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Optimization of control strategies of plant epidemics through a simulation model validated by experiments

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HAL Id: hal-01606295

https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01606295

Submitted on 5 Jun 2020

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Optimization of control strategies of plant epidemics

through a simulation model validated by experiments

Loup Rimbaud, Emmanuel Jacquot, Samuel Soubeyrand, Gael Thébaud

To cite this version:

Loup Rimbaud, Emmanuel Jacquot, Samuel Soubeyrand, Gael Thébaud. Optimization of control strategies of plant epidemics through a simulation model validated by experiments. 1. Rencontres du GdR Ecologie Statistique, Mar 2015, Lyon, France. �hal-01606295�

(2)

Optimization of control strategies of plant epidemics through a simulation

model validated by experiments

Loup Rimbaud

1

, Emmanuel Jacquot

2

, Samuel Soubeyrand

3

, Gaël Thébaud

2

1

Montpellier SupAgro, UMR BGPI, Cirad TA A-54/K, F-34398 Montpellier Cedex 5

2

INRA, UMR BGPI, Cirad TA A-54/K, F-34398 Montpellier Cedex 5

3

INRA, UR 546 Biostatistics and Spatial Processes, F-84914 Avignon Cedex 9

loup.rimbaud@supagro.inra.fr

Management strategies of epidemics are often based on expert opinions rather than

on the formal demonstration that they are, at least in theory, effective. This mainly

results from the complexity of taking into account the biological processes and the

human interventions that both impact disease spread. A promising approach to

overcome these obstacles consists in identifying optimized management strategy

through modeling both the epidemic process and the control measures.

This approach, transposable to many epidemic diseases, is applied on sharka, the most damaging disease of stone fruit trees (especially apricot, peach and plum). It is caused by

Plum pox virus (PPV, genus Potyvirus), a quarantine pathogen in the European Union. A

spatiotemporal model simulating sharka spread in a heterogeneous landscape has been developed. One key hypothesis of this model is the synchrony between incubation (the time between inoculation and symptom expression) and latency (the time between inoculation and infectiousness of the host) for PPV-infected peach trees.

We developed a generic

approach to estimate the mismatch between incubation and latency from repeated

transmission experiments. Then, sensitivity analyses are performed in order to

identify key parameters of both the epidemic process

and the control strategy.

Key words: infectious potential, latent period, Potyviridae, SEIR, stochastic

spatiotemporal simulation model

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