African regional recovery confirmed

•

ECONOMIC COMMISSION ,F O R A,FRICA

• •~ t ': ••

'f' ,:..,'

NATIONS UNIES

COMMISSION ECONOMIQUE

:IP~UR L'AFRIQUE

No. 5002

15 May 1996

:'

AFRICAN REGIONAL RECOVERY COJfFIBMED

.',' r, ,"

The Report on

^the..

Economic and Social situation iri Africa 1996 just published by the Economic commission for Africa

(ECA)

has confirmed the recovery that has been underway in Africa in recent years and the

highest~annual

growth rate since the beginning of the decade.

. .. ' ,' .

:... .

The gross domestic product (GOP) grew by 2.3% in 1995 compared to the revised figUres of 2.1% in 1994 and 0.7% in 1993. African Least Developed countries (LOCS) income performance

incr~ased

for tl:'le first time since' 1992. The real GOP growth rate

for ,

35

LDCs

stood at 2.4%

in

1995 compared with - 2.4 and 1.6% in 1993 and 1994 respectively.

That picture blurs significant variations in the performance of individual countries as well as sub-regions. But, for the first time 'since the

mid~'Os

several national economies are now growing faster

'

than the current annual 2

'.9%

popUlation growth. All

,

t hi s in turn is a positive indication that overall growth trends are on the thresnold of gathering momentum towards

.

t he

',

re'covery that is evident" in the

'

global economy.

'

A significant nUmber of African countries, nevertheless, remain at the lower end of

't he growth

spectrum.

Three countries experienced negative

'

growth in

:.1995 .

The fiqUre

was

14 the

''pr ev i ous year.

Eight exceeded

",6%:~compared

to only

~' ~-in'

1994. These were Burkina Faso (' 6%),

^c

Cote

(I:'

Ivoire (6.6%), Ghana (6,'9%), Kenya (6.1%), Malawi (6.2%)

/ 'Mali

(6.6%),

'

Togo (6.7%) and Tunisia (6.7%).

Botswana and Mauritius top the list. Over the';·last 4 yea'rs they have consistently recorded growth ra'tes in excess

'

of,

^5%.

They are therefore among the 19 that have experienced growth

rates

in excess of population in

1995.

Five are in the Southern African SUb-region, 7 in the Eastern African. The Eastern and Southern sub-regions in general have performed better than others

more

P.O.Box 3001 •

For use of information media;not an officialrecord

Addis Ababa • Ethiopia

• Destinelll'Information: neconstituepas un documentofficiel

2

• •

notwithstanding the twin onslaughts of intermittent drought and pest infestations.

According to the ECA Report, the growth of GDP was due mainly to the above average performance of the manufacturing sector and a modest rebound of the mining sector.

The former recorded a positive growth rate of 4.2% in value added in 1995 mainly because of the availability of better ipput supplies and improvements in the importation of raw materials for agro-a11ied industries which themselves were made possible by the favouraQ1e performance of the external account. It was mainly capacity utilization, encouraged by some remedial policy measures inclUding the rationalization of industries under structural adjustment programmes (SAPs) that made the difference.

tlAs a result of extensive reforms in the mining sector in

recent.y~ars exploration and min~ng investment have increased in several countries", says t1)e Repor~.

,

.

However, improved p~rformance in production volumes in 1995 was mostly attributable to oil production. That increased by 2.4%

in 1995 in comparison with a decline of 1.5% the previous year~'

Precious metals and minerals including gold, diamonds, . and other gems came into their own. But the overall improvements In the mining sector were ·related to an almost 20% 'i n c r e a s e in prices of minerals and metai ores and 7.9% increase in oil prices in 19.95.•

Copper prices were 27.3% higher in 1995 than in 1994 while p~ices

of nickel, aluminium, cobalt, lead and iron ore rose by 30, 22.3, 19.9, 14.6 an~ 6 per ~ent respectively .

.

Gr~~~ 99.tp~~

ⁱⁿ

~griculture,

the mainstay of.the

ec~nomy

^was

Itlack1us1;.r~" ·,~cp.ord iJ:lg to the ECA Report. Its growth rate decelerated from 4.2% in 1994 to 1.5% in 1995. The loss was more pronqunced)n:the North and Eastern and Southern SUb-regions than

~l~ewhere. Taken as a whole, they registered a negative 7% and

3.0% for the Eastern and Southern SUb-regions respectiveiy for

1995. .

. West Africa performe~much better with value ~dded growing by 4.2% in 1995, although the figure represented a dece~eration from the 8.5% figure achieved i~; .1994. Central Africa c;:lockedan overall improvement of 0.9% from a -1.9%,,in 1994";,

"These trends in value added correspond to ~'sta~natio~ ^of oyerall aqricu.1tural output and a drastic deteJ;'ioration in per capita agricultural output", the ECA Report note.s~ , ,

l

.

more

- .

, •

3

•_•

According to the Food and Agricultural Organization of the Un! ted Nations (FAO) the incidence of drought during the third quarter of 1994 and the first quarter of 1995 precipitated famine conditions affecting some 10 countries in the North, Eastern and Southern sUb-regions.

In North Africa, the per capita agricultural output index (base year 1990) dropped by 0.9% in Algeria, 7.8% in Morocco and 23.2 % in the Sudan. The situation in Southern Africa was even more serious where i t declined by 11.4% in Lesotho, 5.6% in South Africa and 6.1% in Zimbabwe. Civil was took care of the outcome in such countries as Somalia, Angola, Burundi, Rwanda, Liberia and Sierra Leone.

The ECA Report concludes: IIFor the entire region food production grew at an average rate of 2.5% over the period 1990- 1995, less than population growth by half a percentage point".

Africa remains a food-~eficit region.

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