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Robust climate scenarios for sites with sparse observations: a two-step bias correction approach

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Texte intégral

(1)

1.5

0.5

0

.5

Te

mper

ature Bias [°C]

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

SSA

LOO

A

●●●● ●●●●

Bias

Validation Framework LDA [#years]

SAE

LUZ

0.80

0.90

Coefficient

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

SSA

LOO

A

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

Pearson Correlation

Validation Framework LDA [#years]

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

Score

● ● ●● ● ● ●●

Perkins Score

(c)

1.0

2

.0

3.0

MAE [°C]

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

Mean Absolute Error

(d)

(2)

0.5

0

.0

0.5

1

.0

Te

mper

ature Bias [°C]

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

SSA

LOO

A

● ●● ● ●●●

Bias

Validation Framework LDA [#years]

SAE

LUZ

0.84

0.88

0.92

0.96

Coefficient

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

SSA

LOO

A

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

Pearson Correlation

Validation Framework LDA [#years]

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

Score

●● ●● ●●

Perkins Score

(c)

1.5

2

.0

2.5

3

.0

MAE [°C]

● ● ● ● ● ●

Mean Absolute Error

(d)

(3)

8

4

0246

Humidity Bias [%]

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

SSA

LOO

A

● ●●● ● ●●●

Bias

Validation Framework LDA [#years]

SAE

LUZ

0.2

0

.4

0.6

0

.8

Coefficient

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

SSA

LOO

A

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

Pearson Correlation

Validation Framework LDA [#years]

0.80

0.90

1.00

Score

● ● ●● ● ● ●●

Perkins Score

(c)

10

15

20

MAE [%]

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

Mean Absolute Error

(d)

(4)

0.7

0

.9

1.1

1

.3

Ratio [Prediction/Obser

vation]

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

SSA

LOO

A

● ●● ● ●●●

Bias

Validation Framework LDA [#years]

SAE

LUZ

0.10

0.00

Coefficient

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

SSA

LOO

A

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

Spearman Rank−Correlation

Validation Framework LDA [#years]

0.6

0

.7

0.8

0

.9

1.0

Score

●● ●● ●● ●●

Perkins Score

(c)

0.4

0

.5

0.6

0

.7

MAE [Fr

action]

●●●● ●●●●

Mean Absolute Error [scaled by mean daily value]

(d)

(5)

0.9

1

.1

1.3

Ratio [Prediction/Obser

vation]

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

SSA

LOO

A

●● ●● ●● ●●

Bias

Validation Framework LDA [#years]

SAE

LUZ

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

Coefficient

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

SSA

LOO

A

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

Spearman Rank−Correlation

Validation Framework LDA [#years]

0.7

0

.8

0.9

1

.0

Score

●● ●● ●● ●●

Perkins Score

(c)

0.20

0.25

0.30

MAE [Fr

action]

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

Mean Absolute Error [scaled by mean daily value]

(d)

(6)

0.85

0.95

1.05

1.15

Ratio [Prediction/Obser

vation]

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

SSA

LOO

A

● ● ●● ● ● ●●

Bias

Validation Framework LDA [#years]

SAE

LUZ

0.82

0.86

0.90

Coefficient

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

SSA

LOO

A

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

Spearman Rank−Correlation

Validation Framework LDA [#years]

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

Score

●● ●● ●● ●●

Perkins Score

(c)

0.18

0.22

0.26

MAE [Fr

action]

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

Mean Absolute Error [scaled by mean daily value]

(d)

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