Growth model used for the ten year perspective plan of Tunisia

(1)

UNITED NATIONS

AFRICAN INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND PLANNING

DAKAR

idep/reproduction/305

vj

DOCUMENT No. IV

GROWTH MODEL USED FOR THE TEN YE/R PERSPECTIVE PLAN OF TUNISIA.

BY

(MR. CARROLL)

APRIL. 1972.

(2)

idep/reproduction/305

Page 1.

GROWTH MODEL USED FOR THE TEM YEAR PERSPECTIVE PLAN OF TUNISIA.

Study of Trends; In 1957, a

number of economic aggregates particu¬

larly the gross

domestic product and the consumption (table 1 annexed)

were assessed from the point of view

of national accounts. To elimi¬

nate variations due to price

fluctuations, all values have been expressed

in 1957 prices.

The following are the figures for

Gross Domestic Product (G.D.P.)

and consumption.

Table 1

G.D.P. and Consumption

(prices of 1957. in millions of Dinars)

YEAR ^G.D.P. CONSUMPTION

I95O ^204.2 168.5

1951 ^206.3 183-4

1952 231.8 ^212.3

1953 240.5 ^220.2

1954 245.7 ^220.7

1955 ^233.2 225.0

1956 ^248.7 ^253-4

1957 238.5 ^230.6

1953 269-5 ^250.7

1959 258.2 ^237.4

Source = National accounts 1957»

(3)

s

4

IDEP/REPRODUCTION/305

Page 2.

If we plot on a senâ-logarithmic curvo the time factor on the ï-axis, and. on the y-axis the GDP on the one hand and consumption on the other, it will ho noticed that each of the two "clusters of points"

will fit in on a straight lino, which means that in logarithms on the average', both the GDP and consumption vary linearly with time.

In other words, it means that the GDP and the consumption are an

exponential function of time and their annual growth rates are constant.

Those growth rates arc obtained by calculating the slopes of the two

lines of ihe graph attached ^.

The following very important results are obtained after all cal¬

culation:

1)

^The ^annual growth rate of the GDP is

2.%

2)

^The ^annual growth rate ^of consumption is

3$

With trends such as those, consumption would exceed the G.D.P. in

about the middle of 1962 and the external deficit would not only servo to finance part of the investments as is the case at the present time, but to finance all the investment in addition to meeting an over increasing percentage of the consumption.

In more concrete terms, if the present trend is allowed to go on, consumption in 1964 would bo in the region of 310 million dinars while

the GDP would- be only 300 million dinars. In 1971, these figures would

1 The equations of the two linos are obtained by a regression calcula¬

tion. It is not useful for us to dwell on this calculation now.

(4)

idep/rbproductiow/31

Page 3.

be 37 and 357

respectively. For consumption alone, a foreign aid of

about 36 million dinars would be necessary.

An evolution such as this

is obviously abnormal and

will be modified

even

if there is no plan taki.'ig

the nature of things into account.

But the problem raised is to know how

it will be modified. There would be

two alternatives if appropriate steps

were not taken: either we

maintain the consumption growth rate and are

1

compelled to "eat

up" the capital little by little

or

the rate is not

maintained and the

psychological

consequences

might be disastrous.

Therefore, in order to

find

a

solution,

we

have to maintain a rate

of increase of consumption at

least equal to that observed in the past.

But production would

heave to respond accordingly, that is the G.D.F.

should increase at a rate greater or at

least equal to 3>~

a.

year and no

longer at a rate of

2.5/î*

In order to increase the G.D.P. more

should be invested and in order

to invest more, increased

foreign aid is needed at least during the first

few years

(since

it

would be psychologically awkward to reduce consumption

Taking into account an

"acceptable" consumption level and external

deficit, what is then

the appropriate rate of increase in the G.D.P. We

shall specify this with

the help of

a

small global model.

1 In fact, we should not

expect to find foreign aid amounting to

about 30 to 40 dinars for

consumption.

(5)

1 >

4

IDEP/REPRODUCTÏOIÏ/305

Page 4*

II. Global Development Model.

1.)

The model of our

discussion has five variables: the GDP, the exter¬

nal deficit, consumption, the

net investment and depreciation.

The GDP and the consumption will vary exogenously

that is their

growth rates will he fixed a

priori

as

data.

In order to make the model work, we have to

resort to three equation,

The first equation is obvious and indicates the

accounting balance

between resources and uses of goods and services.

Product + External deficit = Consumption + net Investment +

Depreciation

- The second equation shows the relation existing between

the net

investment and the increase in the GDP through tho medium of the capi¬

tal output ratio.

Dt-i -p£ p

In t-1 = net investment made in tho year t-1.

^P

⁼

Variation of the I.D.P. between the year t-1 and the year t.

t-1

According to this equation, the capit.a1 output

ratio is therefore

the investment necessary in order to increase the GDP by one unit.

(6)

IDISP/HEEBODUCTION/305

Page 5.

1

In a recent study two capitel

output ratios have been calculated

for Tunisia: the one taking into account

the investments me.de in the

iiedjerdah, Valley

is equal to 4.39» "the other which does not take these

L<

1

■j

investments into consideration is equal to

3.36.

A round number may be taken hero.

The third equation shows

the correction existing between the net

investment made in a year and the

depreciation of the following year.

At - °-03 k

^t-1.

S

^- ¹

p"t ⁼ depreciation of year

t

A

t - 1 = depreciation of year

t-1

According to this equation,

the depreciation of

a

year t is equal to

that of the year t—1 plus a new

depreciation equal to 2>fo of the net invest¬

ment made during the year t-1.

2)

The equations of

the problem thus laid down, we now heave to explain

briefly the

calculations which will enable the model to answer our ques¬

tions.

1 See "Bulletin de Statistique et d'Etudes

Economique Ho.11 July-September,

I960.

(7)

idep/eepiioduction/ 305

Page 6.

We had the following equation :

G.D.P. + Trade Deficit = Consumption + net Investment + Depreciation»

For the year 1959 which will henceforth he called year 0, we have

(in

millions of

Dinars).

258.2 + 10.8 ⁼ ²³⁷ ^- ⁴ ⁺ 16.9 + 14.7.

Knowing the value of the different terms for any year, wc deduct

their value for the following year is aB follows:

We set as targets, the growth rates of the consumption and the

G.D.P.

Knowing the variation of the latter between year t and year t+1,

the net investment of year t which would he necessary for this variation

of the GDP

(+)

is determined through the medium of the capital-output

ratio.

The depreciation of year t+1 is determined from the net investment

and the depreciation of year t.

Having the GDP, the consumption, the net investment and the depre¬

ciation for a given year, the trade deficit is then obtained from the equation showing th_ equality between ^uses and resources of goods and

services.

Thus once wc have «an investment yield rate, a depreciation rate, a growth rate of the consumption and a growth rate of the GDP, this model

It should bo noticed however that for the year

1960,

the variation of

the GDP is determined by the volume of the net Investment made in 195?»

The variation of the GDP is consequently a datum and cannot bo con¬

sidered as a target.

(8)

IDEP/ RBPRODUCTION/305

Page 7»

enables us to calculate the trade

deficit

on

the

one

hand and the volume

of investments necessary for the

realization of production and consumption

targets on the other.

3)

The

calculations have been based on five groups of assumptions.

assumptions C

(lncre,ase

in

the consumption

Assumptions A

(

(increase in the G-.DP

(increaso

in

the consumption

Assumptions B

(

(increase in the GDP

(increase

in

the consumption

Increa.sc in the GDP

(increase in the consumption

Assumptions D

(

(increase in the GDP

(increase

in

the consumption

Assumptions E

(

(increaso

in

the GDP

(Increase in the consumption

Assumptions P

(

(Increase

in the

GDP

= 3/'o a year

= 3/à a year.

= 3/o a year.

=

5^

a year.

=

3fc

a year.

=

ifo

^a ^year.

=

%

a year.

=

5%

a year.

= % a year.

=

1%

^a year.

= a year.

=

7%

^a year.

Calculation tables are attached to the

present note. The study of

the results obtained reveals that we should

reject assumption A for it

is too modest and sacrifices the future

for the present since the consump¬

tion growth rate is equal to

that of tie GDP (this assumption only reflects

present

trends).

(9)

IDEP/RLPRO ûUCTION/305

Page 8.

Assumption D is to be rejected for a similar reason and wo cannot retain assumption E for it requires foreign contributions which may not bo possible. There remain assumptions B, C and P.

The external deficit decreases regularly with these three assump¬

tions and its total column reaches about 409» 434 ?-nd

682

million dinars respectively between 1959 and 1970°

This volume may be possible in the case of assumptions B and C, but

it would seem economically and psychologically difficult to increase

the GDP in the proportions envisaged in these assumptions, while main¬

taining the increase in consumption at its present rate. It cannot be easily conceived that the increase in the GDP will bo solely devoted

to investment and that no portion of this increases will be allocated

to consumption.

Assumption F may be critized in two ways:

- on the one hand, an external deficit of 682 million dinars is

too high in the present state of the Tunisian economy.

- on the other hand, it seems the percentage of the available funds

devoted to investment is too high since this percentage reaches

34$

in 1970° Such percentages .are obtained only in a few countries like the People's Democracies. Besides this, assumptions F aerc such that in i960

investments show a very sudden jump

(this

sudden variation in investment

is indeed characteristic of all the assumptions, this can easily be understood since all the assumptions involve a sharp upward turn of the straight line characterizing the trend, in semi-logarithmic coordinates,

of the

G.D.P.).

(10)

IHiáp/REPRODUCTION/ 5O5

Page 9.

At any rate, as

1960 has already

come

to an end, we must see to

what extent, the

variation in investment envisaged by the calculation

corresponds to the

reality.

Unfortunately the figures

of i960

are

not yet available but if we

eximine the import figures of ^c

pital goods and building materials

consumption, we notice

that the former increased by about 68^ compared

with the figures in

1959

^*

?»n(i "the latter by about 50^.

Therefore, the gross

investments made in 1960 may be estimated at

about 50 million dinars.

Por the

same year,

on the other hand, we can

as a first approximation,

assimilate the deficit in the balance of

payments to the

external trade deficit, or 30 million dinars.

But the figures

corresponding to model F relating to year 1960

differ very appreciably from

those figures of 50 and 30 million dinars,

of which it can be said that they are

fairly realistic.

It is consequently advisable to use a more

realistic model, which

will take into account all the criticisms

made of model P.

IV Realistic Model.

First, in order to

maintain at

a

reasonable amount the share of

the available funds devoted to investments,

it

seems

that

we

should

consider a rate of increase in the G.D.P. lower

than 7/&* The rate used

in Model P'is

6/é.

(11)

IDEP/REPRODUCTION/305

Page 10.

Secondly, in order

to avoid

a

sudden increase in investment in the

first few years, we

must make maximum use of the unused productive equip¬

ment. According to the

results of tie 1957 industria.1 census, for some

sectors of the manufacturing

industries, the idle production capacity

may roach -and even

exceed ^Qfa of the total production capacity. But

the value added of the

manufacturing industries for 1959 amounted to

about 24 million dinars.

By making

an

effort to reorganize and coordi¬

nate it should he possible, between

19o2 and 19&4» to increase the GBP

by atout 10

million dinars, simply by making use of the unused produc¬

tion ca.pacity.

This assumption was

adopted in model F' and made it possible "to

round off" the variations

in investments during the first years of the

ten year

perspective plan.

Lastly, the figures

relating to the Year 1960 have been considered

as data in model F'.

V. Results

The most important

results

are

those giving the necessary gross

investments for the realization

of the growth target of GDP adopted.

(12)

IDEP/REPRODUCTION/3Û5

PAGE 11.

f-i

Throe year

Pre-plan

5 year

Plan

Year

/

Gross investment

(in

dinars

)

1962 ^75-5

J

¹⁹⁶³ ^87.2

J ¹⁹⁶⁴

Tota,! 259.9

_

1965 ^107.5

1966 ^114.0

)

₁₉₆₇ ^120.6

1968 ^131.4

1969 ^138.4

s Total 611.9

1970 1961

Grand total

149.5 60.2 1,081.5

These gross investments represent

22% of the a,vailable funds in 1962

and they increase until they

reach 29% in 1970»

This effort to invest is, no douht, very

ambitious but, to repeat

a sentence already mentioned, docs not the

precarious nature of the Tuni¬

sia econony make this ambitious

necessary?

These investments should partly be financed by

foreign countries

and partly by such national saving as

is obtained, taking into account

the increased consumption target adopted

(4%)-

(13)

IDEP/EEPRODUCTIOH/305

Page 12.

Year Gross Investments External financing National savings (millions of

dinars) (millions

of

dinars) (millions of dinars)

1962 75-5 50.5 ²⁵

1963 ^87.2 56.2 ^31.0

1964 ^97.2 ^38.0

Total 259.9 165.9 ^94.0

1965 IO7.5 61.5 ^46.0

1966 ^114.0 ^59.O ^55.O

1967 ^120.6 55.6 65.O

1968 ^131.4 56.4 ^75.0

1969 138.4 31.4 87.0

Total 611.9 283-9 328.0

1970 149.5 50.5 ^99.0

1961 ^60.2 ^41.1 ^19.1

Grand total

1,081.5

^541.4 ^540.1

The problem which remains to

he solved is obviously the determination,

firstly, of how and under

what conditions this external financing will

be ensured and, secondly, the measures to

bo taken with

a

view to

promo¬

ting national savings. A detailed study

should be made of this point

and the results obtained could possibly lead to changes in the

working

assumptions of Model F'.

This is a general observation and <as work on

planning

progresses,

this overall model could be altered. Moreover the model will

gradually

be worked out in detail in th , light of the sectorial studies to

be under¬

taken.

(14)

IDEP/REPRODUCTION/305

Page 13.

Thus, once the

overall investment figure for a given year or for

all the years of the

Plan, is accepted the problem will he to divide

this figure among

the various sectors so that the production targets,

can he achieved taking into

account the various rates of return hy sector.

This method which consists in

moving from the global to the de¬

tailed, has

proved its worth since it has been used hy such different

countries as India, the

Netherlands and the Latin American countries.

(15)

1

^ _à

%

idep/reproduction/305

Page 14»

tunisia; national accourir resources and uses 1950 - 1959 in millions of ijna-rs at 1957 prices

R_ ^ESOURCBS

I95O

—t

1951 1 195- 1953

k

I

«

....

1955 1956 1957 1958 ¹⁹⁵⁹ ^1950-54

average

1955-58

average

1. Agricultural ^60.2 51.7 68.9 73.0 65.9^' 54.1 75-4 . 68.4 90.6 77.4 69.7 72.1

2. Mining and Quarrying ^6.3 ^7.9 ^9*7 8.4 8.5 9-5 ^9.2 ^9.1 ^9-3 8.5 ^8.3 ^9.3

3. Manufacturing

1S;.2

^18.9 ^19.3 ^20.8 ^21.2 ^21.5 ^23.4 ^23.8 ^26.5 ^24.3 ^19-9 ^23.8

4. Construction 12.3 13.9 12.4 ^13.0 ^_£•^j ^12.2 9.6 7.1 9.3 10.4 12.7 9-5

5- Electricity, Gas and Water

^.3

^2.6 ⁹ ⁷ ^3.0 ^3.4 ^3.7 ^3.8 ^4.0 ^3.9 ⁴ ^2.8 ^3.8

6. Transport and Communication ^13.8 ^16.0 ^14.6 ^14.2 ^16.0 ^17.0 ^17.1 ^17-4 ^17.7 ^17.9 ^14.9 ^17.3

T. Commerce and Banks 41.6 41.4 43.6 43.8 43-5 ^42.0 47-7 43.2 46.5 41.8 42.8 44*8

3. Other Services 18.7 ^21.2 24.7 26.4 29.7 ^30.1 ^27.1 ^ro^CO^• ^29.3 35-2 ^24.1 2O.7

9- Total value added at factor

cost

(lines

1 to

8)

^174.9 ^173.6 ^195.9 ^202.6 ^204.3 ^190.1 ^213.3 ^201.4 ^233.1 ^219.5 ^190.2 ^209.3

!

10. Indirect taxes less sutsidies 16.9 17.8 ^18.1 19.9 7.1.5 ^22.4 ^20.0 ^20.8 ^20.1 ^21.4 18.9 ^20.8

11. Gross domestic production

(19

+

10)

^191.8 ^191.4 ^214.^C ^222.5 ^225.8 ^212.5 ^233.3 ^222.2 ^253.2 ^240.9 ^209.1 ^230.1

12. Wages of Tunisian Civil

Servants 12.4 14.9 17.8 ^18.C 19.9 20.7 15.4 ^16.2 16.3 17.3 ^16.6 ^17.1

13. ^Gross ^domestic production 204.2 206.3 231.8 240.5 225.7 ^233.2 248.7 238.5 269-5 258.2 ^225.7 ^247.2

14. Imports

t)

^63.9 ^65.9 ^62.7 ^63.9 ^64.6 ^69.7 ^72.8 ^68.4 ^66.5 ^72.8 ^64.2 ^69.3

15. ^Total ^resources ^268.1 ^272.2 294.5 304.5 ^310.3 302.9 321.5 306.9 ^336.0 ^331.0

USES

16. Private and public consumption

and purchase of goods and ^ser¬

vices by the Erench administra¬

tion I68.5 184.4

1i f

,

í 212.3

i

220.2 220.7 225.0 253.4 230.6 25O.7 237-4 ^201.3 239.6

. 17. ^Gross ^Investment ^42.0 ^44.3 ^39.9 ^40.3 ^36.0 ^33.3 28.5

1 23.1

^27.8 ^31.6 ^40.5 ^28.7

t 43. Exports

J

^57.6 ^43.5 ^42.3 ^43.9 ^53.6 ^42.6 ^39-6

!

^53.2 ^57.5 ^62.0 ^48.I ^48.2

19. ^{Total Uses} ^268.1 272.2 i 294.5 304.4 310.3 302.9 321.5

! 306.9

^336.0 ^331.0 ^289.9 ^316.5

20. Index of the _gross domestic

pioduct ¹⁰⁰

1

! 101

!

113 118 120 f 114 ¹²² 117 132 126 110 121

21. Ratio of investments to the gr«ss domestic product

(percentage)

²⁰

!

L

21

I

] 17

1

17 15 15

.

10 ! 10 ¹⁰ ¹² ¹⁸

^ 12

b)

Including 5 million

dinars

⁺

the Imports of Services

(16)

ASSUMPTIONS A. Growth Model

DATA : Capital-output ratio: 1 : 4

Depreciation 3>

Increase in the

consumption:3%

^a year Increase in the G.D.P. =3% ^a year

Elasticity of the productive appratus nil

idep/reproduction/305

Page

15»

Year G.D.P. AG.P.P. Ext. deficit Available tion Gross Invest¬ Deprecia¬ Net Invest- inv./avai-

funds ment tion ^ment ble funds

1959 ^258.2 ^10.8 269.0 ^237.4 31.6 14.7 16.9

12)

^{effort to}

1960 ^262. ^\ ^4.2 27.8 ^290.2 245 45.2 15.2 30

16)

made

1961 270 7.6 ^30.2 ^300.2 252 48.2 ^16.2 ³² ¹⁶

1962 278 ⁸ ^31.2 ^309.2 ²⁶⁰ ^49.2 ^17.2 ³² ¹⁶

1963 ²⁸⁶ ⁸ 36.3 322.3 268 54.3 ^18.3 36 17

1964 295 9 36.3 331.3 276 55-3 19.3 36 17

Total » 36.8 172.6 283.8 100.9 182.9

1965 304 ⁹ 36.3 340.3 284 56.3 ^20.3 ³⁶ ¹⁷

1966 313 9 37-3 350.3 293 57.3 ^21.3 36 17

(16)

1967 ³²² ⁹ 42.5 364.5 ³⁰² 62.5 22.5 40 17

1963 ³³² ¹⁰ ^42.5 ^374-5 ³¹¹ ^63-5 ^23.5 ⁴⁰ ¹⁷

1970 352 ¹⁰ 47.8 399-8 ³³⁰ 69.8 25.8 ⁴⁴ ¹⁸

1971

Grand total 373

421.5 657.7 238.8 418.9

(17)

DATA

GDP

/^GDP Ext. Deficit

1959 258.2 ^10.8

1960 ^262.4 ^4-2 52.2

1961 ²⁷⁶ 13.6 48.8

1962 ^29O ¹⁴ ^48.5

1963 ³⁰⁵ ¹⁵ ^43.3

1964 ³²⁰ ¹⁵ ^38.1

Totcal ⁼

61.8

^241.7

1965 ³³⁶ ⁱ⁰ ^36.0

1966 ³⁵³ ¹⁷ ^34.0

1967 ³⁷¹ ¹⁸ ^31.2

1963 ³⁹⁰ ¹⁹ ^27.5

1969 ⁴¹⁰ ²⁰ ^22.9

1970 430.

I

20 15-3

1971 451

Grand total

IUlS 4P$.6

idep/reproduction/305

Page

16.

Growth Modol

Capital-output rati0

¹ ^: ⁴

Depreciation

3fo

Increase in ^the consumption

-gjo

^a ^year

Increo.se in ^the ^g.D.p. 5

%

a year Elasticity ^of ^the productive appr^:ratus ^nil

Available Consump¬ ^Gross Deprecia— ^Net ^invest¬

funds tion invest. tion ment

269.0 ^237.4 31.6 14.7 16.9

314.6 ²⁴⁵ 69.6 ^15.2 ^54-4

324.8 ²⁵² 72.8 ^16.8 56

338.5 ²⁶⁰ 78.5 ^18.5 ⁶⁰

348.3 ²⁶⁸ ^80.3 ^20.3

60

358.1 ²⁷⁶ ^82.1 ^22.1

60

4.1.4n9

io7.6

^307.j

372.0 284 ^88.0 24.0 64

387.0 293 94.o ^26.0 ⁶⁸

402.2 ³⁰² ^100.2 ^28.2 ⁷²

417.5 ³¹¹ 106.5 ^30.5 76

4-32.9 ³²⁰ ^112.9 32.9 ⁸⁰

445*3 ³³⁰ 115.3 35.3 ⁸⁰

^

^gross

inv./

available funds

12 22 22 23 23 23

24 24 25 26 26 26

1.031.8 ^284.5 7,4713

(18)

ASSUMPTIONS C

DATA

Year g.d.p« ag.d.p. ïuct. Deficit ^A^{vai la,hi} funds

1959 258.2 ^10.8 ^269.0

1960 262.4 4.2 72.2 334.6

1961 ²⁸¹ ^18.6 ^68.4 ^349-4

1962 301 ²⁰ ^62.8 363.8

1963 ³²² ²¹ ^60.3 ^382.3

1964 345 ²³ 397.1

Total ⁼ 86.8

274-5

1965 369 24 47.0 416.0

1966 395 ²⁶ 41.1 436.1

1967 423 ²⁸ 33.5 456.5

1968 433 ³⁰ 24.1 477.1

1969

485

³² ^12.9 ^497.9

1970 519 34 ^1.0 520.0

1971 555

Grand total 260.8 434.1

IDEP/REPROl'UCTION/305

Growth Model Page 17»

Capital-output ratio 1 : 4 Depreciation 3

<fa

Increase in the consumption a year Increase in the G.D.P.

1%

^a year

Elasticity of the productive apparatus nil

imvest/

Consump¬

tion

Gross Invest. Deprecia¬

tion

Net invest.

%

^grc

Availa

237.4 31.6 14.7 16.9 ¹²

245 89.6 15.2 74.4 27

252 97.4 17.4 ⁸⁰ ²⁸

260 103.8 19.8 84 29

268 114.3 22.3 92 30

276 ^121.1 25.1 96 ³¹

j357-8

^443.3

284 ^132.0 ^28.0 104 32

293 143.1 31.1 112 33

302 154.5 34.5 ¹²⁰ 34

311 ^166.1 38.1 ¹²⁸ 35

320 177.9 41.9 136 36

330 190.0 46.0 144 37

1*521.4

mA

^1,137.3

(19)

assumptions d

Yea,r G.D.P.

1959 258.2

1960 262.4

1961 276

1962 29O

1963 305

1964 ³²⁰

Total =

1965 ³³⁶

1966 353

1967 371

1968 390

1969 410

I97O 430

•1971 451

fir».---, total

data

Ext. deficit ' Availab1 funds

10.8 269.0

56.2 318.6

58.8 334.8

63.5 353.5

64.3 369.9

66.1 386.1

319.7

71.0 407.O

76.0 429.O

81.2 452.2

86.5 ^476.9

91.9 501.9

94.3 524.3

820.6

Ag.d.p.

4.2 13.6 14 13 15 61.8

16 17 18 19

20 20

171.8

idep/reproduction/305

Page 18»

Grovrfch Model

Capital—output ratio 1 : 4

Depreciation

3$

Increase in the consumption

5fj

a year Increase in the G.d.P.

5%

^a year

Elasticity of the productive apparatus ^nil Consump¬

tion

Gross Invest¬

ment

Deprecia¬

tion

Net investi

%

gross

invest/

Available funds

237-4 31.6 14.7 16.9 ¹²

249 69.6 15.2 54.4 ²²

262 72.8 ^16.8 56 ²²

275 78.5 18.5 ⁶⁰ ²²

289 80.3 20.3 60 22

304 ^82.1 ^22.1 ⁶⁰ ²²

(23)

414.9 107.6 307.3

319 ^88.0 ^ro ⁰^O 64 ²²

335 94.0 ^26.0 ⁶⁸ ²²

352 ^100.2 ^28.2 ⁷² ²²

370 106.5 30.5 76 ²²

389 112.9 32.9 ⁸⁰ ²²

409 115.3 35.3 ⁸⁰ ²²

1

,031.8

^284.5 ^747-3

(20)

assumptions e Growth Model

idep/reproduct10n/305

Page19*

DATA

3yo Capital-output ratio 1 Depreciation

Increase in the assumption

5f0

^a ^year

Increase in the GDP. 7/° a year Elasticity of the productive apparatus

nil

Year G.D.F. Ac-.P.P. Ext. de¬ Available Consump— ^Gross Deprecie.- ^Net

fo

^gross inv.

ficit funds tion invest. tion _gross f\

1959 258.2 ^10.8 ^269.0 ^237.4 ^31.6 ^14.7 ^16.9 ¹²

1960 262.4 4.2 76.2 338.6 249 89.6 15.2 74-4 27

1961 ²⁸¹ ^18.6 78.4 359.4 ²⁶² 97-4 17.4 ⁸⁰ 27

1962 ³⁰¹ ²⁰ 77.8 ^378.8 ²⁷⁵ ^103.8 19.8 84 ²⁷

1963 ³²² ²¹ ^61.3 ^403.3 289 114.3 ^22.3 92 ²⁸

1964 345 ²³ ^8C.1 425.1 304 ^121.1 25.1 96 ²⁹

Total ^— 86.8 404.6

557.8

^114.5

^443.3

1965 369 24 ⁰⁰^C\i⁰⁰ 451.0 319 ^132.0 ^28.0 ¹⁰⁴ ²⁹

1966 395 ²⁶ ^83.1 478.1 335 143.1 ^31.1 ¹¹² ³⁰

1967 423 ²⁸ 82.5 5o6.5 352 154.5 34.5 ¹²⁰ ³¹

1968 453 ³⁰ 83.1 536.1 ³⁷⁰ ^166.1 ^33.1 ¹²⁸ ³¹

1969 485 ³² ^81.9 566.9 389 177.9 41.9 136 ³¹

1970 519 ³⁴ ^8C.0 599.0 409 190.0 46.o 144 ³²

1971 555

»Grand ^total ⁼ 260.8 898 .2

i

1,521.4 ^334.1

1,187.3

/

available

(21)

IDEP/::

ïjpiîO

jUCTION/305

Page 20^.

ASSUi■JTI0ÎJS F. Growth Eodel

DATA : Capital-output ratio 1 • 4

Depreciation 3^

Increase in the consumption 4% ^{a- year}

Increase in G.D.P.

755

^{a year}

Elasticity of ^the productive apparatus ^nil

Yea.r G.D.P. AG.D.P. Ext. deficit Available Consump¬ ^Gross _Deprecia¬ ^Net ^invest

funds tion Invest tion

1959 253.2 ^10.8 369.0 237.4 31.6 14.7 16.9

1960 262.4 4.2 74-2 336.6 247 89.6 15.2 74.4

1961 ²⁸¹ ^18.6 73.4 354.4 257 97-4 17.4 ⁸⁰

1962 ³⁰¹ ²⁰ o9.3 370.8 267 103.8 19.8 84

1963 322 ²¹ "0.3 392.3 278 114.3 22.3 92

1964 345 23 65.1 410.1 289 ^121.1 25.1 96

Total ⁼ 86.8 363.6 557-8 114.5 443.3

1965 369 24 64.0 433.0 301 132.0 28.0 104

1966 395 ²⁶ ^61.1 456.1 313 143.1 31.1 ¹¹²

1967 423 ²⁸ 57-5 48O.5 ³²⁶ 154.5 34.5 ¹²⁰

1968 453 30 52.1 505.1 339 166.1 38.1 125

1969 485 32 ^>.9 530.9 353 177.9 41.9 136

1970 519 ³⁴ 38.0 357.0 367 190.0 46.0 144

1971

Grand

555

total = 260.8 682.3 1,521.4 334.1 1,187.3

p

invest/available

funds

_

12 27 27 28 29 30

31 31 32 33 34 34

(22)

idep/reproduction/305

Page 21•

ASSILIPTIONS ï" Growth Model

(Realistic)

DATA : Capital-output ratio Depreciation

Increase in the consumption

Increase in the GDP.

1 :

4%

3?o

4% ^a year

6%

^a year

Year G.D.P.

Ag.d.p

Êxt. ^Deficit Âvailable ^Consump- ^Gross ^Deprecia- ^Net Învest. ^Prod.

%

gross

invest/

funds tion invest. tion

cap.(1)

^Available ^funds

1959 258.2 ^10.8 ^269.0 ^237.4 ^31.6 ^14.7 ^16.9 ¹²

1960 262.4 ^4.2 ³⁰ ^292.4 ^242.4 ^50.0 15.2 34-8 ¹⁷

1961 ^271.1 ^8.7 ^41.1 ^312.2 ²⁵² ^60.2 ^16.2 ⁴⁴ ¹⁹

1962 287 15.9 50.5 337-5 ²⁶² 75-5 17.5 58 ^4.9 ²²

1963 304 17 56.2 ^360.2 ²⁷³ ^87.2 ^19.2 ⁶⁸ ^2.5 ²⁴

1964 ³²² ¹⁸ ^59.2 ^381.2 ²⁸⁴ ^97.2 ^21.2 ⁷⁶ ¹ ²⁵

Total 63.8 237.8 1,163.1 ^104.0 ^297.7 8.4

1955 ³⁴¹ ¹⁹ 61.5 ^402.5 ²⁹⁵ ^107.5 ^23.5 84 ²⁷

1956 ³⁶² ²¹ ^59.0 ^421.0 ³⁰⁷ ^144.0 ^26.0 ⁸⁸ ²⁸

1967 384 ²² 55.6 ^439.6 ³¹⁹ ^120.6 ^28.6 ⁹² ²⁹

1968 407 ²³ 56.4 463.4 ³³² ^131.4 ^31.4 ¹⁰⁰ ²⁸

1969 432 25 51.4 483.4 345 138.4 34.4 104 29

1970 458 ²⁶ ^50.5 508.5 ³⁵⁹ ^149.5 ^37.5 ¹¹² ²⁹

'

1971

Grand total

486

199.8 ^572.2 ¹

,163.1

^285.4 ^877.7

(1)

^a The unused productive apparatus was supposed to he able to produce ^an annual value of

10

million dinars, But for reasons of

accuracy it was thought this figure might not he reached and the figure ^was reduced to

8.4

million dinars.

(23)

Results of the period 1962-64 ⁼

(1st

y

lan)

⁼

Results of the period 1965-0> ⁼

(2nd plan)

⁼

Results of the _{ten year} period 1961-70=

(ten

year

perspective)

idep/reproductION/305

Page 22.

ASSUMPTIONS P*

(Contd.)

External deficit Gross investment

165-9 or about 55 million dinars on the average a year.

259-9 about 87 million dinars on the average a year.

283.9 or about 57 million dinars on the average a year.

611.9 or about 122 million dinars on the average _{a year.}

External deficit Gross investment

= 541.4 or about 54 million dinars on the average a year.

= 1081.5 ^°r about 108 million dinars on the average a year.

(24)

Page 23»

GRAPH

PRESENT TRENDS AMD FUTURE TARGETS OF THE G.D.P. AND OP CONSUMPTION