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» - > :

Or

iginal

^g

ENGLISH

.;

.'

Distr.

LIMITED

EjCN

o14/INRL92 15 August 1965

,

ii~ ITED NATIONS

f

~CONOMIC

AND

(jOCIAL COUNCIL

ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR AFRICA

Conference on the Harmonization of Industrial Development Programmes

in

East Africa

Lusaka, 27 September - 5 October 1965

THE DEVELOPMENT OF RUBBER

GOODS

MANUFACTURE ill THE EAST

AFRICAN SUB-RIDlON

DOCUMENTS OfFICE

FILE CO~y

NO TO BE TAKEN our

65-2854

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1.

- ~.,-,-- L"::;';.L1

1 1

- 1 IE

II.

-~ 1..1 -

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I1ITRO:t)UCTIOK

1. The rubber "bearing plants belonging 1;0 differeL1t bct.arn.osI sources^y

Hev'3a~ Castilloa elastica, :\Iamh~L,ziiovii~ Ficus elastica₉

Lan':lol:Ohia and many ethers less 'dell known , have 'be e n indigenous to the Ama ao n Valley and equatorial Africa f'o r man~r c errt.ur-Le s , Rubbe r ^,iCLS, hOK'::-V(;;r, only brought to the atention of tr.8 Westel'l1 World early in the

15t~ century by Christopher Columbus through his descriptive records of his second voyage

(1493-1496).

He scribed therein a game played, by the in3abitants of what was then deemed India, with balls made of a gUD,my substance whi c h had unusual re'oovLnc. and resilience.

2. Subsequent t;:entic;l1 is made in the rec,?rds of 1ater explorers who brcught sarcpl s s of this substance in the r'orra or' balls~ bottles~ etc. to Europe. No interest eX~>2It as 2 cur-i osi ty was take n in this remarkable product till 1772 when Priestloy. scientistJ examined .it and dis- e c ve re d that i t had the Froperty of 1'9C1Q\ring pencil rks f'r or, paper.

Because it h ad tLe propert,j af r"'-.lboing 1'8neil ^IT:.:Crks i 1; "Jas c aLl e d rubber ard t hLs name ven::Oy PTiestle;f has pe r-si s^te d t.c "this c..a,Y.

3- If the only use oj:" r-ubbe r wer0 £'01' ers.ssrs, i-ss conaumj..ti o n would he: ,8 r-craai.ne d extreme ly 8;;10..1.1. Ir-vest:.gElro r s into -cLis product "Gre to

fi~d other ~roper~ies and uses ^r-Ly in the 1)"11 c e rrt ur-y , A Sootsr;,an, Mi:.cintosh_t made the observ::.tionth;::t ra~l r ubbe r d.i s aoI ved in turpentine

terproof toxtiles.

Hs established the first f(:ct()r~l in ScotL nd in 1824 for the aanuf'acture of 'dater-proof c Lot.hi.ng , ~le honour this pionesr and his d.i aco ve zy bj nai..r ng &11 vntorrroof' c oats~ IT'E.c~~intoshcfj.

4.

The articles made of :r'ubb0rat 'this time became tacky ""hE;D expo se d to hsat and sunlight 2nd

it

is recorded th3t a WOI~ srnnruer in Scotland 2.L.ost ruined the \>ii:nerproof c l otni ng industry a.s the p roof'e d clothing srocka bccar,e sticks", a nd and to 1')0 scrapped , The "z-ubber- bubble^Il

bucst and c onsumpti.o n of rubber ^"'ClS r-e duce d to a.Lu.ost half in subsequent

•

E/ e') .14/INR/92

Pap 2

5.

This debacle "light ha ve lost a strctcgio .nate ri z.I to the world had it not been fer th8 discovery in 1839 of Charles Goodyear in America anc. 'I'homcs Hancock in England] of the c.cti c n of sulphur on rubber under hec.t , in the tr s r.s

ro

rmati cn of E sti cky 2.dh8si VB substance s ubj e ct to rapid. changes under the inflTlsDCiS of h',3,::t_~ cold and sunlight into the non-tacky, h~tS"h.l!. resili2nt₁ and sta bl a j.r-o duct th,;:,t Tde know t.od ay , This process known as vulcznization soon re-sstabllshed confidence in r-u.iber- and the 1840^f s saw several factories in the lJK arid the USA largely for the manuf act u.r., of WE'terproofs 9 ShO~3 arid 2.. few rD8chanical goc d.s , 'The use of rubber 'das still limi ted r.r.d in 1900 world consump-

tic~ of ruober was only

52,500

tons. Up t i l l this period Brazil was still the maj or supplier, ';iith sTIlsllsr quentiiies f r or; e c uetor.i e L .b.frice:.o

6.

The ndvent of the Dotor vehicle ~nd its inor22sing popu12rity in .dInE:riCR and Europe ei nc., 1'300 meant .incr-ea s ed co nauc.pti o n of rubber for

cyros end tubes. This ²¹⁸⁰ led to the dGvalo~m8nt of the p12ntations of rubber in South-se.st .6.Si2DQSed on Heve~:-: Bre.siliensis seeds $lllUggled out of :Brazil and nurtured into seedlings .st Kow. 'I'h e s ubs e que nt

:1.<3','::31opr.18nts of nevI uses for rubber nei cXl und.e r-ste nd.i ng of tho empi r i>

021 tochnology led to further phenomen21 incresses in consuffi;tion. The NOI'ld co nsu.rti on of rubber ill'

1964

wc-~s .~9

852,500

tons9 a.Lno st a hundred fali incre2se since 1900.

7.

Rubber in the 20th cc nt u ry h8S ztt ai ned the er;linc!1cc of a str-at e gi c

TIl2't :.::ri,::·1 pqr ;'oxcelloncc~ ..:ill motor vc h i.o Le e^J tractors ^J milit,'~ry

vet iol e s and othc r-s Clove 0~J. rubber tyre:se;:nd 'Hithout ru'bb0r not o n ly the

jet.one,:; f'or c c but th ; whole <2COnOijjY of c. country c...n gri nd to 2. halt Toc.s.y ^SOil18 5JOOO different art;iclc,-s 8.rs ^rl1,::;.da out of r-ubnor and one aut.,:.ority onc e said t.h.f YO'~L ocr. do r.nythi ng "with rubber except ,)!_:t at . Til: Laat world Ivar mi"sht h r.ve been lost by tIE? .Iillied pow e r s or :::t the 'nest co nei der a b.ly pr'o Lo ngc d ha d i t not be o n for tn., t tueLy rds'2'~rch a nd

dC\'slo~)m5nt unde r-t ake n just prior to th c w::r whi c h Gn2bl·~d suff i.ci e rrt syr.t.heti c rubbc r to be pr-orluc eu in ~iLjCrlC2 for tho war effort T/lhen nat.ur-aI r-ubbo r J:-Toducing co untri e s such cs 1','1E.:.Ic:;yc'J Lr.done si c , 'I'h ai.Le nd , InQ.J-C:--iin2 ;.:'-nd Burrow Itlere over-run by the J~~p8,nGSe in 1941/42&

•

8.

iIi

E/ eN

o14/IHB/92 p,.ge 3

Synthetio rubber production continu8d to increase from 42,500 tons 1940 to 900,525 tons in 1944 ~nd its present production is over

2~boo,DOO t.o ns , Ccnstde rr.b l c r0S8z.rch into new types 2nd Lmpr-cvo d

methods of production has made synthetic a serious co.apeti tor to natural rubber. The str-ate gi c r'e a s c rri ng led to its cornpul s or-y use, in "·:l.illerica in the post-war years in ordaT to lJ2intain a production equivalent to 2 third of tho annual conslli~ption. The stage has now been ranched when synthetic .rubbo r is being used by cc unc ri c s outside ths Nc r t.I; ..':...;;.cr':'C<:lL:

cor.ti nerrt to the '~xt'"nt of 40.3 per cent of the!:c tcta1 consumption and s e ve r-a.L countries; C2n&d~, Go rmany , UK, Itcly, France, Netherlands, J'aj.a n , Jiustrali2" Br-e zi L, Belgium, Ozo oho s l.o vaki a and even India a re producing synthetic- rubbe r ,

9.

This brief historical sketch Lndi c ct e s the vital and strategic role of the rU?b~T industry In th8 present day Beche.Dict;! "tiorid. No develop- iug country caD effard to be without both the wsnufacturing industry Qnd easy acc&ss to rubber producinG centres. It is fortunate that Jilrica

el~~2dy has a p1~nt&tion industry pro~ucing approximcte1y 150,000 tons of r-ubbor pCI' annun , It has still to c.eve Lo p its 01vTI indigeneous units f c ; the manufacture of the varⁱ ous rubber products so essential to its ee '; nomic deve Lopmorrt ,

Li.. In the succeeding p2ragra:;Jhs⁹ the p.l a n't ati o n industry of West .:ifrica

~e detailed ~s this is the logical source of rubber for the illsnuf2cturing ir.dustry in this continent. The consuLption trends in the dev810ped and developing countries are then reviewed in order to determine the achi o v- able order of dcve Lo pue nt in this industry in terms of per c2pita con- sumption of rubber in the next five yecrs both in the ^{J ...}fric2n continent and the Er.st .L~frican sub-region. Th0SC d.eveLopr.crrt goals a re :t"inally tr-ins l.rted into production units under var-i ous ccctegories and specific recomwendations made for 820h one

of

th6 countries in the sub-r0gion.

E/ClIf.14/nm/92

Page

4

CIL.:.PTER II

AFRICi~

RUBBER PLANTATIOnS

11. Mention has fr8viously been made to the ltlild rubber growing in the jungles of eQu2tori~1 ~~fricc. Plantations both in the forw of estates and 8[;:;[:11 holdings 'wer8 St"l'-r",d in the In.te twenties. The larg,,,st single rubber growing e nt e rp.ri s e in ..,friea is the Firestone r-lECntation

in Earbe1

₉ Liberia which was 5 t rted in

1926.

The

99

year le~se on 212?OOO acres was obtained by FirGstone in 1924. By

1955

they had

85~000 acroa under tl'G2s."=',nQ their annua.I production "as

27,000

tons.

More TE:'Cently end La te irl

1954, n.F.

Goodrich and Company obtained 211 80 year conc€ssion covoring about 600,000 28r<;s in two sop<;rat8 10c,,- tions from the LibGri2n ao~~rnmeDt and beg2D plsnting in

1955.

^~s cf the returns mEde for 1962, Li be ri a hc.:;;

121,824

^~cr8S in e st at es of ever

1 0 0 ac^{r - e}a in extc nt ^{a r i d} this ^{a c}ro age tJ0uld ^{L n c}Lude the ^{F ' ir - o}st one

plantations, the Goodrich pl~D~ed 2r0~ and uthar stat0s. Since ant c.ti ons⁹ Li bo r-i an ama I L ho Lde rs neve o.1sot::tken up to pl;,:nting r-llbb8r nd 122,900 2.01'2S c.ra beLi.eve d to "be;; in t",pping in

1962, mak

ⁱ ng E, t ot.a] [;,Cl~C",gG

under

planting in rubber of

244

9 7 2 4 .

Th::: expo rt of ruober fr-o,u Li berie. during the por-Lcd

1955-56

c.round

tions coudng into bce.r-i ng , production C2.n DO oxpect e d to Lnc r-ea se to

60~OOO tons ^by 1970, even i f t ho Goodrioh Compzmy is slow in planting their Bxisting concession.

12. The l&rg~st producur of n2tural rubber in ~fricil at the rres~nt

tim·"" is

Nigeri,c

which e xpo rte d

72

_9°59 tC)1'lS in

1964.

Its industry is based on rubber largely grown on 254,000 acres in small holdings out of a total 2cTc":tge r-ubcer of 288,000. Next in order of i;:;ortance and equal to th&t of Liberia is the Congo which in

1959

had 230,000 acreE under rubber c ul,tivati on , of whic:l 1 ,000 acres ;.J8re 8Stcct",S. The Congo export in 196) was 37,000 tons 2nd the 1964 pruduction droppGd to 34,000 tons, probably due to disturbed political conditions. On its

..

E/81J.14/INR/9 2 Pe.ge

5

p.ree e rrt 2VGr2~-,J:, end the as s umpti c n thrt c,r2:;.S pl2.nted since 1945 Hill COD1,,, .i.nt o full be2.ririg,·tho t.ots.I p·roQ'..;.cilcin "Iro·m the Congo cc n be as muc.r as 60 ₉₀₀₀ tons by 1970 ii s^tQtlG feli tic&l coneli tions prevail. The ._Cam."^{rOOD ..} has...approximat"'1,r4

7

,000 acr-e s.i.unde r rubber, alma^{st .}.a.Ll,

of whi c h are ostateS> Its pr o duc ti.o n in 1963 vH?S '),450 tons.

13 • There has'11so bc,3n r occ nt Lrrt er-c st in the dc ve Lopaorrt of rubber plantation in tho Ivory Coast , Phs Socit

to ....

fricO'.ine das Plantations Hi:.VE;~~S (S~...PH) has pl ante d 30,000 a c r-e e in rubber and while its 1965 pr-c duct a on would only bo 2,600 tens, this pL~_ntation is c xpo cte d to pro duce 12,000 tons per YCC.l' YThon the tot;:.l ac r e age comes into full b0i:ⁿi ng .

14. In East ~...f'r-i ca , rubber grovTing hr.s not be e n very successful, ,=nd wh,'j exists E\S p l arrtrti.o ns 2rG I;re-'1i'2r rGSDEtnts of old sesJling rubber.

In '2f;nZ2.nlc".9 the tot c.I c:xtent under r-ubb...r is 100 ac r e s and tapping heG been 2b2.ndoned on "this Gst2te since 1945· Dg3nd<:- has 7~00O 2cres und.sr r-ubber and .it.s annua l output is only 60 tens. On even c. low yi.e l d of 3-0t poun-cls-·p-e-r &01',", Ug';nda should.

he

:producing~~rounCl

r,ooo tOns-

per yo ~ and the present ~rD~uction S80ffiS to iDdica~8 th0t the major extent of ·~he pL.nted ere:::, has been abandone d 2.3 unec onorri c lor t2pping. In M2.1·.wi) rubber ^W&S plc nte d c.:s fcr 'bac k ^2S 1906 a nd 1,435 ac r e s of this

01(: sGedling r-ubbo r still «xi.st s . Its yield is extr_.Elely low being o n'lv 60 tons per --:/0<'1'. 'I'abl c I gives the C.rea. under p l.arrt a'ti o n in

Eo.2~ ":'frice TGgion does not export any r-ubbe r .

15.

Rt've2. :Brasiliensis grO'lTS 'best i:l C, W2.rm "joist c l i.mate and requires an unnua L: r-ai nf a Ll, of 70-100 .inc he s . It grows well UI) to an a I ti tude of .,~200 ft. Righu r alt i tUd0S h<!VG c suae d vcr-ious 182.f diseases such

2S oid.i.um and this in turn Lea ds t o poor or a l raost 8Mtic bark renewal wi cil cunsequent drop in yi o Ld to uno co norm c 16vo18. Conse querrtLy , high o l e vat i on rubber has ^08C011l2 derelict in 1,10st co urrt r i.e s and r-e c e rrt

prr.ct i ce is to restrict rubber,grcYling to e l e vati o n under 1,000 f t .

fill.

^'C",' _{14 /I '}^{) Q/92}

.J..J ...J.. i L J.lj

Pcge

6

T::. "Ie I

in .Srice, in ••erGS

Country

Li be r.i e Congo

Ivory C02St Ug::.nd.2 Ghsne

Fo^ri:i8r FrG ric h

Equi:'.tori~1 ••f'r-i.ca 1iiRl3.1"i

TOtE,l •.fri c e

1962 195:;

1963 1>'58 1953

I,

;3

ly)8 1945 1953

EstEtos

1)

34,00;;

121,824 167

5009

7),415

12~108

7,000

3~695

2,777 1,430 100 3;5,000

Sm,2.11 Holdings

254,000

122~900

62,838 1,<+83

1,000

442,000

'l\::t::.l

288,O?O 244,724

229

,'~97

46,098

12,100

7

^~,JOO

4,6;5

'I'

2,777

1,L..30 100

1337,000

SourCG: Ruooe r Sti':tlsticc,l Bul Lcti n VeL 1)

;.

ere unf s.vo ur eole f.Jr CJ.J.;l1.j;,ic ,~..:' 1ilYJ6• It lS ;"rhi,"8 _st fur j·l&lG, ....i end

cr01=s.

Lib8ri~.::., CO:1go, C, ,,:ero .;11 and Lvor-y Coa st , is tho uoat SJ.ltc.ble area for r-ubue r c u.l ti vati on , 'l'he c ou.rt ri c s in t hi s r;:;gion hcv., the c Li n;ctic ^;}:JD- diti:::ns end tarrr;in eu.i t c b.l c l::lr gr:Jwth'nd hi,~h yi e Lds , Rubbor- H::'8

Lntr oducc d tc:.(~st •.f r i c a c nl y in tile: 10''08 t1;~JntiGs and ,:,UC:1 of the

aC~~~68 is still young rubber. Libarie, Kigeri~, C~ngo end ^~a~aroon 2re aLr e ady pr~)ducing over IjO,OOO tcna per ye:c,T n., ,1itn new 'tr'e e s COLling into t2Ling, this ;;..rciuction will probably i'cCre?,86 to 20J,000 tons by

1970.

i/

^Estate acreages refer to ho l d.i ng s over 100 acres.

"~'!i

2J/CF.14/E

^{T ] / 9 2}

.:. c 3 7

"

Ccuntry I\iZCTi:

Lioeri.e

Cent r-aL ~.i'riC:'T

Repub1io

196::

1;;63 1)64

59

1 1 3 1

63

1207

72,\)59

44,675 39,529

41

, 893 36,93 6 36,99 6 34

1 ° 0 0

4,000

;: ,,+)0- + n •^.:.

.

680 1,000

n ,^P~.

342 338

^.,,~... l."'C.. • •^.'~

14./,75° 150,500

^{.,.L),~,~.--.:.;9~,- ,'~,I)V}

tuns p0r j8~'r 2£ whicl: 2C,6JJ t~ns of n-,·t~r~l ruoo~r '~nQ 12,jOO t~ns

7 0 , 0 0 0 t.o^{n s,} Tl1'2 e^{x . is} t^a n., ;^{L r . n}t . t ^{i . cn} ~~-i0ustr:I ^{i s} 11>':':- 1..";/ ^{a n} t!18 ~1(;:'.P;Y'"

C~Jsu~ing co~rltrio~~

+ Incl "ding .e ste r n Cal;.eroon .

.hI

TIns c xc l udc s Suuth ~.:':ric", ,n::... r(;'~r:'-3Gnts ^". :POluL,tion of

245

.ai.Ll i.on ,

~/'~"141 "

.t:.J/ ^J!.','. i

h e

8

onl i l

h..S

pI

r~st ~~frica

h2S, on the other n.nd , cc ra.i c c r _,10 l:'-=tentic:.1₉ "but tile continued Gzis- t5YlC6 of thG ;rG8snt inlus(~ r~d n8~~ 11[~t:tions th~t ~~y b0 sst blished

• will depend on t'~alr a llizctlon of Ll

Ub0 of sJn~i9tics in G~C ru~~ar cons~JiYlg countries will

continent in ~he joint GCOYlo ...i : _~-~ar~st, i f not for r~rS0ns of security.

in its ^v~rious stb68stC l'ull

E/CN.14/IIiR/92

Page

9

CONSUlfi.P?ION TBEi;DS

1

22. The total world l.,roduction of r-ubce r , both natural and .syrrthet i.c , in

1963,

was

4,562,500 long tons. In 1964,

the production

increased.

to

4,852,500

tons. 'I'he co nau... tioD of ruobe r has bae n al.taoat equiva- lent to production and the ave re ^d warli ..:eI' ca,Pita CODSU;;Jjtion of r-ubcoz- ,las 3.21 :founds in 1963. The oons umpti on of r-uuber , E.?r caIJita co nsump ti.o n and tyre production of ² few selected countries in Asia,

Europe, America and

Africa

are

given

in Table III.

Table III

Popula- Pounds G.D.P. Tyre pro-

Vehicles

Country Co r..eump

t i

on tion in

per _~ duotion

in use

tons 1963 millions capita

capita

in 100,000 in 1,000

--

12ft3. IWL

^~963

^1.902

USJ" 1,764.014 _169-3 . _20.85

_• ^,

.- _{1392.0 77,9-+'1.0 .'}

Canada 119,784 18.9 14.20 120.4 5,741.7

.l>.ustralia

69,156

10·9

14·0 50.0 3,053.1

UK

306,9

00

53.8

12.8

n.a. 8,127.5

ilest Gemany

292,734 55·4

^11.8

^1)6.8 6,968.0

France 248,763 47.8 11.7 202.8 7,947.8

Italy

177 ,100 50·9 7·9 ^o.a. 3,523·9

NetherlanJ.s

34,157 12.0

6.'-/

n.a. _915·3

Japan

317,920 95·9 6.0 205.. 8 2,530.4

PoLand _51,500 30.7 3.8 _15·2 307.8

South l.frica

_33,000

_{17.0 ;+. ).} 2003

1,231.4

Brazil

6;,345 76.4

2.0

254 33·0 1,043.7

( 1960)

Ceylon 5,000 '10·7 LO

120

1.5 117.9

tLR

7,700 27·9 ^0.6 2.4 97.4

India _70,698 460.5

0-34

18.0 586.5

China _107,500 728.0 ₀₀₃₃

n.e.

u.s..

iforld total

4,562,500 3,218.0 3·2 Source: Consumption: Rubb8r Statistical

Population and Tyre Production: International

Statistical .Bulletin.

E!CN.14!INR!9 2 Page

10

23.

It will be seen from the above table that the USA occupies a

pre-eminent position as the largest consumer of rubber with a per capita consumption of

20.85

pounds, followed by Canada and Australia with

14.0

pounds, the UK with

12.8

pounds, France and Germany with

11.8

pounds and Italy with

7.9

pounds. The only Asiatic country to approach the Western countries in per capita consumption is Japan 'i'iith 6.0 pounds. The most advanced Latin American country, Brazil, which had

624,000

motor vehicles in

1955

and six tyre plants·with a capacity of three million tyres pro- duction per year, only averaged a consumption of

2.0

pounds of rubber per head of population. In Asia, developing countries like India and CLina havR not averaged a per capita consumption of anything higher than

0.34

pounds.

24.

In Africa, South Africa is the most advanced with a per capita

co ns umpti.on..of .3~8

..

.pounda, .arid theU.A,R,,,,h1.l e higher than India and China, is still low at

0.6

pounds per head. The high consumption in the USA and Eur-ope a n co unt ri e s is..due no t •...,,.;[y to the fact that these countries have _·t5:5";Jv·-jier-cm1rt-O:r-1:"h"8·'·-rni",l·number of' veb\Cles registered on their roads

but also bec~u~e of their exports of tyres and other rubber products to those countries of Asia and Africa which have not developed their own manufacturing industries.

25.

In

1955,

the per capita consumption in the USA was

19.0

pounds while the average for the rest of the world was

1.0

pound per head. In

1)63,

the USA consurnptlon per capita was 20.B5 pounds while the rest of the world average· was

2.07

pounds . . The re~t of the world average figure in- cludes some large per capita consumers such a>.:> Ca nada , Australia, the UIC,;

Pra nce , Italy5 the Netherlan:is .S""nci Jap(.~n. The USn. i;ind these seven countr-Le s , which represent a population of

535

tn.i

Ll

i o n c o nsume d in

1963, 3,33),528

tons averaging a per capita consumjetion of

14.0

pounds. The rest of the world, representing

2,683

millions, only consumed

1,232,000

tons and had a per capita consump~lonof 1.0 pounds~ ~nong the last cateGory are included all the Latin Awerican countries, the countries of Asia exc~pt

Japan, all Africa, the USSR and all Europe except the five co unt ri e s UK, France¹ Germany¹ .the :~8thsrL.:~nis a nd Italy.

S!CJ\7.14/I Ha

/ 9

²

11

iiotor vehicle :e£,j:ulaticn

In 1960, the number of

• j . rr:illion vE<liclGs.I'r~e annut I r-ata of L;cre·~.·e in Ame:ci-;a was only

3.5

per cent fer the ~eriod

195J-60

while the race of increase for the

!iSlst of the world. '-" s as 1:1;h as 10 l e r cent. This sume t:r'dYl has con- ti.nu eri U}: <;0 'the reSJnt time ani 1;lL last avails Le fi2,'ures for 1 2 s hou the wor-Ld reeisl,_u.ti2r:;:; to l)'2

13).7

j,lillion '.1i1;(l .-".me:rican registra- tions

,,,,t

apj.r oxa ma el~T

80

un Ll Lo n, The annua I rs.te of Lncieaae of rnoto r vehi c l.e registrations .in the de ve Loj.Lng countries⁷ ~_articularl;y in Lat r n

.~,meri-::a, .;'.f'rioD, Ja!"j:iu and lialaye h",veo€en as high as 10-1) )61' cent

~ul'in5 the last five yee:s. 1\,cI IV SIlOWS the 1'egistre~ions in 1946 and

1955

n some of the Latin AITH:JricCl!l co untr-L 13'1 the ~.er ce rrt Lncre a se arid the ty:"'6 j r-oduct i cn cc..)8,city it: tce se countrue s in

1955.

Tatle IV

:'" tir. Ar:::.erica

1963

_{Regi st ritions Cerrt} "'''l'-

of Tyre

:i:ro-

Country IO-1,ul a ^{~iOYi .,t8r J";O •} duct on

in miLli.ons

1946 1955

Ir:orease Tyre '::lants

19 5

.b.rgentina .19.8.. 2.s5~610

477,593

^.<::.~ '+^A

^1,235,000

Brazil 60.2 ^v

0

,7J.l 170·4 ^{0/ 3~113,OOO}

ChilE;

6

^.uQ )2, b.33

93,065 ^76.2

^{1 160,000}

Colombia

12.

^'7I

36,000 146,744 307.

4 550,000

Cuba

6.2

,.

43,434

17),449

·3

^{2 150,000}

Mexico 30.0 215,000

468,281 127.2 5

^900,000

:Foru 9·4 ^{31,607 10},561 22.5·5}

^{2 230,000}

Uruguay

^,-~.o^/"

33,310 99,200

192.0 1 132,000

7ene;juela

6.1

40~l47

234

73

479·3 4 ^700,000

Source. Rubber De ve Lo: metres in Latin America l;y J •.• rhi1ps.

3:!;F.14/n'Ri9 2

.tc~G 12

27. The tot s I c o nsu.., ti or J1 r,""cer Lr. 1955 .of tne Letin iLerics"

AT 1~tin2 20 per ce~t ~~exico

15

^{per ce~t.}

1946. T'te ~Gtal Con~~~ tio~ of tyres in tile region was six :.illlo!l i~

1935 ~t_~ls ~rodac~~o~ in 29 plants ~ nine co~ntri2S for the sa;j8 years

1",'38

5,37:),000

s.

self-su::::.ci:ie:~t in r-uibe r goods a I though tyre p roducti o n is restricted to the ~ine GO ntries listei in Table IV. I'n s f i r-st tyre ll18_r~ufacturi!J:::-:

.indust r-y ~!3S os: 01ishe'i 28 d:::rly as 1925 r n Iiexi co , 1930 i" Ar~antina

.and 1936 in Brczi1, t"rs:r.ty ex::: of tte 29 tyre £':::'.ctori s l'!,~r'~ estr oli s he d cefore.,1946. ^{'The o.e v e Lo} ,:lent o f t h i s L n d u st r-y h a s t s.csn 1='lac8 o v e r t n r c e

176 millions,

1963

is estiill2ced ^{'t:j"lS. m';L l.'3-} co nsu.njti.o n

The rest of

I'u e :~er c'2,pita co nsu.nrt i.cr; of rubber for tni s tT'Jup of countri e ; r s , the r-efo^{r'e ,} o n.lv 0.2 l=ounds.

s cti sf'ac GorJr, had not; fui-tnc r sne.l]sis Sl.10Wn tae ~1iu.e var-Lcti c n L. con-

the UAR conswced 7,700

^{t:DS - _snd}

Tyre ;"8/~tori-2S e x.i st in Algeria, Ei~~:eria,

R'lOdesia ar.d the UA;,: 0.Dd ~h8 (';':::n:z:..L.l-=.,tion 0 .... r'uc oer- in these four coun- tries is estimated atI7,OJJ tons. Kenya^J 21t~lOu:.~h not yet ;,ianuf ctu- ring ';:10 tOT arid"tr JC~~ -t:l:r~-S--9" as'de-va-l-oped'8,"I"'~l c.:;tlei'·'~~ -G·dS---rH·a-nt;,:.f..a'G-t.L~ring

base with production of rub ... -.:...-· s.ioe s , oicycle tyres ,~ni 1;-,,"'C88 and r'et t'eadⁱ ng on 8. lS::'-\~:2

at 1,000 tons.

scale ani its .ri.r e c^t rubtlsT caLSU,.;t;ion . ^.

l S ~~t;:"'Iil2

-;;0."1

r/c.,~

i

4'r'J"'/92

.~ ',J"'~" ;-'."'1.

Ps.ge 13

30. On the basis of these e cti r.rt e a , the c ocrrt r-i.e s of Africa, excluding South Africa, Rhodesia, Alc;,"ria and the UAR, and representing a popula- tion of 210 ,];illion in 1963, conswne ciireccly in m-.riufae-eur-e only 6,3DO"""

to

,:;500

tons of rubber ..

rrhe

pe.r carita. co ns u.aptLo n for the 40 countries':' (inel uding j\Iada2-aSCJr⁵ Reunion and Iiauri tius out excl uclino South Africa,

c-'

Rhoclesia, Algeria and the UAR) is only 0.07 pounds of rubber. Un these countries the rubber corls~J.br:tionis e xc e e d.i ng ly lOT,[ and whi Le this in- dustry has ma.,e 80:118 ~)ro.,~ress in Nic)eria uhe r e a tyre f~,cc-cory exists, and in Kenya whe r-e a r a n e of .J._rodu:~ts includir~g shoes, bicycle t,yr08 an" tubes are already bei n , manut'act ur-e d , all the other 38 have little or no manuf a turi n.; Lnaustry , I'he rate of .re ve Lopmerit re_~uiredwould be see n by the i'011o'V1in2' comy.a r-i sons .

Table V

Count::,y ^iopul.a^tLo n

in !liillions

Fer n"pita

cons un.pti on 01' rubber in pounds

Africa

U.b.l.i.

Africa

210 0.07

17 3.8

28 0 .. 6

4

^2.0

11. 7 0.5

3.8 0.2)

0.2

1.5

178 233 Lati,-; Junerica

Rhodesia

1 (excl~ding

s.

Afrisa) 2 (excluding 3. Africa,

UAR, Algeria and Rhodesia)

South Africa

Algeria Kenya

Mention has a Ir-eady been made that in Africa (excluding South Africa) tn., j.re se rrt rubber consumption is 22,000 tons per ye&r. Po approach the present ~er c8",i ta co ne uu tion of the U.•R the region will have to utilize an odditional 48,000 tons of ru.ber and to att2in 1.0 pound per capita

c o r . s u . n 't^{i . o n,} its direct ^{c on su . a p}t i.or; should increase to 113,OCO tons per

year which entails an additional 91,000 tons.

E/cn •14/ n;,i/92 Page 14

31.. A practical goal for t i.e ruoue r industry in Africa wcul d be the

a~tainment

of

0.6

pounds per

heau

consUlliftion

by

1970 and expansion to,

one -pound T)er caT.ita by 1975 .. Tnis involves the e s^tacLi e amei.f of t.e n

factories for passenger production each with an annual capaeity of 250,000 by 1970, and poasibly 20 tyre factories by 1975

with the simultaneous de vo l oj.me nt of other tories for bi.,?'ycle

tyres

a~dtubes, rubber an~ canvas snees nnd meGh2nic~1 oDO~S~

•

.2,/.jJ .14/IN~·V92 Page 15

DIliECr AND IHDIR3CI' RUBBER CO~';S:jlJI:FTTGN IN ·THE EAST AFRICAN SU:B-B.EGION .32. The East kuican sub-region constitutes the 12 countries shown in

'I'ac.le "Ill. Th~:'YIevious paragra.phs hav8.Eilready shown the J"argS?_.Y.?,:r:ia- t i on in. direct. rubber corsuuj.ti on in Africa and the East African s ub- . region ccunt rie e show similar char'acte'ri eti c s , Rhodesia is the mcst

adv~nced in r~bb~r manuf~c~urB, with local ~roduction of ~senger7

truck , .bicycle tyr~s and tubes, and canvas r'u ot.e r shoes. Its retreading cap-.c Lty in l~,'plants is in excess of its re<~uirements. The per cal.:i~~

conaumpti on of. .rubbe r in 10Gal manufacture is aj.p roxa.mat.eLy 2.0 l=ouuds.

,In ~;pit\3 of this develo merit: Rhodesia iuli:orted .

.$3.5

million worth of

r'ubne r goods. ; l.

33. Kenya is the next in or'de r of de vc Loj.merrt , It has some 11 factories, two of which manufacture 1.3 million bi9yc1e'tyrds

rer

year, one a large manufacture of' e ho e s and all the others are in r~~I'eading~.. It l:IJrorted '542 tons of crude rubber and 850 tons of retread, camelbac~ and ot~er

_ _ _ _ 0_ • • • •, _ . . , . , • • • • • • _. . . • - •, ••- • • , " . "._-+ ._.-••- - .~-- _ .• _ ••

.mvul c ani i.e d r-uo oe r compounds , Its direct co ns ucipti on of rubber is '. s ho vn in Table' VII to be 1148' tons and. pe r heed consumption was J.25

po.und in 19.6 3~- Tts--Jlo·tor·vehic1e<20p,ul-eti:o-n- i-e-0'7,000 in'-19&4' 3rrd i·t··

is s e co nd only to Rhodesia which has 15)~000 r3",isterei vehicles on its roa:~S.

reg:Lon for the manufacture of a fp,ir rc'nge of n::oh, nical ~s⁷ and this f'actory f'o rmuLate s its own rubber c ompounde f rorn ra/lrubber. The

reE,:i.stered. vehicles in 1963 in z.amb.ie s.n.l I'anvani.a are estimated to be 34. Zambia and Tanz2nia are in the ea:::-lyc;L0c.:es of develo];:.Jent and 'lolhi:.e .""ambia is using 232 tons of c r-ud.o rUbC2^r wh.i.cn it cotnpounc.ed to proliuce its own camelbacK, most of Tanzania's c nsu~~ tion

is

^{in the form}

of t.m, orted camelbacic , Tanzania, ho we ve r , has the only factory in this

---

52

7°00 and

42,000

respec;;ively.

B/CH.14/r:~l1./72 Page 16

Table

VI

Base

Year

127

⁰

1975 1980

lop. G.j.? rop.

G.J.f.

Pop. G.D.i.

Fo;.

^f!...) • .J6oJ:".^{~. ....}

Country ^Base mill. _~ mill.

Eer

^{ml11. per mill. per}

Year

ca,pi ta oa+~i

t-a

^ca:;ita

..

^c8,nita.

US,. US". US"

^USs.;

1-

Burundi

1963

2.~

52.2 _3d 58·5 3.7 66.6 4.2 75.0

2.

Ethiopia

1966/7 22·9 46.0

23~8

5°·2 ^{26-3 59.4 29·0 70.4}

}. Kenya

1962 3.6 79.2 10·3 99.. 9 ^11.

^g

115·7 ^13·6 134·4

-'I i'ialagasy

1960 5·4 ^{105·6 6.2 146.8 6.8 171.1} 7.6 _195·4

-r '"

5· ^{Na1awi 1963 ).3 34.4 4.6 38.9} 5·3 ^44.1

^{6.1 50.1}

6.

l;Iau:r'i tius

1965 0.7 245 .. 6 0.8 274·3

^{1.0 280.0 1.1}

325.

⁰

7.

Riiode s La

1963 4.1 209.2

j.O 232.)

6.0 247.1 7·1 266·5

8.

Rwanda 1964-

3·0 45·3 3·0 60.8 3d 70·5 3·5 ^;)4.9

9·

^00malia

¹⁹⁶⁵

^2.2

56.4 2.4 66.0 2.7 14·9 2.9 89.0

10. Tanza~1ia

1960/2 0·4- 54.9

11.3

32.2

12.6

102.1

14.1

126.3

1I.

Uganda 1962

7.0 63.7 8.6 88.2

10.0

109.6

11.4

138.1

12. Zar"bia

196'5 3.7

^190.0

4.2 ^228.0

..'}-9

266.7 5·7 ^312.8

Total and

GDP

ev , 73-7

75·2 83·5 ^'94.2 94.4 110.7 106.2 132.0

ev , av , av. av, avo

Source: ECA Industry Division

3Y.

Ethiopia has two retreading factories, two shoe factories which use I'u:"ber for soles and a canvas rubber shoe factory WiEh a capacity of cne and a half willion pairs is due to come into ~roduction in

1965.

Its resent direct ru;:,ber conS';).iciition is less than 200 tons per year - out is expected to incre&se tc 500 tons in 1966.

36.

Uganda has three TeeTS dins fastories based on iiliported camelback

from~enya. The Durilop Ruboe r COf,l.fany have now installed a Oicycle tyre

",-, __~,. .,;,,_~".~H'.

and. tube jLarrt in Jinja with an annual IJToduct.l.an capacd,ty of oLle willian tyrss and one r;;illion tubes. It has an automobi.Le popul.ati on of 32,OGO and a1

t

ho ugh its 'pres€nt annual ud re cc rucbe r consum,tion is es-r;iIlJ2tecl at 1<:..,0 tonst th.is woul d increase to 60J-630 tons ,in.en the .Jicycle tyre

factory Callies ida full ,;::roducHon by the end of

1965.

~!,~- .14/n~~j92

?G.3:e

.17

T'ablevlI

Direct RubboI' ~ti1i22tion

Value in ~1000

Country Ye2r V",lue

" 3513--.----''")748

232 201

342 1142

32 232

rii.I 180

200(esti-"

1I12te)

no

110.

nil

n.a.

toYfS-'

264 '-'--"235

72 55

7'48 600

231 200

211

16D

144

no

13'~

no

11,a. 11.a.

1964 1963 1962

1963'

1963 196) 1963

Hauriti us

TanZ8nfa

Zthiopia Uganda

'Somalia nil

'Rwanda ·and. 3ur~nd.i

( ti " )

. He>, ~~ l"'''" ' . _ V u^.',~ n.a. L.a . 51(.esti-

mate)

Total

6060

nanuf act ur-Ln., un.i,t lor r'uuoe r , hcve one o r: tvo node st retrec:.diug plants oasel on L. orted oa^{r ,}iC;;L.k.C~. I'h e r,IJuer,oods manuf act uri.ng industry in the countries of tile ~G..jt ."'fri·::", Scl.IJ-re~·iOD, e xc Luda ng Rhodesia, is therefore in its very 68.rlJ sta,..:;-=,s of cleveLhl12nt 21 though as 'I'a ol e VIIl

-··-~1

sllG-region has 350,00J r'3,sister0d. u.oto r veui c I s ,

~'lbl.e ^{'~·~T.~'..L.1. ..:..}

i.otor Ve~,ic1es in Use

A Passenger Cars B CommerciEll Vehicles Total Total Vehicles Unit lOCO

lYl ^'.l~_e

~.,_... ..._-- 1960 1901"···

1962 1963

Country

A ^-r-; Tobl

,.

_{3 Total A :B Total} Bstir:lctsi

...L' - ) .

tot21

1.Ethiapia

ll

_1'5·2

_{. 8.8}

_{24·0 10.0}

_{5·1 15·1}

_{12·9 6~4}

_19·3

_22.

_o

Kenya 2&3/

64.6 13·1

77.7 ^{O·f.(~ ,-.c.} 9~6

74.0

65.7 10.1

75·8

^87·E,

3&4/

2).7 5·2

30·9

25·3 ^{".:' n 30.]} 24.2

5·0

^{29·2 32.0}

Uisa n da-"'--'-' . / . V

3&11/

_2.).4

9·2

35.6

^{2;5.1 o ~} 37·5 30.1

9·7 ^{39.8 42. :,::.}

2.Tanzania '"t / '

.

^./

Rwanda !S.

Burundi 3.6 2.2 3·0 ^{j .C'}

Zambia

Y 34.0

13.0 47·0

3; .

^rrI _{12·5 4-'·2}

36.9

ILl

48.0 52.0

Ie 1^{'la awi}

·Y _6.4

_{5·3 11.7} ^'7I .0

5·7

^{12·7 '7I}

·9 ^{6.) 14.4}

^15·0

3.^Iiia1 agasy I ' " ! ' ~

2,J.O

41. :5

^22.1 21.

'9

/~4.'J

24·5 23.1

^{. '-t}

7.6 sc.J

c:::.1..V

Mauritius

ll _9.0

_3.8

_12.8

_{) .}

₇

_{'-;- • c:.}

_{13·9 10.2}

_:'j.•l~

_{14.6 1).)}

Reunion

6.7

3.)

1:).6 3·7 ^{4.6 13-3} 7·0

^).0

^{12.0 14.0}

Somalia

2.6 3·9 6.5

^{2 •.}

⁶ 3·9 6·5

^3.0

4.1 7.1 G.O

4.Rhodesiai!

88.8 34·6 ^123.4

93·4 36.2

134.6 107.0 36·3

143·3

150.C'

Total

499.3

1:./

^{1960 fi~ures} include ve h.ic Le s no longer in ci r cul at i on

y

Tnc Lude s vehicles opera e d by }'~o1ice and other securitJ organizations ] ) Lig:lt co.,.."arclal ve lri.cLes .incLuded wi,th :passenger

AI

Excluding Government vehicles

Z/CK.14/

^{I NR/9 2}

Page 19

3v.

The direct conswilption in the form of crude rU0ber and camelback of ~he countries in the East African sub-region is snown in Table VII to be approximately

6,000

tons, of which Rhodesia consumed

3,700

tons.

In view of the relatively high development of this industry in Rhodesia, its inclusion would present an unrealistic picture of the state of the industry in the sub-region as a whole • . Rhodesia will·· therefore be excluded from the analysis. The sub-region excluding Rhodesia repre- sents

11

countries with a population of 69.6 million and a direct con- s umpt

Lon

of rubber of

2,300

tons peTo·'year. 'This in terms of per cati ta co nsumj tion will only be

.07

pound.

39. To arrive at the total consu.spti c n of rubber it is necessary ..to Lnc I'udeTfhe" iuii'6-rts 0·[ tyres and other r'u t.be r goods into the sub-region.

The largest cor".c0nent of L:,;:orts is tyres and tubes both for

.no

to r vehi- c l e s and bicycles.-- The next larges:LiqpQrtinto...z he tsrI'-itory is---foot-

, .-._-.-•._.,-_.__...-~_•.''''_..---- ..:... ..." _....•,

wear made wholly 01' par-tLy of rub-bel' and mechanical goods suoh as belting, hose, motor Car parts, washers, mountings, sales. and heels,

battery cases, etc. .:

40.

Statistical data on iOl,orts, ·wi th breakdown into product grouping is Lot available for most of the countries of the suo-region. 'Elee best available for all ccunt r.i e s is the value of ilJ,orts of rubber goods under classification 621 and 629. Table IX below sows these im;orts.

'--r1. The total market in the region, c xc Ludi n-, ::.thodesia, is

,.,26.5.

million of uhicLJ. the i"._port of Tt-':'S a.ud tul.e s abDve cost at C.I ..J'.

vc Lue ,,;2l.2 million. Thl"l ba Le nc e ~5.3 millior: l"ei~rt-3,_~nt.s belts, belting, foa.« rubber., hose., f o o twe er and i;;8ch:.:::nicals. r~iis d.oes not include the tyr :s. __ q,.nd ..ruhbcrcoIn.:c ,o.n@};t-e··-e·-f c.rs,---'blises ,-·--·tr"lC'.~-8-,--'·"'·j'-:'e-~:s, and'bic;i6i e s

L~~~_orted into these countries ..

42. Thara is a vai l.a o.Le in six 01' the count ri c s 01' ,,18 sull-rebian,

etc

tr:

on t~J weight of rubber goods im~orted. By assessment of the weight of the products from a com" utation of the value of the other countries and on the as sum: tion that average rubber content of these products is a thiri, a rough estimate of indirect rubber conslliTIption Can be arrived

3/;1'1.14/IN;'/9 2 Page 20

at. This inli:cec-c c o ns umvt Lo n of r-ubbe r contributedo;:r the im~:ort,of rubber is com;.uted to be 14·~to 15'2 ,million .pounas or 7,000 tons.

This t heref'or-e represents the indit;enous manufacture re,.uired to meet the demands of in; ort suosti tution in 1963. The total direct and indirect co nsumrtt on in the 11 countries can be assun.ed for that year to be 9,300 tons, and thei.r Fer capita co nau.. t i o.r; on this com. utation will be 0.35 pound.

Table IX

Value of lml-orts

-

Classification 621 and 629

Value Value

Total

Country Y6ar Othery Tyres &

value in

•

(621 ) tubes₍₆₂₉₎

y

^~'ooo

Zambia 1964 676 3,777 4,453

Malawi 1964 102 849 951

M:adagascarl! 1963 837 2,248 3,085

MauritiuslJ' 1963 1,034 930 1,9 64

Tanzanial!

,

1963 518 2,484 3,002

Uganda

Y

_{1963 408 2,553 2,961}

Kenya 1963 1,174 2,9 85 4,159

'Somalia 1963 1 624 625

Ethj,or i a" 1963 576 3,310 3,886

Reunion 1963 729 729

R"an·ia ^& Burundi :Sstimate 700 "700

Total 5,3 26 21,189 26,515

JJ

621 all rubber goods other than tyres and tube s .

y

629 almost exclusively passenger, trucL, bicycle tyres and tubes in ,,'000.

l!

Excludes insulated wire and caJles under 621 and values in

S'OOO,

f'!"l¹1

E/CN.14/INR/92 FaiSe 21

43. The target for all Africa, excluding South Africa, by 1970 was the attainment of a per capita consulliption of 0.6 pounds. In the East African su~,-region"e have at least one country, Rhodesia which has a consumj.ti cn of 2.0 .counds .er head, a figure considerablY higher than the tar

set

9 and Kenya has also ffi&d8 feir pro 5ress in this industry to attain a fer ca~oita consumption of 0.25 pound. ~3he~t.al\setoi'0.6

pounds per head in the suq-l'egion incLlding R;lOdesia by 1970 will e nt aa I the conau.njti on of 22,000 tons. Rbociesian consumption is alread;{ around 4,000 tons and would probably increase to at leadt 5,000 tons by 1970.

Tr,E rest of the region will therefore need to use 17,000 toes. The di.r-ect co neurn, tion of ruouer in the sUD-region e xc.l.udi ng Rhodesia will hsve increased in 1965 from 2,300 to 3,100 tons. The de voLopmerrt in me r.ur'acturi ng plants for acicii tional tyres, tubes, e ho es and nechan.i caI goods should therefore be j.I anned for th e new co nsumjt Lon of 13,900

tCLS.

,

E/

CI1.14/INi{j92 Page 22

OI-1..1T=::8. V

RUK3:JR Li...NUFA8TUUNG D3V~,LOIIISNT IN .i..'HIi:

':;.nsr

i~F.a.ICJj,r Slli3-REGION (excluding fu~odesia)

1. I\lotor tyres and tube~

44.

In the USA, tyre and tube manufacture ac~ouDts for

67

ler cent of the total consumption ofr uooe r , but in EUl.~ore and other advanced coun- tries this manufac"ture accounts for

80

per cent of rubber consumption.

In the develoi--ing countries of Asia and Africa tyres and tubes of auto-

~""

mobiles and bicycles p ro oab'Iy utilize

65

l)er cent of the total rubber consumed. The d~velo .llient of the ~otor and bicycle tyre and tube industry is, therefore; of major Lmpo r-t ance. (

45.

The motor vehicle ~opul~tion in use in

1963

in the su~-region was 350,000 and if rates of increase in other Jevelorints. countri as elra a guide, th~s population will increc:se at the rate of around

5

per cent cumulative to over 500,OCO in 1970. 'rhe replGc~ment tyre market alene for this ~oo:pulation.\'il1 be 800,000 t,/res per armum ,"I The numbe r of

~lants re~uired, the economy of size, the rationalization of sizes, and suo-regioY!al market requirements and the .:.:roble1s of know-Low would rightly be rna^t t e r-s of esreat im,'ort and these are considered in greater detail under a separate headirg.

2. Bic.ycle tyres and tubes

{"-

46. :

In-most de ve Loj.Lng countries, the bicycle is the joo r n.ants trans} ort and its use has Iie e n increasing at the rate of 20 'per cent per annum in .n.frica. Although it has not re2=:hed high ropularity in countries of mountainous te_rain like Sthiopia and Madagascar, most of the other countries with cities on flat terrain are large im-orters of bicycles and rubber C01"J:onents for bicycles such as tyrtc;s, tube s , brake-

" - -..-/

blocks, pedal rubbers and mudguard flaps. '

47.

The bicycle po pul a t.Lorr in the 2ast ;.frioan sub-region could not be assessed acc_rately as no system of l~censinG exists and Gost of the

countries have no separate classification for this itew in the scatistical

-LJ/:v",o:14/I_i.il 72 Fage 23

j'8 1:::. o r t s . n18 count.rLee i;rtr....orting' bicycles in la1'2;8 nwnbers are.Tan2..ania,

~'y ' . •; ,".

~;c'''l....,-1, '.-' ?

l>~r yr::E;r. LalCt:i? ..'laur:i.tius?lt_2d8.~,asc :c a nd Et n Lc j.La 'bet~12eD them an- nuaLly Liliort only 5C,008 \Jic~/~clas. The other countri e s Somali, Reunion, R'landa and B-'j,r,ndi ~'o.:;,s~-i)l.y i,,~ort Tnother 15,000 bicycles - making a total iilllort into this I'egion of 165,000 }jer :I2&rG

48.

'I'he use of bicyeleS oy tne j.rlriigeno'l.s 0 u.l eti o n \,vill i r.c re. se? wit.n

»ue expe cte d rise in per capita income e.nd tC18 .inc r e^cae in fOpu12tion.7 (O-·:_.1e Table VI). 'i'he demand for nev ci cy ca Ls ldill ,~,lready hove reached :'00,000 -b.y 1965 and perhaps c c rrti nue to rise.

rne hill

co~ntries would be al ore r as they 1'lOuld. ;~referentially use inoto r-i z e d ':Ji8ycles with

:_nitial higher cost wni cn Ie/ould retard ral'id 6I'o1tJt~h-of t...:..e bJ..c~/cle popu- lation. By 197.0, the sub-u-e gi o^{r; 88 2,} who Le JJa;I have ^3. kiicycl€ l-,opulation

~n excess of three ~il1ion.

iii th the riuti a I .Iemand for 2'JJ₉J OC) -:,ic;ycles (It

,.

is also ho~:ed that

~.oc&l as s e.ab.ly plants TtTould ce established. in tne fi r....st instance and

rro~Tessive manuf ac^ture of

.such unit is to ....,E: establisheci shortly in Uganda by Tubular Lnvas trae nt s ,;ndUnited .ifrica Ltd. t'o r a p rc d uctLo n of ~'J,OOO bi cvc l c s •

.

InJ.le;snous^.

;excl:~lding RL106.es~L&) is tvTO rri Lli o n ar.d

?50 OOu" bi, ,... ,[.c I c s 1-0 -"",c}, <:oc'-'e·Y,1~,""1·d ~'r~/oI'

' - } v -', ~... " "-''---- C-'-kl':> .,...^~. c: _d.

as s emb.ly and. later full Tf!2nu..fscture £,ro'vi:ies ? local Lie.rket for tyres9

t~:~~(3[!' brp'j~e-blocks , 'p9Qal rubbers -- in addi t i o n to replacement i t eras , 50.: Assuming t nat the 1-r~s8nt stock of b.icyc Les lIJ-rt.he stJ.:b-region

allowin[ for 3D ave r age of

manuf~ctured locallY9!tbe

C0n- r , , "

sunj.ti o n demCind wi l L be 4'~ million t.yre s and 4~- rr:illion tubes in 1967

»L th -, ossible demand rising to 5~ million by 1;:170.

31. Tl16 IJI'oduction of bi cyc Le tyres and t ube s is i'bsently .re str ic te d to o r;e country in "the sUD-region - Kenya. 'I'he total out.j.i-t of 1,25(;,000 tyres and 500,000 tu ie s is produced by ~von i.\~uber Comj.any in Nairobi and Beta Shoe Co.npany in Lj muru , In Uganda, llunlops have ihstalled a f'act.o ry ;-Jith a l:,roduction capacity of one million bicycle tyres and one :nillion bicycle tube s , The total c apaci ty in the .region is 2,250,000

tyres a n« 1,600,000 tube s .1'he s no rt.fa l L In tui.e s ;i2s.weco AvonIS

;nanufact'~rin, only ty r-es and this is pro c2,Jly e Lr-e ady filled.

~2 !

^{'71' . 'I . " "}

"~

^{- 1}

~ • flne lresent; ;i8,r,Vn::l l3 J:1St uncer lour imL iOD tyrea and 8'iu.i,valent

i

.l;iJ.b$S bndthe proje'ted ....8l,;and in 1970 k;ill be ):2 ,;.;illian tyrcs and 5~

",illla;, ~:/D~S. 'Tne .01·o,i'J.ct~on re '" ....::.'&),';;,e·t;d3enn:H,' .ri.I 1;J70 will therefore 06 3~i:,illlCn

Gonsu~1,.ti8Don r.;~jia l1::nl ~l'odi)ct.Lon,;ill be 'c.j:roxir",,-;:;ely 1,500 t ons , r .-.:,

million t;:rres and tube s , 3- Sha8S

54.

^jI The next use of rUl/oer of 2ny im" o.r cance is in~lle Sh08ll1Q.ustry.

Rhodesia. In Tan~ania, I-Dot 2.

astic rnouliel 8 ..,es, ~hile r~bber ~nd Laa~her shOeS BrB

canvas "'.1':(1

producini 2.,.";,000

small ~stlC shoe f~ctQries.

exists'in S08alia and Malawi.

r

.' There is ^SO,j1S degree of co rre.l ac Lon Let ,:een, Lhe.,per' ca;.:i ta C:.)~. ~ •

RhodE,sie. Its Q;;;iLy pro cuction is 16,000 l-airs of C&I~Ye:p rubber sboe e , 2,000 'p3irs of

tiOD

d sola. snd

I

~Table X

Shoe Production and ConsmDEtior;

0.0 Ci.6

2.0

1.6

3.0

^l.0

LO 2.1

0.0

0·7

0.0

0.8

o "

^{.v 0.1}

6.0 - ^Od

0.0

0.6

0.0 J.j

1.5 1.9

0.6 2.0

q.~

1.3

14·4 13·4

Shortfall in p.ro duct t on Production

in millien pairs

1965

Expected Consumptiot.

}oj,;ulation

G.D.P. per Estimate estimated in

in l1illions

capita

pair

per

million

1910

in

US ..

capita

pairs

1.270

1219

3·3 56.5

^0.20

0.6

23-.8 50.2 0.15 3..6

1:).3 99·9

^{O./~O 4·0}

6.2

146.8 0·5 3·1

~~.6

38.9

^0.14

0.7

0.8 _274·3

l.0

0.8

0.4 003

^0.1

~1.O

232...3

1.15 ^;10

7

3·0

^{60~8 0.2}

^0.6

2.4 ^66.0

^0.2

0·5

11.3 2.2

0-3

3·4

-~ /

36.2

^{\ ~}

2.6

0.0 '-'oj

4·2 ^228.0 o.

)1 2.1

27·8

Juntry

: uri t

i

ua

ganda

Total ornalia -codesis '2union

:ay:zania :_lrundi

. liie-ndo.

:-a12.'di

.

57.

The shortfall between production at --';'l~ sent level and. consumption demE;-,u in 1970 is estimated at 13.4 million :paira of' shoes for this su"b- reglcn. Rhodesian installed production would make the cC--,l"try 581f- sufficient in

1970.

TanzanL, Uganda, Ethiopia and ';'an;bia would need to e st atdLeh new factories in addi tioD to e:.:is:in~,; units tc ae et t.hs con- aumpti o n damand , r:ad&gascar, uhicil .has a factory, Nill require both e xpa ns Lon ani development, Lno Lud.ing local manuf a cture of u~>J)ers, soles and. heels. COl-'!JTetely ne,v factories \,i11 oJe re:,.uired in Somalia, Rwand<l-

Buru:~ii, ~;if,uritius and 1'1a1av/i.

5;). !In .order to ~rojeot t~e :C;;li.;'oer cQoJonent afGlle shoe markst , one has ,,0

oi,::!r

in .rind that the disc:...:rning' wearor voul.d T3:fer leather shoes -~lit'h or ~",:_thaut rul;uer sDles, ^-1:;0 all .pll':Gtic 0:1.' I"U~L'er-canvas shoes. The

':::/'jF.14/n

^t

L{/ 92

Fage 26

c anva s-crubbe r s ho e "has S,"e ci s.I uses such as for tennis⁹ hockey9

gyl:mastics ^2Y1cl drill and school we',r '~JUt this is a fraction of the entire market. The main co nsuiopti o n in'~Jrica isoy ersons who ^H8&.T ashae for the "rirst ti ne, It'ls in ef'f'e c-t the .ri rst Vlctor:yover.1Jare- feet. Once used to shoe-v:'.')'lring,~no ^{d , '} n reverts co baref'e et 3(.ainlm:

he 0'- o ome s wore d.i ace r-rri ng aI"":;' ta.ce s to Hl'.Jre e xpe nsi ve s nd "ior'e so'his- ticated footwear. The main factor for consideration in estimation of the .re Lati ve :perc8n'G<~es of cc:,nvc.G-rubbe:c₉ l.ec-:ther-ru,bber End. Cell 1:1a,.- tic .i.n corsumpti on over a l:,eriocl is the time t ake n f o.r the elEnge-over.

If e xj.er-Le nce in i.sia is a (:,ui.de ⁹ tni s relCe ti ve mcrtcet will -be as f'ol Lous c

Lea~her upper and lo&ther sale add heel Leatae r 'upper and. Tubber sole anu heel Ca nvas- rub be r

F'l.asti c

10

30 40

20

Assuming that 70 ",:e1' cent 0": 'the 13.4 mi Ll Lc n cC2..il'S 'irill nuve

!,

of a I'Qund of r-ubber per iJair, the co ns u.»,'ti on 01' 1'u"oer in thi s mar:ufacture will ~e

3.1

million ~ounds or l~~OO tons.

4~ Retrea,,linr.

59.

11.1 though retr'cadln:; should Logieal-Ly havebsen·C-GDsid.ered Nith t;:,'-re production₉ i t hES been separately rpviewed9 since in the initial stages of development of the 1':.10(81' mar.uf'actur-Lng industrj in a count ry, re- treading is usuai Ly tl1e first UD,i.t o f Eeis industry and i ta1so forms the small nucI aus o n ,,,,hiC,l othe r production - 'pr~r=-ci~.allY"lould.ed c;oodE?

of various t,y})8S and u:Je ~ and. bi(~ycle tyres and t.uoes - 'are established.

'-..,.~

60. J-iost o{ the countries of the suo-re§;lon have r;::;tr2ading plants .with the 1,ossiole e xc e pt i o n of Somalia⁹ R"l'lancia, :3urundi and Re ur.ion, In some count ri es, "~he c:31)dcity is in excess or' the ilemand 2.n,:L this is true in Rhcde.i aa ,,-,E'IT.:.JlE. and Kenya, and it is these countries wnich have units capaoJle of prepc:.rin:,: their OT,,11 co< ou nds sud c ame I bacz da r-e ct Ly from crude r-uboe r , 'l'~'le other co untr-ie s9 'I'anz3~'i::. ~ Uisanda~ Halind, Kaclagascar and 1.1a urit iue~ LJ1port the c ame I vac: r",adily eX'crllded~ 'Gh8 cushion gUlIi