محددات سعر نفط منظمة أوبك في ظل سوق النفط العالمي
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(4) אא ،3و1א א7 ~l3 e>" J bfز _ a " R> bאMbل Sאزن א * -4hא "V5و א5و KO f yز א Vא a "~l3-> zمא& =Sعא* v25א Vא "، m,hNو") S א =2ذ א A- Vא| 4 ,sאد א Vא5وyא J" ¥ = -+S a S #א aVא# V אQ hوאضאAV=2אو&K#. & )7 J3 J1א1986{2)J"<=2و 1999 J1 J3 J1אfز א -V=2א ?1 *\ R Wm 5אfز mא -V=2אfو א7 /-3 ،-> zن JS 1א 4| ~> m JSbfא lfא [ אول א - 2א XxhאhF5 ~v) Q7 ،<=2א=S * & )fא > v-א= ض א Lאدא* א -V=2وز د א 7 ،aV 7ز א-V=2אz zوא{" hy،1986#=-y*7ن| אlfא [אولא<=2v25 F Rدول אfو" v-> :א= ض א a " ،-> * 9 & )fز د א5وض אQ AV=2 א aVא،AV=2وذ Q ,m ~ 2 :אد و א $ Py" ~hد&א FSא7 ،-V=2د9 X א= ض& )7א1096l15.209<=2دو&،,- xو Pو$لא9& )fو1אא،uא=~ sא*אp2y، v->Q ,h<=2و،Mאpאsوא>و>،& - 99 5Wr --و [1אא )fس F-4S[ V$7אfز א-V=2אQ H F>f-hאfز Jאfو/-3Q J-אQh،& l. א aא}N A-sوאMbL "k#لא* -4hא"V5وא5و K<=2O 7 J2 J3 J1ز א~OSW1991L1990¦-Wאقא }و-א "-5אאf* 2-ز 3د " aא* "VOLא-) -א{RV2 FSFאNقאfو)<r3~zא¦-WאF-> z אruאא–-א6G "E19902)~hذ~-R":אS& )fو!"16Jو18دو&,- xאא3. K J3 J3 J1אfز א دא7W-)fد*אfز א ددولr2ق-+S9 -)7 &א[ aVא }ول& -F> yא,bאAא&42A oLא3¤"-)fودאl& hدول ,zא>و> --א{ F_ N>< 1א د#א>M 2 ":m٪15.5Aא{א=د Fb אAאA oLא7"٪7Aن mن2) 42א*٪8rو¨,א= ض 7دو,z - 2$ &mא 4h> "-"2ش~> mR،٪2.5r&Rو_ א>& -Fא د[ #א)?1MF אول Qא }ول &mA=yא >~+"Mz -"2א= ضא)'אمא }ول- 340#7٪15ن " - ,-و A1א HO Q zmfא &1א ,bא Aא A oLو + " xSא &VWول K F>7/-3 OPEPوز*) O7א pد & " -Ry9,z F4mא{pدאدאaVא#2 [א }ول F-yא - ,- "H750Aو زאدא\) fאא= ضא)MFא " -نא180A 9 HO7 - ,- " H7ذ :א Rא) -R" MFאول א &42 " 45א، p- -)f א>و>KKK --א "7 SAmªدאfز وאQh،0Oא& א )Ry 4s QhSw-)f 120.
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(7) ,- "L&دو69.1¤"/-3٪13.1«ل:"و7* b)#2)<א5אP=S&وאK2007x4y> K2007ل مMb 2"#7،2008ل مMb,- x& دو25&אR«:"و7* b)& )7~=S& א2008 م >& R ,- x&دو94.1:"و7#&= لאא¤"/-3AO 5 &>« *א مאR ٪36.2 K2007 م,- x&دو69.1 K2008=< [ א&א م2) &א7 F>F{ د אu *אR| [אM;"- 5ز אf~אR7R Qhw 2008-F9 2008A=> F2 <=2) &א7evF>א#א# [א025 y #7 21Qhw/-3e-y&دو#7ونp'4X و ضوa_Q -V=2 *אقא-) )f * ن7 4m،& )f [א7V= عS&א#7\ و&א--s&M S{א-V=2 אدא*אLאX \و&אXbfא, >~אאm,"K-O 5אY4Wא*א2لאMb,v5 | אQ =S ~Cونp'5א , = عS&L א--s& א{ ~ دو&א, אא:S 617 Q و،<=2) & א7 دu= ع אS&L א:ذ K<=2)אقא [)אf &"א5א <=2) &א7 lg5א, אא617 J2 4-)/-3،aVאضوאA F417Q & )f?א1. אm ~دو&א, א K<)5وאRאX5 م [אWא:"وfאS-4 [ l א41&دو W<=2 [אaVא. J1 J2. h25א-> >L אuא&אR e"RAא }وaVאW<=2 [אaVאHS J1 J1 J2 }yلMbوJ )2 ،- *"}وv2 و7' مm- [אא }وA 2وאA4h אF > -mMF)אض אGf ~> m \ )א،-> >L * אu א:S - S ع و) و9 F" ودj -2 ز Kª9KKK yوא7 & >-"f=<א2א،E-"f=<א2אFJ)وhوא7، & -א:0Qp2 m W F417, " א4 V [אaVدא0W<=2 [אaV אlg5א, אאJ2 J1 J2 ,bدP=S& א4m، אmאlS VאMF)א=د [א,bد# lgWא=د,b )<دJ7 X5 אg x V אQ א=دMF) א$7 /- V אQ emMF) א6v3 P=S&א=د א K- 2אولאQ ,m VאQ א=دMF)& مא7>& R Q :وذN-5א ن79، V)אP -h M"Xb7)#7,z V [אaV <אSW V) &א7 Jr Q1 ن7 3M و، אaV و و> א، V א,s "אWJ [ H aV א [ אl7 ,j V& لM39 Rא=} אa/-3Vא=} אxm7 41lSنhJ א Kb7 אولehFS O7 N U:FS- 2نאولא7لRאk )WA R¦אS 2א,h-1 Jج P ?אول1¦S 2א,h-1 1pm 2لאM3א9 ) )7:ذP وVאQ - 2א * و4-hم وא-25f وאa وאu א2$ $ b ، V H-zm MF) אQ e" p-4S 123.
(8) وא }و 4-mو *و אدא >9,h-1>& R5 "،\ 2جאولא- 2א V-"p-4#א* VRאfو- ,z ،e-א&pא وא')Lאجא{='2א) K V FmMF د Jא42א د#א 9WA5نز د א42א دe 3 S#دא 4sز د א)MFא$ b،AV=2 ,Cא&VאA2hא| ,sא[ m 2"4#א «>& R <=2د&א Vא،Xbf 7 4mنא= ضא42א د* -4h4#א،R "aVو1א7e>Q emن[ lg א42א د،#و"FאTyنאQ1J"Mא Jא ,hy،b. lg,א Kbf. Jא, xW® 25אh > lM ® 25ن[ ?lSאaVא }و - >,-Aو16v2אאl R Qא&+Sد&אuא& [ א&אP=S،2א)MFא Vא Mدא{pدאد F-yאxد א- V"\ Nא uل Qא Mد א ® 25و 3אhא&£אQS m& Tm-- VאrO# א *א 05א m20052)-h fنeאlfא[ hאaVא Q A5א }ول K. y7 J3 J1 J2قאaVא [ A5א<=2 pאلא [ aVد&א Vא ='5אSא،42و Qא7P5ن;,א[ ;y j<=2دو&? א د- S#א* -3א -5אp5א Qא Vא, R5אK&;25و"[ \ 2א& 2-א،A5 א}= #ض "غ )< ل א 42א د #א )7 [ ) R F 2) ٪3.5 U A5س א R אNא،E-sو" }yאض7ن,;Sא& )fא3<=2-ود 60 J50دو&[ ,- xא אد }y א *[ ،א}yאض م3و* ) -) 4-)#1-+S£و -2hSאQ4y، Vא7P5ن P=Sא[ aVא- 83Q <=2ن #Lrم- 11892005ن#Lrل م K2030 7 mن _" aאن 4;2א ون א د #وא"F -42אن א wא ,hN EA 2א~ א Q ٪60Q rR O uא aVא [ A5א ،<=2و Qא7P5ن R«P=Sא&#LrJM 4 ل مK#Lr 539,-، 2030و)lא אنאu "- 2אQ 6; fא& =SعאP5 אaaVא& 2-א F _H -)/-3،A5و- 29Q ,R2ن58Q p 9#Lr -ن K#Lr و Qא7P5ن0Sذא אنא- 2א- 20U[ -)fن:SQ #Lrא pد ،و,zi 1 AzlQ zm7אP-o42א אنא،- 2و Pذ ,;):א -3ج9אMb 1- Vل א=} א$5د ،ول مXQ)،2030א)MFא=دאא3א אنאQ - 2א<=2 א"?;>ehF E<Ry٪20FY4Wאن 4;2א ونوא ،-42. J2 J2אض Qא<=2 HS J1 J2 J2אضא WAV=2אضא }و:SQ & 1Aא* -4hא FO Qh45 و Sد| אق"Jא_fאא 5دEQ}N JJs "FوMbل }yز j-2د 7و K J2 J2 J2אא ,א lg5אضאAV=2 124.
(9) אضא- y#mAV=2و> Nطא دQ "l#אא ,א='5א{ F-417Q S و [ 1lSאض א) AV=2א\ mن ذ :א $ b lو "= 7 -" 9و ) #7 - " pאوא& =Sع7و" 7 2وא= ضوא>KAو?1אא WASf mA1, R J7א&א[ aVאW<=2אJ"MאaVوאض_M A1د m 4m#7نא maVא و pאא *?Tyن &VS[ A" 9?lSضאא-V=2و"& وא)و Vد و1א1وא 3PلאaVא 24 AV=2אK$ 5و9ذא mنא+$aVא7وjودא7و Ty 2ن [ )?lSאضא KAV=2 R Jrא& אא9W-V=2ن Rא&و XאאQ -V=2אא ,א &" lg5 mو[ -) )7אض =S& yKعאوpSא? [ lg py 3 4ز د אض،و Yhذ: 7 2S 3وא= ضא yو&?gد 2S9#وא= ضאض Pא1;3M5אאNن #-+7و gد-+SA "eא-4hא-V=2אv25وא5و،OאX5א° pو- _:m و,hאقא K s ج Jא ) -א }و7 -و ) ) -א >Lج| Wא א [ m lS ,ض א א }و) -א\ " pد 7و " R2ن7و " * zאض Kو ,z4Sא ) -א }و7 -و) ) -א >Lج 9 4א\א* 7F 1'Sو-=-m2- * Fא)M+لאMbQ <=2لא16h0אא &"bfو K$ b &"eO د) JאPא , Wא Nmא 4m<=2د F- 4א -uא : 21~> mNد& ,z Xb7 Vא=،60و" F=- h;2א- +و"$א)'א Fא?& "<=2\vא, د&א P Qh،=hS Vو&אQ pووع7ز *>= $7-Vא 41م אولא25א=h د& _ ,zא Vא -4Nא& א=Yy 2S ~0 $y J R" ) e 419 " J60 א <=2و 1א " ,z F F" Q 6Gא& Eو א Fs b Mbو yא 1sوmא א) |M+ א د و K - 2$ JאJ"y 25א9W<=2Jv25نאقאhAV=2ن QدאJv25و .ول,mدو7وm >=-Vאuل [Q 3xm7אقو [&7ضאאTyPن?1א y 25د "Jدول 4;2 7و":ودول\ 7Gא،4;25و q_,mولא;="Q 3xmאقא9y O9،AV=2 ذTy :ن א7 Qhi y 25ن J" 1دول7 4;2 \ 7و" ، F=> :و J" 4s aR " A1دول א¦-Wא"Aא{:א6'OA_ -3وQ ,s 1א،<=2وא{ .ول"Q 2h-4mxm7P- א,m N Q A> S F>f& )f "6FSAFy<=2א د،و 7،-אولא=-وאV)5 P=S " FS -4mP-"aGSAFyوذ;>:א,m N4א دوא- 5א{ F2 A> Sو" A 7[ aو"":א -3fنyض3א >Lج,hدو ? K. y7 J3 J2 J2قאضאAV=2א* 4±אو - 125.
(10) u Rא 7ن א&د אh) Vن - -y mא aVאRS NS /-3 ،A R5א* א5אA-א79Ah fنא* -_ -3אM')M" Rص72 ~= Sوא,sא،* 2-> 4z 7J3نא >Lجא}אMbA4mل:Sא=} mن/lQ ,7א pد א،RRوPذ 9:א , F2א ، -2hوא) * y Nhא ،0 2وא& =Sع * א)'Mص א }و Q AאRuل א -V=2א ،و [ &7س א Q ,hذpI 21 ،:ون Q 6'Oא=2ط Gא -Rא" R ) Nhوא KV و"[ \ 2א& 2-אP،A5א א7ن 9P=SSאدא*א<=2א Wم & bQج7و"9,: |X [ 7و- 481ن,="#Lrא pدא*א{ h 7Q ASSאF-2-SMאxאز،E $b, و&و) -و pو Qא= ض א ،Xb7 k_ 2 ?FN) #و.א RV2א 4Nل6l ، " 7 Sذ :א= ض א& Aא &א Qم ،2020و Gن ذ FN) :א Lאدא* Q RV2אNقאfو)<و¨ ل -Ry9א&[ =-=_ =SאX5א [3#7<)5م[ 7,،2010 |Xو- 51ن7mK#Lrن 9אدא*א<=2א Wمא Rد GQא& Vfא4;2 \ f 7و"Q :א7P5ن- 45Q M-p 9,Sن #Lrم K2030 T" k 4-y 7אدא* א G <=2א #-Rوאد א #-uא{ Q ASSא אن Gא \ f 74;2و" 1pm}-y،:א )f "P5س [א لא-V=2א،2hא{)FNא&, =S - 59ن #Lrمa2030א& 2-א- 1P >& R ،A5ن #LrمK2005و Q א7 P5ن ,. * -4 42Sא= 60وא +ز ) 9א 150 U Q ,sو - ,- " H7 50 Q ,7 א~ א- 1.5 9 O uن و [ ,- " H7 500אא Aא=} K2030 J2005و) ASS :S- Gא pدא* Qא *א 05א،-h fوא،Jو})7، -Ry9r2א K - FN-) 4mא)'אمאدאpS#-uאא1אbfא Qא\ U7P-ok_ 25א Kwو [ א4مووkyא& 2-א7 o9Pe>Ty،A5ن,Sא Lאدא* Qא=2ط Gא10 9-R -ن «#Lrذ:אدא#-uא Rدم & bQج7و":ل م p"#7،2030د - 8ن#Lr " P >& R5م K2005 . RS J3א42ذجא74;2 <=>)A) -Rو": 9ن -4א& -bא+5א*א{74;2 <=>)lSو"[ 4:א;2א د" & אfو/-3א >4د&א)[ ?1 2א+5א*א W-ض 74;2و"Q :א،<=2אA_ -3 74;2و"Q :א >9،<=2جא& b<=2ج 74;2و"4;2 a_،:א ونא د#وאQ -42 א ،<=2لא42א د KA5 # 126.
(11) . ذج42אRS J1 J3. RSQ |وאe-y lg5א*א+5وא:"و7א4;2 <=>)J"M?אRSאد5ذجא42א,zi K:"وfא4;2 <=>)[ l| אMbQ Qhi{א*א+5א.1ذج42א LPRIX = C(1) + C(2)*LNONOPEC + C(3)*LOFFOPEC + C(4)*LRESOPEC + C(5)*LDEMOECD + C(6)*LTAUXCROI. W/-3. :"و74;25<=2)א6& GW LPRIX :"و74;2 &جb<=2> جא96& GW LNONOPEC <=2אQ :"و74;2 A_ -3א6& GW LRESOPEC <=2אQ :"و74;2 ض6& GW LOFFOPEC <=2אQ -42وא#א ونא د4;2 a_6& GW LDEMOECD A5 א#א د42 لא6& GWLTAUXCROI WA אولא0O A1 4mR¦אs >~> mEVIEWS5¦ >" ل4)T". . LPRIX = 9.05 + 9.64*LNONOPEC + 4.95*LOFFOPEC - 1.51*LRESOPEC (2.19) (9.61) (4.95) (-4,62) 9.61*LDEMOECD – 0.25*LTAUXCROI (-3,63) (-2,69). As 3L א=אJ2 J3 W 3M>X+" *א5אRV"ذج42אRS¦s >لMbQ و. LDEMOECD. ,LRESOPEC ,LOFFOPEC ,LNONOPEC ل2 " ذج42 אw ن7 J. -s 3L"א6-Rنאf،٪5 د2"-s 392 |~" zא0y OL " LTAUXCROI ,f لא43א =?א1K٪5X 2 و±א4-RאQ xm7RV5א4-R "~>د-) 0.05Q 9،. Z٪884-. ?mgS א1و. Z٪89نf -xSR" א*א+4 د5=אS >ن7. J. ?=S ," )א* א&א+ £. {א* א+< אRy ?=S <=2ن ) א7 J S 2? א1 ن7 Kذج42א,bSwXb7*א+ 4-RאQ xm7 F Z58.61# وS{אN-y-s 39نf-m-s 392 eذج42نא7 J Pא" ز4-RאQ xm7و±א4-Rא#7،E5،0.05،33F3&"N-yPوز±א K -s 39 لR ذج42אA "وKN-y DW= 1,46 نSوQ"&د-s 3L 2 " J 4 . 2. 0 ?. ? 127.
(12) نSوQ"&د-s 39#7\ Vbfא-MR)א: 21ن7 3M>نSوQ"&¦دs >لMbQ J"AS طذאS&و مودא7 [ود,- د21Y-ذא9:N אRV2 ,bدאPRSDW= 1,46 K\ Vbfא W Breush-Godfrey & b אJ . W* -O=א. W 3M>E01F6&لאولMbQ K\ VbfאJ"AS طذאS& مودא#7. -O=א, R>. -O=אy>A ". K -s 39 لR ذج42نא7J As 3Lא,-0لאMbQ. W# א=א دJ3 J3 Wن7 2&R5ذجא42אQ =5א*א+5א6-,mنhS 2 e>79NS~" zאuא,z{وאC(1)Z9.05 45 אJ K,- x&دو9.05 ود3نh<=2ن)אTy و 4;2 &جb> ج9+Sذא9e>7J S C(2)Z9.64A1{وא:"وfא4;2 &جb<=2> جא94 J > ج9J"Mنא7#7،3אא,- x& دو9.64rP=S<=2ن)אTy، - ,- "H":"وfא Kא د-3 2אQ R _دوM A1<=2و)א:"وfא4;2 &جb<=2א ن-«<=2אQ 4;25* ضא+Sذא9e>7J S C(3)Z4.95<=2אQ :"وfא4;2 ض4 J ;2אa3א1، _د4F2-"Mא#7,- x&دو4.95r+)<=2نאאTy,- " دVאMאFOو5א-4hز د אe 3 Sنز د אhS 2 e>7لRS{א دא Kא د-3 2אQ R 45אA "وE-4hאوאJ" نאTy,- "ن-«A_ -3L*א+Sذא9e>7J S C(4)Z- 1.51:"و74;2 A_ -3א4 J ،א د-3 2אQ R A1و-h 4F2-"Mא#7,- x&دو- 1.51r='2) 9#دg AV=2ز د אضאA "وAV=2> جאLز دא9#د7AV=2אA_ -3L زאدא4m#7 K<=2) &א7א= ض P=S&ذאא9e>7 J y C(5)Z- 9.61# وS OECD-42وא#א ونא د4;2 a_4 J ,- x& دو- 9.61r='2)نאTy,- "ن-«-42وא#א ونא د4;2 a_ EaV אو אJ" -h אMאF ; א د2 אP kyא א1و-h 4F2-" M א#7 Kא د-3 2אQ R 45نאTyA "و 128.
(13) #א د42 لאP=S&ذאא9e>7J S C(3)Z J0.25 A5 א#א د42 لא4 J xGA1و-h 4F2-"Mא#7,- x& دوJ0.25r='2)نאTy%1rA5 א A5 א#א د42ز د لא£و32 e>":=ذS 22hi،א د-3 2אQ R [ 7* 9AV=2 אF >9Py"v25אولאPvN<=2 [אA5 אaV د אp"4#א K= ضL "& )¡4# אfא،AV=2אaVאQ 4;2 ضFA1ذج42 =5א*א+5نא7J S# دLوא=א-s 3Lلא&א)אMbQ 4;2 a_ ،:"وf א4;2 &جb <=2> ج א9 ،<=2 אQ :"وf א4;2 A_ -3 א،<=2 אQ :"وfא 4;2 <=>& )7. mlS |EA5 # دLא42 لא،<=2אQ -42א ونوא ~> m\)אXb7*א+ ود9NS4-R?א1ن7 4m،. Z٪894-?mgS א1و،:"وfא. Kذج42א,bSw- >و7-4m*א+ א1 ,1 Wאلg) 221 א د د& ذ-3 2 אQ و-s 3L א-3 2 אQ لR ذج42ن א7 « ذج؟42= א5א*א+5א6-y«:وذ:"وfא4;2 <=>"g 2," ذج42א WEshow& bאFAh-|א+ &אb אJ4 J3 )א&א6-RSaV#אAh-|א+ &אbאQ MV>אXb79 }yQ ذج42א+SX x W- אN-y-s 39r & bLא6وJS}y9. Kg 2," وR ذج42نא7لR>و±אQ ,7"אN-y4-~> mذא9 2)919862)Q -> zوא1985919702)Q وfאJS}y9)} א&אy6-RS" 2)[2025 ?אK9+S 3M>/-3E01F6&,hNאJ 5א6)אQ MV>א:وذ2008 K1985 "אP و±אN-y-s 394->& R "وE03F6&אول0O5¦אs 2אQ MV>א ذج42نא7لRאQhie2 و%52 X 2 אوQ xm7N-y-s 394-ن7 >و Qhiدjk>e>7#7،g 2," Gذج42نאTyA "} א&א)وyلMbR G وK F"g 2אa F"=<و2) &א7[ lgSb א, =<>;אد א2) &אfe"g 2א :A1, ?אא1617 وز د دA5 א [א دאm دא4 =<א2 [אaVא4وKWA5 אaV אJ K نhא -)א- 5ز אf وאbfא- 5ز אfא,z * زf?א1,z £و3W-5 ز *א دאf אJ 129.
(14) E1999Fא{ HSא)& 4zא g A5د#א=bא[ aVא<=2وא= ضK?& )7 Jאuوrو$ bאk_ 25א,z W<=2 "-2+אuوRV2 rאNقאfو)< Jאhא&£א,z W-- Vא$ fوאpزل:S$ bא{g <=2v2 k_ 2 rSد9# > Rلא >Lجوز د אK& )f Jא,m N5א=R3-2ل >9جאK<=2 JאRא&א*وא* qא-) -אو,z W-א7ru "Fوyض * "Rא د [دول ,z ،<=2v2א* "Rא{[ R" ) h 7 FOyאאقو9[ - 3אنK Jא,KW* "& 5אض7zm7وאQ ,אg aVد)[Oykb9#قאK<=2 $) Jאو&;>Wא S&Mطא)J"k-lאو&و)א7/-3<=2ن ;6א د* א& vא4"6S-V=2אو&Ty:Kنא= ض7وא& =Sع)אو&)7 )lg-و[ " 9 א د *אولא4-='2S 2yKv25אو&& )7P=SS،א "<=2و& ,;S[3אP Ry )?" &-و [) ,-א z5ل . Jא'W6وذf:نא RאNאP HS-sאKQ p Jد&א Vא hQWن| [ lS#7אX5א7/-3aRنא/lQ zm7<=2 _aא Vא ،A5و7نaG7א* -2Rא')~44$- uאمא<=2وא +ز7J3نא 5د& א زא~" -Vא* /-3Q &Vو* -2RSא)'א . F و"7[ \ 2نאaGאא ,א "ae>Tyg 2" GRא& )7mQFhא<=2אK, R5 א W W 3و1 2אא&א)א{2 ~.A1אن?jدא*)>=< 74;2و"),C:قא<=2א ،?A5. yא+5א*א-) )fא{74;2 <=>).lSو" K: و|אO 6-R" 24عא p7lMl/0א\&V 2VS/-3א && )fAא 4m،<=2 א9 & Lאא ,א& )7 lg5א<=2و& )7WA1א5אدא Vא ،אaVوאضא،AV=2 א >Lجא ،A5א® 25و?1אא A1 1,א"lSXbfא & )7[ GXb7,א<=2 ,zאaVאX«lAV=2א42א د#א KA5 7א\pא 3AR- VوMbQ 2ل_Rא* "5אRSX+ذجqدא+5א*א{lgS [& )7א4;2 <=2אfو":و?1,z4Sא+5א* Fض 4;2אfو"Q :א،<=2אA_ -3 4;2אfو"Q :א >9،<=2جא& b<=2ج 4;2אfو"4;2 a_،:א ونوאQ -42א ،<=2ل א42א د KA5 # وא¦s >'>bfא&א)א R2طא W- MbQلא42ذجא7J S&R5نjدא*74;2 <=>& )7و" WA1:. 130.
(15) a_،،:"و74;2 &جb<=2> جא9،<=2אQ :"و74;2 A_ -3א،<=2אQ :"و74;2 ض KA5 #א د42 لא،<=2אQ -42وא#א ونא د4;2 א1و،<=2) &אfe"g 2אQhiدjk>e>7J SAh-|א+ &אb9\א9"و a F"=<و2) &א7[ lgSb א, ود א9NS{א. Z٪894-?mgS. $ b وrوu א، -5 ز * א د אf א، A5 אaV אW F2 ذج42 א,bS w F" g 2א *א&אR א، <=2> ج א9 لR3 -2= א,m N5 א، -- V א£&אh א، <=2 " -2+ אk_ 25א K אV د&א،6' א،&אو$) ،* "& 5א،-אو-) - *אqوא K, R5=<א2) &א7mQFhאae>Tyg 2" GR" א, אאaGنא7[ \ 2"و WPא5א4s K2003،) אVא،Y¨J ،א }ولkS،A=-= 4jAR$K1. 2. Chems Eddine Chitour : la Politique et le Nouvel ordre Pétrolier international, Edition dahlab,alger , 1995 K 3 Jhttp://taz/ClearanceEMEUEnergyMarkets/cabs/opec.html.11/29/2004 K. ،?sو אA"=<א2) &א7*א+S،[-د&א،,-Wא# دy،p 1Q >&אJ4 E1FאدE29F±א->> R )אمא دوאJ-4א£0 &א) *وאQNS K2007، 5 Jwww.wikipedia.org 04/11/2009K 6 J Igor deckanic and others : A sentry of oil Zagreb , Naklada Zadro publisher,2005K. m ،2003 J1983لMbA" دאL) &א }ول [א7*א+Sl7، -1نوN J7 K2005L2004،sאp א، &N2 G K2003،نlMzא#2א مאJ fאRS،E:"وא7F& }ول5א-" &אVfא4;2 J8 K2005،sאpא،- *אV5دאنא،2004<=2) &א7 &l،#) و5א-\ -O J9 # دuא#2א مאJ fאRS،E:"وא7F& }ول5א-" &אVfא4;2 J10 2004K،نlMzوא وA> zא#2א مאJ fאRS،E:"وא7F& }ول5א-" &אVfא4;2 J11 K2005،نlMzא و/ zא#2א مאJ fאRS،E:"وא7F& }ول5א-" &אVfא4;2 J12 K2006،نlMzא K2007،نlMzوאP"אא#2א مאJ fאRS،E:"وא7F& }ول5א-" &אVfא4;2 J13. 131.
(16) 4;2 J14א & Vfא" -א} &5ول 7Fوא" RS ،E:א J fא م א #2א Y Wو אlMzن،2008،ص 35K ° J15אxאد m ،Aא*א دא }و"، ،Aون) K2 O&o J16אن&VS،א*& )7א<=2وlSא[ FSאא&دא*د&א) 3אpא J1970s ، &N2 G m ،2004אpא Ks J17א= !د> y7،#قא<=2א ،2007A5א<=2وא ونא"،Aא7،~hو"،:א± אא"PوאlMzن،אد K2008\ 124 ¬7 4j J18אو&O j W #א* א د א }و ،Aدאن א * V5א ،-אpא،s K1983 ¬74j J4אو& ،#د´א دא،<=2دא&¨عא،y Rzאpא K2003،s ¬74j J19אو& ،#د´א دא،<=2دא&¨عא،y Rzאpא K2003،s J20א= !د> y7،#قא<=2א ،2007A5א<=2وא ونא"،Aא7،~hو"،:א± אא"PوאlMzن،אد K2008\ 124 k0אאولوא hfلא W-> - אول&RSWE01F6א42ذج"RVא* "5א#+. . . אEVIEWS.5* IW&5. . אول& Breush-Godfrey& b9WE02F6. 132. .
(17) . EVIEWS.5* IW&5א. chow& b9WE03F6&אول. . <=2&)אVSWE01F6&,hNא. . . EVIEWS.* IW&5א. EVIEWS.* IW&5א. . . . 133.
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