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HAL Id: hal-01238276

https://hal.inria.fr/hal-01238276

Submitted on 11 Dec 2015

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Compromis précision-temps de calcul et détection de

ruptures

Maxime Brunin, Christophe Biernacki, Alain Celisse

To cite this version:

Maxime Brunin, Christophe Biernacki, Alain Celisse. Compromis précision-temps de calcul et

détec-tion de ruptures. 6ème Rencontres des Jeunes Statisticiens, Aug 2015, Le Teich, France. �hal-01238276�

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Conclusion

Compromis précision-temps de calcul et détection de ruptures

Maxime BRUNIN, Christophe BIERNACKI & Alain CELISSE

Laboratoire Paul Painlevé, Université de Lille 1

INRIA Lille-Nord Europe, équipe MODAL

(3)

Plan de la présentation

1

Introduction

2

Sélection de modèle

3

Méthodes existantes

Programmation dynamique

Segmentation binaire

4

Conclusion

(4)

Conclusion

Sommaire

1

Introduction

2

Sélection de modèle

3

Méthodes existantes

Programmation dynamique

Segmentation binaire

4

Conclusion

(5)

Introduction

Sélection de modèle

Méthodes existantes

Conclusion

Exemple de détection de ruptures

0

200

400

600

800

1000

−2

0

2

4

6

8

Observations

X

(6)

Conclusion

Détection de ruptures

Soit {X

i

}

i ∈J1,nK

un signal présentant des changements dans la distribution à

différents instants de ruptures {τ

1

, . . . , τ

D−1

}.

Objectif

Trouver un estimateur de {τ

1

, . . . , τ

D−1

} à l’aide d’un algorithme.

Classiquement, on réalise de la détection de ruptures dans la moyenne.

Je m’intéresse à la

détection de ruptures dans la distribution

.

(7)

Introduction

Sélection de modèle

Méthodes existantes

Conclusion

Détection de ruptures dans la moyenne

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0

200

400

600

800

1000

−2

0

2

4

6

8

Observations

X

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●

0

200

400

600

800

1000

−2

0

2

4

6

8

Observations

X

(8)

Conclusion

Détection de ruptures dans la distribution

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0

100

200

300

400

500

600

−2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Observations

X

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0

100

200

300

400

500

600

−2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Observations

X

(9)

Introduction

Sélection de modèle

Méthodes existantes

Conclusion

Lien entre détection de ruptures dans la moyenne et détection de ruptures

dans la distibution

H RKHS de noyau k : X

2

7→ R (Φ(x) = k(x, .)) :

On se place dans un RKHS H de noyau k. On recode le signal initial {X

i

}

i ∈J1,nK

par le signal {Y

i

}

i

J1,nK

∈ H

n

défini par Y

i

= k(X

i

, .) = k

X

i

. Le modèle s’écrit :

∀i ∈

J1, nK,

Y

i

= µ

i

+ 

i

.

La détection de ruptures dans la distribution est de la détection de ruptures

dans la moyenne dans le RKHS H grâce à la propriété :

∀i 6= j ∈

J1, nK

2

,

µ

i

6= µ

(10)

Conclusion

Sommaire

1

Introduction

2

Sélection de modèle

3

Méthodes existantes

Programmation dynamique

Segmentation binaire

4

Conclusion

(11)

Introduction

Sélection de modèle

Méthodes existantes

Conclusion

Notations

Y = Y

1

, . . . , Y

n

 ∈ H

n

et µ

= µ

1

, . . . , µ

n

 ∈ H

n

.

M est l’ensemble des segmentations m = {τ

i

}

i ∈

J1,D

m

−1

K

.

Soit {S

m

, m ∈ M} la famille de modèles avec S

m

l’ensemble des

u = u

1

, . . . , u

n

 ∈ H

n

vérifiant :

u

1

= · · · = u

τ

1

, u

τ

1

+1

= · · · = u

τ

2

, . . . , u

τ

Dm −1

+1

= · · · = u

n

.

Estimateur du risque empirique : ˆ

µ

m

= arg min

u∈S

m

kY − uk

2

H

n

.

Objectif

Trouver la meilleure segmentation ˆ

m parmi l’ensemble des segmentations

candidates m ∈ M.

(12)

Conclusion

Critère pénalisé

ˆ

m est défini par :

ˆ

m = arg min

m∈M

crit(m).

L’objectif est de trouver un

critère

crit(m) permettant de quantifier la

distance

entre µ

et ˆ

µ

m

.

Certains critères pénalisés fournissent une inégalité oracle :

crit(m) = kY − ˆ

µ

m

k

2

H

n

+ pen(m) ≈ kˆ

µ

m

− µ

k

2

H

n

.

µ

m

ˆ

− µ

k

2

H

n

≤ inf

m∈M

{kˆ

µ

m

− µ

k

2

H

n

+ pen(m)} + R

n

,

(13)

Introduction

Sélection de modèle

Méthodes existantes

Conclusion

Programmation dynamique

Segmentation binaire

Sommaire

1

Introduction

2

Sélection de modèle

3

Méthodes existantes

Programmation dynamique

Segmentation binaire

4

Conclusion

(14)

Conclusion

Sommaire

1

Introduction

2

Sélection de modèle

3

Méthodes existantes

Programmation dynamique

Segmentation binaire

4

Conclusion

(15)

Introduction

Sélection de modèle

Méthodes existantes

Conclusion

Programmation dynamique

Segmentation binaire

Détection de ruptures par programmation dynamique

Cette méthode, basée sur la programmation dynamique, se décompose en deux

étapes :

1

Programmation dynamique :

ˆ

m

D

= arg min

m∈M(D)

kY − ˆ

µ

m

k

2

H

n

.

2

Sélection de modèle :

ˆ

D = arg min

D∈

J1,D

max

K

{kY − ˆ

µ

m

ˆ

D

k

2

H

n

+ pen( ˆ

m

D

)}.

avec :

M(D) l’ensemble des segmentations de {1, . . . , n} en D segments.

pen(m) =

CD

m

n



log(

n

D

m

) + 1



avec C une constante à calibrer par

heuristique de pente.

(16)

Conclusion

Compromis précision-temps de calcul

Précision (Arlot, Celisse et Harchaoui 2012)

Sous les hypothèses suivantes,

∃M > 0, sup

i ∈J1,nK

kY

i

k

2

H

= sup

i ∈J1,nK

k(X

i

, X

i

) ≤ M

2

.

max

i ∈J1,nK

v

i

≤ v

max

v

i

= E

 k

i

k

2

H

.

∃0 < c

min

< +∞, min

i ∈

J1,nK

v

i

M

2

c

min

=: v

min

> 0.

avec une probabilité supérieure à 1 − e

−x

, si C

1

≥ L

1

c

min

2

, on a le résultat :

1

n

µ

m

ˆ

− µ

k

2

H

n

≤ 2 inf

m∈M

{

1

n

µ

m

− µ

k

2

H

n

+ 2pen(m)} +

C

1

(log(4) + x ) v

max

n

.

Temps de calcul

C’est une méthode exacte dont la complexité est de O D

max

n

4

 en temps et

(17)

Introduction

Sélection de modèle

Méthodes existantes

Conclusion

Programmation dynamique

Segmentation binaire

Sommaire

1

Introduction

2

Sélection de modèle

3

Méthodes existantes

Programmation dynamique

Segmentation binaire

4

Conclusion

(18)

Conclusion

Exemple itération 1

Itération 1

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0

100

200

300

400

500

600

−2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Observations

X

● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

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Obervations

X

(19)

Introduction

Sélection de modèle

Méthodes existantes

Conclusion

Programmation dynamique

Segmentation binaire

Exemple itération 2

Itération 2

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X

(20)

Conclusion

Exemple itération 3

Itération 3

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● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

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Obervations

X

(21)

Introduction

Sélection de modèle

Méthodes existantes

Conclusion

Programmation dynamique

Segmentation binaire

Exemple itération 4

Itération 4

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X

(22)

Conclusion

Exemple itération 5

Itération 5

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Observations

X

● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

−2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Obervations

X

(23)

Introduction

Sélection de modèle

Méthodes existantes

Conclusion

Programmation dynamique

Segmentation binaire

Principe

A l’itération t, on cherche à minimiser le risque en β pour trouver les instants

de ruptures :

R(β

(t)

1

, . . . , β

n

(t)

) = R(β

(t)

) =

Y − X

(t)

β

(t)

2

H

n

=

n

X

i =1

Y

i

n

X

j =1

X

i ,j

(t)

β

j

(t)

2

H

,

où X

(t)

est réactualisée à chaque itération.

On utilise la méthode de descente de coordonnées et la segmentation binaire.

La descente de coordonnées fournit la direction j minimisant R(β

(t)

) et son

minimiseur β

j

∈ H.

(24)

Conclusion

Segmentation binaire

Critère : R(β

(t)

1

, . . . , β

(t)

n

) =

Y − X

(t)

β

(t)

2

H

n

=

n

X

i =1

Y

i

n

X

j =1

X

i ,j

(t)

β

(t)

j

2

H

.

|

|

|

|

|

|

|

|

|

|

j1

|

1

n

t=1

τ

^

1

|

1

n

t=1

τ

^

1

|

j2

|

j3

|

1

n

t=2

τ

^

1

|

τ

^

2

|

1

n

t=2

τ

^

1

|

τ

^

2

|

j2

|

j4

|

j5

|

1

n

t=3

(25)

Introduction

Sélection de modèle

Méthodes existantes

Conclusion

Programmation dynamique

Segmentation binaire

Estimateur

A l’itération t, on récupère une segmentation ˆ

m

D

en D = t + 1 segments :

ˆ

m

D

=

arg min

m∈M

D

( ˆ

τ

1

,..., ˆ

τ

D−2

)

kY − ˆ

µ

m

k

2

H

n

,

avec M

D

τ

1

, . . . , ˆ

τ

D−2

) est l’espace des segmentations en D segments avec

(26)

Conclusion

Compromis précision-temps de calcul

Temps de calcul

La segmentation binaire à noyau a une complexité de O n

2

 en temps et O(n)

en espace.

Précision

La recherche d’un temps d’arrêt ˆ

D demeure une question.

Algorithme

(27)

Introduction

Sélection de modèle

Méthodes existantes

Conclusion

Programmation dynamique

Segmentation binaire

Une piste

Dans le cas, H = R, on a le résultat suivant (Fryzlewicz 2014) :

Hypothèses

min

i ∈J1,D

K

i

− τ

i −1

| ≥ δ

n

≥ C

1

n

α

avec C

1

> 0 et α ≤ 1.

min

i ∈J1,D

K

τ

i

− µ

τ

i −1

| ≥ f

n

≥ C

2

n

−β

avec C

2

> 0 et β ≥ 0.

α −

β

2

>

3

4

.

Théorème

Sous des contraintes sur un paramètre de seuil ζ

n

, P(A

n

) ≥ 1 − C

3

n

−1

,

A

n

= { ˆ

D = D

,

max

i ∈J1,D

−1

K

| ˆ

τ

i

− τ

i

| ≤ C ξ

n

},

avec ξ

n

= n

2

δ

n

−2

f

n

−2

log (n).

(28)

Conclusion

Définition de ˜

Y

s,e

b

● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ●● ● ●●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ●●● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●

Obervations

Y

s

b

0

e

Y

s,b0

Y

b0

+

1,e

Pour b ∈

Js , e − 1K,

˜

Y

s,e

b

=

r

(e − b)(b − s + 1)

e − s + 1

Y

s,b

− Y

b+1,e



(29)

Introduction

Sélection de modèle

Méthodes existantes

Conclusion

Programmation dynamique

Segmentation binaire

Algorithme (Fryzlewicz 2014)

fonction BinSeg(s,e,ζ

n

)

si e-s<1 alors

STOP

sinon

b

0

= arg max

b∈

Js ,e −1K

| ˜

Y

s,e

b

|

si| ˜

Y

b

0

s,e

| > ζ

n

ajouter b

0

à l’ensemble des instants de ruptures estimés

BinSeg(s,b

0

, ζ

n

)

BinSeg(b

0

+ 1,e,ζ

n

)

sinon

STOP

fin si

fin si

fin fonction

On exécute BinSeg(1,n,ζ

n

).

(30)

Conclusion

Résultats

Pour 100 répétitions d’un bruit ∀i ∈

J1, nK 

i

∼ N (0, 1) (n = 1000) :

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●●● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●

0

200

400

600

800

1000

−2

0

2

4

6

8

Observations

X

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Graphique représentant la fréquence des répétitions en fonction des instants de ruptures

instants de ruptures

Fréquence des répétitions

Figure

Graphique représentant la fréquence des répétitions en fonction des instants de ruptures

Références

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