Age at Mean parity Current Age first

No. of mothers

marriage

15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 3'.)-39 40-44 45-.;9 L USA K A

Under 15 Parity

No. of

m::>thers 1.66 3.9 5.25 6.46 B.50 8.07 8.29

35

51 51 52 46 29 14

15-16 Parity

1.52

2.96 4.80 6.80 8.00

9. ,~,

8.54

No. of mothers 71 134 141 127 85 37

17-18 Parit:r 1.48 2.43 11.60 5.91 6.91 il.37 9.06 No. of mothers 46 161 109

93 7':>

46 34

19-20 Parity 1.25 1.80 4.01 5.31 7.'10 B.Ol 9.33

No.of mothers 4 94 69 61 42 24 12

21+ Parity 1.33 1.76 2.84 4.83 6.00 6.13 6.82

No. of mothers 21 63

17

53 41 15 22

Total Parity 1.51 2.48 4.1'1 6.04 7.114 8.36 8.42 No. of mothers 177 509 446 386 289 169

119

K E E 11 B E

Under 15 Parity 1.25 4.67 4.9 7.32 1.62 10.91 8.4

No. of' mothers

4 12 10 19

13 11 10

15-16 Parity 2 2.67 5.41 6.25 5.96 S.44 7.09

No. of mothers

11

18 22

24

27 27 34

17-lS Parity 1.36 2.50 4. 6.30 8.06 7.23 7.12

No. of mothers

11

20 31

33 33

31 39

19-20 Parity 2 2.0 5.67

5.33

8.33 7.33 10.17

:'0. of v.others 1 10 6

_{9 3 3}

6

21+

Parity 1.50 1.72 3.33 5.33 6.12 5.00 4.33

No. of mot,hers 10

11 9

9 8

₃

9

Total Parity

_1.59

2.72 4.71

6.31

7.14 8.09 7.96

No. of mothers 37 71 78 94 84 75 98

Nuptiality and fertility

The structure and changes of nuptiality of the population at any given point in time is the most important proximate variable affecting fertility.

The marital composition of the population,laws and norms governing the entry into marital union, marriage, remarriage, divorce and widowhoOd, and societal norms about pre-marital chastity and extra-marital births are all important aspects of nuptiality that determine the fertility of a population.

The marital status composition for Lusaka among women aged 15-49 yearG was such that the majority 69.2%, were married, and a sig!ificant proportion, 25.3% were single. The incidence of divorce and separation, and widowhood were low, 4% and 1.5%, respectively. For Keembe, the survey showed that 64.5%

were married, 20.5% were single, 11.2% were divorced, and 3.8% were widowed.

The incidence of singleness was significant and was mostly concentrated in the young age group 15-24 who postpone consummation of marriage at these age groups mainly due to their education. More than 71% of women a~ed 15-19 years, and more than 21% of women aged 20-24 were single. The provision of greater op-portunities for higher education will continue to result in an increasing incidence of singleness among young women and thus will have a depressant effect on fertility.

Early marriage contributes to high fertility of women due to their long exposure to child bearing. Analysis of the distribution of mar,ied women by age at first marriage showed that 62% of Lusaka women, and 79% of Keembe women had married before they reached the age of 17 years, and almost all, 90% of the married women from Lusaka, and 96% of the married women of Keembe, were married before they reached the a~e of 20, demonstrating that marriage was contracted at a very young age.

Analysis of interrelationships of nuptiality and fertility using propor-tion married, (1m) proporpropor-tion single, (Is) proporpropor-tion divorced, (Irt) and pro-portion widowed, (rw) can be derived by using the methodology of the relation between nuptiality and fertility developed by Coale 1/. The proportion mar-ried Index9 1m, measures the extent to which marriage contributes to the

achievement of the potential maximum fertility of the population. The pro~or­

tion married index, the proportion single, divorced and widowed indices for Lusaka and Keembe are calculated by multiplying the proportions married, single, widowed and divorced in each a~e group by the Huterite schedule of marital

fertility and dividing the sum of the products by the total fertility rate of

l/

Coale A.J. (1965), Factors Associated with the Development of Low Fertility, A Historical Summary, United Nations, World Population Conference, New York.

(1969), The Decline of Fertility in Europe from the French Revolution to Ilorld War III, in Fertility and Family Planning, ed. S.J. Behrman, Leslie Corsa, Jr. and R. }'reedman, Ann. Arbon.

the Hutterite of 12.44 children. The proportion married index showed that

marr~age accounted for 78.4% and 10.1% of total fertility for Lusaka and Keembe. For most societies studied, the proportion married index varies from 40% (the lowest 1m index of 47 being for Ireland) to 100%. Th" ,p'coportion si.ngle index computed from data collected in this survey was 15.4% for Lusaka, and 15.2% for Keembe. The analysis suggest that divorce in Keembe influenced total fertility significantly - Id being equal to 12.2%.

For purposes of comparison, the nuptiality index was also calculated for the 1969 census of Zambia, and for the Kenya and Lesotho World Fertility Survey results. In Zam~ia, Kenya b.nd Lesotho, the influence of marriage

on total fertility was very high and similar - (1m) close to 80%. The lower index of marriage for Keembe was not easy to understand, but in the case of urban areas for Kenya, the lower index was due to the increasing proportion of single women. The proportion single index accounted for about 15% of total fertility except for Zambia which was 10.8%, and Kenya urban, which was 17.5%.

With the provision of greater opportunities for the education of women, and the increasing pace of urbanization, the proportion single Index would rise and if fertility of single women bec~me insignificant, total fertility of the popula-tion would be depressed. Next to marriage and singleness, the index of divorce is significant in the case of rural Keembe, and urban Kenya.

Table 8. Index of NuptiaTity for Lusaka, Keembe, Kenya and Lesotho

Index of Nuptiality Lusaka Keembe Zambia Ken;t:a Lesotho 1969 Total Rural Urban

Proportion married

index, 1m 0.784 0.701 0.786 0.787 0.792 0.721 0.753 Proportion Single

Index, Is 0.154 0.152 0.108 0.147 0.142 0.175 0.150 Proportion divorced

Index, Id 0.046 0.122 0.084 0.044 0.041 0.076 0.045 Proportion widowed

Index, Iw 0.016 0.025 0.022 0.022 0.025 0.028 0.052

Total 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

PREGNANCY ORDER AND OUTCOME

The survey showed that of total pregnancies, 90 per cent in Lusaka, and in live births; 6.3 per,' cent in Lusaka, and 6.0 miscarriages, and 2.8 per cent in Lusaka, and 3.1 still births.

89 per cent in Keembe ended per cent ln Keembe ended ln per cent ln Keembe ended ln

The distribution of total live born children, miscarriages and still births by pregnancy order is given in Table 9.

Table }. Distribution of Pregnancies by Order: Lusaka and Keembe

Pregna- LUSAKA KEEMBE

ncy Live Miscarriages Live

order Pregnancies Births Still births Births

1 19.5 19.3 20.7 17.1

2 17.3 17.1 18.9 15.8

3 14.8 15.1 12.3 13.8

4 12.5 12.7 11.2 12.1

5 10.3 10.3 10.5 10.5

6 8.1 8.1 8.4 8.8

7 6.3 6.4 5.1 7.2

8 4.2 4.3 4.0 5.0

9 and ^over 6.8 6 .. 6 9.0 9.7

Total

=

^{N 12,074 10,869 1,205 2,835}

% 100.0 90.0 10.0

It will be observed that due to the very high fertility, the percentage of higher order pregnancies and live births were si~nificant, and that the reduction to overall fertility due to pregnancy wastage, was about 10 percent.

The pregnancy wastage was under-reported for many voluntary abortions might not have been reported as abortion accounted for only 0.9 per cent in Lusaka, and 1.9 per cent in Keembe.

- _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ t

If there was no pregnancy wastage the mean parity per mother could have been

4.37

children instead of

3.94

in Lusaka, and

5.05

instead of

4.49

in Keembe. To see what the potential mean parities by age Jroup of mother could have been in the absence of pregnancy wastage, the mean live births, mean pre-gnancy "astages and mean pregnancies by age group of mothers is presented in Table

10.

It will be observe'1 from 'Table

10

that th2 ",pen p:t:egnlmcy wac:;age ",er

;~(')ICe.i:" increases 'with increasing ag~ of women, and it rises from 0.1 pregnancy

was~age for woman aged

15-19

to about one child wastage for woman aged

45-49

years.

Table

10.MEAN

PARITY BY PREGNANCY OUTCOMES AND AGE GROUP OF MOIHERS

Age L U S Ii Ie A K)';8~"1BE

group of Mean Mean ^I1.'iean Mean Mean Mean

mothers live Pregnancy total live Pregnancy total

~jothers birth wastage Pregnancies Mothers birth Wastage PreGn.

15-19 111 1.27 0.14 1.41 38 1.45 0.08 1.53

20-24 509 2.01 0.18 2.26 ₁₁ 2.07 0.23 2.30

25-29 446 3.63 0.38 4.04 78 3.49 0.44 3.92

30-34 386 4.93 0.52 5.45 94 4.93 0.41 5.34

35-39 289 5.94 0.58 6. 84 5.76 0.79 6.55

40-44 169 6.21, 0.67 6.92 75 6.25 0.84 7.09

45-49 119 5.68 0.92 6.111 95 5.56 0.33 6.39

Total

2095 3.94 0.42 4.37 538 4.49

0.56

5.05

Fertility and Marital Stfltus

Table 12. Martital status of women who had births during the precedinR

However, the data also suggest the existence of significant non-marital ferti-lity. Thus 9 per cent of all Lusaka births and 24 per cene of all births in Keembe were the children of women who were not in the married state at the time of the survey. There were more of such births to never marri~d than to divorced or separated women. Surprisingly, a greater percentage of births occurred to never married women in Keembe than in Lusaka where traditional a higher level of education is associated with significantly lower fertility.

For example, illiterate women in Lusaka who married under 15 years of age had 2.6 children more than their counterparts with secondary form 1-2 education and

4

children more than those with secondary Form 3 and higher. In Keembe, women who had never been to school and were married under 15 years of age

130

had 2.3 children more than women whose educational level was primary grade 5 and above. The fact that educated women had lower fertility than non-educated women is due to the delayed age at marriaee of educated women. As shown in Table

13

Lusaka women with Secondary Form

3

or higher education marry on

averaGe three years later than those with no education. It is also due to the acceptance of small family size norms as a result of education, which is

usually observed among African women with secondary or higher education. As many other studies have demonstrated illiterate women had almost the same fertility as women with primary grades 1-4 education, and the latter seem to have higher fertility in Keembe. The higher fertility of primary educated women may be due to less adherence to traditional practices regarding sexual abstinence and breastfeeding, without changing their attitudes towards family size norms. Primary educated women would have acquired relatively better knowledge of personal hygiene and nutritional status which might predispose them to less pregnancy wastage than their illiterate counterparts and also to better reporting by primary educated women. It is interesting to note that similar findin 0s have been reported by other studies

11/.

11/ Ministry of Health, Freetovn and WHO Geneva: Infant and Enrly Childhood Mortality in Relation to Fertility Patterns. Report on ad-hoc Survey in Greater Freetown, the Western Area and Makeni the Northern Province, Sierra Leone,

1973 - 1975, 1980

p.

98.

-UNECA. Fertility Differentials in Africa: Population Dynamics, Fertility and Mortality in Africa. Addis Ababa,

1979,

pp. 252-264.

Table 1j Mean Farity by age at first marriage and level of education of ever-married women

Age at first Mean parity No. education Primary Primary Seccndary Seconaary

marriage No. of women Grades 1-4 Grade 5+ Form 1-2 Form 3 or

Higher Lusaka Keembe Lusaka Keembe Lusaka Keembe Lusaka Lusaka

Under 15 Parity 6.5 7.1 6.3 7.3

4.3

4.8

3.9

2.5

lio. of women 104 45 82 26 77 9 13 2

15-16 Parity 7.1 6.6 5.9 7.5 3.9

3.3

3.0

3.6

No. of yomen 190

9'r

209 40 196 25 34 20

17-18 Parity 6.3 6.6 5.1 6.5

3.9

^4.0 3.7

3.6

No. of women 142 105 127 57 198 34 55 48

19-20 Parity 5.5

6.0

6.0 6.8 4.4 4.0 4.3

2.6

No. of women 51 16 61 10 106 11

57

21 and over Parity 5.2

3.5

^6.2 4.9 4.4

2.5

3.1 3.2

No. of women 30 27 31 14 34 17 62

Total Parity 6.5 6.4 6.0 6.8 4.1 3.6

3.7

3.2

Ho. of women 517 510 147

611

96 165

Mean age 16.2 16.5 16.4 16.6 16.8 17.5 17.9 19.2

Fertility and mother tongue

In Lusaka, the women covered in the Survey belonged to many ethnic

groups, with Nyanja and Bemba being the predominant groups whereas in Keembe, the major ethnic group was Lenje. As can be seen in Table l~, there was ~o difference in the over-all mean parity between the Lenje and the other ethnic groups in Keembe. In Lusaka, a mean parity of 5 children was reported for women of the pr edominant ethnic groups: Nyanj a, Bemba, and Lenj e • The Tonga and Lozi reported low mean parities, 4.1, 3.7 respectively. The lover mean parities reported for the Tonga and Lozi confirms earlier findings by J. C.

~jitchel, and P. O. Ohadike

g/

that fertility was lower among these ethnic groups. The Lenje in i(eembe had significantly higher fertility than the Lenje in Lusaka.

When age at first marriaGe was controlled, mean parities for the Tonga and Lozi are lower than mean parities for the Nyanja, Bemba and Lenje. The Nyanja; Bemba and the other ethnic groups had about the same fertility irrespetive of age at first marriage.

While the Tonga and Lozi had a relatively late mean age at first marriage of 19.2 and 21.2 years respectively, the others married at relat ively earlier ages. 1~e Nyanja, Bemba and Lenje in Lusaka had mean age at first marriage of 18.5, 18.2, and 17.5 years respectively. The Lenje in Keembe had mean age at first marriage of 18.3 years. This seems to suggest that the fertility differentials among the ethnic groups are due in ~art to differences ln age at first marriage.

12/ See P. O. Ohadike and Habtemariam Tesfaghiolghis. The Population of Zambia, op.cit. pp. 45-51.

Table 14. Mean pa:dty by "g" at first marriage and mother tongue; Lusaka, Keembe

Age at first Mean parity

LUSAKA

KEEMBE

marriage No. of women

Nyanja Bemba Lenje Tonja Lozi Other Lenje other

Under

15

Parity

4.9 ^6.2 5.1

5.2

3.8 6.1 6.3 7.9

I'';o .. of women

52 45 31 12 5 133

59

21

15-16

Parity

5.6

5 .. C'

4.8 4.4 4.3 5.6

^1).3

6.3

No. of women

153 103 40 38 22 293 122

17-18

^Parity

5.2 4.8 6.3 4.5 4.2 4.6 6.4 5.3

No. of women

137 93 28 43 21 248 137 61

4.7 4.4 4.1 3.4 4.9 ).6

^fJ

19-20 3.3 5.5

J&

1'0. of women

76 45 15 23

17

130 26 1?

21+

_Parity

4.0 3.7 3.4 3.4 3.0 3.7 3.3 4.5

No. of women

63 45 10 31 32

112

42

17

Total Parity

5.0 5.1 5.0 4.1 3.7 5.1 5.9 5.9

No. of Vlomen

481 331 124 157 97 916 386 152

Dans le document Interrelationships among infant and childhood mortality socio-economic factors and fertility in Zambia : a case study of Lusaka and Keembe (Page 128-139)