oan be incorporated in oontinuing mul ti-subjeot pro"grammes of surveys. Some of the essential considerations are examined in Annex II,
together with the additional responsibilities whioh field survey organisations would normally have for the oolleotion of non-household data. It appears feasible to meet all basic data requirements through the organisation of a
five-year repetitive oyole of operations, which would ocoasionally be interrupted by large-scale activities such as population censuses.
Annexes I and II are not attached to this document, but are intended to be revised versions of the two relevant documents for the l.forking Group meeting.
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32. The principal advantage of survey programmes which deal with all these data in an integra,ted manner lies in the resulting abili-fur to analyse the inter-
rela tionships of the various topics. Records of unusual fertili ty, morta.li ty, migration and other characteristics can serve as a basis for policy decisions only if supporting :i.nforma tion is availabl,e
t:o
explain their causes. SiI!lilarly, i t is neces9ar.f to take in to' accoun t demographic and social fac tors hampering eoonomic development.; . ' . -WORK ?LAN Description of pr£gramme activities
Preparatory work
33. 'ilie prac tical aLJ. techr.icalprepara tions already und.ertaken are described earlier in this proposal. The data required in respec tof households and the means by which they can be collected in an integrated and continuing manner have been specified in a way which permits adaptation in the light of national cir- cumstances and priorities.
34.
Comments of the eighth session of the Conference of African Statisticians, the second session of the Conference of African Demographers and the Working' Group on Methodologr , Organisation and Condt1-c t of Household Surveys give every reason to believe tha tthearrangements proposed are consistent wi th the require- ments of African countries and fully feasible • . Implementation of the programme can begin in countries free of population census and other committments, as soon as resources are available.35. financing of the programme is therefore the primary rema~n~ng preparatory consideration. Because of wide subject cover,age, assistance will have to be obtained from a number of sources and the interest of possible donor agencies and countries has to be ascertained.
Prin'cipal programme etc ti vi ties
36Q The principal activities involved in the implementation of the programme are straightforward ~~d consist of assisting individual countries to establish
permanent fiel~ survey organisations and.. ongoj.ngprogrammes of data oollection . along tho lines indicated in this proposal and.Annexes I.and II. 'Ihe intention is to keep any peripheral ac ti vi ties to a minimum.
Supporting ac ti vi ties
37. A number of items -in th.e Hork prograinmes of the UN Statistical Office and ECA have a direct bearing on the household surveys programme. Fbr example, the
system of social and demographic statistics being developed by the Statistical Office will eventually provide a comprehensive framework ~or the collection and analysis of these data, and the defitlitions and classifications of the system can be itnmediately useful as an integrating factor in household surveys. ~e ECA Populatd.onProgramme Cenire is undertakil?-g'workon the plaoe of demographic characteristics and trends in economic and socl.aldevelopment, whioh will lead
to further clarification of African data. requirements. 'lb.e ECA Statistics Division i s develop'ing continuing series for the ~egion in many subject fields
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and this involves rather detailed examination of the statistical relationships between variables, which again provides guidance on worthwhile data collection.
It ~so has a ~pecial interest in household survey methodology in African
countries and intends to modifY its work to provide full support for the house- hold surveys programme. In addition, the African Census Programme has to be regarded as a supporting activit¥ because of its contribution in terms of geo- graphical survey frames and new. expertise in dealing with particular population groups"
Description of inputs
~ssignment of national, ihternation and bilateral staff
38. '!he assignment of national staff to household survey operations is examined in some detail in Annex 10 It should be understood that there are many possible variations on the arrangements proposed, and that countries which do not already have extensive survey experience maY need to build up their field survey
organisa tions gradually. In general, it has to be envisaged that such countries will need financial and material, as well as technical assistance for a period in order to get their work started.
39&
It is proposed that the principal guidance for national household survey projects should be prOvided by a rather strong team of regional advisers, with aSSignment of country experts only where absolutely necessary. However, ~t is appreciated that this question will require further thought in the light of conditions in individual countries, the amount of assistance required and the source from which it is provided"•
40. Stnce cor.sideration of an earlier draft of this proposal by the Conference of African Statisticians, a new factor has come to light. Many of the population censuses scheduled for
1974
will be delaYed and this will affect the rate at which countries Can begin to participate in the household surveys programme. It is therefore no longer realistic to suggest the establishment of a full advisory service at the beginning of the programme; it has to be buil t up gradually as country participation increa,ses.41. It is therefore suggested "that two regional "advisers in sample surveys, one English and one French speaking, should be appointed as soon as possible~ They will be of immediate use in assisting countries with household surveys currently in operation and will provide the means of collaborating with others in drawing up plans for new survey programmes. To be useful, this kind of ~ctivi~ has to begin soon. If started early enough, it would replace the feasibilit¥ mission stage of the African Census Programme, enable work to be started on a more
careful and selective basiS, and lead to a properly phased programme of technical assistance.
420 When it is clear that a number of countries are fully prepared to take part in the programme, additional regional advisers specialising in particular aspects ' of household surveys will be required, eg demographic and social statistios,
economic statistics and data prc)'oessing. At its peak, the advisory service "might consis t of two groups of four experts, English and French speaking. " An addi- "'
tional staff member would probably also be required at UN Headquarters to co-"
ordinate support for the programme.
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Provision for sub-contractual services
E/CN .14/SM/15 Page 9
43. At this stage, no requirements for i,uch services can be forseen, except perhaps in the data processing fieldo I~ haS to be remembered that t~e general aim is to assist cou..."fl tries in developing their own ongoing survey,'capabili ties.
Trainihg provisions
44. 'ilie greater part of the training connec ted wi th the programme will be derived from practical participation in survey activities. Instruction at
national level will be organised by regional advisers as necessary. Information on the technical and organisational progress of survey work will be supplied to the regional statistical and demographic training centres for incorporation in their teaching programmeso
45.
It may be neoessary to organise regional training courses on household survey methodology and the integrated analysis of household survey data.However, it is likely that the experience gained by countries in setting up or improving survey operations will be more valuable than formal training~ In this situation, the exchange of survey experience within the region will be important.
Equipment and supplies
46.
The prOvision of continuing transport facilities for survey operations is examined in Annex 1. If these arrangements are accepted, external support wi th respect to transport would be limited to the provision of a few cross-country vehicles.41. It is not expected that household surveys will require any significant increase in data processing equipment. There are however minor items whioh will need to be taken into account.
PROGRAI{.1l~iE BUDGET
48. This proposal follows the standard UNDP/UN.H'A format project requests and.
should.end with a detailed specification of the costs involved. 'Ihisis
diffioult in a sj.tuation where a number of donor agenoies and countries ma.;r be interested in contributing to the progr~mme and where the timing of ihdi~dual
country projects is not yet known.
49. However, Annex I provi de s an A.S tima te 0 f the average annual co s t 0 f a rather comprehensive field organisation and .suggestions. pave been made above regarding the phased provision of expert services. The addition of assumptions on the years in which some 30 possible reCipient countries will begin to
participate in the programme and the length . of time they will take to develop ongoing national survey organisations leads to the following estimate of costs and financial implications with respect to assistance. It should be under- stood that the figures are intended only to give a preliminary indication of overall costs and that country projects will have to" be budgeted on an
individual basiso
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Advisory services
("
1975
Sample surveys • 12/12 Demograph I c and soc i, al
statistics • Economic statistic$
Data processing.
Supporting itemsr'
.
'UN Hq Statistlc.i,an' Administrative'; , J ,
support, equipment and supplies
36
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PreHmJ~ary est.i,mate,'~f program~e cos,t,
us • ;thousa~ds ~ ~
II' ...
. , OtlO
' i 1976 i' ' 1~7 1978 1979 i980 " 1981 1982 ~983 Total , (l) Z •
2/24 1/6 It6
,<
73 12/24
18,12 /18 18, .2/18' '
,: 1/6'
:-~,;,
1/1i
10'
.:'1 :".:
73 12/24 : I ,- 73 '12j~4
5512 /24 55 2/24. ', 18 ,2/18 '," ;
36 11/12
20
73 2/24"
73 2/24,' 55 2/24' 36 11/12
30
73 12/24 7312/24 73 2/24 73 2/24 36 11/12 "
30
,73 12/24 73 2/24 73 ,2/24 73, 2/24 '36 11/12
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30
'73'bl.~4 ,I
73' 2/24:, 73 21:24 73 2124
36 11/12
30
73 12/24" 73 '.
7311/12:, 1 36 73 1/12, !36
73 2/24 73 36 11/12, :3G
30 ,20
620 474 474 438 252
200
I I I-'
O~'
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~ V1Total (1) • 121;12 ~'14j36 11918n8 257 119/102 340 19/108 358 19/108 358 19/108 J 358 19/108 358 ! 7/84 274 1 ;?,it58
Country projects Total cost durin~ four-
year development period
Total (2) International and
bilateral contribu- tions (1)+1{3(2)
I~at i ona1 contr i but ions
~-ill
Total programme cost (1)+(2)
,2 240,
2 240
'16
160 ' '06,
2 4
480 ,480
2 4 6
• :11
720 960 720
2."
4 6- 6
960 1,440 1,440 720
4 6' 6 6
1,920 2,160 1,440 720
6 6 6 ,6
2,880 2,160 1,440 720
6 6 6
2,880 , 2,160 1,440
G G
2,880
2,160 6 2~880
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;';'
,4,400
;4,800 i7.,200
~7? 200
?,200 ,7,200
6 ~~ ,~
439 1,057 1~860 2,438 2,758
640 1,600 3,040 4,16p.:" 4,800
.- .,.
1,079 2,657 '4,900, 6,5~( 7,558
I"~
, ,
2,518 2,038
,4,320 3,360
'f,,838 , 5,398·,
.
-.
;
, 1,234 I ~4,458
! ' 1,920 I ~4,OOO
,"r
,3,154 13~,458
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Notes: (1) Under advisory services, -the first part of the column for each year shows the number of experts and the total number of man-months served-,
( 2) In the case of country pro jec ts, the firs t part of each column shows the number of participating countries.
Countries are classified in groups according to year of entry to the programm.:>.
(3) No cou.ntry experts have been included in the budget because it is intended that the greater part of the work should be handled by regiona.l advisers in collaboration wi -th national staff.
(4) It is assumed that each country will take four years to build up a national field. survey organisation of the kind
described in Annex I and will do so in equal annual increments. The cost figures given in the annex relate to a comprehensive survey capability which would also deal with the collection of non-household data. An operation
~n this scale would go beyond the resources of smaller countries, so t.he figures in the table should be regarded as a ma.ximum estimate.
(5) The continuing cost to participating countries of maintain- ing survey organisations after their four-year development periods is not shown in the table.
