Cocoa sustainability and fertilization stakes : The case of Côte d'Ivoire

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Cocoa sustainability and fertilization

stakes : the case of Côte d’Ivoire

Hamburg, October 8-9, 2008

WCF conference

14th partnership meeting

Francois Ruf CIRAD UMR Innovations

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The history of fertilizer adoption by cocoa farmers in West-Africa is

relatively recent.

Côte d’Ivoire smallholders (and more specifically the Soubré cocoa

belt) started to test fertilisers in the 1980s and its adoption became

visible in the late 1990s

The very first farmers’ objective was not to increase yields but to save

their dying cocoa trees. This played a major role in the production

increase. First of all, it prevented a collapse of production in the

entire cocoa belt of Soubré. In 2003, the approximate 70,000

tonnes of fertilizers probably generated 150,000 tonnes of cocoa (of

course interacting with other factors)

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• The trend in adoption rates in two major cocoa belts of

Côte d’Ivoire

• Its impact on cocoa yields. Economic stakes and

alarming signals

• What to do?

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This is real

….

But not the whole

story

….

Soubre, Aug. 2008 (CIRAD Photo)

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This is (often) the next step

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Rates of fertilizer adoptionand impact on yields The showcase of ‘Wes-San Pedro

After the 2002/03 jump in fertilizer adoption and cocoa yields, the decline in yields logically seems correlated to the collapse of fertilizer adoption.

F. Ruf (CIRAD) WCF meeting, Oct 2008

Yield per hectare and Fertilizer adoption around San Pedro (Côte d'Ivoire)

400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 1997/ 98 1998/ 99 1999/ 00 2000/ 01 2001/ 02 2002/ 03 2003/ 04 2004/ 05 2005 06 2006/ 07 2007/ 08 years kg /h a 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 n u m lb e r o f f e rt iliz e r ba gs

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Once information reaches farmers, the rate of fertilizer adoption looks strongly influenced by the producer price (and revenues)

Fertilizer adoption and nominal cocoa price around San Pedro (Côte d'Ivoire)

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 1997/ 98 1998/ 99 1999/ 00 2000/ 01 2001/ 02 2002/ 03 2003/ 04 2004/ 05 2005 06 2006/ 07 2007/ 08 years kg /h a 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 num lbe r of f e rt il iz e r ba gs

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In Soubré, the major coca belt of the country in the 1990s and early 2000s, the impoortance of fertilizers seems still more convincing

Yield per hectare and Fertilizer adoption

around Soubré (Côte d'Ivoire)

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 97/ 9 8 98/ 9 9 99/ 0 0 00/ 0 1 01/ 0 2 02/ 0 3 03/ 0 4 04/ 0 5 05/ 0 6 06/ 0 7 07/ 0 8 years kg /h a 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 35,0 N u m b e r of Fe rt iliz e r ba gs

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An (audacious) comparison between national production and ‘West-San Pedro’ yields would suggest that

- The 2002/03 jump in production compensated some decline in other regions

- The strong decline in San Pedro 2006/07 and 2007/08 seems to be offset by other emerging cocoa regions F. Ruf (CIRAD) WCF meeting, Oct 2008

Production in Côte d'Ivoire and yields in San Pedro

1997/98 to 2007/08 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 19 97 /9 8 19 98 /9 9 19 99 /0 0 20 00 /0 1 20 01 /0 2 20 02 /0 3 20 03 /0 4 20 04 /0 5 20 05 0 6 20 06 /0 7 20 07 /0 8 years kg /h a 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 x 1000 t o n n e s

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Key lessons

• This sudden production shifts could be interpreted as

‘accelerated regional cycles’

• This is worrying in terms of cocoa sustainability

• Technically, the expansion of cocoa in regions with soils

‘unsuited’ to cocoa and the lack of fertilizer seems to be

the main determining factors

• Fertilizer adoption looks like a key factor of sustainability

• It is enormously influenced by the level of the producer

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About the efficiency of fertilizers and its interaction with other factors F. Ruf (CIRAD) WCF meeting, Oct 2008

Cocoa production and in a migrant's farm Agboville 1997-2007 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 Years Indi c e s Production

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The very first determining factor of production remains the producive surface

Production and Production factors cocoa farm in Agboville 1997-2007

1. Producing hectarage 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 Years Indi c e s Production Hectarage

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About the efficiency of fertilizers:

- a likely significant impact of the 25 bags in 2006/07 - No-impact in 2003/04?

Production and Production factors in Cocoa farm in Agboville 1997-2007

2. plus fertilizer 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 Years In d ic e s

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2003/04 : Fertilizer efficiency is reduced … if labour is lacking

Production and Production factors in Cocoa farm in Agboville 1997-2007

3. plus labour 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 Years In d ices

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With labour and non-labour inouts increasing productivity,

replanting (has to be) the ‘next step’

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Conclusion

F. Ruf (CIRAD) WCF meeting, Oct 2008 • Despite or because of interaction with rainfall patterns and other factors,

especially labour, the rate of fertilizer adoption has become a crucial determining factor of yields and cocoa sustainability

• After a beginning of ‘green revolution’ in the late 1990s/early 2000s, the global trend from 2003 to 2008 is nothing else than a structural decline of yields per hectare.

• An ageing process partially accounts for that trend, but this is precisely a source of heavy concern, since ageing can be somehow compensated by fertilizer application.

• Both variables (fertilizer adoption and yields) are strongly influenced by the producer price

• In terms of policy implication, this survey leads to a clear conclusion: if Côte d’Ivoire does not want to observe a rapid decline of its established cocoa farms, a specific effort is required on

– the producer price,

– and technically on the re-fertilization of farms and fallow-land (possibly associating chemical and organic fertilizer).