دور السياسة الإقتصادية في جذب الإستثمار الأجنبي المباشر - دراسة حالة اليمن-

I

ءاﺪـﻫﻹا

:ﻰـﻟإ

ﻲــﺑأ و ﻲـﻣأ ﻦـﻴﻤﻳﺮﻜﻟا ﻦﻳﺰـﻳﺰﻌﻟا 

ﻲﺘﻠﺋﺎﻋ داﺮــﻓأ 

بﺎــﺒﺣﻷا و ءﺎـﻗﺪــﺻﻷا 

ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟا ﻲﻓ راﺮﺣﻷا ﻊﻴﻤﺟ 

راﻮﻃﻷا ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻲﻓ ﻲﺗﺬﺗﺎﺳأ ﻞﻛ 

يدﻻوا و ﻲﺘﺟوز ﻰﻟإ 

II

ﺮـﻜﺷ ﺮﻳﺪﻘﺗو

ﻞﻠﺣأ و ،يﺮﻣأ ﺮﺴﻳ و ،يرﺪﺻ ﻲﻟ حﺮﺷ يﺬﻟا ،ﻻوأ ﻪﻟ ﺮﻜﺸﻟا و ﷲ ﺪﻤﺤﻟا ،ﻊﺿاﻮﺘﻤﻟا ﻞﻤﻌﻟا اﺬﻫ مﺎﻤﺗإ ﻲﻓ ﻲﻨﻘﻓوو ،ﻲﻟﻮﻗ ﻪﻘﻔﻳ ،ﻲﻧﺎﺴﻟ ﻦﻣ ةﺪﻘﻋ

ﻦﻴﻌﻣ ﺮﻴﺧ ﻮﻬﻓ ﺖﻠﻛﻮﺗ ﻪﻴﻠﻋ و ﺖﻨﻌﺘﺳا ﻪﺑ كﻮﻠﻤﻟا ﻚﻠﻣ

حﺎﺘﻔﻣرﻮﺘﻛﺪــﻟا ذﺎﺘــﺳﻻا:ﻞﺿﺎـﻔﻟا يذﺎﺘــﺳأ ﻰــﻟإ ﻞـــﻳﺰﺠﻟا ﺮﻜــﺸﻟﺎﺑ مﺪــﻘﺗأ ﺎــﻤﻛ ـﻛ ﻲـﻟ مﺪﻗ يﺬﻟا ﺢﻟﺎﺻ اﺪـﺑأ ﻲـﻠﻋ ﻞـﺨﺒﻳ ﻢـﻟ و ﺢـﺼﻨﻟا و ﻪـﻴﺟﻮﺘﻟا و ،نﻮـﻌﻟا ﻞ

،ﻚﻟذ ﻲﻓ

نﻮﻌﻟا و ةﺪﻋﺎﺴﻤﻟﺎﺑ يﺪﻤﺑ ﻢﻫﺎﺳ ﻦﻣ ﻞﻛ ﻰﻟإ ﻞـﺜﻣ

رﻮﺘﻛﺪـﻟا ﻦﻴـﻣأ ﺮـﺻﺎﻧ

ﻲﻃﺎــﺒﻘﻟا ﻲــﻠﻋ ﺪــﻤﺣأ ،

و ﻞــﻤﻌﻟا اﺬــﻫ زﺎــﺠﻧإ ﻞﻴﺒــﺳ ﻲــﻓ ﺮﻃﺎــﺧ قرﺎــﻃ ذﺎﺘــﺳﻻا

.ﻊﺿاﻮﺘﻤﻟا

III

تﺎﻌﯾرﺷﺗﻟاو تارارﻘﻟاو تاءارﺟﻹاو بﯾﻟﺎﺳﻻا نﻣ ﺔﻋوﻣﺟﻣ نﻋ ﺔﯾدﺎﺻﺗﻗﻻا ﺔﺳﺎﯾﺳﻟا رﺑﻌﺗ ﺔﯾدﺎﺻﺗﻗﻻا دراوﻣﻠﻟ لﺛﻣﻻا مادﺧﺗﺳﻻا لﻼﺧ نﻣ ﺔﯾدﺎﺻﺗﻗﻻا ةﺎﯾﺣﻟا مﯾظﻧﺗﻟ ﺔﻟودﻟا ﺎﻫردﺻﺗ ﻲﺗﻟا ﻲﻠﺧادﻟا نزاوﺗﻟا قﯾﻘﺣﺗو لﯾﻐﺷﺗﻟا تﺎﯾوﺗﺳﻣ ﻊﻓرو يدﺎﺻﺗﻗﻻا وﻣﻧﻟا تﻻدﻌﻣ ﻊﻓر فدﻬﺑ ﺔﺣﺎﺗﻣﻟا رﺎﺧﻟاو ﻲﺑﻧﺟﻻا رﺎﻣﺛﺗﺳﻻا ﺎﻬﻣﻫا دﺎﺻﺗﻗﻻا ﺎﻬﯾﻠﻋ دﻣﺗﻌﯾ لﻣاوﻋ ةدﻋ ﻲﻓ رﯾﺛﺄﺗﻟا لﻼﺧ نﻣ ﻲﺟ

.رﺷﺎﺑﻣﻟا

،ﺔﯾدﺎﺻﺗﻗﻻا تﺎﺳﺎﯾﺳﻟا لﺻﻔﻣ لﻛﺷﺑ ﺔﺳاردﻟا تﻟوﺎﻧﺗ دﻘﻓ سﺎﺳﻷا اذﻫ ﻰﻠﻋو ﻲﻫو

و ،ﺔﯾﻟﺎﻣﻟا ﺔﺳﺎﯾﺳﻟا ،ﺔﯾدﻘﻧﻟا ﺔﺳﺎﯾﺳﻟا ﺔﯾرﺎﺟﺗﻟا ﺔﺳﺎﯾﺳﻟا

لﻣﺎﺷ روﺻﺗ ﻊﺿو ﻰﻟإ ﺔﻓﺎﺿﻹﺎﺑ ،

ﻟا ﻲﺑﻧﺟﻷا رﺎﻣﺛﺗﺳﻺﻟ ﺔﺋﯾﺑﻟا ﻰﻟإ ﻪﺑاذﺗﺟا ﻲﻓ ﺔﯾدﺎﺻﺗﻗﻻا ﺔﺳﺎﯾﺳﻟا رودو ﻪﺗﯾﻣﻫأ ثﯾﺣ نﻣ ؛رﺷﺎﺑﻣ

تﺎﺳﺎﯾﺳﻟا ﻊﻗاو ﺔﺳاردﻟا تﺳﻛﻋ ﺎﻣﻛ .ﺔﯾﻣﺎﻧﻟا لودﻟا ﻲﻓ رﺎﻣﺛﺗﺳﻻا ﻪﺟوﺗ ﻲﺗﻟا تﺎﻗوﻌﻣﻟاو ﺔﯾﻧﻣﯾﻟا ﺎﻧﺑ مﺗ ثﯾﺣ ؛رﺷﺎﺑﻣﻟا ﻲﺑﻧﺟﻻا رﺎﻣﺛﺗﺳﻻﺎﺑ ﺎﻬﺗﻗﻼﻋو ﺔﯾﻧﻣﯾﻟا ﺔﯾدﺎﺻﺗﻗﻻا نﯾﺑ طﺑرﻠﻟ ﻲﺿﺎﯾر جذوﻣﻧ ء

رﯾﻐﺗﻣﻟا أو تا ﺎﻬﻠﻣﺷ ﻲﺗﻟا تارﯾﻐﺗﻣﻟا نﯾﺑ ﺔﺋﺎﺻﺣإ ﺔﻟﻻد تاذ ﺔﯾﺑﺎﺟﯾإ ﺔﻗﻼﻋ دوﺟو ﺞﺋﺎﺗﻧﻟا ترﻬظ

:ﻲﺗﻵﺎﻛ جذوﻣﻧﻟا -

رﺎﻣﺛﺗــــﺳﻻا قﻓدــــﺗو ﻲﻟﺎــــﻣﺟﻻا ﻲــــﻠﺣﻣﻟا ﺞﺗﺎــــﻧﻟا نﯾــــﺑ ﺎﯾﺋﺎــــﺻﺣا ﺔــــﻟاد ﺔــــﯾﺑﺎﺟﯾا ﺔــــﻗﻼﻋ دــــﺟوﺗ  .رﺷﺎﺑﻣﻟا ﻲﺑﻧﺟﻻا رﺎﻣﺛﺗــﺳﻻا قﻓدــﺗو يرﺎــﺟﻟا بﺎــﺳﺣﻟا زــﺟﻋ نﯾــﺑ ﺎﯾﺋﺎــﺻﺣا ﺔــﻟاد ﺔﯾﺑﻠــﺳ ﺔــﻗﻼﻋ دــﺟوﺗ  ﻲــﺑﻧﺟﻻا

رﺷﺎﺑﻣﻟا . .رﺷﺎﺑﻣﻟا ﻲﺑﻧﺟﻻا رﺎﻣﺛﺗﺳﻻا قﻓدﺗو ﺔﯾﻧازﯾﻣﻟا زﺟﻋ نﯾﺑ ﺎﯾﺋﺎﺻﺣا ﺔﻟاد ﺔﻗﻼﻋ دﺟوﺗ  ﻲـــﺑﻧﺟﻻا رﺎﻣﺛﺗـــﺳﻻا قﻓدـــﺗو ضارـــﻗﻻا ﻰـــﻠﻋ ةدــﺋﺎﻔﻟا رﻌـــﺳ نﯾـــﺑ ﺎﯾﺋﺎـــﺻﺣا ﺔـــﻟاد ﺔـــﻗﻼﻋ دــﺟوﺗ  ﻼـﺧ رـﺷﺎﺑﻣﻟا ﻲـﺑﻧﺟﻻا رﺎﻣﺛﺗـﺳﻻا قﻓدـﺗ ﻰـﻠﻋ ﺎﺑﻠﺳ رﺛا ةدﺋﺎﻔﻟا رﻌﺳ لدﻌﻣ نا يأ رﺷﺎﺑﻣﻟا ل

دﻟا ةرـﺗﻓ ﺔــﺳار ﻼــﺧ لــظ ةدـﺋﺎﻔﻟا رﻌــﺳ نﻷ ﺔـﺟﯾﺗﻧ ﺎﺑذـﺑذﺗﻣ ﺔــﺳاردﻟا ةرـﺗﻓ ل

ﻰــﻠﻋ ﺎﺑﻠــﺳ رـﺛا يذــﻟا

رﺷﺎﺑﻣﻟا ﻲﺑﻧﺟﻻا رﺎﻣﺛﺗﺳﻻا قﻓدﺗ رـﺷﺎﺑﻣﻟا ﻲـﺑﻧﺟﻻا رﺎﻣﺛﺗـﺳﻻا قﻓدﺗو مﺧﺿﺗﻟا لدﻌﻣ نﯾﺑ ﺎﯾﺋﺎﺻﺣا ﺔﻟاد ﺔﯾﺑﺎﺟﯾا ﺔﻗﻼﻋ دﺟوﺗ  .ﻲطﻔﻧﻟا رﯾﻏ ﻲﻟﺎﻣﺟﻻا ﻲﻠﺣﻣﻟا ﺞﺗﺎﻧﻟا ﻲﻓ وﻣﻧﻟا ةدﺎﯾز لﻌﻔﺑ كﻟذو

ﺎـــﻋ لﻛـــﺷﺑو ـــﻓ م

ﺈ ﺞﺗﺎـــﻧﻟا ﻰـــﻠﻋ دـــﻣﺗﻌﯾ نﻣﯾـــﻟا ﻲـــﻓ رـــﺷﺎﺑﻣﻟا ﻲـــﺑﻧﺟﻷا رﺎﻣﺛﺗـــﺳﻻا قﻓدـــﺗ ﺔـــﺳﺎﯾﺳ ن

ﻲﻟﺎﻣﺟﻹا ﻲﻠﺣﻣﻟا

، يرﺎﺟﻟا بﺎﺳﺣﻟا زﺟﻋ

، ﺔـﯾﻧازﯾﻣﻟا زﺟﻋ

، ةدـﺋﺎﻔﻟا رﻌـﺳ

، ﺎـﻘﻓو مﺧـﺿﺗﻟا لدـﻌﻣو

.ﻲطﺧﻟا جذوﻣﻧﻟا

:ﺔﯾﺣﺎﺗﻔﻣﻟا تﺎﻣﻠﻛﻟا

نﻣﯾﻟا ،مﺧﺿﺗﻟا ،رﺷﺎﺑﻣﻟا ،ﻲﺑﻧﺟﻷا .

IV

decisions, and legislations issued by the state in order to regulate the economic life through the optimal usage of the available economic resources. This is done to increase the economic growth rates, the employment levels, and to achieve the internal and external equilibrium through affecting several factors that the economy depends on and among these essential factors is the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). Based on this fact, the study tackles in detail the economic policies including monetary, fiscal, and trading policies. In addition, this study posits a comprehensive conception concerning the foreign direct investment and showing its importance, the role of economic policy in attracting this investment into the Yemeni environment, and showing the obstacles encountering implementing such investment in developing countries.

This study also demonstrates the reality of economic policies in Yemen and its relationship with the foreign direct investment. In this regard, a mathematical model was composed for obtaining the relationship among the study’s different variables. The study reveals that there is a statistically significant positive relationships between the variables as follows:

- There is a statistically significant positive relationship between the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the flow of the foreign direct investment.

- There is a statistically significant negative relationship between the current accounting’s deficit and the flow of the foreign direct investment.

- There is a statistically significant relationship between the budget’s deficit and the flow of the foreign direct investment.

- There is a statistically significant relationship between the interest rate on lending and the flow of the foreign direct investment. This means that the interest rate negatively influences the foreign direct investment because of the fluctuation and instability that the interest rate shows during the period of conducting this study.

- There is a statistically significant positive relationship between the inflation rate and the flow of the foreign direct investment due to the growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) caused by non-oil resources.

In general and according to the linear mathematical postulated model, the flow policy of the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Yemen depends on several variables including the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), current accounting’s deficit, budget’s deficit, interest rate, and the inflation rate.

Keywords:Economic policies, Fiscal policies, Monetary policies, External Trade, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Inflation, Yemen.

V

مﻗرﻟا عوﺿوﻣﻟا

ﺔﺣﻔﺻﻟا

1.3 ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻼﻟ ﺔﻴﻨﻁﻭﻟﺍ ﺔﻤﻅﻨﻷﺍ ﻥﺄﺸﺒ ﺕﻘﻘﺤﺘ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﻼﻴﺩﻌﺘﻟﺍ

120

2.3 ﺮﺷﺎﺒﻤﻟا ﻲﺒﻨﺟﻷا رﺎﻤﺜﺘﺳﻹا تﺎﯿﺋﺎﺼﺣإ ﻊﯿﻤﺠﺘﻟ ﺔﻣﺪﺨﺘﺴﻤﻟا قﺮﻄﻟا

133

3.3 ﺔﻴﺒﺭﻌﻟﺍ لﻭﺩﻟﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺓﺩﺭﺍﻭﻟﺍ ﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﺕﺎﻘﻓﺩﺘ ﺕﺎﻨﺎﻴﺒ ﻊﻴـﻤﺠﺘ ﻕﺭﻁ

134

4.3

ﺔﻴﻤﺎﻨﻟﺍﻭ .

140

5.3 .ﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﺕﺍﺩﺩﺤﻤ 153

6.3 لﻭﺩ ﻲﻓ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﻟﺍ ﺏﺎﺴﺤﻟﺍ ﺯﺠﻋ لﻴﻭﻤﺘ ﻲﻓ ﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﺔﻤﻫﺎﺴﻤ

.ﺎﺒﻭﺭﻭﺃ ﺏﻭﻨﺠ 190

1.4 ﺔـﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘـﻗﻻﺍ ﺕﺎﻋﺎﻁﻘﻟﺍ ﺏﺴﺤ ﻲﻘﻴﻘﺤﻟﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﻤﺠﻻﺍ ﻲﻠﺤﻤﻟﺍ ﺞﺘﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﺭﻭﻁﺘ ﺓﺭـﺘﻔﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ

) - 1990 (ﻡ 1994

201

2.4 ﻟﺍ ﺭﻭﻁﺘ ﺩﺭﺍﻭ

ﺕﺍ ) ﺓﺭﺘﻔﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﺭﺎﺠﻟﺍ ﺭﺎﻌﺴﻷﺎﺒ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍﻭ - 1990

(ﻡ 1994 203

3.4 ﺔـﺸﻴﻌﻤﻟﺍ ﻯﻭﺘﺴﻤ ﺱﺎﻴﻘﻟ ﺔـﻴﺴﻴﺌﺭﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺸﺅـﻤﻟﺍ

204

4.4 ) ﺓﺭﺘﻔﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ لﺎﻴﺭﻟﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺭﻻﻭﺩﻟﺍ لـﻴﻭﺤﺘ ﺭﻌﺴ ﺭﻭـﻁﺘ - 1990

(ﻡ 1994 205

5.4 ﻕﻭﺴﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺭﻻﻭﺩﻟﺍ لﺒﺎﻘﻤ ﻲﻨﻤﻴﻟﺍ لﺎﻴﺭﻠﻟ ﻑﺭﺼﻟﺍ ﺭﺎﻌﺴﺃ ﺭﻭﻁﺘ ﺓﺭﺘﻔﻠﻟ ﺔﻴﺯﺍﻭﻤﻟﺍ

) ـ 1990 (ﻡ 1994

207

6.4 ﺔـﻴﺭﺎﺠﻟﺍ ﺭﺎﻌﺴﻷﺎﺒ ﺕﺎﻋﻭﻓﺩﻤﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺯـﻴﻤ ﺭﻭﻁﺘ ﺓﺭـﺘﻔﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ

- 1990 ﻡ 1994 208

7.4 ﺔـﻤﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺔـﻨﺯﺍﻭﻤﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺸﺅـﻤ ﻡﻫﺃ ﺭﻭﻁﺘ ﺕﺍﻭﻨﺴﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ

- 1990 ﻡ 1994

209

8.4 ﺓﺭﺘﻔﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻱﺩﻘﻨﻟﺍ ﺽﺭﻌﻟﺍ ﺭﻭﻁﺘ - 1990

ﻡ 1994 210

9.4 ﻲﻓ ﺔـﻴﺠﺭﺎﺨﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﻁﺎﻴﺘﺤﻻﺍ ﺭﻭـﻁﺘ ) ﺓﺭـﺘﻔﻟﺍ

- 1990 (ﻡ 1994

211

10.4 (ﺔﻨﺴﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻭﺌﻤﻟﺍ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺍ) ﺔﻴﺭﺎﺠﺘﻟﺍ ﻙﻭﻨﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺩﺌﺍﻭﻔﻟﺍ ﺭﺎﻌﺴﺃ لﻜﻴﻫ

214

11.4 )ﺓﺭﺘﻔﻟﺍ لﻼﺨ ﺔﻴﻠﺤﻤﻟﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﻭﻤﻟﺍ ﺓﻭﺠﻓﻭ ﻲﻟﺎﻤﺠﻹﺍ ﻲﻠﺤﻤﻟﺍ ﺞﺘﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﺭﻭﻁﺘ - 1995

(ﻡ 2004 218

12.4 ﺓﺭﺘﻔﻟﺍ لﻼﺨ ﻑﺭﺼﻟﺍ ﺭﺎﻌﺴﺃ ﺭﻭﻁﺘ - 1996

ﻡ 2004 224

13.4 ﻲﻓ ﺯﺠﻌﻟﺍ ﺭﻭﻁﺘ )ﺓﺭﺘﻔﻟﺍ لﻼﺨ ﺔﻟﻭﺩﻠﻟ ﺔﻤﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺔﻨﺯﺍﻭﻤﻟﺍ

ـ 1995 (ﻡ 2004

226

14.4 ) ﺓﺭﺘﻔﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻲﻘﻴﻘﺤﻟﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﻤﺠﻹﺍ ﻲﻠﺤﻤﻟﺍ ﺞﺘﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﺭﻭﻁﺘ - 1995

( 2003 229

15.4 ) ﺓﺭﺘﻔﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﺭﺎﺠﻟﺍ ﺭﺎﻌﺴﻻﺎﺒ ﺕﺎﻤﺍﺩﺨﺘﺴﻻﺍﻭ ﺩﺭﺍﻭﻤﻟﺍ ﺭﻭﻁﺘ - 1995

(ﻡ 2003

230

16.4 ﺓﺭﺘﻔﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﺸﻴﻌﻤﻟﺍ ﻯﻭﺘﺴﻤﺒ ﺎﺴﺎﻴﻗ ﺕﺍﺭﺸﺅﻤﻟﺍ ﻡﻫﺃ ﺭﻭﻁﺘ ﻡ 1995

-

ﻡ 2002

231

VI

18.4 ﺓﺭﺘﻔﻠﻟ ﻱﺩـﻘﻨﻟﺍ ﺢـﺴﻤﻟﺍ - 2005

2010 246

19.4 ) ﺔﻨﺴﻟ ﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﺕﺎﻘﻓﺩﺘ / 1990

.( 2010 248

20.4 ﺎﻘﻓﺪﺗ ﻢﺠﺣ ةﺮﺘﻔﻠﻟ ﺮﺷﺎﺒﻤﻟا ﻲﺒﻨﺟﻷا رﺎﻤﺜﺘﺳﻻا ت

) 1995 / 2010 ( 249

21.4 ﺭـﺸﺅﻤﻟﺍ ﺔﺠﺭﺩ ﺍ

ﻥـﻤﻴﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﺥﺎﻨﻤﻟ ﺔـﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺕﺎﺴﺎﻴﺴﻠﻟ ﻥﻭﻜﻤﻟ .

264

22.4 ﺭﺍﺩﺤﻨﻻﺍ ﺝﺫﺎﻤﻨﻟ ﺔﻔﻠﺘﺨﻤﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻀﺎﻴﺭﻟﺍ ﻎﻴﺼﻟﺍ ﻥﻴﺒ ﺔﻨﺭﺎﻘﻤ

274

23.4 ﺕﺍﺭﻴﻐﺘﻤﻟ (ﺭﻴﻐﺘﻤ) ﺭﺸﺅﻤ لﻜﻟ ﺔﻤﻴﻗ ﻰﻠﻋﺃﻭ ﺔﻤﻴﻗ لﻗﺃﻭ ﺔﻴﻭﻨﺴﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺒﺎﺴﺤﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻁﺴﻭﺘﻤﻟﺍ

ﺔﺴﺍﺭﺩﻟﺍ 282

24.4 ﺭﺎﺒﺘﺨﺍ ﺞﺌﺎﺘﻨ Kolmogorov-Smirnov Z

.ﺕﺎﻨﺎﻴﺒﻠﻟ ﻲﻌﻴﺒﻁﻟﺍ ﻊﻴﺯﻭﺘﻟﺍ ﻁﺭﺸﻟ

285

25.4 .ﺕﺭﻴﻐﺘﻤﻠﻟ ﻲﺘﺍﺫ ﻁﺎﺒﺘﺭﺃ ﺩﻭﺠﻭ ﻡﺩﻌﻟ ﻥﻭﺴﺘﺍﻭ ﻥﻭﺭﺍﺩ ﺭﺎﺒﺘﺨﺍ ﺞﺌﺎﺘﻨ

286

26.4 ﻡﺩﻋ ﺭﺎﺒﺘﺨﺍ لﺨﺍﺩﺘ ﺩﻭﺠﻭ

ﺔﻠﻘﺘﺴﻤﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﻴﻐﺘﻤﻠﻟ .

287

27.4 ﺩﻭﺠﻭ ﻡﺩﻋ ﺭﺎﺒﺘﺨﺍ ﻡﺨﻀﺘ

ﻥﻴﺎﺒﺘ .ﺔﻠﻘﺘﺴﻤﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﻴﻐﺘﻤﻟﺍ ﻥﻴﺒ

288

28.4 لﻴﻠﺤﺘ ﺞﺌﺎﺘﻨ ﺀﺍﺩﻻﺍ ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻜﻭ ﻑﺍﺭﺤﻨﻻﺍ ﺢﻴﺤﺼﺘ ﻥﻴﺒ ﻁﻴﺴﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻁﺨﻟﺍ ﺭﺍﺩﺤﻨﻻﺍ

290

VII

مﻗرﻟا عوﺿوﻣﻟا

ﺔﺣﻔﺻﻟا

1.2 ﺱﺒﻴﻠﻓ ﻰﻨﺤﻨﻤ

76

1.3 ﺇ ﻤﻀﻨ ﻡﺎ ﺓﺩﻴﺍﺯﺘﻤ ﺩﺍﺩﻋﺄﺒ ﺔﻴﻤﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺓﺭﺎﺠﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻤﻅﻨﻤ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻥﺍﺩﻠﺒﻟﺍ

118

2.3 لﻭﺩ ﻲﻓ ﻲﻟﺎﻤﺠﻹﺍ ﻲﻠﺤﻤﻟﺍ ﺞﺘﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﻤ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻜ ﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﺕﺎﻘﻓﺩﺘ ﻡﻴﻴﻘﺘ

ﺩﺎﺤﺘﻻﺍ ﺍ

ﺓﺭﺘﻔﻟﺍ لﻼﺨ ﻲﺒﻭﺭﻭﻷﺍ ﺩﺎﺤﺘﻻﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺀﺎﻀﻋﻷﺍ ﺔﺜﻴﺩﺤﻟﺍ لﻭﺩﻟﺍﻭ ﻲﺒﻭﺭﻭﻷ - 2005 . 2009

174

.ﻲﻟﺎﻤﺠﻹﺍ ﻲﻠﺤﻤﻟﺍ لﺨﺩﻟﺍ ﻥﻤ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻜ ﺕﺎﻜﺭﺸﻟﺎﺒ ﺔﻘﻠﻌﺘﻤﻟﺍ لﺨﺩﻟﺍ ﺔﺒﻴﺭﻀ لﺩﻌﻤ ﻡﻴﻴﻘﺘ 3.3

175

1.4 ﺓﺭﺘﻔﻟﺍ لﻼﺨ ﺩﻭﻘﻨﻟﺍ ﻪﺒﺸﻭ ﺩﻭﻘﻨﻟﺍ ﺭﻭﻁﺘ 2005

- 2010 245

2.4 ﺒﺭﻭﺩ ﻡﻴﻗ ،ﻰﻟﻭﻷﺍ ﺔﺠﺭﺩﻟﺍ ﻥﻤ ﻲﺘﺍﺫ ﻁﺎﺒﺘﺭﺍ ﺏﺎﻴﻏ ﻭﺃ ﺩﻭﺠﻭ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺭﻴﺸﺘ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﻭﺴﺘﺍﻭ ﻥ

ﺩﺩﺤﻤ ﺭﻴﻏ ﺭﺎﺒﺘﺨﻻﺍ لﻌﺠﻴﺘﻟﺍ ﻭﺃ 277

3.4 ﻥﻤ ﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻻﺍ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ - 1995

2010 283

VIII

سﺮﻬﻓ

تﺎﻳﻮﺘﺤﻤﻟا

عوﺿوﻣﻟا

ﺔﺣﻔﺻﻟا

ﺀﺍﺩﻫﻹﺍ

I

ﺭﻴﺩﻘﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﺭﻜﺸﻟﺍ

II

ﺔﻴﺒﺭﻌﻟﺍ ﺔﻐﻠﻟﺎﺒ ﺹﺨﻠﻤﻟﺍ

III

ﺔﻴﺯﻴﻠﺠﻨﻹﺍ ﺔﻐﻠﻟﺎﺒ ﺹﺨﻠﻤﻟﺍ

IV

لﻭﺍﺩﺠﻟﺍ ﺔﻤﺌﺎﻗ

V

لﺎﻜﺸﻷﺍ ﺔﻤﺌﺎﻗ

VII

ﺕﺎﻴﻭﺘﺤﻤﻟﺍ ﺔﻤﺌﺎﻗ

VIII

ﺔﻣﺎﻌﻟا ﺔﻣﺪﻘﻤﻟا

أ - ح

ﺙﺤﺒﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻜﺸﺇ ﺏ

ﺙﺤﺒﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﻀﺭﻓ ﺩ

ﺃ ﺙﺤﺒﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻤﻫ ﺩ

ﺃ ﻑﺍﺩﻫ ﺙﺤﺒﻟﺍ ـﻫ

ﻉﻭﻀﻭﻤﻟﺍ ﺭﺎﻴﺘﺨﺍ ﺏﺎﺒﺴﺃ

ـﻫ

ﻲﻨﺎﻜﻤﻟﺍﻭ ﻲﻨﻤﺯﻟﺍ ﺭﺎﻁﻹﺍ

ـﻫ

ﻊﺒﺘﻤﻟﺍ ﺞﻬﻨﻤﻟﺍ ﻭ

ﺙﺤﺒﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻗﻭﻌﻤ ﻭ

ﺔﻘﺒﺎﺴﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺴﺍﺭﺩﻟﺍ ﻭ

ﺎﻬﺘﺎﻤﻴﺴﻘﺘﻭ ﺔﺴﺍﺭﺩﻟﺍ لﻜﻴﻫ ﻱ

ﻞﺼﻔﻟا ﺔﻳدﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻا ﺔﺳﺎﻴﺴﻟا :لوﻷا

1 - 52

ﻬﻤﺘﻟﺍ ﺩﻴـ

2

ﺎـﮭﻓادھأو ﺔﯾدﺎﺻﺗﻗﻷا ﺔـﺳﺎﯾﺳﻟا موـﮭﻔﻣ :لوﻷا ثﺣﺑﻣﻟا .

3

: لﻭﻷﺍ ﺏﻠﻁﻤﻟﺍ ﺔـﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﻡﻭﻬﻔﻤ

ﺔـﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻹﺍ

3

ﺔـﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺔـﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﺱـﺴﺃ :ﻲـﻨﺎﺜﻟﺍ ﺏـﻠﻁﻤﻟﺍ

4

IX

:ﻲـﻧﺎﺛﻟا ثﺣﺑﻣﻟا

رﺎطإ ﺎﮭﻓادھأ قﯾﻘﺣﺗ ﻲﻓ ﺎﮭﻠﺷﻓ بﺎﺑﺳأو ﺎﮭﺣﺎﺟﻧ لﻣاوﻋو ﺔﯾدﺎﺻﺗﻗﻻا ﺔﺳﺎﯾﺳﻟا

9

ﻟﺍ ﺏﻠﻁﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﻨﺎﺜ

ﺔـﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻹﺍ ﺔـﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﺭﺎـﻁﺇ :

9

ﺏﻠﻁﻤﻟﺍ ﺔـﺤﺠﺎﻨ ﺔـﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺔﺴﺎﻴﺴ ﻲﻨﺒﺘ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻤﻫﺎﺴﻤﻟﺍ لﻤﺍﻭﻌﻟﺍ:ﻲﻨﺎﺜﻟﺍ

10

لﻭﻷﺍ ﺏـﻠﻁﻤﻟﺍ ﺎـﻬﻓﺍﺩﻫﺃ ﻕـﻴﻘﺤﺘ ﻲﻓ ﺔـﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺕﺎﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ لـﺸﻓ ﺏﺎﺒﺴﺃ :

15

ثﻟﺎﺛﻟا ثﺣﺑﻣﻟا :

ﺔﯾدﺎﺻﺗﻗﻻا ﺔﺳﺎﯾﺳﻟا تاودأ 17

:لﻭﻷﺍ ﺏﻠﻁﻤﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﻭﻁﺨ

ﺔـﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺔﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ

17

ﺏﻠﻁﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﻨﺎﺜﻟﺍ

ﺎﻬـﻓﺍﺩﻫﺃﻭ ﺔـﻴﻟﺎﻤﻟﺍ ﺔـﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﻡﻭـﻬﻔﻤ :

20

ـﺜﻟﺍ ﺏﻠﻁﻤﻟﺍ ﺙﻟﺎ

ﺔـﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺔﻴﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﻑﺍﺩﻫﺃ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺔـﻴﻟﺎﻤﻟﺍ ﺔﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﺭـﻴﺜﺄﺘ :

33

ﻟﺍ ﺏﻠﻁﻤﻟﺍ ﻊﺒﺍﺭ

: .ﺎﻬﻓﺍﺩﻫﺃﻭ ﺔـﻴﺩﻘﻨﻟﺍ ﺔﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﻡﻭﻬﻔﻤ

37

ﺱﻤﺎﺨﻟﺍ ﺏﻠﻁﻤﻟﺍ :

ﻟﺍ ﺭﺎﺠﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﺴﺎﻴﺴ ﻴ

ﺔ 42

لﻭﻷﺍ لﺼﻔﻟﺍ ﺔﺼﻼﺨ 52

ﺔﺳﺎﻴﺴﻟا تاودأ:ﻲﻧﺎﺜﻟا ﻞﺼﻔﻟا رﺎﺠﺘﻟاو ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻤﻟاو ﺔﻳﺪﻘﻨﻟا

ﻳ ﺔ 53 - 101

ﻬﻤﺘﻟﺍ ﺩﻴـ 54

ﺑﻣﻟا ﺔﯾدﻘﻧﻟاو ﺔﯾﻟﺎﻣﻟا نﯾﺗﺳﺎﯾﺳﻟا تاودأ :لوﻷا ثﺣ 55

.ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻤﻟﺍ ﺔﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﻭﺩﺃ :لﻭﻷﺍ ﺏﻠﻁﻤﻟﺍ

55

ﺔﻴﺩﻘﻨﻟﺍ ﺔﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﻭﺩﺃ :ﻲﻨﺎﺜﻟﺍ ﺏﻠﻁﻤﻟﺍ .

66

ﻲﻧﺎﺛﻟا ثﺣﺑﻣﻟا ﺔﯾﻟﺎﻣﻟاو ﺔﯾدﻘﻧﻟا ﺔﺳﺎﯾﺳﻟا نﯾﺑ ﺔﻗﻼﻌﻟا :

74

:لﻭﻷﺍ ﺏﻠﻁﻤﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺩﻘﻨﻟﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻤﻟﺍ ﺔﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﻥﻴﺒ ﻕﻴﺴﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻤﻫﺃ

74

ﺕﺎﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﻥﻴﺒ ﻕﻴﺴﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺩﻭﺠﻭ ﻡﺩﻋ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺔﺒﺘﺭﺘﻤﻟﺍ ﺭﺎﺜﻵﺍ :ﻲﻨﺎﺜﻟﺍ ﺏﻠﻁﻤﻟﺍ

78

ﺔﻴﺩﻘﻨﻟﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻤﻟﺍ ﺔﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﻥﻴﺒ ﻁﺒﺍﺭﺘﻟﺍ :ﺙﻟﺎﺜﻟﺍ ﺏﻠﻁﻤﻟﺍ

82

أ: ثﻟﺎﺛﻟا ثﺣﺑﻣﻟا تاود

ﻟا ﺔﯾﺟﯾﺗارﺗﺳاو رﺎﺟﺗﻟا ﺔﺳﺎﯾﺳ

ﯾ ﺔ 93

:لﻭﻷﺍ ﺏﻠﻁﻤﻟﺍ

ﺕﺍﻭﺩﺃ ﺔﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺭﺎﺠﺘﻟﺍ

.

93

ﺕﺎﻴﺠﻴﺘﺍﺭﺘﺴﺍ :ﻲﻨﺎﺜﻟﺍ ﺏﻠﻁﻤﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺭﺎﺠﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ

. 95

ﻲﻨﺎﺜﻟﺍ لﺼﻔﻟﺍ ﺔﺼﻼﺨ 101

X

ﻪﺑاﺬﺘﺟا

103 -

ﺩﻴـﻬﻤﺘﻟﺍ 103

رﺎـﺛآو ﮫﺗﯾﻣھأو رﺷﺎـﺑﻣﻟا ﻲﺑﻧﺟﻷا رﺎـﻣﺛﺗﺳﻻا موـﮭﻔﻣ:لوﻷا ثﺣﺑﻣﻟا ﮫﺑاذﺗﺟا

104

ﻪﺘﻴﻤﻫﺃﻭ ﺭﺸﺎـﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍ ﺭﺎـﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﻡﻭـﻬﻔﻤ :لﻭﻷﺍ ﺏﻠﻁﻤﻟﺍ

104

ﻪﺘﻴﻗﺭﺘ ﻭ ﻪﺒﺍﺫﺘﺠﻻ ﺔﻴﺘﺍﻭﻤﻟﺍ ﻑﻭﺭــﻅﻟﺍ :ﻲﻨﺎﺜﻟﺍ ﺏﻠﻁﻤﻟﺍ 112

ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍ ﺭﺎـﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﺕﺍﺀﺎﺼﺤﺇ ﻊـﻴﻤﺠﺘﻟ ﺔـﻤﺩﺨﺘﺴﻤﻟﺍ ﻕﺭـﻁﻟﺍ:ﺙﻟﺎﺜﻟﺍ ﺏﻠﻁﻤﻟﺍ ﺭـﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ

128

ﮫـﺗﺎﻗوﻌﻣو رﺎـﻣﺛﺗﺳﻻا قﻓدـﺗ :ﻲﻧﺎـﺛﻟا ثﺣﺑﻣﻟا ﺔـﯾﺑرﻌﻟاو ﺔـﯾﻣﺎﻧﻟا لودـﻟا ﻲﻓ

136

ﺭـﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍ ﺭﺎـﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﻥﻤ ﺔـﻴﻤﺎﻨﻟﺍ لﻭﺩﻟﺍ ﺏﻴﺼﻨ :لﻭﻷﺍ ﺏﻠﻁﻤﻟﺍ

136

ﺔـﻴﺒﺭﻌﻟﺍ لﻭﺩﻟﺎﺒ ﺭﺎـﻤﺜﺘﺴﻼﻟ ﺔـﻘﻴﻌﻤﻟﺍ ﺭـﺼﺎﻨﻌﻟﺍ :ﻲﻨﺎـﺜﻟﺍ ﺏﻠﻁﻤﻟﺍ

137

ﺔـﻴﺒﺭﻌﻟﺍ لﻭﺩﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺭﺸﺎـﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍ ﺭﺎـﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ :ﺙﻟﺎﺜﻟﺍ ﺏﻠﻁﻤﻟﺍ

139

ثﻟﺎﺛﻟا ثﺣﺑﻣﻟا :

تﺎﯾرظﻧﻟاو ﮫﺗاددﺣﻣ ،رﺷﺎﺑﻣﻟا ﻲﺑﻧﺟﻷا رﺎﻣﺛﺗﺳﻻاو ﺔﻣﻟوﻌﻟا ةرﺳﻔﻣﻟا

143

ﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍﻭ ﺔﻤﻟﻭﻌﻟﺍ : لﻭﻷﺍ ﺏﻠﻁﻤﻟﺍ

143

:ﻲﻨﺎﺜﻟﺍ ﺏﻠﻁﻤﻟﺍ

ﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﺕﺎﺴﺴﺅﻤ ﺔﻔﻠﺨﺘﻤﻟﺍ لﻭﺩﻟ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺎﻬﺘﺎﻴﺩﺤﺘﻭ

ﱢلﻅ ﻲﻓ

ﻟﻭﻌﻟﺍ ﻤ

ﺔ

147

ﻟﺍ ﺏﻠﻁﻤﻟﺍ ﺙﻟﺎﺜ

: ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍ ﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﺕﺍﺩﺩﺤﻤ

152

:ﻊﺒﺍﺭﻟﺍ ﺏﻠﻁﻤﻟﺍ ﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻹﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﺒﻠﺴﻭ ﺕﺎﻴﺒﺎﺠﻴﺍ

158

ﺏﻠﻁﻤﻟﺍ

ﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻺﻟ ﺓﺭﺴﻔﻤﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﺭﻅﻨﻟﺍ : ﺱﻤﺎﺨﻟﺍ

161

ود :ﻊﺑارﻟا ثﺣﺑﻣﻟا ﻲﻓ ﺔﯾدﺎﺻﺗﻗﻻا ﺔﺳﺎﯾﺳﻟا ر

رﺎﻣﺛﺗﺳﻻا بذﺟ رﺷﺎﺑﻣﻟا ﻲﺑﻧﺟﻷا

171

ﺏﻠﻁﻤﻟﺍ ﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﺏﺫﺠ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻤﻟﺍ ﺔﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﺭﻭﺩ .لﻭﻷﺍ

171

ﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﺏﺫﺠ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﺩﻘﻨﻟﺍ ﺔﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﺭﻭﺩ .ﻲﻨﺎﺜﻟﺍ ﺏﻠﻁﻤﻟﺍ

177

ﺭﻭﺩ :ﺙﻟﺎﺜﻟﺍ ﺏﻠﻁﻤﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺭﺎﺠﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ

ﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﺏﺫﺠ ﻲﻓ 184

ﺙﻟﺎﺜﻟﺍ لﺼﻔﻟﺍ ﺔﺼﻼﺨ

192

XI

) ﻦﻣ ةﺮﺘﻔﻠﻟ 95

- 2010 (

ود و ﺎﻫر ﺬﺟ ﻲﻓ .رﺎﻤﺜﺘﺳﻻا ب

194 -

ﺩﻴــــﻬﻤﺘﻟﺍ

194

يدﺎﺻﺗﻗﻻا حﻼﺻﻻا ﺞﻣﺎﻧرﺑو ﻲﻧﻣﯾﻟا دﺎﺻﺗﻗﻻا تﺎﻧوﻛﻣ :لوﻻا ثﺣﺑﻣﻟا .

195

ﻲﻨﻤﻴﻟﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ لـﻜﻴﻫ:لﻭﻷﺍ ﺏﻠﻁﻤﻟﺍ

195

ﺏﻠﻁﻤﻟﺍ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺡﻼـﺼﻹﺍ ﺞﻤﺎﻨﺭﺒ ﺫﻴﻔﻨﺘ لﺒﻗ ﻲﻨﻤﻴﻟﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺔﻴﻌﻀﻭ :ﻲﻨﺎﺜﻟﺍ

) - 1990 .(ﻡ 1994

200

ﺓﺭﺘﻔﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺕﺎﺤﻼـﺼﻹﺍ ﺞـﻤﺎﻨﺭﺒ :ﺙﻟﺎﺜﻟﺍ ﺏﻠﻁﻤﻟﺍ - 95

. 2004 217

:ﻊﺒﺍﺭﻟﺍ ﺏﻠﻁﻤﻟﺍ

ﺔـﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﻉﺎﻀﻭﻷﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺡﻼـﺼﻹﺍ ﺞﻤﺎﻨﺭﺒ ﺫـﻴﻔﻨﺘ ﺞـﺌﺎﺘﻨ

228

ﺎﺛﻟا ثﺣﺑﻣﻟا ﻲﻧ

: اﻟ تﺎﺳﺎﯾﺳ دﺎﺻﺗﻗﻻا

ذﻧﻣ ﺔﻌﺑﺗﻣﻟا ﺔﯾ تﺎﺣﻼﺻﻻا ةرﺗﻓ

- 95 . 2010 236

ﺡﻼﺼﻻﺍ ﺓﺭﺘﻓ ﻲﻓ ﺔـﻴﻟﺎﻤﻟﺍ ﺔـﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ :لﻭﻷﺍ ﺏﻠﻁﻤﻟﺍ )

- 95 ( 2004

236

ﺔـﻴﺩﻘﻨﻟﺍ ﺔـﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ :ﻲﻨﺎﺜﻟﺍ ﺏﻠﻁﻤﻟﺍ

ﺕﺎﺤﻼﺼﻻﺍ ﺓﺭﺘﻓ ﻲﻓ

) - 95 .( 2004

238

) ﺓﺭﺘﻔﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻲﺠﺭﺎﺨﻟﺍ ﻉﺎـﻁﻘﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺴﺎﻴﺴ :ﺙﻟﺎﺜﻟﺍ ﺏﻠﻁﻤﻟﺍ - 95

.( 2004

240

ﺍ ﻤﻟ ﺏﻠﻁ ﻟﺍ :ﻊﺒﺍﺭ

ﺔﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺔﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﺓﺭﺘﻔﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻌﺒﺘﻤﻟﺍ

) 2005 - 2010 (

243

نـﻣﯾﻟا ﻲﻓ ﻲﺑﻧﺟﻷا رﺎـﻣﺛﺗﺳﻻا :ثﻟﺎﺛﻟا ثﺣﺑﻣﻟا ﮫﺑذﺟ ﻲﻓ ﺔﯾدﺎﺻﺗﻗﻻا ﺔﺳﺎﯾﺳﻟا رودو

248

ﻥـﻤﻴﻠﻟ ﺓﺩﺭﺍﻭﻟﺍ ﺓﺭـﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﺔـﻴﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ :لﻭﻷﺍ ﺏﻠﻁﻤﻟﺍ

248

ﺔـﻴﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻤـﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ :ﻲﻨﺎـﺜﻟﺍ ﺏﻠﻁﻤﻟﺍ ﺯﺎـﻐﻟﺍﻭ ﻁﻔﻨﻟﺍ ﻉﺎـﻁﻗ ﻲﻓ ﺓﺭـﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ

253

ﻥﺩـﻋ ﻲﻓ ﺓﺭـﺤﻟﺍ ﺔﻘﻁﻨﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺓﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﺔـﻴﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺎـﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ :ﺙﻟﺎﺜﻟﺍ ﺏﻠﻁﻤﻟﺍ

258

ﻟﺍ ﺏﻠﻁﻤﻟﺍ ﻊﺒﺍﺭ

: .ﻥﻤﻴﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻪﺘﺎﻗﻭﻌﻤﻭ ﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﺥﺎﻨﻤ ﻡﻴﻭﻘﺘ ﺭﻴﻴﺎﻌﻤ

262

:ﺱﻤﺎﺨﻟﺍ ﺏﻠﻁﻤﻟﺍ ﺭﻭﺩ

ﺔﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺔﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ

.ﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﺏﺫﺠ

266

ﻟا ثﺣﺑﻣﻟا ﻊﺑار

: رﺎﻣﺛﺗﺳﻹا بذﺟ ﻲﻓ ﺔﯾﻧﻣﯾﻟا ﺔﯾدﺎﺻﺗﻗﻹا ﺔﺳﺎﯾﺳﻟا رودﻟ ﺔﯾﺳﺎﯾﻗ ﺔﺳارد

رﺷﺎﺑﻣﻟا ﻲﺑﻧﺟﻷا )

- 95 .( 2010 272

:لﻭﻷﺍ ﺏﻠﻁﻤﻟﺍ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺱﺎﻴﻘﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺙﺤﺒﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺠﻬﻨﻤ

. 272

. ﺔﻴﻀﺎﻴﺭﻟﺍ ﺎﻬﻐﻴﺼﻭ ﺭﺍﺩﺤﻨﻻﺍ ﺝﺫﺎﻤﻨ ﺕﺎﻔﺼﺍﻭﻤ : ﻲﻨﺎﺜﻟﺍ ﺏﻠﻁﻤﻟﺍ 273

ﺙﻟﺎﺜﻟﺍ ﺏﻠﻁﻤﻟﺍ :

ﺔﺴﺍﺭﺩﻟﺍ ﺝﺫﻭﻤﻨ ﺀﺎﻨﺒ ﻭ

ﺞﺌﺎﺘﻨﻟﺍ لﻴﻠﺤﺘﻭ ﺽﺭﻋ .

281

ﻊﺒﺍﺭﻟﺍ لﺼﻔﻟﺍ ﺔﺼﻼﺨ 295

XII

:ً ﻻوأ ﺘﻨﻟا ـــ ﺞﺋﺎ 298

تﺎﯿﺻﻮﺘﻟاو تﺎﺣﺮﺘﻘﻤﻟا :ً ﺎﯿﻧﺎﺛ 305

ثﺣﺑﻟا قﺎﻓأ :ًﺎﺛﻟﺎﺛ

395

ﻊﺟارﻣﻟا ﺔﻣﺋﺎﻗ

- 306 325 206

ﺔﻣﺎﻌﻟا ﺔﻣدﻘﻣﻟا

ب

:ﺔﻣﺪﻘﻤﻟا

ﺕﺎﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻬﺠﻭﺘ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻤﻬﻤ ﺕﻻﻭﺤﺘ ﺕﺎﻨﻴﻨﺎﻤﺜﻟﺍ ﺩﻘﻋ ﺔﻴﺍﺩﺒ ﺫﻨﻤﻭ ﺔﻴﻤﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺕﺩﻬﺸ ﺕﺎﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﻙﻠﺘ ﻲﻌﺴ ﻲﻓ ﺕﻠﺜﻤﺘ ،ﺔﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﻭﺘﺴﻤ ﻕﻴﻤﻌﺘﻭ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺭﺭﺤﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺠﺭﺩ ﺓﺩﺎﻴﺯ ﻭﺤﻨ

ﻓ ،ﻲﻤﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﻊﻤ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ لﻤﺎﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺘ ﺕﺍﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﻩﺫﻫ ﻥﻤ ﺩﻴﺩﻌﻟﺍ ﺕﺃﺩﺒ

ﻥﻋ ﹰﺎﻴﺠﻴﺭﺩﺘ ﻰﻠﺨﺘ

ﺔﻴﺌﺎﻤﺤﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﺘﻭ ،ﺩﺍﺭﻴﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﺽﻴﻭﻌﺘ ﺕﺎﺴﺎﻴﺴﻭ

ﻭ ﺭﻴﺩﺼﺘﻟﺍ ﻊﻴﺠﺸﺘ ﺔﺴﺎﻴﺴ ﻲﻨﺒﺘ ﻭﺤﻨ لﻭﺤﺘ ﺫﺎﺨﺘﺍ

لﺎﺠﻤ ﻲﻓ ﹰﺎﺤﺎﺘﻔﻨﺍ ﺭﺜﻜﺍ ﺕﺎﺴﺎﻴﺴ ﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ

ﻭ ،ﺔﻴﺩﻘﻨﻟﺍﻭ ،ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻤﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺴ ﺓﺭﺎﺠﺘﻟﺍ

، ﻥﻤ ﺩﻴﺩﻌﻟﺍ ﺕﻠﺨﺩﺄﻓ ،ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍﻭ

ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﺕﺎﻘﻓﺩﺘ ﺏﺎﻁﻘﺘﺴﻻ ﻡﺌﻼﻤﻟﺍ ﻱﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﺥﺎﻨﻤﻟﺍ ﺔﺌﻴﻬﺘ ﻑﺩﻬﺒ ،ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﻥﻴﻨﺍﻭﻗ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺕﻼﻴﺩﻌﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﻋ ﻼﻴﺩﺒ لﻜﺸﻴ ﻻ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﻥﻤ ﻉﻭﻨﻟﺍ ﻙﻟﺫ ﻥﺄﺒ ﻙﺍﺭﺩﻹﺍ ﻥﻤ ﻡﻏﺭﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ،ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍ ﻥﻤ لﻜ

ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ

ﺭﺎﺨﺩﻻﺍﻭ ﻴﻠﺤﻤﻟﺍ

ﻥﻴ ﻱﺫﻟﺍ ﺭﻭﺩﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻤﻫﺄﺒ ﻉﺎﻨﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺩﻴﺍﺯﺘ ﺩﻌﺒ ﺯﺯﻌﺘ ﺩﻗ ﻩﺎﺠﺘﻻﺍ ﺍﺫﻫ ﻥﺃ ﻻﺇ ﻪﻟ لﻤﻜﻤ ﻭﻫ لﺒ ،

ﺍﺭﻘﺘﺴﻤ ﹰﺍﺭﺩﺼﻤ ﻪﻨﻭﻜ ﺙﻴﺤ ﻥﻤ ﺀﺍﻭﺴ ﺔﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﻲﻓ ﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﻪﺒﻌﻠﻴ لﻴﻭﻤﺘﻠﻟ ﹰﺎﻴﺒﺴﻨً

- ﻷﺍ ﻉﺍﻭﻨﻷﺎﺒ ﺔﻨﺭﺎﻘﻤ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍ لﻴﻭﻤﺘﻟﺍ ﺭﺩﺎﺼﻤ ﻥﻤ ﻯﺭﺨ

- ﻭﺃ ﺙﻴﺤ ﻥﻤ ﺔﻠﻴﺴﻭ ﻪﻨﻭﻜ

ﺕﺍﺭﺩﻘﻟﺍ ﺭﻴﻭﻁﺘﻭ ﺔﻴﻠﺤﻤﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻋﺎﻨﺼﻟﺍ ﺙﻴﺩﺤﺘﻭ ﺝﺎﺘﻨﻹﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﺠﻭﻟﻭﻨﻜﺘ لﻘﻨﻭ لﻴﻐﺸﺘﻟﺍ ﺹﺭﻓ ﺭﻴﻓﻭﺘﻟ ﺔﻤﺎﻫ ﻊﻓﺭ ﻲﻓ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻥﻋ ﻼﻀﻓ ،ﺓﺭﺩﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﻭﻤﻠﻟ ﺀﻑﻜﻟﺍ ﻡﺍﺩﺨﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﻕﻴﻘﺤﺘﻭ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻼﻟ ﺔﻴﺭﻴﺩﺼﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺴﻓﺎﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﻤ ﻭﺃ ﺔﻴﺭﺎﻜﺘﺒﻻﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺩﻘﻟﺍﻭ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻬﻤﻟﺍ ﺭﻴﻭﻁﺘ ﺙﻴﺤ ﻥﻤ ﺀﺍﻭﺴ ﺔﻴﺠﺎﺘﻨﻹﺍ ﻯﻭﺘﺴﻤ ﺕﺍﺀﺎﻔﻜﻟﺍ ﺭﻴﻭﻁﺘ ﺙﻴﺤ

ﺔﻴﺠﺎﺘﻨﻹﺍ ﺕﺎﻁﺒﺍﺭﺘﻟﺍ ﻊﻴﺴﻭﺘﻭ ﻕﻴﻤﻌﺘﻭ ﺔﻴﻤﺩﺨﻟﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﻌﻠﺴﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺠﺘﻨﻤﻟﺍ ﺓﺩﻭﺠ ﻥﻴﺴﺤﺘﻭ ،ﺔﻴﺭﺍﺩﻹﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﻤﻴﻅﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻋﺎﻤﺘﺠﻻﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺭﺎﺜﻵﺍ ﺽﻌﺒ ﺩﻭﺠﻭ ﻲﻔﻨﻴ ﻻ ﺍﺫﻫ ﻥﻜﻟﻭ ،ﻡﺠﺤﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﻭﻓﻭ ﻯﻭﺘﺴﻤ ﺓﺩﺎﻴﺯﻭ ﺠ ﺔﺤﺍﺯﻹ ﺔﺠﻴﺘﻨﻜ ﺭﻬﻅﺘ ﻲﺘﻟﺍﻭ ،ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻼﻟ ﺓﺭﺎﻀﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺒﻠﺴﻟﺍ ﻥﻤ ﺔﻴﻠﺤﻤﻟﺍ ﻊﻴﺭﺎﺸﻤﻟﺍ ﻥﻤ ﻡﻬﻤ ﺀﺯ

ﺍﻭ ﺝﺎﺘﻨﻹﺍ ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﺔﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﺭﻭﺩ ﺯﺭﺒﻴ ﺎﻨﻫﻭ ،ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻ

ﺔﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﻭﺤﻨ ﻪﻘﻓﺩﺘﻭ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﺓﺩﺎﻴﺯ ﻲﻓ لﻭﺩﻠﻟ

ﺓﺭﻭﻁﺘﻤ ﺕﻻﺩﻌﻤﺒ لﻭﺩﻟﺍ .

ﻪﺘﺎﺠﺎﺤﻭ ﺔﻴﺭﺍﺩﻹﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﻠﻜﻴﻬﻟﺍ ﺕﻻﻼﺘﺨﻻﺍ ﻥﻤ ﻲﻨﻤﻴﻟﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﻪﻨﻤ ﻰﻨﺎﻋ ﻱﺫﻟﺍ ﻊﻀﻭﻠﻟ ﺔﺠﻴﺘﻨﻭ ﻥﻴﺘﻟﻭﺩﻟ ﻥﻴﻤﺎﻅﻨ ﺝﺎﻤﺩﻨﺍ ﺔﺠﻴﺘﻨ ﺔﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ –

ﻲﻓ ﻲﻟﺎﻤﺴﺃﺭﻟﺍ ﻡﺎﻅﻨﻟﺍﻭ ﺏﻭﻨﺠﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻲﻜﺍﺭﺘﺸﻻﺍ ﻡﺎﻅﻨﻟﺍ

ﺕﻠﺼﻭ ﻥﻴﺤ ﺕﺎﻨﻴﻌﺴﺘﻟﺍ ﻑﺼﺘﻨﻤ ﻲﻓ ﺎﻬﺘﻭﺭﺫ ﺕﺎﺒﻭﻌﺼﻟﺍ ﺕﻐﻠﺒ ﺩﻗﻭ ،ﺕﺎﻨﻴﻌﺴﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺍﺩﺒ ﻲﻓ لﺎﻤﺸﻟﺍ ﺩﺤ ﺔﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺕﻻﻼﺘﺨﻻﺍ ﹰﺍ

ﻉﺍﺭﺴﻻﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻊﻓﺩ ﺎﻤﻤ ﺔﻤﻴﺨﻭ ﺏﻗﺍﻭﻌﺒ ﺭﺫﻨﻴ ﺡﻼﺼﻹﺍ ﺞﻤﺎﻨﺭﺒ ﺀﺩﺒﺒ

ﻫﻭ ﻡﻴﻅﻨﺘ ﺓﺩﺎﻋﺇﻭ ﻲﻟﺎﻤﻟﺍﻭ ﻱﺭﺍﺩﻹﺍﻭ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﻊﻤ ﻪﻠﻋﺎﻔﺘ ﻭﺃ ﻪﺘﺍﺩﺤﻭ ﻲﻓ ﺀﺍﻭﺴ ﻲﻓﺭﺼﻤﻟﺍ ﻉﺎﻁﻘﻟﺍ ﺔﻠﻜﻴ

ﺔﻴﻟﻭﺩﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻓﺭﺼﻤﻟﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻤﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﻠﺨﺍﺩﻟﺍ ﻕﻭﺴﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺁ ﺭﺎﻁﺇ ﻲﻓ ﻲﻠﻜﻟﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺔﻜﺭﺤ

، ﺩﺍﺯ ﺩﻗﻭ

ﺔﻴﻨﻤﻴﻟﺍ ﺏﺭﺤﻟﺍ ﻡﺎﻴﻗ ﺓﺩﺤﻭﻟﺍ ﺔﻟﻭﺩ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ لﻜﺎﺸﻤ ﻕﻤﻋ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺔﻓﺎﻀﻹﺎﺒ ،ﺕﺎﻨﻴﻌﺴﺘﻟﺍ ﻑﺼﺘﻨﻤ ﻲﻓ

ﻥﻤ ﺩﺩﻋ

ﻤﻴﻠﻗﻹﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﻠﺨﺍﺩﻟﺍ لﻤﺍﻭﻌﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﻭﺩﻟﺍﻭ ﺔﻴ

، ﺔﻴﺠﺭﺎﺨﻟﺍ ﻥﻭﻴﺩﻟﺍ ﻡﺠﺤ ﻥﻤ ﺕﺩﺍﺯ ﻲﺘﻟﺍﻭ

، ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﺏﻭﺭﻫﻭ

،

ج

ﺕﺎﻋﻭﻓﺩﻤﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺯﻴﻤ ﻲﻓ ﺯﺠﻌﻟﺍ ﻉﺎﻔﺘﺭﺍﻭ

، ﻯﻭﺘﺴﻤ ﺽﺎﻔﺨﻨﺍﻭ ﺔﻤﻴﻗ

ﺭﻻﻭﺩﻟﺍ لﺒﺎﻘﻤ ﻲﻨﻤﻴﻟﺍ لﺎﻴﺭﻟﺍ

، ﻉﺎﻔﺘﺭﺍﻭ

.ﻲﻨﻤﻴﻟﺍ ﻥﻁﺍﻭﻤﻠﻟ ﺔﺸﻴﻌﻤﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﻭﺘﺴﻤ ﺽﻔﺨﻭ ﻡﺨﻀﺘﻟﺍ ﻯﻭﺘﺴﻤ ﺩﺒﻻ ﻥﺎﻜ ﻙﻟﺫ لﺠﺃ ﻥﻤﻭ

ﺞﻤﺎﻨﺭﺒ ﻥﻤ

ﻑﺎﻘﻴﺍ ﻑﺩﻬﺘﺴﻴ ﺡﻼﺼﺇ ﺭﻭﻫﺩﺘ

ﺭﺎﻌﺴﻷﺍﻭ ﺯﺠﻌﻟﺍﻭ ﻭﻤﻨﻟﺍ ،ﺕﻻﻼﺘﺨﻻﺍ ﻙﻠﺘ ﺔﺠﻟﺎﻌﻤﻭ

ﻲﻨﺒﺘ لﻼﺨ ﻥﻤ

ﻠﻋ ﺓﺭﻁﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺕﻠﺜﻤﺘ ﺔﻤﺭﺎﺼ ﺔﻴﺩﻘﻨﻭ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻤ ﺔﺴﺎﻴﺴ ﻰ

ﺠﻌﻟﺍ ﻭﻤﻨ لﺩﻌﻤ ﺯ

ﺽﺭﻌﻟﺍﻭ ﺔﻤﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺔﻨﺯﺍﻭﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ

ﻑﺭﺼﻟﺍ ﺭﻌﺴ ﺭﻴﺭﺤﺘﻭ ﻱﺩﻘﻨﻟﺍ ،

ﺍﺩﺨﺘﺴﺍﻭ ﻡ

ﺎﺨﺘﺍﻭ ﺎﻬﺘﺍﻭﺩﻷ ﺔﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﻙﻠﺘ ﺫ

ﺔﻓﺩﺎﻬﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺭﺠﻹﺍ ﻥﻤ ﺩﻴﺩﻌﻟﺍ

ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍﻭ ﺭﺎﺨﺩﻻﺍ ﺯﻴﻔﺤﺘ ﻰﻟﺇ .

ﻡﻏﺭﻭ ﺕﺎﺤﻼﺼﻻﺍ ،ﻥﻤﻴﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻌﺒﺘﻤﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺔﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ

ﺍ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﻡﺠﺤ ﻥﺃ ﻻﺇ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻷ

ﺎﻬﻴﻟﺇ ﻡﺩﺎﻘﻟﺍ .ﻯﺭﺨﻷﺍ لﻭﺩﻟﺍ ﻊﻤ ﺔﻨﺭﺎﻘﻤﻟﺎﺒ ﹰﺎﻔﻴﻌﻀ ﻰﻘﺒﻴ

:ًﻻوأ :ﺚﺤﺒﻟا ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻜﺷإ

ﻻﺍ ﻥﻤ ﺔﻋﻭﻤﺠﻤ ﻥﻋ ﺔﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺔﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﺭﺒﻌﺘ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻌﻴﺭﺸﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﺕﺍﺭﺍﺭﻘﻟﺍﻭ ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺭﺠﻹﺍﻭ ﺏﻴﻟﺎﺴ

لﻼﺨ ﻥﻤ ﺔﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺓﺎﻴﺤﻟﺍ ﻡﻴﻅﻨﺘﻟ ﺔﻟﻭﺩﻟﺍ ﺎﻫﺭﺩﺼﺘ ﺩﺭﺍﻭﻤﻠﻟ لﺜﻤﻻﺍ ﻡﺍﺩﺨﺘﺴﻻﺍ

ﺔﺤﺎﺘﻤﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ

ﻲﺠﺭﺎﺨﻟﺍﻭ ﻲﻠﺨﺍﺩﻟﺍ ﻥﺯﺍﻭﺘﻟﺍ ﻕﻴﻘﺤﺘﻭ لﻴﻐﺸﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﻭﺘﺴﻤ ﻊﻓﺭﻭ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﻭﻤﻨﻟﺍ ﺕﻻﺩﻌﻤ ﻊﻓﺭ ﻑﺩﻬﺒ ﻋ ﺩﻤﺘﻌﻴ لﻤﺍﻭﻋ ﺓﺩﻋ ﻲﻓ ﺭﻴﺜﺄﺘﻟﺍ لﻼﺨ ﻥﻤ ﺕﻠﺨﺩﺍ ﻙﻟﺫﻟ ﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻻﺍ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﺎﻬﻤﻫﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺎﻬﻴﻠ

ﻊﻴﺠﺸﺘ ﻰﻟﺍ ﺎﻬﻠﻤﺠﻤ ﻲﻓ ﺕﻤﺭﻭ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺎﺒ ﺔﻘﻠﻌﺘﻤﻟﺍ ﻥﻴﻨﺍﻭﻘﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺕﻼﻴﺩﻌﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﻤ ﺩﻴﺩﻌﻟﺍ ﻥﻤﻴﻟﺍ ﺓﺩﺩﺤﻤ ﻁﺒﺍﻭﻀﻭ ﺱﺴﺍ ﻕﻓﻭ ﺎﻬﺒﺫﺠﻭ ﺔﻴﺒﻨﺠﻻﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﻟ

لﻘﻨﻭ ﺔﻴﻠﺤﻤﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻠﻴﻭﻤﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺠﺎﻴﺘﺤﻻﺍ ﺔﻴﻁﻐﺘ

ﻩﺫﻫ ﻰﻟﺍ ﺓﺭﻭﻁﺘﻤﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺒﺨﻟﺍ ﺎﺒﺫﺠﻭ ﺔﻤﺀﺍﻭﻤ ﺭﺜﻜﺍ ﺔﺌﻴﺒ ﻕﻠﺨﻟ ﺎﻴﻤﺎﻨﺘﻤ ﺎﻤﺎﻤﺘﻫﺍ ﺕﻟﻭﺍ ﺎﻤﻜ ﻕﺍﻭﺴﻻﺍ

ﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻻﺍ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻼﻟ

ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻻﺍ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﺕﺎﻘﻓﺩﺘ ﻥﻤ لﻴﺌﻀ ﺭﺩﻗ ﻯﻭﺴ ﺩﻭﻬﺠﻟﺍ ﻩﺫﻫ ﺏﻁﻘﺘﺴﺘ ﻡﻟ ﻙﻟﺫ ﻡﻏﺭﺒﻭ ﻥﻤ ﻙﻟﺫﻭ ﻪﺜﺤﺒ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺔﺴﺍﺭﺩﻟﺍ ﻩﺫﻫ ﻰﻌﺴﺘ ﻱﺫﻟﺍ لﺎﻜﺸﻹﺍ ﻭﻫﻭ ،لﻭﻤﺄﻤﻟﺍ ﻯﻭﺘﺴﻤﻟﺍ ﻰﻟﺍ ﻕﺭﺘ ﻡﻟﻭﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ

:ﻲﻟﺎﺘﻟﺍ ﻲﺴﻴﺌﺭﻟﺍ لﺅﺎﺴﺘﻟﺍ ﺡﺭﻁ لﻼﺨ

ﻓ ﺔﯾدﺎﺻﺗﻗﻻا ﺔﺳﺎﯾﺳﻟا رود وھ ﺎﻣ رﺷﺎﺑﻣﻟا ﻲﺑﻧﺟﻷا رﺎﻣﺛﺗﺳﻻا بذﺟ ﻲ

؟

:ﺔﻴﺘﻷﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﻀﺭﻔﻟﺍﻭ ﺕﻻﺅﺎﺴﺘﻟﺍ ﻊﻀﻭ ﻥﻜﻤﻴ ﺔﻴﺴﻴﺌﺭﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻜﺸﻹﺍ ﻩﺫﻫ ﺏﻨﺍﻭﺠ ﻑﻠﺘﺨﻤ لﻴﻠﺤﺘﻟﻭ

. 1 ﺎﻤ ﺏﺎﺒﺴﺃﻭ ﺎﻬﺘﺍﻭﺩﺃﻭ ﺎﻬﻓﺍﺩﻫﺃﻭ ﺔﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺔﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺎﺒ ﺩﻭﺼﻘﻤﻟﺍ ﻕﻴﻘﺤﺘ ﻲﻓ ﺎﻬﻠﺸﻓ

ﺓﺫﻫ

ﻑﺍﺩﻫﻻﺍ .؟ﺔﺤﺠﺎﻨ ﺔﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺔﺴﺎﻴﺴ ﻲﻨﺒﺘ ﻲﻓ ﻡﻫﺎﺴﺘ لﻤﺍﻭﻋ ﺩﺠﻭﺘ لﻫﻭ ؟

. 2 لﻭﺩﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺓﺭﻤﺜﺘﺴﻤﻟﺍ لﻭﺩﻟﺍ ﺔﻨﻤﻴﻬﻟ ﺔﻠﻴﺴﻭ ﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﺭﺒﺘﻌﻴ لﻫ

ﻡﺃ ﺔﻔﻴﻀﻤﻟﺍ ﻀﺘﺴﻻ ﺄﺠﻠﺘ ﺔﻠﻴﺴﻭ ﻪﻨﺃ

ﺀﺍﻭﺴ ﺩﺤ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺔﻴﻤﺎﻨﻟﺍﻭ ﺔﻤﺩﻘﺘﻤﻟﺍ لﻭﺩﻟﺍ ﻥﻤ لﻜ ﻪﺘﻓﺎ

؟ﺔﻴﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ لﻜﺎﺸﻤﻟﺍ ﺔﺠﻟﺎﻌﻤﻭ ﺕﺎﻴﺩﺤﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻬﺠﺍﻭﻤﻟ

د

.

ﻴﻨﻤﻴﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺭﻭﻬﻤﺠﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ لﻜﻴﻬﻟﺍ ﻊﻀﻭ ﻥﺎﻜ ﻑﻴﻜ ﺡﻼﺼﻻﺍ ﺞﻤﺎﻨﺭﺒ ﺫﻴﻔﻨﺘ لﺒﻗ ﺔ

؟ﻩﺩﻌﺒﻭ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ

. 4 ﺔﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﺭﻭﺩ ﻭﻫ ﺎﻤ ﺔﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ

ﺔﻴﻨﻤﻴﻟﺍ لﻫﻭ ؟ ﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﺏﺫﺠ ﻲﻓ

ﺎﻫﺭﻭﺩ ﺱﺎﻴﻘﻟ ﺝﺫﻭﻤﻨ ﻲﻓ ﺎﻬﺘﺍﺭﻴﻐﺘﻤ ﺭﻴﻁﺄﺘ ﻥﻜﻤﻴ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻹﺍ ﺏﺫﺠ ﻲﻓ

ﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻨﻤﻴﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺭﻭﻬﻤﺠﻟﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ

؟

:ﺚﺤﺒﻟا تﺎﻴﺿﺮﻓ

. 1 ﻟﺍ ﺔﺴﺎﻴﺴ ﻻﺍ ﺔﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗ ﺍ ﻕﻴﻘﺤﺘﻟ ﺔﻟﻭﺩﻟﺍ ﺎﻫﺫﺨﺘﺘ ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺭﺠﻹﺍ ﻥﻤ ﺔﻋﻭﻤﺠﻤ

ﻓﺍﺩﻫ ﺎﻬ ﺔﻔﻠﺘﺨﻤ ﺕﺍﻭﺩﺃ ﺭﺒﻋ

.ﺔﻤﺌﻼﻤ ﺔﻴﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﺍ ﺔﺌﻴﺒ ﺔﺌﻴﻬﺘﻟ . 2 ﺎﻬﻨﻤ ﺓﺩﺎﻔﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﺔﻔﻴﻀﻤﻟﺍ لﻭﺩﻠﻟ ﻥﻜﻤﻴ ﺔﻴﺒﺎﺠﻴﺍ ﺔﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﺎﺜﺍ ﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻻﺍ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻼﻟ ﺏﻌﻠﺘﻭ

ﻪﺒﺍﺫﺘﺠﺍ ﻲﻓ ﹰﺎﻤﻬﻤ ﹰﺍﺭﻭﺩ ﺔﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺔﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ .

. 3 ﻥﻤ ﻲﻨﻤﻴﻟﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﻰﻨﺎﻌﻴ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻠﻜﻴﻬﻟﺍ ﺕﻻﻼﺘﺨﻻﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﺠﺭﺎﺨﻟﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﻠﺨﺍﺩﻟﺍ لﻤﺍﻭﻌﻟﺍ ﻥﻤ ﺔﻋﻭﻤﺠﻤ

.ﺔﻴﻠﺤﻤﻟﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﺒﻨﺠﻻﺍ لﺍﻭﻤﻻﺍ ﺱﻭﺅﺭ ﺏﻭﺭﻫ ﻲﻓ ﺕﻤﻬﺴﺃ . 4 ﺒﻌﻟ ﺕ ﺔﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺔﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻨﻤﻴﻟﺍ

ﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﺏﺫﺠ ﻲﻓ ﺎﻴﺭﻫﻭﺠﻭ ﹰﺎﻴﺒﺎﺠﻴﺇ ﺍﺭﻭﺩ ﻰﻟﺇ

ﺔﻴﻨﻤﻴﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺭﻭﻬﻤﺠﻟﺍ ) ﺓﺭﺘﻔﻟﺍ لﻼﺨ

- 95 ( 2010 .

أ :ًﺎﻴﻧﺎﺛ ﺔﻴﻤﻫ

ﺚﺤﺒﻟا :

ﺩﻘﻟ ﺃ ﺎﻬﻀﺭﻔﺘ ﺓﺭﻭﺭﻀ ﻥﻤ ﺭﺜﻜﺃ ﻲﻨﻁﻭﻟﺍ ﺩﻴﻌﺼﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺔﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺕﺎﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﻰﻟﺍ ﺔﺠﺎﺤﻟﺍ ﺕﺤﺒﺼ

ﺔﻴﻋﺎﻤﺘﺠﻻﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻕﻴﻘﺤﺘ ﺭﺼﺎﻌﻤﻟﺍ ﺎﻨﺘﻗﻭ ﻲﻓ ﻥﻜﻤﻤﻟﺍ ﻥﻤ ﺱﻴﻟ ﻪﻨﺍ ﻲﻫﻭ ﺎﻬﺒ ﻡﻠﺴﻤ ﺔﻘﻴﻘﺤ ﻊﻤ ﻡﺌﻼﺘﺘ ﺓﺩﻴﺠ ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻜ ﺕﺍﺫ ﺔﻨﺯﺍﻭﺘﻤﻭ ﺔﻨﺭﻤ ﺔﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺔﺴﺎﻴﺴ ﺩﻭﺠﻭ ﻥﻭﺩ ﺎﻴﺌﺎﻘﻠﺘ ﺔﺌﻴﺒ

ﺕﺍﺭﻴﻐﺘﻤﻟﺍ

ﺔﺼﺎﺨ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍﻭ ﻲﻠﺤﻤﻟﺍ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻹﺍ ﺭﻴﻭﻁﺘﻟ ﻡﺌﻼﻤ ﻱﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﺇ ﺥﺎﻨﻤ ﻕﻠﺨﺒ ﺢﻤﺴﺘﻭ ،ﺔﻁﻴﺤﻤﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﺜﻴﺩﺤﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﺠﻭﻟﻭﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﺕﺍﺭﺒﺨﻟﺍ ﺍﺫﻜﻭ ﺓﺩﻴﺩﺠﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺠﺎﺘﻨﻹﺍ ﺏﻴﻟﺎﺴﻷﺍ ﻥﻤ ﺓﺩﺎﻔﺘﺴﻹﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻱﺩﺅﻴ ﺎﻤﺒ ﺔﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻹﺍ ﺕﻻﺎﺠﻤﻟﺍ ﻑﻠﺘﺨﻤ .

ﻡﻠﻋ ﺩﺤ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺔﺴﺍﺭﺩﻟﺍ ﻩﺫﻫ ﻥﺈﻓ ﻙﻟﺫ ﺀﻭﻀ ﻲﻓﻭ ﺒ ﺯﻴﻤﺘﺘ ﺙﺤﺎﺒﻟﺍ

ﺎ ﺕﺍﺭﻴﻐﺘﻤ ﺔﺴﺍﺭﺩ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺎﻬﻟﺎﻤﺘﺸ ﺔﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ

ﺕﺍﺭﻐﺘﻤ ﺭﻴﻁﺄﺘ ﺭﺒﻋ ،ﺔﻴﻨﻤﻴﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺭﻭﻬﻤﺠﻟﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﺏﺫﺠ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺎﻫﺭﺜﺃﻭ ﺔﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﻭ ،ﺔﻴﺩﻘﻨﻟﺍﻭ ،ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻤﻟﺍ ﺔﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﻥﻤ لﻜ ﺔﻴﺭﺎﺠﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ

.ﻲﺴﺎﻴﻗ ﺝﺫﻭﻤﻨ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻠﻴﻠﻘﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺴﺍﺭﺩﻟﺍ ﻥﻤ ﻲﻫﻭ

.ﻥﻤﻴﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻙﻟﺫﺒ ﺕﻤﺎﻗ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ

ه

ﻥﻴﺒﻭ ﺎﻬﻨﻴﺒ ﻁﺒﺍﺭﺘﻟﺍ ﻯﺩﻤﻭ ﺔﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺔﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻤﻫﺃ ﺙﺤﺒﻟﺍ ﺍﺫﻫ لﻭﺎﻨﺘﻴﺴ ﺱﺎﺴﻷﺍ ﺍﺫﻫ ﻰﻠﻋﻭ ﻲﻓﺭﻭﻁﺘﻟﺍ ﺍﺫﻜﻭ ﻲﻨﻤﻴﻟﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺎﻬﺒﺭﻤ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ لﺤﺍﺭﻤﻟﺍ ﺽﺭﻌﺘﺴﻨﺴ ﺙﻴﺤ ﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻻﺍ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ

ﻘﺘﺴﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺭﻭﻁﺘ ﻥﻤ ﺎﻬﻠﺜﺎﻤﻴﺎﻤ ﺕﺍﺭﻭﻁﺘﻟﺍ ﺓﺩﻫ ﺏﺤﺎﺼﻴ لﻫﻭ ﺔﻴﺭﺎﺠﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﺩﻘﻨﻟﺍ ﻭ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻤﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﺭﺍﺭ

.ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﺥﺎﻨﻤ

أ :ًﺎﺜﻟﺎﺛ فاﺪﻫ

ﺚﺤﺒﻟا :

:ﺔﻴﻟﺎﺘﻟﺍ ﻁﺎﻘﻨﻟﺍ لﻼﺨ ﻥﻤ ﺙﺤﺒﻟﺍ ﻑﺍﺩﻫﺃ ﺩﻴﺩﺤﺘ ﻥﻜﻤﻴ

ﺔﺴﺎﻴﺴ ﺀﺎﻨﺒ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻱﺩﺅﺘ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ لﻤﺍﻭﻌﻟﺍﻭ ﺎﻬﺘﺎﻨﻭﻜﻤﻭ ﺔﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺔﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻫﺎﻤ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻑﻭﻗﻭﻟﺍ

.ﺔﺤﺠﺎﻨ ﺔﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻭ ﺔﻴﺩﻘﻨﻟﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻤﻟﺍ ﺔﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﻭﺩﺃ لﻭﺎﻨﺘ

ﺔﻴﺭﺎﺠﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ

ﻕﻴﻘﺤﺘ ﻲﻓ ﺎﻫﺭﻭﺩﻭ ﺎﻤﻬﻨﻴﺒ ﻕﻴﺴﻨﺘﻟﺍﻭ

.ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺭﺍﺭﻘﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺝﻭﻟﻭﻟﺍ

ﻜ

ﺔﻤﺩﻘﺘﻤﻟﺍ لﻭﺩﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ لﻜﻴﻫ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺕﺭﺜﺃ ﺓﺭﻫﺎﻅ

.ﺔﻴﻤﺎﻨﻟﺍﻭ ﺫﻴﻔﻨﺘ لﺒﻗ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺎﻬﺒ ﺭﻤ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ لﺤﺍﺭﻤﻟﺍﻭ ﻲﻨﻤﻴﻟﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ لﻜﻴﻫ ﻥﻋ ﺓﺭﺼﺘﺨﻤ ﺔﺤﻤﻟ ﻡﻴﺩﻘﺘ

.ﻩﺩﻌﺒﻭ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺡﻼﺼﻹﺍ ﺞﻤﺎﻨﺭﺒ ﺔﻴﺭﻭﻬﻤﺠﻟﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻻﺍﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﺏﺫﺠ ﻲﻓ ﺎﻫﺭﻴﺜﺄﺘﻭ ﺔﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺔﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﺭﻭﺩ ﺯﺍﺭﺒﺇ

.ﺔﻴﻨﻤﻴﻟﺍ

:ًﺎﻌﺑار :عﻮﺿﻮﻤﻟا رﺎﻴﺘﺧا بﺎﺒﺳأ

ﺭﻌﺘﻠﻟ ﺙﺤﺎﺒﻟﺍ لﻭﻴﻤ

ﺔﻴﻤﻫﺃ ﻯﺩﻤ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻑ

ﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺴﺎﻴﺴ ﻻﺍ

ﺔﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗ ﻟﺍ

ﺏﺫﺠ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺎﻫﺭﻴﺜﺄﺘﻭ ﺔﺤﺠﺎﻨ

.ﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ

ﺙﺤﺎﺒﻟﺍ ﻡﻠﻋ ﺩﺤ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺔﻴﻨﻤﻴﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺭﻭﻬﻤﺠﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﺴﺍﺭﺩ ﺩﻭﺠﻭ ﻡﺩﻋ

لﻜﺸ ﻲﻓ

ﻲﻀﺎﻴﺭ ﺎﺠﺫﻭﻤﻨ ﻁﺒﺭﻴ

.ﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺎﺒ ﺔﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺕﺎﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﺔﻗﻼﻋ

ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﺕﺎﻗﻭﻌﻤ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻑﺭﻌﺘﻟﺍ

.ﻥﻤﻴﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍ

ﻯﺩﺃ ﺎﻤﻤ ،ﺔﺴﺍﺭﺩﻟﺍ لﺤﻤ ﺓﺭﻫﺎﻅﻟﺎﺒ ﺔﻁﺒﺘﺭﻤﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻨﻤﺯﻟﺍ لﺤﺍﺭﻤﻠﻟ ﻪﺘﺸﻴﺎﻌﻤﻭ ﻥﻤﻴﻟﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺙﺤﺎﺒﻟﺍ ﺀﺎﻤﺘﻨﺍ

.ﺓﺭﻫﺎﻅﻠﻟ لﻴﻠﺤﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﻤ ﺍﺩﻴﺯﻤ لﺫﺒﻭ ﻕﻤﻌﺘﻟﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ

و

:ًﺎﺴﻣﺎﺧ :ﻲﻧﺎﻜﻤﻟاو ﻲﻨﻣﺰﻟا رﺎﻃﻹا

ﻡﺘ ﺙﺤﺒﻟﺍ ﺍﺫﻫ ﻲﻓ لﻭﺎﻨﺘ

ﻥﻤ ﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﺏﺫﺠ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺔﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﺭﻭﺩ

ﻥﻴﺒ ﺔﻌﻗﺍﻭﻟﺍ ﺓﺭﺘﻔﻠﻟ ﻤﺎﻋ

ﻲ 1995 - 2010 ﻙﻨﺒﻟﺍ ﻥﻤ ﺕﺎﻨﺎﻴﺒﻟﺍ ﻊﻤﺠ ﻡﺘ ﺙﻴﺤ ؛ﺔﻴﻨﻤﻴﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺭﻭﻬﻤﺠﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ

ﻲﻟﻭﺩﻟﺍ ﻙﻨﺒﻟﺍ ،ﺀﺎﺼﺤﻺﻟ ﺯﻜﺭﻤﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻬﺠﻟﺍ ،ﻱﺯﻜﺭﻤﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻤﻟﺍ ﺓﺭﺍﺯﻭ ،

ﻕﺍﺭﻐﺘﺴﺍ ﻡﺘ ﺩﻗﻭ ﺔﻠﻴﻭﻁ ﺓﺭﺘﻓ

ﻲﻓ

ﺕﺎﻨﺎﻴﺒﻟﺍ ﻊﻤﺠ ﻥﻤ ﺩﻜﺄﺘﻟﺍﻭ

،ﺔﻔﻠﺘﺨﻤ ﺭﺩﺎﺼﻤ ﻥﻤ ﺎﻬﺘﺤﺼ ﻲﻀﺎﻴﺭﻟﺍ ﺝﺫﻭﻤﻨﻟﺍ ﺭﺎﺒﺘﺨﺍ ﻥﻤ ﺙﺤﺎﺒﻟﺍ ﻥﻜﻤﺘﻴﻟ

ﺞﺌﺎﺘﻨ ﻰﻠﻋ لﻭﺼﺤﻠﻟ ﻪﻤﻴﻤﺼﺘ ﻡﺘ ﻱﺫﻟﺍ ﺏﺫﺠ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺔﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺔﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﻴﻐﺘﻤ ﺭﻴﺜﺄﺘ ﻊﻗﺍﻭ ﺹﺨﺸﺘ

.ﺔﻴﻨﻤﻴﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺭﻭﻬﻤﺠﻟﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ

:ًﺎﺳدﺎﺳ ﻊﺒﺘﻤﻟا ﺞﻬﻨﻤﻟا

ﺚﺤﺒﻟا ﻲﻓ ﺔﻣﺪﺨﺘﺴﻤﻟا تاودﻷاو :

ﺘ ﻡﺘﻴ ﻰﺘﺤ ﺎﻫﺩﺎﻤﺘﻋﺍ ﻡﺘ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﻴﻐﺘﻤﻟﺍ ﻊﻤ لﻤﺎﻌﺘﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺝﻭﻟﻭﻟﺍﻭ ،ﻱﺭﻅﻨﻟﺍ ﺏﻨﺎﺠﻟﺍ ﺔﺸﻗﺎﻨﻤﻭ لﻭﺎﻨ

ﻰﻠﻋ ﺙﺤﺒﻟﺍ ﺍﺫﻫ ﻲﻓ ﺩﻤﺘﻌﻨ ﻑﻭﺴ ،ﻲﻘﻴﺒﻁﺘﻟﺍ لﺼﻔﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺝﺫﻭﻤﻨﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ :

ﻲﻓ ﻥﻭﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺎﻬﻤﺩﻗ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺭﺎﻜﻓﻷﺍﻭ ﺀﺍﺭﻵﻼﻴﻠﺤﺘﻭ ﺽﺭﻋ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺩﻤﺘﻌﻴ ﻲﻠﻴﻠﺤﺘﻟﺍ ﻲﻔﺼﻭﻟﺍ ﺞﻬﻨﻤﻟﺍ

ﺔﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺔﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ لﺎﺠﻤ .ﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻻﺍﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍﻭ

ﻰﻠﻋ ﺩﻤﺘﻌﺘ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺌﺎﺼﺤﻹﺍ ﺏﻴﻟﺎﺴﻷﺍ ﻲﻬﻓ ﺔﻤﺩﺨﺘﺴﻤﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﻭﺩﻷﺍ ﺎﻤﺃ

ﻁﺎﺒﺘﺭﻻﺍ لﻤﺎﻌﻤ ﻡﺍﺩﺨﺘﺴﺍ

ﺩﻴﻗ ﺓﺭﺘﻔﻟﺍ لﻼﺨ ﺔﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﻴﻐﺘﻤﻟﺍ ﻥﻴﺒ ﺔﻗﻼﻌﻟﺍ ﺔﺴﺍﺭﺩﻟ ﺩﺩﻌﺘﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﻁﺨﻟﺍ ﺭﺍﺩﺤﻨﻻﺍ ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻤﻭ .ﺔﺴﺍﺭﺩﻟﺍ

:ًﺎﻌﺑﺎﺳ ﺚﺤﺒﻟا تﺎـﻗﻮﻌﻣ

ﺓﺭﺩﺎﺼﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻨﺎﻴﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺏﺭﺎﻀﺘﻟﺍ

.ﺔﻴﻁﻴﻁﺨﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻤﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺴﺴﺅﻤﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ

. ﻥﻤﻴﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻲﺴﺎﻴﻘﻟﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺎﺒ ﺔﺼﺼﺨﺘﻤﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺴﺍﺭﺩﻟﺍﻭ ﺔﺤﺸ

.ﺔﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺕﺎﻨﺎﻴﺒﻟﺍ ﺹﺨﻴ ﺎﻤﻴﻓ ﺕﺎﻅﻓﺎﺤﻤﻟﺍﻭ ﺯﻜﺭﻤﻟﺍ ﻥﻴﺒ ﻕﻴﺴﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻡﺩﻋ

ﺭﺩﺎﺼﻤ ﻥﻤ ﺭﺩﺼﻤﻜ ﺀﺎﻌﻨﺼ ﺔﻌﻤﺎﺠ ﻲﻓ ﺕﺎﺒﺍﺭﻁﻀﻻﺍ ﺏﺒﺴﺒ ﻊﺠﺍﺭﻤﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ لﻭﺼﺤﻟﺍ ﺔﺒﻭﻌﺼ

. ﺕﺎﻤﻭﻠﻌﻤﻟﺍ

ًﺎﻨﻣﺎﺛ : تﺎﺳارﺪﻟا :ﺔﻘﺑﺎﺴﻟا

ﺔﻔﻠﺘﺨﻤ ﺔﻴﻤﻠﻋ ﻊﺠﺍﺭﻤﻭ ﺭﺩﺎﺼﻤ ﻥﻤ ﺙﺤﺎﺒﻟﺍ ﻪﻴﻠﻋ ﻊﻠﻁﺍ ﺎﻤ ﺏﺴﺤﺒ ﺩﻭﺠﻭ ﻡﺩﻋ ﻥﻴﺒﺘ

ﺕﻟﻭﺎﻨﺘ ﺔﺴﺍﺭﺩ

ﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻹﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺔﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﻥﻴﺒ ﺔﻤﺌﺎﻘﻟﺍ ﺔﻗﻼﻌﻟﺍ ﻥﻤﻴﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ

، ﺕﺎﺴﺍﺭﺩ ﺩﺠﻭﺘ ﻥﻜﻟﻭ

ﺔﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺔﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻨﻭﻜﻤ ﺎﻤﺇ ﺕﻟﻭﺎﻨﺘ ؛

ﻟﺍ ﻭﺃ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻤﻟﺍ ﻭﺃ ﺔﻴﺩﻘﻨﻟﺍ ﺔﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﻱﺃ ﺔﻔﺼﺒ ﺔﻴﺭﺎﺠﺘ

ﺓﺩﺭﻔﻨﻤ

ز

ﺎﻤﻬﺘﻗﻼﻋﻭ ﺍﺩﺭﻔﻨﻤ ﻙﻟﺫﻜﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍﻭ ﺕﺎﺴﺍﺭﺩﻟﺍ ﻩﺫﻫ ﻡﻫﺃ ﻥﻤ ﺭﻜﺫﻨﻭ ،ﻯﺭﺨﺃ ﺕﺍﺭﻴﻐﺘﻤﺒ

:ﻲﻠﻴﺎﻤ

:ﺔﻴﺒﻨﺟﻷا تﺎﺳارﺪﻟا :ًﻻوأ

1 :ﺔﺳارد .

ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﻭﻤﻨﻟﺍ ﻭ ﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﻥﻴﺒ ﺔﻗﻼﻌﻟﺍ ﺔﺴﺍﺭﺩﻟﺍ ﻩﺫﻫ ﺢﻀﻭﺘ ﺙﻴﺤ ،

ﺌﺎﺘﻨﻟﺍ ﺕﻀﺭﻌﺘﺴﺍ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﻕﻓﺩﺘ ﺕﺍﺩﺩﺤﻤ ﻰﻠﻋﻭ ﺔﻗﻼﻌﻟﺍ ﻩﺫﻫ ﺔﻌﻴﺒﻁ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻌﻟﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﺭﻅﻨﻟﺍ ﺞ

ﺔﻴﻤﺎﻨﻟﺍ لﻭﺩﻟﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﺎﻤﻜ ،

ﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻼﻟ ﺏﻌﺼﻟﺍﻭ ﻲﻟﺎﺤﻟﺍ ﻊﻀﻭﻟﺍ ﺔﻌﺠﺍﺭﻤ ﻡﺘ

ﺭﻴﺎﻨﻴ ﻥﻤ ﻥﻴﺭﺸﻌﻟﺍﻭ ﺱﻤﺎﺨﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺕﺜﺩﺤ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺭﺼﻤﻟﺍ ﺓﺭﻭﺜﻟﺍ ﺀﻭﻀ ﻲﻓ ﺭﺼﻤﻟ 2011

ﻋﺃ ﺩﻘﻓ . ﺎﺩ

ﺕ

ﻭﺴﻟﺍ ﻡﺠﺤ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺔﻓﺎﻀﻹﺎﺒ ،ﻭﻤﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺴﺤﻴ ﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﻥﺃ ﺔﻘﻴﻘﺤ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺩﻴﻜﺄﺘﻟﺍ ﺞﺌﺎﺘﻨﻟﺍ ،ﻕ

،ﻲﻤﻭﻜﺤﻟﺍ ﻥﻴﺩﻟﺍ ،ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻤﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻋﺎﻁﻘﻟﺍ ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻜ ،ﻑﺭﺼﻟﺍ ﺭﻌﺴ،ﺔﻴﺘﺤﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻨﺒﻟﺍ ،ﻱﺭﺸﺒﻟﺍ لﺎﻤﻟﺍ ﺱﺃﺭ ،ﺡﺎﺘﻔﻨﻻﺍ ﺕﺍﺩﺩﺤﻤﻟﺍ لﺜﻤﺘ ﻲﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﺭﺍﺭﻘﺘﺴﻻﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﻁﺍﺭﻘﻤﻴﺩﻟﺍ ،ﺔﻴﺴﺴﺅﻤﻟﺍ ﺓﺩﻭﺠﻟﺍ ،ﺩﻴﺠﻟﺍ ﻡﻜﺤﻟﺍ،ﻭﻤﻨﻟﺍ ﺕﻻﺩﻌﻤ ﺔﻴﺴﺎﺴﻷﺍ

،ﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﺏﺫﺠﻟ ﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻹﺍ ﻥﺈﻓ ﻙﻟﺫ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺔﻓﺎﻀﻹﺎﺒ

ﻲﻓ ﻪﻨﺃ ﺩﺠﻭ ﻱﺭﺼﻤﻟ

ﺔﻴﺤﺎﻨ ﻥﻤﻭ ،ﻲﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﻊﺼﻭﻟﺍ ﺏﺒﺴﺒ ﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻼﻟ ﺔﻴﺒﻠﺴ ﺕﺎﻘﻓﺩﺘ ﻊﻤ ﺓﺭﻴﻁﺨ ﺭﻭﻫﺩﺘ ﺔﻟﺎﺤ ﻥﻴﺩﻟﺍ ﺓﺩﺎﻴﺯ ﻥﺈﻓ ،ﺭﺍﺭﻘﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﻕﻘﺤﺘ ﺍﺫﺇ ﻰﺘﺤ ﻯﺭﺨﺃ ﻹﺍ ﻑﻗﻭﺘﻭ ﻲﻁﺎﻴﺘﺤﻻﺍ ﻊﺠﺍﺭﺘ ،ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ

ﺕﺎﺤﻼﺼ

ﺩﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﻤ ﺩﺤﻴ ﻥﺃ ﻥﻜﻤﻴ ﺡﺎﺘﻔﻨﻹﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﻟﺍ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻼﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻘﻓ

.ﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤ

2 . :ﺔﺳارد

Rahim Quazi, “Economic Freedom and Foreign DirectInvestment in East Asia”, Journal of the Asia Pacific EconomyVol. 12, No. 3, August 2007

ﻤﺎﻤﺘﻫﺇ ﺔﻴﻤﺎﻨﻟﺍ لﻭﺩﻟﺍ ﻭﻤﻨ ﻲﻓ ﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻼﻟ ﺩﻴﺍﺯﺘﻤﻟﺍ ﻡﺎﻬﻟﺍ ﺭﻭﺩﻟﺍ ﺩﻟﻭ ﺩﻘﻟ ﹰﺎ

ﻴﺜﺤﺒ ﹰﺎ ﺭﻴﺒﻜ

ﻥﻴﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﻥﻴﺒ

، ﻴﺒﺩﻷﺍﻭ ﺕﺎﺴﺍﺭﺩﻟﺍ ﻩﺫﻫﻭ ﺎ

ﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻻﺍ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻼﻟ ﺕﺍﺩﺩﺤﻤﻟﺍ ﻥﻤ ﺩﻴﺩﻌﻟﺍ ﺕﻤﺩﻗ ﺕ

،ﺎﻴﺴﻴﻨﻭﺩﻨﺍ ،ﻥﻴﺼﻟﺍ) ﺎﻴﺴﺃ ﻕﺭﺸ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻤﺎﻨ لﻭﺩ ﻊﺒﺴ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺎﻫﺫﻴﻔﻨﺘ ﻡﺘ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ (ﻱﺯﻭﻜ ﻡﻴﺤﺭ) ﺔﺴﺍﺭﺩ ﻲﻔﻓ ﻐﻨﺴ ،ﻥﻴﺒﻠﻔﻟﺍ ،ﺎﻴﺯﻴﻟﺎﻤ ،ﺎﻴﺭﻭﻜ ﺎ

ﻥﻤ ﺓﺭﺘﻔﻟﺍ لﻼﺨ(ﺩﻨﻠﻴﺎﺘ ،ﺍﺭﻭﻓ 1995

- 2000 ﺭﺒﻋ ، ﻨ

ﻤ ﺔﺘﺴ لﻤﺸ ﺝﺫﻭ

ﺔﻴﻨﺒﻟﺍ ﺓﺩﻭﺠ ،ﻲﻟﺎﻤﻟﺍ ﺭﺭﺤﺘﻟﺍ ،ﻱﺭﺸﺒﻟﺍ لﺎﻤﻟﺍ ﺱﺃﺭ ،ﻕﻭﺴﻟﺍ ﻡﺠﺤ،ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺡﺎﺘﻔﻨﻻﺍ :ﻲﻫ ﺕﺍﺩﺩﺤﻤ ﻋ ﺩﺌﺎﻌﻟﺍ ،ﺔﻴﺘﺤﺘﻟﺍ ،ﻲﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﺭﺍﺭﻘﺘﺴﻻﺍ ،ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﻰﻠ

ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﺥﺎﻨﻤﻟﺍ ﻥﺃ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺔﺴﺍﺭﺩﻟﺍ ﺕﺼﻠﺨ ﺩﻗﻭ

ح

ﻌﻟﺍ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺩﺌﺎﻌﻟﺍﻭ ،ﺭﻴﺒﻜﻟﺍ ﻲﻠﺤﻤﻟﺍ ﻕﻭﺴﻟﺍ ﻡﺠﺤﻭ ،ﺩﻴﺠﻟﺍ ﻲﻠﺤﻤﻟﺍ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﻕﻓﺩﺘ ﺯﺯﻌﺘ ،ﻲﻟﺎ

.ﺱﻜﻌﻟﺍ ﺏﺒﺴﻴ ﻲﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﺭﺍﺭﻘﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﻡﺩﻋ ﺎﻤﻨﻴﺒ ،ﺔﻔﻴﻀﻤﻟﺍ ﺔﻟﻭﺩﻟﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍ

3

:ﺔﺳارد

Salah T. Al-rawashdeh, Jaafar H. Nsour, Rafat S. Salameh,"Forecasting Foreign Direct Investmentin Jordan for the Years (2011 -2030)", International Journal of Business and Management, Vol. 6, No. 10; October 2011.

ﻥﻤ ﺕﺍﻭﻨﺴﻟﺍ لﻼﺨ ﻥﺩﺭﻷﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﻕﻓﺩﺘ ﻊﻗﻭﺘ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺔﺴﺍﺭﺩﻟﺍ ﺕﻓﺩﻫ ) 2011 - 2030

ﻭ ،(

ﺍ ﻤﻨ ﺔﺴﺍﺭﺩﻟﺍ ﺕﺩﺨﺘ ﻭ

لﻤﺎﻜﺘﻤﻟﺍ ﺭﺜﺅﻤﻟﺍ لﺩﻌﻤﻟﺍ ﺝﺫ

) AutoregressiveIntegratedMovingAverage (

ﺘﻌﻴ ﻱﺫﻟﺍﻭ ، ﻤ

ﻥﻤ ﺓﺭﺘﻔﻠﻟ ﺕﺎﻨﺎﻴﺒﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻁﻐﺘ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺩ

) 1981 - 2010 ﹰﺍﺭﻘﺘﺴﻤ ﻥﻜﻴ ﻡﻟ ﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ) ﺭﻴﻐﺘﻤﻟ ﺔﻴﻨﻤﺯﻟﺍ لﺴﻼﺴﻟﺍ ﻥﺃ ﺩﺠﻭ ﺙﻴﺤ ،(

) ﺓﺩﺤﻭﻟﺍ ﺭﺫﺠ ﻥﻤ ﻲﻨﺎﻌﻴ ﻪﻨﺃﻭ ،ﻥﻤﺯﻟﺍ لﻼﺨ ﻪﺘﺎﻴﻭﺘﺴﻤ ﻲﻓ unit root

ﻭ ،(

ﺍ ﺞﻤﺍﺭﺒﻟﺍ ﺔﺴﺍﺭﺩﻟﺍ ﺕﻤﺩﺨﺘﺴ

) Minitab, 14 and Eviews, 3.1 لﻴﻠﺤﺘﻟ (

،ﻊﻗﻭﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﺕﺎﻨﺎﻴﺒﻟﺍ ﻥﻤ ﺔﻋﻭﻤﺠﻤ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺔﺴﺍﺭﺩﻟﺍ ﺕﻠﺼﻭﺘ

ﻎﻠﺒﻴﺴ ﻥﺩﺭﻷﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻕﻓﺩﺘﻤﻟﺍ ﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻼﻟ ﻊﻗﻭﺘﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﻤﺠﻹﺍ ﻡﺠﺤﻟﺍ ﻥﺃ ﺎﻬﻨﻤ ﺞﺌﺎﺘﻨﻟﺍ ) 29207.06 ﻡﺎﻋ ﻰﺘﺤ ﹰﺎﺒﻴﺭﻘﺘ ﻲﻨﺩﺭﺃ ﺭﺎﻨﻴﺩ ﻥﻴﻴﻼﻤ ﺔﻌﺒﺴﻭ ﺔﺌﺎﻤ ﻊﺒﺴﻭ ﺭﺎﻴﻠﻤ ﻥﻭﺭﺸﻋﻭ ﺔﻌﺴﺘ (ﻥﻭﻴﻠﻤ

2030 ﻷﺍ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﻁﺴﻭﺘﻤ ﻎﻠﺒ ﺎﻤﻨﻴﺒ ، ) ﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﺒﻨﺠ

1479.096 ﻊﺒﺭﺃﻭ ﺭﺎﻴﻠﻤ ﺭﺸﻋ ﺔﻌﺒﺭﺃ (ﻥﻭﻴﻠﻤ

ﺘ ﻲﻨﺩﺭﺃ ﺭﺎﻨﻴﺩ ﻥﻭﻴﻠﻤ ﻥﻭﻌﺒﺴﻭ ﺔﻌﺴﺘﻭ ﺔﺌﺎﻤ ﻎﻠﺒ ﻱﻭﻨﺴ ﻭﻤﻨ لﺩﻌﻤﺒ ﹰﺎﺒﻴﺭﻘ

3.22

،%

ﺔﺴﺍﺭﺩﻟﺍ ﺕﺼﻭﺃﻭ

ﺔﻴﺭﻭﺭﻀﻟﺍ لﺌﺎﺴﻭﻟﺍﻭ ﺯﻓﺍﻭﺤﻟﺍ ﺭﻴﻓﻭﺘ ﻕﻴﺭﻁ ﻥﻋ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻼﻟ ﺔﺒﺴﺎﻨﻤ ﺔﺌﻴﺒ ﺭﻴﻓﻭﺘﻟ ﺔﺠﺎﺤ ﻙﺎﻨﻫ ﻥﺄﺒ ،ﺔﻴﻁﺍﺭﻗﻭﺭﻴﺒﻟﺍ ﻥﻋ ﹰﺍﺩﻴﻌﺒ ﻥﻴﺭﻤﺜﺘﺴﻤﻠﻟ ﻲﻓ ﹰﺎﺼﻭﺼﺨ ،ﺔﻠﻤﺎﺸ ﺔﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺇ ﺔﻁﺨ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺔﺠﺎﺤﻟﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺔﻓﺎﻀﻹﺎﺒ

.ﻥﺩﺭﻷﺍ ﺎﻬﻴﻓ ﺎﻤﺒ ﻡﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺕﺭﺜﺃ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻤﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻤﻟﺍ ﺔﻤﺯﻷﺍ ﺭﺎﺜﺃ

.5 .ﺔﯾﺑرﻌﻟا تادﺎﺻﺗﻗﻻا ضﻌﺑ ﻲﻓ ﻲﺑﻧﺟﻷا رﺎﻣﺛﺗﺳﻼﻟ ﻲﻟﺎﺣﻟا ﻊﺿوﻟا صﯾﺧﺷﺗ

Abeer F.A. Al Abbadi, “

Diagnosis of the Current Situation ofForeign Investment in some Arab Economies”,

5 No. 2 2009

ﺏﺫﺠ لﺎﺠﻤ ﻲﻓ ﻥﻤﻴﻟﺍﻭ ،ﻥﺩﺭﻷﺍﻭ ،ﺭﺼﻤ ﻥﻤ لﻜ ﺏﺭﺎﺠﺘ ﺔﻌﺠﺍﺭﻤ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺔﺴﺍﺭﺩﻟﺍ ﺕﻓﺩﻫ ﺫﻫ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﻲﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻹﺍ ﺕﺎﻘﻓﺩﺘ ﻡﺠﺤﻭ ،ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﺔﺴﺍﺭﺩﻟﺍ ﺕﺼﻠﺨ ﺙﻴﺤ .لﻭﺩﻟﺍ ﻩ

ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺭﺜﺅﺘ ﺔﻴﺭﺍﺩﻹﺍ ﺔﺌﻴﺒﻟﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺔﻓﺎﻀﻹﺎﺒ ،ﺔﻴﻨﻭﻨﻘﻟﺍﻭ ،ﺔﻴﺴﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ،ﺔﻴﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ لﻤﺍﻭﻌﻟﺍ ﻥﺃ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺔﻘﺒﺎﺴﻟﺍ لﻭﺩﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺓﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﺭﻴﻏ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺔﻓﺎﻀﻹﺎﺒ ﺭﺸﺎﺒﻤﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺒﻨﺩﻹﺍ ﺕﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻷﺍ ﺏﺫﺠ ﺜﺅﻤﻟﺍ ﺩﻌﺒﻟﺍ ﺭﺼﻤ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﺘﺤﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻨﺒﻟﺍ لﺜﻤﺘ ﺎﻤﻨﻴﺒ ،ﺭﻜﺫﻟﺍ .ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻹﺍ ﺏﺫﺠ ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺭ

ﺎﻤﻜ

ﺭﻌﺴ لﺩﻌﻤ ﻲﻓ ﺏﺫﺒﺫﺘﻟﺍ ﺏﺒﺴﺒ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺴﻻﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺓﺩﺩﺭﺘﻤ ﺔﻴﺒﻨﺠﻷﺍ ﺕﺎﻜﺭﺸﻟﺍ ﻡﻅﻌﻤ ﻥﺃ ﺞﺌﺎﺘﻨﻟﺍ ﺕﺭﺎﺸﺃ