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Preprint submitted on 6 Oct 2016
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The Prediction of Earthquakes In Romania-Vrancea
Stefan Mehedinteanu
To cite this version:
Stefan Mehedinteanu. The Prediction of Earthquakes In Romania-Vrancea. 2016. �hal-01377126�
1 The Prediction of Earthquakes In Romania-Vrancea
Stefan Mehedinteanu
Independent Researcher, Romania e-mail mehedintz@yahoo.com Abstract
Since the model for earthquakes (EQ) prediction in Vrancea-site, Romania as developed in 2009 year, in the following years (till 2016) have predicted very well the small EQs we will present this model.
Results and Discussions
Based on the history of earthquakes (EQ) in period 1802-2009 that happen in Vrancea site of Romania, a model it was developed, where the high magnitude EQs of 6.7÷8.1 on Richter scale from 1802-2009 were interpolated with a high degree polynomial function to determine the maxims charged energies. Now, in order to determine the points of next prediction it is added graphically the smaller ones 5, that account for energy release after a big one and followed by recharging to the maxims energy of the tectonic plates to the next big one, see figure 1. The intersection of this curve with prediction curve gives the time of the next big one. This prediction it was confirmed for the period 2009÷2016.
In the next figure it was added new data after 2009, in the region of lower magnitude, see figure 2.
Fig.1 The prediction (2009) of high EQs in Romania-Vrancea site
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300
years
magnitudine Series1
release Poly. (Series1) Poly. (release) 1802
predictie release
recharge maxim-charge
2
Fig.2 The new prediction of high EQs in Romania-Vrancea site
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300
years
magnitudine Series1
release Poly. (Series1) Poly. (release) 1802
predictie
new-happen
Now, if we use the time in months or days we obtain a more accurate prediction. Also, if some countries are interested in these kind of prediction is necessary to ours furnish a detailed history magnitudes-timing of theirs sites.
We can conclude the excellent prediction till now.
