Final report of the intergovernmental expert group meeting on a manual and guidelines on the integration of population variables in development planning: Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) 3-7 November 1986

F I N A L REPORT O r TEiX

I N T ~ G O V ~ P ~ ~ E N T A L EXPERT GEOLJP F B F T I N G ON A YAMJAL RND W I D E L I N E S ON T H E INTEGTUlTIOEJ O F POPULATION V A R I A B L E 113 DDIELOPNENT DLANNING

A. ATTENDANCE AND ORGANIZATION OF \FORK

1. The Task Force meeting of ccuntrv e x o e r t s and i n t e r n a t i o n a l agencies on Guidelines f o r i n t e g r a t i n g ponulstion v a r i a b l e s i n African develooment ~ l a n n i n g was held a t ECA Headquarters, Addis Ababa, from 3 t o 7 November 1986.

2 The meeting was attended by t h e following: Oufriha, Fatima-Zohra ( A l g e r i a ) ; Kokooza, (HABITAT): Ohadike, P.O. (RIPS) ; Oucho, J. (University of airo obi);

Sala-Diaban38, M. ( D O R D ) ; Van de Oever, P . and Goliber, T. (Population Refrence zureau) ; ~abimnna-Plyii-asaf'ali , G. (Rwanda) :, ~ e r e z . - R m i r e z , G . (DTCD) %ot

,

M , and Kalimugogo, G . (0.A.U); Ayassou, K. (ILO). The cornplete l i s t of ~ a r t i c i p a n t s i s presented i n Annex 1.

3 . I n v i t a t i o n had e a r l i e r been extended t o ?A@3 IDEP, IM), IPPF, S o k o i n ~ University of A g r i c u l t u r e , and IINESCO. These o r g a n i z a t i o n s acceuted t o o a r t i c i - p a t e and were t o be r e p r e s e n t e d by 1.iessrs. Yarcoux, A.: Hontasser, E.; Turvey, R . ; Okwen,ie, W . ; Malambiti, N.E.; and R e i f f , H. r e s p e c t i v e l y . However, due l a r g e l y t o t h e change i n d a t e s f o r t h e meeting, t h e s e e x p e r t s c o d d not a.ttend t h e mesting.

b . For each s e s s i o n , t h e s e c r e t a r i a t resented n b r i e f overview of t h e t o p i c t o be addressed; a disc.ussant then h i g h l i s h t e d t h e p o i n t s raised. on t h e main theme;

and, t h e r e was a general debate b-f t h e e x n e r t s befor* a swnmqr of t h e main recom- mendations by t h e d i s c u s s a n t . An e v a l u a t i o n q u e s t i o n n a i r e was provided t o t h e e x p e r t s towards t h e end of t h e meeting. The a n n l y s i s of t h e responses t o t h e questionnaire i s presented i n Annex 2.

B

.

^AGENDA

5 , The meeting adouted t h e followinn work programme:

L--

Discussant

-

I

^{TUESDAY 11 November}

Discussant

-

JEDNESDAY

Discussant

Discussant

I .-

A.M.

Opening Session

-

Keynote aiidress by the Executive Secretary

-

Organization of work

..

Introduction by the Secretaria

Mr. Bahri

P

Session %o

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Prooosals for a revised draft IntroductionlDataj Framework

Mr. DE Graft Johnson

-- . .

--

Session Three

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Pooulation and Agri- cultural plmning

Mr. Pallango

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Session Five

-

Poauliztion and Vanpower Plannina

Mr. Ec. Intosh

..

1;

Session Seven

-

Po~ulation and Health Planning

Mr. W o t

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P.M.

1 I

Session One

1

-

^General

comments and

.

statements

f

by e ~ e r t s

i

i

l

Mr. Ekanem

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Session Two

Cont q d

I

Pk. Mc Intosh Session FOLW

I -

Population

and Education

Planning

I

Session Six

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Populatioil ;ad Housing

--/ ^I

Closing Session ,

I

-

planning Mr. Kakooza

-

^Overview

-

%valuation

and Remarks

/ ^I

I

Mr. Bahri

i

-

Closing

- i l

I

C . RCCOUNT OF PROCZ3'DINGS

open in^ S e s s i o n ( i ) Opening A t d r e s s

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^{-. -. -}

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6. The meeting was opened by t h e C h i e f , ECA P o p u h t i o n g i v i s i o n , vho r e a d an opening speech on behalf of t h e ECA Executii.e Secrets.r:r. I n t h e opening rem9.rks it w a s noted t h a t t h e meeting uas n f o l l o w ^{U D} on t h e Regional T r a i n i n g bIorkshop on Demographic E s t i m a t e s and Tro.jections h e l d a t RI?S, Accra (Mmna), i n J u l y

1985. I n ,?roviding t h e h i s t o r i c a l b a s i s of t h e meeting, changing i s s u e s exohxsizec?

i n socio-economic development d u r i n ? t h e 1960s, 1970s and I.!?90s were revieweil simultaneous with t h e p a r a l l e l e v o l u t i o n o f t h i n k i n g i n t h e n o n u l z t i o n f i e l d from i t s former are-occupation w i t h f e r t i l i t y r e d u c t i o n t o a P u l l e r s n e c i f i c e t i o n of demographic ob.iectives i n t e n s of t h e socio-ecoi~oaic w e l f a r e of s?eci.fic population.subgroups. These developments, culminated i n t h e . s d . o o t i o n of t h e ' Kilimaniaro Prop;rame of Action on p o n d a t i o n (by t h e S e c o n d A f r i c a n P o ? d a t i o r l Conference) which, mong o t h e r t h i n e s , suggested t h a t p e n h e r e f f o r t s be made h~

.African Governments t o c r e t i t e i n c r e a s e d awareness of t h e imnortance of n o n u l a t i o n i n t h e develowment pro- ~ e s s .

7.0 In reviewina t h e p r o v i s i o n a l agenda, t h e mecting was nrped t o a d d r e s s i t s e l f t o t h e meoning of i n t e g r a t i o n , t h e need f o r i n t e g r s t i o n , t h e ~ e i n s of i n t e g r a t i o n and t h e o p e r a t i o n , a l mechanics of i n t e g r z t i - n g , Since t h e S e c r e t a r i e t had t a k e n t h e f i r s t s t e p i n t h e p r o c e s s of i n t e g r a t i n g po?ulation v a r i ~ b l e s i n development a l a n n i n g by o r g a n i z i n g t h e Accra workshop, t h e meetinp w,'s r e q u e s t e d t o focus on t h e o p e r a t i o n n l mechanics of t h e s u b s q u e n t s t e n s n m e l v t r a n s l a t i n g t h e pro.iections i n t o e s t i m a t e s of s o c i a l and economic requirements; r e s e w c h i n g on t h e c o r r e l a t e s of d e t n o g r q h i . ~ c h a n s e and, f ~ m v l ~ t i n g po?nulation p o l i c i e s t o resooni* t o demographically induced requirements.

, ( i i ) I n t r o d u c t o r y Remarks

8. I n providing t h e background b a s i s of t h e meeting, a r e a r e s e n t a t i v e of t h e S e c r e t a r i a t r e f e r r e d t o

(i)

t h e g l o b a l workshop on e s t i m 8 t e s and pro.jections

h e l d i n Budapest ( ~ u n ~ a r ~ ) i n 1980; and, ( i i ) t h e chtznge i n a t t i t u d e by ECA nember S t a t e s on t h e q u e s t i o n of t z k i n a account of a o p u l a t i o n f a c t o r s i n t o d e v e l o k e n t planning d u r i n g t h e p e r i o d between t h e two world p.opul3;tion conferences i n

~ u c h a r e s t (1974) and Mexico C i t y (1984)'. Sn o r d e r t o provide t h e "know how" f o r e f f e c t i n g t h e s a i d a t t i t u d i n a l c h m g e , t h e S e c r e t a r i a t organized t h e A c c r a 1

~ m r k s h o p . The oroceedings of t h a t workshon have been pub,listled and should e n a b l e member S t a t e s t o o r e p a r e n a t i o n a l and s u h n a t i o n a l p r o j e c t i o n s . S e c t o r a l

p r o j e c t i o n s w i l l be t&gn up by t h e S e c r e t a r i a t i n t h e course of t h e 1988-1989 biennium.

9. ^' The r e p r e s e n t a t i v e of t h e C e c r e t a . r i a t f u r t h e r observed th@.t following t h e Accra workshon, t h e p l a n was t o p r e n a r e x msnual f o r i n t e g r a t i n g p o n u l a t i o n v z r i a b l e s i n A f r i c a n development planning. However, given t h e need Tor a teem e f f o r t i n t h i s r e g a r d and t h e ocgoing a c t i v i t y on a gl0b?A l e v e l b:r tine IJN

ECA/W"F'POT/~~/~. 4 (ii ^j. ) Page

Population D i v i s i o n , t h e S e c r e t a r i a t f e l t t h a t it would b e user'ul t o s t a r t '5th

" ~ u i d e l i n e s " f o r t h e some p r p o s e and exnand t h e l ? t t e r i n t o a Manual a t z l r - t e r d a t e . Accordingly, t h e Z n r i ? d r a f t of t h e "Guideli~zes" w a s intendt?d t o quide a i s c u s s i o n s a t t h e ? r e s e n t meeting, _R r e v i s e d i'G~idelL!~i.s'F t r i l l . be ?repa.red following t h e ~ e e t i . n ~ , ,

. .

S E S S I O ~

oitt

, , , General Comnents anr? Statements by ^--,-- Experts

. .

. ^{, . .}

1 0 , The S e c r e t a r i a t r e q u e s t e d t h e e x p e r t s t o c o m e n t g e n e r a l l y on t h e backgmund documents on t h e " ~ u i d e l i n e s " . Following .?.re t h e key i s s u e s t h a t were r a i s e d :

( i ) The i s s u e s addressed i n t h e back~irouncl document were gener-zlly d i s c u s s i v e a b o u t - " i n t e g r a t i o n " : , t h e s e shouliI r a t h e r be nresemted exilctly and o r d e r l y end should f o c u s on " t h e howqP of i n t e g r a t i n g no?ul&ion v : i r i : ~ b l e s i i s .African develop-.

ment planning; ( i i ) t h e r e should be a review of e x i s t i n g methodologies f o r

i n t e g r a t i n ~ p o p u l a t i o n v a r i a b l e s i n t o develonment ol;;lninri; a s v e l l ns ,an _overview of t h e l i n i t a t i o n s of such t e c h n i q u e s . This vould prolride a h s i , s f o r evolving

9 1

new methodologies %s i n t h e proposed. Guidelines":, (iii) t h e r e v?s need f o r ?.

d e c i s i o n on whether t h z " ~ u i d e l i n e s ~ s " c h a n t e r on "data" should focus on dat~,:

i n f o r n a t i o n r e q u i r e d f o r manpa-.*er n l z n n i n ~ o r on n o p u l a t i o n data. r e q u i r e d f o r socio-economic o l a n n i n g ; ( i v ) t h e meaning. of ?I In+egra.tion" and. t h e " ~ r a m e v o r k "

f o r i n t e g r a t i n g ~ o p u l a t i o n v a r i a b l e s i n t o development planning s h o u l d b e sueLt o : ~ t in g r e a t e r d e t a i l t h a n was t h * c a s e i n t h e background document; ( v )

t h e r e was need -to s e ? a r a t e H e a l t b / ~ s r i c u l t u r a l olanning: ( v i ) t h e r e " ~ u i d e l i n e s "

-

^-

should nrovose an i n s t i t u t i o n a l arrangement w i t h two u n i t s

-

The 3 a i a l i n i t t o focus on t h e d a t a s i t u a t i o n i n c h d i u g c o l l e c t i o n , a n a l y s i s , r e s e a r c h , t r a i n i n g , e v a l u a t i o n

I

a ~ d i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of f i n d i n g s : and, t h e P o l i c y IJnit t o focus on nopulst,ion p o l i c y

f o r m u l a t i o n and imnlementation. The meeting t h e n decider1 t h a t b e f o r e it ^CO:L?*

I

r e s o l v e t h e above i s s u e s r a i s e d , t h e s e c r e t a r i a t s h o ~ ? l & f i r s ' ?rovi?e an o n e r a t i o - n a l d e f i n i t i o n of i n t e g r a t i o n i n t h e c o n t e x t of t h e " ~ u i d e l i n e s " . This should t h e n be followed by an e x p o s i t i o n of t h e framework f o r i n t e g r n t i n c n o p u l e t i o n v a r i a b l e s i n African d s v e l o ~ m e n t .slennin&.

11. . I n - p r o v i d i n g an o p e r a t i o n a l d e f i n i t i o n f o r . i n t e g r a t i o n i n t h e c o n t e x t of t k

Y ?

Guidelines", t h e s e c r e t a r i ~ t noted t h a t based on t h e growing l i t e r a . t u r e on p o p u l a t i o n and development i m t e j i r a t i o n , a t t h e macro development nlanning l e v e l , means t h e t a k i n g account of pro.iection.s of s i z e , age-sex s t r u c t u r e and s p a t i a l

d i s t r i b u t i o n of t h e . ~ o p u l a t i o n . i n determinine requirements f o r food, emoloyment, e d u c a t i o n / h e n l t h s e r v i c e s , housing sad o t h e r h a s i c needs, i / The s e c r e t a r i a t f u r t h e r noted t h a t i f t h e foregoiny: was a l l t h e r e was t o i z t e P I r e t i o n 5 t h e n i n t e - grs-tion had been achieved hy member S t a t e s and nothing more was needed t o be s a i d

1/ . H e r r i n , A.!\i.

,

T=y~-ds o p e r a t i o n a l i z i n ~ t&cC:o_n_cqt.. ff"_t~-~~tion- ^f

-

p o p u l a t i o n and d c v e i ~ m ~ t n l a n n i n c : The P h i l i x ~ l e ~ x p e r i e n c c ( ~ u ~ r i

-

Research n ~ p e r S e r i e s No. 21: "larch 1 0 5 5 r

ECA/WP/POP/86/1. (iii Page

5

excepting t h e need f o r t h e member S t n t e s t o o b t a i n a c c u r a t e ponulation d a t a f o r planning. However, t h e s e c r e t a r i a t f u r t h e r noted t h z t f o r population p r o g r m e managers a t t h e same l e v e l , i n t e g r a t i o n means t h e formulating o f socio-economic p l i c i e s which, while contributiaiq t o economic Erowth and higher standards of l i v i n g , have a decisive impact upon demoaraphic t r e n d s .

g/

12. S t i l l f o r ~ o p u l a t i o n programme managers a t t h e progrilmme planning l e v e l , t h e s e c r e t a r i a t qave four o t h e r . d e f i n i t i o n s including ( i )

h he

a d d i t i o n of f m d y planniag a c t i v i t i e s t o ongoing programmes i n h e a l t h , n u t r i t i o n , education and r u r a l develo7ment1'; ( i i ) "the use of e s t a b l i s h e d development oroiqrnmmes t o c a r p out f m i l y planning a c t i v i t i e s " ; ( i . i i ) Its, family planning s t r a t e q t h a t uses a development p r o j e c t a s an e n t r y point f o r t h e dissemination of f m i l v p l ~ n n i n g information and f o r motivational cmnaipps t o increase t h e use o f family nlanning methods"; m d , ( i v ) "the merger of a s p e c i a l i z e d agency performing s o l e l y family planning ~ c t i v i t i e s with a l a r g e r e s t a b l i s h e d agency which n o m d l y performs Such a c t i v i t i e s a s ~ a r t of a. broader range of a c t i v i t i e s i n order t o avoid c o s t l y

d u p l i c a t i o n of e f f o r t s " .

3/

13. Given t h e f o r e g o i n s , t h e s e c r e t a r i a t t h e n observed t h a t not only uas t h e r e no e x p l i c i t d e f i n i t i o n of i n t e g r a t i o n , but when t h e term " i n t e g r a t i o n " does anpear, it i s o f t e n used i n d i f f e r e n t c o n t e x t s . n e v e r t h e l e s s , t h e s e c r e t a r i a t tinen observed t h a t i n order t o pro?ose an o g e r a t i o n a l d e f i n i t i o n of i n t e g r a t i o n i n t h e context of t h e "Guidelines", it was important f o r t h e meeticg t o bear i n mind t h e f e c t t h a t i n develop?nent planning, g o a l s and o b j e c t i v e s a r e normally considered and p o l i c i e s / programmss a r e then formulated t o achieve those g o d s and o b j e c t i v e s . For t h e purpose of t h e "Guidelines", t h e s e c r e t a r i a t then observed t h a t i n t e g r a t i o n r e f e r s t o t h e e m l i c i t consideration of socio--economic 8,nd demographic i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s i n t h e f o r n u l a t i o n of t h e s e develonment p o l i c i e s and programmes t o achieve t h e n a t i o n ' s development o b j e c t i v e s .

1 4 .

The meeting then discussed t h e s e various d e f i n i t i o n s of i n t e g r a t i o n and adopted t h e o p e r a t i o n a l d e f i n i t i o n oronosed by t h e s e c r e t a r i a t i n r e l a t i o n t o t h e

"Guidelines"

.

SESSION TG70

1ntroduction/i3at~/F'ramework

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15. In presenting t h e general framework f o r i n t e g r a t i n g population v a r i a b l e s i n development olanning, a r e p r e s e n t a t i v e of t h e s e c r e t a r i a t noted t h a t based on t h e foregoing o p e r a t i o n a l d e f i n i t i o n of i n t e g r a t i o n , t h r e e elements a r e involved i n t h e concept of i n t e g r a t i o n namely ( i ) t h e development of o b j e c t i v e s ; ( i i ) t h e

behavioural model; and, ( i i i ) t h e develowment of p o l i c i e s an6 n r o g r m e s .

ECA/WP/POP/~~/~ .4 ( i i i ) Page 6

16.

He f u r t h e r noted t h a t t h e development ob.iectives must be s p e c i f i e d i n - terms of both-socio-economic and demogranhic outcomes. The behavioural model serves r.s t h e frimework- fort viewing t h e socio-economic and demogranhic i n t e r - r e l a t i o n s h i p s . - T h e t h i r d element of t h i s i n t e g r a t i o n concept i s t h e s e t of socio- economic and demogranhic p o l i c i e s f o r a t t a i n i n g t h e Jevelopment ob.jectives.:

Tnese same t h r e e elements a l s o a f f e c t Planning a t t h e s e c t o r a l and p r o j e c t l e v e l s . 'Demoarqihic , p o l i c i e s a f f e c t o r i m a r i l y dexographic processes; economic p o l i c i e s . a f f e c t g r i m w i l y economic ' b o l i c i e s . Both processes j o i n t l y a f f e c t . development outcomes.. It :follows t h a t both demographic and economic m l i c i e s must be f o r m u l . z t e d i n a comprehensive and i n t e g r a t e d manner t o prod.uce t h e d e s i r e d d e v e l o y e n t . outcomes. :

. . .

17.

The discussant f o r %he s e s s i o n then r a i s e d i s s u e s on ( i ) t h e n a t u r e of t h e pl.mnink n r o c e s S i n themember S t a t e s ; ( i i ) t h e c r i t i c a l s e c t o r s t h a t should be covered i n t h e '!Guidelines"; i n d , ( i i i ) t h e n a t u r e of .deta required f o r p l a n i n g i n r e l a t i o n t o t h e " " ~ u i d e l i n e s " .

18. Regarding t h e ~ l - m n i n g process, t h e discussant observed t h a t member S t a t e s have adopt'ed d i f f e r e n t planning systems t o d a t e

-

c e n t r a l , non-central a s well a s i n t e g r a t e d approacfies t o socio-economic develonBent:, i n c r e a s i n g l y , however t'ne' Focus has been on t h e i n c r e a s i n g r o l e of t h e p r i v a t e i n r e l a t i o n t o t h e p u b l i c ' s e d t o r . . These G a i o u s : systems, he stPesse4; can b e b r o a d l y cztegorized i n t o macro' economic and m u l t i - s e c t i r a l ?lans. The di.scussant then noted t h a t

( i ) t h e d i f f e r e n t t p o l o g i e s ' o f planning include s h o r t , medim. End long-term perspective plans: (ii ) l t h e d i f f e r e n t planning: i e v e l s i n c l u d e - n a t i o n a l

,

sub- n a t i o n a l , d i s t r i c t a n d l o c a l a r e a ~ ~ a n n i n q ; a n d , ( i i i ) t h o whcle nlannins nrocess involves preparation', im$lenentation anil monitoring. He then s t r o n g l y suggested t n a t t h e "Guidelines" should emnhasize t h e s e v a r i o u s i s s u e s a s a prelude t o discussing t h e frame.uorlr f o r i n t e g r a t i n g ponliLntion v z r i a b l e s i n development planning.

' . , ...

19. On t h e c r i t i c a l ' s e c t o r s t h a t should be covered $n t h e "Guidelinesi', t h e

&iscussant observed t h a t t h i s should include a g r i c u l t u r e , housing, h e a l t h , water supply, education and t h e development of human resources. Be then noted t h a t although o t h e r s e c t o r s were equally r e l e v a n t , it was important t o l i m i t t h e number of s e c t o r s t o be covered i n t h e "Guidelines" t o t h e s i x ind-icated above.

20. Regarding d a t a , t h e discussant cbserved t h a t i n i t i a l l y most of t h e plans i n t h e member S t a t e s d i d not i d e n t i f y t h e d a t a t h a t wo,dd be required f o r planning and t h e r e was no i n d i c a t i o n of needed q u a n t i t a t i v e information. Bowever, h e

informed t h e meeting t h a t 3 s i n c e 1979 an i n c r e a s i n g number of s t ; a t e s have s t r e s s e d t h e need t o i d e n t i f y t h e d a t a t h a t ~ o u l d be required f o r planning,: . .

21. The discussant then reviewed t h e t w o apnroaches usad i n d e a l i n g with t h e problirm of determining t h e d a t a r e c u i r e d

-

t h e frmework and b a s i c i n d i c a t o r s approaches. For him, t h e frmework apnroach has been abandonet because of i t s l i m i t e d a p p l i c a t i o n i n t h e member S t a t e s due l a r g e l y t o i t s comnlicated n a t u r e and t h e d e t a i l s of d a t a required, Vhlle noting t n a t t h e b a s i c i n d i c a t o r s approach was ^. indeed "derived s t a t i s t i c s s ' , he cnutioned t h a t demographic d a t a per s e were not u s e f u l f o r n l a m i n g purposes u n l e s s t h e y vere r e l a t e d t o socio-economic

v a r i a b l e s t o enhance an a n z l y s i s of i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s .

22. On macro and s e c t o r s 1 p l a n n i n q . t h e d.i.scussant t h e n s t r e s s e c ? 'he i n n o r t m c a o f ( i ) ~ o p u l a t i o r i e s t i m a t e s and. p r o j e c t i o n s ; ( i i ) t h e s o u r c e s of _$&a; (iii) t h e r o l e o f user-nroducer committees f o r t h e d e t e r m i n a t i o n of n r i o r i t i e s ; ( i v ) a p p r o 9 r i a t e s t r u c t u r e s f o r i n t e g r a t i n g demographic dztr. i n t o ~ l n n n i n g ! a n d , ( v ) t h e t r a i n i n g of p o n u l a t i o n s c i e n t i s t s w i t h z knowledge o f t h e n l a n n i n a n r o c e s s . 23. A f t e r r e f l e c t i n g on t h e s e i s s u e s , t h e n e e t i n g d i r e c t e d t h a t t h e s e c r e t z - r i n t should t a k e n o t e of t h e n 3 i n t s r a i s e d r e g a r d i n g t h e n l a n n i n p n r o c e s s itrifl'incorpo- r a t e same i n t o apnro::riate s e c t i o n s of t h e r e v i s e d " ~ u i d e l i n e s " . I n t h i s r e g a r d , t h e meeting noted t h a t it would be n e r t i n e n t f o r t h o s e s e c t i o n s of t h e "Guidelinessq t o c o n s i d e r , a s w e l l , t h e iss11.e of what w m l d hanoen if t h e n l a n n i n e n r o c e s s i n t h e member S t a t e s were t o rzmain unchanged ( i . e . t h e h i s t o r i c a l s c e n a r i o ) a s

a g a i n s t a s i t u a t i o n i n which t h e n l a n n i n . ~ mechanisms wer? t o i r n ~ r o v e s u b s t a n t i a l l y ( i . e . t h e normative s c e n a r i o ) . The meeting d i r e c t e d th?.t. t h e "Guidelines" s h o u l d p r o v i d e h i n t s of nroceciure f o r both s c e n a r i o s .

S l

24.

The meetin& t h e n d i r e c t e d t h a t t h e reviser? ~ u i e e l i n e s " s h o u l d merge t h e c h a p t e r s on "Data" a n d "Frmework": t h e merged c h a p t e r should c o n t a i n t h e fol!.owing a c t i v i t i e s f o r i n t e g r a t i n g p o p u l a t i o n v a r i a b l e s i n devslopment n l n n n i n a :

( i ) An Assessment cf t h e denopranhic

---

s i t u a t i o n

-

2 5 . The f i r s t w t i v i t y towards making i n t e g r a t i o n a r e . % l i t y i s f o r n l a n n e r s t o , g e i n c o n f i d e a c e i n t h e i r a b i l i t y t o a n a l y z e o o n u l a t i o n develonment i n t e r r e l z t i o n s h i p s and t o begis t o u s e such i n f o n a t i o n i n t h e f o r m u l a t i o n of p o l i c i e s m d ?rograF;iles.

O p e r a t i o n a l l y , ' t h i s i m p l i e s ( i ) makiny, a c l e a r assessinent of t h e c o u n t r y ' s demo@%.- p h i c s i t u a t i o n ; and ( i i ) u s i n g e x i s t i n g i n f o r m d t i b n c h e n n e l s and mechanism t o e o s u r e t h a t , n o l i t i c i a n s , policy-makers and t h e p u b l i c a r e given more e d u c a t i o n on t h e dynamics of t h e coun-tryqs p o p u l e t i o n changes a s ~ 1 1 a s t h e im?a.ct of such c h ~ l g e s on c u r r e n t / f u t u r e develonment.

26. The d a t a / i n ' f o r n e t i o n a v a i l e b l e should a t t h i s p o i n t b e ufie'd t o n&e.-de.tailed p o g u l a t i o n e s t i m a t e s and p r o j e c t i o n s . The m a l y s i ' s o f such d a t a shouid r ' e l a t e b o t h t o t h e i n d i v i d u a l a n d household l e v e l s . The meetin,: s p e c i f i c a l l y d i r e c t e d t h a t

%ma. 2 1 of t h e Addendum (Document ~ ~ A / W / ~ ~ / 8 6 / 1 . 4 ( i i i ) Add.1) ^should be modifieli t o i n c l u d e d a t a on s p a t i a l . p o p u l s t i o n d i s t r i b u t i o n , age-sex c o n n o s i t i o n ; qroblem o f a g e i n g , d e ~ e n d e n c y r a t i o , economically a c t i v e n o p u l a t i o n , women And develovment &rid s o c i a l i n d i c a t o r s . There v z s need t o r e a r r a n g e t h e p z 2 g r a p h s t o e n s u r e flow.

( i i ) A s t u d y o f t h e socio-economic and dern~~~~~&jnterrelationshi~,s

27.

For t h e n e x t a c t i v i t y , t h e e s t i m a t e s ~ l n d ? r o , j e c t i o n s t h u s n r e ~ a r e d . should be t r a n s l a t e d i n t o esbimates of s o c i o - e c o n ~ m i c i n t e r r e l e t i m s h i i , r e q u i r e m e n t s . The later s h o u l d h i g h l i g h t t h e d a t a r e q p i r e d as w e l l as t h e r e s e a r c h needed. The

ss G u i d e l i n e s " should i d e n t i f y t h e t h r e e i m p o i t a n t r e s e e r c b . a c t i v i t i e s r e q u i r e d f o r i n t e g r a t e d p l a n n i n g 'namely prenarinsi e s t i m a t e s znc? p r o j e c t i o n s of demogranhic l e v e l s and t r e n d s ; a s c e r t a i n i n g t h e natur;..and s t r e n g t h of demoi.ranhic and &evelo;?- ment i n t e r a c t i o n s ; a n d , conductinp; v a r i ~ u s f o n s o f p o l i c y ?tno.l?rs<.s.

ECA/hF/POP/86/1.4 ( i i i ) Page 8

28. In t h e view of t h e meet.ina, t h e n r o n ~ s n l is t o d i s s e m i n l t e t h e informnhicn on t h e

relations hi?^

q r a d u a l l y . As confidence i s z a i n e d i n a n a l g z i n ~ , a t f i r s t , a l i n i ' t e d s u b s e t of oogu.lation

-

develo?ment r e l a t i o n s h i p s , t h e range of v a r i a b l e s t o be c o n s i d e r e d can t h e n be eexnnd.e8. S i m u l t m e o u s l y , q u a n t i t a t i v e i n d i c a t o r s of c r i t i c . e . l . v s r i a h l e s can be s p e c i f i e d . s o t h z t d a t a ~ d e g u a c y can he a s s e s s e d and d s t a c o l l e c t i o n can be more systema.tical1-? ~ l s n n e d . I n t h i s c o n t e x t , t h e r e v i l l be need t o - determine t h e socio-econonic c o r r e l a t e s and conseq:uenees of demoqranhic change.,. ... This i m o l i 2 s a review of socio--economic and demo.~raohic in d i c s k o r s currently-:available t o determine v h e t h e r a more refined. s e t ( i d e v e l o m e n t i n d i c a t o r s : t h a t nre oopul8,tion denominated) can be c o n s t r u c t e d accorc7.ing t o t h e manner that dpvelopnent ob,jectives a r e s n e c i f i e d .

. . .

. . : . . . : . ,

6ii ), Co$_s_tr~c_t~n&& ~ ~ i ~ - - ~ _ ~ ~ ? ~ ? & ~ c - . ~ ~ m o ~ : ~ . ~ & . i . f ~ . m ~ ~ ~ ~ , .,

29. The meet5n&'tken noted t h a t t h e next a c t i v i t y , a socio-.economic demoaraphic

model.needs t o be: c o n s t r u c t e 6 t o t e s t t h n q u a n t i t a t i v e . s i g n i f i c a n c e of S o ~ i a - e c o n ~ m i ~ :

. . demographic r e l a t i o n s h i p s i n a c o u n t r y - s g e c i f i c se-tting. The r e s u l t s ~ o f t h e s e ^{" '} t e s t s should provide t h e needed requirements i n n o l i c y a n r j y s i s , The s a i d model should s t a r t o u t i n i t i a l l y ?.s "smalls'

reflect in^

t h e a b i l i t y of n l a n n e r s t o handle each s t a g e of t h e i n t e g r a t i o n p r o c e s s c o n f i d e n t l y . T h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f t h e modol should i n v o l v e p l a n n e r s st t h e e a r l y and l a t e r strtges of c o n s t r u c t i o n . Thev can t h e n l e a r n t o u s e t h e model f o r n o l i c y a n a l y s i s once it i s completed and t h e most p r e s s i n g i s s u e s w i t h which t h e y a r e c u r r e n t l y confrontii6 can be addrkssed ? f f e c t i - v e l y by the.mode1. A s new d a t a and information on p j p u l n t i o n develiyment i n t e r - r e l z t i o n s h i ? s become a v a i l a b l e ? both t h e c o n c e ~ t u a l i z a t i o n and modelling a c t i v i t i e s can be r e f i n e d and expanded a c c o r d i n g l y .

30. A l t h o u ~ h t h e r e was'no consensus on t h e rclle of n o d e l l i n g , t h e meeting noted.

t h a t models were u s e f u l ( i ) a s t o o l s i n d a t a o r o c e s s i n g ; ( i i ) a s t o o l s f o r

? r e s e n t i n g t h e d a t a t o gnverniients; ( i i i ) a s a n a l y t i c a l tools; (iv) 8 s t o o l s f o r s e n s i t i z i n g t h e v a r i o u s l e v e l s of d e c i s i o n makers and t e c h n i c i a . n s i n t e r m s : o f

understan.ding t h e i n t e r s e c t o r r s l linkrtqes. Dzsnite t 4 2 w u s e s . t h e ' n e e t i & f e l t t h a t . t h e r e w?s need f o r c a r e t & i r u s n f o r n l w n i n ? n w t i c u l ? r l v w i t h r e s n e c t t - , t h e ua:l~rlyinc assumntions:ana. t h e d a t a c o n s t r a i n t s . The meeting t h e n d i r e c t e d t h a t t h e "C-uide1ines"'shoula

t i )

s t r e s s t h e f a c t thtat t h e a o d e l s a r e c o u n t r r srzecific and should n o t b e transplantecl from one situ,g.tion/ccuntry t o m o t h e r ; and ( i i ! a c c o r d i n g l y , c a u t i o n member S t a t e s on t h e imnortance ts be a t t a c h e d t o modelling i n t h e planning process.

31. Based on an a n a l y s i s of t h e i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s between p o p u l s t i o n on t h e one hand end s o c i o economic v a r i a b l e s , on t h e o t h e r , t h e development o b j e c t i v e s should be s p e c i f i e d . I n d e f i n i n g t h e s e o b , i e c t i v e s , t h e "C-uideliness' should s t r e s s t h e u s e of t h e major o r i e n t a t i o n s of concern t o t h e c o u n t r y ; t h e o b j e c t i v e s should f o c u s on t h e s e concerns t h a t a r e o f p r i o r i t y .

( v ) I n t e g r a t i o n of o o m l a t i o n ' n o l i c i e s

-

in@-_$~EKE&OpPEe&

32. The " ~ u i d e l i n e s " should f i r s t d e f i n e t h e o l a n p r i o r i t i e s a s a prelude t o determining how p o p u l a t i o n v a r i a b l e s a f f e c t t h e s e p r i o r i t y concerns; t h e r e a f t e r it should stress t h e f a c t t h a t t h e ? o l i c i e s adooted by menber S t a t e s i n t h i s R g a r d should be developed t o meet t h e s e concerns.

I n s t i t u t i o n a l arrangements

! v i )

33. The " ~ u i d e l i n e s ' ~ should s t r e s s t b e need f o r two u n i t s t o handle t h e i n t q r a t i o n p r o c e s s

-

a Data u n i t and a P o l i c y U n i t . The Data U n i t would be r e s p o n s i b l e for t h e c o l l e c t i o n , a n a l y s i s and use of demogrrtnhic d a t a j.n t h e pla.nning p r o c e s s . The P o l i c y Unit would be res,wnsi.ble f o r a s s i s t i n g i n t h e formulation of P o ~ u l a t i o n p o l i c i e s and i n t h e development of implementation s t r a t e g i e s t o achieve t h e demo- g r a p h i c o b j e c t i v e s .

34. I n a d d i t i o n , t h e "Guidelines?' should s o e l l o u t c a r e f u l l y t h e l o c a t i o n of each u n i t , t h e i r l i n k ~ g e s t o o t h e r p l a n n i n g - r e l a t e d u n i t s e o r z a n i z a t i o n a l S t r u c t U r e ) , t h e r e q u i r e d means f o r t h e i r o p e r a t i o n (e.,?. persoan91 .- how should t h e y b e s t a f f e d ) , K l e i r needs ( e . ~ . d a t a bank, .documentation c e n t r e and needed computer f a c i l i t i e s ) , how i n t e r n a t i o n a l a s s i s t a n c e c b be 3rovidtid

'for

t h e i r e s t a b l i s h m e n t , an& t h e n?.ture of government mandate f o r t h e s e u n i t s . The " h i d e i i n e s " should s t r e s s t h ? desj.de.- r a t w o f t h e independent s t a t u s of t h e two u n i t s so -ths.t t h e y would be a b l e t o c o o r d i n a t e t h e i n t e g r a t i o n p r o c e s s .

35. The "Guidelines" should s t r e s s t h e f a c t t h a t t h e main aim of t r a i n i n s : ac.tivi-.

t i e s i n t h i s c o n t e x t should be an i n t e r d i s c i p l i n a r y o r i e n t a t i o n . This i n n l i e s t h e development of c a o a b i l i t i e s f o r understandinp i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i o s , f o r p r o j e c t i n g p o p u l a t i o n kro&h, e v a l u a t i n g i t s s o c i a l and economic consequences and c o m u n i c a t i n g r c s e a r c h r e s u l t s t o p l a n n e r s rmd policy-mnkers.

. .

T i

3 6 , The t y p e s of t r a i n i n g ob.jectives t o be ennhasized i n t h e ~ u i d e l i n e s " should i n c l u d e ( i ) broadening knowledge amone n a t i o n a l a n d r e g i o n a l p l a n n e r s about p0pul.z- tion-development i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s ; ( i i ) i?nproving t h e i r t e c h n i c a l s k i l l s ; (iii) c r e a t i n g a c o r e group of n a t i o n a l and r e ~ i o n a l t r t t i n e r s f o r i n t e q r r t t e d nlaniling'; and

( i v ) p r e p a r i n g i n s t r u c t i o n a l m a t e r i a l s f o r such t r a i n i n g .

37. T%e "Guidelinesis should a l s o emnhasize t h a t s p e c i f i c t p e s of t r a i n i n g were neeiled. f o r ( i ) policy-makers, m i n i s t e r s , p a r l i a m e n t a r i a n s and s i m i l a r o f f i c i a l s vho would b e s t b e reached through conferences o,nd seminars; ( i i ) p r o f e s s i o n a l s , t e c h n i - c i a n s and academics rrho wou3.d r e q u i r e lonfi term c o u r s e s g and, ( i i i . ) o t h e r middle- l e v e l o f f i c i a l s who would b e s t b e reached t h r o w h formal short-term c o u r s e s m d . work-,

shops.

E C A / ~ P / P O D / ~ ~ ~ / ~

. 4

( i i i ) Paae 1 0

( v i i i ) Informetion d i s s e m i n a t i o n .-

38. The %uidelines'' should h i g h l i , q h t t h a t success i n i n t e e r a t i n g p o p u l a t i o n v a r i a b l e s i n t o development planning depends upon c r e a t i n g .an awareness o f . _{: .} , .

demographic oroblems at d i f f e r e n t l e v e l s o f d e c i s i o n - - m a k i n g , o a r t i c i i l n . r l v a t

l e v e l s d e a l i n n w i t h t h e a l l o c a t i o n o f r e s o u r c e s t o p o p u l a t i o n - r e l a t e d ? r o g r m e s ( e . a f a m i l y p l a n n i n g ) . A menber S t a t e w i l l have given p r i o r i t y t o ?opul.o.t.ion p o l i c i e s once acrareness of p o o u l a t i o n - r e l a t e d nroblems e x i s t s a t t h e h i g h e s t decision--rnalkinq l e v e l s .

39. The"GuidelinesFP should. t h e r e f o r e s t r e s s t h e need f o r a hiirh p r i o r i t y t o be given t o p r o a r a m e s f o r r a i s i n q awareness of t h e importance of ~ o p u l a t i o n p o l i c i e s as components o f o v e r s l l develonment u o l i c i e s . I n t h i s regard. it should

suggest t h a t systems of i n f o r m a t i o n , education and communication ( IEC be developed t o support . a c t i v i t i e s f o r p o o u l a t i o n and development. The r o l e of POPIN-Africa was p e r t i n e n t Here and a c c o r d i n l y , t h e " ~ u i d e l i n e s " should &raw on z n n r o o r i a t e

IEC procedures a s provided by POPIN-Af.' r l c a .

SESSION TIinEE

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^{- -. . . . -.}

. .

40. Introducing t h i s agenda i t e m , a rem-esentative of t h e s e c r e t a r i a t infornee.

t h e meeting t h a t t h e o v e r a l l q o a l of a g r i c u l t u r a l planning i s t o 1 . a ~ out r a t i o n a l l y t h e use of p u b l i c funds a,nd means i n support of a g r i c u l t u r a l develo?nent. The o t h e r r e l a t e d g o a l s , he added, i n c l u d e d ( i ) an,alysis of p r o d u c t i o n and t r a d e p o l i c i e s ; and, (ii ) c o n s i d e r a t i o n s of l a n d a v a i l a b i l i t y rind u s e , t e n u r e systems, a g r a r i a n s t r u c t u r e s , ~ r o d u c t i v i t y / t e c h n o l o p t v , and food s e c u r i t y .

, , . .

41. The r e n r e s e n t a t i v e f u r t h e r informed t h e meeting t h a t hecxuse t h e r e rras a gap between t h e r a t e s of f o o d p r o d u c t i o n and of n o n u l a t i o n g r o w t h i n t h e member S t a t e s , t h e main t h r u s t of p o p u l a t i o n and a g r i c u l t u r a l planning i s t o determine o o l i c i e s f o r b r i d g i n g t h e qa.p between. t h e c o u n t r y ' s n o t e n t i a l i t i e s and requirements. H e t h e n r e f e r r e d t o ( i ) t h e o t h e r p r i o r i t y a r e a s given i n Peraaraph 142 of t h e Zero draft of t h e Background Document f o r t h e meeting ( E C A / ~ J P / P O P / ~ ~ / ~ . ~ ( i i i ) ; ( i i ) t h e methodologies f o r determining t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l and n o n - a g r i c u l t u r a l l8,bour f o r c e a s p r e s e n t e z i n Paragranhs 150

-

163 of t h e sane Background Document: and,.

(iii) t h e sugRested s t r a t e g i e s f o r t a c k l i n g t h e i d e n t i f i e c ? u r o h l e n &as a s p r e s e n - t e d i n Paragraph 143 o f t h e s ~ m e Background Document.

42. Based. on t h e f o r e g o i n g , t h e r e o r e s e n t a t i v e t h e n r e q u e s t e d t h e meeting t o f o c u s on ( i ) - t h e r ' e l a t i v e adequacy of t h e i d e n t i f i e d . p r i o r i t y a r e a s i n terms of providing h i n t s o n the: development o b j e c t i v e s of p o n u l a t i o n and ~ ~ r i c u l t u r a l planning i n t h e " G i h e l i n e s c i ; ( i i ) t h e adequacy of t h e methods i n d i c a t e d a s

franework f o r p o p u l a t i o n and a g r i c u l t u r a l planning i n r e l a t i o n t o t h e "GuidelinesP1;

and, ( i i i ) t h e o o l i c i e s and nroarmmes f o r a t t a i n i n g t h e i n d i c a t e d development o b j e c t i v e s .

43.

- I n o r d e r t o fodus d i s c u s s i o n on t h e theme of P o p u l a t i o n and a g r i c u l t u r a l p l a n n i n g , t h e d i s c u s s a n t n d e d t h a t a l t h o u g h member S t a t e s have been involved

i n a g r i c u l t u r a l s e c t o r p l a n n i n g s i n c e t h e 1 9 6 0 s , t h e r e s t i l l e x i s t e d gaps between t h e i r food s u p l i e s and demands e i t h e r due t o t h e s e t t i n g of wrong t a r g e t s o r t o t h e p l a n n i n g models th6.t were borrowed from o u t s i d e . The l a t e r f o r him, tended t o be l a b o u r - s w i n g and hence were i r r e l e v a n t and i n , i u r i o u s t o member S t a t e s i n terms of food s h o r t a g e s and unemnloyment which n r e becoming i n c r e a s i n g l y &anageable; r u r a l ~ o a u l a t i o n cannot a d e q u a t e l y be absorbed by urban i n d u s t r i a l development. The r e s u l t i n g dilema has been s e r i o u s s o c i a l , p o l i t i c a l and economic problems. For him a l s o , a r e o r i e n t a t i o n w a s needed s o t h a t t h e s e s t r a t e g i e s a r e c o n c e n t r a t e d on t h e a v a i l a b l e r e s o u r c e s of n o p u l a t i o n , l a n d and o t h e r n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s i n t h e member S t a t e s ; t h e p l a n n i n g t e c h n i o u e s t o be adopted should f o c u s on s e l f - . s u s t a i n e d d e v e l o ~ e n t based on t h o s e r e s o u r c e s .

44.

Given t h e c u r r e n t p o p u l a t i o n e x n l o i s i o n and t h e dependence of a l a r g e pro,wr- t i o n of t h e g o ~ u l a t i o n on a g r i c u l t u r e f o r l i v e h o o d a s w e l l es t h e l o w ' l e v e l of i n c r e a s e i n employment o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n i n d u s t r y , t h e d i s c u s s a n t f u r t h e r noted t h a t t h e most important s i n g l e f 8 c t o r t o e n a b l e member,States absorb t h e growing l a b o u r f o r c e h t o nrorluctive einploment, a t p r e s e n t l e v e l of technology, i s t h e a g r i c i l l t u r e s e c t o r . S o l u t i o n s t o r u r a l n o v e r t y must t h e r e f o r e be sought p r i m a r i l y i n t h e r u r a l economv i t s e l f . Hence t h e i m ~ e r n t i v e need t o improve t h e e f f i c i e n c y rind l a b o u r a b s o r n t i o n c e p a c i t y of t h e rurxl. s e c t o r . I n t h i s r e g a r d , he observed t h a t t h e s p e c i f i c v a r i a b l e s t o b e c o n s i d e r e d i n t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l ple.nning p r o c e s s i n c l u d e p h y s i c e l r e s o u r c e s a v a i l a b l e i l a n d , wnter I

,

s o i l s , e t c . )

,

t r e n d s i n a g r i c u l t u r e

p r o d u c t i o n , i m p o r t s , e x p o r t s , i n n u t s , oroducer n r i c e s

,

e t c )

,

investment i n a g r i c u l t u r e , d e m a ~ d and supply s i t u a t i o n s , r u r a l / u r b a n wages and t a x e s cmd tarp;e.ts of t h e o t h e r s e c t o r s of t h e economy.

45.

'.?asad o,n t h e r e s u l t i n g . d i s c u s s i o n , t h e meeting d i r e c t e d t h z t t h e ~ & d e l i n e s ' ' ,I

should ( i ) d q f i n e t h e food problem a s it e x i s t s i n t h e nember S t a t e s

-

m ~ l n u t r i t i o n , u n d e r n o u r i s . b e n t and food d e f i c i e n c i e s ; ( i i ) e n a b l e member S t a t e s d e t e r n i n e t h e i r p a t t e r n and l e v e l of rood consunntion r e l a t i v e t o s t a n d a r d food i n t + k e ' b a s e d on n u t r i t i o n a l needs a s w e l l a s t h e i r "tarpet consumption l e v e l s " and t h e t o t a l food tonage r e q u i r e d ; (iii ). d e f i n e p o l i c i e s on food p r o d u c t i o n and d i s t r i b u t i o n i n r e l a t i o n t q t h e d i s a d k n t a s e d areas and s o c i o economic groups; and, ( i v ) e n a b l e nenber S t a t e s develo6 the, a a t a base r e q u i r e d f o r t h e a n a l y s i s i n d i c a t e d . S u c h a d a t a b a s e should cover d&ographic data.

-.

p o p u l a t i o n s i z e , zge-sex s t r u c t u r e , r u r a l - urban d i s t r i b u t i o n , e t c , ; food i n t a k e and s t a t e of n u t r i t i o n ; food s u p n l i e s / n r o d u c -

t i o n ? and i m p o r t s ; and, e c o l o g i c a l a r e a s .

.

^.

4 6 .

I n t h e view of t h e m e e t i n g , t h e "Guidelines" should t a k e t h e f o r e g o i n g

c o m $ l e x i t i e s i n t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n s o a s t o n r o v i d e t h e elements r e q u i r e d f o r a g r i c u l - t u r d p l a n n i n g . R e s i d e s , it should a l s o imnrove on t h e aevelopqent o b j e c t i v e s of a g r i c u l t u r a l planning and should n q t e t h z t ( i ) food c o n s w t i o n n n t t e r n s change as between urban and r u r a l -.reas: ( i i ) t h e l a b o u r f o r c e t h z t produces food i s d i f f e r e n t from t h e l a b o u r f o r c e r e q u i r e d ' f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i o n ; ( i i i ) some q u m t i t y of food w i l l have t o b e imaorted t o s m p l % m e n t d - i f f e r e n t i a l t a s t e s of

t h e p e o p l e ; a n d , ( i v ) t h e r e i s t h e need, a s w e l l , t o l o o k ,at t h e d i f f e r e n t n r o d u c t i o n zones.

E ~ A / \ P / P o P / ~ ~ / ~ . (iii ) Page 1 2

47.

Regarding m l i c i e s and programmes of agricultur.21 p l a n n i n g t h e meeting d i r e c t e d t h a t . t h e " ~ u i d e l i n e s " should focus on t h e oroblem of i n c r e a s e d a g r i c u l - tural production vis-.?L-vis .hi,a;h p o p u l a t i o n growth r a t e . I n t h e n a s t , member S t a t e s ha.d tended. t o o v e r e m p h a s i z e cash .cronninr: because of f o r e i g n exchan~;e probLems. The " G ~ i d e l i n e s ' ~ should r a i s e t h e a u e s t i o n of t h e e x t e n t t o which . .

member S t s t e s had considered a s adequate t h e l a n d which t h e y a l l o c a t e d t o food production v i s - & v i s cash c r o ~ 7 i n g as w e l l as what t h e y obtained i n r e t u r n r e l a t i v e t o t h e i r f o r e i e n exchange requirements. I n - a d d i t i o n , t h e "Guidelines"

should ( i ) u r ~ e member S t a t e s t o c o n s i d e r not o n l y food d i s t r i b u t i o n i n t h e ^{. ~} c o u n t r y , b u t a l s o i n t e r - r e g i o n a l food. production:, (ii) r a i s e i s s u e s of food s e c u r i t y and s t o r a g e i n terms of providing f o r t h e l e a n y e a r s a s w e l l a s of t h e r e l a t i o n s h i v between r a i n f e d and t h e i r r i g a t i o n schemes; ( i i l l ~ t h e need t o provide more land f o r a g r i c u l t u r e , t o m o t i v a t e producers through more f a v o u r a b l e p r i c e s , and t o q u a n t i f y t h e r o l e of women i n t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l s e c t o r ; ( i v )

s t a b i l i z e t h e supnly systems d u r i n g t h e n l a n n e r i o d ; ( v ) ensure . t c c e s s i b i l i t y of t h e s u p p l i e s of nroduction both i n terms of n h y s i c d i n f r a s t r u c t u r e and

purchasing Dower; and, ( v i ) ' f o c u s on s t r a t e g i e s which can lower f e r t i l i t y l e v e l s i n r e l a t i o n t o food p r o d u c t i o n .

SESSION FOUR

48- A r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f H a b i t a t introduced t h i s agenda item and observed t h a t ( i ) t h e housing problem should be viewed from t h e broader p e r s p e c t i v e of human s e t t l e m e n t of which housing was a . c o m ~ o n e n t ( i i ) t h e g o a l of human s e t t l e m e n t w a s t o imnrove t h e q u a l i t y of l i f e : ( i i i ) t h e d e f i n i t i o n of u r b m a r e a was indeed problematic; ( i v ) .among t h e s e v e r a l i n d i c a t o r s of human s e t t l e m e n t , t h e most

, ,

important w a s n a t i o n a l e s t i m a t e s of housin- needs' f o r varying. p e r i o d s ; and, ( v ) t h e r e a r e s e v e r a l methods f o r e s t i m a t i n g housing r e a u i r e m e n t s .

49. The ~ a b i t a t r e G r e s e n t a t i v e f u r t h e r observed t h a t t h e method ridonted i n e s t i m a t i n g housina req.uirements should be anqlic,%ble t o c o n d i t i o n s i n t h e member S t a t e s given t h e d a t a c o n s t r a i n t s . He a l s o u o i n t e d ~ u t t h e e f f e c t of t h i s d e a r t h of d a t a on s t u d i e s rerrarding human s e t t l e m e n t s and housing i n t h e ree;ion. For _{, .} him, s i n c e housing i s a b a s i c h m a n need., e s t i m s t e s of housing needs t h e t t a k e i n t o account t h e n r e s e n t unacceptable s i t u a t i o n were of p a r m o u n t importance.

50. I n t h e d i s c u s s i o n t h a t followed., t h e imnwtance of housinp, snd human s e t t l e - ment p l a n n i n g was recognized and a.uestiins were r a i s e d on ( i ) how t h e r a n i d r a t e of p p u l a t i o n ~ r o w t h i n : q e n e r d and t h % t i n u r b a n ' k r e a s i n p a r t i c u l a r could b e . ^{' ,} i n t e g r a t e d i n t h e models f o r estimn.tine; housinq needs; and ( i i ) how t h e propose'd

~ r o j e c t i o n models would t a k e c a r e of changes i n f e r t i l i t y , mort.&ity and m i g r a t i o n as w e l l a s m a r i t a l s t a t u s d i s t r i b u t i o n s and household formations.. The meeting a l s o addressed t h e qroblem ot' expansion of urban a r e a s i n t o t h e surrounding country s i d e of t h e member S t a t e s r e s u l t i n g i n t h e r m i d grorrth of urban a r e a s . It was n o t e d . ^' t h a t t h i s nhenomenon had d i f f e r e n t i r n n l i c a t i o n s r e l a t i v e t o t h o s e occasioned b y . ^. t h e incree.se i n n o p u l e t i o n d e n s i t y of e x i s t i n g urban l o c a l i t i e s .

51. It was a l s o p o i n t e d o u t t h a t a more conprehensive l i s t of d a t c r e q u i r e d f o r e s t i m a t i n g f u t u r e housina needs had been i n d i c a t e d i n t h e clmors i r e s e n t e ~ .at t h e Regional T r a i n i n g \~iorkshop on demogrmhic E s t i m a t e s and p r o j e c t i o n s h e l i a t R I P S , Accra, i n J u l y 1985. I n t h i s connection it was n o t e a t h a t t h o rnemher S t a t e s have i n c l u d e d s e v e r a l c p e s t i o n s on houzeholds and housing i n t h e i r l a t e s t c"nsuses b u t t h a t e v a l u a t i o n and a n a l y s i s of t h e s e d a t a had n o t been .%s com.peh!?n- s i v e a s would have. been d e s i r e d . I n terms of t h e .data. b a s e r e q u i r e d . , f o r estima- t i n g housi.ng needs, t h e meetine t h m d i r e c t e d t h a t t h e " ~ u i d e l i n e s " should h i g h l i g h t t h e f a c t t h a t t h o ~ r o b l e m was n o t t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y of n e r t i x n t date.

b u t i n s u f f i c i e n t a n a l y s i s of t h e a v a i l a b l e d a t a i n a form r e q u i r e d f o r t h e e s t i n a - t i o n . The "Guidelines" should t h e r e f o r e reconment: increaser1 e f f o r t t o zmol.?rse d a t a on %ouseholdsfPin t h e mezber S t ~ t e s .

52. The meeting however s t r e s s e d t h a t t h e ~ u i d e l i n e s " 17 should emnhasize t h e f a c t t h a t t h e household concent was d i f - r i c u l t t o comnrehend. Accordingly, it should emohasize t h e need f o r more ~ r a c . t i c a 1 methods f o r e s t i n s t i n g housing needs o t h e r t h a n t h o s e t h a t denenri on t h e numher of households.

53. Regarding p o l i c i e s , t h e n e e t i n a S i r e c t e d t h a t t h e "Guic?elinesV s h o u l d s t r e s s t h e f a c t t h a t ( i ) t h e imbalance between t h e a v a i l i ~ b i l i t y .and t h e nee& f o r housing has t o be met; (ii) urban and r u r a l housing requirements were d i f f e r e n t .xad hence t h e r e was g r e a t e r need f o r environmental e n g i n e e r i n g i n t h e r u r a l a r e a s ; ( i i j . ) t h e r e v7as need t o f o r m u l a t e a r e c o m ~ e n d a t i o n f o r member S t S t e s t o show g r e a t e r concern r e g a r d i n g housing needs t a k i n l : account of vary in^ f m i l v s i z e s ; ( i v ) more l a n d should be provided. f o r t h e n o o r ; ( v ) t h e rul.es and r e q u l a t i o n s of en-9-i- ronmental d e s i g n should be s n e c i f i e d ; ( v i ) t h e r e was need f o r a n n r o n r i a t e b u i l - ding r e g u l a t i o n s and d e s i g n s a s w e l l a s f o r r e s e a r c h i n t o t h e u s e of l o c a l m a t e r i a l s l and, ( v i i ) r e s o u r c e s f o r n e e t i n q housin& needs should be mobilized through p e r s o n a l e f f o r t , s e l f - h e l p schenes and by t h e n u b l i c s e c t o r ,

SESSION PIYE

D o n u l a t i o n and Eriucational. $anninc

54. I n i n t r o c l w i n g t h i s apende i t e m , a r e p r e s e n t a t i v e of t h e s e c r e t 3 r i a t noted.

t h a t ( i ) e d u c a t i o n i s a fund.ment.tl c o r r e l s . t e of n a t i o n a l d e v e l o m e n t ; (ii ) it seems a s a basj.c need b y a l l o w i n c ! 3 c o n l e t o a c q u i r e n bronr: base of Bnovledge, a t t i t u d e , . v a l u e s and s k i l l s on which t h e y can b u i l d i n L % t e r l i f e , rsspond t o new n n q o r t u n i t i e s , a d j u s t t o s o c i a l and c u l t u r a l c h a n ~ e s and. y z t i c i i ) e . t e i n p o l i t i C 8 1 c u l t u r a l and socia.1 a c t i v i t i e s ; (iii) it seems s l s o a s a !nenns of meeting, o t h e r b a s i c human needs; and, ( i v ) it i n f l u e n c e s and i s i n f l u e n c e d by

a c c e s s t o o t h e r b z s i c needs such a s n u t r i t i o n , s a f e d r i n k i n s w a t e r , h e a l t h , e t c . 55. The r e p r e s e n t a t i v e f u r t h e r i n d i c a t e d t h a t e d u c a t i o n a l n l a n n e r s i n t h e member S t a t e s a r e caught between expandiny: e n r o l m e n t t o meet i n c r e a s i n g demand, and changing t h e c h a r a c t e r of e d u c a t i o n t o mzke it more r e s n o n s i v e t o t h e needs o f t h e p o v d l s t i o n . For h i m , on t h e one hand s c h o o l enrolment has been i n c r e a s i n g i n r e c e n t y e a r s due p r i m a r i l y t o z r a n i d l y growing p o n u l a t i o n , , governments'

n r o g r e s s i v e e d u c a t i o n a l v C L i c i e s and i n c r e a s e d s o c i a l awareness. On t h e o t h e r

hand, he c o n t i n u e d , o u t p u t s from t h e system a c q u i r e s k i l l s and h o w l e d g e t h a t a r e n o t i n denand by t h e l a b o u r m a r k e t . The r e p r e s e n t a t d v e t h e r e f o r e s u g g e s t e d t h a t t h e 'sGuidelinesiP should r e f l e c t t h e s e two i s s u e s w i t h t h e aim o f s t r s s s i n g t h e need f o r c l o s e r c o o y e r ~ t i o n between e d u c a t i o n a l p l a n n z r s and demograuhers.

56.

I n t h i s r e g a r d h e h i g h l i i h t e d t h o s e k e y c o m p o ~ e n t s i n ' e d u c a t i o n a l p l u m i n g which are i n f l u e n c e d by demographic v a r i a b l e s . These i n c l u d e ; n l a n n i n g and programming e d u c a t i o n a l c o n t e n t , f o c u s and f a c i l i t i e s . Fundamental t o t h i s i s t h e d e t e r m i n a t i o n o f - o b . j ' ~ c t i v e s , t a r g e t s and geographic l o c a . t i o n of educs.tiona1 ^'' f a c i l i t i e s . The f i n a l d e c i s i o n on each o f t h e s e vould deoend on t h e composition, s t r u c t u r e and d i s t r i b u t i o n of t h e a o n u l a t i o n .

57. I n o r d e r t o f o c u s t h e d i s c u s s i o n , t h e r e n r e s e n t a t i v e u r ~ e d t h e meeting t o c o n c e n t r a t e on i s s u e s t h a t would h i i z h l i ~ h t t h e i n t e r - . r e l a t i o n s h i n hetween e d u c a t i o - n a l n o p u l a t i o n and how t h e s e r e l a t e t o n o ~ u l a t i o n management keening i n mind t h e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s , t h e d e l i v e r y n r o c e s s , t h e form and t h e i n n a c t o f one on t h e o t h e r . IJe a l s o u r s e d t h e e x p e r t s ( i ) t o review t h e f o r e c a s t i n g model n r e s e n t e d i n t h e "Guidelines" w i t h a vie!? t o d e t e m i n i n p . i t s r e l e v a n c e and s t r e n e t h e n i n $ , if n e c e s s a r y , i t s c o n t e n t s b y i d e n t i f y i n g t h e r e q u i r e d indenendent v a r i a b l e s w i t h demograuhic i m p l i c a t i o n s and any a s s o c i a t e d nroblems! a n d , ( t i ) t o c o n s i d e r a ~ y r e s u l t i n g p l i c y i s s u e s f o r i n c o r n o r a t i o n i n t h e %uideli.nes".

58. From t h e d i s c u s s i o n , t h e meeting observed t h a t t h e f i r s t n a r t of t h e ,

"Guidelines" should. i n c o r p o r a t e t h e f o r e g o i n p i d e a s z s e b a s i s f o r ~ e n e r a t i n g development o b j e c t i v e s f o r e d u c n t i o n d ~ l a n n i n g . I n a d d i t i o n , t h e s c o w o f educa- t i o n p l a n n i n g ( f o r m a l , non-formal, d e l i v e r y n r o c c s s znd i m a c t ) a s w e l l a s t h e form of e d u c a t i o n a l p l a n n i n g and how t h e % i s s u e s r e l a t e t o p o n u l a t i o n oro&rammes should be i n c l u d e d .

5 9 I n t h e view of t h e m e e t i n g , i n o r d e r t o e v o l v e development o b . j e c t i v e s and r e l a t e d p o l i c i e s and p r o g r m e s f o r t h e e d u c a t i o n a l s e c t o r , t h i s f i r s t s e c t i o n o f t h e "Guideliness' s h o u l d d e a l w i t h t h e i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s between n o n u l a t i o n and e d u c a t i o n . The a d d i t i o n a l i s s u e s t o be i n c l u d e d s h o u l d be (i) t h e i n t e r n a l

i n e f f i c i e n c i e s i n t h e e d u c a t i o n a l system ( e . f i how u s e f u l a r e t h e s k i l l s t h a t a r e t a u g h t ) ; ( i i ) t h e p o l i c i e s d i r e c t e d t o ? a r t i c u l a r disadvmtrtged ,grouDs such as t h e g i r l s ( t h e i r enrolment anti z t t r i t i o n r a t e ) ; (iii) improvement i n t h e s t a t u s of women; ( i v ) i n t e g r a t i o n of n o ? u l a t i o n i n school s y l l a b u s e s , a n d , ( v ) a s t r e s s on t h e r o l e of e d u c a t i o n i n d i s s e m i n a t i n g o o n u l a t i o n informn.tion.

60. Regardinn o o l i c i e s d i r e c t e d a t t h e g i r l s , t h e mee-tlnr noteri t h a t educe.tion can have a stronri impact on demogrenhic b e h a v i o u r , includinsz f e r t i l i t y l e v e l s , i n f a n t m o r t e l i t y r a t e s and even m i g r a t i o n p a t t e r n s . E&uc?tion and f e r t i l i t y a r e c o n s i s t e n t l y r e l a t e d i n a c u r v i l i n e a r manner i n member S t a t e s . F e r t i l i t y i s u s u a l l y h i g h among women w i t h no e d u c a t i o n . Wowever, it i s u s u a l l v even h i g h e r among women w i t h some ?rimnrv e d u c a t i o n . Some primary e d u c a t i o n l o a d s t o b e t t e r h e a l t h and h v g i e n i c p r a c t i c e s %monp. women, meaning t h a t ,a h i p h n r w o n o r t i o n o f p r e g n a n c i e s a r e s u c c e s z f u l l v c a r r i e d t o term. It a l s o t e n d s t o d t e r t r a d i t i o n a l p r a c t i c e s which d e p r e s s e d f e r t i l i t y , such a s nrolonged b r e a s t f e e d i n ? o r a l e n g t h y p e r i o d of s e x u a l a b s t i n e n c e f o l l o w i n g c h i l d b i r t h . Sowever, some nrimnrv e d u c a t i o n does l i t t l e t o change b a s i c a t t i t u d e s towarcls l a r g e P m i l i e s i n most member S t z t e s . Only women who have comf&eted t h e nrimarv and usua1l:r t h e j u n i o r s e c o n d a r y c y c l e show evidence of lower F e r t i l i t y t h a n women w i t h sone ~ r i m a r y e d u c a t i o n . Women who r e c e i v e secondary nnd post-..secondary e d u c % t i o n shoir n r o g r e s s i v e l y lower f e r t i l i t y .

61, The second n a r t o f t h e " G u i 8 e l i n ~ s " should focus on node1.s f o r t h e f o r n c s s t i n n of e d u c $ c i o n a l r e n u i r e m e n t s snd. s u m l i e s ^-.? v r l l .-.s s t r e s s t h e i r r e l e v a n c e . c o n t e n t and t h e indeoenrlent v a r i ~ . h l e s r e q i u i r e d r me meetinp aqree?.

t h a t t h e mndels should go beyond nrimal-J e d u c a t i o n . On t h e r e l e v a n c e o f t h e models m d i n o r d e r t o naint?.in m?.lytj.cql bal.~.nce hntw%n thr. d i f f e r e n t s e c t i o n s (on mocle~s) o f t k s ' G i ~ i d ? l i v s ' i . t h o m.n(iel , ? m o s i t i o r l , t h e t!n.t-. requ;r?d and t h e

u n d n r l v i n p a s s u c n t i o n s shnul..i he c a r e f u l l y summarizeii ^h? the s c c r @ t a r i s . t and.

a ~ > r o n r i ~ , t n s n u r c n r e f x e n c e s of d c t s i l s on t % e niode1.s he i n d i c a t ~ d Tnd s t s q s t a k e n t,o s n s u r ? t h a t -th? l a t t e r ar? nade a v ~ . i l n . h l e t o ns~nber S t a t e s .

62. %nardin,? t h e "con-t;.ntN .. ~f t h ? s ? models. th" mk?etiaq d i r w t s d t h s t t h e

"(iuii?elines" should s t r e s s t h e l i n i t a t i o n s o' t h e m=.n?o'.r?r r o r e c a s t i n r r 'mroach.

I n t h i s r?crrd, t h e riGuid~:lines".:silo~ild i n i i i c a t e t h e d.at?. r e n u i r e d by t h e d i f f e r e n t methods a s w e l l a s how some of t i i e r ? n u i r e d d ~ " t a vhi.cll nrn a.vsi.la~~1.s i n t h e

a h i s t r y ?rf t d u c z t i o n o f t h e memhsr S t s t e s can b? a c c s s s o d . The " ~ u i d e l i n e s ' ~ s h o u l d &].so sdare'ss t h e i s s u e of t h e qrocedure of 3 u t t i n g i n t o ³ q r n i e c t i o n model, t h e element of t h e n r o d u c t i v i t ~ r of t h e t r a i n e d educated mannower.

mis

r e l n t r s t o e v d u a t i o n m d im-iIementntion of e d u c z t i o n s l n r o q ~ n ~ e s i n terms o r i n d i c a t i n c t i l e e x t e n t t o w?iich t h o s e i.ih.0 :jo t h r o u z h tF.e vw-ious l r v e l s o f e d u c a t i o n system ?.re b. zxnp ,%$sorbed i n t h e economy. ..

63. I n t r o d u c i n g t h i s zi:i.n?n i t e m , ^2. r e n r e s ? n t a t i v ; -

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t h e secret-.ri,at o v e r viewed t h e concentuii. elements t h a t ? r e embodi?t! i n contem?orarir human r e s q u r c e s nl7nnin.q i n r e l a t i o n t o ?o?ula.tion d~rn-lrnics. T h i s nroc-.ss, he ex?ln.incd, i s :aiimed

?t s t i m u l a t i n i : n n n t < . o n 7 s d e v e l o n w n t throurrh t h e continuous maniqulation o r t h e s i z e , s t r u c t m - e , n u s l i t v , ?.ttitud.? an? comnosition of i t s e n t i r e n o n u l a t i o n .

54..

The r e ? r e s e n t z t i v e t h e n revieved t h s concerns of t!le humn r e s o u r c e s ? l e n n e r . On ^{t h e} d=?velo=mant ^si$.e, be e m l ~ i n e d . ^{t h a t} t h e concerns i n v o l v e - i l a n n i n c f o r

o r e s e n t end f u t u r e s c h o o l e n r o l l m e n t e v a l u a t i o n ?.nd s t i - u c t u r i n p educ;ttionnl end t r a i n i n n n r o n r a m e s . a n d , i l l a n n i q r + o r til? q h y s i c 4 . and. rnentz.1 c a n a b i l i t i e s of t h e P n t i r a n o n u l a t i o n . The concerns on t h e i l - t i l i z . ~ t i o n s i d e i n v o l v ~ .r?nronri,=.te d l o c ~ t i o n and. d i s t r i b u t i o n of t h e workinn n o n u l a t i o n by j o b s , i n d u s t r i e s zncl iseovranhicr.1 l o c a t i o n ;olr.nninn f o r ^{w d} ? o n i t o r i n $ t h e h m z n c m i t a l f l o w r e l ? t i v e t o i t s r e c r u i t m e n t , r e t e n t i o n : , r e t i r e m e n t and r s n l a c e m e u t : a n d , m-kinf? necesssQ.rv a d j u s t m e n t s i n t h e quoility w d qurmtit-r o f qob o m o r t u n i t i e s and. l s b o u r n r o 6 u c t i v i t y i n r e l ? . t i o n t o t h e needs of s i z e oC. e x i s t i n n and exnected. ?o'?u.lation. From both s i d e s , t h e n l a n n e r i s concerned i r i t h 'indine ,s-inro?rilrte mems and s t r a t e ~ i e s f o r d e v e l o n i n ~ , and nd;inr: t h % t n o n u l a t i o n more user111 ~ ' ~ i t h a view t o i n c r e 8 s i . n ~ t h e q u n l i t v and o u a n t i t ~ r of roods and s e r v i c e s f o r t h e c o n s m n t i o n o f t h a t i d e n t i c a l

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^, The r e n r e s e n t a t i v ? t h e n o u t l i n e d t h e demoirr?nhic v % r i a b l e s t h a t e r e r e l e v a n t t o develonment .: q l a n n i n ~ i n c l u d i n i . ? s t i r n a t e s and p r o j e c t i o n s of t h e q o n u l a t i o n by a g e . s e x and rertion: annual and e m e c t e r i cirovth rete of t h e n o n u l a t i o n . r a t e s an<