What future for cocoa in Côte d'Ivoire?

What future for Cocoa

in Côte d’Ivoire?

1. An expected and theoretical decline

2. An unexpected capacity to rebound

3. Uncertain Contradictory forces

François Ruf CIRAD

WCF conference, Partnership meeting Washington, 4-5 October, 2006

1a. Cocoa and Coffee Producing shifts in Côte d’Ivoire in 2000 1950s

1b. ECOLOGICAL CHANGE

Forest rent loss (fertility, rainfall, ..) and REplanting difficulties

Replanting, a difficult innovation (CIRAD survey, Ruf 2006)

Prices and Planting /Replanting by Foreign Migrants (Balikro, Central-West) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 Years N o m in a l Pr ic e ( c fa F / k g ) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Ha

1c. Social and political change as an ‘unavoidable’ sequence of any boom/windfall

1d. Taxation

•Taxation level increase (Oct/Nov03)

41% PRODUCER PRICE

in % of the CIF price

35% TOTAL TAXATION

In % of the CIF CAF

295,93 TOTAL TAXATION 5 Bags 10 Prec. Reserve 25 FDPCC 5 ARCC 2,78 FRC 52,68 4.9 BCC « State Agencies » and « Profession » 2 Taxe traitant 21,25 TE 243,25 220 DUS State Oct/Nov 03

*Estimated average CIF price in October/November: 850 CfaF per kg Sources: adapted from BNETD, 2004.

Fig. 7 Plantations annuelles dans le Bas-Sassandra 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 < 1960 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99 2000-06 Périodes de plantation H ect ar es Cacaoyer Caféier Palmier Hévéa Colatier Teck Citrus

1f. Shortage of land. The ageing of the current cocoa belt

But …

2.a

Technical innovationsThe major component of the

green revolution:

Fertilizer adoption and boom

Côte d’Ivoire 1983/84 to 2002/03

(CIRAD survey, Ruf 1997-2005) Fertilizer adoption and cocoa price

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 years C fa f//k g 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 K g o f fe rt ili z e r p e r hous ehol d

Plantations annuelles ds les régions des Lacs

0 20 40 60 80 100 < 1960 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99 2000-06 Périodes de plantation H e ct ar es Cacaoyer Caféier Palmier Cocotier Hévéa Anacarde 2.C Re-investment, Re-planting, new planting ..

Fig. 12 Plantations annuelles dans le N'zi Comoé

0 20 40 60 80 100 < 1960 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99 2000-06 Périodes de plantation H e ct ar es Cacaoyer Caféier Palmier Cocotier Hévéa Anacarde Re-investment, Re-planting, new planting ..

Fig. 2d As a result of technical breakthrough, generation change, possibly the political crisis itself, planting and

Replanting spread everywhere in Southern Côte d’Ivoire (except in the current mature cocoa belt) (CIRAD survey, Ruf 2006)

Fig.1 Plantations annuelles dans le Sud Comoe

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 < 1960 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99 2000-06 Périodes de plantation H e ct ar es Cacaoyer Caféier Palmier Cocotier Hévéa

3. What next ?

Uncertain Contradictory forces

Cocoa Production per Country Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Indonesia

1975-2004 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 19 75 19 77 19 79 19 81 19 83 19 85 19 87 19 89 19 91 19 93 19 95 19 97 19 99 20 01 20 03 20 05 years Thous a n d of t ons

3.a Positive structural strength of family agriculture. Its capacity to stand shocks

3b. A positive reinforced capacity to endure shocks owing to migrants coming from regions marked by poverty

Migrants are determined to save their patrimony

… but also a structural labour shortage (CIRAD survey, Ruf 2006)

Arrival of migrants (cumul) and cocoa price

Krémoué, San Pedro, 1978-2000.

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 a n n ée s 0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Number of migrants (cumul) Nominal prices

Annual rates of cocoa planting (cumul) by autochtons and migrants Krémoué, San Pedro, 1978-2001

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 années h e ct ar es 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Fc fa /k g

3d. Positive room for further technical breakthrough

Hyp 3. With Fertilizer and little mortality

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 années k g

3c Appraisal of fertilizer impact, associated to other changes, on migrants’ farms over a cocoa cycle of 25 years (1980-2004).

(CIRAD survey, Ruf 1997-2005)

1450 1994 2519 1991 1980 35 migrants Average production of that lowest year year of the lowest production Average production (kg) year of the highest production after forest clearing Average migrant arrival date 4820 85 1996 35 migrants Production reached in average in 2002/03 2003/04 Accumulated

fertilizer bags over years

The year of first fertilizer adoption

3d. Positive room for further technical breakthrough

Hyp 3. With Fertilizer and little mortality

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 années k g

3d. Hopefully a progressive re-internalization of the labour force … but ..

2000s 2010s?

3f A likely competition between cocoa and other tree crops, especially rubber

3.f « Rubber makes you as a civil servant »

Production of natural rubber in Côte d'Ivoire

0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 years P roduc ti on ( tons )

3g Why Cocoa should escape the coffee scenario? The Strength Comparative prices and revenue

Average Coffee production trend

(200 cocoa and coffee farms) (CIRAD survey, Ruf 1997-2005)

68

94

96

91

82

82

76

Ouragahio (Centre-ouest)

4

35

49

187

178

157

138

San Pedro (Sud-ouest) 2003/ 2004 2002/ 2003 2001/ 2002 2000/ 2001 1999/ 2000 1998/ 1999 1997/ 1998 Campagne (1) Moy de production de café (kg)

3g. Why Cocoa should necessarily escape the coffee scenario? Coffee was the dominant crop in the 1950s

Coffee Supply in Côte d'Ivoire

0 1000000 2000000 3000000 4000000 5000000 6000000 7000000 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 Years 60-kg bags

Hi from Gagnoa,