A. Bauwens, C. Sohier, A.Degré
Which agriculture can face climate change?
Focus on varietal adaptation
Study context
Heat wave, drought, more rain and higher
temperature are just few hazards agriculture may face on at the end of the century. Negative effects as well as opportunities may be encountered . But in all case, ADAPTATION will be necessary.
Study area
Adaptation of maize is considered in Wallonia, Belgium for the end of the century under 2 climate change scenarios wet/
dry (CCI-HYDR). Maize is present in all regions of
the Meuse catchment.
Key factors for crop growth
Accumulation of heat
Length of the day
Availability of the water
Nutrients
Atmospheric CO2
Variety of the crop
Management practices
Stresses / positive effects of CC
Faster start of the crop
Heat and drought stress in
summer
Shortened growing season
Increased yield variability
CO2 fertilization
Optimization of the crop
Adaptation of seeding and
harvesting dates
Development of varieties
more resistant to drought and/or heat
Varieties with longer
growing season
Effects of climate change on actual maize and consequences of adaptation
Adaptation of optimal temperature for growth:
Final Event 13‐15 March 2013 Sedan, France Soil‐Water Systems Passage des Déportés, 2 2030 Gembloux, Belgium 2070-2100 High 2070-2100 Low 12.60 12.70 12.80 12.90 13.00 13.10 13.20 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 yi e lds (t /h a) optimal temperature (°C) Evolution of maize yields in 2070‐2100 high in function of optimal temperature 13.20 13.40 13.60 13.80 14.00 14.20 14.40 14.60 14.80 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 yi e lds (t /h a) optimal temperature (°C) Evolution of maize yields in 2070‐2100 low in function of optimal temperature 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 01 ‐Jan 01 ‐Fe b 01 ‐Ma r 01 ‐Ap r 01 ‐Ma y 01 ‐Ju n 01 ‐Ju l 01 ‐Au g 01 ‐Se p 01 ‐Oc t 01 ‐No v 01 ‐De c BI O M /B IO M ma x Evolution of the upper biomass for corn under the 2070‐2100 Low scenario 1970‐2000 2070‐2100 without adaptation 2070‐2100 with adaptation 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 01 ‐Ja n 28 ‐Ja n 24 ‐Fe b 22 ‐Ma r 18 ‐Ap r 15 ‐Ma y 11 ‐Ju n 08 ‐Ju l 04 ‐Au g 31 ‐Au g 27 ‐Se p 24 ‐Oc t 20 ‐No v 17 ‐De c BI O M /B IO M ma x Evolution of the upper biomass for corn under the 2070‐2100 High scenario 1970‐2000 2070‐2100 without adaptation 2070‐2100 with adaptation Yields (t/ha) 2071‐2100 high 2071‐2100 low without adapta on 12.67 14.38 with adapta on 13.69 15.04 Difference (%) 1970‐2000 18.10 without adapta on ‐30 % ‐20.5% with adapta on ‐24.4% ‐16.9%
Adaptation of corn variety can diminish by a quarter the negative impacts of climate
change on yields. Maize is a C4 crop and cannot take advantage of the CO2 fertilization like C3 crops. Moreover, it is important to mention, that variability of yields will be exacerbated
