A critical assessment of social development as reflected in the development plans of selected African countries

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i

UNITED NATIONS

ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR AFRICA

A CRITICAL ASSESSMENT OF SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT AS REFLECTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT PLANS

OF SELECTED AFRICAN COUNTRIES

June 1990

TABLE OF COKTEHTS

ttce

1. Introduction

2. Cameroon

(a) Demographic issues. . (b) Employment

(c) Education (d) Health (e) Youth

(f) Social Welfare. . . -

3- Kenya

(a) Demographic issues. . (b) Employment

(c) Education (d) Health (e) Youth

(f) Social Welfare. . . . 4. Nigeria

(a) Demographic issues. . (b) Employment

(c) Education (d) Health (e) Youth

(f) Social Welfare. . . .

5. Zambia ■

(a) Demographic issues. .

(b) Employment

(c) Education •

(d) Health (e) Youth

(f) Social Welfare. . . 6. Summaries and Conclusions, 7. Recommendations

8. Appendix ■

9. References •

AS RKFLBCTED III THE DEVELOPMEHT PLANS OF SELECTED AFRICAN CODWTRIES

1. Introduction

The last decade has brought most African countries into

critical material shortages and deprivations, crippling foreign

debts, and into a rapid decline in the standard of living and life quality of the vast majority of people. The growth rate of sub-

Saharan Africa's GDP which stood at an impressive 6.4 percent per year during 1965-1973 declined sharply to 3.2 percent during 1973- 1980, and to an all time low of - 1.7 percent per annum in 1984 The growth of the GDP per capita followed the trend as it declined

to - 3.4 percent per year between 1980-1986. Since 1980, it had

fallen by about 16 percent. The external debt for sub-Saharan

countries was estimated to be 256.9 $US billion by the close of the

decade. Other variables that contributed very significantly to this near catastrophe include serious deficiencies in economic and

social infrastructures, domestic and external economic policies and

relations, inadequacies of domestic social development policies and programmes rapid population growth, inappropriate ideological orientations that lead to conflict and civil strive as well as unfavourable climatic conditions and natural disasters that led to millions of displaced persons in search of food and shelter.

Consequently, as countries adopted various structural adjustment measures to cope with this impossible situation important national social objectives became secondary. With an annual population growth rate of 3 percent and a severe drop in food production, the number of the severely hungry children rose from 80 million to over 150 million between the mid 1970s and the end of the 1980s. With the policy of cost sharing as governments struggled to cut back on public spending, investment in education and health was reduced to an all time low and expences were passed onto the consumer. The drop out rate, therefore, increased and children's health once again became a target for diseases preven table by primary health care. Unemployment for women and youth (19- 25 years old) rose as high as 40 percent in some countries.

Juvenile delinquency and crime escalated in the cities as masses migrated in search of inexistent jobs. Poverty and mass deprivation persisted among the rural population, the urban poor, women, the disabled and the young. And poverty stricken families tended to be conflict ridden, dependent upon other families and afflicted with physical and mental illness.

Yet, African countries entered into the decade of the 1980s with definite plans as to how the socio-economic development of the continent was to be steered and how the gains of the 1970s were going to be sustained and built upon. This critical assessment of social development will examine such issues as some demographic problems, employment, education, health, youth and social welfare as reflected in the development plans of Cameroon, Nigeria, Kenya and Zambia in the 1980s.

plans have been guided by the principles underlying her development policy which are "planned liberalism, self-relxant development, social justice and balanced development".1 In this review, only the last two Plans, the Fifth and the Sixth that covered the

periods 1981-1985 and 1986-1991 respectively, will be examined.

The Fifth Plan was elaborated in a spirit of guarded optimism;

the world had just gone through a decade of economic crisis which probably explained, in part, the return to protectionism tendencies, a reduction in international aid and deterioration in terms of trade. Yet, Cameroon had become self sufficient in food while procuring 70 percent of its foreign exchange from agriculture. The per capita income had increased 8.7 times between 1960 and 1980; the health map showed general improvement.

Similarly, during the Fifth Plan there was an average growth rate of 7 percent per annum and an increase in the income per capita of 3.80 percent. However, the agricultural sector was affected by drought and the fluctuation of commodity prices even though food self sufficiency was maintained at 90 percent. Other problems also became aggravated: rapid increase in population, massive migration into the urban areas, high unemployment etc. It was against this background that the Sixth Plan was elaborated. We shall now focus more closely on some of the social development issues as contained

in the two Plans.

(a) Sama DeMociraptiic isstteg.

The population was estimated at 8,657,000 in 1981, the beginning of the Fifth Plan, and was expected to grow at the rate of 2.4 percent to reach 9,783,000 in 1986. In fact it increased at the rate of 3.1 percent and was estimated to be 10,446,000 at the beginning of the Sixth Plan. The Crude Birth Rate (CBR) was 45 per thousand in 1976 and was not expected to change during the Fifth Plan; in the urban areas, it was 50 per thousand. The Crude Death Rate (CDR) was 20.4 per thousand on the average in 1976, 23.9 per thousand in the rural areas and 15.4 per thousand in the urban areas. Life expectancy was 44 years in 1976, 50 in 1981 and 52 in 1986. And the density of the population was 18.6 and 21 people per square kilometer in 1981 and 1986 respectively.

Spatial Distribution and Population structures : The population is characterized by uneven distribution between the urban and the rural areas. While approximately 33.1 percent of the people lived in the urban areas in 1981, by 1986, they had increased to 36.14 percent, an annual increase of 3.04 percent. The rural population on the other hand, rose by 0.78 percent between 1981 and 1986, to make up 73.33 percent of the entire population. Movement into the

\ Ministry of Economic Affairs and Planning, The fifth Five- Year Economic Social and Cultural Development Plan 1981-1986, p.XXVII.

of city dwellers. This phenomenon posed the risk of rural areas being abandoned by the most dynamic element, and thus being condemned to stagnation and possible disintegration of traditional family structures. The rapid rise of the urban population put a strain on the inadequate socio-economic infrastructures giving way

to high unemployment, proliferation of slums and juvenile

delinquency. The 1986 census revealed a predominance of women (50.1 percent) over men (49.9 percent) which was a little more pronounced after age 25 where the proportion of women to men was about 51 percent. The pattern was expected to remain the same throughout the Fifth and the Six Plan and the State was determined to tap the potentials of women more consciously for development

activities.

The proportion of the population under 15 years rose from 42.8 percent in 1981 to 43.3 percent in 1986. The active population represented a little less than 40 percent. During the two Plans, the government made a move towards elaborating a coherent demographic policy that would reflect on the population problems being experienced in the country. A National Commission on Population was appointed to help the government in this direction.

Unfortunately, up to now, the findings of the Commission are yet to be made public. However, activities centered around sensitizing the population on the importance of responsible parenthood through child spacing and relating the size of the family with the resources at one's disposal etc were widely encouraged both in the rural and urban areas during the Sixth Plan. In relation to marital status, the 1976 census had showed that most women (84.3 percent) were married between ages of 15 and 19, as opposed to men at 27, 13.9 percent of them were widows (cf. 2.1 percent widowers) and were likely to be in polygamous marriages as 25.4 percent of the rural men were polygamists. As the situation has not changed much over the years, support services are essential to help women cope with these situations.

(b) flfBpi"yenfc

The policy of employment during the Fifth Plan was to encourage small and medium size industries and institutions in promotion of self reliance; to redistribute revenues between the different social classes; to provide professional training better adapted to technological development; and to create national labour office that would inform the public of the state of the job market.

Between 1981 and 1986, the working population increased by 120,000 per year, 1/3 of whom were youths under 25 years. But employment in the modern sector grew by 1 percent only and most new jobs were in the informal sector. In attempt to improve the situation financial institutions such as FONADER and FOGAPE were created. The private and parastatal modern sectors grew at the rate of 56 percent; but more than 50 percent of the employees were untrained personnel. The agricultural sector employed over 75 percent of the working population and was growing at an annual rate of 2 percent while the informal sector employed more than 3 3 percent in the urban area.

off SeSd. in 1986, at least 250,000 people were looking for

work for the first time. There is an inverse relationship between level of education and the duration of search for work. Due to the

mismatch between skills required and the training received 20-25 percent of the working population was underemployed in 1976 and 3.5 Percent of the labour force employed temporarily. In addition non-

African foreigners tended to occupy high posts especially in the private sector. The Fifth Plan was thus unsuccessful in reducing inegalities in salaries, particularly between the public and the

private sector as well as between foreigners and Cameroomans.

During the Six Plan, with the growth of the working population at 3.1 percent per year for men and 4.3 percent for women, the decrease of the primary sector as a source of employment and growth

of the tertiary sector by 20 percent, priority was to be given

to : small and medium size enterprises; agriculture, expansion of collective bargaining and a study on the employment situation. But

with the onset of the economic crisis, agriculture alone continues to be the priority sector in terms of solving the problem of

unemployment. Yet, expansion of the sector, at best, will be

extremely limited; consolidation and privatization, instead, seem to be the easier options.

(c) BtihrartJQ"

There were only 40,575 children enrolled in nursery schools in 1981, a total enrolment of only 9.7 percent. The pupil/teacher ratio was 32 but few of the teachers were trained. The number of classrooms, teaching materials, classroom equipment and toilet facilities were inadequate. The Fifth Plan intended to remedy the situation and succeeded to open a section for training nursery school teachers in teacher training schools and decrease the number of children in class from 67 to 64; little else changed and the Sixth Plan resolved to continue implementing the objectives of the Fifth. Enrolment at the pr*"*"^ school level was growing at the rate of 3.95 percent; only 2.6 percent of these were new, the rest being repeaters. The Fifth Plan set out to improve this as well as the drop out rate, maintain the pupil teacher ratio at 50, increase the number and quality of teachers, classrooms, reduce disparities in the provinces in the distribution of teachers and other facilities and improve on school equipment, teaching aids and sanitary facilities. By the beginning of the Sixth Plan, enrolment had increased to 4.4 percent annually, 44.5 percent of whom were girls; government schools harbored 65.7 percent of the pupils.

Teachers increased but the pupil/teacher ratio rose to 5. The rest remained unchanged.

The state of general secondary education at the onset of the Fifth Plan was as follows : the annual growth rate was 11.9 percent for enrolment, 8.4 percent for teachers, 7.4 percent for new schools and 17.8 percent for classrooms. Mon-qualified teachers, however, had reached 55.5 percent and repeaters were up to 15 percent. And most of the new schools were private. In technical schools, the annual growth rate was 13.3 percent for enrolment, 9.8 percent for teachers, 14.7 percent for non-qualified teachers, 8 percent for new schools with 81 percent of them in the private sector, 10.1 percent for classrooms but only 3 percent for equipped

final year results were worse than those of general education The Fifth Plan set out to improve on the above situation but at the

onset of the Sixth Plan, nothing had improved as expected. In fact

all the growth rates had declined. Better results were expected

from the Sixth Plan in all these areas.

At the close of the 1970s, student annual enrolment in Yaounde

University was growing at 13.2 percent, 21.1 percent in the Faculty

of Law and Economics and in unspecified percentages in the Dschang Advanced School of Agriculture and the Douala University Center despite the fact that structures were incomplete in the latter two institutions and most of the teachers were part-time. Enrolment was

decreasing however, in the Health Science Center, the Faculty of

Science of the Yaounde University and in the School of Journalism.

The linguistic Center at Buea and the Ngaoundere University Center

were completed by the end of the Fifth Plan.

Teacher training schools during the Fifth and Sixth Plans were producing only half of the teachers needed while classrooms increased at the rate of 17.1 percent annually even though they still could not meet the needs. And there were about 10 different types of vocational schools to train school leavers at all levels.

They varied from national to provincial schools depending on the level of their trainees.

Despite the keen awareness of the Fifth and the Sixth Plans that failure of teachers, school facilities, equipment and teaching aids to keep pace with the growth of student enrolment there would have a negative impact on performance and general plans for socio- economic development, there was little success in this area as there was in attaining 100 percent primary enrolment, reducing urban-rural disparities and the revision of the curriculum to make it more sensitive to development and labour needs. With the concentration on cutting back on expenses in response to the economic crisis and the introduction of cost sharing with parents, above priorities have had to be shelved for now. But the plans were silent on intended measures to correct gender imbalance in enrolment especially in secondary, higher and vocational schools as well as plans to incorporate children with various handicaps

into the educational system.

(d) Heal±£i

At the time when the Fifth Plan was being elaborated, hospitals from sub-divisional to central levels serviced 50 percent of the entire population while community medicine catered for 65 percent. Preventive medicine had made progress in organizing campaigns against contagious diseases and vaccinations of 40 percent of all children under 3 years. Activities centered on hygiene and sanitation had been stepped up with the setting up of health units and structures at village, district, sub divisional, provincial and central levels. A variety of specialists had been trained but due to absence of various specialization facilities, they had to be trained abroad. Training schools in the country were saturated and the doctor/population ratio, was 1/10,820, a long way from the WHO ideal of 1/1000.

The health budget for the Fifth Plan was 4.7 percent of the national budget and gave priority to preventxve medicine using the

£rimaW Health Care (PHC) approach as well as the increase of Sained staff and Health units at all levels. Its achievements included improvement of the Crude Death Rate, Life Expectation and Child Mortality Rates from 17.1/1000 to 14.9/1000, 50 years to 52 years, and 117/1000 to 105/1000 respectively. Construction of health units was achieved at 17.1 percent, training of staff at

39.3 percent and recruitment at 32.8 percent. There was also some success in the preventive medicine sector vaccinations, setting up

of primary health committees at various levels, diagnostic and

treatment campaigns etc. Little was achieved, however in eliminating disparities between rural and urban areas and between

provinces, resolving the problem of shortage of drugs hospital

beds and construction of "propharmacies" . Engagement of the population in health promotion activities was achieved on a very

limited basis also.

The Sixth Plan pursued the objectives of the Fifth Plan in

addition to plans to develop emergency units in hospitals, computerize information, increase research activities, streamline coordination with health activities in the private sector, set up a drug manufacturing company and through the PHC approach, intensify women education in health and child spacing as well as reduce IMR from 105/1000 to 78/1000 and life expectancy from 52 to 54.5 years. Measures to combat the economic crisis, however, have included setting aside the Sixth Plan and concentrated on revenue recovery tactics.

The two development plans reviewed make no reference to the problems of AIDS and abuse of addictive drugs. Attempts to deal with the latter on a preventive basis, however, are to be found in the Ministry of Social and Women's Affairs, and indirectly in the

Ministry of Youth and Sports.

(e) Xon£b

Characteristics of the youth population, their employment status, attempts being made to prepare them for the labour market in the mainstream of the educational and vocational system, provisions made for school health services and health education have been discussed in earlier sections. In this section, a review of programmes that have been provided for youths that do not continue with formal education after primary and/or secondary schools will be examined.

"propharmacie" is a French term for village drug stores with limited supply of on-the-counter medication that can be recommended by health workers without danger to the consumer.

their policy on youth action programmes. It comprised using the National Office for Participation in Development (NOPD) to set up programmes in the urban and rural areas for the training integration and follow up. Civic Service Centers in urban and rural areas initiated youth to manual labour (farming, livestock breeding, handicrafts, mechanical work etc) and community projects.

Once trained, they would be integrated either in pioneer farms, home villages or group farms in the rural areas or in the public, private or informal sector in the urban areas with government aid.

There were also plans to construct permanent mass education centers and stadia, at all administrative unit levels as well as school sports facilities and sports infrastructure in various divisions.

Physical education instructors were to be trained in sufficient

numbers.

During the Fifth Plan, youths benefited from training in various structures of NOPD and 724 were trained by mobile teams:

50 settled in pioneer villages and 76 of those trained in

handicrafts were installed near industrial complexes for easy access to business. Various stadia and sports facilities were built and renovated in schools and provinces and 3 training schools for instructors renovated. The Sixth Plan intended to follow up on the objectives of the Fifth Plan; the budget was almost double what had been allocated for the previous Plan. But with the economic crisis, new projects have been suspended, service budget reduced and every effort deployed to reduce expenses. Youth will have to rely more on the informal sector as unemployment rises and hits on them the

hardest.

(f) Social Welfare

This section will review very briefly the provision made in the two Plans for women, the family and the disabled.

Women; Constraints against women's full participation in the socio-economic mainstream still exist. In 1981, in primary schools, only 67 percent of the girls enrolled compared to 79 percent of the boys; many of them were still illiterate and only 3 percent had regularly paid jobs; 43 percent of the working population only is made up of women; 88.8 percent of the female working population is in the rural areas growing food and is statistically excluded from the working population. Women make up only 5 percent of the labour force in the private and parastatal sector. Aware of these imbalances, the Fifth Plan set out to enhance the role of women in the social, cultural and economic activities. It was quite successful. A national Committee on Population as mentioned earlier, was created, and 8 clinics opened nation wide to educate women on family planning, responsible parenthood etc. Women centers, animation pools in rural areas, women cooperatives etc were created; more doors were opened to women in the army, police force, financial institutions and even schools that used to be for boys only. But still only 2.6 percent of the women working population is in the secondary sector and 5.3 percent in the tertiary sector. The informal sector absorbs the rest. The Sixth Plan aimed at intensifying the implementation of the objectives of the Fifth Plan but very little financial help can be expected from the government now with the economic crisis.

The Family : The Fifth and Sixth Plans adopted the policy of promoting and protecting the family by ensuring greater matrimonial stability and making the family aware of its formative role and of the need to provide the child with good practical and moral ouidance, the lack of which is the cause of many cases of juvenile delinquency. To this effect, 8 out of 35 planned social centers were completed whereby families could come for counselling and education programmes. Projects to integrate marginalized families into society among the Pygmies and the Bororos were started.

institutions for youth reeducation, rehabilitation and training were renovated, equipped and strengthened; some 13 projects were planned in the urban areas to work with youth in their natural environments in the prevention of juvenile delinquency five of which were completed. The Sixth Plan continues to pursue the implementation of the objectives of the Fifth Plan but with enormous difficulties because of the economic crisis.

The disabled : The Fifth and Sixth Plans intended to achieve ongoing protection of the handicapped and the aged through elaboration of an appropriate law, to launch a social security system for all those who have none, to intensify the socio- professional rehabilitation of the handicapped, to start special education programmes for the mentally retarded, deaf and dumb and the blind, and to streamline the management of old age and death benefits as well as prevention and compensation for job risks.

During the Fifth Plan, millions of CFAS were given to the handicapped in cash in attempt to ease their situation; the National Center for the Rehabilitation of the Handicapped was renovated, expanded and better equipped to handle the making of various protheses and equipment for the handicapped. There was also a census of the handicapped and an institution for the blind was completed and a second one started. A law stipulating the various ways in which the handicapped must be protected was also passed.

The Sixth Plan was to continue with the implementation of the objectives of the Fifth but with almost no resources due to the budget cutbacks following the crisis. The strategy has been altered to one of counseling and mobilizing the handicapped to rely on themselves.

The structural adjustment programme recently adopted has a social dimension component that aims at protecting the disabled, women, youth and the poor against the serious impact of the recovery measures by giving them short term loans for small commercial projects. Unfortunately, a prerequisite for giving the loans is that they are repaid within a very short time. Thi s requires perfect implementation which seems impractical for the type of population for whom they are targeted.

3-

Since independence, Kenya has undoubtedly made significant progress in a member of areas, e.g, the provision of primary school education has been spectacular, i.e, in relation to the provision of this basic need at independence. In the past also, that is before the devastating economic crisis of the 1980s, -there were real gains e.g., in wages and incomes so that real incomes per head actually rose while employment grew, among others. However, the international shocks of the 1970s - particularly the oil price rises, coupled with the collapse of the East African Community, and

more recently the devastating drought of 1984, together with domestic structural imbalances, and the like - hav^°^ced*°

impose severe pressures upon Kenya economic ^f^ture. The situation has further been significantly exacerbated by rapid

population growth which has created unpredented burden on Practically all the socio-economic infrastructures. For example at the end of this century, Kenya will have a population of approximately 35 million people, i.e., 78 per cent more people than lived in Kenya in 1984. Consequently, economic growth has considerably slowed down to the point where average incomes have

barely risen since the late 1970s, while a large segment of the

population is now faced with primary poverty.

(a) ance Demographic Issues

In 1988, Kenya's population was estimated to be 23 million.

With a growth rate of almost 4 per cent per annum, the population is projected to reach over 27 million by the end of the current plan period (1993). Of these 27 million people, 21.6 million will

be in the rural areas compared to 5.6 million in urban areas. An important dimension of Kenya's rapid population growth rate, and spatial distribution, particularly in relation to socio-economic development, is the balance between population and land. For example, about 80 per cent of Kenya's land area (473,000 sq. km.

out of a total land area of 582,646 sq. km.)' is arid or semi-arid.

Only a mere 18 per cent (104,844 sq. km.) constitutes the medium and high potential areas which support two-thirds of the country s population' (Sixth Development plan in 1989-1993: 171). As we shall see later, given the expansion in the labour force implied by such rapid population growth rate, and the comparatively small proportion of medium and high potential land, important questions arise regarding, in particular, future employment and labour absorption. Already, land pressure is though to be a Significant factor in explaining Kenya's recent but extremely rapid rural-urban migration. Another important dimension of Kenya's rapid population growth rate is the dependency ratio- almost 50 per cent of the population is made up of children below 15 years. Inevitably, this exerts tremendous pressure on already overstretched and limited socio-economic infrastructures - particularly health, education, employment and housing, among others. The sum total of the foregoing is the fact that there is urgent need to harmonize measures intended to reduce the levels of infant mortality with reduction in fertility levels now shown to be about the highest in the world.

Another important dimension of Kenya's demographic profile is the rapid rural-urban migration to the country's three major cities namely: Nairobi, Mombasa and Kusumu, consequent to the historical concentration of manufacturing and commercial activities, especially in Nairobi and Mombasa. Since migration invariably tends to be selective in favour of younger age groups - especially males - and those who have had some education, rapid rural-urban migration has serious ramifications for the productivity of the agricultural sector, especially in the area of food production for domestic consumption. To arrest this development, the government established what is known as Designated Service centre Hierarchy through which it is hoped to promote and achieve a better and more balanced development among the various regions of the country.

Essentially, this entails giving a higher priority by all

55SSiii to those centres designated as "gateway towns" in the

Sove scheme, when sitting public sector investments, especially those pertaining to the construction of ma3or roads (Fifth

Development Plan, 1984-1988: 59).

Explicit population policies, as a prerequisite to orderly

development, ^intimated in the current development plan There

it is stated infc^r alia 'Government has all along attempted to

qrapple with the irreducible question of population growth The rajor concern is that the inability of Kenya's natural resource

base and industry to sustain rapid (labor force growth tends to

lead to low incomes and unacceptable living standards.... To this extent, the most effective public policy approach in this area is,

therefore, through persuasion and education. Government is

determined to control by all legitimate and acceptable means the

size of the population to match available resources and will continue to educate Wananchi on the effects and consequences of large families on family welfare and quality of life in general.

Facilities will also be provided within easy reach for those who

opt to practice family planning to further reflect Government s grave concern on this matter' (Sixth Development Plan, 1989-1993:

209-210). Tables 9-2 and 9.3 in the appendix are meant to give insights into some important dimensions of Kenya's demographic

profile in the last 40 years or so.

(b) KBpi^yyoiifc

The inexorable link between the question of employment and development in general was brought into sharp focus by the ILO/UNDP 1972 mission to Kenya entitled Employment. Incomes and Equality:

a Strategy for increasing Productive Employment in Kenya. As pointed out previously, among the many variables affecting socio- economic development in Kenya, is the structural imbalance between rapid population growth and the provision of basic needs. For instance, the prospect for creating sufficient employment for the country's rapidly growing labour force is indeed daunting: a fact noted by all the countries development plans since the late 1970s.

This point is succinctly brought out in the sessional paper number

1 on Economic Management for Renewed Growth (PP- 6-7), where it is

stated inter alia:

Perhaps the stiffest challenge facing Kenya's people over the next 15 years is to reduce the size of their families so that the economy can provide adequately for all Kenyans. During the 1970s Kenya's population expanded at an estimated 3.8 per cent a year. Today, an "average"

woman, whose child bearing duplicates that of her contemporaries of all age groups, would give birth to 8 children; ... this ... total fertility rate is the highest in the world. Were this fertility rate to remain constant until 2000, Kenya's population would grow by 4.3 per cent a year to reach 38.5 million in 2000,...

Population growth for the past decade nas already determined the size of the labour force in 2000: all those who will be potential workers then are alive today.

Thus, we know to a close approximation that the 1984 work

force of 7.5 million will become 14 millxon in 2000 Even if the economy creates jobs at 3.4 per cent a year from 1984 - 2000 which would be a small improvement over the decade from 1972-1982, the unemployment would

increase substantially.

In the Fourth Development Plan (1979-3 983: 13) it was

projected that the population of working age would increase, over

the plan period, by 266,000 per annum of whom 50,000, or less than 19 per cent, would expect to find employment in the recorded modern sector each year, the rest, i.e., over 80 per cent, would have to seek qainful employment in small-scale agriculture (where land

pressure is increasing rapidly), the rural non-form sector or in

the urban informed sector. This point is reiterated again in the

Fif+h p*>v^lop^nt Plan (1984-1988: 6) where it is stated that ...

Ot f th ulation had to

Fif+h p*>v^lop^nt Plan (19841988: 6) wher

in 1981 theOutputof about 40 per cent of the population had to

support the remaining 60 per cent.... This high dependency ratio is. of course, a consequence of the high population growth rate Thus, employment has grown ... at an annual rate of 3 per cent, which is lower than the growth rates of population and labour force. Inevitably, this has meant a growing proportion of the labour force remaining unemployed (see tables 1.3, 1.4, 1.5, and

3.5 in the appendix) (Five Development Plan: 29 and 74). To

confront the crisis of rapidly growing labour force, open and

disguised unemployment, and underemployment conseguent to, among

other factors, demographic explosion discussed here, the Government

in its various policy instruments, has gradually shifted from its

previous emphasis on import-substitution strategy with its capital- intensive orientation, to small-scale rural and urban industrial

development, non-form activities and the urban informal sector.

The informal sector in Kenya is, undoubtedly, and despite the various conceptual difficulties associated with the term, the most significant employer of labour in the urban areas - the exact statistics on the sector do not exist, however, its approximate size can be extrapolated from the official statistics on private and public labour force provided participation. Contained in the

tables found in the appendix. Additionally, the ILO mission to

Kenya estimated that informal employment accounted for 25 to 30 per cent of total urban employment in 1969, and 28 to 33 per cent of African urban employment. However, compared to other African countries for which similar data were available, the mission considered this figure rather low (ILO, 1972: 225). Another ILO/JASPA (1985: 13) report indicated that the informal sector in Kenya (Nairobi) was providing employment for 44 per cent of the urban labour force in the mid 1970s. Given the severe economic crisis of the 1980s together with Kenya's rapidly growing labour force, it is reasonable to assume that the urban informal sector is providing employment for a much large proportion of the urban labour force than is indicated by these data. Again, the informal sector in the rural areas (non-farm activities) provides employment for a significant proportion of the rural labour force-now thought to vary between 25 and 30 per cent. Through the implementation of the Rural Trade »nrt Production Centres (RTPC) and Kural-Urfrm

d b Th Ditt Delopment l Trade »nrt Production Centrs ()

toianne strategy supported by The District Development Fund (Sixth Development Plan 1989-1993: 48) the government hopes to accelerate efforts at rural employment creation by improving infrastructure

which will boost development and improve the general welfare of the

people.

(c)

Since independence, the Kenyan government has recognized the centrality of education, not only as a basic need but also as an important link to the overall development strategy. This is

evidenced by the tremendous amount of emphasis and resources

lirecSed towards this sector . For example, in 1981, the education

sector accounted for 7.2 per cent of GDP enrolment of primary

school age children has rose from less than 50 per cent at Independence (1963) to nearly 93 per cent in 1983 (Fifth National

Development Plan, 1984-1988: 150). Again, over the last 25 years

the education and training system has been the subject of no less than ten reviews by special Commission and Working Parties while the budgetary allocation to this sector rose from K £6 million in 1963 to K £194 million, a rise of 18 per cent of the national recurrent budget at independence to about 30 per cent in 1983 (5th

NDP 1984-1988: 148). The greatest emphasis has correctly been

directed to the primary education, which is now the largest

programme in the education sector. This has been in recognition that 'Primary education is the most important for any child since

it is here that basic knowledge is given to the child and

foundations for an economically productive and satisfying life are laid. Recognizing the direct correlation between mental and physical development and the inescapable fact that this is in turn requires a balanced diet, the Government begin in May, 1979, to provide milk regularly to all primary school children in the country, while the National Feeding Council of Kenya distributes food in the form of a daily midday meal to 35,000 children of pre school and primary school-age. The 4th NDP (1979-1983) projected growth of Primary School enrolment which the free milk scheme for primary school children and the abolition of building and other school funds. The 4th NDP (1979-1983) hoped that the provision of free milk scheme together with the abolition of building and other school funds would significantly increase the primary school enrolment above the Plan's projected figures shown in tables 5.7 and 5.8 in the appendix. Application of authorized and recommended curriculum, etc. All these factors have interplayed to seriously undermine the quality of secondary school system in the country.

Consequently, it is argued, in the current Plan (1989-1993: 17), the Government intends to take steps to moderate the expansion of the secondary school system to bring it in line with the demands placed upon it by the expanding supply from primary schools and national requirements for higher education and training. The establishment of new schools will therefore be given low priority.

University education in Kenya has not kept pace with the demands placed by the first and second levels of the educational system. Thus, less than 20 per cent of those who qualify have obtained places at university in Kenya, which means that a large number of Kenyans have sort university education abroad with consequent substantial foreign exchange remittancesf which the country can ill afford (Fifth Development Plan, 1984-1988: 152).

To address the problem, the government intends to encourage the establishment of private universities provided they meet the standards set by the Commission for Higher Education in terms of

Syllabi, quality of teaching and library facilities. There will also be greater cost-sharing between families and government (Sixth National Development Plan, 1989-1993: 219).

(d)

Since independence, Kenya has made some significant strides towards the provision of health services. As pointed out in the Sixth Development Plan (1989-1993: 236), *the development and expansion of health services and facilities in terms of spatial coverage and personnel and sophistication in tertiary care delivery services have been tremendous since independence'. This is evidenced by, for example, the fact that (1) between 1963 and 1987, the infant mortality rate dropped by one-third (2), life expectancy increased by over ten years and is now approaching sixty years - one of the highest in Africa (3) the number of hospitals has risen from a mere 148 to 254 - an increase of more than 58 per cent (4), the number of hospital beds and cots per 100,000 people increased from less than 110 to 148 and (5), the number of doctors increased from 908 to 3,000 during the period under review - i.e., from a ratio of 8 doctors per 100,000 people to 14 per 100,000. Table 1.7 in the appendix gives the latest figures indicating the level of medical manpower available per unit of population, while Table 6.5, also in the appendix, indicates the level of recurrent expenditure on health infrastructures, excluding research.

CoTMjii frment to Primary Health Care

The concept of Primary Health Care (PHC) as an overal1 strategy towards the provision of health care services in Kenya have not gained grounds. and yet, in all the *Five Development Plans since independence, the stated strategy has laid emphasis on the preventive (PHC) over curative approach' - an excellent example of discrepancy between stated policies in the African Development Plans and actual practice. Thus, in Kenya, currently, curative services take over 70 per cent of public spending on health while preventive medicine accounts for less than 5 per cent of expenditure allocations of the Ministry of Health (Sixth Development Plan pp: 242, 238). Of significant import here, is the fact that in African countries most health infrastructures, with their orientation towards curative services, are urban based - this, ineluctably, means that the vast majority of the rural population are, a priori, excluded from health services.

The commitment to the PHC strategy is reiterated in the latest Development Plan where it is stated that the country subscribes to the principles contained in the Alma Ata Declaration of 1978 which underlines the necessity for PHC approach to underpin the health care delivery strategies in developing countries and to link these strategies to the provision of basic needs. The scheme, inter alia, calls for: appropriate health education, basic sanitary facilities including the supply of safe water and hygienic waste disposal, maternal and child health care including family planning, immunization against major infectious diseases, control and prevention of local endemic diseases, appropriate treatment of injuries and provision of essential drugs. The philosophy behind the Alma Ata Declaration is the fact that PHC approach, which is grounded on or oriented towards preventive health services, as

against curative services, is now widely accepted to be much more cost-effective, especially in developing countries which are continually faced with perennial scarcity of resources. In addressing the existing imbalance in the country between curative and preventive health care delivery services, the government intends to place more emphasis on Maternal and Child Health by expanding ante-natal facilities under the Child Survival Programme and ensuring that by the end of the current Development Plan (1993) at least 80 per cent of all new-born babies are covered by the immunization programme. In this direction greater emphasis will be directed towards the rural sector by making sure that rural services grow at 15.6 per cent per annum, which will be much faster than any other category (Fifth Development Plan 1984-1988). Also greater attention will be paid to health education and environmental health, the latter will attempt to control the three major vector-borne diseases, namely; malaria, bilharzla and

sleeping sickness.

The AIDS Pandemic

Acquired Immunned Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) is a communicable disease syndrome which has rapidly developed into a world-wide pandemic affecting almost 140 countries, 43 of which are in Africa.

The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) which frequently causes AIDS, is transmitted from infected persons through sexual intercourse, blood and vertically from mother to unborn babies.

Previously, Kenyan Development Plans has been silent on the question of AIDS until recently, perhaps because the tremendous ramifications of this pandemic on socio-cultural and economic development were not apparent. However, in the sixth Development Plan (1989-1993) it is stated that %in recent years, the spread of Acquired Immunied-Deficiencv Syndrome (AIDS) has assumed serious proportions and is the most dangerous [i.e. among STDS] since as yet it has no known cure (p. 244). Thus, the Government intends to control the AIDS pandemic through the recently established National AIDS control committee which will be working closely with other relevant regional and international agencies and

organizations.

(e) lontii .

Youth, as a special category, receives very little attention from the various Kenyan Development Plans, especially in the decade of the 1980s. This is despite the fact that the 4th NDP estimated that youth - i.e., young people between the ages of 15 to 20 years - constituted 1.3 million and that they were increasing very rapidly. The absence of serious discussion on youth as a especial category is typefull by the fact that the 4th NDP devoted about a page to the question of youth. The 5th NDP, likewise, devotes 3 lines to the question of youth development, while the current Plan mentions youth mostly in relation to the development of sports in the country. However, there is a Sessional Paper on—Youth Development which is the basis for extending youth programme, with the objective of ensuring maximum contribution by Kenya/s youth to the development of the country. Also, the question of youth is handled by many ministries and private organizations as well as the National Coordinating Committee on youth and the National Youth Development Committee. The existence of these bodies together with

the fact that youth is central to the provision of education, in

particular, may account for their not being is treated as a special category warranting extensive discussion.

(e) snciai Welfare

In many African development Plans, the concept social welfare (and sometimes social development) is perceived in terms of providing for the disadvantaged groups, defined as, for example, the aged, help less children, the sick, the infirm, the physically and mentally handicapped, and those whose difficulties stem from economic and social impediments (see e.g., Kenya's 4th NDP, 1979- 1983 : 182, among others). In this section, our main interest is focussed on women, poor families and the disabled because of their contribution to socio-economic development in Africa and also because they constitute a large proportion of the population in these countries.

Women, until very recently, have been all but absent in African development plans despite their disproportionate and vast contribution to these countries' development process, especially in the agricultural sector. Thus, 'According to the 1977/78 Labour Force Survey [in Kenya], 87 per cent of the entire adult female population reported as being employed (Fifth National Development Plan, 1984 - 1988 : 9). On the other hand because of their relative lack of access to production resources, especially skills and training, women constitute a small proportion of the modern sector employment. In 1987, women were estimated to account for just over 21 per cent of Kenya's modern sector employment. This is despite the fact that around the same period, the proportion of girls in secondary schools was about 40 per cent while the proportion of women in Kenyan universities was estimated to be about 30 per cent (6th NDP, 1989 - 1993 :28). Another factor exacerbating the position of women in Kenya is the coalescence of rapid population growth and the scarcity of viable land for cultivation which has culminated in increasing migration of women to urban areas in search of elusive modern sector employment. Consequently, their rate of unemployment is disproportionately high which means that women must find work in the urban informal sector, where hours of work are unduly long and arduous, while returns to their labour are barely sufficient to subsist beyond primary poverty.

Disabled persons in Kenya are catered for mostly by the Government's vocational rehabilitation programme through which it is hoped to restore those persons suffering from physical or mental impairment to useful employment and economic independence. The long-term objective of the vocational rehabilitation is to absorb as many disabled persons as possible into such services as e.g.

village polytechnics where they can acquire skills for modern employment. Towards this end, the Government intends to improve the existing facilities for disabled persons, especially the industrial rehabilitation centre and orthopaedic workshops in Nairobi, and to build others in the various part of the country where none exists.

Family welfare receives very little direct attention from Kenya's development plans, as a result, there is no social policy on family welfare. To the extent that programmes, by definition, emanate from or are a consequence of policy orientation and

formulation, it is therefore not surprising that there should be no coherent programmes pyx-Aficallv designed to intervene directly

on family welfare provision. Multiplicity of factors interplay to determine the low priority accorded this basic institution in

Africa development plans. Firstly, there is the extreme and perennial scarcity of resources which might lead policy makers,

confronted with competing demands, to argue that scarce resources

are better directed towards more "productive" functions. Secondly,

there is the argument that structural policies and programmes, whether in employment, industry, health, education, agriculture,

and the like, have benefits - albeit in an indirect way - for the

family welfare. And thirdly, it is frequently argued that African family systems have an in-built system of reciprocal or mutual help based on traditional support structures, which continue to intervene in the welfare of families, despite the disorganizing effects of rapid modernization - cum - urbanization and more recently, the devastating consequences of a long - term economic

ii crisis.

The Fourth and most recent development plan of Nigeria was prepared within the framework of the general goal of economic planning of the country, i.e "the achievement of rapid increase in the nation's productive capacity with a view to improving the standard of living of the people".2 It covers the period 1981-1985 and was the first plan to be formulated by a democratically elected government based on the Presidential system. Its projected capital expenditure was also the largest at 82 billion and for the first time local governments participated in their own right in attempt to link development planning with the grassroots.

With the objective of establishing a solid base for the long -

term economic and social development, the Fourth Plan emphasized

agriculture, manufacturing, education, manpower development and infrastructural facilities- Social services were also emphasized as a means of improving the quality of life in the rural and urban sectors in the short run. Unfortunately, barely a year after its elaboration, the country was in full economic crisis. The global recession had struck and the Nigeria oil market had collapsed.

Thereafter, all efforts were focussed on the formulation of appropriate measures for structural adjustment and export diversification. The social development sector was suddenly relegated to the backdoor. This review will therefore focus on what had been planned for in the social sector and what the changes were once the economy was in a crisis.

(a) flmnr

A comprehensive policy on population indicating desirable trends in size, growth rate, internal and external migration as well as spatial distribution does not exist due to the political sensitivity of the subject, cultural diversity and lack of reliable strategy for collecting data.

Fourth National Development Plan 1981-1985: 3

Nonetheless, the population was estimated to be about 100

million in 1986 with an official annual growth rate of 2.5 P^ent though private sources claim that it is between 2.8 percent and 3.5

percent- The CBR has remained at 50/1000 within the last 25 years while the CDR was at 20/1000 in 1980. Dependency ratio was

estimated at 47 percent but when under - employment and unemployment are included, the picture looks much worse. Twenty

£U£ percent of the population was estimated to live in the urban

areas til 1980, 31 percent in 1985 and 35 percent in 1990. This trend has an adverse effect on agriculture and the urban

infrastructure-

The overriding objective of the Fourth Plan was to carry out

a national census that would generate adequate and reliable data as a basis for planning and decision making. All citizens of 18 years and above were required to register as one of the strategies

for monitoring population growth trends. And in order to shape these trends in a way that is consistent with resource potentials,

measures were to be taken to influence fertility, mortality,

migration etc. Thus, facilities for family planning were to be provided and couples educated on how to exploit them voluntarily.

The government was to collaborate closely with the United Nations Fund for Population Activities, International Planned Parenthood

Federation, and the Planned Parenthood Federation of Nigeria.

To discourage urban migration and minimize disparities between the urban and rural sectors, the policy of integrated rural development was to be pursued and both sectors equipped with productive facilities and social amenities. Unfortunately preoccupation with economic recovery has left very little room for the programmes outlined above.

(b) ft^pioyent

During the Third Plan educational and training facilities were rigorously expanded and enrolment in the primary tertiary and

vocational training levels grew. But shortage in manpower, particularly in science and technology persisted up to 3 3 per cent - 50 per cent. The problems of high labour turn - over and the imbalance in the distribution of manpower between the public and

private sector was also important. In addition there was serious

shortage of qualified teaching staff at the university level especially in the Polytechnics as there were qualified students in these fields as well as adequate equipment and laboratories. By the time the Fourth Plan was elaborated in 1981, a tracer study showed urban unemployment to be between 8 per cent and 15 per cent. The oil boom and the massive school enrolment had generated huge migration into the cities. The informal sector had also expanded.

But the Fourth Plan projected to reduce unemployment to 4.0 per cent by 1985- Three fifths of the new jobs were to be generated by the agricultural sector, 1/5 by manufacturing and another 1/5 by the distribution sector. Wage employment was to satisfy 10 per cent employment needs while the rest were to be satisfied by self employment. Seventy five per cent of the wage earners, were to be employed in large and medium size establishment while small scale enterprises were to account for 50 per cent of agricultural wage employment. Modern sector employment was expected to grow by 5.8 per cent each year and services and manufacturing were to account

for 70 per cent of the envisaged additional employment in the

modern sector. About 60 per cent (75 per cent in many states) of

modern sector employment was to be provided for by the public

sector.

The Fourth Plan, however, was as good as discarded as the economic situation suddenly turned sour in the 1980s. By 1985 unemployment was estimated at 9.75 per cent in the urban areas and

in at least 6 state capitals was ranging between 10 per cent and 16 per cent. The national average was estimated at 8.3 per cent.

In the rural areas, unemployment had descended to 3.0 per cent (cf 4 3 per cent in 1974); female unemployment was about 10 per cent while that of the male was at 7 per cent in the urban areas and 6.3 per cent and 3.5 per cent respectively in the rural areas. And of the 45,000 - 50,000 graduates of higher institutions that were produced annually, only 10 per cent were placed on jobs: the labour market was incapable of absorbing the labour supply from the educational system. Similarly, underemployment soared as poverty spread. By 1983, the urban population living in poverty mspite of exercising some kind of economic activity reached 40-45 per cent;

by 1990, it is likely to reach 50 per cent and 55 per cent in the

rural areas.

Employment policy and programmes must be targeted with respect to the age, location, and the level of education of the unemployed.

Capital equipment should be labour intensive, locally fabricated using locally available materials to cut down on unemployment. The output from the school system must also be productively employed.

(c) flftggatifigl

During the Third Plan, the educational sector expanded more than it had during the first 15 years of independence. Annual enrolment at all levels totalled 6,500 students as opposed to the 4,500 that had been expected. The oil boom and the subsequent economic expansion mostly explain this. Local governments attempted to bridge the gap between the rural and urban areas. While coeducational schools improved on female enrolment. But problems of shortage of teachers, high rates of illiteracy due to neglect of adult literacy, inadequate laboratory equipment, science teaching materials and local text books accompanied the growth.

The Fourth Plan sought to raise the quality of education while continuing with the expansion of the 1970s with a budget of 9.3 per cent of the planned public expenditure. Primary education was to emphasize functional literacy by inculcating such subjects as agriculture, home economics and health education. At secondary school level emphasis was to be put on new day neighbourhood schools with pre-vocational and vocational training, expansion of old ones in every state and provision of adequate equipment. Worn out buildings in technical schools were to be replaced and 7 new Federal Technical Colleges built to train craftsmen and supervisors in industry.

With 50 per cent of the budget allocated to higher education,

universities of technology were to be expanded and new ones built

in various stages in addition to a national center for adult education that was to reach 6-8 million illiterates through

campaigns. Graduate and post graduate education was to be expanded

in addition to teacher education.

But the economic crisis led to the reduction of the budget to

6.4 per cent and introduction of fees at primary school. Drop out

rates rose and education became inaccessible to the very poor.

Performance in secondary schools deteriorated as more budgetary emphasis was put on higher education. Although universal education was achieved at primary level in 1983 when enrolment attained 98 per cent, it remained at 26 per cent and 2 per cent in secondary and higher education respectively. Unemployment soared and in 1983 for primary, secondary and post secondary leavers in the urban

areas, it was 31.9 per cent, 16.6 per cent and 10.2 per cent

respectively; by 1985, it had changed to 20.1 per cent, 61.1 per

cent and 6.5 per cent respectively while on the average it took

more than a year to get employment. Nigeria must strive to protect its educational policy by ensuring that the skills and knowledge transmitted to the youth are also guarantors of their productive

survival.

(d) HeaOth

In 1981 only 35 per cent of the population was covered by modern health services inspite of large allocations of money into the health sector. Too much investment had been put on curative

hospital based programmes. The health status was still poor with

life expectancy of 46 years, IMR of 70/1000 in urban areas and 150/1000 in rural areas with an average of 110/1000. Child Mortality rate was high and MMR was 2.4/1000. The last 3 Plans had been characterized by provision of static facilities for urban centers and little emphasis on community service.

There was shortage of manpower all around as exemplified by these ratio in 1979 : doctor/population 1:12,550; dentists/

population 1:307,140; nurses population 1:3,360; midwives/

population 1:4,200; dentists/population 1:47,330. As for hospital beds, the ratio was 1:1,180 and distribution among states very uneven : 90 per cent of all registered doctors were in a few urban areas where only 20 per cent of the population lived. There was also a proliferation of private health care institutions with inadeguate facilities, staff and irregular services.

The policy of the Fourth Plan was to use the Primary Health Care (PHC) principle to provide coverage in all outpatient facilities.

Secondary health care was to be provided partly in hospitals while

tertiary health care was to be available in specialist and teaching hospitals and institutions. The objectives of the Fourth Plan were to achieve 80 per cent health coverage of the whole country by 1985 and 100 per cent by the year 2000 through the use of National Basic Health Services Scheme (BHSS) which was to be organized around the principle of PHC with the local governments as implementers and the Federal Government as the coordinator.

Training of traditional and new categories of personnel was to be accelerated and the use of community health ragents and community leaders for the BHSS was to be pursued. Even distribution of basic essential services at all health centers was to be assured. Old hospitals were to be equipped and new ones built; the performance of health institutions was to be monitored and

evaluated; control of preventable diseases was to be intensified

as well as medical research, and health planning. Procuring system for necessary drugs and medical supplies was to be set up and drug manufacturing within the country promoted. Adequate maintenance of equipment was to be enforced. Inspite of budget cuts following the economic crisis, the principles and objectives of the Fourth Plan have continued to be implemented where possible particularly in the area of PHC, management and production of health personnel. The ratio of physician/population reached 1/8000 in 1983. Continued commitment to the implementation of the objectives of the Fourth Plan should advance the health sector considerably.

(e) X&utii

The situation of youth education, training and employment has already been discussed in details under those sections. This section review other youth activities and programmes that had been provided for in the Fourth Plan and thereafter.

Perhaps the largest and oldest youth programme is the National Youth Service Corps Scheme (NYSC) which is intended to inculcate in youths a spirit of selfless service to the community and to emphasize the spirit of brotherhood. In 1976, it had 3000 corps, and 20,000 in 1978 which was expected to double in 1985. During the Third Plan, the Scheme provided much needed manpower in the private and public sectors, some youth centers and various stadia were also constructed to encourage sports at grassroots level in some states and divisions. But the programmes suffered from insufficiency of resources. The policy of the Fourth Plan did not differ from the one articulated above vis-a-vis NYSC. The Plan was to strive to keep youth gainfully employed and to strengthen national unity through inter-state activities and services for self reliance. Sports opportunities were to be provided for both sexes such that they could develop their skills and thus gain greater confidence in competitive sports. The Federal Government also intended to build comprehensive youth employment centers in 19 states and link up various NYSC programmes in the nation by telephone and radio. The States on the other hand were to build remand homes and reformatory schools for delinquents.

To this day, NYSC is still active despite the catastrophic economic crisis; by 1985-86 there were only 24,804 corps and 25,233 in 1986-87. The Corps, however, have provided a dependable source of teachers in primary and secondary schools, have contributed in the health sector especially in the fight against guinea worm disease, in the community development area, and in the promotion of food production in specially assigned farms. It is hoped that this experience will open agriculture as a source of employment for graduates.

(f) Social Welfare

The social welfare sector has a history of unstable institutional framework which scattered its activities under various establishments that subsequently relegated it to the background with its impact relatively unfelt. In this section activities on women, the family and the disabled will be reviewed

briefly during the period in question.

ff^T-n -n* th* Family : In the Fourth Plan, there if^^tle mention eitherof women or the family. They are included in the Plan only indirectly, for example in plans for services such as children s Trust Fund, day care centers, remand homes, foster homes etc for children and youth, the exploitation of which would automatically associate women and families. In the area of health, however, as

^ereired elrller?Mother and Child Clinics and family planning

services were part of the PHC to safeguard the health of the women

and child thus rendering service to the family.

During the last four years, activities centered around women

have been organized around special occasions such the International women's Day celebrated in 1989, a workshop on women in development organized by ADB, and a skills development programme organized in

3 States. Organized on-going programmes for the enhancement, selt reliance and welfare of women seem to be absent either in the Four Year development plans or the annual ones. Similarly, programmes

focused on the special needs of the family as a unit such as counselling, parental guidance etc seem to be absent. The problem

of iuvenile delinquency and social maladjustment seems to be confined to institutional treatment in remand homes or reformatory schools. The approach in quite expensive and not very efficient in providing coverage of its target population.

The Disabled : During the Second Plan, six rehabilitation centers for the disabled were started but never finished. The objective was to give the disabled a possibility of adjusting to their handicaps, acquire marketable skills and obtain gainful employment, thereby getting reintegrated into society. The centers were to include production workshops to provide sheltered employment and marketable goods. These centers that stood incomplete were to be finished and rendered operational during the Fourth Plan. Special education for the mentally retarded, the deaf and dumb and for the blind were also to be provided with specially trained teachers. But with the severe cutbacks in public spending after the formulation of the Plan, activities for the disabled seem to have been organized around special occasions such as the celebration of the Disabled Week in November 1985, the National Special Olympic for the Disabled and the National workshop on Employment of Disabled

persons.

5.

Zambia is heavily dependent on export earnings from copper - her primary commodity. The heavy dependence on copper exports, in particular, makes Zambia vulnerable to the exigencies of international economic scene, especially that of industrially advanced market economies. Consequently, beginning the mid-1970s, the country began to experience a consistent economic decline despite her impressive economic performance of the 1960s and early

1970s. Thus, by early 1980s, the value of copper export was only

63 per cent of the value in 1974 while real value of imports fell by 60 per cent during the same period. Also, per capita incomes in real terms, adjusted for changes in terms of trade, dropped by 44 per cent while foreign exchange earnings, as a result of worsening terms of trade, fell by more than 40 per cent. In addition, the balance of payments deficit became 30 per cent of GDP, government

revenue from minerals fell to less than one fifths of its previous

level and the budget moved to a deficit equivalent to 24 per cent of the GDP. To confront the economic crisis summarized here, the country turned to the IMF for assistance which, perforce, meant the implementation of the fairly standard orthodox structural adjustment programme, usually prescribed by the Fund - e.g; trade like liberalization, devaluation, price decontrol, removal of subsidies, reduction of government expenditures and the rationalization of the public sector, etc. As is made clear in the Zambian development and interim plans of the 1980s, some of these measures have seriously undermined the provision of social welfare infrastructures and basic needs (see e.g, the Fourth National

Development Plan, 1989-1993).

(a) Same derirp-fipMc issues

According to 1980 census, the population of Zambia was estimated to be 7.2 million in 1987 and 7.5 million in 1988, while the growth rate was estimated at 3.6 per cent and 3.7 per cent per annum in 1987 and 1988 respectively. The crude birth rate was over 49 per 1000 of population during the two years, while the crude death rate was 13.2 per 1000 in 1987 and was expected to decline to 13 per 1000 during the plan period while life expectancy at birth was 54.2 years in 1987 compared 50.9 years in 1980. Total fertility rate was 7.2 children per woman during the period under review. Thus, the rapid population increase observed for the country in recent years is attributed to high fertility, declining mortality and low level of family planning. Some of the factors accounting for high fertility rates are said to be, low age at marriage, low educational levels, desire for large family size, consequent to the various socio-cultural factors, high infant mortality, and the like.

Previously, there has been no attempt to integrate population factors into Zambia's National Development plans. However, it has recently been acknowledged that high population growth rate has been one of the major constraints on attempts at improving the quality of life and standard of living of the Zambian people.

Consequently, the party and the government decided that population issues must be incorporated into all the subsequent development plans, beginning with the 4th NDP. For example, high levels of fertility had led to the extreme youthfulness of the Zambian population in 1980-88 period - almost half of the population was under fifteen years and 20 per cent under 5 years of age; the primary school age constituted about 22 per cent, those between 15 - 64 comprised 47.6 per cent, while those over 65 years made up 2.4 per cent of the population; females in their reproductive ages(15~

49) comprised about 22 per cent. The high dependency ratio created by rapid population growth rate was inmical to rapid socio-economic development as it exerted undue pressure on limited infrastructural facilities, especially, education, health, housing, employment, etc.

Due to high rates of natural increase within the urban areas and sustained rural-urban migration, the rate of urbanization in Zambia is one of the highest in Africa - more than 45 per cent of the population lives in urban enclaves. Zambia is a sparsely populated country : but there are substantial regional variations